There may never be a vaccine.
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It’s been over 3 weeks now since the Aberdeen outbreak, 200 people confirmed COVID positive, how many of those have become seriously ill? None. Cases are at their highest they have been in months yet there is still only two in intensive care (the same two for weeks now) and no new deaths for goodness knows how long.
If that’s not proof that the virus is substantially weaker now than it was then I’d love to see the reasoning behind it. Everywhere else is opening up yet we want hibs to continue a lock out just for the sake of it.
The virus is definitely not substantually weaker, its the fact most of the folk in Aberdeen were young is the reason theres not alot of folk in IC. Anyone that thinks it is weaker needs their heid looked at. The fact that the majority of Scots have taken the virus seriously and taken the appropriate action is the reason why we havent seen many cases. Its being managed well in Scotland. The rest of Europe are going back into lockdown unless you havent been following the news, and its because of bigger gatherings its happening, ffs.
Caught a bit on Sportsound saying few clubs have been approached to trial crowds before 14th September .
Lesser greens were mentioned but also St Johnstone surely Hibs have been approached as outside the erse cheeks playing next week we have the biggest stadium .
The week after is international break so next weekend only 1 available.
Maybe just a couple of hundred to start with.
Club should be using full stadium, if away team changing in the South let them come out between south / west or south/ east or put temporary porta cabin outside the ground for them .
Will take a while to build up crowds , could go down to 1m distancing like pubs , masks compulsory. Sanitiser everywhere . Time slots for getting in and staggered exit. Going to be a long time to get anywhere near normal whatever that will be and could be a fair bit of hassle getting into games then it will be individuals choice if they want to go.
Hopefully a vaccine soon to get life back to normal
Just been reading 200 fans were allowed into a local non league game near me today.
Think it was a friendly and they sold tickets out for it.
Ground is one that has a small seated stand and standing by a railing all way round.
Scotland has basically opened back up completely now, very little still to open, outbreaks are happening everywhere, Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Perth, Aberdeen, Dumfries. Your not telling me that every single case has been a ‘young person’. Intensive care patients hasn’t been above 3 I don’t think in god knows how long.
They’re still positive cases though. That’s my point. How the outbreak happened doesn’t matter, it’s the fact that we have all these cases yet absolutely no change in the top line numbers of ICU patients and deaths. That tells me something has changed somewhere.
You suggested that the positive cases were all young people. They are not. About half the cases today are Coupar Angus. 2 weeks ago they were Aberdeen. These are contained within the location by trace and protect.
The fact that the ICU number is stable is because the cases are not serious. Otherwise healthy individuals.
I never said that at all, someone else said that. However, we’ve seen previously that healthy individuals aren’t immune from the severity of it and ultimately dying from it. My point is, why is it now different? Why are the cases not serious? Healthy and young isn’t a reason as we’ve been told previously.
The way I see this working... fwiw..
The super computer picks ST seats, allowing for physical distancing. I.e. 5 seats free between people and every other row.
These ST holders are notified- told they must sit in their ST seat.
Fans are told to wear face coverings.
Staff with handheld scanners man the exit doors, you hold out your card, they scan it. No contact. Or you use turnstiles and tell people to sanitize as soon as they walk thru the turnstile.
No food or drink for sale.
No away fans. Equals no real need for police.
Go straight to seat. Could even tell folk to arrive in 20 minute windows. 2.00-2.20pm, 2.20-2.40pm, 2.40-3.00pm?
Just some musings on this..
I've been thinking about the need for face coverings and I answered someone else recently by saying of course I would wear one if it allows me to get to games again and that still stands.
However I've been reading about other industries which are opening up again (for example bingo which is obviously inside and higher risk) and whilst you are seated in the bingo hall, no face covering is required, you only need one as you're travelling through the building and obviously coming into closer contact with people.
Would a face covering really be required whilst you are in your seat, outside and well away from anyone outside your household group?
Away season ticket holders should be allowed in to home games. Easy to socially distance 200 people in the east stand. Most valuable fans should be rewarded.
Nobody is shielding anymore as far as I understand. Overall numbers are down, however taking the 200 cases in Aberdeen or the 100+ in Perthshire, those are big numbers for very little impact to be had. The healthcare part is one I understand and kinda the point I’m making, due to this should we be less worried about it? I’m no scientist so can only take the simple view based on figures, but to me more is opening up, due to this we are getting spikes in numbers, however those numbers aren’t translating into serious health concerns including ICU/death increases.
Jason Leitch said a number of months ago in a Scottish FA Q&A that at some point we may/will have to live with this virus the same as the flu, common colds etc. Is that time now? In my view the numbers would seem to say so.
I think its more nuanced than that.
What is being reported as "spikes" at the moment are not really translating into large numbers in hospitals / ICU and on to deaths - you touched on this a few posts up.
We are now able to test and trace far better than we could at the absolute peak - when hospital admissions and deaths were about the only data we had.
In all probability the infection rates all over Europe at the peak this year were enormous and much larger than anyone was reporting (because we simply didnt have the capability to test and count them properly).
i.e. a report of 200 people infected in April could have actually been 2000 or more as everyone was flailing about in the dark.
We are now - even with the Aberdeen / Cupar / Dumfries outbreaks - in a position where the numbers infected and traced / isolated are much more manageable and are far more accurate than a few months back.
The government / health service seems quite comfortable with the current situation but it will be baby steps toward anything with big crowds, even outdoors.
Agree, but I suppose there is a difference between the two examples you give. In the latter, it's the players choice that they 'cuddle' each other. In the former, it's the FA who are saying we're not going to have a 'losers' medal collection to minimise the likelihood of Covid-19 spreading, albeit a very low likelihood.
It wouldn't be your ST seat as that wouldn't maximise the use of the stadium. Instead those attending would have an allocated seat.
And staggered entry times wouldn't work. People don't want to be told to arrive by 2:20 to sit around for 40 minutes and how would you deal with that person turning up at 2:55?
Other than that, these are all practical suggestions.
They had still been getting close to each other during the game, at corners and free kicks etc. Every single player in both squads had been regularly tested for weeks, it was one of the requirements which allowed them to start playing again. It was totally pointless to stop Chelsea from picking up their medals on the pitch.
If they weren't allowed to cuddle each other at full time, why did the FA not charge the clubs for breaking the protocols?
I noticed that the officials at the golf tournaments all wear masks outside.I expect it makes them feel more secure.The players only wear one when they go to hand their card in.
I agree all great practical suggestions, the problem comes when you introduce people to the equation. As we have already seen far too many people think they know better, disagree with rules so will ignore them, have an excuse not to comply, get bevvied before they arrive so you can’t tell them anything, are just general ****** idiots. 😁 It’s going to a challenge for all clubs.
From what ive seen staggered entry times will be happening down south. Thats probably the most complex part of fans returning. if for example hibs were to go 3 down at home, how are you stopping people leaving the ground at the same time? Segregation in seats should be fairly easy to police if its limited numbers. Even staggered entry getting into the ground if its just the hour before; people will probably accept getting there 45 mins before if they're getting to see a game in the flesh imo. But leaving the stadium is going to cause problems
Given how we've played the last few games, what's the chances of fans wanting to go back in September?
And we're off again....
:wink:
As long as we are back in August for the flag unfurling.
What happened after the infections is neither here nor there, that stopped further infections. 200 people tested positive, they had the virus, none of them have ended up in ICU or died from it, hence my questions about the severity of it now. Take those 200, 100+ in Perthshire, the outbreaks in Lanarkshire and Dumfries then I’d have thought at least one of those would have got seriously ill going on what happened back in April/May.
My point was completely about how many infections there were.
TBF Nobody actually wants a runners up medal anyway.
J
Email just issued by SRU, from a friend
Club has now emailed. ST holder ballot, preference given to those closest to BTM, tickets sold in pairs. Ballot on Wed, tickets emailed to the lucky 700 on Thurs. Various sensible conditions - masks, 2m distancing, only household together etc.no away supporters by looks of things
Miami dolphins, aware this is a different sport and country :greengrin , allowing 13,000 into their stadium in September for the start of the NFL season.
Poland is allowing 50% capacity in the stadiums for the new season after going with 25% at the end of the last one.
They were nuts enough to vote for Trump and probably will do so again (Florida and the USA), so lets not base our decisions on their logic. That said I think if there is no material increase in Covid related deaths once the schools and colleges have been back for month or so, we will see a return to normal or very near to it.
The CMO was asked a pretty similar question to this at today's briefing and he said the virus wasn't changing and the fact that we're seeing less hospital admissions now is that most of the cases just now are in younger people. He also mentioned that the strain circulating in Europe just now appears to be more transmissible than it was a few months ago.
I still don’t know what your point is? You think the virus is weaker? Is that your point? It isn’t weaker, it’s because the people being exposed to it at the moment are younger, more able bodied people more capable of repelling it without further consequences. It’s evidence that lockdown, masks, shielding etc has been working but it also shows just how easily things can unravel.
Why put all the hard work we have all put in at risk for football when we already have it back? I’d love to be at games right now, but it’s not worth it, I still want to see loved ones, and I can watch Hibs on the tv. If that has to do then so be it.
They aren’t all young though, that’s just plain facts, and even if they were there were still youngsters supposedly seriously ill and in ICU back at the height of it. Your not telling me that out of all of the recent cases (probably into the high hundreds), that not one person ended up in ICU or died, and the virus is exactly the same as it was previously. Very few positive cases are showing symptoms these days also.
I don’t know if it’s weaker, hence why I’m asking the question, however looking at the bare facts in front of us it would be an extremely hard thing to argue against.
Your talking about what we’re doing to stop spreading the virus, I’m talking about the already positive tests and the outcomes of those, every single person recovering.
See Sir David Grays reply above mine for what the CMO has said. I think I’ll take his opinion over your interpretation of the numbers.
The worldwide evidence would suggest you’re wrong. Changed behaviours have meant we have seen fewer cases in areas that have already been hit, but these places are seeing rocketing numbers of cases as things start to reopen. Then look around the world to South America we’re Argentina recorded 8,000 new cases in 24hrs the other day.
I think we're in for a long wait before crowds of any significant size return.
With secondary schools set to introduce masks because of crowding when moving between classes I'm struggling to see how closely packed football crowds could possibly return any time soon. At least within schools any infection would, by and large, be within a community, but football fans can potentially come from all over the country.
I also note it's believed that pupils shouting to each other when moving between classes creates a higher risk of infection. Many folk shout or sing their way through football matches. Would that be allowed? Hard to imagine - although I guess singing/shouting with a mask on would be a challenge in itself!
‘Most of the cases are in younger people’ - so does that mean that no young person will end up in ICU, or die now? Which is completely different from a few months ago where young people ended up in ICU and died. And although most were young, they weren’t all young, so how come the older ones who tested positive aren’t getting seriously ill?
We will be back at the football anyway. I’m sure they’ll release their stats of the ages who have transmitted the virus in the last month and a half since the last COVID positive death. Since then we’ve probably had 1000 positive tests, yet absolutely none of them ended up in ICU or died. Like I say, either the hospital treatments are better, or they’ve got a miraculous cure for it, or it is weaker.
I've decided that I'll be going to every home game from September, whether they change the rules or not.
I've worked out which part of the wall in the North East corner is the easiest to climb over and I'll be sitting in my seat waiting for the game to start, flask and sandwiches in hand
:I'm waiti
Could it perhaps be that the NHS has had months of practice and are better able to treat the virus? I’m not the one to ask those questions, I’m not a doctor or a health professional.
Your point was that the virus has gotten weaker, the CMO says it hasn’t, the worldwide evidence says it hasn’t, you’re taking a tiny sample size and saying these people aren’t dying so that’s evidence that the virus is weaker when in reality the people that are going out to pubs are not vulnerable and our healthcare system is better placed to handle them. That’s why we’re not seeing the levels of deaths we were seeing.
Our hospitals were never bursting at the seams. There was always capacity to deal with it. It’s not that we’re not seeing the levels of deaths, we aren’t seeing any deaths whatsoever. And to say vulnerable people aren’t going to pubs isn’t true, I’ve seen many over 60’s (just one strand of ‘vulnerable’) in pubs. But like I said, it wasn’t just vulnerable people dying and getting seriously ill, as we kept being told. Many healthy, young people also lost their lives we were told. Of course the risk is greater for the vulnerable group, but I’d say that group are out more now than they were then, after all they were shielding back then and aren’t now.
Like I said, I’d love to see the figures of ages broken down from our positive cases list.
The English CMO said there isn’t enough evidence to say its weakening, not that it isn’t, just that they can’t prove that it is.
Capacity and experience are not the same thing. The point is that there’s been months of experience built up as well as people using preventative and precautionary techniques to stop the virus spreading so everyone is better placed to deal with it.
I’m seeing it with my local, people aren’t taking the precautions after a few pints which is why I’m not setting foot in a pub until we have a vaccine.
Anyway, the point of this is how quickly will we see fans back in games, but I think the clamour to get supporters back is a step too far, regardless of the levels within stadiums. We have football back, let’s not risk it, give it a bit more time and wait and see if a vaccine comes out in the next year or so.
And to get actual data rather than plucked figures from the air.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/jun/11/who-does-coronavirus-kill-in-england-and-wales-visualising-the-data
Unfortunately there's plenty of things that we still can't or shouldn't do.
It's the middle of August in Edinburgh, there's a plethora of events that would usually be on which aren't.
You shouldn't meet with more than 8 people inside or 15 outside, and you shouldn't go within 2 metres of someone who doesn't live in your house. These restrictions make things very difficult for a lot of different things - it's not just football, which has had a bit of dispensation in order to be allowed to play at all for TV.
If that happens it won’t because football has allowed fans back in, it’ll be because there is a much wider issue. Why should football not be afforded the same opportunity as other industries in terms of getting people back through the door, if it is deemed that it can be done safely?
Football, also, doesn’t need to stop if there is a localised lockdown, Aberdeen played whilst restrictions were in place up there and the games they did have postponed were only because some of their own players were implicated.
Almost nobody is paying attention to that rule anymore.
I've noticed a difference in my daily walks in the park or visits to the local cafe or wherever, and it's like most people have given up on distancing (mask or no mask).
Almost everybody wears a mask in shops* but aside from that it's like there was no virus.
* In my experience, shop staff are the worst offenders for ignoring the rule. Not every shop, but almost every small grocers locally
“Not a single Glasgow fan will be allowed into their @pro14 game v Edinburgh at BT Murrayfield on Friday. All 700 supporters will be from Edinburgh season ticket holder data base who live nearest BT Murrayfield due to Covid restrictions.“
Apologies if covered already but SRU restricting numbers and issuing tickets based on who lives closest to the ground.
As someone who lives on Lochend road I wholeheartedly back this idea should Hibs decide to use a similar system 😂
I’m using a laughing emoji but I can quite imagine just how raj people will go if we do use the same system. Hopefully there’s another fairer way of doing it.
CONFIRMED
The UEFA Super Cup, on 24 September in Budapest, will be played with a reduced number of spectators – up to 30 % of the capacity of the stadium - in order to study precisely the impact of spectators on the UEFA Return to Play Protocol.
This is very interesting.
I think the best we can hope for - for Cup Semi in late October is something like this. But it would need to be Murrayfield given stadium far easier to handle social distancing and importantly it would limit travel significantly. Would allow c20k fans which would make a difference.
Has the SFA confirmed Hampden must be used or not?
I dont envisage any way in which they could play the semi at Hampden infront of fans who have travelled from Edinburgh when theres a stadium in Edinburgh (with a higher capacity) that could do the job for 1 game at least.