Scottish Independence

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Originally Posted by G B Young

Agree about the utter crapness of the Scotsman website but Wilson doesn't say any of the things you mention. He just sums up the case for the majority of the 'people of Scotland' (to borrow from the SNP mantra) who find the incessant barrage about independence utterly wearisome and have no issue with being Scottish and British.

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Since when did Brian Wilson speak for the majority and what is the point of pasting and copying a link from an individual who doesn't just disagree with the SNP but hates them with a vengeance (i.e. - where is the balance).

What he is saying is that BritNats like him find talk about Independence wearisome, he has absolutely zero evidence to support the argument that the majority find the topic wearisome.

I haven't read the article and don't intend to but can guarantee it will not be remotely close to balanced. This a guy who is happy to support Irish Nationalism but can't bring himself to say anything positive about Scottish Nationalism or the SNP.

He, like you, is happy with another 5 years of Tory Governance with a leader in situ who is nothing more than a self serving, cock.

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Originally Posted by Skol

Of course I am not. However the primary message from the SNP was Anti Brexit / Stop the Tories and they sought vote from people who would vote no in order to get the scottish voice heard at Westminster.

If the SNP want to build a case for Independence, they should get their heads down and make a success of running the country with what they have.

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I like many others happen to think that the SNP are doing a good job in very difficult circumstances. That, presumably, is why the keep being re-elected.

The best analogy I've heard is that the Scottish Government is like a golfer being asked to play a round of golf (and score) with one club.

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Originally Posted by Skol

Neither did I. And I noted 4 of the 12 were for more devolved powers.

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Brilliant. It looks like they covered all bases.

Brexit, independence, and devolved issues.

What a team. 🏆

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Originally Posted by Skol

But they didnt stand for independence,. They stood on an anti brexit ticket.

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You might want to tell them then, as it seems to have taken precedence over Brexit in their manifesto, being the key point on the first page and their very first key pledge. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...a0273d0678.jpg

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Originally Posted by Skol

So you started reading at no 2 ?

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That's the BBC spin on it, if you read the actual manifesto then you would have to start at no. 2 for your point to be accurate.

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Originally Posted by Skol

For me the SNP have to demonstrate that we can have the vision they talk of. There is no point getting more when you dont make the best of what you have.

They need to bring the country together and not divide it.

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Reading today that the UK government may not present a budget until March, this impacts the Scottish government setting its budget because they need to know what the annual settlement will be.

Treasury just told them to make it up based on the last settlement.

The office for budget responsibilities says that the delay in the UK budget will have many years of negative impact.

Maybe you could explain what the Scottish government can do to mitigate against this latest clusterburarch by Westminster?

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Funny how unionists are are complaining about the first past the post system these days.
Fact is the SNP are winning elections in Scotland and the prize for that is they represent Scotland. When Sturgeon speaks, she speaks for Scotland whether you like it or not.


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By that token when Johnson speaks he speaks for the UK, which Scotland is a part of no matter how much some may wish it wasn't.

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Originally Posted by allmodcons

Since when did Brian Wilson speak for the majority and what is the point of pasting and copying a link from an individual who doesn't just disagree with the SNP but hates them with a vengeance (i.e. - where is the balance).

What he is saying is that BritNats like him find talk about Independence wearisome, he has absolutely zero evidence to support the argument that the majority find the topic wearisome.

I haven't read the article and don't intend to but can guarantee it will not be remotely close to balanced. This a guy who is happy to support Irish Nationalism but can't bring himself to say anything positive about Scottish Nationalism or the SNP.

He, like you, is happy with another 5 years of Tory Governance with a leader in situ who is nothing more than a self serving, cock.

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A balanced response to an article you haven't read :wink:

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Originally Posted by Just Alf

It's a fair point, these people will then surely vote for a party that doesn't want to put the electorate through another referendum, that will put it to bed until a vote at some point in the future where the party wanting a referendum gets a majority again.

Basically for those not wanting a referendum all they need to do is vote that way and win at the next Holyrood elections and the idea's stone dead for a while.

Until then though.......


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The usual problem there is that while the SNP are a minority government at Holyrood, unless those who vote for opposition parties can be persuaded to vote for only one party at a Holyrood election the SNP will continue to divide and rule ie what you suggest is simply not going to happen.

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Originally Posted by G B Young

By that token when Johnson speaks he speaks for the UK, which Scotland is a part of no matter how much some may wish it wasn't.

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Which what, over rules the devolved administrations?

Whatever happened to equals?

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Originally Posted by G B Young

By that token when Johnson speaks he speaks for the UK, which Scotland is a part of no matter how much some may wish it wasn't.

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Correct. Some of us wish to change this though.


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"they didn't stand for independence"

Surely unionists don't actually believe there are voters out there that don't have a clue that the SNP stands for independence?

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Originally Posted by G B Young

By that token when Johnson speaks he speaks for the UK, which Scotland is a part of no matter how much some may wish it wasn't.

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Precisely because Johnson speaks for the UK, which Scotland is a part of, that increasing numbers in Scotland wish it wasn't.

Independence if it comes will be a seismic event for the country with a huge period of uncertainty. For this reason I feel that having another referendum decided on a simple majority is wrong. I personally feel that you have to have a significant majority. Why?

Independence will almost certainly lead to a significant fall in living standards at least in the medium term. Scotland if it wants to be part of the EU will need to bring the deficit down from 7% to under 3% over time. To be fair it is declining, coming down from 8.1% the previous year. A hard border with England seems very likely. There is the difficult question of what currency we would have. There will be a large cost in setting up all of the institutions that we need. Businesses will be reluctant to invest until there is certainty here.

The SNP have convincingly won elections but opinion polls have consistently shown that a minority of the population want independence. Brexit has been a hugely divisive issue in this country and I think these divisions will get worse particularly if we feel to reach a deal with the EU. The issue of independence is similar in many ways with very strong feelings on both sides. For all of these reasons I feel it is important to have a significant majority in favour to go ahead with independence.

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Originally Posted by goosano

Independence if it comes will be a seismic event for the country with a huge period of uncertainty. For this reason I feel that having another referendum decided on a simple majority is wrong. I personally feel that you have to have a significant majority.

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In normal times I'd agree with you completely. But these are not normal times. You can't allow the monumentally stupid decision to leave the EU to be made on a simple majority and then not apply the same criteria to the eminently sensible decision to decide on Scottish independence.

The original mistake was allowing the simple majority for the criminal EU referendum; to move the goalposts for #indyref2 would be to compound that error.

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Originally Posted by goosano

Independence if it comes will be a seismic event for the country with a huge period of uncertainty. For this reason I feel that having another referendum decided on a simple majority is wrong. I personally feel that you have to have a significant majority. Why?

Independence will almost certainly lead to a significant fall in living standards at least in the medium term. Scotland if it wants to be part of the EU will need to bring the deficit down from 7% to under 3% over time. To be fair it is declining, coming down from 8.1% the previous year. A hard border with England seems very likely. There is the difficult question of what currency we would have. There will be a large cost in setting up all of the institutions that we need. Businesses will be reluctant to invest until there is certainty here.

The SNP have convincingly won elections but opinion polls have consistently shown that a minority of the population want independence. Brexit has been a hugely divisive issue in this country and I think these divisions will get worse particularly if we feel to reach a deal with the EU. The issue of independence is similar in many ways with very strong feelings on both sides. For all of these reasons I feel it is important to have a significant majority in favour to go ahead with independence.

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Sometimes it can be a good thing for there not being a majority government at Holyrood, as it was designed that way.

An example of where opposition parties have defeated the SNP: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-50885438

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Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns

Sometimes it can be a good thing for there not being a majority government at Holyrood, as it was designed that way.

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It often appears that many media commentators don't seem to appreciate this.

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Originally Posted by G B Young

A balanced response to an article you haven't read :wink:

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Some 'writers' do not deserve the time of day. He's a very sad, bitter individual is Brian Wilson.

You still have answered my question as to how you think he knows he's speaking for the majority.

Where in the EU rules does it say the deficit has to be under 3% for EU membership?

Serious question as I've looked and can't find it.

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Originally Posted by CloudSquall

Where in the EU rules does it say the deficit has to be under 3% for EU membership?

Serious question as I've looked and can't find it.

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https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s...rowth-pact.asp

The 3% deficit limit is also a requirement within the convergence criteria for any new members joining the EU's monetary union and for adopting the euro as currency, as agreed by the member states in Maastricht in 1991.

It is a significant amount. The 2008 crisis lnocked almost 5% off GDP if I remember rightly

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Originally Posted by goosano

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s...rowth-pact.asp

The 3% deficit limit is also a requirement within the convergence criteria for any new members joining the EU's monetary union and for adopting the euro as currency, as agreed by the member states in Maastricht in 1991.

It is a significant amount. The 2008 crisis lnocked almost 5% off GDP if I remember rightly

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The SGP has never been enforced.

Scotland as a new accession state would require to sign up to Maastricht and thus technically be committed to join the Eurozone and in turn subject to the 3% target, but that's never been enforced either.

Having said all that, an Indy Scotland would have to have sustainable public finances and a 3% deficit is a reasonable medium term target. The EU would no doubt expect us to have a plan to get there.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

The SGP has never been enforced.

Scotland as a new accession state would require to sign up to Maastricht and thus technically be committed to join the Eurozone and in turn subject to the 3% target, but that's never been enforced either.

Having said all that, an Indy Scotland would have to have sustainable public finances and a 3% deficit is a reasonable medium term target. The EU would no doubt expect us to have a plan to get there.

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What’s really criminal is that there is not a plan to get us there now? A cynic might think that the Unionists wanted us to keep a high deficit to make Scots afraid of independence? I’m probably just paranoid because of the glee with which the GERS figures are met with in the unionist community.


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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

The SGP has never been enforced.

Scotland as a new accession state would require to sign up to Maastricht and thus technically be committed to join the Eurozone and in turn subject to the 3% target, but that's never been enforced either.

Having said all that, an Indy Scotland would have to have sustainable public finances and a 3% deficit is a reasonable medium term target. The EU would no doubt expect us to have a plan to get there.

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It beggars belief to think we can continue with the same level of expendure if we want to join the EU. It is all about a country living within its means. That is the bottom line. The Uk runs at 1.1% above GDP Scotland 7%.
Look at the table below and you'll see almost all countries are near or within the 3%, even Greece and Italy

I'm not necessarily against independence but it will mean a real economic haircut to get there. That is the reality


https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/ta...pcode=teina200

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Originally Posted by goosano

It beggars belief to think we can continue with the same level of expendure if we want to join the EU. It is all about a country living within its means. That is the bottom line. The Uk runs at 1.1% above GDP Scotland 7%.
Look at the table below and you'll see almost all countries are near or within the 3%, even Greece and Italy

I'm not necessarily against independence but it will mean a real economic haircut to get there. That is the reality


https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/ta...pcode=teina200

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Maybe we just won't need to use the fancy stylist or hair products?

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Originally Posted by goosano

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s...rowth-pact.asp

The 3% deficit limit is also a requirement within the convergence criteria for any new members joining the EU's monetary union and for adopting the euro as currency, as agreed by the member states in Maastricht in 1991.

It is a significant amount. The 2008 crisis lnocked almost 5% off GDP if I remember rightly

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To be fair this is specifically about the monetary union element, this isn't directly a requirement to join the EU, it comes into force when any country in the EU wants to physically join the Euro monetary union.

The whys, wherefore's and best practice of being near to that 3% is a whole other argument mind.



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Originally Posted by goosano

It beggars belief to think we can continue with the same level of expendure if we want to join the EU. It is all about a country living within its means. That is the bottom line. The Uk runs at 1.1% above GDP Scotland 7%.
Look at the table below and you'll see almost all countries are near or within the 3%, even Greece and Italy

I'm not necessarily against independence but it will mean a real economic haircut to get there. That is the reality


https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/ta...pcode=teina200

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Not sure why we diverged so much from the rest of the UK?
Seemed to happen just after first indyref was announced?


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Not sure why we diverged so much from the rest of the UK?
Seemed to happen just after first indyref was announced?


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Mostly the big fall in the oil price.

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Originally Posted by goosano

It beggars belief to think we can continue with the same level of expendure if we want to join the EU. It is all about a country living within its means. That is the bottom line. The Uk runs at 1.1% above GDP Scotland 7%.
Look at the table below and you'll see almost all countries are near or within the 3%, even Greece and Italy

I'm not necessarily against independence but it will mean a real economic haircut to get there. That is the reality


https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/ta...pcode=teina200

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Sounds like Scotland within the UK is being run terribly with that level of deficit? Not sure why that is an argument for staying in the UK? Does the UK govt have a plan to fix this or do we just carry on?


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Originally Posted by allmodcons

Some 'writers' do not deserve the time of day. He's a very sad, bitter individual is Brian Wilson.

You still have answered my question as to how you think he knows he's speaking for the majority.

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He doesn't claim to be speaking for the majority, just points out that based on those members of the Scottish electorate who voted in the general election comfortably more than half did not vote SNP.

I don't claim to know a lot about Brian Wilson so I'm happy to defer to your greater awareness of his character, but in this particular article I didn't detect any obvious bitterness. Just some sentiments which rang true for me and, I imagine, most of those who see no need for another independence referendum.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Sounds like Scotland within the UK is being run terribly with that level of deficit? Not sure why that is an argument for staying in the UK? Does the UK govt have a plan to fix this or do we just carry on?


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It has more to do with the Barnett formula. Scotland is allocated more funds because of high levels of deprivation. So it is not poor management by the Scottish government. But the bottom line is if we go independent public spending will have to be cut by about £1500 per person.

Oil these days is not such a big factor. About 0.7% of GDP.