US Election 2020

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Originally Posted by Vault Boy

All joking aside this is a perfect example of why the American political structure is in *some* ways very admirable. It mitigates against unconstitutional acts very strongly and holds its president to account rather thoroughly. It's exactly why Trump never could pull a Putin, for example.

Of course there are many more inherent problems with persisting with the legal doctrine of a ~250 year old document, however ultimately I think 4 year terms, a constitution, an elected head of state and a secular democracy are all rather good things, many of which the UK would benefit from adopting.

That was quite a tangent from myself. Next debate is 7th Feb in New Hampshire. Looking forward to Yang being back on the stage.

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The American constitution appears not to be as good a safeguard against a potential slide into dictatorship as they thought. Trump appears to be able to avoid any censure at all from Congress just by obstructing witnesses and by controlling the DoJ.



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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

The American constitution appears not to be as good a safeguard against a potential slide into dictatorship as they thought. Trump appears to be able to avoid any censure at all from Congress just by obstructing witnesses and by controlling the DoJ.



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He can as long as he has the complicity of the individual Republican senators. If they don't break ranks he is home free. If they do it gets interesting.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

The American constitution appears not to be as good a safeguard against a potential slide into dictatorship as they thought. Trump appears to be able to avoid any censure at all from Congress just by obstructing witnesses and by controlling the DoJ.



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I get your point OH but I think it's important to note that it was a house of Congress that impeached him, I think that's more significant than being censured. There's definitely an issue with a president being able to pick and choose supreme court judges but.

Almost certainly looking at Biden vs Trump.

Battle of the septuagenarians.

Seems pretty inconsequential at the moment, but Sanders officially dropped out yesterday. Biden vs Trump.

Looks increasingly likely that it'll be 4 more years of him.

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Originally Posted by Vault Boy

Seems pretty inconsequential at the moment, but Sanders officially dropped out yesterday. Biden vs Trump.

Looks increasingly likely that it'll be 4 more years of him.

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Posted on the other thread that I am still uncertain that Andrew Cuomo wouldn’t manage to win a floor vote at the Democratic convention, if he has the desire. I think it is unlikely but it is also a fast moving dynamic. Two weeks ago I would have said no chance, one week ago I would have said maybe, today I would be saying a definite possible or a possible definite. Joe Biden is the presumptive and fairly so, but Cuomo could be seen as the younger guy, with momentum.

So as long as the internet doesn’t lose the memes about Biden and Obama talking about Trump then I will survive!

A possible clincher could be the choice of running mate. I would like to see Kamala Harris on the ticket. A woman as VP would be great. Harris probably brings California, but to be honest Biden or Cuomo do that anyway. The smart choice is to tack to the south and pick up a VP who might swing Florida. Or flip it north and ask who will swing Ohio or Michigan. There are a couple of governorial and senatorial picks in the region who make it very interesting. The other issue is whether Trump sticks with Pence. Pence is a strict conservative Republican And he hasn’t actually done anything too wrong as VP. I am not sure what he has done as VP. He does keep the religious right onside for Trump so he is a firewall. Electorally, he doesn’t offer anything much in the swing states IMO.

That opens up the swing states to an extent, because the Republicans seem reluctant to go with a ticket where, for the sake of argument, they have a woman, black or Latino VP.

Presidential elections in America are similar to the UK and often depend on key states or constituencies. Makes them fascinating.

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Originally Posted by Vault Boy

Seems pretty inconsequential at the moment, but Sanders officially dropped out yesterday. Biden vs Trump.

Looks increasingly likely that it'll be 4 more years of him.

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I don't think so. Biden is well ahead in polling and it's not like either of them are unknowns. A certain amount of gaffery will be priced in.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

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Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye

Posted on the other thread that I am still uncertain that Andrew Cuomo wouldn’t manage to win a floor vote at the Democratic convention, if he has the desire. I think it is unlikely but it is also a fast moving dynamic. Two weeks ago I would have said no chance, one week ago I would have said maybe, today I would be saying a definite possible or a possible definite. Joe Biden is the presumptive and fairly so, but Cuomo could be seen as the younger guy, with momentum.

So as long as the internet doesn’t lose the memes about Biden and Obama talking about Trump then I will survive!

A possible clincher could be the choice of running mate. I would like to see Kamala Harris on the ticket. A woman as VP would be great. Harris probably brings California, but to be honest Biden or Cuomo do that anyway. The smart choice is to tack to the south and pick up a VP who might swing Florida. Or flip it north and ask who will swing Ohio or Michigan. There are a couple of governorial and senatorial picks in the region who make it very interesting. The other issue is whether Trump sticks with Pence. Pence is a strict conservative Republican And he hasn’t actually done anything too wrong as VP. I am not sure what he has done as VP. He does keep the religious right onside for Trump so he is a firewall. Electorally, he doesn’t offer anything much in the swing states IMO.

That opens up the swing states to an extent, because the Republicans seem reluctant to go with a ticket where, for the sake of argument, they have a woman, black or Latino VP.

Presidential elections in America are similar to the UK and often depend on key states or constituencies. Makes them fascinating.

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If the Dems don't win California, then we might as well start planning for the apocalypse! :greengrin

The key states will be the rust belt; Ohio, Penn, Wisconsin, Michigan; Florida (as ever) and the South-but-not-deep-south; North Carolina, Virginia etc.

Although Biden is establishment Dem, I don't think he'll have the problems the deeply unpopular Hillary had in getting the vote out in the swing states. A bland, benign, anti-Trump figure is probably what they need.

Having watched a fair bit of Biden over the last few weeks I would be shocked if he wasn’t suffering from a very mild form of Alzheimer’s or something similar. The amount of times he finds it impossible to get a sentence out or jumbles his words is staggering for a man apparently in full health. He looks lost so much of the time. I want to say American deserves better than Trump or Biden but I’m not even sure they do anymore.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

I don't think so. Biden is well ahead in polling and it's not like either of them are unknowns. A certain amount of gaffery will be priced in.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

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Trump campaign have already been pushing the health angle against Biden.

Wouldn't be surprised at all if Trump won again.

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Originally Posted by HibernianJK

Having watched a fair bit of Biden over the last few weeks I would be shocked if he wasn’t suffering from a very mild form of Alzheimer’s or something similar. The amount of times he finds it impossible to get a sentence out or jumbles his words is staggering for a man apparently in full health. He looks lost so much of the time. I want to say American deserves better than Trump or Biden but I’m not even sure they do anymore.

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Trump will rip him a new one on his health issues alone, based on Biden's recent appearances he's unelectable as president.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

I don't think so. Biden is well ahead in polling and it's not like either of them are unknowns. A certain amount of gaffery will be priced in.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

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I'd certainly be happy if it isn't the case! Though I'll hesitate to trust the polls after 2016. :greengrin

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

Trump will rip him a new one on his health issues alone, based on Biden's recent appearances he's unelectable as president.

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Trump should be unelectable also, and should have been in 2016.

There is a pretty committed anti-Trump vote which actually might be enough to get any Dem at all elected.

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Originally Posted by Vault Boy

I'd certainly be happy if it isn't the case! Though I'll hesitate to trust the polls after 2016. :greengrin

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The national polls were actually pretty much bang on. Clinton won the popular vote by +2 which I think was very close to the polling average. She just got the votes in the wrong places. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

Trump will rip him a new one on his health issues alone, based on Biden's recent appearances he's unelectable as president.

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Yeah I’ve been thinking that. I saw on another message board (American one) that Biden is apparently 11 points ahead at the moment. Didn’t bother checking but as another posted said a lot of ‘anyone but Trump’ votes should get him over the line.