Another betting thread?

I am not a gambler but I quite like spending a quiet hour or so on a Friday evening or Saturday morning putting together an acca or two. Money is tight in our household soI bet miniscule amounts just for the fun of it. I will look at good and poor form teams but not always obvious ones. I will occasionally check local websites to see if there is any reason for slumps in more obscure teams. This is where you learn about key injuries, manager changes ect.
I enjoy the research side.
I often use betfair acca edge, treble with stake back if one leg loses. Serious gamblers will baulk at that but it suits me. I only bet 1 or 2 quid.
I put a fiver in my account during the world cup and my account is at £37 a year later so I win more than I lose

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Thoughts on Leicester v Newcastle

It seemed to me anyway that Leicester were not the "nailed on" certainties that some thought. I wasn't as sure as I could be of a win so the money stayed in my account, that's a result and one of the first and most important lessons to learn. YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET. That's a great weapon in the tussle with the bookies. The game last night was the only one in England and also televised so there was always going to be a rush to get bets on this particular game.
Remember YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET

Secondly, as there wasn't a great deal to choose from, this game attracted lots of half time/full time bets or even worse "win both halves" bets. This is the classic "I need a better price" syndrome. You are effectively turning a single bet into a double where two outcomes are required. There were many people who fancied Chelsea the other night but because they wanted a little bit more money returned they went for these type of bets. The outcome...Chelsea, who they fancied to win, did indeed win but they did their cash through falling into the trap of looking for better prices.

I see it all the time with people at work. They'll go online, pick out two or three teams they think will win but when they see a return of maybe 100/30 or 9/2 for example they think "not enough" and add another couple of teams, solely to boost the price.

Earlier on, "Scorrie" told us no profit is too small. Excellent quote. If you've made your choice and are willing to put money down to back that choice up then stick with it. Looking for a bigger return inevitably leads to losing.

I hope nobody sees this as patronising or condescending (never really understood the difference so take your pick) :greengrin The purpose of this thread was to advise/give thoughts/maybe help others. Anyway as I said, just my thoughts.

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Match Stats

Home TeamLeicesterAway TeamNewcastle

PossessionHome72%Away28%ShotsHome12Away11Shots on TargetHome5Away5CornersHome2Away3Ho
Apart from possession everything else was fairly equal, with Newcastle getting the most important stat. Play that game 100 times and how many would Leicester win? I'd guess about 50, 5/4 and i'd back them. Last season the possession in this fixture was 66% Leicester and they lost.

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Originally Posted by Killiehibbie

Match Stats

Home TeamLeicesterAway TeamNewcastle

PossessionHome72%Away28%ShotsHome12Away11Shots on TargetHome5Away5CornersHome2Away3Ho
Apart from possession everything else was fairly equal, with Newcastle getting the most important stat. Play that game 100 times and how many would Leicester win? I'd guess about 50, 5/4 and i'd back them. Last season the possession in this fixture was 66% Leicester and they lost.

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It’s a weird one as Leicester had 59% possession up in Newcastle earlier in the season and won 2-0. It’s a funny old game, but ultimately possession doesn’t win you matches.

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Originally Posted by Rocky

I know you're being careful to avoid sounding condescending so this isn't meant as a criticism, just an observation on the differing perspectives on gambling. It's clear that you're viewing gambling as a challenge where you're aiming to make a profit over an extended period of time and your advice is based on that - which is fine for people who want to try to do the same although my broad view on that is that beating the bookies over an extended period is extremely difficult and if you do they'll close your account anyway!

I come at it from a different angle (and I suspect many other "fun" gamblers do too) where to me it's a form of entertainment, and the money I spend I view like paying for a sky subscription or a cinema ticket or whatever - it's the cost of that entertainment. So if I stick a quid on a ridiculous combination of corners / cards / goals / player to score etc I have low expectations of actually winning (especially on those types of bet which are basically just free money for the bookies) but it makes watching a match I would otherwise have no interest in really quite entertaining. Same goes for accas - 7 match over 2.5 goals accas are terrible value but they're fun if you start getting a few in and are holding out for a goal or two in the last five minutes. That doesn't mean I'm setting out to lose obviously and it's nice when the occasional glory bet comes in but that's very much a hope rather than an expectation.

So whilst it might look silly to you that work colleagues are adding extra selections to build a glory acca, it's perfectly possible that they're also looking at you and saying "look at that dafty trying to beat the bookies with a bunch of boring bets"!

My little tale of woe from the other night - I had a Lucky Fifteen on four correct scores on Wednesday night (£3 to return £1700 if they all came in) and in to injury time three were on track for a return of £199.80. I was sitting looking at the cash out at £150 debating whether to press the button when Reading scored 6 minutes and 20 seconds in to 6 minutes of injury time to scupper it and drop the returns to £19.80. So that's either a salutary lesson in how daft multiple bets are, or it shows you how much fun you can have for 3 quid - it's all a matter of perspective!

ps I'll still follow this thread as the sensible advice is appreciated - however I'll undoubtedly take sensible selections and put them into bonkers accas...

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Hi Rocky, thanks for the reply. I completely understand the fun gambling side of this. That's exactly where I and most other bettors started. It's also why I thought starting another thread might be the right idea rather than possibly pi55 off the people on the other thread.

Can I just say I don't think I've ever come across as saying anyone is silly (workmates or others) I hope I've just pointed out those behaviours (looking for bigger rewards) will in the long run lead to losses rather than wins. Hopefully people who are viewing this thread may be picking up a few nuggets of information. I'm not trying to change the gambling habits of the nation :greengrin and still not sure this thread has a long life.

Nothing really to add to this thread other than i like a bet, small stakes normally, £20 at most although i have had the four big bets for me, in the hundreds and 3 came in.:woohoo:

Of course over the years i'm well down as most of us will be, but i do love a punt on the football, and threads like these are a great read whether you take any of the good advice or not. :top marks

Sevilla v Betis tonight, probably my favourite game of the season when these two meet (outside of Hibs games obviously!). Love these games, the rivalry is super intense but usually fairly sporting, although tactics tend to go out of the window and they are fond of a high scoring game.

Sevilla to win and both teams to score at 15/8 is my pick for this one (Odds with bet365), however, Betis and BTTS at 11/2 looks to be good value if you're feeling the green and white connection.

Tricky day for rational betting! All part of the game though.

What next?!

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Originally Posted by EskbankHibby

Tricky day for rational betting! All part of the game though.

What next?!

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I'm already on Liverpool ante post for the league so that's enough excitement for me today :greengrin

Torino to beat Cagliari for me. £20 single near enough doubling my money. Small gains.

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Originally Posted by The_Exile

Sevilla v Betis tonight, probably my favourite game of the season when these two meet (outside of Hibs games obviously!). Love these games, the rivalry is super intense but usually fairly sporting, although tactics tend to go out of the window and they are fond of a high scoring game.

Sevilla to win and both teams to score at 15/8 is my pick for this one (Odds with bet365), however, Betis and BTTS at 11/2 looks to be good value if you're feeling the green and white connection.

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Well done mate :agree:

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Originally Posted by Smartie

I actually find the English leagues a nightmare. Everyone beats everyone, much harder to predict.

I like sooccerstats for a quick bit of research, you can see the last 6 games form in an instant.

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Try WinDrawWin good website easy to navigate and lots of good stats.

Thoughts on the masters and golf competitions in general.

Great to see Tiger winning again, lovely scenes with his family afterwards

Many people see value in the big prices offered by the bookies before the competition starts. Also the extended place terms bring loads of people in. As we all know, often at the cut even well fancied players miss out on the final two days. I never back each way these days and even when I did it wasn't on multiple selections. The limited return seldom covers your initial outlay on all your selections.
If I'm having a bet these days on the golf I'll wait until after round two has finished. By then you should have seen who is handling the course/conditions well. Granted the prices have dropped but are still very attractive for single win bets on one or two players. At the finish of round three Tiger was generally available at 9/1

Again just my thoughts. I've made many mistakes over the years and now it's about learning from them.

For the fun gamblers this won't apply so please carry on having fun. :aok:

I think Arsenal are a decent price tonight but it's one of those I just have a 'feeling' about so will be avoiding them

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Originally Posted by franck sauzee

I started matched betting 3 years ago and now do it full time. Why did you close down your accounts?

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I only opened accounts for the free offers so didnt see any point in having all these accounts and passwords. (plus the spam emails they sent out)

I Wouldnt actually mind doing it all over again but I presume i would need to register new accounts with a new card/ ip address or move house :greengrin which is a bit extreme.

When I closed about 15 accounts I got contacted by a few betsites offering me gambling awareness help, which was kind of ironic lol

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Franck I would be interested in how you made it work beyond the initial free bet stage because it wasn't all together clear how you made a profit beyond that? it looked like slim pickings after that but I was obviously missing something.

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Originally Posted by seanshow

I only opened accounts for the free offers so didnt see any point in having all these accounts and passwords. (plus the spam emails they sent out)

I Wouldnt actually mind doing it all over again but I presume i would need to register new accounts with a new card/ ip address or move house :greengrin which is a bit extreme.

When I closed about 15 accounts I got contacted by a few betsites offering me gambling awareness help, which was kind of ironic lol

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Franck I would be interested in how you made it work beyond the initial free bet stage because it wasn't all together clear how you made a profit beyond that? it looked like slim pickings after that but I was obviously missing something.

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There are an absolute mountain of reload offers from many bookies, bet 365 do their 4/1 offer on itv races so that can be used to make at least 30 quid every Saturday, then you’ve got free bet clubs etc which are worth another 5/10 quid each so around 30-40 quid a week in total from a few of the big name bookies, then a multitude of other offers, odds boosts etc, a lot of them only worth 3 or 4 quid but do that a couple of dozen times and you can quite easily make well over 100 quid a week without too much effort.

bet 365 and paddy’s pay out when your team goes 2 nil up so if you get a close match at the exchange to minimise your qualifying losses, you can make a killing out of that too if there’s a full turnaround or cash out your lay bet if the odds are favourable in play.

Atalanta v Empoli

On the face of it an easy home win? I'm not so sure. Empoli's poor away record includes an odd goal defeat to both Juventus and Roma and have beaten Napoli recently at home. At around 7/1 maybe a bit of value?

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Atalanta v Empoli

On the face of it an easy home win? I'm not so sure. Empoli's poor away record includes an odd goal defeat to both Juventus and Roma and have beaten Napoli recently at home. At around 7/1 maybe a bit of value?

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They have won 0 of 14 away games in the league this season, however they did come back from 2-0 down at home against Atalanta to win 3-2 earlier in the season. I think Atalanta will win but it could be tight.

Bohemians have started the season well, champions Dundalk less so and facing three defeats on the trot. 6/1 on the away win seems generous.


Bookies got that one right!

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Thoughts on the masters and golf competitions in general.

Great to see Tiger winning again, lovely scenes with his family afterwards

Many people see value in the big prices offered by the bookies before the competition starts. Also the extended place terms bring loads of people in. As we all know, often at the cut even well fancied players miss out on the final two days. I never back each way these days and even when I did it wasn't on multiple selections. The limited return seldom covers your initial outlay on all your selections.
If I'm having a bet these days on the golf I'll wait until after round two has finished. By then you should have seen who is handling the course/conditions well. Granted the prices have dropped but are still very attractive for single win bets on one or two players. At the finish of round three Tiger was generally available at 9/1

Again just my thoughts. I've made many mistakes over the years and now it's about learning from them.

For the fun gamblers this won't apply so please carry on having fun. :aok:

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With golf, I tend to do well out of 2 types of bet - bets before it has started and in-play bets either before or during the final round.

I like the extra places and picking out long shots before tournaments, who can do well for me if they place, very well when they win which I'll get a couple of each year. I also like the odd favourite in a weak field.

My worst bets are (normally) in-play during rounds 1, 2 and 3. For all a player can be playing well, the odds don't tend to reflect how much golf there still is left to play, I have lost fortunes doing this and therefore avoid them - when I keep my discipline.

I normally have an instinct during the final round when a tournament looks to be going a particular way, and it is an instinct that rarely lets me down. If I wasn't all-in on Molinari, you could feel the momentum shift towards Woods during the back 9. Some might say that betting on the Masters prior to the back 9 on the final day is a mug's game...

The strength of the fields in majors can make them hard to call, as there are can be so many strong players in contention, any of whom would win. Very fine margins. And I'm hopeless at calling the US Open. They make it crazy tough and if the weather gets going it can be impossible to predict.

I like the leader after round.... markets if I'm sitting watching, again because you get a feel for what is going on. These are a nightmare in advance or if you're not watching though. Good odds on clubhouse leaders whilst players on the course may be toiling, maybe if the weather has been better earlier in the day.

The "bogey free round" market gave me a bit of joy over the weekend. Molinari is a very steady player who gets few bogeys, well worth a look on this one. Tommy Fleetwood didn't have many bogeys until later in his round with this one too.

There are a few decent tipsters online who give tips and back then up with logic. They can be worth having a look at on the Wednesday, prior to events getting underway.

Good thread. Intersting reading. I go from trying to take it serious to blowing my money on stupid foreign football bets when I'm pissed! ��

Gonna try some of the tips, like keep a diary, see how I get on.

Keep the hints n tips coming. ��

Watford 16/1 Draw no bet in play. Thought they were by far the better team in the first half. Deulofeu could be the difference if he comes on