Tories are still lying *******s

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Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7

If you have a thing for making your blood boil you might enjoy this

IEA
@iealondon
·
[emoji599] The IEA and
@the_tpa
are delighted to announce that we will be hosting Chancellor of the Exchequer,
@KwasiKwarteng
, for an In Conversation at this year's Conservative Party Conference!

[emoji2773] Tune in on Tuesday 4th October here

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IEA are said to be financed by American far-right groups.

The ERG, who own the PM and her Chancellor, are the parliamentary version of the IEA. Its a political party within a political party. A militant tendency, so to speak.

Has the Lord of Siberia made any comment on the new PM.

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Originally Posted by Since90+2

Totally agree.

Anyone who voted for this Government is at least partially to blame for the current absolute ****show, you'd have to have lived in a cave for the past 5 years to think voting for the Conservative party at the last election was a good idea.

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Anyone who voted Tory after Cameron wants their heads looking at, anyone who voted Tory after May is a masochist, anybody who intends to vote Tory after Johnson is just a pure **** and anyone who is even considering voting Tory after Truss want locking up in an institute for the criminally insane.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...6aca38de90.jpg

That would be some result.[emoji102]
SNP official opposition.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...6aca38de90.jpg

That would be some result.[emoji102]
SNP official opposition.


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Canny see it but I would laugh like a drain.

We are all hostage to events.

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Could see wee fabricant and gove handcuffing themselves to the backbenches before giving up a seat at the top two.

I’ve long been someone who’s stated they’d enjoy a property market crash in order that my kids have a greater chance of owning their own home. I didn’t think it would be the far right of the Tory Party who would trigger it though!

Will be a miracle if she lasts to Christmas as PM, she has properly ****ed up the economy even worse than it already was, which takes some doing!

We have a dangerous idiot in charge...

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Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7

Snp main opposition 😆

https://mobile.twitter.com/hzeffman/...26100591169543

Lab: 54 (+9)
Con: 21 (-7)
Lib: 7 (-2)
Green: 6 (-1)
Ref: 4 (+1)


@hzeffman
Earlier I plugged these numbers into the Electoral Calculus predictor. It said the Conservatives would be left with *two seats*

Both are in Scotland so I think it's safe to say... zero seats

Of course it would seem utterly impossible for those numbers to hold to an election tho

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I'm not buying that for a minute. If there was a election tomorrow, even in the middle of this shambles, the Tories would get more than 21% of the vote. People are angry and are lashing out, but there's no way that poll would become reality at the voting booth. The poll I saw has Labour 15 ahead, which is more realistic. The Tories have an 80 seat head start; it's going to be difficult for Labour to transform that into a majority, no matter how badly Truss does.

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Originally Posted by Iain G

Will be a miracle if she lasts to Christmas as PM, she has properly ****ed up the economy even worse than it already was, which takes some doing!

We have a dangerous idiot in charge...

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IF she does go, the whole of the electorate cannot reasonably expect to let the 160k odd Conservative party members select who will form the next government, but how many Conservative MPs would be willing to put their necks on the line and call for a snap GE, I wonder?

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

Anyone who voted Tory after Cameron wants their heads looking at, anyone who voted Tory after May is a masochist, anybody who intends to vote Tory after Johnson is just a pure **** and anyone who is even considering voting Tory after Truss want locking up in an institute for the criminally insane.

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WELCOME TO SCOTLAND! :greengrin

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Originally Posted by Ryan91

IF she does go, the whole of the electorate cannot reasonably expect to let the 160k odd Conservative party members select who will form the next government, but how many Conservative MPs would be willing to put their necks on the line and call for a snap GE, I wonder?

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The comment made by the BBC reporter earlier is that there are unhappy Tory MPs but they think it's too early for another leadership contest! Get this idiot and her idiot chancellor away from any kind of power whatever it takes! Seems Rishi may have been the better option after all?

Truss either undertakes a massive U-Turn on the crazy mini-budget, thus making herself look clueless, or she sticks to her guns, risking financial meltdown. Perhaps she will empty Kwerteng and blame him for everything, then change course. No easy way out for Dim Lizzy.

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

I'm not buying that for a minute. If there was a election tomorrow, even in the middle of this shambles, the Tories would get more than 21% of the vote. People are angry and are lashing out, but there's no way that poll would become reality at the voting booth. The poll I saw has Labour 15 ahead, which is more realistic. The Tories have an 80 seat head start; it's going to be difficult for Labour to transform that into a majority, no matter how badly Truss does.

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Going to need the support of the SNP, oh wait, never he said 😂

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

I'm not buying that for a minute. If there was a election tomorrow, even in the middle of this shambles, the Tories would get more than 21% of the vote. People are angry and are lashing out, but there's no way that poll would become reality at the voting booth. The poll I saw has Labour 15 ahead, which is more realistic. The Tories have an 80 seat head start; it's going to be difficult for Labour to transform that into a majority, no matter how badly Truss does.

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I totally agree Tories would get more than 21% of vote, but country wide polls can translate weirdly to individual seats

This is a good blog, Tories at 28% which is a fairer prediction but looks like they take a seat by seat consideration and it shows Labour destroying them

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/..._20220928.html

A lot can change between now and whenever an election actually happens, but when it does happen if Labour only win by 15 seats think that that would mean either Labour somehow imploded or some other unexpected world event happens which the Tories can somehow take advantage of.... and I wouldn't completely rule out either scenario

Telegraph reporting that Tory backbenchers are threatening to rebel over the proposed cut to the 45p tax rate.

Of course, it's all well and good to be saying it now publicly, will said backbenchers actually go through with it when the time comes?

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

I'm not buying that for a minute. If there was a election tomorrow, even in the middle of this shambles, the Tories would get more than 21% of the vote. People are angry and are lashing out, but there's no way that poll would become reality at the voting booth. The poll I saw has Labour 15 ahead, which is more realistic. The Tories have an 80 seat head start; it's going to be difficult for Labour to transform that into a majority, no matter how badly Truss does.

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It's more nuanced than that. No one is saying they are going to realistically get 2 seats. But that the last two major polls showing 20 plus% lead. It equates to a landslide victory.

Traditionally the tories would get a bounce from the party conference, but everyone has the popcorn out waiting for truss to defend this shambles.

Usually you would say they will just change the leader in the next 6 months and they will have 2 years. That won't fly when they have just had a lengthy process to change leader.

If anyone thinks things will revert to normal then now is the time to get to the bookies. Tories are 2/1 for most seats, Labour 1/3 on

They didn't want to know and didn't care what this was going to do to the economy

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalisl...65395599261703

faisalislam
NEW

OBR confirms on record my story from 9 days ago that it prepared a draft forecast for new Chancellor waiting for him on first day at Treasury 6th September, and that an offer for a legally compliant forecast to accompany the mini-budget was rejected

In a letter from OBR chief Richard Hughes to SNP MPs
@alisonthewliss
and
@ianblackford_MP


* We sent a draft economic and fiscal forecast to the new Chancellor on 6 September, his first day in office. We offered, at the time, to update that forecast

In the event, we were not commissioned to produce an updated forecast alongside the Chancellor’s Growth Plan on 23 September, although we would have been in a position to do so to a standard that satisfied the legal requirements of the Charter for Budget Responsibility

HM Treasury have previously told me that the OBR acknowledged that the forecast it could have published alongside the mini Budget, would not have been as full a document as normal, which is acknowledged by OBR, but it still would have been to legal standards

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Originally Posted by Ryan91

IF she does go, the whole of the electorate cannot reasonably expect to let the 160k odd Conservative party members select who will form the next government, but how many Conservative MPs would be willing to put their necks on the line and call for a snap GE, I wonder?

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None is the answer

https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/s...H6cBQ_3qA&s=08

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Originally Posted by Bostonhibby

https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/s...H6cBQ_3qA&s=08

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It's actually frightening listening to her!

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Originally Posted by WhileTheChief..

Who has said that??

My vote is the very definition of a wasted vote due to my location.

It was over 2 years ago I voted. An awful lot has changed since then!

Nobody voted for the actions taken in the budget and nobody agrees with the actions taken by this govt.

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“ the fact I voted Conservative means nothing.”

You did :confused:

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Originally Posted by Iain G

It's actually frightening listening to her!

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Unless you are a hedge fund manager,like the chancellor's former boss, for example.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/kwa...-bonds-profit/

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It's almost always a bad idea to draw significant conclusions from one or two individual polls, eye-catching as they may be – the margins of errors are just too high. Averaged polls give a much better picture (but still obviously don't eliminate all error).

And it's not like the averaged results of polls aren't eye-catching in themselves, e.g. this data currently has Labour 17 points ahead and shows the remarkable shift over the course of the last few weeks: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-...nited-kingdom/

(It also illustrates the folly of reading too much into individual polls – the dots represent individual poll results and at pretty much any point from March to August you could pick outliers showing either Labour with a big lead or the two parties neck and neck.)

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Originally Posted by nonshinyfinish

It's almost always a bad idea to draw significant conclusions from one or two individual polls, eye-catching as they may be – the margins of errors are just too high. Averaged polls give a much better picture (but still obviously don't eliminate all error).

And it's not like the averaged results of polls aren't eye-catching in themselves, e.g. this data currently has Labour 17 points ahead and shows the remarkable shift over the course of the last few weeks: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-...nited-kingdom/

(It also illustrates the folly of reading too much into individual polls – the dots represent individual poll results and at pretty much any point from March to August you could pick outliers showing either Labour with a big lead or the two parties neck and neck.)

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:agree: Politico's basket of polls is the best way to get a true picture away from the headline ones. Unless the Tories actually DO something positive though I can see it being sustained for the next few cycles as well.

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Originally Posted by nonshinyfinish

It's almost always a bad idea to draw significant conclusions from one or two individual polls, eye-catching as they may be – the margins of errors are just too high. Averaged polls give a much better picture (but still obviously don't eliminate all error).

And it's not like the averaged results of polls aren't eye-catching in themselves, e.g. this data currently has Labour 17 points ahead and shows the remarkable shift over the course of the last few weeks: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-...nited-kingdom/

(It also illustrates the folly of reading too much into individual polls – the dots represent individual poll results and at pretty much any point from March to August you could pick outliers showing either Labour with a big lead or the two parties neck and neck.)

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No one is saying this will be the result. But the margin of the last two hasn't been matched since Blair was about to come into power. If anyone thinks its still close get yourselfs to the bookmakers now. Not enough of a price to tempt me personally

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https://mobile.twitter.com/DickMacki...13996887003138

@DickMackintosh
Do you think helping rich people vastly more than poor people in a cost of living crisis is fair?

Liz Truss ''Yes'' #bbcqt

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

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Johnson: "We have the fastest growing economy in the G7."

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Originally Posted by grunt

Johnson: "We have the fastest growing economy in the G7."

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Stick it on the side of a bus and millions will believe it.

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https://scontent.fman1-1.fna.fbcdn.n...4A&oe=633BE407