Brexit - What Now.

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

spot on - and there is no appetite for that for 2 reasons:

1) it’s too close to call. No deal is a disaster and if they shouldn’t have asked the first question then they absolutely shouldn’t ask for the cliff edge.

2) remain solves nothing - we can’t move on as a country due to the divisions. We’ll appoint a euro sceptic government who will do nothing but obstruct EU business (look at what the SNP do at Westminster and hollyrood but multiply this impact by 100 as the UK can veto anything it likes in the EU)

the UK and EU only move on from this with a deal and brexit happening. That’s why we’ll get one for a leave on 31st.

if we learn one thing as a country then 2016 should be the last referendum we ever hold.

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The SNP obstructs business at Holyrood? :confused:

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

The SNP obstructs business at Holyrood? :confused:

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everytime they debate something that is not devolved they are obstructing holyrood business (I.e. items of foreign policy)

they have MP’s at Westminster to debate those

point is - the UK government would be exactly the same in the EU

If Westminster had paid any attention at all to what happens in Brussels we might not be here.


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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

everytime they debate something that is not devolved they are obstructing holyrood business (I.e. items of foreign policy)

they have MP’s at Westminster to debate those

point is - the UK government would be exactly the same in the EU

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So every time anyone in the UK parliament mentions, for example, a post-Brexit trade deal with the US, they are wasting parliamentary time/obstructing the business of the UK parliament, because it's not currently in the UK's power to make a post-Brexit trade deal with the US - is that your argument? :dunno:

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

So every time anyone in the UK parliament mentions, for example, a post-Brexit trade deal with the US, they are wasting parliamentary time/obstructing the business of the UK parliament, because it's not currently in the UK's power to make a post-Brexit trade deal with the US - is that your argument? :dunno:

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yes - they are.

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/st...392503296?s=21

Eu make an offer of time limited back stop.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/st...392503296?s=21

Eu make an offer of time limited back stop.

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Brexiter on that thread asking if a double majority means the Irish would have to vote twice. :faf:

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Brexiter on that thread asking if a double majority means the Irish would have to vote twice. :faf:

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It’s a nice little trap set by the EU and Ireland. Will mean NI will constantly be tied closer to Ireland than the UK. And because it’s time limited the UK should be ok with it. Except they won’t be.


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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

There is only one outcome here chaps - we leave the EU on 31st October WITH a deal.

* all the news today about the BoJo proposals being unworkable are a mixture of misinformation deliberately ‘leaked’ to the media and chest beating by officials in the early stages of negotiation (deals are struck at the last minute - not on day 1)
* the EU are sick of brexit and want it done - BoJo is not daft enough to not leave wriggle room in his proposal so there is lots to work with
* the compromises the EU will make will result in an ultimatum to parliament to either take the deal, leave with no deal or revoke article 50 (and the later 2 is unsupportable by all bar SNP MP’s)
* BoJo knows he’ll get his deal through Parliament as he’ll have engaged enough sensible labour MP’s.
* why would the EU grant an extension when a monkey could work out it would return BoJo with a landslide majority government on a ‘no deal’ ticket.
* the deal will be approved by Ireland (as they won’t veto it in the EU) and the UK so no issues with the good Friday agreement. Only the SNP will feel hard done by that Northern Ireland get a nice power and they are irrelevant in this vote/debate as the UK government could announce the Earth is round and they’d disagree
* BoJo is still adamant publicly we’re leaving on the 31st - he doesn’t back losers - everything to date is part of his plan.

16/1 leave with a deal on Ladbrokes.......

after the deal is struck:
* general election
* BoJo destroys all opposition parties for the surrender bill, the court case and incorrect judges verdict (which will be incorrect if he gets a deal) and for not backing Britain
* BoJo wins in a landslide

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

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Disagree, it's an oblate spheroid. :wink::greengrin

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

It’s a nice little trap set by the EU and Ireland. Will mean NI will constantly be tied closer to Ireland than the UK. And because it’s time limited the UK should be ok with it. Except they won’t be.


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Chances of the nationalist side of NI agreeing to leave the EU's (and thus Ireland's) regulatory orbit? Absolutely stone cold nil. It's as much of a compromise as the UK proposal, ie. almost not at all

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

It’s a nice little trap set by the EU and Ireland. Will mean NI will constantly be tied closer to Ireland than the UK.

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Things are not as simple as that though. Remember that Johnson is going to put physical infrastructure in the Irish Sea to permanently link Scotland and Northern Ireland.

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Originally Posted by Speedy

Don't want to get in to a big debate about it,as I think we're too far gone to actually reach a positive outcome at this stage, but I think a second referendum is the best way to resolve.

Vote in order of preference on no deal, specific deal, remain. If no overall majority then lowest tally is eliminated with their second preference deciding the outcome. Will there be outcry if remain wins, absolutely. However it would also show that leave at all costs isn't what the country wants. Conversely, if a version of leave wins then it is clear - no objections based on differing views on how we leave or any claims of protest votes etc., just a clear mandate to deliver it.

The problem with another referendum is that it is vague. There are multiple policies at play so it doesn't provide a clear mandate. Who does a Tory leaning remain voter opt for for example?

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I'm not in favour of preference voting. I think it would be clearer to have 2 votes (like the French presidential elections).

Week 1 - choose a Leave option. An actually agreed deal vs No deal. Key here is both options must be achievable (however catastrophic) with no wishful thinking.
Week 2 - chosen Leave option vs Remain.

MPs to sit on Saturday Oct 19th where I think Johnson will be trying to get No Deal approved.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49984367

Rebel alliance needs to get its act together fast.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

Chances of the nationalist side of NI agreeing to leave the EU's (and thus Ireland's) regulatory orbit? Absolutely stone cold nil. It's as much of a compromise as the UK proposal, ie. almost not at all

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But it does leave the decision entirely to the people of NI so from the EU point of view they are offering a time limited back stop which is what the brexiteers say they wanted. And who could be against the people of NI having control over their own futures?


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

But it does leave the decision entirely to the people of NI so from the EU point of view they are offering a time limited back stop which is what the brexiteers say they wanted. And who could be against the people of NI having control over their own futures?


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Well they stopped the people of Scotland deciding on our fate.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

But it does leave the decision entirely to the people of NI so from the EU point of view they are offering a time limited back stop which is what the brexiteers say they wanted. And who could be against the people of NI having control over their own futures?


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Yes, it's good politics. Unfortunately the DUP are not going to be swayed by good politics, the toys will be out the pram regardless.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Things are not as simple as that though. Remember that Johnson is going to put physical infrastructure in the Irish Sea to permanently link Scotland and Northern Ireland.

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His bridge between NI and Scotland would need the greatest feat of engineering ever known. Why not put a ladder to the moon while ur at it.

The Court of Session delays ruling on the latest Brexit case (enforcement of the Benn act) until Oct 21 to see what Johnson & co do in the meantime.

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Originally Posted by southsider

His bridge between NI and Scotland would need the greatest feat of engineering ever known. Why not put a ladder to the moon while ur at it.

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It would need giant rungs to let the flying pigs through.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

The Court of Session delays ruling on the latest Brexit case (enforcement of the Benn act) until Oct 21 to see what Johnson & co do in the meantime.

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That's Bojo's card marked.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

The Court of Session delays ruling on the latest Brexit case (enforcement of the Benn act) until Oct 21 to see what Johnson & co do in the meantime.

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BREAKING Lord Carloway rules the court will delay a final ruling on @DaleVince #BennAct case - resumes case after 19 October #courtofsession


https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/1181873716994678785?s=19

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

I'm not in favour of preference voting. I think it would be clearer to have 2 votes (like the French presidential elections).

Week 1 - choose a Leave option. An actually agreed deal vs No deal. Key here is both options must be achievable (however catastrophic) with no wishful thinking.
Week 2 - chosen Leave option vs Remain.

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I'd go with that.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

It’s against the law. It’s not about votes. It’s about whether he can avoid being charged.


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When has a PM ever been charged in this country. It just wouldn’t happen

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

I'm not in favour of preference voting. I think it would be clearer to have 2 votes (like the French presidential elections).

Week 1 - choose a Leave option. An actually agreed deal vs No deal. Key here is both options must be achievable (however catastrophic) with no wishful thinking.
Week 2 - chosen Leave option vs Remain.

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Similar, but I think a 2-part vote done in one go would be easier to manage.

Part 1 - Remain or Leave

Part 2 - If it's leave, deal or no deal.

Why not put this : Q. Brexit is going to cost upwards of £100 Billion. Do u still want to leave the EU ?

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

i see where you are with the 2nd referendum but I see little point in holding one if the 1st result isn’t respected. Any 2nd referendum would be a ‘should we rejoin the EU?’ Question. Agree with brexit or not, serious questions would arise about our democracy if 17 million people instruct the government to do something and they don’t (Tory and labour know this so won’t seriously push for it as their parties will be dead in the sea).

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There are a number of possible future relationships with the EU if the UK leaves. At the time of the referendum it was not spelled out which of these would be sought. To "respect the result of the referendum" you should go back to the electorate to find out whether what is available is what they thought they would get, and that vote has to include the option of remaining. That should always have been the policy.

The real world possibilities are now no-deal, May's deal (though that might change next week) and remain. Recent opinion polls generally now indicate a majority wanting to remain. How would it be democratic to make such a massive change to the nation's future against the will of the majority?

It would be like going to a builder for a quote for work on your house and telling him that you're going to go ahead regardless of the price or quality of what he's going to do.

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Originally Posted by ballengeich

There are a number of possible future relationships with the EU if the UK leaves. At the time of the referendum it was not spelled out which of these would be sought. To "respect the result of the referendum" you should go back to the electorate to find out whether what is available is what they thought they would get, and that vote has to include the option of remaining. That should always have been the policy.

The real world possibilities are now no-deal, May's deal (though that might change next week) and remain. Recent opinion polls generally now indicate a majority wanting to remain. How would it be democratic to make such a massive change to the nation's future against the will of the majority?

It would be like going to a builder for a quote for work on your house and telling him that you're going to go ahead regardless of the price or quality of what he's going to do.

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Or him asking What you want done mate ? I don’t know Just get it done

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Originally Posted by southsider

His bridge between NI and Scotland would need the greatest feat of engineering ever known.

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Gloomster! :grr::panic:

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Originally Posted by southsider

Why not put this : Q. Brexit is going to cost upwards of £100 Billion. Do u still want to leave the EU ?

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Because a lot of people don't care how much it will cost or the impact it will have. They just want the foreigners out and the opportunity to "rule the waves" again.

https://twitter.com/rogerbarjb/statu...-7bhWohS5GikJc


Attachment 22605


awk stop the teasing but i do support the idea of english independence tho i'm not sure how on gods great earth will we survive :(

I think I may have solved Johnson's dilemma over the extension letter!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49996166

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Originally Posted by Hibbyradge

I think I may have solved Trump's dilemma over the extension letter!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49996166

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Don't bring him into this! :greengrin

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Originally Posted by Future17

Don't bring him into this! :greengrin

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Bollocks. I meant that whankpiece Johnson, obviously.

Amended.

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Originally Posted by Hibbyradge

Bollocks. I meant that whankpiece Johnson, obviously.

Amended.

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Britain Trump, as we call him !!

So you weren’t entirely wrong!!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2019/jul/23/they-call-him-britains-trump-trump-on-boris-johnson-video

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Originally Posted by Colr

Britain Trump, as we call him !!

So you weren’t entirely wrong!!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-johnson-video

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I find the Johnson Trump comparisons quite lazy. They are not much alike apart from the blond hair.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

I find the Johnson Trump comparisons quite lazy. They are not much alike apart from the blond hair.


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And they are both self serving right wing narcissist to$$ers.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

I find the Johnson Trump comparisons quite lazy. They are not much alike apart from the blond hair.


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I find the use of the word "lazy" to describe opinions as clichéd and glib. :wink:

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

I find the Johnson Trump comparisons quite lazy. They are not much alike apart from the blond hair.


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Aye, but they are both balloons who wid stick their dick in a tear in a horse hair couch.

Philip Hammond comes clean about "Buccaneering Britain".

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We all know these trade deals are of very limited potential value and likely to be very hard to negotiate without serious domestic economic and political consequences

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If only he'd been in a position to warn us before. :rolleyes:

From the Guardian:

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A no-deal Brexit would put Nissan’s entire European business model in jeopardy, the car manufacturer has said in its strongest warning yet over the UK’s departure from the EU.

Gianluca de Ficchy, the chairman of Nissan Europe, said the imposition of a 10% tariff on exports under World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms would threaten the future of its large Sunderland plant.

“If we are in a situation in which tomorrow we have to apply 10% export duties to 70% of our sales, the entire business model for Nissan Europe will be in jeopardy,”

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Ach well, it's only 30 thousand jobs. The unemployed just need to believe a bit harder anyway. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

From the Guardian:



Ach well, it's only 30 thousand jobs. The unemployed just need to believe a bit harder anyway. :rolleyes:

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Wish they had been as vocal in 2016.

Could have done with some hard warnings to areas like Sunderland and Swindon (Honda).

J

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...2001dde319.jpg


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...2001dde319.jpg

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Shirley this is just more pretending - everyone trying to make sure they're not the one who gets the blame for finally pulling the plug?

I've not heard any of the detail on this yet, but beady Caledonian eyes will be trained on the possibility of any deal that gives Northern Ireland a significant trading advantage over Scotland.

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Originally Posted by Smartie

I've not heard any of the detail on this yet, but beady Caledonian eyes will be trained on the possibility of any deal that gives Northern Ireland a significant trading advantage over Scotland.

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And also any deal that would make independence harder. Anything that involves a border between iScotland and England does that.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

And also any deal that would make independence harder. Anything that involves a border between iScotland and England does that.


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Don’t see a problem with a border between England and Scotland if there is no border between Scotland and Europe.

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Originally Posted by Colr

Don’t see a problem with a border between England and Scotland if there is no border between Scotland and Europe.

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A lot of people would agree with you, the problem is that a few too many would probably disagree.

Scotland has a choice. Either a border with England (who will trade with what?). Or a border with Ireland, Denmark, Holland, Belgium, France, Spain, Portugal.... etc

It's a real headache right enough.

Personally wouldn't have any issue with a border with England, with modern technology and work arounds I don't think it would need to be some sort of return of the iron curtain.

I accept that's probably not the majority view, but then again I assume the biggest objections would be from those beside the border who for the most part are huge no voting Tories so I don't think it would be making too much of a dent in the Yes vote.

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Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee

Scotland has a choice. Either a border with England (who will trade with what?). Or a border with Ireland, Denmark, Holland, Belgium, France, Spain, Portugal.... etc

It's a real headache right enough.

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It is. Like the brexiteers, you are ignoring geography. England is our nearest neighbours and it’s very important that we can trade freely with them. A Scottish business that wants to expand is going to look at Newcastle before it thinks of Portugal.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

It is. Like the brexiteers, you are ignoring geography. England is our nearest neighbours and it’s very important that we can trade freely with them. A Scottish business that wants to expand is going to look at Newcastle before it thinks of Portugal.


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Geography isn't everything, especially in this day and age. Businesses will expand where the money and market demand is. Whether that be next door, or several hundred miles over seas.

Newcastle isn't going to be an all too appealing prospect if the flow of capital isn't going there. Businesses want to expand into a large open market, not an insular one where free trade and capital are scarce.

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

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Whoah, probably the best keeper of all time, doubt he's bumbled that much to be fair!

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Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee

Geography isn't everything, especially in this day and age. Businesses will expand where the money and market demand is. Whether that be next door, or several hundred miles over seas.

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That's what those in favour of a no-deal Brexit have been telling us all along.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

It is. Like the brexiteers, you are ignoring geography. England is our nearest neighbours and it’s very important that we can trade freely with them. A Scottish business that wants to expand is going to look at Newcastle before it thinks of Portugal.


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A lot would be dependent on the type of product, food and drink especially whisky would be looking to the Far East or Latin America for growth now.

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Originally Posted by CloudSquall

A lot would be dependent on the type of product, food and drink especially whisky would be looking to the Far East or Latin America for growth now.

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Of course but a lot of our economy is made up of more humdrum stuff. And something less glam like a plumbers merchant will likely expand into England where the language is the same rather than the continent.
I really think we will struggle to persuade people that border checks are a price worth paying for independence.


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Originally Posted by ballengeich

That's what those in favour of a no-deal Brexit have been telling us all along.

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They're referring to trade beyond Europe where free trade agreements and quality control don't apply.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Of course but a lot of our economy is made up of more humdrum stuff. And something less glam like a plumbers merchant will likely expand into England where the language is the same rather than the continent.
I really think we will struggle to persuade people that border checks are a price worth paying for independence.


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Well we'll certainly struggle with that attitude. The argument is pretty straight forward. What is better for business and the overall wealth of society? Trade with an insular country with severely limited trading options, or free trade with an entire continent with strict quality control laws to protect the rights and health of consumers?

If we can't drill such an easy argument home, then we deserve the worst.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Of course but a lot of our economy is made up of more humdrum stuff. And something less glam like a plumbers merchant will likely expand into England where the language is the same rather than the continent.
I really think we will struggle to persuade people that border checks are a price worth paying for independence.


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I agree especially in the short term. However, it’s worth saying that Ireland has achieved its economic potential while reducing its exports to the UK to approx 20% of their total.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

I agree especially in the short term. However, it’s worth saying that Ireland has achieved its economic potential while reducing its exports to the UK to approx 20% of their total.

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but how much of the non-UK 80% has to pass through a UK port on its way to its destination?

as I said earlier a deal is happening:
* the worst hit by no deal will be ROI - UK is big enough to ride it out.
* to support ROI out of trouble they are going to need significant EU support (specifically Germany) - does Merkel have the appetite for carrying another nation alongside Greece, Italy & Spain?

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Of course but a lot of our economy is made up of more humdrum stuff. And something less glam like a plumbers merchant will likely expand into England where the language is the same rather than the continent.
I really think we will struggle to persuade people that border checks are a price worth paying for independence.


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Unless there's a no deal Brexit and it's as an even higher bigger cluster****** than many are predicting, the need for a border between Scotland and England will kibosh independence.

A vote in favour of independence is not a certainty now, even with no border issue, and no matter how loud people shout, or try to point out the logical benefits of EU v UK, the margin to remain would be more than 55% - 45% if there was.

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

but how much of the non-UK 80% has to pass through a UK port on its way to its destination?

as I said earlier a deal is happening:
* the worst hit by no deal will be ROI - UK is big enough to ride it out.
* to support ROI out of trouble they are going to need significant EU support (specifically Germany) - does Merkel have the appetite for carrying another nation alongside Greece, Italy & Spain?

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Roughly half is services so no ports there. For the goods I don’t know.

The economic impact of no deal is awful for Ireland but even worse for the UK. Ireland is currently running a surplus so has some cushion. The UK still in deficit which will get much bigger. We will ride it out by seeing the poor of the UK get ****ed.

Ireland has its own ports, lots of them?


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Ireland has its own ports, lots of them?


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all of which sail to Great Britain, then onwards to their end destination.

there are very few routes direct to mainland Europe as the time takes 18 to 24 hours at sea. Big problem if goods are perishable.

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

all of which sail to Great Britain, then onwards to their end destination.

there are very few routes direct to mainland Europe as the time takes 18 to 24 hours at sea. Big problem if goods are perishable.

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That's not entirely true. Irish cargo sails directly into continental European ports. Rotterdam and Antwerp being the main ones, I think.

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

all of which sail to Great Britain, then onwards to their end destination.

there are very few routes direct to mainland Europe as the time takes 18 to 24 hours at sea. Big problem if goods are perishable.

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Do you mean ferries? I’m pretty sure container ships will sail direct to Europe. Would cost a lot more to sail a container to uk, then drive it across the country and onto another boat to Europe?


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Quick google search shows dublin port moves about 38m tonnes of goods a year. Leith moves about 1m tonnes.


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This is the problem with political discussion these days - nobody wants facts, they only want to hear what supports their opinion.

clearly Ireland have a big issue if there is a no deal brexit due to the big sea barrier and the UK being a land obstacle to shorten any distance. Saying that they will just sail is over simplifying the solution and impractical.

looked up an article I read on it a while ago - it’s here if you’re interested - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460 (headline if not - 85% docks in UK - 60% stays in UK and other 40% onward to Europe)

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Quick google search shows dublin port moves about 38m tonnes of goods a year. Leith moves about 1m tonnes.


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just the 30m tonnes that end up on UK soil then..........

Just putting this up about ROI trade.


http://www.worldstopexports.com/irel...port-partners/

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

just the 30m tonnes that end up on UK soil then..........

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It's certainly more convenient and quicker to use the land bridge that the UK offers, but other sailing routes will be found if needs be.

The whole of Europe, including Ireland, will suffer if there's a no deal Brexit, but the UK will be worst hit and by a stretch.

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

This is the problem with political discussion these days - nobody wants facts, they only want to hear what supports their opinion.

clearly Ireland have a big issue if there is a no deal brexit due to the big sea barrier and the UK being a land obstacle to shorten any distance. Saying that they will just sail is over simplifying the solution and impractical.

looked up an article I read on it a while ago - it’s here if you’re interested - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460 (headline if not - 85% docks in UK - 60% stays in UK and other 40% onward to Europe)

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That whole article only deals with roll on roll off ferries. That’s important for perishable goods as you say but container ships carry half of all Ireland’s exports and I doubt they are unloading them in the uk and the reloading them at another port.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

That whole article only deals with roll on roll off ferries. That’s important for perishable goods as you say but container ships carry half of all Ireland’s exports and I doubt they are unloading them in the uk and the reloading them at another port.


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They are.

Here's a direct route to Europe https://www.dfds.com/en-gb/freight-s...europe-ireland

And here's another https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.iri...496%3fmode=amp

And they're planning more https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.iri...248%3fmode=amp

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

This is the problem with political discussion these days - nobody wants facts, they only want to hear what supports their opinion.

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You’re right but you’ve just done exactly what you castigate in others. The UK will be fine on account of its size is just nonsense.

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Originally Posted by Hibbyradge

It's certainly more convenient and quicker to use the land bridge that the UK offers, but other sailing routes will be found if needs be.

The whole of Europe, including Ireland, will suffer if there's a no deal Brexit, but the UK will be worst hit and by a stretch.

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not denying they will find other routes - the point is they would rather not. Combined with keeping their large % of exports to their closest neighbour tariff free they need a deal.

everyone is poorer with a no deal brexit, it won’t be risked so a deal will be struck for the 31st. This is the point I’m making - I’m not making a leave or remain argument, just commenting on what is actually going to happen.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

You’re right but you’ve just done exactly what you castigate in others. The UK will be fine on account of its size is just nonsense.

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I never said it would be fine - remove your blinkers everyone. I’m saying we will suffer but will ride the storm better than Ireland who would need substantial support from the EU (in particular Germany) to see them through it.

everyone is getting to caught up on what they want to happen (remainders stay and leavers getting a no deal) they are missing what is actually going to happen - there will be no 2nd referendum, we are leaving the EU, May’s deal with a reworked Irish border solution will be pushed through for the 31st October.

on the 1st of November it’s all over and we move on

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Originally Posted by Colr

Don’t see a problem with a border between England and Scotland if there is no border between Scotland and Europe.

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Wouldn't it be ironic if the border between Scotland and England once again becomes the peripheral post where the civilised world meets the under developed world?

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

I never said it would be fine - remove your blinkers everyone. I’m saying we will suffer but will ride the storm better than Ireland who would need substantial support from the EU (in particular Germany) to see them through it.

everyone is getting to caught up on what they want to happen (remainders stay and leavers getting a no deal) they are missing what is actually going to happen - there will be no 2nd referendum, we are leaving the EU, May’s deal with a reworked Irish border solution will be pushed through for the 31st October.

on the 1st of November it’s all over and we move on

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Why would Ireland need support but the UK wouldn’t? You don’t have evidence to back that up, you’re just guessing.

In the deal situation, both UK and EU want one but then again they already have one. The danger is that if the UK really has moved far enough it will lose the DUP & spartan erg again.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...46877?mode=amp


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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

Why would Ireland need support but the UK wouldn’t? You don’t have evidence to back that up, you’re just guessing.

In the deal situation, both UK and EU want one but then again they already have one. The danger is that if the UK really has moved far enough it will lose the DUP & spartan erg again.

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UK support will be debt which we have access too are far better rates than Ireland.

i’m not saying this is the preferred solution, far from it, but without a deal it’s going to happen. Everyone is going to get tax hikes (UK and EU) with an increased debt burden with no deal. People need to stop trying to overturn or block decisions already made and just make the deal and get it done.

longer this goes on, the more inevitable no deal becomes.

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

UK support will be debt which we have access too are far better rates than Ireland.

i’m not saying this is the preferred solution, far from it, but without a deal it’s going to happen. Everyone is going to get tax hikes (UK and EU) with an increased debt burden with no deal. People need to stop trying to overturn or block decisions already made and just make the deal and get it done.

longer this goes on, the more inevitable no deal becomes.

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Do we have access to far better rates than Ireland? Irish bonds rates are below zero.
Can we borrow cheaper than that?


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Do we have access to far better rates than Ireland? Irish bonds rates are below zero.
Can we borrow cheaper than that?


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so - on the independence thread you boast Ireland is booming but here you praise a policy implemented as a stimulation attempt as they are concerned about the economy.

not going to get many people jumping to invest in debt at negative interest rates.

so is it a good thing that Ireland have turned to the desperation of negative interest rates?

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

so - on the independence thread you boast Ireland is booming but here you praise a policy implemented as a stimulation attempt as they are concerned about the economy.

not going to get many people jumping to invest in debt at negative interest rates.

so is it a good thing that Ireland have turned to the desperation of negative interest rates?

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Ireland is running a surplus, it’s not borrowing anything just now. But if they need to in the future, the rates will be lower than the uk because the debt burden in Ireland is lower.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Ireland is running a surplus, it’s not borrowing anything just now. But if they need to in the future, the rates will be lower than the uk because the debt burden in Ireland is lower.


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running a surplus and borrowing are not the same thing.

they are running a surplus because they have put measures in to stimulate the economy - hence negative interest rates.

they have debt - just the 230 billion euros or 48k per head https://commodity.com/debt-clock/ireland/ (compared to UK 1.8 trillion pounds or £33k per head)

your statement sounds better for your argument tho so who cares about reality.

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

running a surplus and borrowing are not the same thing.

they are running a surplus because they have put measures in to stimulate the economy - hence negative interest rates.

they have debt - just the 230 billion euros or 48k per head https://commodity.com/debt-clock/ireland/ (compared to UK 1.8 trillion pounds or £33k per head)

your statement sounds better for your argument tho so who cares about reality.

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Or you could put it as Irish debt = 68% of gdp compared with UK debt = 86% of gdp.
And the UK’s debt is still rising. Ireland are reducing theirs.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Or you could put it as Irish debt = 68% of gdp compared with UK debt = 86% of gdp.
And the UK’s debt is still rising. Ireland are reducing theirs.


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We've been over GDP - Ireland's is higher year on year due to stimulation measures like negative interest rates increasing output. They have the challenge of keeping output at that level - if they do them good for them,

This is the problem with these selective stats:
Is Ireland's GDP higher per head than Scotland in 2018? - yes
Is Ireland's debt as a % of GDP lower than that of the U.K. For 2018? yes
What does that mean? - in reality very little, but to a Scottish independence or EU remain propagandist it means Ireland is booming as an independent nation because that's what they want to see.

These are statements you will never see the SNP release or a credible EU remain politician as they don't stand up to scrutiny despite being factually correct. They are happy for the loyal to spout them to anyone who will listen tho.

I wouldn't be anti Scottish independence if the evidence was there to support it - the problem is it isn't and nobody is properly answering the questions. If you want to win any rerun of 2014 then the people you need to convince are not going to blindly accept these statements without proper scrutiny as they were burned in 2016.

As for EU, we are where we are - the vote has been run and there is no point having it again (an overturn would only increase division). In my opinion it's time to draw a line under it, get a deal and move in. This will be the EU and UKs desire so one will be struck next week. We then leave the EU treaties but will find ourselves effectively living under the same rules we do today anyway rendering the whole thing pointless (but over)

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

We've been over GDP - Ireland's is higher year on year due to stimulation measures like negative interest rates increasing output. They have the challenge of keeping output at that level - if they do them good for them,

This is the problem with these selective stats:
Is Ireland's GDP higher per head than Scotland in 2018? - yes
Is Ireland's debt as a % of GDP lower than that of the U.K. For 2018? yes
What does that mean? - in reality very little, but to a Scottish independence or EU remain propagandist it means Ireland is booming as an independent nation because that's what they want to see.

These are statements you will never see the SNP release or a credible EU remain politician as they don't stand up to scrutiny despite being factually correct. They are happy for the loyal to spout them to anyone who will listen tho.

I wouldn't be anti Scottish independence if the evidence was there to support it - the problem is it isn't and nobody is properly answering the questions. If you want to win any rerun of 2014 then the people you need to convince are not going to blindly accept these statements without proper scrutiny as they were burned in 2016.

As for EU, we are where we are - the vote has been run and there is no point having it again (an overturn would only increase division). In my opinion it's time to draw a line under it, get a deal and move in. This will be the EU and UKs desire so one will be struck next week. We then leave the EU treaties but will find ourselves effectively living under the same rules we do today anyway rendering the whole thing pointless (but over)

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Doubt if it will be over, and the cause of that will be the Leave crazies who have deliberately, calculatedly, stoked up divisions so that they could 'win'.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Doubt if it will be over, and the cause of that will be the Leave crazies who have deliberately, calculatedly, stoked up divisions so that they could 'win'.

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over from the point of view that the referendum result has been implemented and we’ve avoided falling off the no-deal cliff.

fixing the divisions on the other hand has nothing to do with brexit and would require some investment and time into looking at the causes of such divisions (which won’t be done as it’s too hard and would mean one side actually having to talk to the other side with respect and like human beings - something severely lacking in all sides of society).

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

on the 1st of November it’s all over and we move on

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It will never be over.

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

not denying they will find other routes - the point is they would rather not. Combined with keeping their large % of exports to their closest neighbour tariff free they need a deal.

everyone is poorer with a no deal brexit, it won’t be risked so a deal will be struck for the 31st. This is the point I’m making - I’m not making a leave or remain argument, just commenting on what is actually going to happen.

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I agree with you up to the bit about 31 October.

All the same problems existed in March, but we didn't find a last minute deal then.

There are noises about a "pathway" to a deal, but I continue to have my doubts.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...0800992658.jpg


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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

on the 1st of November it’s all over and we move on

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If we've left on the 1st of November then I, and many others, will immediately be starting the campaign to rejoin. You can bet on that. :aok:

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

If we've left on the 1st of November then I, and many others, will immediately be starting the campaign to rejoin. You can bet on that. :aok:

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Start now by telling me why that will be better for me. I think I'm happier in the EU, but I don't really know why.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...0800992658.jpg


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Irish minister last night talking about how much of taxation is self assessed. I think they are close to an agreement. Deal with the tax avoidance later!

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Originally Posted by Cataplana

Irish minister last night talking about how much of taxation is self assessed. I think they are close to an agreement. Deal with the tax avoidance later!

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Crucial for the Tories. They could go along with just about anything so long as they don’t have to pay tax.


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https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/1...mpression=true

This is quite a decent take on the Irish border issue. It's an interesting alternative perspective that paints a picture of the complexity of the situation.

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/1...mpression=true

This is quite a decent take on the Irish border issue. It's an interesting alternative perspective that paints a picture of the complexity of the situation.

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Headline says bad border is a dangerous myth, and article says a border would be bad. :confused:

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/1...mpression=true

This is quite a decent take on the Irish border issue. It's an interesting alternative perspective that paints a picture of the complexity of the situation.

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Very pro Tory / Unionist piece.

Sounds like it’s the UK who has caved to get the talks moved on. EU says their position remains unchanged.


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Originally Posted by southsider

Very pro Tory / Unionist piece.

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I assumed that went without saying given the source.

I still find it interesting to read an opinion and perspective from the other side even if it's not something I agree with.