Musk is an enemy of ordinary Americans. He is a self centred egoist.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
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Musk is an enemy of ordinary Americans. He is a self centred egoist.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
He's a nutter. He looked like a 15 year old after having his first beer when he came on stage at the Trump rally.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim44
Every single day a news headline seems to read that some celebrity is endorsing Harris. Today’s BBC top headline begins with “Harris campaigns with Cardi B in Wisconsin”.
Have I lost touch with reality or is there a reason why we should give a **** who Cardi B, Leonardo Dicaprio, Taylor Swift, or the hundred other celebrities who have piped up think people should vote vote.
Any statesmanship that once existed in American politics is dead and buried. It resembles a reality tv show more than the world’s most powerlful leadership contest these days.
I wish they could both lose.
I read that a large number of early votes is meant to be good for the Dems, who are perceived as being more likely to vote early.Quote:
Originally Posted by BS44
It’s one of Trump’s bugbears - a perfectly legal and acceptable way to cast a vote but as it goes against him, Trump thinks it suggests corruption.
All these stars have millions of followers on various platforms, they are very influential.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul1642
I would say almost nobody bases their vote on a single endorsement but a lot of endorsements can create a narrative and the appearance of momentum. Also the endorsements of so many Republicans is helping create the feeling among republicans that it’s ok this time to vote for a democrat to stop Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul1642
People want to join a group they know has other people like them. And for some people, they might just feel like Cardi B is just like them.
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I think a large turnout is thought to be good for dems as there is thought to be a ceiling for Trumps support. It’s thought he can only win when Dems are apathetic like in 2016 where Hilary didn’t really get people excited and many were stung by Sanders treatment.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
That was the danger with going with Biden. Harris appears to have stopped that.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul1642
I think it’s a common thing there, for public figures to endorse candidates, it also happens in the process to select a presidential candidate as well.
The campaigns of each party also court public figures to donate, support and publicly endorse candidates. Kal Penn talks about it at length in his autobiography, where he was inspired by Barack Obama at such an event in Los Angeles, and ended up volunteering to do a lot of work for the campaign, who were both keen to leverage his relative high profile and also concerned about him being primarily known for Harold and Kumar, and the possible interpretation of supporting drug use.
It's absolutely cringeworthy but it's how the American system works. Politics in a great many countries is a basket case but despite all the rhetoric the vested interests tend not to want to change.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul1642
Look at who gave us Truss and Sunak, to name a few.
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It's not unique to the US, it's been happening in the UK for decades.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul1642
Aye, look at morrissey! 🤣Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg
very much hope you're right :aok:Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Caught the tail end of the news this morning and Trump is ahead in four of the seven swing states. That’s depressing news.
Depends what states. If it doesn’t include MI, WI or PA then it’s all good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim44
No votes counted yet though. I’m convinced polls are wrong anyway.
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In Ozy we trustQuote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
People who know me well don’t trust me.[emoji23]Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibs4185
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The next POTUS? God help us all.
Quote:
“When I say insane asylums, and then I say, Doctor Hannibal Lecter, does anybody know? They go crazy. They say, oh, he brings up these names out of— Well, that's genius. Right. Doctor Hannibal Lecter. There's nobody worse than him. Silence of the Lambs. Who the hell else would even remember that? I have a great memory, but they always hit me. I don't bring it up too much because they have to take such a— he brought up Hannibal Lecter. What does that have to do with this? What is it? It has everything to do with it, right? He was… So I've done something for you for you that I haven't done in 20 speeches. I brought up Doctor Hannibal Lecter and we're allowing him, you watch, you watch these fake people will say again, he brought up Hannibal Lecter has absolutely nothing to do. You know I do the weave, right? The weave. It's genius. You bring up Hannibal Lecter, you mention insane asylum. Hannibal Lecter. You go out, no. There'll be a time in life where the weave won't finish properly at the bottom and then we can talk. But right now it's pure genius. Hey, I have an uncle, my uncle, Uncle John, my father's brother, 41 years at MIT, longest serving professor has so many degrees, he didn't know what the hell to do with them all in the most complicated. I understand a lot of this stuff, you know, I believe in that. Like, I mean, Jack Nicklaus is not gonna produce a bad golfer. Right. You know, that's the way it works. It's just one of those things and it's in the family and it's whatever”
Trump has often claimed his genius comes from his genes, but I'm not so sure. We don't have any evidence that his uncle John ever actually managed to say Person, Woman, Man, Camera, TV in exactly that order.Quote:
Originally Posted by grunt
https://x.com/acyn/status/1852774101...dxJXScFNwz8V4AQuote:
Originally Posted by grunt
It’s a fascinating watch.
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https://x.com/uspollingwatch/status/...dxJXScFNwz8V4A
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The Democrats are celebrating a poll that has Harris two percentage points ahead of Trump in Iowa... on the same day that a different poll had Trump ahead by nine points in the same state.
I think it's best to ignore the polls and just wait to see what the result is.
I'd disregard single polls but there is a massive difference. The poll that had Trump 9 ahead generally has Republic almost a dozen points ahead because they mainly ask republicans so can be disregarded anyway. Selzer is one of the most accurate polls usually, it had Trump well ahead in Iowa last time when he won there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_M
The margin of error is 3% so could go either way. The thing is though Trump should be about 8 ahead here so that's the interesting point. It also looks from the data women are turning out and massively voting Dem. Looks like abortion is going to play a big part in this election
BBC Poll tracker for what its worth.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo
I only posted this because of the quality of the pollster and the fact that she only does Iowa and her track record is impeccable. And it agrees with me.[emoji6][emoji23]Quote:
Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7
I think most polls are basing female turnout on previous elections (what else can they do?) and this election is the first since Roe was overturned.
I also think republicans are flooding the market with biased polls which is mucking up all the averages.
Finally I think the polling companies have over corrected for under estimating Trump last time.
All adds up to me thinking they are massively wrong.
We’ll find out Wednesday morning and as long as she wins I won’t care if I’m right or wrong.[emoji1696][emoji1696][emoji1696]
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The track record of those polls are not equal. I agree though, don’t look at polls now. Look at turnout and the demographics of who has already voted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_M
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Personally I’ve been ignoring polls and tracking betting odds and bookies tend not to be far off when there’s money involved. Off course they could be an element of enticing people to bet a certain way. Sky bet still have Trump as the favourite but odds have shortened. Harris was big favourite on the odds not long after Biden dropped out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Bookies odds only reflect the amount of money placed on a candidate. If Musk decides to bet $20m on Trump tomorrow his odds would get even shorter still without changes whether he is likely to win or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul1642
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Economist had a good piece on the Iowa poll. Basically it’s pretty good at predicting Iowa (4/5) and by how much.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
The real ‘excitement’ is that it has an odd way of predicting a few of the swing states. When applying the swing percentage predicted in Iowa to the likes of Wisconsin it’s been oddly accurate there as well.
The piece clearly pointed out that using Iowa polls for a different state should come with a huge dose of salt and that the recent accuracy and f doing so may well be a fluke (the poll has been running a long time but is largely not digitised so back testing can’t happen). But it has been rather accurate recently so may well be again!
Take from that what you may…
Buy shares in bleach if Trump gets in Toosday.Quote:
Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875