Clicked quote rather than reply rather.Quote:
Originally Posted by stokesmessiah
Mine was a general point about not getting dragged into this cluster ****.
Not intended as a response to your post.
J
Clicked quote rather than reply rather.Quote:
Originally Posted by stokesmessiah
Mine was a general point about not getting dragged into this cluster ****.
Not intended as a response to your post.
J
Yet US oil imports have dropped to a 30 year low with the majority of it met by Canada, Mexico and Columbia and their OPEC imports continue to drop substantially.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
In other words Middle Eastern oil is now of much more importance to the Far East than it is to the US, hence why we saw Abe trying to soothe tensions this week.
The Sauds have a lot to gain from this. US destroys Iran and oil prices rise.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye
I had actually thought of posting this after my previously post, you are absolutely correct and there already is proxy conflict between Saudi and Iran in Yemen and in various other locations over the years.Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLake
Surprised no one is blaming the SNP. :greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by GreenLake
It would increase the price of Brent crude too so we can't rule them out. :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg
Not sure the Saudi’s really want that much disruption to their 7 million barrels a day export business.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye
And making a very brave assumption that ‘destroying’ Iran would somehow resolve the Middle East tensions then there would be even more oil available for export from across the region.
The current situation of not having Iranian oil on the global market suits the Saudi’s quite nicely I’d imagine.
Fair points.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
I think there are quite a lot of balls for the House of Saud to juggle.
There is the purely pragmatic financial need to export oil, in a world increasingly turned onto shifting as quickly as possible from fossil fuels.
There is a need to rebalance their economy and pressure to shift towards more progressive social policy, not least of all in the treatment of women.
Their government is a complex and labyrinthine world of familial relationships and there is a counter-reaction from clerics against any progressivism.
The main state actors in the region, including Saudi, whilst autonomous in many respects are also being used to some extent, as proxies, by the US, Russia and China
And there is perhaps the most challenging and complex issue to manage - Saudi is very much a champion for the Sunni cause, pitted against Iran championing the Shi’a cause. Sectarian conflict and strife dictates foreign policy even though it perhaps isn’t pragmatically in their interest but as history shows us, the mistrust and hatred of sectarianism can quite easily trump level-headedness and realpolitik.
.
Ach who would want to be a rich Saudi with all those balls to juggle! [emoji38]Quote:
Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye
Your post is a timely reminder though that the situation can’t just be boiled down to one liners like America bad or Iran bad...it’s a more like a nest of multi headed vipers where they are all armed and dangerous!
FWIW I reckon the Iranians are at it here with these tankers. Partaking in a bit of sabre rattling and reminding the US that their carrier fleets and ultra modern jets might look good but a little bit of cunning and a few small speed boats can be just as effective in causing disruption. Their denials also sound like they have been written by Putin who must be chuckling away at the spat his pals have caused.
So if I was to guess (and as per your post who can really do anything otherwise with the Middle East shenanigans) they are simply delivering a timely reminder that they won’t be pushed around or brow beaten by Trump and his ever eager allies.
The world is awash with oil and the price could fall well below $40. The Saudis need to keep the Riyal's peg to the US dollar or the US will abandon them. This is all about petrodollars. A big fall in the price of oil with a rising US dollar will be devastating. They have a lot to gain from trouble in the Hormuz straights providing the US Navy is able to stop Iran closing it.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
Oh no doubt the Saudi’s want a high oil price in general although there is plenty of evidence that it was the Saudi’s that were at least partly responsible for crashing the price recently in a failed attempt to drove the shale producers out of the market.Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLake
Seems to me though that orchestrating trouble in the Hormuz and deliberately trying to agitate Iran / US discourse is an extremely risky route to take in order to raise the price of oil.
Wouldn’t put it past them of course and as I said before there is always many actors with many agendas at play in that arena so anything is possible.
Yes, it was them that crashed the price. At the time, I thought it was them and their gulf allies trying to put the hurt on Russia as well as shale producers with the US quietly enjoying the pain inflicted on Venezuela and Iran while making sure the shale guys survived. I don't think the Saudis expected the price to fall so far or for so long. Maybe they thought Russia would fold on Syria. The balance now seems to be the shale producers act like a safety valve capping the price not too far over $40 where they start making profits. The US has played a blinder there and wrecked OPEC's control. The shale producers are probably going to be magically resurrected after each bankruptcy and those must be coming soon. Once their debts are written off buyers will take over lean and mean little frackers with free capital equipment. It's extremely complicated but good luck to anyone willing to trade oil futures.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Mohammed Morsi murdered surprise surprise.
Morsi, who became Egypt's first democratically elected leader after winning polls in 2012, had already been sentenced to more than 45 years in prison in three separate trials, including leading an outlawed group, detention and torture of anti-government protesters and leaking state secrets.
issued a decree granting himself powers above any court
he will be sadly missed by the terrorists, especially another Dictator,Erdogan
Sorry if already posted. Just watching Mike Pompeo giving a news conference in Florida on CNN. The US have sent an additional 1000 troops to the area to curb Iranian aggression. But the US dont want war.
They released a more detailed picture of the Iranian special forces on a stealth mission wearing bright red life jackets.
Attachment 22195
[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLake
Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk
That's the false flag team.Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLake
Keep an eye on the value of brent crude over the coming months.Quote:
Originally Posted by stokesmessiah
I just became an American Citizen an hour ago. I have no idea who these Iranians were or why they wore red lifejackets. 🇺🇸😎Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Now Iran have shot a US drone out of the sky. US say it was in international air space, Iran say it was over their territory.
Well i'm sure the US could provide the tracking data to back up their claim, but I have a feeling they won't....Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
Because Iran have been forthcoming with the same information...that bastion of truth, human rights obedience and goodwill that is the Iranian State. Perhaps they're too busy violating the nuclear deal, accumulating enriched uranium beyond their agreed capacity to take the time to release that information.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Also, you went very quiet on this entire subject after the footage of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard recovering a mine from the side of one of the tankers...actors of Middle Eastern descent hired by the US government to stitch Iran up?
Was that the stealth mission with everyone in bright red life vests?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
How would Iran go about providing the tracking data when it's not their drone?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
You'd think in 2019 and the introduction of high definition cameras, not to mention "colour". They'd have caught better footage than that.
Iran were clearly tracking the drone to take it down. If they've used a SAM to take it down, their systems will know precisely when they "lost" contact with the missile that took it down.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
So you're suggesting what, the video was a fake? Based on what evidence?
We don't know how they took it down though, do we? You'd think the US would be eager to prove themselves however, seeing as they're the one claiming it was destroyed in international air space.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
What evidence do you have to suggest that it wasn't set up? You got better video quality over 80 years ago. Did one of them not have an iphone on hand or something? After all, it's a pretty damn important piece of footage to capture if it's not a set up. Sheer lack of detail is very convenient when trying to fool people with a set up.
4 times the US threatened to stage something and blame it on Iran.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhqLaYBtvXA
iPhone?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
I would suggest the footage came from a drone...similar to the one that was shot down or the Reaper that was also attempted to be downed when observing one of the tankers.