Brexit - What Now.

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

What is his position (daft question I know!)?

As far as I can tell it’s that he still backs Brexit but will only call a second ref on a revised deal and only if that’s after a GE?

But he has no position on what happens without a GE?

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He's previously said that if he can't get the deal Labour wants or a GE then he'll back a second ref, as that's the party policy.

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

What is his position (daft question I know!)?

As far as I can tell it’s that he still backs Brexit but will only call a second ref on a revised deal and only if that’s after a GE?

But he has no position on what happens without a GE?

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His position is about as clear as mud.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

He's previously said that if he can't get the deal Labour wants or a GE then he'll back a second ref, as that's the party policy.

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Hmm OK but neither of those things have happened and seem rather unlikely to do basically he has no position?

Ach I give up [emoji2957]

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

What is his position (daft question I know!)?

As far as I can tell it’s that he still backs Brexit but will only call a second ref on a revised deal and only if that’s after a GE?

But he has no position on what happens without a GE?

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He's actively doing his best to avoid becoming the next PM. As i've said before, he doesn't want to be in a position where he actually has to impliment what he preaches from the side lines.

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

Hmm OK but neither of those things have happened and seem rather unlikely to do basically he has no position?

Ach I give up [emoji2957]

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He's been perfectly clear! Honestly, some people ...

He wants a GE and a Labour Brexit but he supports a public vote (without specifying any of the options) being kept on the table to stop no deal or a "bad Tory" Brexit.

There, couldn't be clearer! :agree:

It looks like Lab are inching towards ref2

Corbyn in email to Lab MPs leaked to Sky -

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"the deadlock in Parliament can now only be broken by the issue going back to the people through a general election or a public vote. We are ready to support a public vote on any deal"

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McDonnell on camera to Sky -

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"Of course we want a GE highly unlikely Tories will go for that now after the results last night. Turkeys don’t vote for Xmas. Our only option now is go back to the people in a referendum and that is the position we’re in now"

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

He's been perfectly clear! Honestly, some people ...

He wants a GE and a Labour Brexit but he supports a public vote (without specifying any of the options) being kept on the table to stop no deal or a "bad Tory" Brexit.

There, couldn't be clearer! :agree:

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That’s clarified nicely thanks [emoji2957]

My thoughts are a 'No Deal' Tory leader is now a certainty.

Parliament will never endorse 'No Deal' but as its the default position I'd expect whoever the next PM is will take us to the cliff edge.

Will parliament Revoke rather than see that happen? No idea but a compromise such as a 2nd Referendum looks far off IMO.

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Originally Posted by BroxburnHibee

My thoughts are a 'No Deal' Tory leader is now a certainty.

Parliament will never endorse 'No Deal' but as its the default position I'd expect whoever the next PM is will take us to the cliff edge.

Will parliament Revoke rather than see that happen? No idea but a compromise such as a 2nd Referendum looks far off IMO.

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Remain vs No Deal. I'm just going to take the day off for the day after that one cause there's no way I'd be sleeping.

If we actually vote for no deal then goodnight UK, you're done.

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

Remain vs No Deal. I'm just going to take the day off for the day after that one cause there's no way I'd be sleeping.

If we actually vote for no deal then goodnight UK, you're done.

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I'm in no way a fan of a no deal Brexit but I've always thought that it would be preferable to embrace it (tackle the problems head on, pursue whichever opportunities it may present) and be led by people who 100% believe in it than to go for some sort of halfway fudge that is vastly inferior to what we already have, doesn't please the other side. doesn't afford us any opportunity and doesn't actually satisfy anyone.

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Originally Posted by Smartie

I'm in no way a fan of a no deal Brexit but I've always thought that it would be preferable to embrace it (tackle the problems head on, pursue whichever opportunities it may present) and be led by people who 100% believe in it than to go for some sort of halfway fudge that is vastly inferior to what we already have, doesn't please the other side. doesn't afford us any opportunity and doesn't actually satisfy anyone.

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The problem is that those at the front leading the fight for Brexit want nothing to do with the actual nitty gritty that involves making it a success.

I would have to say that Ozyhibby called it right a while back.

In the circumstances we are in, any new Tory leader almost certainly is forced into a GE whether they want it or not.

Labour, under Yvette Cooper, standing on a slate of national unity to prevent Brexit and essentially forcing the Lib Dems and Greens to sign up formally or informally, trumps the Leave vote, especially when the Tories are riven. I think the only way they can appease all shades of pro-Leave is through someone like Raab, which automatically loses them their Remain voters and maybe some of the soft leavers. Anyone else is spinning plates and will lose votes to Farage in one direction and the Lib Dem’s in the other.

With Cable standing down, there is a big opportunity for Jo Swinson to propel herself forward. I think Ed Davey is tarnished more by association with the Coalition. Interesting times.

EDIT: and meant to add, Labour need to do the sensible thing and bin Jeremy and elect someone who is competent and electable, i.e. Yvonne Cooper

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Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye

I would have to say that Ozyhibby called it right a while back.

In the circumstances we are in, any new Tory leader almost certainly is forced into a GE whether they want it or not.

Labour, under Yvette Cooper, standing on a slate of national unity to prevent Brexit and essentially forcing the Lib Dems and Greens to sign up formally or informally, trumps the Leave vote, especially when the Tories are riven. I think the only way they can appease all shades of pro-Leave is through someone like Raab, which automatically loses them their Remain voters and maybe some of the soft leavers. Anyone else is spinning plates and will lose votes to Farage in one direction and the Lib Dem’s in the other.

With Cable standing down, there is a big opportunity for Jo Swinson to propel herself forward. I think Ed Davey is tarnished more by association with the Coalition. Interesting times.

EDIT: and meant to add, Labour need to do the sensible thing and bin Jeremy and elect someone who is competent and electable, i.e. Yvonne Cooper

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I still can’t see there being a general election, the results from last night will have terrified the tories, it would be political suicide. We live in strange times though and absolutely nothing can be ruled in or out.

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Originally Posted by lord bunberry

I still can’t see there being a general election, the results from last night will have terrified the tories, it would be political suicide. We live in strange times though and absolutely nothing can be ruled in or out.

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If it looks like heading for no deal then there are enough Tory remainers willing to vote against the govt in a no confidence motion. A GE may not be what they want but they may not be able to avoid it if they go for no deal. If Johnson gets in I can see him trying to sell something very like May’s deal because he won’t want to be a PM that lasts only a couple of months.
Ask me tomorrow and I’ll tell you something else.[emoji23] It’s impossible to tell what’s going to happen. There are so many moving parts in this.


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When Thatcher was deposed as leader of the Tories, John Major was appointed as a patsy because of the expectation that Labour would win the next GE. Of course, Sheffield and "Well, all right" etc saw to it that Major did win, but I have a niggling thought that something similar might happen this time.

Maybe Fife-Hibees' fondness of all things conspiratorial has permeated my brain :wink: but I have a niggling idea that a cunning plan may be about to unfold.

Could the Tories appoint a sacrificial dark horse as PM who would call, and lose, a GE so that Labour can pull the plug on Brexit and then suffer the consequences if future polls?

Too much tin foil?

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Originally Posted by Hibbyradge

When Thatcher was deposed as leader of the Tories, John Major was appointed as a patsy because of the expectation that Labour would win the next GE. Of course, Sheffield and "Well, all right" etc saw to it that Major did win, but I have a niggling thought that something similar might happen this time.

Maybe Fife-Hibees' fondness of all things conspiratorial has permeated my brain :wink: but I have a niggling idea that a cunning plan may be about to unfold.

Could the Tories appoint a sacrificial dark horse as PM who would call, and lose, a GE so that Labour can pull the plug on Brexit and then suffer the consequences if future polls?

Too much tin foil?

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That involves politicians losing their jobs, including Johnson. Unlikely. And it’s unlikely that is why Major won as well.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

That involves politicians losing their jobs, including Johnson. Unlikely. And it’s unlikely that is why Major won as well.


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I know it's unlikely, but the Tories will be expecting to lose seats next time out anyway, and they've still got Brexit to deal with.

May got the top job because no-one else wanted to touch Brexit. That particular poisoned chalice hasn't gone away and there's a lot more political blood to be spilled before it does.

The temptation to pass the responsibility to Labour must be great and the people who really control the Tory party are calculating strategists. A few casualties now might be a price worth paying in the longer term.

And here's the thing about conspiracy theories. The more you go down the rabbit hole, the more plausible the theory gets.

I've fair convinced myself. :hilarious

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Originally Posted by Hibbyradge

When Thatcher was deposed as leader of the Tories, John Major was appointed as a patsy because of the expectation that Labour would win the next GE. Of course, Sheffield and "Well, all right" etc saw to it that Major did win, but I have a niggling thought that something similar might happen this time.

Maybe Fife-Hibees' fondness of all things conspiratorial has permeated my brain :wink: but I have a niggling idea that a cunning plan may be about to unfold.

Could the Tories appoint a sacrificial dark horse as PM who would call, and lose, a GE so that Labour can pull the plug on Brexit and then suffer the consequences if future polls?

Too much tin foil?

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I think may was supposed to be that very patsy but she ended up embroiled in some weird half in half out deal that suited very few of the tory half wits.

Every party has folk devising deep thinker stratagem with worst case scenarios part of any planning.

Jeremy decided sitting on the fence was our plan for now which wasn't the worst by any means. Gives us scope for whatever materialises abeit not everyone agrees.

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Originally Posted by Tornadoes70

I think may was supposed to be that very patsy but she ended up embroiled in some weird half in half out deal that suited very few of the tory half wits.

Every party has folk devising deep thinker stratagem with worst case scenarios part of any planning.

Jeremy decided sitting on the fence was our plan for now which wasn't the worst by any means. Gives us scope for whatever materialises abeit not everyone agrees.

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Jeremy fence sitting has delivered the worst election results for his party ever at a time when the Tories fared even worse.

I don't know whether to admire your loyalty or pity your stubborn refusal to recognise the truth.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

If it looks like heading for no deal then there are enough Tory remainers willing to vote against the govt in a no confidence motion. A GE may not be what they want but they may not be able to avoid it if they go for no deal. If Johnson gets in I can see him trying to sell something very like May’s deal because he won’t want to be a PM that lasts only a couple of months.
Ask me tomorrow and I’ll tell you something else.[emoji23] It’s impossible to tell what’s going to happen. There are so many moving parts in this.


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If there’s a general election after a no confidence vote, who would be speaking and negotiating for the country? Is it not possible that we could fall out with no deal due to us running out of time to get a new government elected? I’m not old enough to remember what happened the last time there was a no confidence vote, so I’ve genuinely no idea.

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Originally Posted by Hibbyradge

Jeremy fence sitting has delivered the worst election results for his party ever at a time when the Tories fared even worse.

I don't know whether to admire your loyalty or pity your stubborn refusal to recognise the truth.

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If a general election were to be called Jeremy would be the next PM. I'm in no doubt whatsoever about that sooner or later.

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Originally Posted by Hibbyradge

Jeremy fence sitting has delivered the worst election results for his party ever at a time when the Tories fared even worse.

I don't know whether to admire your loyalty or pity your stubborn refusal to recognise the truth.

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That’s the 4th set of elections he has lost as party leader including losing the Theresa May in a GE. And still the Labour Party keep him. Seems they would rather be a party of protest rather than power. He is unelectable.


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Originally Posted by Tornadoes70

If a general election were called Jeremy would be the next PM. I'm in no doubt whatsoever about that.

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He’s already lost one and that was to Theresa May ffs.


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Originally Posted by Tornadoes70

If a general election were to be called Jeremy would be the next PM. I'm in no doubt whatsoever about that sooner or later.

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Nigel.

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Originally Posted by Tornadoes70

If a general election were to be called Jeremy would be the next PM. I'm in no doubt whatsoever about that sooner or later.

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What is that confidence based on? The voting public don’t seem to see the long game he is playing.

I can see the parallels between Corbyn & Arsene Wenger in the second half of his time at Arsenal. Wenger didn’t move with the times, stuck rigidly to his footballing philosophy and was left behind as a dinosaur when football evolved and he didn’t. Becoming not relevant when it came to winning and competing for the big trophies.

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Originally Posted by The Modfather

What is that confidence based on? The voting public don’t seem to see the long game he is playing.

I can see the parallels between Corbyn & Arsene Wenger in the second half of his time at Arsenal. Wenger didn’t move with the times, stuck rigidly to his footballing philosophy and was left behind as a dinosaur when football evolved and he didn’t. Becoming not relevant when it came to winning and competing for the big trophies.

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Using football analogies on a politics thread, wow, HR will be along any minute taking issue that we're not proper debaters :greengrin.

Correct, Jeremy is traditional Labour and is very strong on delivering public services and an economy that works for the many not the few.

Separatism would deliver massive cuts to public services while devastating the Scottish economy for some time thereafter and who knows when the economy would pick up again. The poorest in Scotland would be hardest hit as those with money could either move physically or move their money to safer havens. If that doesn't matter to you by all means carry on regardless.

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Originally Posted by lord bunberry

I think we’ll leave with no deal at the end of October. There will be an independence referendum soon after and Scotland will leave the UK.

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This, especially if Boris becomes PM

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Originally Posted by Tornadoes70

Using football analogies on a politics thread, wow, HR will be along any minute taking issue that we're not proper debaters :greengrin.

Correct, Jeremy is traditional Labour and is very strong on delivering public services and an economy that works for the many not the few.

Separatism would deliver massive cuts to public services while devastating the Scottish economy for some time thereafter and who knows when the economy would pick up again. The poorest in Scotland would be hardest hit as those with money could either move physically or move their money to safer havens. If that doesn't matter to you by all means carry on regardless.

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Your thoughts on Scottish Independence are well noted on here, but unless you’re saying he will win a general election because Scottish independence is bad, it’s of no relevance to why he would win a general election.

I was curious why the trend is for Labour to get fewer and fewer votes but you’re still confident he would win a general election? What would make the masses who aren’t voting for a Labour now suddenly vote for him to become the next PM?

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Originally Posted by Hibbyradge

When Thatcher was deposed as leader of the Tories, John Major was appointed as a patsy because of the expectation that Labour would win the next GE. Of course, Sheffield and "Well, all right" etc saw to it that Major did win, but I have a niggling thought that something similar might happen this time.

Maybe Fife-Hibees' fondness of all things conspiratorial has permeated my brain :wink: but I have a niggling idea that a cunning plan may be about to unfold.

Could the Tories appoint a sacrificial dark horse as PM who would call, and lose, a GE so that Labour can pull the plug on Brexit and then suffer the consequences if future polls?

Too much tin foil?

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Now you're starting to get it. :wink:

However, I don't see Labour pulling the plug on Brexit. Both parties don't want to be the next party in government to deal with any of this mess. It's no coincidence that the popularity of both parties are at rock bottom, neither wants to form the next government. It's a poisoned chalice and they both know it.

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Originally Posted by Hibbyradge

I know it's unlikely, but the Tories will be expecting to lose seats next time out anyway, and they've still got Brexit to deal with.

May got the top job because no-one else wanted to touch Brexit. That particular poisoned chalice hasn't gone away and there's a lot more political blood to be spilled before it does.

The temptation to pass the responsibility to Labour must be great and the people who really control the Tory party are calculating strategists. A few casualties now might be a price worth paying in the longer term.

And here's the thing about conspiracy theories. The more you go down the rabbit hole, the more plausible the theory gets.

I've fair convinced myself. :hilarious

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I think that might be true if they thought Labour had what they would consider a sensible Blairite in charge. They are petrified of Corbyn and McDonnell though. Not in electoral terms, but what they might do if they get into power.