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I fancy Leicester to win tonight. Newcastle have only won 2 of 16 premier league away games this season. Leicester beat them 2-0 at St James' Park earlier in the season and I think it will be the same scoreline tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by superfurryhibby
I would want better than 4/6, 3/1 the draw or 11/2 Newcastle to have a bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibeesmad
Finished near the back again after fading badly in the final furlong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
I'll probably back Leicester HT/FT at 7/5Quote:
Originally Posted by Killiehibbie
A few going 13/8 for that. Squeeze every last penny you can out of them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibeesmad
Yes maybe. I've said they may win, but I'm very cautious these days and there's enough doubts for me to say "No bet"Quote:
Originally Posted by superfurryhibby
--9th/11th Bottom 3 again..Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
The main thing for me is to cut out all the old ways.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGreenMan
Handicaps
wrong going/ground
Second legs of cup games
Draws
Accumulators and lots more
I have a full time job and whilst my betting is showing profit after decades of losses I'm not treating it as a job. Although when I retire I may well put in far more work. I'm not a great lover of stats. Recent form, fitness, breeding, injuries etc. are more important. I think it's possible to make a few bob by learning from your mistakes. Discipline is everything
Spot on. I’m slowly learning. Don’t get me wrong, it wasn’t long ago I took £696 from a fiver and I had a ridiculous run of winning circa £400 from £20 bets but it’s unsustainable. For now it’s doubles and singles. I’m trying to keep a steady bank of £40 in my account and any profit above that is immediately withdrawn into my bank account.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby
My latest p&l for the last 7 days shows a profit of £450.
Leicester vs Newcastle
Over 1.5 goals
5+ Leicester corners
3+ Newcastle corners
1+ booking for each team
9/4 with Skybet.
Vintage clouds has a shot tomorrow in the Scottish national. Good horse although it fell last week , 10/1 is decent.
I'm not a gambler at all, I did the match betting thing maybe 2 years ago and made approx £600 but that's just using the bookies offers/betting exchange, and then closed all the various bookie accounts afterwards.
Regarding accumulator bets it doesn't need saying that people are largely throwing a fiver here a tenner there into the bookies pockets, and sooner or later another "999BET.com" online site will appear.
Football accum bet chances if each match had level odds.
Single - 1 in 3
Double - 1 in 9
Treble - 1 in 27
4 team - 1 in 81
5 team - 1 in 243
6 team - 1 in 729
7 team - 1 in 2,187
8 team - 1 in 6,561
9 team - 1 in 19,683
One of my mates has a gambling problem I am fairly certain, but he still lives with his folks so he can afford it lol
Leicester's performance this evening reminded me of the Calderwood days. Probably the worst performance I've seen this season. ShockerQuote:
Originally Posted by Hibeesmad
I started matched betting 3 years ago and now do it full time. Why did you close down your accounts?Quote:
Originally Posted by seanshow
I done matched betting gets a sore head after first while trying to get offers
For those of us who don't know about racing, why do you avoid handicap races? Are they much more unpredictable?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby
The horses handicap rating is based on previous performances and is the opinion of one man "the handicapper" All the horses in a race are handicapped (carrying extra weight) relative to each other so theoretically they should all finish in a dead heat. Its an easy system to manipulate by a shrewd trainer, the great Martin Pipe's autobiography tells how he legally did this. Its a system with too many variables, so for me its a no go area.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba
I see. Thanks for that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby
Thoughts on Leicester v Newcastle
It seemed to me anyway that Leicester were not the "nailed on" certainties that some thought. I wasn't as sure as I could be of a win so the money stayed in my account, that's a result and one of the first and most important lessons to learn. YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET. That's a great weapon in the tussle with the bookies. The game last night was the only one in England and also televised so there was always going to be a rush to get bets on this particular game.
Remember YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET
Secondly, as there wasn't a great deal to choose from, this game attracted lots of half time/full time bets or even worse "win both halves" bets. This is the classic "I need a better price" syndrome. You are effectively turning a single bet into a double where two outcomes are required. There were many people who fancied Chelsea the other night but because they wanted a little bit more money returned they went for these type of bets. The outcome...Chelsea, who they fancied to win, did indeed win but they did their cash through falling into the trap of looking for better prices.
I see it all the time with people at work. They'll go online, pick out two or three teams they think will win but when they see a return of maybe 100/30 or 9/2 for example they think "not enough" and add another couple of teams, solely to boost the price.
Earlier on, "Scorrie" told us no profit is too small. Excellent quote. If you've made your choice and are willing to put money down to back that choice up then stick with it. Looking for a bigger return inevitably leads to losing.
I hope nobody sees this as patronising or condescending (never really understood the difference so take your pick) :greengrin The purpose of this thread was to advise/give thoughts/maybe help others. Anyway as I said, just my thoughts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
Can I ask what your thoughts are on breeding. I'll only bet in Group/Grade races so I can be assured (as much as anyone can) that the horses are of decent stock and (should) all be trying.
Horses are naturally pack animals and have leaders and followers. Could this explain why some have a string of seconds and thirds to their name? They are followers, and those who battle to the line are leaders? Maybe these traits are bred out of the line over generations? It's something I'd like to learn more about.
I was one. To go HT/FT on an away side, you have to be very confident, and, to be fair, I was with Chelsea. HT/FT has to be on a team who are as close as possible to a certainty, otherwise it's too big a risk for cautious betters. I have HT/FT today on Spurs, Ajax and Peterhead - all at home - and even then a tenner only returns just over thirty quid. It might end up they all win but aren't ahead at half time, but, for a small stake, I'm willing to take the gamble. You have to decide whether the extra risk is worth the extra return, and the odds on a straight treble with the three mentioned teams are so small, and the chances of a first half lead so good, that it's worth it. I wouldn't go large on such a bet, however. It's all relative of risk/reward.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby
I should I also have those three to win FT as part of a larger accumulator - hedging my bets :wink:
Of course it is :agree:Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba
I'm not trying to tell people how to bet but just pointing out a few relevant facts. As today, the treble you fancy to win has effectively now become a six outcome accumulator with odds of just over 2/1. I know you know that!
Hope it comes in for you. Good luck :wink:
HT/FT is always risky, even when a game looks a foregone conclusion: Huddersfield might defend for their lives today and hold out for 85 minutes; you just never know. Hence I will only put a few quid on such a bet. The key is to ask yourself whether a losing bet would hurt you. If yes, don't risk it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby
[QUOTE=EskbankHibby;5763471]With this in mind I would say that I steer clear of multi team accumulators nowadays, that's my biggest lesson learned over the last year or so.
Singles and doubles only, I stick to this fairly rigidly now. Broke that rule last week with a treble and let down by the shortest odds team, irritating but reinforced the need for discipline.[/QUOTE
Never bet anything shorter than 1\2 and that is probably still too short. Bookies love a Celtic Man City or Liverpool draw when they were between 1/7 or even seen City at 1\25 leave them well alone.
Another tip I would give from bitter experience is don't bet on matches from leagues you aren't familiar with, just because the odds look good. This is very true of Scandinavian football, for example, where the teams tend to be quite well matched. Just because a side is a short odds favourite, don't take that as a banker. Do your homework first: form, league table etc.
What we thinking about Bournemouth at 23/10 away to Brighton?
Always put different teams in each acca no matter how strong you think a selection is as one wrong un can drag all your accas down
Basic I know!
I know you're being careful to avoid sounding condescending so this isn't meant as a criticism, just an observation on the differing perspectives on gambling. It's clear that you're viewing gambling as a challenge where you're aiming to make a profit over an extended period of time and your advice is based on that - which is fine for people who want to try to do the same although my broad view on that is that beating the bookies over an extended period is extremely difficult and if you do they'll close your account anyway!Quote:
Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby
I come at it from a different angle (and I suspect many other "fun" gamblers do too) where to me it's a form of entertainment, and the money I spend I view like paying for a sky subscription or a cinema ticket or whatever - it's the cost of that entertainment. So if I stick a quid on a ridiculous combination of corners / cards / goals / player to score etc I have low expectations of actually winning (especially on those types of bet which are basically just free money for the bookies) but it makes watching a match I would otherwise have no interest in really quite entertaining. Same goes for accas - 7 match over 2.5 goals accas are terrible value but they're fun if you start getting a few in and are holding out for a goal or two in the last five minutes. That doesn't mean I'm setting out to lose obviously and it's nice when the occasional glory bet comes in but that's very much a hope rather than an expectation.
So whilst it might look silly to you that work colleagues are adding extra selections to build a glory acca, it's perfectly possible that they're also looking at you and saying "look at that dafty trying to beat the bookies with a bunch of boring bets"!
My little tale of woe from the other night - I had a Lucky Fifteen on four correct scores on Wednesday night (£3 to return £1700 if they all came in) and in to injury time three were on track for a return of £199.80. I was sitting looking at the cash out at £150 debating whether to press the button when Reading scored 6 minutes and 20 seconds in to 6 minutes of injury time to scupper it and drop the returns to £19.80. So that's either a salutary lesson in how daft multiple bets are, or it shows you how much fun you can have for 3 quid - it's all a matter of perspective!
ps I'll still follow this thread as the sensible advice is appreciated - however I'll undoubtedly take sensible selections and put them into bonkers accas...
For me..home win or draw..no betQuote:
Originally Posted by HibeeMackenzie
I actually find the English leagues a nightmare. Everyone beats everyone, much harder to predict.
I like sooccerstats for a quick bit of research, you can see the last 6 games form in an instant.