Parole Board chair 'confident Worboys will not re-offend' ....

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Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy

With guys like this, i just dont understand why we, as a society, should take the risk?

Even if there is a very small chance he will reoffend, it is too big a risk imo.

I know we aim for rehabilitation etc, not at the expense of ANY risk to the public.

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If we kept everyone in who posed ANY risk to the public we’d need prisons on every street in the land!

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Originally Posted by Steve-O

If we kept everyone in who posed ANY risk to the public we’d need prisons on every street in the land!

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Clearly, but like any risk there are differing levels, how this guy has been classed obviously as very low to minimal seems beyond belief to most people.

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Originally Posted by Steve-O

Do you and others on here have access to ANY of the information before the Parole Board?

You’re all attacking people who have all the relevant information for their confidence in a decision, and yet with zero information you are all 100% confident the decision is wrong!

An indeterminate sentence just means that someone won’t be released until they are ready to be released. Rather than be released too early having done no rehabilitation work. Clearly this guy has completed the prescribed rehab successfully. Time will tell if the decision is right or wrong of course.

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This guy should never be released. I don’t care how rehabilitated some people think he is. He’s probably one of the worst sex offenders this country has ever seen.

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Originally Posted by Scouse Hibby

Clearly, but like any risk there are differing levels, how this guy has been classed obviously as very low to minimal seems beyond belief to most people.

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Parole Board decisions here are essentially publicly available documents. It’d probably be useful if they were in the UK too so that the public could at least get an insight.

But, the public perception that the Board members are completely out of touch with reality is, I would suggest, most likely to be incorrect.

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Originally Posted by lord bunberry

This guy should never be released. I don’t care how rehabilitated some people think he is. He’s probably one of the worst sex offenders this country has ever seen.

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I don’t think that is true. IF all of the allegations had been proven, then you might be right, but you can’t detain people on the basis of accusations alone.

I also note he’s ‘only’ got 1 charge of rape, which was a surprise to me. What are the other offences?

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Originally Posted by Steve-O

If we kept everyone in who posed ANY risk to the public we’d need prisons on every street in the land!

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Yeah fair point, but he wad already in situ, had a cell in the nonce wing, and we are choosing to let him out. Obviously you cant lock eveyone up, and many people who pose a risk will never act on it, but he has, repeatedly, and sex offending seems more of a mental disorder where people act on compulsion, as opposed to say some guy who is a bit of a bam if provoked with a drink in him in the pub who may lay one on somebody. So i think itnis unlikely he has been cured of his disorder.

Im no criminologist though, and i appreciate that there may be oractical, and legal difficulties.

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Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy

Yeah fair point, but he wad already in situ, had a cell in the nonce wing, and we are choosing to let him out. Obviously you cant lock eveyone up, and many people who pose a risk will never act on it, but he has, repeatedly, and sex offending seems more of a mental disorder where people act on compulsion, as opposed to say some guy who is a bit of a bam if provoked with a drink in him in the pub who may lay one on somebody. So i think itnis unlikely he has been cured of his disorder.

Im no criminologist though, and i appreciate that there may be oractical, and legal difficulties.

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It is possible for sex offenders to learn to manage their impulses. That is really what the treatment is all about, rather than offering a ‘cure’ as such. Treat programmes do not deluded themselves into thinking men with high sex drives (to the point they’ll offend to get it) will suddenly lose interest in sex via counselling or the like. It’s about how to appropriately act on the drive etc etc.

The media will always report the heinous cases where people reoffend but they don’t report the many others who don’t reoffend on release. Reoffending rates for sexual offending are actually reasonably low I believe. Certainly much lower than the popular perception of every single one of them reoffending rapidly!

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Originally Posted by Steve-O

It is possible for sex offenders to learn to manage their impulses. That is really what the treatment is all about, rather than offering a ‘cure’ as such. Treat programmes do not deluded themselves into thinking men with high sex drives (to the point they’ll offend to get it) will suddenly lose interest in sex via counselling or the like. It’s about how to appropriately act on the drive etc etc.

The media will always report the heinous cases where people reoffend but they don’t report the many others who don’t reoffend on release. Reoffending rates for sexual offending are actually reasonably low I believe. Certainly much lower than the popular perception of every single one of them reoffending rapidly!

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That's an interesting point, are there any statistics to show low reoffending rates from sex offenders?

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Originally Posted by Scouse Hibby

That's an interesting point, are there any statistics to show low reoffending rates from sex offenders?

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A study in 2004 that looked at circa 32000 cases found a reoffending rate of 13.7% for sexual offences and 36.9% for all offences over a 5 year period.

26% was the average reoffending rate in 2013.

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Originally Posted by Steve-O

It is possible for sex offenders to learn to manage their impulses. That is really what the treatment is all about, rather than offering a ‘cure’ as such. Treat programmes do not deluded themselves into thinking men with high sex drives (to the point they’ll offend to get it) will suddenly lose interest in sex via counselling or the like. It’s about how to appropriately act on the drive etc etc.

The media will always report the heinous cases where people reoffend but they don’t report the many others who don’t reoffend on release. Reoffending rates for sexual offending are actually reasonably low I believe. Certainly much lower than the popular perception of every single one of them reoffending rapidly!

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You make a fair point. Its a good lesson as to why we shpuldnt engage in hyperbole based on media storms, something i try to avoid but i was guilty of here!

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

A study in 2004 that looked at circa 32000 cases found a reoffending rate of 13.7% for sexual offences and 36.9% for all offences over a 5 year period.

26% was the average reoffending rate in 2013.

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👍

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Originally Posted by Steve-O

I don’t think that is true. IF all of the allegations had been proven, then you might be right, but you can’t detain people on the basis of accusations alone.

I also note he’s ‘only’ got 1 charge of rape, which was a surprise to me. What are the other offences?

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Sexual assault and drugging women. Most of the women have no recollection of what happened as they were drugged.

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

A study in 2004 that looked at circa 32000 cases found a reoffending rate of 13.7% for sexual offences and 36.9% for all offences over a 5 year period.

26% was the average reoffending rate in 2013.

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Cheers. As I said, pretty low rates overall.

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Originally Posted by Steve-O

Cheers. As I said, pretty low rates overall.

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A low rate can still mean a large number of victims.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

A low rate can still mean a large number of victims.

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Not saying there will be no further victims, just saying statistics suggest the large majority of sex offenders do not reoffend, contrary to popular belief. Obviously in an ideal world that rate would be 0% but I doubt that’s ever going to happen.

Howz about housing him next door to where the parole board families live? :hmmm:

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Originally Posted by snooky

Howz about housing him next door to where the parole board families live? :hmmm:

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Good idea, they could then use him for the school run and picking up the women from nights out.

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Originally Posted by snooky

Howz about housing him next door to where the parole board families live? :hmmm:

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Doesn’t really matter where he lives when his modus operandi is picking up women in a vehicle.

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Originally Posted by Steve-O

Doesn’t really matter where he lives when his modus operandi is picking up women in a vehicle.

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Good point, maybe a driving ban would be relevant.

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Originally Posted by Scouse Hibby

Good point, maybe a driving ban would be relevant.

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Happens here - a condition to (a) not work in any kind of Taxi/private hire job and (b) not to drive any motor vehicle would likely be imposed.

The decision has just been overturned, head of parole board forced to resign.

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Originally Posted by hibsbollah

The decision has just been overturned, head of parole board forced to resign.

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Good, I hope he never gets out.

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Originally Posted by hibsbollah

1) The decision has just been overturned,
2) head of parole board forced to resign.

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Good and good.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

It is a difficult thing to prove in a court of law though.

If you have one person saying they didn't consent to sex and another person saying that they did, unless there's a witness to this alleged crime, it is very difficult to prove that a crime has taken place when the conviction ultimately hinges on whether or not both people consented to sexual intercourse. It is always the job of the prosecution to prove that a crime did take place, rather than the defence's job to prove that it didn't.

It's not like attempted murder or assault or other crimes which involve violence where it's not going to be a question of whether the victim was a willing participant or not.

I can understand why the conviction rates are so low when it comes to rape although I obviously have a massive amount of sympathy with the women who are subjected to such a terrifying ordeal. Experiencing something so horrific must be bad enough in itself, to then have plucked up the courage to report it to the police and then find your attacker getting away with it must be almost as bad as the attack itself.

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Or maybe the accused just isn't guilty as proven and judged?

They will however have had their name splashed all over the papers and social network. It's insane that the accused aren't granted anonymity until proven guilty.

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Originally Posted by hibsbollah

The decision has just been overturned, head of parole board forced to resign.

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It is quite surprising to me from reading the BBC article on all this that the English parole board appears to be miles behind the NZ Parole Board in many ways.