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It’s a fair point but what happens when if we have a second ref and the answer is the same? Or would there be a multiple choice question that gives no overall majority to any option?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bishop Hibee
Or if it’s leave with a deal but not this deal (The Corbyn option?) would Barnier tell the UK to bolt again on a renegotiation?
A second vote is somehow touted as a panacea but it could easily lead to just more nonsense....
The difference with a second vote is that people will have a better idea what they're voting for/against.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
A second vote will need to be a straight choice between WTO and Remain. The brexiteers have not managed to negotiate a deal so at least we will know exactly what we are voting for.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
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Do people know what WTO will be like? There's a huge number who seem to think that it will be fine.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
They have managed to negotiate a deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
We knew we’d have to negotiate a deal to leave, why is it we suddenly think we can shove two fingers up and do what we like. We agreed to the process when we joined didn’t we? If another country was doing this we’d be going nuts.
No there is a deal on the table. One that got (in the end) quite a few MP’s to vote for it. Not sure you can simply discard it and not give people the option to vote for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Which is kind of my point. A second vote is touted as the way out but I’m not even sure people can agree what that second vote should or would be!
No matter what would happen if the result was mega close or didn’t land heavily on remain...
Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
The original vote was leave or stay. Mays deal is the leave option.
In my opinion the vote would have to be between Mays deal or remain.
Have a Brexit run off, deal v no deal. Then take the chosen Brexit option to a final confirmation v Remain. Hold them a week apart like the French do with their presidential election.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
Actually I think parliament should just say the whole thing’s pish, revoke and save months/years of turmoil. Sighs of relief all round.
This.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Government should do what it's supposed to do - lead the country and do what's best for the country.
Would result in riots, not relief.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Followed by years of antagonistic politics, social division, a fuelled far-right and civil unrest.
The people who say there'll be riots also said there'd be riots if we didn't leave by March 29th. So far, no riots.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
All the other stuff is coming anyway, and imo will find much more fertile conditions in a no deal Brexit scenario. (Basically Weimar Germany-lite).
No. People said there would be riots if the public were told that Brexit was cancelled by March 29th. It's be drawn out longer, but those who voted Leave still fully expect us to do so.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Regardless of what happens next, there's going to be riots. Which is why parliament is struggling to piece any real solution together.
Michael Gove to win the Tory leadership contest. He’ll go to Brussels with May’s deal, get it tweaked a bit and it will go through Parliament this time.
Anybody here plannning to riot if that happens? I’m not sure whether to take part or just watch it on the TV. I’m assuming it will be live unless it kicks off at a stupid time.
Just the mere thought of that slimy wee cretin becoming the next PM is enough to make me lose my ****. :greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
I don't think he'll get to the final 2 but even if he did he has not much chance with the membership due to his brass necked backstabbing last time.
Edit: actually I could be talking bollocks ("NO", I here you gasp!). Here's the latest ConHome survey of Tory members:
https://www.conservativehome.com/wp-...t-08.31.02.png
Give is probably the only one capable of getting something through. The rest will go for hard brexit and fail and we will end up with a GE.
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Gove is a repulsive little turd of a man.
I'm never really going to be overly positive about any candidate for the leadership of the Tory party, but the idea of him as PM really turns my stomach.
That's coming whatever happens.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylar
There is a deal on the table but the brexiteers did not vote for it. It’s up to them to now put their WTO brexit up against remain.Quote:
Originally Posted by RyeSloan
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Two weeks ago I'd agree with you, but honestly, given his softening stance and the other candidates I'd probably take him as the "compromise" candidate right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
Plus, the public hate him and he'd lose a GE/fuel support for independence.
Judge rules that Boris Johnson must stand trial for telling porkies in the brexit campaign. - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...1cMb-CE00qQDw8
Where's daffy duck when you need him 😉Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Price of popcorn will increase
Stand by for industrial scale irony about Brave Boris of Eton & Oxford taking on the Establishment Elite. FFS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
It will probably boost his campaign.
I'm wondering if having a criminal case against him will not make his bid invalid?Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Am thinking the same way, live in a pro brexit area with a massive tory parliamentary majority-they'd return a horse as MP if one got the nomination.Quote:
Originally Posted by Diclonius
There's quite a few of the elderly party members who will ultimately select our PM round here, and my take on it is they're talking anyone but Boris who is a long term liability, and Gove seems well thought of, they probably think he's a nice young man.!
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Considering the utterly bonkers political landscape, that wouldn't shock me at all. Cue Tommy Robinson levels of paranoia from Boris Johnson, echoed throughout the British right-wing media.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
The question is really when will the case come to court and the outcome known.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns
Imagine for a moment Mr Johnstone is elected as leader of the Conservative Party, and then a short while later is found guilty, a crime which can carry life imprisonment, and we have to go through the whole thing again?Quote:
A by-election is held if a seat becomes vacant during the lifetime of a Parliament, either when an MP resigns from the House of Commons, or because an MP has died. The law also allows a seat to be declared vacant because of a Member's bankruptcy, mental illness or conviction for a serious criminal offence.
A by-election does not automatically take place if an MP changes political party.
Until a new MP is elected, constituency matters are handled by an MP of the same party in a neighbouring constituency.
If any good can come out of this whole sorry affair, might it be someone as high-profile as Johnson being held to account for the utter bollocks that was spouted meaning that in future politicians need to be a bit more careful about what they promise?
Not a chance will that happen. Tony Blair proved you can walk out of court grinning regardles of your crimes, as long as you're high profile enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns
What was Blair convicted of? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
I think that's the point he was making :agree:Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
What was he charged with ? I don’t remember any pictures of him walking out of court grinning.Quote:
Originally Posted by degenerated
It was a figure of speech. If Boris Johnson becomes the next PM, he will be untouchable. Just like the queen, the laws need not apply.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
Careful, you can't call Johnston a queen, you will feel the wrath of some posters on here. :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
Lots of tories seem to be talking about a managed no deal using something called article 20. Is this complete bollocks or is there something in it?
I think article 20 is to do with EU citizenship. No idea how that would change anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by lord bunberry
If you mean GATT article 24 it's (surprise!) total bollocks.Quote:
Originally Posted by lord bunberry
https://uktradeforum.net/2019/01/26/...a-red-herring/
https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/...-grace-period/
Quote:
By Peter Ungphakorn
What’s going on here? To sum up
The 10-year period was designed for countries setting up free trade from scratch, not weakening integration.
For Brexit, citing it is unnecessary because it isn’t needed
Citing it also adds unnecessary complications
Or to put it another way, if the UK does cite it, it will face three hurdles:
The UK would have to reach agreement with the EU. The UK could not do this unilaterally. So this isn’t exactly “no deal”.
That agreement would have to include a plan and timetable for achieving the final agreement. And it would have to have a sufficient amount of detail, including what the final agreement would look like, because …
… the WTO membership could demand changes, if they weren’t convinced that the plan could be achieved within about 10 years. The UK and EU would have to accept those changes or scrap the agreement. (This doesn’t apply to free trade agreements that are not interim.)
In other words, the 10-year “grace period” has been used to cite WTO rules incorrectly by people who only have a superficial understanding of the rules.
That was it, couldn’t remember the number :greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
To be honest I thought it all sounded to good to be true.
I assumed it was more a literal reference relating to the Iraq EnquiryQuote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
The irony has already started. Boris's argument against the case was that the prosecution is a 'political stunt'... which is totally not what his big red bus was :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Prediction:Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Hackett
Somewhere along the line a magistrate will call him a glib and shameless liar. Johnston's fans will claim a kafflik conspiracy, ignore the finding, and he'll still be their darling.
Farage may benefit by beginning to seem, comparatively, upright and honest.
Thanks for sharing that. It’s ensured me a depressing end to a rubbish day!Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Sorry GL. 😥Quote:
Originally Posted by Glory Lurker
This is an interesting piece which suggests that the reality is starting to hit home ...
https://www.conservativehome.com/the...-election.html
I'm sure there are jobs you can't apply for if there are criminal proceedings against you. This should be one of them, i'd go as far as never let him work again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns
https://twitter.com/rupertmyers/stat...486755840?s=21
I don’t think this guy has a chance of winning the Tory leadership as they are moving to the far right but he should.
Speaks well on the perils of no deal here.
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I posted the same thing on the Tories thread. He has also admitted to smoking opium at a wedding in Iran. Inhaled and everything. :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
He is exactly what they need and if they did go for him and he manages some sort of brexit deal then he would wipe the floor with Corbyn.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
It’s just the sort of thing the Tories always manage to do so maybe he does stand a chance. His popularity will grow over the next few weeks as he gets more air time and Tories start to think about electability as well as brexit. They have a keen sense of self preservation the Tories.
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They used to before they went mad over Europe. Not sure the self preservation instinct is very strong any more.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
True, someone like him would be no good for the SNP anyway. Far better if Boris is in charge.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
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Corbyn interviewed today in Dublin. Still wants to negotiate his fantasy a la carte Brexit and is refusing to say if Remain would be on the ballot for a confirmatory ref. :rolleyes:
Oh my god get him to ****, he's useless.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
After May, the Tories will only accept a Brexiteer who is willing to go no deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
This is what we're up against :brickwall:
Len McCluskey Warns Corbyn: Copying Lib Dems On Brexit Would Be ‘Electoral Suicide’
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b0e8085e37bbf7
He's right. It's too late for Labour now. They have lost the remain vote to the Lib Dems for the foreseeable future. However, they have no chance of gaining the leave vote either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
As a "tartan tory" I must say, i'm rather delighted with these turn of events. :cb
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...6a81d8e5a2.jpg
A Tory who understands.
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No doubt you are.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fife-Hibee
'Mon the Tories.
:greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by Hibbyradge
Result from the Peterborough by-election:
Lab 30.9% (-17.2)
Brex 28.9% (n/a)
Con 21.4% (-25.5)
Lib 12.3% (+8.9)
Grn 3.1% (+1.3)
Pretty much confirms what recent polling has shown. Tories absolutely ****ed by Farage, Labour losing a good chunk from both Leave and Remain sides but more from Remain.
If nothing much changed between now and a GE, FPTP would probably deliver a Lab majority but it's extremely volatile. The Libs were absolute no-hopers here, where they are much closer to Lab they may get a much bigger boost.
From Daily Mirror pol ed Pippa Crerar:
Quote:
BREAKING: Labour has tabled a cross-party motion to prevent a No Deal Brexit. Would hand control of Parliamentary agenda to MPs on Tuesday 25th June. Gives them mechanism to stop UK crashing out.
Couldn't they have just supported the Cherry amendment?Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
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Motion defeated by 11 votes. ****.Quote:
Originally Posted by Callum_62
Absolutely topper. I love Westminster
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Ach, there were more laughs in the Bill Murray/Andie MacDowell version.Quote:
Originally Posted by Callum_62
That's a sore one for Labour. Corbyn's soor puss was priceless when the result was read out. 'Resentment rising off him like steam' as the braying Tories celebrated in front of him :hilariousQuote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Aye, a no deal Brexit is hilarious. It’s far more important that Tory MPs protect their careers.Quote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
It's a sore one for everybody that doesn't want a recession, hundreds of thousands of job losses and quite probably people actually dying.Quote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
What a wheeze, eh? :rolleyes:
Don't really know why anyone would find our predicament we are in as hilarious
The govts own analysis paints a very bleak picture - what's to celebrate by keeping that as a possible option?
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Without wanting to defend the Tories, or to pretend that a no-deal Brexit would be anything other than catastrophic.........
Do you not undermine your own bargaining position by taking "no deal" off the table?
If you go in only being prepared to have "a deal" then you get whichever deal is on offer, without having the ability to tell the other side to F off, this isn't remotely in our interests.
The delusion of course is that there is a better deal to be had, just as long as we had the right people doing the bargaining. There isn't, the EU have offered as much as they should be reasonably expected to without undermining their own existence.
I remain absolutely in favour of remaining - no deal we get will beat what we have. I am also of the opinion though that "no deal" is better than a "crap deal" which seems to be the only type of deal that is on offer.
It's a shame that so many people in the UK would prefer a crap deal to a good one. It actually is that simple.
Not really. If you went to sell your car and didn't like the deal, you'd keep it and drive it home. You wouldn't crash it into the nearest tree and then walk.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
A crap deal is the best on offer due to our own govts red linesQuote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
A Govt that knows the terrible economic impact on its people should not persue that route at all
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8 Lab rebs + 13 abstentions
10 Tory rebs
They think they'll get another chance later. They better be right. :grr:
I wasn't really commenting on the issue at stake, it was more a point about the all round inability of Corbyn to land any kind of telling blow on the most fractured Tory party and shambolic government of recent times. He'd have been quietly confident of pushing that motion through today but has been undone by his own MPs.Quote:
Originally Posted by marinello59
I was thinking more about walking into a shop to buy a bag of crisps. If you take the option of walking out of the shop without the crisps off the table then are you not obliged to give the shop owner whatever they want for the crisps?Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
In your case, is keeping the car and driving it home not the "no deal" equivalent?
No, reverting to the status quo is remain.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
25 Labour mps abstained or voted against the whip last night.
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Presumably most represent leave voting constituencies and, rightly in my view, feel that they were elected to represent the views of those who put them in parliament rather than follow the ever shifting stance that their party takes on Brexit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
I think they are elected to represent their constituents' interests, rather than their views. That's how a Tory MP can represent a Labour voter, and vice versa.Quote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
In that instance you'd presumably just find another buyer, which is not an option with Brexit. The EU are the only 'buyer' on the market and a very reluctant one at that, hence the reason you need to maintain a threat to walk away from the deal in the hope it will persuade them to improve their offer. Of course the deal is further complicated by the fact that the 'seller' is not the sole owner of the car. They're more like the nominated driver of a vehicle which has been utilised by a large number of passengers, the majority of whom have voted to sell it. However, a combination of squabbling over the price by those who wish to sell it and a backdrop of moaning from those who wanted to keep the vehicle has led to the nominated driver being replaced, probably by one who will have fewer qualms about driving it into a tree to end the impasse.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
I'm not sure that applies here. Whether or not it proves to be in a constituency's best 'interests' to leave the EU a local MP is not, as far as I'm aware, elected because he or she is perceived to 'know better' than those who elected them. When a clear majority of your constituents vote to leave it's surely beholden on a democratically elected MP to respect any further expression of democracy within his or her constituency. To do otherwise would smack of an arrogance that will ultimately see that MP voted out of office.Quote:
Originally Posted by lapsedhibee
This seems to be the biggest problem with referendums ie that too many MPs or MSPs think they know better than the electorate and because, unlike general elections which come round every few years, they can't handle the fact there's not another chance to have things their way. Hence why we now live in a seemingly endless cycle of attempts to block Brexit and to force another Scottish independence referendum.
What do you mean, further expression of democracy?Quote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
Since the EU referendum we have since voted in a parliament that seems reluctant to carry it through. As that is a more recent democratic vote surely that is more important?Quote:
Originally Posted by lapsedhibee
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Wish the Scottish Tories were this moral when it comes to votes in Parliament.Quote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
J
Actually that's precisely how representative democracy is supposed to work.Quote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
Edmund Burke - "Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion."
MPs should have the necessary intellect, access to all the relevant evidence and the time that you and I might not necessarily have to come to a judgement. You don't like his/her judgements then you have the chance to vote them out next election.
In the case of Brexit, it ought to be, by now, overwhelmingly obvious to MPs that it's a stupid idea that should be dropped quicker than Boris' latest mistress. Unfortunately not enough of them have the metaphorical balls to do it.
An MP is democratically elected by virtue of attracting more votes than any other candidate in his or her constituency at a General Election. This is, by and large, accepted and respected by all concerned. We don't, for example, see a losing candidate and his or her supporters stage a campaign to reverse the result simply because they don't like it. On that basis, it surely follows that when we see another democratic vote within that constituency (ie Brexit) that the sitting MP should accept and respect the majority opinion. That doesn't mean they shouldn't also take on board the views of those who voted against Brexit but to actively go against the majority decision delivered by those he represents in parliament would seem to be a dereliction of his or her responsibilities to them.Quote:
Originally Posted by lapsedhibee
Is that the definitive standard to which all MPs must adhere or simply Burke's opinion?Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
That analogy doesn’t work.Quote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
J
By the same token, that would give licence to any MP in a remain seat to do whatever they liked to oppose Brexit?Quote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
I agree with you to the extent that if parliament is going to bottle its responsibility to decide things and hold a referendum instead, then parliament should be bound by the result.
However, the problem with Brexit (from start to finish) though is that there are many different forms of Brexit and the soft end (Norway style) is arguably closer to remain than the hard end of no deal. What was promised by the Brexiters, complete sovereign control with no economic downside, ie. having cake and eating it, has (surprise!) proved impossible to implement. It's ridiculous to claim a mandate for no deal from a vote including people who voted for Norway.
I think they need to either pick a specific version of Brexit and put that to a ref2 vs remain or just cancel it altogether.
The problem with ref2 is that they will pick no deal and then the same set of lying *****bags that won ref1 will update their lies to show that they can still have their cake and eat it. The Tory leadership candidates already have this process well underway. The EU are about to back down, they'll get a "managed" no deal, GATT art 24 will come to the rescue in a way that every trade commentator has already dismissed as TOTAL AND UTTER ****ING NONSENSE, magical technology that nobody is developing will fix the Irish border, they can just go and negotiate directly with Germany/Ireland/France/the Tooth Fairy and Barnier's team will be cut out of the loop. Blah, blah and more ****ing blah. :rolleyes:
Why not? Here's Labour's Lisa Nandy, a staunch remainer but MP for a staunchly pro-Brexit constituency on what she sees as her responsibility to her constituents:Quote:
Originally Posted by Bristolhibby
"I may take a different view to many of my constituents on Brexit, but I like and respect them enough to know that wanting to leave the EU is not the same as being stupid or racist, as they have too often been labelled. They listened to the economic arguments I, and others, put forward in 2016 and took a judgment to vote leave. I am yet to meet more than a handful of people who have changed their minds.
"Every time I talk about this I am told I should be resolutely making the argument for remain. But I and others did exactly that in 2016, spending months in the most sceptical towns of the North West, North East and Midlands making the case for the many and varied benefits of EU membership. We weren’t very much helped by a national campaign which championed the economic benefits of remaining. After decades of relative decline, and much EU structural fund investment focused on rebuilding our great cities, it just didn’t cut it among many people in towns who had seen jobs disappear and young people leave, and it still doesn’t.
"Almost universally on the doorstep questions about a second referendum are largely greeted with bewilderment. I am reminded frequently that we’ve had one already and it’s time for Parliament to get on with it."
Or in other words, I know Brexit's crap but I want to keep my job. It's not exactly high principle.Quote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
Fully anticipate no-deal now, with Johnson being effectively sworn in after two rounds of votes. This is mental, and not the good kind of "we've just won the Scottish cup" bewildered mental.
Yep we mock the yanks for electing Trump now a few thousand Tory party members are about to force our own version on us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jones28
To be fair, everyone in this country knows this is how PM’s are picked so it’s not really the Tory members fault. It’s our fault for voting in the Tories or voting no in 2014 or whatever democratic decision you may think led us here. Either way, its democracy in action.Quote:
Originally Posted by BroxburnHibee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Not strictly true.
Prime minister is normally voted because of being leader of a party and they become prime minister through a general election.
We are about to have our second prime minister through party members only
Strictly speaking we don’t vote for a PM or even a Government in a general election. We vote for a local representative.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns
We’ve had lots more than two PM’s this way.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns
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May, Brown and Major are 3 off the top of my head in recent times. The next one will be the fourth and I am sure as you say plenty more.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Nicola Sturgeon became FM when Salmond stood down.
Sturgeon was deputy First Minister so the move was very much expected.Quote:
Originally Posted by James310