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Omicron has gone from 2% of cases in Scotland on the 5th to 13% of cases yesterday. With 5000 cases reported today that is going to be about 700 cases a day from virtually nothing a couple of weeks ago. Fingers crossed it proves to be mild like in S Africa. We'll see in hospital figures in 2 to 3 weeks. If it is not mild then we may be in for a hell of a few weeks
No, because again, I don't think anyone who has come into contact with a positive COVID case should be made to isolate. Given that COVID (thanks to vaccines and vaccines alone) now has a similar IFR to flu, we should treat it exactly as such, and advise people to stay at home if they feel ill, but absolutely not mandate such a thingQuote:
Originally Posted by J.S
Again, it is crucial to point out that I did not have this opinion this time last year, and I was never an advocate for 'letting it rip', but since we have now vaccinated the most vulnerable in society and these vaccines ensure the overwhelmingly majority of that cohort are completely safe, that should be it in terms of the extent of the state's response to COVID now
So after Nippy’s briefing I took from it, parties don't need to cancel, just advising that Works parties don’t go ahead. She’s covered incase it gets worse and she can say "I told you so" Make an absolute decision either way…more cancellations today after that pathetic briefing.
Which only really delays the spike anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7
I get why that makes sense to avoid it in winter but it still happens regardless. Annoying for someone who, being totally random, has an already delayed twice wedding planned for April.....
As I say hope you've got your Christmas shopping in and send any deliveries early
Ryan
@ThatRyanChap
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10m
1 in 80 Scotland have it. 2 doublings take it to 1 in 20, then added in say 5 contacts that’s 1.37m people or 25% of population at home. It’s a defecto lockdown.
Have they thought this thru
I highly doubt many will comply for much longerQuote:
Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7
There's certainly a familiar pattern emerging here. A kind of drip feed of gradually increasing caution/restrictions followed, I suspect, by a 'we've done all we can to avoid this but I'm afraid Christmas is cancelled again' announcement.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir David Gray
All thoroughly dispiriting, especially speaking as somebody who is double vaccinated and boosted - yet I'm left feeling as though it doesn't seem to count for very much.
I'm on train into Edinburgh for planned night out. Train is as busy as I've seen it since the pandemic began.
There will be a fair few who have cancelled events tonight, but still thousands out in Edinburgh who haven't.
If this is really as bad as Nicola outlined today (tone was March 2020 levels of fear), then the genie is well and truly out the bottle and nothing other than a lockdown will stop the worst case scenario she painted.
Yep and you'd probably be grand from Omicron. But someone unvaxxed has more chance of having problems and will have the same restrictions as you at Christmas, probably more unlikely to follow them tooQuote:
Originally Posted by He's here!
Updating this in full since the vaccination data wasn't covered during the briefing.
Daily Scottish update:
* 5,018 new cases since yesterday - 9.3% positivity rate
Decrease of 5 in the confirmed cases in hospital since yesterday - 573
Increase of 1 in the confirmed cases in intensive care since yesterday - 40
4,359,959 people have now received their first dose of the vaccine - 1,234 people since yesterday
3,969,494 people have now received their second dose of the vaccine - 2,017 people since yesterday
2,040,070 people have now received a booster vaccination - 39,155 people since yesterday
19 deaths registered since yesterday
* There has been a higher number of tests received in the last 24 hours as labs begin to address the turnaround time between specimens being taken and results being received and reported.
Sneaky wee Nicola never gave this asterisk during the briefing today did she?!?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir David Gray
I’m sure but there’s a good chunk of non vaccinated that just haven’t bothered rather than antivax.Quote:
Originally Posted by LaMotta
57,000 pcr tests 😲 more than 1% of the population tested yesterday. Although they won't all be from yesterday but still, hugeQuote:
Originally Posted by Sir David Gray
Can’t be bothered trawling back for yesterdays or indeed further but is the trend down or up?Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Marvin
It's definately getting worse there's no 2 ways about it as she advisedQuote:
Originally Posted by Berwickhibby
I'm not sure what was pathetic about it but given your opening line I'm gathering who delivered it is part of the issue
Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk
Yes fair point.Quote:
Originally Posted by greenlex
I really don't know what the next step will be.
The tone of the press conference was pretty ominous and indicated further restrictions/closures etc.
How does that happen without further funding from the UK government though?
I cannot see Johnson and his cronies agreeing to implement closures on entertainment/hospitality/football etc, so we either fund it ourselves, or carry on as we are.
No but did stress how big an increase it was for the average.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Marvin
What was pathetic was the biscuit arsed message of we are not stopping works parties, But!! we want you to defer them. Either make a decision to stop functions or let them run as planned. What should be my busiest time of the year is now going to be like last year, a financial disaster …. Oh if Bozo 🤡 had delivered the message my opinion would be same.Quote:
Originally Posted by Callum_62
That's exactly where I am. There have been Tory backbenchers (and many party members) that have been saying from Day 1 that NO lockdown was necessary (at least not for the general 'healthy' population) and given his precarious position I can't see him acting unless it gets to the stage where he has no choice.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chorley Hibee
The reason the Scottish Government is in a flap at present is as follows.
Omicron currently accounts for 13% of infections and is doubling every 2-3 days. Let's take 4000 as a reasonable current daily case number instead of the artificially high 5000 that we had today. Omicron is 13% so about 500 infections. in 10 days it could account for 500-1000-2000-4000 infections plus all the delta which should decline somewhat as it is outcompeted. Of course it won't keep doubling but it will produce a spike like we have not seen before. And with unknown consequences, hopefully the vast majority will be mild as in SA, but we just don't know.
Scot gov estimates it will be 100% of cases in just over 1 week, bye bye delta
Attachment 25356
They estimate around 5000 cases a day by the 20th
Attachment 25357
If it keeps doubling every 2.5 days everyone in Scotland will have had it by the first week in January. Obviously doubling will slow but still. This will be over quick perhaps that's why it's dropping in South Africa quick fly round then gone. Hopefully no real icu spike like SA also. If your vulnerable I'd keep my head down for a few weeks
I'm confused the BBC says household contacts must isolate for 10 days if someone tests positive but non household contacts can leave isolation with a neg pcr. If this is true then its changed as it was all contacts isolated for 10 days regardless of test result. It means workplaces don't automatically isolate?
Was discussing this today and what you describe is what I thought but the advice is different.Quote:
Originally Posted by J.S
Its such a mess of illogical advice and counter-advice its not surprising the PM can’t follow it!
Yeah just changed, still will isolate until pcr. Think they have realised just how huge a % of population will be isolating soonQuote:
Originally Posted by J.S
Quote:
Originally Posted by ABZHFC
I don't disagree with you in parts but your arguing your point with people who are stating the facts and rules . I get that you disagree with them but saying things like so just nhs parties cancelled? Is really shooting the messenger
We don't really know how this variant is going to affect those most at risk and vulnerable even though they have been vaxed and boosted . I don't know where you get your info that they are safe. It makes the vaccine less effective so add to that immunocompromised issues then what cover do they really have? We are being told they don't know yet and need more time .
So my sons partner who had close contact at a works night out on sat and has had 2 neg pcrs but was told to isolate til tues can now work the weekend?Quote:
Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7
I assume so yes. not sure if retrofitted backwards but is certainly from todayQuote:
Originally Posted by J.S
Thank you. That's takes a bit of pressure off everyone.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7
I wonder if there is actually a bit of good news in all this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7
Early indications from SA seem to suggest this spikes quickly then starts to flatten (new daily cases this week 16K, 16K, 11K, 6K, 13K, 19K and 22K), obviously there are blips in there and the data is incomplete but it's worth considering that previous to that we saw cases double from 2K to 4K to 8K in only 3 days then another doubling to 16K in another 2 days). Added to that there seems a suggestion it is either a) milder or b) vaccines and past immunity are holding up and preventing severe disease. The next few days is crucial as that is when we would start to expect the 1st Omicron patients to appear in hospitals, with a rate lagging but mirroring the cases (if there is significant vaccine and immunity escape), that's obviously a process that takes another couple of weeks to become clear but when it does we can probably start to draw firmer conclusions. Add to that a shorter incubation period, whilst not ideal, might actually be of benefit in the sense people are 'only' walking about for a couple of days whilst infectious but asymptomatic rather than potentially 4+ days currently.
I suppose an ideal scenario might be a lot of people getting ill quickly but just ill enough to have to stay at home, rest and take a few paracetamol whilst not being ill enough to require any more than reassurance and advice. Also they get ill quickly enough that they don't spend 4 or 5 days spreading it to everyone else in their workplace before they go to bed.