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I was sceptical last week at the news of a big surge in SNP membership (10,000) after Nicola had given evidence for the Salmond enquiry committee .. but I’ve just been informed that the membership at my local branch has increased by nearly 10% this month, so seems it is probably a legitimate claim.
I'm wondering if he's said it to wind up Michael Stewart :greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Nah, Levein is a unionist through and through. In an interview in one of the broadsheets, around the time he was Scotland manager, they asked him about his preference for a national anthem and he suggested it should be god save the Queen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Grieves
Blimey, or was that just one of his dry quips?Quote:
Originally Posted by degenerated
It didn't read that wayQuote:
Originally Posted by Kato
Yeah, the question was just one my dry quips.Quote:
Originally Posted by degenerated
😂Quote:
Originally Posted by Kato
:wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyboy
To give Levein due it must be hard to give up the opportunity to profit from the only thing (apart from Hearts) that unites the Morningside living, land rover driving, cardigan wearing, rugby loving, Alister Darling and Ruth Davidson worshipping unionists with the Section N, would be up to their knees at Ibrox if they could afford the bus ticket, Tommy Robinson obsessed alt right nazis that combined make up the Hearts support.
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Another dip for the SNP. They are going to need an impressive campaign or another chance will be lost and we’ll spend another 5 years talking about an indyref.
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I don't really trust any poll but looking at the above what kind of voter flips from pro Indy to anti Indy just like that? It's one hell of a view change.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...91b82b7aad.jpg
Tells you all you need to know about unionists. ‘Easily hold her own at Westminster’? How inferior they think we should all feel that we should view Westminster as the big boys parliament.
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I know right?Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveF
Flipping from SNP to Tory is one hell of a flip. Talk about being swayed.
The maddening thing it’s these floaters that hold iIndependence in their hand.
J
That's been an issue with Labour since day 1 of the Parliament. They sent their Premier League people to London, and left us with First Division players. The SNP kept most of their first team up here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
SNP -3 Tory +3 Lab Lib 0Quote:
Originally Posted by Bristolhibby
Is margin of error stuff but also could be explained by movement SNP->Lab/Lib combined with Lab/Lib->Tory. Or just SNP reluctance to vote combined with Lab/Lib->Tory. The quoted figures are with the DKs removed. The DKs may have increased substantially, you'd have to check the tables.
I'm struggling to think of another country that has amongst it's ranks journalists like Daisley that love to put down and trash their own country in order to suck up to another.
It's sad as **** and lacking any hint of self respect, made worse that they immediately start to greet about "abuse" when taken to task on their total pish.
Another poll
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/st...829337602?s=19
Scottish parliament voting intention(s):
Constituency:
SNP: 52% (-4)
CON: 22% (+3)
LAB: 17% (+2)
LDEM: 6% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)
List:
SNP: 45% (-2)
CON: 21% (+1)
LAB: 16% (+3)
LDEM: 5% (-1)
GRN: 6% (-1)
via @YouGov, 04 - 08 Mar
Chgs. w/ 10 Nov 2020
If Jackie Baillie could hold her own at Westminster she'd be at Westminster.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Although there is a clear decline in the SNP support from the previous opinion poll, those figures are still very good for the SNP and would almost certainly give them a clear majority. At the last Holyrood election the SNP polled 46.5% in the constituency and 41.7% in the regional vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Grieves
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...d8eca490ee.jpg
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3 MSPs for the Greens would be piss poor beyond imagination for them, I was quite shocked by the low polling figures for them in that specific poll.
There will be voters like me who now see Independence as the only show in town. Manifesto and politics wise I mostly align with The Greens. I have mostly voted for them in Scottish elections but I will only vote SNP now as Independence is everything and we may only get one further shot. The SNP are the conduit for that Independence and branch pipes will lower pressureQuote:
Originally Posted by CloudSquall
YouGov had 3% voting for the Scottish Socialist Party in the region list, despite the SSP not actually fielding any candidates afaik. Likely skewed regional votes a bitQuote:
Originally Posted by CloudSquall
I think the seat projections are very hard to do even when you have all the polling data.
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https://twitter.com/ballotboxscot/st...060205573?s=21
Only a local council by-election
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Copied this from the link above.
Conservatives still ahead of Labour, so the change in leadership hasn't (yet) made much difference in regards to the May Elections.
There is definitely a drop in the SNP vote, though.
Attachment 24428
Tories unseat The Good Guys at Leaderdale and Melrose though. Can't find the vote splits though, and hoping it's one of those technical gains instead of an actual one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Radium
SNP vote is substantially up, but since everyone went up I'm assuming that there was a popular Independent candidate last time. Calling these type of by-elections a "gain" is stretching things to its limits, but of course that doesn't stop an avalanche of ********ry on twitter etc. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Glory Lurker
Leaderdale and Melrose (Borders) By-Election, 1st Prefs:
Con - 1380 (39.9%, +8.0)
SNP - 1042 (30.2%, +12.4)
LD - 538 (15.6%, +6.2)
D (Ind) - 159 (4.6%, +4.6)
Grn - 152 (4.4%, +4.4)
Lab - 115 (3.3%, +3.3)
W (Ind) - 69 (2%, +2)
Con elected stage 7.
Livingston South By-Election 11/03/2021, First Preferences:
SNP - 2465 (43.9%, +3.0)
Labour - 1382 (24.6%, -10.9)
Conservative - 989 (17.6%, -1.8)
Ind - 332 (5.9%, +5.9)
Green - 234 (4.2%, +1.7)
Lib Dem - 185 (3.3%, +1.5)
UKIP - 29 (0.5%, +0.5)
SNP elected stage 7.
UKIP????? :confused:
Now a nostalgia party? (Not that it ever wasn't.)Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...mpression=true
Change in approach?
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Expect to hear reckless much more often.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Interesting to see how many times it refers to a required SNP majority when a Scottish journalist should know that an SNP/Green majority is a pro independency majority.
Jeez, Roger Whittaker's not aged well.Quote:
Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875
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Johnson admitting that he won’t be able to stop an indyref if the SNP/Greens get a majority.
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a repugnant Tory actually used these words "Stench of Sleaze and Scandal" :rolleyes:
https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.n...71&oe=60750DF7
still, that's the 2nd piece i've saw from a tory in recent weeks about the list votes, i'm again back to thinking SNP 1 & 2 would see very few list seats picked up, just four the last time, i don't think i've read so much confusion on fb indy groups surrounding those list votes, SNP 1 & 2/SNP 1 Greens 2 :hmmm:
Can you even have a 'nailed-on near-certainty'? Shirley being nailed-on means certain, not partly certain? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875
I’m usually SNP 1&2 but think I’ll go SNP 1 and Greens 2. In Lothian, with the way the polls are, there is no chance of an SNP win on the list votes. Greens is best chance of increasing pro Indy vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875
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I'm Edinburgh West and that's my thoughts too (even if I get millions of lib dem leaflets!) ... unless anyone clever can give better guidance!Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
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So why not Greens 1 and 2?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
I agree .. there needs to be better communication regarding the List vote and potential constituency results within each region. In some regions SNP2 could allow more unionist MSPs than Greens 2.Quote:
Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875
I think (if I'm not wrong) the SNP are really only benefiting from the list vote in the South of Scotland, elsewhere they pick up so many (if not all) FPTP seats that SNP list votes are being pissed away if maximising pro indy MSPs is the goal.
However I'm guessing that even with a healthy SNP / Green majority Ruth and co would be out with plan F "SNP list vote is down, clearly no appetite for indy ref 2"...
Because SNP can still win the constituency?Quote:
Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...da3bf529e0.jpg
Won’t be easy though.
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I meant generally:)Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Quote:
Originally Posted by StevieC
nearly 900k list votes brought us a grand total of 4..yes FOUR SNP MSP's the last time, i just don't understand why the SNP are not doing what the tories are now doing, tories slagging off the Greens last week and yet they themselves are desperate to fall into bed with Labour..which apparently sarwar is perfectly prepared to do, i for one am perfectly happy to have Greens pushing their policies against the SNP to get something back for their voting with the SNP in government. i also understand that it's only certain Scottish constituencies that would benefit from more list votes going to the Greens, WHY won't the SNP just play the system, the system that was specifically designed in the first place by Blair/dewar to stop the SNP getting full control, i think we will need those Greens list votes this time.
besides, this system stinks when we have persistent losers like Murdo freakin Fraser in our parliament.
How many constituency seats are they standing a candidate in?Quote:
Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod
I’m pretty sure that they lost a lot of support last time for standing a candidate in an SNP marginal. I think they will avoid that again.Quote:
Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod
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That's just stupid. I am solid SNP but might lend my vote to the Greens on the Highlands list. I will, however, be totally pissed off if they split the pro independence vote in any constituency and let a Unionist come through. IMO them standing a candidate in Edinburgh Central in 2016 let Ruth Davidson take the seat.Quote:
Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod
I deleted my post because what I thought I'd read was not the case.Quote:
Originally Posted by allmodcons
If the SNP and Greens played the system properly they could have a serious pro Independence majority.
They are planning to run with the same candidate again in that constituency so it may happen again.Quote:
Originally Posted by allmodcons
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Angus Robertson contesting that seat this time around
That's just ****ing stupid. If they want people like me to lend them a vote on the list they need to be sensible in their approach to constituency seats like Edinburgh CentralQuote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
And not up against Davidson either. Name recognition very important and Davidson’s profile helped her to a very narrow win.Quote:
Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875
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https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...ng/?ref=twtrec
Johnson drops his plan to refuse a referendum.
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Is there likely to be a tool which can help people identify where to place their pro indy vote as per your constituency?
I know there is one in the opposite direction
There should be, but it won’t come from the SNP. They are sticking with SNP1&2 regardless. Seems they’ve no interest in an pro-Independence majority, it has to be an SNP majority or it’s a failure.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex Trager
And to an extent, I can see where they are coming from as Westminster and MSM will question a referendum if there isn’t an SNP majority, regardless of Greens List seats.
The SNP can’t advise people to vote for anyone else. You get kicked out of political parties for saying you intend to vote for someone else.Quote:
Originally Posted by StevieC
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Unless you are Scottish Labour or Conservative. 🤔Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
That’s kinda what I was alluding to, that SNP won’t entertain anything other than SNP 1&2. However, there are lots of pro-Indepence and YES groups that are asking the serious question about the possibility of a strong pro-Independence majority with some tactical SNP 1 Greens 2 voting. Whilst not openly supporting the idea, I might have thought that the SNP might at least debate the concept rather than quickly just shut it down.
The catchphrase I’ve been seeing from SNP stalwarts is that anything other than SNP1&2 will allow unionist parties to pick up additional seats, which is certainly not the case.
The big elephant in the room is the two new Independence parties that have now officially registered themselves for the upcoming election. 🙄
The two new Indy parties won’t get a single seat but might stop the greens from getting one or two. Unless they can get Salmond on board then they will sink without a trace. They are nobodies, with no major finance and no way of generating support outside of anti-snp Twitter. 52 days out from the election and I reckon about 99% of the population couldn’t tell you who they are or even what they are called.Quote:
Originally Posted by StevieC
Those interested in a tactical list vote for independence really only have the greens. Especially in Lothians.
In the Highlands and borders though, both votes SNP probably best.
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Would it be possible for an SNP outright majority if a significant number of people have the Greens there second vote? Or would it depend on which constituency you were in? Must admit to not being able to wrap my head around the list vote.
A pro-Indy majority would be great but as others have said; WM and MSM media would paint it as a failure for the SNP when really the Scottish parliament isn’t designed for outright majorities.
Andy wightman is standing in highland as an independent. SNP 1 Andy 2.😉Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Why not the other way around?Quote:
Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns
A pro Indy majority is a pro Indy majority. WM can paint it how it likes but it doesn’t change what Scotland voted for. The parliament are still able to pass legislation for a 2nd referendum.Quote:
Originally Posted by 18Craig75
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Wightman will only be standing as a list candidate.Quote:
Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod
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Yes, you and I know that (as well as I’m sure everyone on this thread) but general public, undecideds, might not. WM are using dirty tactics (as they always have done tbf) so I just think an outright SNP majority standing on a manifesto that explicitly says “vote for us for Indyref2” will have more gravitas than SNP & Green majority.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Ah. I didn't realise that.:aok:Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
I don't think you will find an official example of Lab or Tory saying vote for anyone other than themselves. Usually couched in the language of "everybody vote for us here, we're the only ones who can stop the SNP".Quote:
Originally Posted by StevieC
As Ozy says, unless they can get Salmond, the 2 list parties will be competing for 1% if they're lucky. Ditto for Galloway and his motley crew.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
I've no idea of the context, but isn't that what Kezia Dugdale was accused of doing?
You could argue she implied it with nod and a wink but she didn't actually say it:Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_M
https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/...ur-candidates/
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
That's true.
:aok:
https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,o...main-in-the-uk
Poll commissioned by Scotland in Union so make of it what you will.
They asked a different question? [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] It’s not a real poll on independence.Quote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
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What's that smell ...?Quote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...887efc7eec.jpg
That "magazine" is quite misleading, naming it Holyrood makes it seem like it's some internal or official insider magazine, everything I've seen on it seems to be anti SNP and IndependenceQuote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
I might start a magazine called Westminster and trash the Tories every day and call for independence
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-poli...mpression=true
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Based on the 2016 vote, the results in Lothian were:-Quote:
Originally Posted by 18Craig75
Con 4 seats total
Lab 3 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 2 seats total
So for indi 8 seats, remain 8 seats
If all snp voters gave their second vote to the greens the results would have been:-
Con 2 seats total
Lab 2 seats total
Lib Dem 1 seat total
Snp 6 seats total
Greens 5 seats total
So for indi 11 seats, remain 5 seats
Hope this helps.
If anyone from other areas want info let me know
:aok:Quote:
Originally Posted by Stick
"insiders" in Iceland are saying Iceland will recognise a Yes majority and accept independent Scotland as a new state
EFTA nations, again not officially, see no barrier to Scotland joining within months of a Yes vote
so i'm hearing :)
Okayyyy... since this is something that will probably be a topic for debate soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875
EFTA... what's good about it? What's not good?
What does the EU have that's better? And worse?
Opinions from all sides of the house welcome. 😃
I would think an Indy Scotland would want to join EFTA to start with so that we could draw breath while we look at our options for joining the EU.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod
for me it's more about realising there's at least four European countries that won't have a problem making trade deals with an independent Scotland, the only European country in the EU that i'm maybe unnecessarily less than optimistic about is Spain, for obvious reasons, so i don't see why other EU countries would have a problem admitting Scotland and would probably tell Spain to stfu ;) there's many articles from European news outlets, Germany,Holland, and even America stating an independent Scotland would be a pretty rich country, unfortunately there's only a few publications in the UK that will point this out to people in Scotland, but anyway, i'l wait for the more knowledgeable explaining all the good/bads etc, surely there's no downsides to either the EFTA or EU and it would be fantastic being part of something with other countries that aren't trying to dilute basic human rights :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by G B Young
Difficult to form an opinion...
"However, this survey used different wording from the others, asking whether people would vote to remain in the UK or leave rather than vote yes or no to independence.
...
Survation conducted the poll for pro-UK Scotland in Union between 9 and 12 March."
Is the argument against this poll based on Scottish people being to stupid to understand the question?
:dunno:
They're absolutely terrified of losing the nation that they allegedly subsidise.
Does EFTA require closed borders with non-members?Quote:
Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875
I'm holding my nose and voting SNP and was going to give them my second vote. I was discussing this very issue the other day and I came to the conclusion that the SNP are more interested in power in a devolved Parliament than they are in Independence. The Greens will get my second vote now and frankly there should be a tactical alliance to make sure Indi parties destroy the Unionist Parties.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stick
More like answering carelessly. If you are used to identifying as Remain it is surprisingly easy to not realise you are actually Leave on this new question. If this question becomes the norm then people will eventually get used to it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_M
Its more Lidl and Aldi we'll need in an independent Scotland.Quote:
Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875
They have free movement with the EU and are in the single market. Not in the customs union though. Not sure how it would affect our border with England but I’ve given up hope there won’t be some sort of border infrastructure at least in the short term while England comes to its senses.Quote:
Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod
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Depends what you mean by closed. The EFTA countries are all in Schengen so people can cross borders freely between them and the EU but they are not in the EU’s customs union so goods are stopped and checked.Quote:
Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod
https://i.imgur.com/aMWLKfX.png
UK needs moved, obvs. :rolleyes:
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...f980b41669.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
The sensible thing would be for us to have a common travel area where people can move freely but there is a customs border for goods.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack
:greengrin
well, at least they two stores aren't afraid to sell produce with a Saltire on the packaging, although i have noticed the butchers apron creeping up a tad in Aldi, pleasantly surprised whilst in one of my rare visits to Lidl yesterday to see just a bag of carrots with the Saltire...Tesco and Morrisons are getting like the last night of the proms, i'm in Tesco twice a week but i'l be starting to cut down on the amount i spend, more so now i've been informed Tesco are Donors to the nasty party
even morrisons now have "British fish" on it's fresh fish counter, ach probably British fish caught in Scottish waters going by the Haddock accents :)
https://mobile.twitter.com/HumzaYous...82713101758467
Some civic nationalism from Galloway...
"You're not more Scottish than me. You're not a Celt like me".
Can you imagine the media reaction if an SNP candidate was directing this at Sarwar?
Ronald Villiers 😂Quote:
Originally Posted by CloudSquall
Ok ta.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
So would there need to be a closed border between IS and rUK? I'm guessing yes.
With us in EFTA? No, since EFTA countries aren’t bound into EU trade policy it’s theoretically possible for us to have a deal with rUK that allowed an open border. Probably vanishingly unlikely but theoretically possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod
An open border would be in both countries' interests though, wouldn't it?Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Yes. What’s that got to do with it? :greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod
I’m not sure what happens if there’s an EFTA-UK agreement in the meantime. Would iScotland be obliged to participate if it joined EFTA? The Swiss are in EFTA but not the EEA, they have their own bilateral arrangement with the EU, so perhaps it’s optional?