Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Hibby Bairn

That is a good read. I agree with quite a lot of it.

I think the problem however is a health capacity issue. Unlike flu this seems to cause very distressing breathing difficulties leading to urgent hospitalisation. And unless under control then we’d have thousands dying in the streets.

Having said that I have absolutely no medical knowledge whatsoever!

It would be interesting to see a mock up of what daily reporting of flu would look like.

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I can't provide a mock up graph of flu rates but the numbers for 19/20 for the US (estimates by the CDC) so far are:

Between 38 and 54 million illnesses
Between 17 and 25 million medical visits
390-710K hospitalisations
23-59K deaths.

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

I can't provide a mock up graph of flu rates but the numbers for 19/20 for the US (estimates by the CDC) so far are:

Between 38 and 54 million illnesses
Between 17 and 25 million medical visits
390-710K hospitalisations
23-59K deaths.

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Huge. Does anyone know “how” you die of “flu complications”?

Is it respiratory akin to Coronavirus?

One of the scientists at Imperial College London involved in the government's modeling now saying deaths in the UK unlikely to reach 20,000 and the peak is due in 2 to 3 weeks around Easter.

Also forecasting that the UK will have sufficient ICU beds but "will get very close to capacity in some areas , but won't be breached at a national level".

This is from Professor Neil Ferguson at ICL.

If true then it's not unfeasible that we could be looking at a return to some form of normality by the summer.

I'm in a queue to amend my Morrison's click and collect order.

It says there are 130583 people in front of me!

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Originally Posted by Hibbyradge

I'm in a queue to amend my Morrison's click and collect order.

It says there are 130583 people in front of me!

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With social distancing that's 163 miles of queue.

I can't see how the US can avoid being the epicentre of this virus. Particularly with such a huge population living in poverty with no proper healthcare. And the slowest political response yet from a leader who seemed to be pretending until last week the virus didn't exist.

I know we are presecribing "by Google" but interesting anyway. Found this re Flu deaths in England...

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1n5k...ew?usp=sharing

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Originally Posted by danhibees1875

With social distancing that's 163 miles of queue.

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Might want to nip round to Scotmid instead :agree:

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Originally Posted by Since90+2

One of the scientists at Imperial College London involved in the government's modeling now saying deaths in the UK unlikely to reach 20,000 and the peak is due in 2 to 3 weeks around Easter.

Also forecasting that the UK will have sufficient ICU beds but "will get very close to capacity in some areas , but won't be breached at a national level".

This is from Professor Neil Ferguson at ICL.

If true then it's not unfeasible that we could be looking at a return to some form of normality by the summer.

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I think a return to normality is a bit hopeful. If we are staying under ICU capacity because of the restrictions then lifting them is just going to see the capacity stretched again.

Unless we either have a vaccine or test large numbers of people and they turn out +ve for antibodies.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

I think a return to normality is a bit hopeful. If we are staying under ICU capacity because of the restrictions then lifting them is just going to see the capacity stretched again.

Unless we either have a vaccine or test large numbers of people and they turn out +ve for antibodies.

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If as they are predicting it peaks in 2-3 weeks that then gives a further 10 weeks from that point until the summer.

That timeline would be similar to what has happened in China who are now getting back to some normality and cases are very few and far between.

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Originally Posted by Since90+2

If as they are predicting it peaks in 2-3 weeks that then gives a further 10 weeks from that point until the summer.

That timeline would be similar to what has happened in China who are now getting back to some normality and cases are very few and far between.

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Obviously I hope you're right. It may be that the virus has spread much further into the population than initially thought and some form of herd immunity exists there. If it doesn't, then there will be a second wave.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

I think a return to normality is a bit hopeful. If we are staying under ICU capacity because of the restrictions then lifting them is just going to see the capacity stretched again.

Unless we either have a vaccine or test large numbers of people and they turn out +ve for antibodies.

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Exactly. Is the virus just gonna disappear in 3 weeks once we've all self isolated. I don't think so.

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Originally Posted by Hibbyradge

But they are recorded.

It says that there are 331,122 cases with mild symptoms.

Of the 139,676 cases which have had a resolution so far, 16% have died.

I fully expect that I'm not understanding the data properly, but it seems contradictory to me. :dunno:

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My point was who records a mild case as recovered, not whether mild cases are recorded at detection.

Say I get tested and the results are positive but my symptoms are very mild. My positive case will be recorded in the stats but I won’t be admitted to hospital. Instead I’ll go home and self isolate until I recover. Once recovered I don’t phone up the doc to let them know my mild symptoms have now passed, I just get on with my life. Therefore you have one recorded case with mild symptoms and no corresponding record of recovery. Multiply that by the tens of thousands of mild cases and you have your discrepancy.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

Obviously I hope you're right. It may be that the virus has spread much further into the population than initially thought and some form of herd immunity exists there. If it doesn't, then there will be a second wave.

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Originally Posted by DH1875

Exactly. Is the virus just gonna disappear in 3 weeks once we've all self isolated. I don't think so.

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If there is a 2nd wave it may not come to lockdown next time. I should be less people getting infected due to those who have immunity from this wave and hopefully our nhs will have more capacity to deal with it. And there should be a more effective testing regime by then as well.
I think this lockdown should be all that’s needed.


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Originally Posted by CapitalGreen

My point was who records a mild case as recovered, not whether mild cases are recorded at detection.

Say I get tested and the results are positive but my symptoms are very mild. My positive case will be recorded in the stats but I won’t be admitted to hospital. Instead I’ll go home and self isolate until I recover. Once recovered I don’t phone up the doc to let them know my mild symptoms have now passed, I just get on with my life. Therefore you have one recorded case with mild symptoms and no corresponding record of recovery. Multiply that by the tens of thousands of mild cases and you have your discrepancy.

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I think it only lasts in your body for about 14 days so imagine after those 14 days you will be logged as cured maybe?


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Originally Posted by DH1875

Exactly. Is the virus just gonna disappear in 3 weeks once we've all self isolated. I don't think so.

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I think it's accepted that the virus will never disappear - it's here to stay, just like other coronaviruses. It's about getting to the point where it is under control with less new cases and more people recovering, and eventually a vaccine to protect those vulnerable to serious complications (similar to the annual flu jab).

Italian deaths down slightly again, but a big rise in new cases - over 6000 new ones

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Originally Posted by Barney McGrew

Italian deaths down slightly again, but a big rise in new cases - over 6000 new ones

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I saw something on the news earlier about there being a spread of the virus in the south now. Not sure if there has been an element of complaceny there because of the huge attention focused on the north.

If it is the case it's worrying as the south of Italy has nothing like the infrastructure of the north. It could be an even worse situation if that's imaginable.

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Originally Posted by HendoDelivered

I have been sent a letter from my boss about holidays in regards to what is going on just now. Whats everyones thoughts on this?

“During this period while you are on unpaid leave, you are not allowed to undertake any paid work. If you do take on any other paid work you will not be eligible for the government payments. As you will remain on the payroll of the company you will still be entitled to all the same employee rights however any holiday days which you have accrued so far will be deemed as taken once the government payments have been received. Just to clarify this: you are entitled to 28 days holiday per year, however you earn this by working, so for every month you work you earn a further 2.3 holiday days. At the end of April, you will have accrued 9.3 holiday days and if the lockdown lasts three weeks, these 9.3 days will be considered as taken. You will then have the remainder of your holidays to take during the rest of the year, but you will still need to hold aside 5 days to cover the Christmas period. If the lockdown lasts longer, then for every month it continues, that months holidays will also be deemed as taken.”

That’s a snippet about the holiday part, surely he can’t take our holidays from us?

FWIW I’’m not on unpaid leave, my work have taken up the furlough scheme as well so I will be getting paid while off. It’s the holiday part that has irked me.

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I think it's technically correct although I'm a bit out the loop on these things nowadays. I think being furloughed is essentially a leave of absence so you aren't working and therefore not able to accrue holidays.

Different employers will likely view it in different ways but legally I think they are probably protected in this instance. The part about taking on additional paid work and eligibility for the 80% scheme is worth highlighting. I've had to remind a few colleagues of that caveat as they have rushed to take on 2nd jobs after we were furloughed.

103 died today in the UK.

Biggest jump so far.

Apologies if already mentioned, but i find it incredible that the Scottish Government has brought an extra 1.5 million face masks that are still fit to use back from the central NHS Scotland stockpile during the coronavirus epidemic.

The masks had passed expiry dates of June and August 2019 but have gone through “extensive testing” which has shown them still fit for use.

If this virus hadn't happened would those masks have been disposed off ?, how much a waste of money would that be?

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

103 died today in the UK.

Biggest jump so far.

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Bugger. Was hoping the lower figures the last couple of days was us turning the corner.


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Originally Posted by alhibby

Apologies if already mentioned, but i find it incredible that the Scottish Government has brought an extra 1.5 million face masks that are still fit to use back from the central NHS Scotland stockpile during the coronavirus epidemic.

The masks had passed expiry dates of June and August 2019 but have gone through “extensive testing” which has shown them still fit for use.

If this virus hadn't happened would those masks have been disposed off ?, how much a waste of money would that be?

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Probably due to the potential of liability, asking staff to use something that has passed its expiry date would likely leave them wide open to someone becoming infected with something and pursuing them for negligence. Now that they have been tested and proved fit for purpose they can apply a new use by date.

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Originally Posted by Scouse Hibee

Probably due to the potential of liability, asking staff to use something that has passed its expiry date would likely leave them wide open to someone becoming infected with something and pursuing them for negligence. Now that they have been tested and proved fit for purpose they can apply a new use by date.

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It’s the same with all expiry date issues in food. They are, quite rightly, covering their *****. Personally, I ignore the given dates, within reason, and I use my sense of smell, taste and sight to decide if it’s fit to eat. Family flowers only at my funeral please. :greengrin

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Originally Posted by danhibees1875

With social distancing that's 163 miles of queue.

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Brilliant :applause:

How many people died of swine flu in 2009/10?

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Originally Posted by Jim44

It’s the same with all expiry date issues in food. They are, quite rightly, covering their *****. Personally, I ignore the given dates, within reason, and I use my sense of smell, taste and sight to decide if it’s fit to eat. Family flowers only at my funeral please. :greengrin

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I’m the same at home, but not when I carry out audits doing my job 😁

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Originally Posted by Hiberniankb

How many people died of swine flu in 2009/10?

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Officially just over 18000 from approx 700 million cases. There are huge variations in the number of estimated deaths and cases though. High end estimates are 500K deaths from 1.4 billion infections.

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Originally Posted by Hibby Bairn

Might want to nip round to Scotmid instead :agree:

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Yorkmid

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Bugger. Was hoping the lower figures the last couple of days was us turning the corner

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They changed the reporting time yesterday. IIRC we used to report deaths up to 1pm each day, whereas now it’s up to 7am. That’s why yesterday’s numbers were lower and today’s higher....the ‘real’ number each day would have been c75.