Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

Bit of a rude response to the journalist there from Sturgeon when he asked if he could be heard. I wonder if there's previous between them?

First time I've heard her make such a response during these press briefings.

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She looked stressed before it even began today. Time to delegate, there must be others she can trust to take the briefings on a more regular basis.

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Originally Posted by marinello59

She looked stressed before it even began today. Time to delegate, there must be others she can trust to take the briefings on a more regular basis.

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Didn't get that sense at all. Think that's been a masterclass in briefing compared with what goes on dan sarf. She was only momentarily short with the journo - wonder if people will call her nippy because of it? :dunno:

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Didn't get that sense at all. Think that's been a masterclass in briefing compared with what goes on dan sarf. She was only momentarily short with the journo - wonder if people will call her nippy because of it? :dunno:

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I said to my wife before it kicked off that Sturgeon looked out of sorts. Just my opinion of course. In general her communication has been streets ahead of whats coming out of Westminster. That’s not really hard though is it, only Trump tops Bojo and Co for lessons in how not to do it.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Didn't get that sense at all. Think that's been a masterclass in briefing compared with what goes on dan sarf. She was only momentarily short with the journo - wonder if people will call her nippy because of it? :dunno:

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He was from the sun so it’s all good.

Did she say anything of note regarding low testing levels, information around the R number, or timings for any sort of exit plan being presented?

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Originally Posted by danhibees1875

Did she say anything of note regarding low testing levels, information around the R number, or timings for any sort of exit plan being presented?

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There was a bit of a build up to a piece on how the R number is calculated on the Scottish lunchtime news on the BBC. I expected some sort of specifics, in the end it was the same stuff we have already heard before repeated by a different person.

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Originally Posted by danhibees1875

Did she say anything of note regarding low testing levels, information around the R number, or timings for any sort of exit plan being presented?

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She didn’t say much about testing, but is it possible that there just isn’t a big enough take up in the testing from the public? I’ve seen a few cases of people saying they booked a test and they had it done with a couple hours.

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

There was a bit of a build up to a piece on how the R number is calculated on the Scottish lunchtime news on the BBC. I expected some sort of specifics, in the end it was the same stuff we have already heard before repeated by a different person.

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What I took more from today's briefing than in previous days was that I thought she stressed the importance of getting the amount of cases down alongside the R number. Basically saying that you can tolerate a higher R number if you have very few cases. I know it's just commonsense, but I can't recall her giving so much emphasis to it before.

I suppose it's why countries with low levels of existing cases who are now coming out of lockdown won't stress so much about the R number fluctuating so it occasionally hits 1 or between 1 and 2.

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Originally Posted by lord bunberry

She didn’t say much about testing, but is it possible that there just isn’t a big enough take up in the testing from the public? I’ve seen a few cases of people saying they booked a test and they had it done with a couple hours.

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However, surely you would only be going to get tested if you have symptoms of the virus. Could it be that really not many people have it in any case at the moment

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

There was a bit of a build up to a piece on how the R number is calculated on the Scottish lunchtime news on the BBC. I expected some sort of specifics, in the end it was the same stuff we have already heard before repeated by a different person.

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Fair enough - hopefully they release something eventually.

I appreciate it's probably complicated and has its flaws but it would be nice to know the range of R number that we think applies and how quickly it changes, what makes it different to the rest of the UK, and if it's the right thing to be using to decide next steps.

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Originally Posted by lord bunberry

She didn’t say much about testing, but is it possible that there just isn’t a big enough take up in the testing from the public? I’ve seen a few cases of people saying they booked a test and they had it done with a couple hours.

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Possibly. But you would think this would then get reported.

The UK government are constantly lagging behind their testing targets (targets they seemed keen to increase) and we're doing even worse.

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Originally Posted by danhibees1875

Fair enough - hopefully they release something eventually.

I appreciate it's probably complicated and has its flaws but it would be nice to know the range of R number that we think applies and how quickly it changes, what makes it different to the rest of the UK, and if it's the right thing to be using to decide next steps.



Possibly. But you would think this would then get reported.

The UK government are constantly lagging behind their testing targets (targets they seemed keen to increase) and we're doing even worse.

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I think the Scottish testing numbers are excluding those that are taking place in the UK testing banner...I’m not sure though as both governments fudged their target numbers at end of April and have been rather reluctant to clarify anything about them since.

Scottish new cases still seem to be dominated by care home numbers. Using the BBC graph that suggests almost 140 new care home cases today...so a huge portion of the 188 new cases reported.

The new cases have been dominated by care homes for a while but today it seems they are almost exclusive to them. While tragic for those in care homes it does (at least using the very course data provided) suggest that community transmission is as good as zero.

Which leads me to wonder just where that R number is coming from and if it’s actually any use in evidencing the wider threat.

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Originally Posted by PaulSmith

I’d like if the Scot Govt gave details of where the new cases are coming from. I suspect that the vast majority are within the care home or hospital environment.

As we move through the next week I fully expect to see a further reduction.

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Covid stats are here

https://www.gov.scot/publications/co...-for-scotland/

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Originally Posted by DJ HIBBY

However, surely you would only be going to get tested if you have symptoms of the virus. Could it be that really not many people have it in any case at the moment

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That’s what I thought. Yesterday there were around 84,000 negative tests in the U.K. (maybe just England). Either way what “symptoms” are these 84,000 presenting? That’s almost 600,000 a week or 2.5m a month 😳

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Originally Posted by Hibby Bairn

That’s what I thought. Yesterday there were around 84,000 negative tests in the U.K. (maybe just England). Either way what “symptoms” are these 84,000 presenting? That’s almost 600,000 a week or 2.5m a month 😳

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Perhaps just the common cold, that virus hasn’t disappeared or been replaced by Covid

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Originally Posted by Hibby Bairn

That’s what I thought. Yesterday there were around 84,000 negative tests in the U.K. (maybe just England). Either way what “symptoms” are these 84,000 presenting? That’s almost 600,000 a week or 2.5m a month 😳

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Remember the test isn't reliable, so maybe 25,000 of the 84,000 will have been presenting with Covid symptoms and had Covid.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Remember the test isn't reliable, so maybe 25,000 of the 84,000 will have been presenting with Covid symptoms and had Covid.

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Or as I said perhaps just symptoms of the common cold. It does still exist

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Originally Posted by lord bunberry

He was from the sun so it’s all good.

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I'm unlikely ever to vote SNP and I'd tear what little hair I have in my head out if I had to listen to Salmond or, God forbid, Ian Blackford, but Nicola has really impressed even me. She's level headed, communicates well and is doing the best she can given the situation. And I'd not trade places with her for all the money in the world. On a human level, there's a person who deserves a holiday after this. Decisions she's making, info she's being told (that we aren't) and worst-case-scenarios she's looking at day after day for weeks now must be taking their toll. I'm all for transparency etc, and I didn't see the interview, but at a time like this she deserves a bit of delicate handling.

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Originally Posted by danhibees1875

Did she say anything of note regarding low testing levels, information around the R number, or timings for any sort of exit plan being presented?

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She mentioned that she 'hasn't ruled out' a regionalised easing of the lockdown in Scotland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52662970

If it's getting tricky to follow the varying lockdown measures across the four home nations then this could add a whole new layer of complexity.

Today’s numbers represent another small drop in UK deaths, which is good.

I can’t help but still be afraid of what we’re going to see in 2 weeks time though. Seeing the images from the tube and busses in London is horrendous, and just asking for another explosion.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52662066

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Remember the test isn't reliable, so maybe 25,000 of the 84,000 will have been presenting with Covid symptoms and had Covid.

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Urmm I think your maths are a bit skewed. You can’t just take 30% of the 84,000 negatives and say they could be positive because an 30% error rate. This is due to the fact that a lot of people taking the test are not infected no matter what the test says.

So It all depends on how many of the 84,000 are expected to be positive in the first place.

For example using an example of 1 in 10 taking the test are positive and 30% being missed by the test then you only miss 3 out of every 100.

So for yesterday that would end up with about 2,500 being a false negative.

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Originally Posted by G B Young

She mentioned that she 'hasn't ruled out' a regionalised easing of the lockdown in Scotland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52662970

If it's getting tricky to follow the varying lockdown measures across the four home nations then this could add a whole new layer of complexity.

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That would be, quite frankly, utter stupidity from the Scottish Government if they do that. If you tell people in North Lanarkshire that they can see their families via a very small social bubble approach, but that people in West Lothian couldn’t do the same, how long do you give it before a family from Shotts are driving to West Calder to see granny...it cannot be policed, unless Police Scotland are going to set up county level road checkpoints.

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Originally Posted by SideBurns

What I took more from today's briefing than in previous days was that I thought she stressed the importance of getting the amount of cases down alongside the R number. Basically saying that you can tolerate a higher R number if you have very few cases. I know it's just commonsense, but I can't recall her giving so much emphasis to it before.

I suppose it's why countries with low levels of existing cases who are now coming out of lockdown won't stress so much about the R number fluctuating so it occasionally hits 1 or between 1 and 2.

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Spot on. She had to mention it a few times for the Journos, even though some of them had been at the technical briefings earlier on.

She must be waking every morning and looking at what's getting reported, and feeling like going back to bed.

The STV tweet last night, basically advertising the far right group who want to party in the parks of Scotland on Saturday is well over the top, but not unusual in Scotland.

HC1 care group must be crapping it, as they'll be hauled over the coals when this all finishes.

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Originally Posted by marinello59

She looked stressed before it even began today. Time to delegate, there must be others she can trust to take the briefings on a more regular basis.

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She may still be smarting from the accusations of a 'cover-up' over the Nike conference the other day. That was the first time I saw her react really angrily at one of these briefings when asked about it.

As you say, she's a politician not an epidemiologist and it must be draining focusing her entire attention day-in day-out on something so far removed from politics. She should delegate a bit more often. I think there have only been a few days when she's done so.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Remember the test isn't reliable, so maybe 25,000 of the 84,000 will have been presenting with Covid symptoms and had Covid.

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Part of the reason why news of the new UK antibody test is so important.

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Originally Posted by G B Young

She may still be smarting from the accusations of a 'cover-up' over the Nike conference the other day. That was the first time I saw her react really angrily at one of these briefings when asked about it.

As you say, she's a politician not an epidemiologist and it must be draining focusing her entire attention day-in day-out on something so far removed from politics. She should delegate a bit more often. I think there have only been a few days when she's done so.

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She could just make it go quicker by stating its a nasty question.

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Originally Posted by Captain Trips

She could just make it go quicker by stating its a nasty question.

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to be fair, she snapped at the guy before he'd even asked his question, she got quite short (tempered) with him when he was asking if he could be heard

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Originally Posted by Sylar

That would be, quite frankly, utter stupidity from the Scottish Government if they do that. If you tell people in North Lanarkshire that they can see their families via a very small social bubble approach, but that people in West Lothian couldn’t do the same, how long do you give it before a family from Shotts are driving to West Calder to see granny...it cannot be policed, unless Police Scotland are going to set up county level road checkpoints.

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I can see why it might be considered bearing in mind that the majority of cases are in the central belt - and indeed you could also look at it for England where there are big differences in infection rates across the country - but as you say the logistics involved would be extremely challenging.

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Originally Posted by G B Young

She may still be smarting from the accusations of a 'cover-up' over the Nike conference the other day. That was the first time I saw her react really angrily at one of these briefings when asked about it.

As you say, she's a politician not an epidemiologist and it must be draining focusing her entire attention day-in day-out on something so far removed from politics. She should delegate a bit more often. I think there have only been a few days when she's done so.

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She answered the Nike question, and gave a more full account. On her acting "really angrily", you must have lead a sheltered life, either that, or you're not married to a Scot. :wink:

She got hacked off a bit with, Andy Nicoll, from the Sun, when he tried to generate a headline about Jason Leitch. The Sun, playing politics...Never.

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Originally Posted by Sylar

Today’s numbers represent another small drop in UK deaths, which is good.

I can’t help but still be afraid of what we’re going to see in 2 weeks time though. Seeing the images from the tube and busses in London is horrendous, and just asking for another explosion.

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What we may see in 2 weeks they can say that was our own fault, irrespective of why people needed to be on the bus or the tube irrespective of how vital that journey is or was folk made a decision to not socially distance. If you are sitting on tube with plenty of room and next stop 20 folk get on and suddenly people are within 2 feet of you would it bother you less if you knew that person would get sacked if didnt turn up for shift? Sorry i am not saying you in particular Sylar just putting it out there.

Truth is we do not know the people on the commute and as anywhere I am not happy if somebody is encroaching ignorantly into well under my 2m gap texting or chatting on a phone even if they are out getting messages for folk i will never know that.

With every place the reopens the distancing starts to become more difficult as they cant re open if staff cant get there.

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

Urmm I think your maths are a bit skewed. You can’t just take 30% of the 84,000 negatives and say they could be positive because an 30% error rate. This is due to the fact that a lot of people taking the test are not infected no matter what the test says.

So It all depends on how many of the 84,000 are expected to be positive in the first place.

For example using an example of 1 in 10 taking the test are positive and 30% being missed by the test then you only miss 3 out of every 100.

So for yesterday that would end up with about 2,500 being a false negative.

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Ok, "up to maybe 25,000". Point I wanted to make is that the current testing is hugely unreliable. Dr David Katz did a spell in an NY hospital at peak and tells a story of 20 patients who all the clinicians were absolutely certain had Covid, and 19 of them tested negative.

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Originally Posted by ronaldo7

Spot on. She had to mention it a few times for the Journos, even though some of them had been at the technical briefings earlier on.

She must be waking every morning and looking at what's getting reported, and feeling like going back to bed.

The STV tweet last night, basically advertising the far right group who want to party in the parks of Scotland on Saturday is well over the top, but not unusual in Scotland.

HC1 care group must be crapping it, as they'll be hauled over the coals when this all finishes.

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Care inspectorate take action to cancel HC1 registration for Home Farm.

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Originally Posted by G B Young

She may still be smarting from the accusations of a 'cover-up' over the Nike conference the other day. That was the first time I saw her react really angrily at one of these briefings when asked about it.

As you say, she's a politician not an epidemiologist and it must be draining focusing her entire attention day-in day-out on something so far removed from politics. She should delegate a bit more often. I think there have only been a few days when she's done so.

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The Nike thing was a difficult one. The contact tracing done was either not done very well, or someone somewhere in the chain of command hasn't told the truth.

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Originally Posted by Sylar

That would be, quite frankly, utter stupidity from the Scottish Government if they do that. If you tell people in North Lanarkshire that they can see their families via a very small social bubble approach, but that people in West Lothian couldn’t do the same, how long do you give it before a family from Shotts are driving to West Calder to see granny...it cannot be policed, unless Police Scotland are going to set up county level road checkpoints.

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It was in response to a question about border area and indicated it could happen nothing more than that. She has clearly indicated the importance of clear messaging so imo this will never happen. Honestly no idea why that merited a headline.

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Originally Posted by G B Young

Part of the reason why news of the new UK antibody test is so important.

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Swiss test isn't it? UK haven't bought any yet, just approved it.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Swiss test I think. UK haven't bought any yet, just approved it.

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Yep developed by Roche based in Switzerland

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Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns

Care inspectorate take action to cancel HC1 registration for Home Farm.

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Oh well, they can maybe transfer those who travelled to Skye during lockdown, back to Kent then.:aok:

https://t.co/nsJjfxGLz1?amp=1

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Originally Posted by G B Young

She mentioned that she 'hasn't ruled out' a regionalised easing of the lockdown in Scotland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52662970

If it's getting tricky to follow the varying lockdown measures across the four home nations then this could add a whole new layer of complexity.

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Logistically challenging but I don't think it's a terrible proposal so long as there is clear science to back it up and they explain it properly.

I don't think it's too tricky to follow the measures as they currently stand, you pick the one that applies to you based on where you live and follow them.

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Originally Posted by danhibees1875

Logistically challenging but I don't think it's a terrible proposal so long as there is clear science to back it up and they explain it properly.

I don't think it's too tricky to follow the measures as they currently stand, you pick the one that applies to you based on where you live and follow them.

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I have a neighbour who is an NHS worker based in Fife, he has relatives in port Glasgow and they have told him that greenock and port Glasgow is like normal at the weekend, groups of people sitting around the town centre drinking and smoking as if there is no danger to themselves.

Neither wonder Inverclyde has the highest numbers of cases and deaths in Scotland.

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Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns

I have a neighbour who is an NHS worker based in Fife, he has relatives in port Glasgow and they have told him that greenock and port Glasgow is like normal at the weekend, groups of people sitting around the town centre drinking and smoking as if there is no danger to themselves.

Neither wonder Inverclyde has the highest numbers of cases and deaths in Scotland.

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Thought that was their behaviour all week :greengrin

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Originally Posted by Captain Trips

Thought that was their behaviour all week :greengrin

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It probably is but he only mentioned the weekend because that was when his sister in law went shopping.

This is a park near me that i enjoy going to, looks like i wont be on Saturday if this nonsense is on the cards:



https://www.heraldscotland.com/resou...e=article-full

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Originally Posted by Captain Trips

This is a park near me that i enjoy going to, looks like i wont be on Saturday if this nonsense is on the cards:



https://www.heraldscotland.com/resou...e=article-full

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It’s Britain First hiding under this new ‘Freedom’ tag. Protests planned all over the country. Hopefully there is nothing to it and you get a few dozen huns singing ‘No Surrender’.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/14/police-vow-to-break-up-planned-anti-lockdown-protests-in-uk-cities

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Ok, "up to maybe 25,000". Point I wanted to make is that the current testing is hugely unreliable. Dr David Katz did a spell in an NY hospital at peak and tells a story of 20 patients who all the clinicians were absolutely certain had Covid, and 19 of them tested negative.

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Sorry but you still can’t get to 25,000 more positives from only 3,500 actual positives unless the test is as good as useless. Or you have 1 in 3 who are presenting are actually infected and your test is only about 10% accurate. Neither of those two scenarios are remotely likely.

As for the 95% inaccuracy figure from Dr Katz...well who knows but that would suggest the test they did was useless or they didn’t process them correctly. Did he clarify what the result was when they re-tested the patients correctly?

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Originally Posted by Captain Trips

This is a park near me that i enjoy going to, looks like i wont be on Saturday if this nonsense is on the cards:



https://www.heraldscotland.com/resou...e=article-full

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Muppets

No irony spotted in the say yes to life tag.

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

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Originally Posted by Captain Trips

This is a park near me that i enjoy going to, looks like i wont be on Saturday if this nonsense is on the cards:



https://www.heraldscotland.com/resou...e=article-full

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The Edinburgh ones are scheduled for Holyrood Park and bizarrely, Hillwood Park, which is in deepest darkest Blackhall. I'm guessing the organiser lives there and fancies a long lie on Saturday.

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Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod

The Edinburgh ones are scheduled for Holyrood Park and bizarrely, Hillwood Park, which is in deepest darkest Blackhall. I'm guessing the organiser lives there and fancies a long lie on Saturday.

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I hope they stay away from Holyrood Park. It's busy enough as it is on weekends.

Grant Shapps “when people are speaking to their GP online, why are people still buying paper train tickets”

Eh wtf ??

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

Sorry but you still can’t get to 25,000 more positives from only 3,500 actual positives unless the test is as good as useless. Or you have 1 in 3 who are presenting are actually infected and your test is only about 10% accurate. Neither of those two scenarios are remotely likely.

As for the 95% inaccuracy figure from Dr Katz...well who knows but that would suggest the test they did was useless or they didn’t process them correctly. Did he clarify what the result was when they re-tested the patients correctly?

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I didn't say it was 25,000. I agree that's highly unlikely to be a correct figure. You originally chose a figure of 1 in 10 actually infected. Why did you choose that, given that the overwhelming majority of the tests would have been on people who either had symptoms or were in some sort of contact with infected people?

I'm not sure that Katz's patients were re-tested at all. He was in a department mainly concerned with keeping them alive, and the clinicians already knew what they were treating.

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Originally Posted by Callum_62

Muppets

No irony spotted in the say yes to life tag.

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

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One for the Darwin awards. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod

The Edinburgh ones are scheduled for Holyrood Park and bizarrely, Hillwood Park, which is in deepest darkest Blackhall. I'm guessing the organiser lives there and fancies a long lie on Saturday.

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I think someone should organise counter-demonstrations at both venues against mass gatherings. That would show them. Of course, nobody could attend but that would be the point.

Jings, I have some braw ideas!

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Originally Posted by SideBurns

I think someone should organise counter-demonstrations at both venues against mass gatherings. That would show them. Of course, nobody could attend but that would be the point.

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Count me in/out for that. :agree:

0.27% of the general public (critically outside of care home and hospitals) in England have had C19.

Of that 148,000 how many even knew they had it, how many had mild symptoms and further how many had to visit the hospital?


This kind of information is a continuation of the ‘positive’ news from the Govt and one that should be welcomed and repeated by the Scot Govt.

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Originally Posted by SideBurns

I think someone should organise counter-demonstrations at both venues against mass gatherings. That would show them. Of course, nobody could attend but that would be the point.

Jings, I have some braw ideas!

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Wimbledon MK Dons all over again:agree:

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Originally Posted by hibsbollah

Wimbledon MK Dons all over again:agree:

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😂

Grant Shapps. Part Sméagol, part Jason Donavan. The usual stuff. I’m not sure we’re learning anything from this anymore, it’s just media methadone.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

I didn't say it was 25,000. I agree that's highly unlikely to be a correct figure. You originally chose a figure of 1 in 10 actually infected. Why did you choose that, given that the overwhelming majority of the tests would have been on people who either had symptoms or were in some sort of contact with infected people?

I'm not sure that Katz's patients were re-tested at all. He was in a department mainly concerned with keeping them alive, and the clinicians already knew what they were treating.

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I chose 1 in 10 as it was a nice round number to help evidence the point ;-)

But also because by any metric you choose from any country and any test they are using shows that the vast majority of tests result in a negative result.

The fact is that most presenting for the CV-19 test (with related symptoms or not) are still not actually infected with CV-19.

Anyway I was simply pointing out that your 25,000 figure was the result of a flawed calculation and wasn’t remotely possible. That much remains the case so I’ll leave it there.

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Originally Posted by grunt

I hope they stay away from Holyrood Park. It's busy enough as it is on weekends.

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Then again, some might hope that they do congregate, exchange lots of bodily fluids, stay away from decent people and then spike the numbers in a few weeks.

😷

I honestly think it's approaching the point at which the daily briefings should be scrapped. Do we really learn anything from them? NS stands and repeats the same things every day and gets asked the same questions over and over. The UK briefings and the ability of the participants to use 5000 words to say nothing at all is almost a skill in itself. Cut it to twice weekly or whatever and talk when you have something worth saying.

I suppose the counter argument could be that it would signal something of a return to normality and that would give out the wrong message.

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Originally Posted by PaulSmith

0.27% of the general public (critically outside of care home and hospitals) in England have had C19.

Of that 148,000 how many even knew they had it, how many had mild symptoms and further how many had to visit the hospital?


This kind of information is a continuation of the ‘positive’ news from the Govt and one that should be welcomed and repeated by the Scot Govt.

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If this is accurate then isn't it bad news? It makes the mortality rate massive?

I don't see how it can be accurate without an antibody test anyway? Isn't it that 0.27% of the population had the virus at the moment they were tested?

Edit: yes, it's an attempt to measure currently infected people - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52662066

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

I chose 1 in 10 as it was a nice round number to help evidence the point ;-)

But also because by any metric you choose from any country and any test they are using shows that the vast majority of tests result in a negative result.

The fact is that most presenting for the CV-19 test (with related symptoms or not) are still not actually infected with CV-19.

Anyway I was simply pointing out that your 25,000 figure was the result of a flawed calculation and wasn’t remotely possible. That much remains the case so I’ll leave it there.

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There's a circularity here. Basing a conclusion of how many people are infected on the result of a test which is known to be fallible is flawed. All countries are presumably using similar tests on a disease about which very little is known. I wouldn't be surprised if the definition of Covid-19 changes over time and eventually there will be a better antigen test which results in higher infection rates than currently reported. Speculating though, so so will I.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

If this is accurate then isn't it bad news? It makes the mortality rate massive?

I don't see how it can be accurate without an antibody test anyway? Isn't it that 0.27% of the population had the virus at the moment they were tested?

Edit: yes, it's an attempt to measure currently infected people - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52662066

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That makes more sense. :agree:

I'm not sure if we'll ever know the number of people who have ever had it, but I think we want it to be significantly higher than 0.27%!

The number of people currently estimated to have it (known people or unknown people) is presumably something to be used with the r number when it comes to assessing the impact of lifting lockdown.

Garden and recycling centres open in NI from Monday. Is our R number or whatever so bad that we stay in the dark?

Are we being over cautious or not?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Swiss test isn't it? UK haven't bought any yet, just approved it.

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Yes, developed by Roche (amazing company) but the first one approved in UK after all previous antibody tests proved useless. 100% accuracy when testing those who have had the virus and 99.8% accuracy for those who haven't had it. Potentially massive news so fingers crossed for this when it gets rolled out in the UK (apparently over the next couple of weeks).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

If this is accurate then isn't it bad news? It makes the mortality rate massive?

I don't see how it can be accurate without an antibody test anyway? Isn't it that 0.27% of the population had the virus at the moment they were tested?

Edit: yes, it's an attempt to measure currently infected people - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52662066

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To quote the BBC journo:


“This figure suggests my personal chances of catching the virus are quite low at the moment”

For quite low you could replace with negligible.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by danhibees1875

That makes more sense. :agree:

I'm not sure if we'll ever know the number of people who have ever had it, but I think we want it to be significantly higher than 0.27%!

The number of people currently estimated to have it (known people or unknown people) is presumably something to be used with the r number when it comes to assessing the impact of lifting lockdown.

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The Kings College symptom tracker study is estimating over 240K are actively symptomatic as of 11th May. I think they have the total symptomatic cases at over 3M since the study started.

That's based on a study of over 3.5M people reporting symptoms or lack thereof regularly. What they do with those figures after they get them to reach their estimated figure I don't know. They currently estimate about 0.9% of people in Edinburgh have symptomatic infection.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DaveF

Garden and recycling centres open in NI from Monday. Is our R number or whatever so bad that we stay in the dark?

Are we being over cautious or not?

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Yes we absolutely are. Understandable but becoming more difficult to support as the days go on.

We are now an outlier from almost all other nations in Europe.

17.28 Italy reports death toll on the rise

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Hopefully a one-off rise. More alarmingly though, their true current death toll is 'estimated to be well in excess of 50,000 when deaths at home and in care homes are ultimately collated and included'

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DaveF

Garden and recycling centres open in NI from Monday. Is our R number or whatever so bad that we stay in the dark?

Are we being over cautious or not?

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Some of the behavioural science is suggesting that it would be much harder to effectively impose a second lockdown, if this one is released too early and cases rise rapidly, and that may be why ScotGov is being cautious.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by G B Young

17.28 Italy reports death toll on the rise

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Hopefully a one-off rise. More alarmingly though, their true current death toll is 'estimated to be well in excess of 50,000 when deaths at home and in care homes are ultimately collated and included'

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It's probably over 100,000 deaths between the UK and italy

Shocking really

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

I don't think we have a clue how many people have contacted this, my partner has tested positive, and i have been with her constantly for the last 5 weeks.

Her test could have been wrong, i've not had a test, they wouldn't give me one, but have had some of the symptoms.

There are so many ifs and buts, a lot of it is just pure guesswork.

From being terrified of catching this, to seeing what my partner went through, which was bad enough without going to hospital, to knowing what i had which was nothing, there seems to be such a difference in what everyone goes through, its impossible to know the true figures, or even making a guess at it.

There’s very few things that get me really annoyed, but this has really pissed me off. What a horrible individual
https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/...941088769?s=21

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lord bunberry

There’s very few things that get me really annoyed, but this has really pissed me off. What a horrible individual
https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/...941088769?s=21

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Unfortunately the country is full of idiots with the platform of various social media to flaunt their stupidity

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Berwickhibby

Unfortunately the country is full of idiots with the platform of various social media to flaunt their stupidity

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Many of them politicians.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ronaldo7

Spot on. She had to mention it a few times for the Journos, even though some of them had been at the technical briefings earlier on.

She must be waking every morning and looking at what's getting reported, and feeling like going back to bed.

The STV tweet last night, basically advertising the far right group who want to party in the parks of Scotland on Saturday is well over the top, but not unusual in Scotland.

HC1 care group must be crapping it, as they'll be hauled over the coals when this all finishes.

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When this is all over let’s hope that we move far beyond focussing on one company involved in a high profile case to fixing a system overseen by our Governments which has so badly let down a generation of our most vulnerable at their time of need. It’s shameful.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PaulSmith

0.27% of the general public (critically outside of care home and hospitals) in England have had C19.

Of that 148,000 how many even knew they had it, how many had mild symptoms and further how many had to visit the hospital?


This kind of information is a continuation of the ‘positive’ news from the Govt and one that should be welcomed and repeated by the Scot Govt.

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Maybe I'm missing something, but how can it be seen to be positive when only 0.27% of the population have had Covid19 and we've had nearly 34 000 deaths, how high will the death count be when we've had say 25%?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Berwickhibby

Unfortunately the country is full of idiots with the platform of various social media to flaunt their stupidity

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That’s true unfortunately.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

Maybe I'm missing something, but how can it be seen to be positive when only 0.27% of the population have had Covid19 and we've had nearly 34 000 deaths, how high will the death count be when we've had say 25%?

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0.27 is a figure for live cases (outside healthcare).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

0.27 is a figure for live cases (outside healthcare).

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That makes more sense, that's not what PS said in his post though.

I see Boris is out showing his appreciation for the NHS again. Merkel does something similar for the German health services, she gives them proper funding.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

Maybe I'm missing something, but how can it be seen to be positive when only 0.27% of the population have had Covid19 and we've had nearly 34 000 deaths, how high will the death count be when we've had say 25%?

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It’s not “have had”. It’s “actually had at the time”.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PaulSmith

Yes we absolutely are. Understandable but becoming more difficult to support as the days go on.

We are now an outlier from almost all other nations in Europe.

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Only 4 out of 15 Scottish NHS Regions now have more than 5 people in ICU. Across Lothian there are 10 people in ICU.

On the 10th April there were 40.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by marinello59

When this is all over let’s hope that we move far beyond focussing on one company involved in a high profile case to fixing a system overseen by our Governments which has so badly let down a generation of our most vulnerable at their time of need. It’s shameful.

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:agree: I think I said this about 16 pages back. :aok:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

I see Boris is out showing his appreciation for the NHS again. Merkel does something similar for the German health services, she gives them proper funding.

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when I lived and worked in Germany we paid insurance to different companies my krankenkasse was Barma if my memory is correct, I did not think the Government funded the health system like we do with NHS ....but admittedly that was 30 years plus ago.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

I see Boris is out showing his appreciation for the NHS again. Merkel does something similar for the German health services, she gives them proper funding.

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Clapping whilst plans are already being put in place to freeze their wages.

Prepare for a different Edinburgh when we start opening up.

https://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/news/ar...g-in-edinburgh

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

Maybe I'm missing something, but how can it be seen to be positive when only 0.27% of the population have had Covid19 and we've had nearly 34 000 deaths, how high will the death count be when we've had say 25%?

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Outside of care homes and hospitals the risk of catching C19 seems to be very small and the risk of death outside these environments seems even smaller.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ronaldo7

Prepare for a different Edinburgh when we start opening up.

https://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/news/ar...g-in-edinburgh

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I suspect that C19 will be used in every industry, business, govt and council across the UK as the reason to implement all sorts of things. Some good and some that cause concern.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hibby Bairn

Only 4 out of 15 Scottish NHS Regions now have more than 5 people in ICU. Across Lothian there are 10 people in ICU.

On the 10th April there were 40.

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What number do you think the Scot Govt are looking to achieve before relaxing the lockdown or even giving us the opportunity to look at their plan?

People over 100 year old passing away were being used as reasons to keep the lockdown on the STV news earlier.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

The Kings College symptom tracker study is estimating over 240K are actively symptomatic as of 11th May. I think they have the total symptomatic cases at over 3M since the study started.

That's based on a study of over 3.5M people reporting symptoms or lack thereof regularly. What they do with those figures after they get them to reach their estimated figure I don't know. They currently estimate about 0.9% of people in Edinburgh have symptomatic infection.

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Thanks. :aok:

I think I'd seen the 240k number and thought 180k was an update. Maybe that's too much of a decrease and these are just different methods.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PaulSmith

What number do you think the Scot Govt are looking to achieve before relaxing the lockdown or even giving us the opportunity to look at their plan?

People over 100 year old passing away were being used as reasons to keep the lockdown on the STV news earlier.

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A balance between the R number, new infections and new hospital admissions will determine when things are eased not a drop in the death rate or icu as single measures.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Captain Trips

What we may see in 2 weeks they can say that was our own fault, irrespective of why people needed to be on the bus or the tube irrespective of how vital that journey is or was folk made a decision to not socially distance. If you are sitting on tube with plenty of room and next stop 20 folk get on and suddenly people are within 2 feet of you would it bother you less if you knew that person would get sacked if didnt turn up for shift? Sorry i am not saying you in particular Sylar just putting it out there.

Truth is we do not know the people on the commute and as anywhere I am not happy if somebody is encroaching ignorantly into well under my 2m gap texting or chatting on a phone even if they are out getting messages for folk i will never know that.

With every place the reopens the distancing starts to become more difficult as they cant re open if staff cant get there.

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You're absolutely right - the Government have created a perfect environment for being able to blame us rather than accept their own failings. They've pushed those people who rely on TFL (because don't most people in London?!) back into work, and to hell with the ramifications.

I'm absolutely nowhere near an SNP man, but thank goodness the Scottish Government are exercising a little more caution. And I say that as someone who's utterly had enough of this lockdown.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PaulSmith

What number do you think the Scot Govt are looking to achieve before relaxing the lockdown or even giving us the opportunity to look at their plan?

People over 100 year old passing away were being used as reasons to keep the lockdown on the STV news earlier.

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No idea. Since starting to publish stats for ICU there has only been three days where the numbers have been lower than the past two days. Lowest since 26th March.

Roughly 40% of new infection are community. There were 188 in total yesterday so roughly 75 “community” across Scotland. But many/most of these would have been key worker/hospital. Population 5.5m.

In Lothian yesterday there were 31 new cases. Assuming 60% were care homes then that means there were 12 new “community” cases. Population 898,000.

Maybe they want it at zero.

This thread is eye opening

https://twitter.com/laurelchor/statu...159442434?s=19

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sylar

You're absolutely right - the Government have created a perfect environment for being able to blame us rather than accept their own failings. They've pushed those people who rely on TFL (because don't most people in London?!) back into work, and to hell with the ramifications.

I'm absolutely nowhere near an SNP man, but thank goodness the Scottish Government are exercising a little more caution. And I say that as someone who's utterly had enough of this lockdown.

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I agree to a point but lets take this from now. The Government have failed no doubt not done their jobs well enough. The buses or trains should only be in operation if the 2m distance can be implemented. I understand that people need to earn money 100% but why should I care about that if I was isolated on a train only then to have my space taken over by that person? Who maybe ill. When the bus or train leaves first stop and if far from full there must be some point when people are getting on knowing they are too close and IMO thats wrong.

We can say the Government put them in that position but that then is not almost carte blanche to just do what you like. WE all have our lives to lead but the simple fact of me walking over to you and being within 1 feet of you could cost you or a family member their life but I need to earn £200 or I am chucked out my flat, are you ok with that?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Captain Trips

I agree to a point but lets take this from now. The Government have failed no doubt not done their jobs well enough. The buses or trains should only be in operation if the 2m distance can be implemented. I understand that people need to earn money 100% but why should I care about that if I was isolated on a train only then to have my space taken over by that person? Who maybe ill. When the bus or train leaves first stop and if far from full there must be some point when people are getting on knowing they are too close and IMO thats wrong.

We can say the Government put them in that position but that then is not almost carte blanche to just do what you like. WE all have our lives to lead but the simple fact of me walking over to you and being within 1 feet of you could cost you or a family member their life but I need to earn £200 or I am chucked out my flat, are you ok with that?

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We are being imprisoned by our own fear of death. I can’t see how we get out of this.

I was in a long queue at Tesco today. It was so sad to see everyone waiting in line. Many with masks on. Many holding scarves to their faces. Many looking at each other warily. I had time in the line to reflect on what I was part of and I didn’t like it.

The risks are so small for the vast majority of the population. They always have been. But we have become institutionalised to them now. Like a prisoner or soldier who finds it hard to adjust to civvy street.

I absolutely understand people’s wariness btw.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Berwickhibby

when I lived and worked in Germany we paid insurance to different companies my krankenkasse was Barma if my memory is correct, I did not think the Government funded the health system like we do with NHS ....but admittedly that was 30 years plus ago.

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Like in the UK the health system in Germany is paid for by money deducted from people's pay. It's the government however that approves and thus enables the system. It's compulsory to pay contributions set in law with a few exceptions.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hibby Bairn

We are being imprisoned by our own fear of death. I can’t see how we get out of this.

I was in a long queue at Tesco today. It was so sad to see everyone waiting in line. Many with masks on. Many holding scarves to their faces. Many looking at each other warily. I had time in the line to reflect on what I was part of and I didn’t like it.

The risks are so small for the vast majority of the population. They always have been. But we have become institutionalised to them now. Like a prisoner or soldier who finds it hard to adjust to civvy street.

I absolutely understand people’s wariness btw.

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The alternate view woukd be its so amazing to see the population taking seriously the health of there elders and trying to protect them (and in sure some outwith this group)

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

Quote:

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Originally Posted by marinello59

Clapping whilst plans are already being put in place to freeze their wages.

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It's obviously what the electorate want, otherwise they wouldn't have overwhelmingly voted for him. :dunno:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hibby Bairn

We are being imprisoned by our own fear of death. I can’t see how we get out of this.

I was in a long queue at Tesco today. It was so sad to see everyone waiting in line. Many with masks on. Many holding scarves to their faces. Many looking at each other warily. I had time in the line to reflect on what I was part of and I didn’t like it.

The risks are so small for the vast majority of the population. They always have been. But we have become institutionalised to them now. Like a prisoner or soldier who finds it hard to adjust to civvy street.

I absolutely understand people’s wariness btw.

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Although i have written that I myself am not living in fear I guess many are out there are. I cannot just walk up to a person just because I am not bothered by it even if they are ill, it is the other person you need to take into consideration who may well feel totally different. You do look at the queue at shop and wonder how the hell can a restaurant or pub possibly operate under these conditions? There are a few if you like unessential business that could run quite well with the 2m gap, a car showroom for instance. I agree the risks are small but not everyone will think that way I would imagine.