Any tips yet?
When do the bookies start offering extended places? (6/7/8 places)
Printable View
Any tips yet?
When do the bookies start offering extended places? (6/7/8 places)
Finding it tough to look beyond last year's winner even though it's went up a fair amount in the weights.
Last time I backed the winner of the National I had a full head of hair!!
Fortescue at a massive price ew(if he’s in the mood).👍
I've had a bet every year since about 1985 and I still haven't found a winner!Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibs1972
I've always done fairly well in the National and can recall all the winners I've backed:
1995 - Royal Athlete (£1 Ew placed by my grandad)
2005 - Headgehunter
2010 - Don't Push It
2012 - Neptune Collonges
2014 - Pinau Du Re
2015 - Many Clouds
2017 - One For Arthur
I must be the only person in Britain who didn't back Tiger Roll in either of his wins. I also always backed Sam Waley Cohen at Aintree and last year decided he had no chance!!
I think Corach Rambler is a fair favourite. The jump in weight he carried between his 2022 and 2023 Utilita wins at Cheltenham suggests he has improved a lot. Noble Yeats has had a good season and ran exactly as I expected in both the Cotswold Chase and the Gold Cup. He was never winning either but stayed on and passed a lot of tired horses. He's a pure stayer and will be in the mix. At a big price I quite like Gabby's Cross.
Ah yes, forgot about my token quid on Tiger Roll. By the time my wife's had her annual 7 horses there's not much dosh left for me although to be fair she's had Little Polveir, Bobbyjo, Royal Athlete, Numbersixvalverde, Many Clouds and Tiger Roll so not a bad record :greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
Copied this from racing post really good analysis of previous winners
Age
After Pineau De Re became the fifth veteran in a row to win the race in 2014, the Grand National has been dominated by horses who are aged either eight or nine, with six of the last seven winners falling in that category. That bodes well for Corach Rambler, Le Milos, Longhouse Poet and Our Power, as well as last year's hero Noble Yeats, who became the first seven-year-old to land the race since before the Second World War.
Bogskar in 1940 had been the last horse to score at seven before Noble Yeats' 50-1 success last season, offering some small hope to the Willie Mullins-trained pair of Gaillard Du Mesnil and Mr Incredible if they do turn up at Aintree.
Weight
Ted Walsh was unimpressed with the weight allocated to Any Second Now, who has finished third and second in the last two runnings, which is hardly surprising given that no winner this century has carried more than 11st 9lb to victory. Ted Walsh's topweight is off 11st 12lb while it has to be a concern for Noble Yeats and Galvin, who are shouldering just 1lb less.
At the other end of the scale, not since Bobbyjo struck in 1999 has a winner carried less than 10st 3lb, which raises potential question marks over Hill Sixteen, Gabbys Cross, Recite A Prayer, Eva's Oscar and Our Power as well as the rest below them were they to get into the race.
Form
Seven of the last nine winners had already got their head in front in the season of their Aintree victory, which is not a good sign for Mr Incredible, Vanillier, Lifetime Ambition, Royal Pagaille, Roi Mage, The Big Breakaway, The Shunter and Mister Coffey.
Three of the last five winners came into Aintree off the back of a win which could bode well for Corach Rambler, Delta Work, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Any Second Now, Longhouse Poet, Our Power, Ain't That A Shame and Coko Beach.
Experience
Nine of the last 12 winners had never run around the Grand National track including the winners of the last two runnings, so a lack of experience over Aintree's famous fences is not necessarily a negative for Corach Rambler, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Mr Incredible, Le Milos, Our Power and plenty more further down the betting.
Five of the last ten winners had won over the National fences or recorded a top-six finish in the Coral Gold Cup, Scottish or Irish Nationals. That is another boost for Le Milos and Corach Rambler, who were first and fourth in Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup in November.
Festival form
Cheltenham Festival form has to be respected given that half of the last ten winners have ran at the festival on their final start before triumphing in the National. Noble Yeats was ninth in the Ultima Handicap Chase en route to success at Aintree, which bodes well for this year's winner Corach Rambler.
Delta Work is attempting to emulate Tiger Roll by following up his win in the Cross Country with victory in the National, something his former stablemate managed in 2018 and 2019 for Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown House Stud.
Delta Work beat fellow National entry Galvin last time and is one of three horses who could attempt to follow up a Cheltenham Festival win.
Many Clouds was sixth behind Coneygree in the 2015 Gold Cup before winning the National on his next start which is encouraging for Noble Yeats, who stayed on for fourth in last month's Gold Cup.
Pineau De Re was third in the Pertemps Final before successfully going back over the larger obstacles at Aintree in 2014, demonstrating that a prep run over hurdles can work. Lifetime Ambition was third in a Thurles hurdle race on the Saturday of Cheltenham Festival week with Jessica Harrington's eight-year-old the shortest-priced contender to have gone down that route at 33-1.
Ballabriggs won his National a year after landing the 2010 Kim Muir, with Mr Incredible (third), Dunboyne (fourth) and Defi Bleu (fifth) potentially representing that race in Merseyside on April 15. The other festival chase restricted to amateur riders; the National Hunt Chase, was won by Gaillard Du Mesnil.
That race has produced the dual National winner Tiger Roll as well as Teaforthree, Cause Of Causes and Rathvinden, who all went on to be placed in a future Grand National having won the National Hunt Chase. Galvin won the first race to be staged over the reduced trip of 3m6f in 2021, so it is perhaps not a trend to look out for quite so much nowadays with the shorter distance.
Hedgehunter and Neptune Collognes placed in Gold Cups as well as winning the National and even Rule The World, one of the less heralded winners in recent years (2016), finished second to The New One in a Grade 1 novice hurdle at the 2013 festival.
Festival form is clearly a good angle and it will be fascinating to see how those who ran at Cheltenham perform at Aintree this year, given that there is an extra week between the two major spring meetings due to the positioning of Easter in the calendar.
Verdict
Corach Rambler arrives off the back of winning the Ultima Handicap Chase for the second year in a row, the same race that Noble Yeats ran in before landing last year's National. Lucinda Russell knows what it takes to win the race, having been successful in 2017 with One For Arthur, and her nine-year-old is the right sort of age as well as being perfectly weighted at 10st 5lb. A lack of experience over Aintree's National fences is not a negative for the ante-post market leader and favourites have an okay record considering the field size and usual in-running drama to navigate, with six favourites or joint-favourites obliging since 1996.
This is my shortlist...
100% backing:
Le Milos
Also a possible:
Delta Work
Gaillard Du Mesnil
Possible each way chance:
Eva's Oskar
Mister Coffey
Love Delta Work so will be backing him, decent can get him at 10s just now
Having now had a closer look I think the weight might hinder Noble Yeats (probably still get placed), I'm beginning to side with Le Milos now too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Speedy
Delays caused by animal rights protesters
#26 Corach Rambler for me, my daughter was born on the 26th so it was a carefully selected pick. I also picked carefully selected. :greengrin
Koko beach and Le Milos too.
How many can you get away with picking for 1 race? :greengrin
I've got 10 bets placed 🤣 albeit its for the wife, kids and my mother as well. Surely a winner in there!?Quote:
Originally Posted by danhibees1875
didn't watch it and didn't even have an EW bet on it
well done :saltireflag though
Corach Rambler won easy. Looked the winner from way, way out.
Lucinda Russell had played the game with this one. 10st 5lbs for a horse that has won the Ultima 2 years on the trot.
Good job she was 13 days late and born on the 26th. :greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by danhibees1875
Won like a good thing
Took a while for that 6th place to come through, Born By The Sea baby :thumbsup:
Hadn't noticed him, had a £1 each way at 80/1. Seems to have returned £17!Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Grieves
three horses died at Aintree today
Stats say 200 race horses die every year in UK. 200 to many.
Dundee united director that owned the horse that died after falling at the 1st fence is blaming the protesters who delayed the start
Hill Sixteen owner slams Grand National protestors who delayed race after his horse died (msn.com)
I'm not sure what he actually is quoted to have said is reflected well in the headline (he doesn't slam them), and your interpretation then takes it a step further (he doesn't seem to blame them).Quote:
Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875
The quote from the article:
Asked if the animal rights protestors actions had affected the horses, Fyffe said: “Possibly. It didn’t help with all the protestors and the horses walking about for a lengthy time and then going back to the stables and then coming back here. It wasn’t good for the horses whatsoever. It’s happened and it’s not a good thing.”
The NH fraternity are a special bunch. Wearing hats and tweeds, you get the feeling that normal society doesn't touch them much really. They claim to love horses but what happens to the ones who don't come up to snuff?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/65296693
Were the protestors 'ignorant' or justified? If holding up the race contributed to heightened anxiety at the start line I can see his point but I'm not an expert on racehorses.
The winning trainer was certainly at pains to stress how much her horse loves the jumps.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/65309466
Thought-provoking interview.
It's an interesting piece but I can't help thinking those involved in racing would be best served by just shutting up for a few days.Quote:
Originally Posted by He's here!
They aren't going to win the hearts and minds of the likes of Animal Aid or Animal Rising. Their only position is an outright ban, there is no compromise to be found. Quite what they envisage as the happy ending for the horse in such a scenario is anyone's guess, their imagery seems to show hundreds of horses living freely on rolling pastures. Quite how domesticated animals that have been bred for human use for centuries adapt to that might take a bit more explaining. Racing has a cordial relationship with the likes of World Horse Welfare and the RSPCA who each take a pragmatic approach of nominal opposition to racing but with an acceptance it will continue so it's best to work together to make improvements. Both organisations conduct reviews after the Aintree Festival along with the BHA every year and their recommendations have seen great improvements in recent years to both the Grand National and racing in general. Year on year the sport gets safer for the horse and such pragmatism and a willingness to engage on both sides is to thank for that.
In time an approach of informing the wider public about racing and racehorse welfare is a sound one but right now emotions are high, the optics aren't good and there is a bandwagon to be jumped on. In a month or 2 it will be something else and there will likely be more willingness to listen to another side of the story.
Racing is ultimately a livestock industry. For the next few weeks it's going to be judged to a higher standard than other such industries with many riled up and blind to their own hypocrisies. No charm offensive is going to work in the short term.