Hibernian FC Cup Final Record - beware contains depressing analytics

Being of an analytical mindset, thought I would look at our cup final trends. It's depressing, but as is often stated "Past performance is no guarantee of future results".

Since our cup final win in 1973 we lose three cups finals that we play, winning the 4th. Sad to say, but we may have to have another two days like yesterday before we win the next!!! Also, we win a Scottish Cup once in every century!!! And we win a League Cup once after every two losses!!!

Both competitions

1973 LC Win
1975 LC Loss
1979 SC Loss
1986 LC Loss
1991 LC Win
1994 LC Loss
2001 SC Loss
2004 LC Loss
2007 LC Win
2012 SC Loss
2013 SC Loss
2016 LC Loss
2016 SC Win
2021 SC Loss

It's similarly depressing when you look at our record in each cup.

Scottish Cup, 15 finals, 3 wins, 12 losses including 10 in a row. We win a Scottish Cup once in every century!!! For our record to be symmetrical, we'll win the next final we're at!
League Cup, 10 finals, 3 wins, 7 losses. We win a League Cup once after every two losses!!!

Scottish Cup

1887 SC Win
1896 SC Loss
1902 SC Win
1914 SC Loss
1923 SC Loss
1924 SC Loss
1947 SC Loss
1958 SC Loss
1972 SC Loss
1979 SC Loss
2001 SC Loss
2012 SC Loss
2013 SC Loss
2016 SC Win
2021 SC Loss

League Cup

1951 LC Loss
1969 LC Loss
1973 LC Win
1975 LC Loss
1986 LC Loss
1991 LC Win
1994 LC Loss
2004 LC Loss
2007 LC Win
2016 LC Loss

I’m guessing a career with The Samaritans isn’t in your immediate future...

We are really made to suffer as fans of this club!

And even more depressing to think St Johnstone have won 3 Cups in 7 years to my record of 3 in 40 years of supporting Hibs.

It also highlights how poor both Edinburgh teams have been with 3 trophies each in 40 years. Why, with the resources and support is our respective records so terrible.

So the only way is up?

We have been in 15 Scottish cup finals winning 3. A 20% win rate, pretty shocking.

In contrast Hearts and Aberdeen have both beeen in 16 Scottish cup finals winning 8 and 7 respectively. About a 50% win rate which you would kind of expect, all things being equal.

Can’t really explain our win rate except to say that’s sport and luck. Kilmarnock have won 3 cup finals in only 5 attempts ffs.

So going by those stats we have to endure another 2 losses before we win again. 😒

We will be back at hampden next season for another rollercoaster ride.

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Originally Posted by hibsbollah

I’m guessing a career with The Samaritans isn’t in your immediate future...

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To be honest, I researched the "lose three cup finals before winning the next" trend whilst depressed on the bus after the League Cup final loss to Ross County. It was maybe why I was so confident that we would beat The Rangers, though not being a betting man I didn't place any bets on it. I'm pretty sure I posted something about it on here just after one of the cup finals in 2016. I also had this trend in the back of my mind on the lead up to yesterday, but thought that surely every mathematical sequence can be broken at some point.

The joys of being a Hibs fan :rolleyes:

You have missed out the Dryburgh Cup We won that twice in a couple of years


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That is painful.

Because I was seduced by the dark side between the ages of 7 and 15 I don't count those years in my personal tale of cup woe. But here's my sad litany of Hibs cup finals since the first one I attended in 1979.

1979 SC ....... Hibs 2 Rangers 3 .... 2nd replay.

1985 LC ....... Hibs 0 Aberdeen 3

1991 LC ....... HIBS 2 DUNFERMLINE 0

1993 LC ....... Hibs 1 Rangers 2

2001 SC ....... Hibs 0 Celtic 3

2004 LC ....... Hibs 0 Livingston 2

2007 LC ....... HIBS 5 KILMARNOCK 1

2012 SC ........Hibs 1 Hearts 5

2013 SC ....... Hibs 0 Celtic 3

2016 LC ....... Hibs 1 Ross County 2

2016 SC ....... HIBS 3 RANGERS 2

2021 SC ....... Hibs 0 St Johnstone 1

12 finals in 40 years with 3 wins and 9 defeats and what makes it worse is that only 4 of those 9 defeats were against the Ugly Sisters, though to be fair the 1985 final was against a very good Aberdeen side who would almost certainly wipe the floor with anything the current Scottish league has to offer.

That's why it's so bloody hard to follow this club. Can there be a club anywhere that takes it's fans to the brink so often and then lets them down? Most fans in the world either follow sides who even if they lose a final will follow it up with success the following season or clubs who might make a final once every 20 years or who never expect to make a final. Hibs are part of a small band of clubs who are regular participants in finals but who are singularly incapable of winning them ... chuck in the fact that for a club of our size we consistently under perform in the league, this season notwithstanding, 3 relegations in that timeand F knows how many semi final disappointments and it's a sodding hard shift being a Hibby at times :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by NAE NOOKIE

Because I was seduced by the dark side between the ages of 7 and 15 I don't count those years in my personal tale of cup woe. But here's my sad litany of Hibs cup finals since the first one I attended in 1979.

1979 SC ....... Hibs 2 Rangers 3 .... 2nd replay.

1985 LC ....... Hibs 0 Aberdeen 3

1991 LC ....... HIBS 2 DUNFERMLINE 0

1993 LC ....... Hibs 1 Rangers 2

2001 SC ....... Hibs 0 Celtic 3

2004 LC ....... Hibs 0 Livingston 2

2007 LC ....... HIBS 5 KILMARNOCK 1

2012 SC ........Hibs 1 Hearts 5

2013 SC ....... Hibs 0 Celtic 3

2016 LC ....... Hibs 1 Ross County 2

2016 SC ....... HIBS 3 RANGERS 2

2021 SC ....... Hibs 0 St Johnstone 1

12 finals in 40 years with 3 wins and 9 defeats and what makes it worse is that only 4 of those 9 defeats were against the Ugly Sisters, though to be fair the 1985 final was against a very good Aberdeen side who would almost certainly wipe the floor with anything the current Scottish league has to offer.

That's why it's so bloody hard to follow this club. Can there be a club anywhere that takes it's fans to the brink so often and then lets them down? Most fans in the world either follow sides who even if they lose a final will follow it up with success the following season or clubs who might make a final once every 20 years or who never expect to make a final. Hibs are part of a small band of clubs who are regular participants in finals but who are singularly incapable of winning them ... chuck in the fact that for a club of our size we consistently under perform in the league, this season notwithstanding, and F knows how many semi final disappointments and it's a sodding hard shift being a Hibby at times :rolleyes:

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Mine isn't much better, from 2001 and on. 2 wins from 8 finals is brutal, especially because 3 of those (RC, Livi and STJ) were very winnable. Rough as ****.

Thing is, cups are what its all about. I don't support Hibs for them to win every week, but in 20 years supporting, I've seen as many cup wins as a St Johnstone fan would've this season. Thats terrible no matter how you dress it up.

Just reflects where Hibs lie in the order of Scottish Football. Good enough to progress through to final stages of Cups but not enough money to convert into success. Has always been and unless something fundamentally shifts, will always be the case.

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Originally Posted by Onion

Just reflects where Hibs lie in the order of Scottish Football. Good enough to progress through to final stages of Cups but not enough money to convert into success. Has always been and unless something fundamentally shifts, will always be the case.

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Money didn't cost us the match yesterday. Or Ross County one.

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Originally Posted by hibsbollah

I’m guessing a career with The Samaritans isn’t in your immediate future...

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Thank you for a smile there. :-)

Compare how much we get to Hampden compared to other clubs outwith the old firm.

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Originally Posted by Unseen work

Compare how much we get to Hampden compared to other clubs outwith the old firm.

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Our cup record would be great, if we were a plucky little side who always lost to the big boys. Its the fact we're one of the bigger boys who loses to the plucky underdogs that ruins it.

If Hibs were your girlfriend or boyfriend, you wouldn't put up with that sort of treatment. Mad what club loyalty means you tolerate.

Makes you wonder how to address it, there must be something inherently as a club we are doing (or not doing) that makes our win record in finals/semis so dire?

For that record to be sustained over such a long period of time it can't just come down to random chance. The players change every couple of years so what is it?

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Originally Posted by MWHIBBIES

Mine isn't much better, from 2001 and on. 2 wins from 8 finals is brutal, especially because 3 of those (RC, Livi and STJ) were very winnable. Rough as ****.

Thing is, cups are what its all about. I don't support Hibs for them to win every week, but in 20 years supporting, I've seen as many cup wins as a St Johnstone fan would've this season. Thats terrible no matter how you dress it up.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by MWHIBBIES

Our cup record would be great, if we were a plucky little side who always lost to the big boys. Its the fact we're one of the bigger boys who loses to the plucky underdogs that ruins it.

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Originally Posted by Glory Lurker

If Hibs were your girlfriend or boyfriend, you wouldn't put up with that sort of treatment. Mad what club loyalty means you tolerate.

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This, this and this.

Though with number 3 it has to be said some folk are into whips & chains and enjoy a good spanking .... Hibs are the dominatrix of European football ... time for a badge change :greengrin

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Originally Posted by MWHIBBIES

Money didn't cost us the match yesterday. Or Ross County one.

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Or the game against ferranti thistle in 2004

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Originally Posted by Ronniekirk

You have missed out the Dryburgh Cup We won that twice in a couple of years


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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You're right.I intentionally didn't include any invitational tournament.I only included the top two Scottish Cups.

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Originally Posted by Gmack7

Or the game against ferranti thistle in 2004

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Thats not really true. Livi had a team they couldn’t afford. Some top quality players in that side. They went into admin just before the final, got rid of a few token bodies but all their big players survived the chop.

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Originally Posted by Hibee Mac

Makes you wonder how to address it, there must be something inherently as a club we are doing (or not doing) that makes our win record in finals/semis so dire?

For that record to be sustained over such a long period of time it can't just come down to random chance. The players change every couple of years so what is it?

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It's us!!!
Us supporters are the only constants.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Glory Lurker

If Hibs were your girlfriend or boyfriend, you wouldn't put up with that sort of treatment. Mad what club loyalty means you tolerate.

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So true :hilarious

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Originally Posted by Gmack7

Or the game against ferranti thistle in 2004

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Na, that was only money that time. They way outspent us then,

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Glory Lurker

If Hibs were your girlfriend or boyfriend, you wouldn't put up with that sort of treatment. Mad what club loyalty means you tolerate.

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It's a good comparison: at times being a Hibs fan feels like an abusive relationship. You keep giving them one more chance, but they never change.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NAE NOOKIE

Because I was seduced by the dark side between the ages of 7 and 15 I don't count those years in my personal tale of cup woe. But here's my sad litany of Hibs cup finals since the first one I attended in 1979.

1979 SC ....... Hibs 2 Rangers 3 .... 2nd replay.

1985 LC ....... Hibs 0 Aberdeen 3

1991 LC ....... HIBS 2 DUNFERMLINE 0

1993 LC ....... Hibs 1 Rangers 2

2001 SC ....... Hibs 0 Celtic 3

2004 LC ....... Hibs 0 Livingston 2

2007 LC ....... HIBS 5 KILMARNOCK 1

2012 SC ........Hibs 1 Hearts 5

2013 SC ....... Hibs 0 Celtic 3

2016 LC ....... Hibs 1 Ross County 2

2016 SC ....... HIBS 3 RANGERS 2

2021 SC ....... Hibs 0 St Johnstone 1

12 finals in 40 years with 3 wins and 9 defeats and what makes it worse is that only 4 of those 9 defeats were against the Ugly Sisters, though to be fair the 1985 final was against a very good Aberdeen side who would almost certainly wipe the floor with anything the current Scottish league has to offer.

That's why it's so bloody hard to follow this club. Can there be a club anywhere that takes it's fans to the brink so often and then lets them down? Most fans in the world either follow sides who even if they lose a final will follow it up with success the following season or clubs who might make a final once every 20 years or who never expect to make a final. Hibs are part of a small band of clubs who are regular participants in finals but who are singularly incapable of winning them ... chuck in the fact that for a club of our size we consistently under perform in the league, this season notwithstanding, 3 relegations in that timeand F knows how many semi final disappointments and it's a sodding hard shift being a Hibby at times :rolleyes:

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For me the 2 worst were 2012 (goes without saying) and 2004 when we got beat by Livvie. We beat both of the OF that year and still managed to **** it up in the final.

Plenty worse teams out there that never win anything, try supporting them if you want.

At least we do manage to win things and sometimes are great to watch.

I'm not sure many fans get the feeling we had on 21st May 2016 either, it was completely unique and I wouldn't trade it for anything.

I don't enjoy losing but I understand where we are in the bigger picture of football.