European Qualification: is there a straight-up, no-nonsense answer yet?

[Dashing Bob S]

Assuming Aberdeen don't lift the cup, do we have a Europa League play-off, which, if we win, means we are in the Europa League group stages, and if we lose, we drop into the Conference League group stages?

Asking for a friend...

[Paul1642]

Assuming Aberdeen don't lift the cup, do we have a Europa League play-off, which, if we win, means we are in the Europa League group stages, and if we lose, we drop into the Conference League group stages?

Asking for a friend...

Yes. Simple as this.

[JohnM1875]

Assuming Aberdeen don't lift the cup, do we have a Europa League play-off, which, if we win, means we are in the Europa League group stages, and if we lose, we drop into the Conference League group stages?

Asking for a friend...

Yup.

We'll be unseeded for the Europa League play-off game. If we lose and drop into the Conference League we'll be in pot six and play one team from each pot (including pot 6) for six games in the group stage.

[Dashing Bob S]

Thank you fine men of Hibernia. After tomorrow we can hopefully debate who we may get in this play-off.

[Bostonhibby]

Thank you fine men of Hibernia. After tomorrow we can hopefully debate who we may get in this play-off.Won't be Hearts, hope that helps narrow it down a bit.

Sent from my SM-A750FN using Tapatalk

[hibsbollah]

And do we have dates for the europa league playoff?

[JohnM1875]

And do we have dates for the europa league playoff?

We do. Play-offs: 21 & 28 August 2025

[Ryan91]

And do we have dates for the europa league playoff?

Going by Wikipedia - Draw is 4th August, with first leg (likely the Home leg) on 21st August, with the return the following week on 28th August

[Colr]

And what if Aberdeen win the Scottish Cup?

[Billy Whizz]

And what if Aberdeen win the Scottish Cup?

We go in at the 2nd Qualifying round
Draw on 18th June and games played on 24th and 31st July

[hibsbollah]

Muchos thankos

[Ribs1875]

Europa league

Play-off round draw: 4 August 2025
1st leg: 21 August 2025
2nd round: 28 August 2025

[Ryan91]

And what if Aberdeen win the Scottish Cup?

We'd enter Europa League 2nd Qualifying round. LWW, WLW or WWL over 3 qualifying ties would see us get Conference league phase, 3 wins and it would Europa League league phase.

[Radge70]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c623p9qmlveo

Everything is explained in there although you do have to deduce a fair bit as it's not as explicit as it could be! For example it's the second qualifying round of the Europa that we go into if Aberdeen win the cup. If they don't then Dundee Utd go into the second qualifying round of the europa, which incidently means you need to win that then the 3rd qualifying rohnd then the play-offs in order to get into the group stage (of the Europa)

[Eyrie]

And what if Aberdeen win the Scottish Cup?

I'll be watching for low flying pigs if that happens.

[scm70nyd1973]

Won't be Hearts, hope that helps narrow it down a bit.

Sent from my SM-A750FN using Tapatalk

When you tell them this - give it to them gently - hiring a plane for a trip over Edinburgh with a trailing flag should suffice 🫢🤭

[Keith_M]

When you tell them this - give it to them gently - hiring a plane for a trip over Edinburgh with a trailing flag should suffice 🫢🤭


I've got one ready, it says...


Hearts are going to Seton Sands, Hibs are going to Europe

[Eyrie]

I prefer

Hearts going to Slateford
They're going to Barnton
They're going to East Craigs too
So What?

[Bostonhibby]

When you tell them this - give it to them gently - hiring a plane for a trip over Edinburgh with a trailing flag should suffice 🫢[emoji2960][emoji23]



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[Lendo]

So…….what happens now?

[LewysGot2]

So…….what happens now?

We play in Q2 on July 24

[ruthven_raiders]

So…….what happens now?

Enter one round earlier and no fall back of conference football at the next qualifying round if we get there

[AdidasHibernian]

I'll be watching for low flying pigs if that happens.

This aged well

[lugz]

Assuming Aberdeen don't lift the cup, do we have a Europa League play-off, which, if we win, means we are in the Europa League group stages, and if we lose, we drop into the Conference League group stages?

Asking for a friend...

You know what they say about assuming......

[scoopyboy]

Enter one round earlier and no fall back of conference football at the next qualifying round if we get there

Wrong, if we get beat we go into conference qualifiers

[LaMotta]

Here is our route now:

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:s teep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0a11d29 2-e259-4380-9253-99bdf05ed20c_3000x2250.jpeg

[CB_NO3]

We play in Q2 on July 14

For Europa or Conference? Q2 for Europa looks like July 24 / July 31

https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/news/0296-1d21e9c10031-f10e483164b3-1000--2025-26-europa-league-format-dates-draws-final/

[hibee_girl]

Ah well, it just makes the European adventure that bit more exciting

[Big_Franck]

Enter one round earlier and no fall back of conference football at the next qualifying round if we get there

If we advance in the Europa League qualifiers, is there a fall back of dropping into the Conference qualifiers at any stage at all?

[ruthven_raiders]

Wrong, if we get beat we go into conference play offs

So another chance of league euro football?

[danhibees1875]

Enter one round earlier and no fall back of conference football at the next qualifying round if we get there

2 rounds earlier, and there is fall back.

Otherwise, correct. :greengrin

[hibby6270]

So…….what happens now?

2nd qualifying round of Europa League. Then 3rd qual. Then Play off tie IF we want to be in Europa League group stage.
What happens if we get beat in any of these potential ties - I’ve no idea - at what stage we could drop into Conference League - if at all.

[LewysGot2]

For Europa or Conference? Q2 for Europa looks like July 24 / July 31

https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/news/0296-1d21e9c10031-f10e483164b3-1000--2025-26-europa-league-format-dates-draws-final/

Typo - fat fingers 👉 🤣

[overdrive]

Enter one round earlier and no fall back of conference football at the next qualifying round if we get there

Not correct. QR2. Unseeded. Lose that we are unseeded in the Conference League qualifiers too

[Nicho87]

Why is Scotland set up like this

Win 5 cup games of football, get the better euro spot

Over 38 games counts for **** all

Only Scotland

[scoopyboy]

So another chance of league euro football?

Aye but it won’t be easy. Today was the big opportunity

[Ryan91]

2nd qualifying round of Europa League. Then 3rd qual. Then Play off tie IF we want to be in Europa League group stage.
What happens if we get beat in any of these potential ties - I’ve no idea - at what stage we could drop into Conference League - if at all.

Beat in ELQ2 drop to Conf Q3 - Beat in ELQ3 drop to Conf Play Off - Beat in EL Play Off drop to Conf League Phase

To make League phase of Conf we have to go LWW, WLW or WWL in the 3 qualifying ties.

We'll likely be unseeded throughout.

[ruthven_raiders]

Why is Scotland set up like this

Win 5 cup games of football, get the better euro spot

Over 38 games counts for **** all

Only Scotland

Is it not Uefa that want cup winners to get a better position?

[Ryan91]

Why is Scotland set up like this

Win 5 cup games of football, get the better euro spot

Over 38 games counts for **** all

Only Scotland

Scotland not the only ones, a number of other nations also offer better European spot to cup winners.

[green day]

Is it not Uefa that want cup winners to get a better position?

Yes

[Nicho87]

Scotland not the only ones, a number of other nations also offer better European spot to cup winners.

It’s sour grapes obviously but it seems absolutely mad

[Lago]

As a minimum, how many European games could Hibs have?

[H18 SFR]

Why is Scotland set up like this

Win 5 cup games of football, get the better euro spot

Over 38 games counts for **** all

Only Scotland

It is not Scottish football at all. It is a UEFA directive in response to FA’s like England allowing their national cup to be devalued.

[ruthven_raiders]

Seems to be confusion on qualification, so am I right we are only in Europa league qualifying with no fall back into conference qualifying?

[lugz]

As a minimum, how many European games could Hibs have?

4 home and away europa qualifier then same conference league

[H18 SFR]

As a minimum, how many European games could Hibs have?

4

[TheHibernator]

The last 2 times we’ve finished 3rd we’ve lost out on Europe due to the Scottish cup, first st Johnstone now Aberdeen.

**** Celtic and everyone associated with them

[Lago]

4 home and away europa qualifier then same conference league
Thanks for that, simplified things 👍

[Lago]

4
Thanks

[LaMotta]

Here is our route now:

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:s teep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0a11d29 2-e259-4380-9253-99bdf05ed20c_3000x2250.jpeg


Seems to be confusion on qualification, so am I right we are only in Europa league qualifying with no fall back into conference qualifying?

No - see above.

Weve got several chances of getting into both Europa and Conference league groups. Will be very hard though.

Win 2 Europa ties - we then get into Europa playoff (where we would have been if Celtic had won the cup) and are then guaranteed at least conference league group stage if we lose, and Europa League group if we win.

Lose either of first two Europa League rounds, then we have to win all our conference league ties ( either 2 or 3 depending on which round we start at) to get into the conference group.

[Hibees1973]

Can forget about the league stage football in the Europa League and Conference League up until Christmas. Would only give us a 5% of getting there.

Would have to win 3 two legged ties to qualify for the Europa League stage (8 league games up to Christmas). If we lose one on the Europa League two legged ties we fall into the Conference League qualifying stages and possibly another 2 legged ties to quaiify for the Conference League phase (6 league games up to Christmas).

We will come across a biggie at one point in any scenario.

Whatever way you look at it Aberdeen are the big winners today.

D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R

[Posh Swanny]

Can forget about the league stage football in the Europa League and Conference League up until Christmas. Would only give us a 5% of getting there.

Would have to win 3 two legged ties to qualify for the Europa League stage (8 league games up to Christmas). If we lose one on the Europa League two legged ties we fall into the Conference League qualifying stages and possibly another 2 legged ties to quaiify for the Conference League phase (6 league games up to Christmas).

We will come across a biggie at one point in any scenario.

Whatever way you look at it Aberdeen are the big winners today.

D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R

We only need to win two ties to reach groups. 5% is probably about right though based on who we'll likely meet in those ties, in either tournament.

[IFONLY]

I'll be watching for low flying pigs if that happens.
Look out peppa and family above your head.

[danhibees1875]

We only need to win two ties to reach groups. 5% is probably about right though based on who we'll likely meet in those ties, in either tournament.

Those ties are also made harder by the fact we can't throw as much money at the squad as we would have otherwise.

5% is probably generous.

[CentreForward]

Celtic really have failed us miserably! Reading all the scenarios on here you can see that unless we perform really well then this is a financial disaster for us and we’ve probably lost several million out of this. On the other hand if we somehow manage to get through to the Conference league group then we could actually make more than we originally thought as we would have had more games to get there and that should bring in more money . What this does do though is to have a big effect on our budget as we now won’t have any idea what sort of money we might be taking in and this is bound to effect our transfer activity. Not good news.

[Billy McKirdy]

How will we have three games? I don’t understand the format

[green day]

How will we have three games? I don’t understand the format
Picture further up explains the path

[overdrive]

How will we have three games? I don’t understand the format

Only guaranteed two games. But assuming we win. QR2, QR3, playoff. Drop to conference at every stage with a loss

[Hibs90]

Likely opponents in Europa Q2 as we will be unseeded:

Braga, Anderlecht, Utrecht, Trabzonspor/Basaksehir, Swiss 3rd place team or winner from Q1 (Shakhtar, Partizan, Legia, Cluj etc)


Potential opponents in Conf Q3, assuming no chance with the above:

Aris, Djuragrden, Molde, Osijek, CSKA Sofia, or winner from Q2

Still very difficult and then even if we get through that then the play-off tie is likely to be unseeded from what I gather so you could end up facing Newcastle, Lyon, Mainz, Lazio, Rayo Vallecano or EL drop outs from Q3.


Would imagine group stage football is pretty unrealistic.

[Pagan Hibernia]

The last 2 times we’ve finished 3rd we’ve lost out on Europe due to the Scottish cup, first st Johnstone now Aberdeen.

**** Celtic and everyone associated with them

To be fair we have only ourselves to blame for that one

[SaulGoodman]

Likely opponents in Europa Q:

Braga, Anderlecht, Utrecht, Trabzonspor/Basaksehir, Swiss 3rd place team or winner from Q1 (Shakhtar, Partizan, Legia, Cluj etc)


Potential opponents in Conf Q3, assuming no chance with the above:

Aris, Djuragrden, Molde, Osijek, CSKA Sofia, or winner from Q2

Still very difficult and then even if we get through that then the play-off tie is likely to be unseeded from what I gather so you could end up facing Newcastle, Lyon, Mainz, Lazio, Rayo Vallecano or EL drop outs from Q3.


Would imagine group stage football is pretty unrealistic.

We’ll pump all those diddy teams.

[SneakersO'Toole]

Those ties are also made harder by the fact we can't throw as much money at the squad as we would have otherwise.

5% is probably generous.

0.5% more like. Basically there is no chance.

Can anyone name an example where a non OF team qualified for group stage European football by going through multiple elimination rounds? I think Hearts might have done it circa 2004/5 but I can't think of anyone else.

It basically doesn't happen.

[LaMotta]

Picture further up explains the path

Will I post it for a third time just to make sure? :greengrin

[LaMotta]

The last 2 times we’ve finished 3rd we’ve lost out on Europe due to the Scottish cup, first st Johnstone now Aberdeen.

**** Celtic and everyone associated with them


To be fair we have only ourselves to blame for that one

St Johnstone didnt get group stage football though as coefficient points werent as high back then, so its only this time weve really missed out.

[Gordy M]

0.5% more like. Basically there is no chance.

Can anyone name an example where a non OF team qualified for group stage European football by going through multiple elimination rounds? I think Hearts might have done it circa 2004/5 but I can't think of anyone else.

It basically doesn't happen.

Its only 2 ties we have to win is it not? Plenty teams have won 2 ties.

[SneakersO'Toole]

Its only 2 ties we have to win is it not? Plenty teams have won 2 ties.

Okay name them?

[Gordy M]

Okay name them?

We won two ties the last time we were in Europe.

[SneakersO'Toole]

We won two ties the last time we were in Europe.

The original question posed specifically mentioned achieving group stage football. So no.

[Gordy M]

The original question posed specifically mentioned achieving group stage football. So no.

The conference league has only been on the go for a few years so the option of losing and dropping down wasnt there previously.

[Unseen work]

We won two ties the last time we were in Europe.

Entered at different stages of the competition.

Last time we beat the team that were like a junior side, we actually lose away from home too.

Now we’re entering at a higher level and then if we lose we still have to play teams like Luzern, Villa etc

[Gordy M]

Entered at different stages of the competition.

Last time we beat the team that were like a junior side, we actually lose away from home too.

Now we’re entering at a higher level and then if we lose we still have to play teams like Luzern, Villa etc

Yep, and we beat Luzern and just like other teams from specifically LOI have qualified by beating teams. Its not impossible. Depends on the draw.

[SneakersO'Toole]

The conference league has only been on the go for a few years so the option of losing and dropping down wasnt there previously.

What has that got to do with anything? The point is Scottish teams historically haven't won multiple elimination rounds to achieve European group stage football. They almost always get eliminated early.

I asked the question if anyone could remember any examples. Barring Hearts about 20 years ago, I don't think there are any.

Ergo, I would argue Hibs chances of doing so are slim to none.

[Gordy M]

What has that got to do with anything? The point is Scottish teams historically haven't won multiple elimination rounds to achieve European group stage football. They almost always get eliminated early.

I asked the question if anyone could remember any examples. Barring Hearts about 20 years ago, I don't think there are any.

Ergo, I would argue Hibs chances of doing so are slim to none.

So being able to lose a tie and not be eliminated from Europe is not any different!!?? Of course it is. It gives us a better chance than teams before 2021 when you lost you were out. Ergo.....there is a better chance than in years gone by.....which you are comparing too.

[Unseen work]

Yep, and we beat Luzern and just like other teams from specifically LOI have qualified by beating teams. Its not impossible. Depends on the draw.

It’s not the Luzerns that’s the problem, albeit they’re still really difficult teams

It’s the playoff round where well be unseeded again and can play EPL teams etc

[Gordy M]

It’s not the Luzerns that’s the problem, albeit they’re still really difficult teams

It’s the playoff round where well be unseeded again and can play EPL teams etc

Yeh i understand that and not being seeded will make it more difficult. But Larne got through, Pafos from Cyprus got through, Noah from Armenia got through? We might get lucky?

[Mcbizz1998]

It’s not the Luzerns that’s the problem, albeit they’re still really difficult teams

It’s the playoff round where well be unseeded again and can play EPL teams etc

But if we make the Europa play off round, lose and we drop directly into confernce?

[Paul1642]

But if we make the Europa play off round, lose and we drop directly into confernce?

Yep but only unseeded in the qualifiers and still some very tough games. I think the first game is the most important for us. Win that and we could be seeded for the second.

[Eyrie]

This aged well


Look out peppa and family above your head.

I can see them swooping around outside my window.

[Unseen work]

But if we make the Europa play off round, lose and we drop directly into confernce?

Is that right? I assumed we would still have to play a play off game in the conference league?

Likely against a top team

[Gordy M]

Is that right? I assumed we would still have to play a play off game in the conference league?

Likely against a top team

No, if we won the Q2 and Q3 we would end up where Aberdeen now are. If we win those 2 ties then we are guaranteed group stages im sure, as losers of the play off round.....i think.

[Trinity Hibee]

Is that right? I assumed we would still have to play a play off game in the conference league?

Likely against a top team

We won’t drop from EL play offs into conf groups.

[Gordy M]

We won’t drop from EL play offs into conf groups.

Why not, thats where Aberdeen are? If they lose the play off then drop into Conf groups?

[Unseen work]

Why not, thats where Aberdeen are? If they lose the play off then drop into Conf groups?

Because we’re now what Dundee United would have got

[BoomtownHibees]

We won’t drop from EL play offs into conf groups.

Yes we would if we lose the EL playoff

[B.H.F.C]

Is that right? I assumed we would still have to play a play off game in the conference league?

Likely against a top team

If Celtic had won today we’d have been in the Europa League playoff. Win Q2 and Q3 and we get to that stage, this being guaranteed group stage football in one competition. It’s not impossible but we’ll need a decent draw in Q2. Which is possible as a lot of big hitters not in at that stage.

[JohnM1875]

Because we’re now what Dundee United would have got

Nah. We absolutely would I’m sure.

All play-off tie losers drop into the Conference group nah?

[TimeForHeroes32]

If Celtic had won today we’d have been in the Europa League playoff. Win Q2 and Q3 and we get to that stage, this being guaranteed group stage football in one competition. It’s not impossible but we’ll need a decent draw in Q2. Which is possible as a lot of big hitters not in at that stage.

Not impossible but will need to play a team like Braga, Leiga Warsaw, shakhtar donesk in Q2. Even worse team could get right now is Lugano in Switzerland which won’t be easy. Need very favourable draws. Then if we lose to them in Q2, conference league doesn’t look much better with being unseeded with likes of Astana, Sparta Prague and Maccabi Haifa going to be seeded in Q3

Best way to put this Maeda and McGregor has ruined any chance we had of qualifying for group stage football

[JimBHibees]

0.5% more like. Basically there is no chance.

Can anyone name an example where a non OF team qualified for group stage European football by going through multiple elimination rounds? I think Hearts might have done it circa 2004/5 but I can't think of anyone else.

It basically doesn't happen.

Definitely more than no chance that is for sure

[Chorley Hibee]

Not impossible but will need to play a team like Braga, Leiga Warsaw, shakhtar donesk in Q2. Even worse team could get right now is Lugano in Switzerland which won’t be easy. Need very favourable draws. Then if we lose to them in Q2, conference league doesn’t look much better with being unseeded with likes of Astana, Sparta Prague and Maccabi Haifa going to be seeded in Q3

Best way to put this Maeda and McGregor has ruined any chance we had of qualifying for group stage football

Some of the sides you mention have to play in Q1 first of all.

The graphic shown is only a projection based upon coefficient points.

The hope is that some of those sides you mention get eliminated in Q1, potentially offering us a kinder draw.

[Chorley Hibee]

Yeh i understand that and not being seeded will make it more difficult. But Larne got through, Pafos from Cyprus got through, Noah from Armenia got through? We might get lucky?

They got through the Champions path, which offers league winners much kinder draws once they drop out of the Champions League qualifiers.

It's why they had a play-off with Lincoln Red Imps to secure group stage conference league, whilst we get a play-off with Aston Villa.

We wouldn't be in that side of the draw.

[B.H.F.C]

Not impossible but will need to play a team like Braga, Leiga Warsaw, shakhtar donesk in Q2. Even worse team could get right now is Lugano in Switzerland which won’t be easy. Need very favourable draws. Then if we lose to them in Q2, conference league doesn’t look much better with being unseeded with likes of Astana, Sparta Prague and Maccabi Haifa going to be seeded in Q3

Best way to put this Maeda and McGregor has ruined any chance we had of qualifying for group stage football

Based on the current projection, we could also play a team from Moldova that you’ve omitted. We’ll need a good draw obviously but even if we lose in Q2 or Q3 we have a second chance. Not sure what happens with seeding for teams dropping into Conference qualifying form Europa either.

[CentreForward]

Just looking at the EEN where they’re trying to explain our position and what might happen. From what I can see they’re getting it all wrong total BS in fact!

[TimeForHeroes32]

Based on the current projection, we could also play a team from Moldova that you’ve omitted. We’ll need a good draw obviously but even if we lose in Q2 or Q3 we have a second chance. Not sure what happens with seeding for teams dropping into Conference qualifying form Europa either.

Also that Moldovan team is one of the best teams we could get for chance get through but also that team regularly features in Europe and only 3-4 seasons ago beat Real Madrid in group stage so even you say a ‘team from Moldova’ doesn’t mean we are guaranteed to win that tie. Yes a lot easier than Braga but will still be a tough tie

Also we won’t be seeded if we drop down to conference after the first game so could play against teams like Astana, Santa Clara(if both are seeded) or Sparta Prague(who defintely will be). Again there will be more favourable teams and hopefully we can get a good draw but won’t be easy not being seeded

We need some very good luck with draws but basically the best teams we could play for chances of qualifying is still slim chances of us actually getting through to group stages

[He's here!]

Because we’re now what Dundee United would have got

Are United no longer in Europe after today? Or do they drop down to what fifth place gets? Or do they drop down to what Aberdeen would have had?

[Unseen work]

Just looking at the EEN where they’re trying to explain our position and what might happen. From what I can see they’re getting it all wrong total BS in fact!

Hibs observer;

Scenario: Aberdeen win the cup
The Scottish Cup winners, as well as winning one of the most venerable trophies in the game, are further rewarded with entry to the play-off round of the Europa League. Win the two-legged play-off tie, and the club advances to the league phase of UEFA's secondary continental tournament. Lose, and the club parachutes into the league phase of the tertiary-level Conference League.

If Aberdeen win the cup, they will take the play-off round spot despite finishing fifth in the Scottish Premiership and not automatically qualifying for Europe.

In this scenario, Hibs will almost certainly have a more arduous journey to league-phase football.

They will enter at the second qualifying round (2QR) of the Europa League as an unseeded team, which throws up some tricky ties. European football can obviously produce surprises, but a quick glance at the already-qualified teams in the Europa League first qualifying round (1QR) shows seeded clubs including Ukrainian cracks Shakhtar Donetsk, Legia Warsaw of Poland, Serbian side Partizan Belgrade, Sheriff Tiraspol of Moldova, Romanians CFR Cluj, and Celje of Slovenia. Assuming that all teams with a higher coefficient progress, then there are some rather daunting potential match-ups. Portuguese side Braga have also qualified as a seeded team in the 2QR.

Unseeded teams in the 1QR include Paks of Hungary and the Kazakh side Aktobe.

The draw for the third qualifying round (3QR) will be made before Hibs contest their 2QR tie, so they will know who lies in wait if they advance. If they defeat a team with a high enough coefficient to be seeded in the 3QR, then Hibs will take their spot, which would, in theory, give them a more manageable tie against teams from, for example, Norway or Switzerland.

If they progress but end up on the unseeded side of the draw, then they will come up against the same big names from the 2QR – assuming they all advance.

Win their 3QR tie and Hibs would enter the draw for the Europa League play-off round on the unseeded side of the draw, along with Aberdeen, and guarantee themselves league-phase football in either the Europa League or Conference League.

So, in short, Hibs would need to win at least two knock-out games to guarantee league-phase European football, and they would almost certainly have to overcome formidable opposition in the process.

But if Hibs lose their 2QR tie, they would drop down to the Conference League 3QR, and because seeding is based on coefficients, there is a strong chance that Hibs could be unseeded. Teams use their club coefficient or country coefficient, whichever is higher, and in this case, Scotland's coefficient (7.110) is higher than Hibs' (4.5).

Many of the potential opponents at this stage are still to be confirmed, but there could be some potentially treacherous ties.

If Hibs win their 3QR tie by beating a seeded team, they will take their seeding for the play-off round, which would, in theory, reduce their chances of facing a much higher-ranked opponent.

If Hibs win their 3QR tie by beating an unseeded team, the prospect of facing fearsome opposition in a repeat of 2023's encounter with Aston Villa becomes very much a possibility.

Should Hibs lose their Europa League 2QR tie, they will drop into the Conference League 3QR. But if they lose either the 3QR tie or the Conference League play-off tie should they advance, they will drop out of Europe entirely.

In short, Aberdeen winning the cup would make things far more complex for Hibs.

[B.H.F.C]

Are United no longer in Europe after today? Or do they drop down to what fifth place gets? Or do they drop down to what Aberdeen would have had?

Utd now in Conference League Q2 rather than Europa.

[TrinityHFC]

We’ve beaten Celtic and Rangers this season. None of the teams I’ve seen listed seem much better. Always a chance.

Anyway, better than being relegated….

[CentreForward]

Hibs observer;

Scenario: Aberdeen win the cup
The Scottish Cup winners, as well as winning one of the most venerable trophies in the game, are further rewarded with entry to the play-off round of the Europa League. Win the two-legged play-off tie, and the club advances to the league phase of UEFA's secondary continental tournament. Lose, and the club parachutes into the league phase of the tertiary-level Conference League.

If Aberdeen win the cup, they will take the play-off round spot despite finishing fifth in the Scottish Premiership and not automatically qualifying for Europe.

In this scenario, Hibs will almost certainly have a more arduous journey to league-phase football.

They will enter at the second qualifying round (2QR) of the Europa League as an unseeded team, which throws up some tricky ties. European football can obviously produce surprises, but a quick glance at the already-qualified teams in the Europa League first qualifying round (1QR) shows seeded clubs including Ukrainian cracks Shakhtar Donetsk, Legia Warsaw of Poland, Serbian side Partizan Belgrade, Sheriff Tiraspol of Moldova, Romanians CFR Cluj, and Celje of Slovenia. Assuming that all teams with a higher coefficient progress, then there are some rather daunting potential match-ups. Portuguese side Braga have also qualified as a seeded team in the 2QR.

Unseeded teams in the 1QR include Paks of Hungary and the Kazakh side Aktobe.

The draw for the third qualifying round (3QR) will be made before Hibs contest their 2QR tie, so they will know who lies in wait if they advance. If they defeat a team with a high enough coefficient to be seeded in the 3QR, then Hibs will take their spot, which would, in theory, give them a more manageable tie against teams from, for example, Norway or Switzerland.

If they progress but end up on the unseeded side of the draw, then they will come up against the same big names from the 2QR – assuming they all advance.

Win their 3QR tie and Hibs would enter the draw for the Europa League play-off round on the unseeded side of the draw, along with Aberdeen, and guarantee themselves league-phase football in either the Europa League or Conference League.

So, in short, Hibs would need to win at least two knock-out games to guarantee league-phase European football, and they would almost certainly have to overcome formidable opposition in the process.

But if Hibs lose their 2QR tie, they would drop down to the Conference League 3QR, and because seeding is based on coefficients, there is a strong chance that Hibs could be unseeded. Teams use their club coefficient or country coefficient, whichever is higher, and in this case, Scotland's coefficient (7.110) is higher than Hibs' (4.5).

Many of the potential opponents at this stage are still to be confirmed, but there could be some potentially treacherous ties.

If Hibs win their 3QR tie by beating a seeded team, they will take their seeding for the play-off round, which would, in theory, reduce their chances of facing a much higher-ranked opponent.

If Hibs win their 3QR tie by beating an unseeded team, the prospect of facing fearsome opposition in a repeat of 2023's encounter with Aston Villa becomes very much a possibility.

Should Hibs lose their Europa League 2QR tie, they will drop into the Conference League 3QR. But if they lose either the 3QR tie or the Conference League play-off tie should they advance, they will drop out of Europe entirely.

In short, Aberdeen winning the cup would make things far more complex for Hibs.



That’s certainly a very detailed and far better explanation than the EEN. Celtic really have made it so much harder for us today.

[B.H.F.C]

Also that Moldovan team is one of the best teams we could get for chance get through but also that team regularly features in Europe and only 3-4 seasons ago beat Real Madrid in group stage so even you say a ‘team from Moldova’ doesn’t mean we are guaranteed to win that tie. Yes a lot easier than Braga but will still be a tough tie

Also we won’t be seeded if we drop down to conference after the first game so could play against teams like Astana, Santa Clara(if both are seeded) or Sparta Prague(who defintely will be). Again there will be more favourable teams and hopefully we can get a good draw but won’t be easy not being seeded

We need some very good luck with draws but basically the best teams we could play for chances of qualifying is still slim chances of us actually getting through to group stages

Nothing is going to be easy but I read some posts that make it sound like there is no point in entering now. It’s far from the case. We’ve actually beaten some decent sides in our more recent European ties, limited I accept. But having the second chance this time round does improve our chances.

[SteveHFC]

As of today the only confirmed seeded teams are Braga, Young Boys (Lugano missed out) and Anderlecht
If Copenhagen win Danish Cup on Thursday they will be seeded however if Silkeborg win then they would be unseeded
Whoever wins the place from Turkey will be unseeded

Other seeded teams depend on 1st round results

I Think thats all correct but head is buzzing trying to plan so many different potential trips

2025–26 UEFA Europa League - Wikipedia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%9326_UEFA_Europa_League)

[DIXIHIBS]

As of today the only confirmed seeded teams are Braga, Young Boys (Lugano missed out) and Anderlecht
If Copenhagen win Danish Cup on Thursday they will be seeded however if Silkeborg win then they would be unseeded
Whoever wins the place from Turkey will be unseeded

Other seeded teams depend on 1st round results

I Think thats all correct but head is buzzing trying to plan so many different potential trips

2025–26 UEFA Europa League - Wikipedia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%9326_UEFA_Europa_League)

The wiki page explains it very well...better than most on here lol.

[7Hero]

Some of the sides you mention have to play in Q1 first of all.

The graphic shown is only a projection based upon coefficient points.

The hope is that some of those sides you mention get eliminated in Q1, potentially offering us a kinder draw.

so the teams that knock out the strong teams could result in us getitng a kinder draw ?

[Alfred E Newman]

Yep but only unseeded in the qualifiers and still some very tough games. I think the first game is the most important for us. Win that and we could be seeded for the second.

How do you become a seed? Through no fault of our own we have went from guaranteed group stage to unseeded in any scenario thanks to a fluke cup win by Aberdeen.

[SteveHFC]

so the teams that knock out the strong teams could result in us getitng a kinder draw ?


unseeded teams who knockout seeded teams get the seeded teams coefficient for next round so yes could be an easier draw however it could also mean travelling further as well

[SteveHFC]

How do you become a seed? Through no fault of our own we have went from guaranteed group stage to unseeded in any scenario thanks to a fluke cup win by Aberdeen.

based on club results in europe over last 5 years or the clubs country coeffient whatever is higher

Club coefficients | UEFA rankings | UEFA.com (https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/club/?year=2025)

in our case hibs is 4.5 while scotlands is 7.11 so we get the 7.11

[Ribs1875]

Some folk need to stop the negativity! We finished 3rd convincingly, having came from 12th place in November. Aberdeen winning the cup was out of our control. Folk should just accept it for what it is.

The fact hearts fans celebrating are Aberdeens win (their own failure not reaching a final to win a cup) is laughable. A team who were poor against their 10 men side stopped them getting to the final in extra time 2 mins from penalties. As much as I dislike Aberdeen, I'd much rather them have got to the final and won than hearts because that was the option on offer.

Yes, it's now a more bumpy road in Europe for us. We've had positive results in Europe recently and are coming up against teams no better than the old firm, who we have beaten in recent months. We have a club legend in the dugout who some (including myself) wrote off, who has giving us back some swagger. He's made us a difficult team to beat, and had us playing a solid formation. I am still excited for Europe and think bring it on.

[Speedy]

But if we make the Europa play off round, lose and we drop directly into confernce?

The bigger problem is a situation where we're in the conference play off against the likes of Newcastle or Lazio.

[Bristolhibby]

Celtic really have failed us miserably! Reading all the scenarios on here you can see that unless we perform really well then this is a financial disaster for us and we’ve probably lost several million out of this. On the other hand if we somehow manage to get through to the Conference league group then we could actually make more than we originally thought as we would have had more games to get there and that should bring in more money . What this does do though is to have a big effect on our budget as we now won’t have any idea what sort of money we might be taking in and this is bound to effect our transfer activity. Not good news.

We can’t have lost it. It was never ours to lose.

Aberdeen won the cup and the £5m. That’s what comes from winning the cup.

We should have done better at Parkhead.

Hibs did everything we could going into the Cup final. Just so happened that Aberdeen benefitted from a Honking Celtic performance. TBF that’s the only way to beat Celtic at Hampden. Pray that they are on a terrible day.

Sad thing is, you know next year whoever they get in the final they will be gunning for them. No way they will lose two Cup finals in a row. If we HAVE to play them, we want them at ER.

J

[hibsboy07]

I'll be watching for low flying pigs if that happens.

Can you see them yet ?

[Eyrie]

Can you see them yet ?

Saw them yesterday.


I can see them swooping around outside my window.

[ruthven_raiders]

Maybe teams will be unhappy at playing us in qualifying 💚

[scoopyboy]

The bigger problem is a situation where we're in the conference play off against the likes of Newcastle or Lazio.

It would be a huge problem if we played Newcastle as they’ve qualified for the Champions League.

An even bigger problem if we played Lazio as they’ve not qualified for any of the tournaments

[Speedy]

It would be a huge problem if we played Newcastle as they’ve qualified for the Champions League.

An even bigger problem if we played Lazio as they’ve not qualified for any of the tournaments

Sounds like Lazio would be disqualified if they turned up instead of Fiorentina. Result, we're through :greengrin

[MacGruber]

Ergo, I would argue Hibs chances of doing so are slim to none.

About the same or better chances as Aberdeen beating Celtic in the cup final

[EGL2000]

About the same or better chances as Aberdeen beating Celtic in the cup final

One off game though over 2 league a team with higher quality usually shines through. Obviously not always but the 2 legs definitely makes it harder.

[DIXIHIBS]

Why do some posters persistently come on here just to say Hibs have no chance in Europe...that's it. No debate, no argument etc. Give it up guys.

[MacGruber]

We can’t have lost it. It was never ours to lose.

Aberdeen won the cup and the £5m. That’s what comes from winning the cup.

We should have done better at Parkhead.

Hibs did everything we could going into the Cup final. Just so happened that Aberdeen benefitted from a Honking Celtic performance. TBF that’s the only way to beat Celtic at Hampden. Pray that they are on a terrible day.

Sad thing is, you know next year whoever they get in the final they will be gunning for them. No way they will lose two Cup finals in a row. If we HAVE to play them, we want them at ER.

J

We were just incredibly unlucky with the cup draws. Away to Celtic twice. For the Scottish cup tie, nobody was beating Celtic at their place at that point in time. If Aberdeen had drawn them they would have got steamrollered. A home tie gives you a puncher's chance and Hampden a better chance than Parkhead albeit marginally. It would take Celtic having an absolute howler in the bargain which you would be lucky to have happen. It happened for Aberdeen and for what it's worth, if we avoided Celtic in the earlier rounds we would have won that game ourselves.

Hibs have been sensational since the turnaround and deservedly finished best of the rest and got the European place accordingly. The feel good factor is through the roof and the frustration of missing out on the groups is understandable, I've had a face like a well skelped arse last few days. That said, the club are on a roll and building something special. The efforts of everyone and the determination and team spirit on show deserves more than us sulking about what happened in Glasgow between two other football teams. The European draws will be what they'll be now, let's see if we can take this team forward and continue to create our own history