Opta Predictions for top 6

[Brianmcd]

Noticed on BBC website that Opta are predicting 80% chance of Hibs being third. Can’t work out how to upload graphic on iPhone. But -

3rd
Hibs 80%
DU 10.4%
Aberdeen 9.6%

4th
Hibs 16.1%
DU 47.5%
Aberdeen 36.1
St Mirren 0.2%

5th
Hibs 3.9%
DU 41%
Aberdeen 52.8%
St Mirren 2.4%

Doesn’t feel like that to be honest.

[McSwanky]

Noticed on BBC website that Opta are predicting 80% chance of Hibs being third. Can’t work out how to upload graphic on iPhone. But -

3rd
Hibs 80%
DU 10.4%
Aberdeen 9.6%

4th
Hibs 16.1%
DU 47.5%
Aberdeen 36.1
St Mirren 0.2%

5th
Hibs 3.9%
DU 41%
Aberdeen 52.8%
St Mirren 2.4%

Doesn’t feel like that to be honest.What about Hearts? Can't see them mentioned anywhere?

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[cubehindthegoal]

What about Hearts? Can't see them mentioned anywhere?

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Just ran it through my computer (“computer” … does anyone say that anymore even .. I’m so old 🙄😂)

League table :

Who Cares
Who cares
Hibs
Some others
hearts
?

So tempting to bring up the natural order hearts quote .. but I won’t 😜

[Broken Gnome]

Noticed on BBC website that Opta are predicting 80% chance of Hibs being third. Can’t work out how to upload graphic on iPhone. But -

3rd
Hibs 80%
DU 10.4%
Aberdeen 9.6%

4th
Hibs 16.1%
DU 47.5%
Aberdeen 36.1
St Mirren 0.2%

5th
Hibs 3.9%
DU 41%
Aberdeen 52.8%
St Mirren 2.4%

Doesn’t feel like that to be honest.

So many of the scenarios depend on tomorrow obviously, but I think you're right - it doesn't feel quite yet we're a four in five chance of finishing third.

[Iain G]

I think that if we win more points than the other teams we have a good chance of being 3rd

[danhibees1875]

I make it 43.6%, but what do I know. :dunno:

Tomorrow is massive. A win, or even a draw, would be huge.

[SteveHFC]

What about Hearts? Can't see them mentioned anywhere?

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Already won the league.

[JohnM1875]

I make it 43.6%, but what do I know. :dunno:

Tomorrow is massive. A win, or even a draw, would be huge.

Win tomorrow its done imo.

Dunno why, but have a nippy feeling we’ll lose.

[Hibees1973]

Don't like these stats....might be binned after Saturdays games.

Sure the Yam had a 94%+ chance of qualifying for the Conference League knock out stages after two games but they blew it.

[danhibees1875]

Win tomorrow its done imo.

Dunno why, but have a nippy feeling we’ll lose.

Win tomorrow and we're in a better spot but would also need a result (draw or win) against Utd I think.

I know what you mean...

[worcesterhibby]

What about Hearts? Can't see them mentioned anywhere?

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They weren't going for third... it was split the old firm or nothing..... so they eventually decided to just go for nothing:greengrin

[jakedance]

Four points from next two games and we're almost there. Lose tomorrow and it's anyone's guess. St Mirren are going to have a big say in who comes third.

[OstKurve Hibs]

Hearts are above opta, they operate in Jamestown now !

[Bobby's Cinema]

The goal difference is huge. It's put us effectively 2 results in-front of both.

If we can keep the unbeaten run going tomorrow, then that's huge with only 4 games to go inc. Dundee Utd and St Mirren still to come and a home game to finish, you would have to fancy us.

4 pts could do us in the end. that would mean you're asking Aberdeen or Dundee Utd to win 3 games.

[Cabbage-Patch]

Noticed on BBC website that Opta are predicting 80% chance of Hibs being third. Can’t work out how to upload graphic on iPhone. But -

3rd
Hibs 80%
DU 10.4%
Aberdeen 9.6%

4th
Hibs 16.1%
DU 47.5%
Aberdeen 36.1
St Mirren 0.2%

5th
Hibs 3.9%
DU 41%
Aberdeen 52.8%
St Mirren 2.4%

Doesn’t feel like that to be honest.

Think that's being very generous to us tbh. Lose one game and it all looks very different.

[Broken Gnome]

Think that's being very generous to us tbh. Lose one game and it all looks very different.

Not that I'd look to understate 17 games unbeaten, but it does seem to be heavily weighted by the run of form we've been on. This league has been full of clubs going from one extreme to another - we can afford one disappointing outcome, but not two or three.

[He's here!]

The goal difference is huge. It's put us effectively 2 results in-front of both.

If we can keep the unbeaten run going tomorrow, then that's huge with only 4 games to go inc. Dundee Utd and St Mirren still to come and a home game to finish, you would have to fancy us.

4 pts could do us in the end. that would mean you're asking Aberdeen or Dundee Utd to win 3 games.

Going into the split three points clear is also a big plus in the sense that whatever happens tomorrow (bar an unthinkable goal swing) we'll still end the day in third, a better goal difference and just four games to go.

[Paul1642]

Footballxg, a computer generated league table predictor site, has the final table as being:

3rd - Hibs - 60 points +13.3 goal difference
4th - Dundee United -2.2 goal difference
5th - Aberdeen -7.8 goal difference

[Donegal Hibby]

Win tomorrow its done imo.

Dunno why, but have a nippy feeling we’ll lose.

If you were offered a draw right now would you take it?

[Speedy]

Think that's being very generous to us tbh. Lose one game and it all looks very different.

Not sure it is overly generous from a probability perspective.

Aberdeen away - even if we lose that we're still ahead of them and Dundee United.

Dundee Utd at home - we'll be favourites. Dundee United are later at home to Aberdeen and also favourites. Statistically we'll be likely to match or better Utds result against Aberdeen.

St Mirren/Celtic/Rangers. All 3 of us/Aberdeen/Utd will be about as likely to win or lose those games.

Of course. Football rarely works like that and tomorrow's game will be huge. I'd bite your hand off for a draw (and Dundee Utd defeat).

[CapitalGreen]

If you were offered a draw right now would you take it?

Yes. Draws away to Aberdeen and St Mirren and a win at home to Dun Utd will be enough for 3rd imo without us having to worry about getting anything against the OF.

[Paul1642]

Yes. Draws away to Aberdeen and St Mirren and a win at home to Dun Utd will be enough for 3rd imo without us having to worry about getting anything against the OF.

I think you can change the teams about and say 2 draws and 1 win from these fixtures does the job.

[Hibs07p]

https://newspaperscotland.mailplus.co.uk/data/5968/reader/reader.html#!preferred/0/package/5968/pub/20337/page/90

this is behind a paywall,

but it shows us after 15 games, bottom of the league with 12 points on 7th December, and after Hibs 17 game unbeaten run since the 7th December being top of the league on 41 points after 17 games, 3 points ahead of Celtc who have played a game more, and 4 ahead of the huns who have played 2 more games. We are the form team. Hearts 31 after 17, Arabs 26 after 18, St Mirren 23 after 17, and the sheep 16 after 17 games.

GGTTH
Scottish Cup Winners
2016

[Nevi_SOL]

Win tomorrow and I think it's done, Aberdeen and United would need to pick up 7 points more than us over 4 games, whilst still having to play each other. Obviously SDG isn't going to let anyone varied away and on the flip side if we were to lose tomorrow Dave will have the team up for the united game.

[danhibees1875]

Win tomorrow and I think it's done, Aberdeen and United would need to pick up 7 points more than us over 4 games, whilst still having to play each other. Obviously SDG isn't going to let anyone varied away and on the flip side if we were to lose tomorrow Dave will have the team up for the united game.

A win tomorrow would be great.

But it leaves UTD just having to match that, beat us, and pick up a point more somewhere (flook something v OF, or we slip up at Paisley).

[GreenNWhiteArmy]

The first 2 games settle it. 6 points it's done. 4 points should see us over the line. 2 keeps it in the balance. Any less and it's a worry

Genuinely buzzing to even be in this position. Keep it going tomorrow please hibees. That 3rd place euro football if celtic win the cup would be massive to us

[SHODAN]

I think that if we win more points than the other teams we have a good chance of being 3rd

Bit controversial mate.

[Donegal Hibby]

Yes. Draws away to Aberdeen and St Mirren and a win at home to Dun Utd will be enough for 3rd imo without us having to worry about getting anything against the OF.

So would I .. a draw would keep us 3 points ahead of Aberdeen and hopefully we gain a point on Dundee Utd , win against Utd at home and they are gone with Aberdeen facing a tricky away match at the buddies .

[danhibees1875]

The first 2 games settle it. 6 points it's done. 4 points should see us over the line. 2 keeps it in the balance. Any less and it's a worry

Genuinely buzzing to even be in this position. Keep it going tomorrow please hibees. That 3rd place euro football if celtic win the cup would be massive to us

What do you think is the better outcome, 2 points or 3?

[CallumLaidlaw]

What do you think is the better outcome, 2 points or 3?

Normally you’d say 3, but this scenario might be the one where 2 was better.
Beat Aberdeen then we can worry about the next game [emoji23]


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[King Cosell]

Sky Bet:

Hibs 2/7
Aberdeen 4/1
Dundee Utd 6/1

[GreenNWhiteArmy]

What do you think is the better outcome, 2 points or 3?

Weirdly, arguably 2 as neither will have gained on us directly and the GD offers us an extra point effectively. What you reckon Dan?

As callum says though, let's beat the sheep and move on from there :-)

[danhibees1875]

Weirdly, arguably 2 as neither will have gained on us directly and the GD offers us an extra point effectively. What you reckon Dan?

As callum says though, let's beat the sheep and move on from there :-)

Tricky one isn't it! My initial reaction is, counterintuitive as it seems, 2 points.

[CapitalGreen]

Weirdly, arguably 2 as neither will have gained on us directly and the GD offers us an extra point effectively. What you reckon Dan?

As callum says though, let's beat the sheep and move on from there :-)

Losing to Dun Utd when they still have home games against St Mirren and Aberdeen to come would not be good. So 2 points would be better than 3 in that scenario imo.

Whereas losing to Aberdeen wouldn’t be the end of the world if we followed it up with a win against Dun Utd.

[Paul1642]

Losing to Dun Utd when they still have home games against St Mirren and Aberdeen to come would not be good. So 2 points would be better than 3 in that scenario imo.

Whereas losing to Aberdeen wouldn’t be the end of the world if we followed it up with a win against Dun Utd.

If this comes down to the last game it could be a crazy one, with us only potentially needing the result against Rangers depending on which way the Aberdeen vs Dundee United games goes. A bit like Hearts situation last week except we aren’t **** :)