Bookies view - Hibs top 6 Hearts bottom 6

[Springbank]

See the bookies think that, by the split, Hibs will be 5th and Hearts 8th

https://x.com/pieandbov/status/1883830553075405116?t=3cvAxS0di8q9z8Q1DPUO0w&s=19

[Hibspur]

We have a strong chance of top six provided we don't suffer a confidence-denting couple of defeats. I actually think we need to be wary of that cup tie at Ayr when it comes to maintaining momentum.

I wouldn't set much store on the bookies with this though. There's not much between the vast majority of the teams but I'll be quite surprised if Hearts don't end up making the top six. Fingers crossed they don't, but in truth they're probably stronger than the teams around them at present.

[Johnny_Leith]

Hearts will make top 6 and are good value to do so at the bookies. Will love it if they don’t but they’ve picked up of late and it’s a tight league.

[007]

I reckon we will both make top 6 and I'm going to predict it will be us and them battling for 3rd come the end of the season. 😲

[Alex Trager]

I reckon we will both make top 6 and I'm going to predict it will be us and them battling for 3rd come the end of the season. 😲

I’d be genuinely surprised if we were battling for third never mind them.

We’ve dropped too many points of late to get right in the mix for it and they’re miles off it.

[whereswallace?]

I got a decent bet on at 41/1 on both Hibs and Hearts to be top 6 at the start of December. My rationale was neither could get any worse and would strengthen significantly in January.

[Paul1642]

I’d be genuinely surprised if we were battling for third never mind them.

We’ve dropped too many points of late to get right in the mix for it and they’re miles off it.

7 and 10 points behind with 14 games to go is very much still in the mix, especially with 2 games remaining against both Dundee United and Aberdeen if we all get top 6.

Aberdeen are in free-fall.
Dundee United are riding their luck big time and I’m confident it ends.
Motherwell are Pish.

We won’t even need to be particularly amazing for the rest of the season to take 3rd, decent will probably do it. I do worry Hearts could be our biggest competition but fortunately they too are pish.

[bingo70]

I got a decent bet on at 41/1 on both Hibs and Hearts to be top 6 at the start of December. My rationale was neither could get any worse and would strengthen significantly in January.

They’re incredible odds, looks like a great bet.

I actually think this weekend could potentially be a really important one. Hibs and St Mirren both have winnable home fixtures and if Hearts lose then Dundee will obviously have won as well. Hearts have a terrible record at Dens I think, (going back to the mid 80s I believe 😃).

If those results happen and I do appreciate it’s a big IF, that’s a 6 point gap opened up between them and multiple teams. Hearts are on a good run of form just now but like us and Aberdeen have found, that run isn’t likely to be sustained over a long period, all other teams are too similar in standard not to start to drop points along the way.

If Hearts win and us or St Mirren drop points, they’ll be likely to finish in the top 6 I think.

[Alex Trager]

7 and 10 points behind with 14 games to go is very much still in the mix, especially with 2 games remaining against both Dundee United and Aberdeen if we all get top 6.

Aberdeen are in free-fall.
Dundee United are riding their luck big time and I’m confident it ends.
Motherwell are Pish.

We won’t even need to be particularly amazing for the rest of the season to take 3rd, decent will probably do it. I do worry Hearts could be our biggest competition but fortunately they too are pish.

My biggest concern is that we haven’t taken enough points from the *****.
2 points from the bottom 2 teams is not good enough.

I absolutely agree re DU, and had we won at the weekend, I’d be feeling a lot more optimistic.

The reality is, we have Hearts/Celtic/Rangers/DU/Sheep/SM/Killie left to play.
If they remaining fixtures were a bit kinder, I’d agree. As it stands, i feel a lot less confident we can get third.

Aberdeen are in free fall but they will snap out of it at some point, and despite them gifting us opportunity after opportunity, we are still behind them.
Their performances have not been as bad as their results, a bit like us at the start of the season.

I do agree with the points you make generally, with regards the quality of the league, sadly, you have to include us in that too.

Go for broke with the cup and third doesn’t matter anyway 👀

[Since452]

Hearts are in good form themselves. I expect both us and them will finish top 6.

[Steve20]

If we're serious about finishing 3rd, we need to accept that draws against St Johnstone and Ross County are not 'a decent away point'. They're two points dropped each. Can't be losing four points over those two games and expect to seriously challenge for 3rd.

Signings needed to go straight in the team.

[Alex Trager]

If we're serious about finishing 3rd, we need to accept that draws against St Johnstone and Ross County are not 'a decent away point'. They're two points dropped each. Can't be losing four points over those two games and expect to seriously challenge for 3rd.

Signings needed to go straight in the team.

Agree on both points. Sadly I expect the signings will take their time to get up to speed which is why I don’t think we will finish third.

[matty_f]

Agree on both points. Sadly I expect the signings will take their time to get up to speed which is why I don’t think we will finish third.

They’re bad results if you’re pushing for third, no doubt about it.

We did an episode last night that looked at expected finish based on some stats and at the split it had us fifth and Hearts tenth iirc.

[Alex Trager]

They’re bad results if you’re pushing for third, no doubt about it.

We did an episode last night that looked at expected finish based on some stats and at the split it had us fifth and Hearts tenth iirc.
I’d take that.

Who was 4th in xg table btw?

[matty_f]

I’d take that.

Who was 4th in xg table btw?

Aberdeen, with Dundee United in third, 6 ahead of us going into the split.

[Alex Trager]

Aberdeen, with Dundee United in third, 6 ahead of us going into the split.

I thought we were third on balance of xg for and against?

If so, who was fourth?

[matty_f]

I thought we were third on balance of xg for and against?

If so, who was fourth?

That’s for the season to date, the prediction takes into account our actual position now.

Table here:
https://footballxg.com/xg-league-tables/

Predicted table:
https://footballxg.com/leaguetablepredictions/

[Alex Trager]

That’s for the season to date, the prediction takes into account our actual position now.

Table here:
https://footballxg.com/xg-league-tables/

Predicted table:
https://footballxg.com/leaguetablepredictions/

Wow. Surprised to see Del should be in fourth.

Colin won’t be happy about that 👀

[bingo70]

That’s for the season to date, the prediction takes into account our actual position now.

Table here:
https://footballxg.com/xg-league-tables/

Predicted table:
https://footballxg.com/leaguetablepredictions/

Have to say I’m sceptical with all these stats, I know I’m a dinosaur but that xg stuff is a load of rubbish, it’ll never catch on 😂

Does anybody ever check in on these sites to see how accurate they end up being? Be interesting to look back at the predicted league table this time last year and see how accurate it was at the end.

[B.H.F.C]

My biggest concern is that we haven’t taken enough points from the *****.
2 points from the bottom 2 teams is not good enough.

I absolutely agree re DU, and had we won at the weekend, I’d be feeling a lot more optimistic.

The reality is, we have Hearts/Celtic/Rangers/DU/Sheep/SM/Killie left to play.
If they remaining fixtures were a bit kinder, I’d agree. As it stands, i feel a lot less confident we can get third.

Aberdeen are in free fall but they will snap out of it at some point, and despite them gifting us opportunity after opportunity, we are still behind them.
Their performances have not been as bad as their results, a bit like us at the start of the season.

I do agree with the points you make generally, with regards the quality of the league, sadly, you have to include us in that too.

Go for broke with the cup and third doesn’t matter anyway 👀

I think the lack of wins we’ve had this season has been overlooked a lot recently.

We do still have a chance of third despite how things have went this season. But we’ll probably need to win more games in our last 14 game than we managed in our first 24 to get it.

4 of the remaining 14 games are against Celtic and Rangers and we’ll take a minimal amount of points from them. It’s going to take a serious amount of points from the games against all the others to push for third.

[matty_f]

Have to say I’m sceptical with all these stats, I know I’m a dinosaur but that xg stuff is a load of rubbish, it’ll never catch on 😂

Does anybody ever check in on these sites to see how accurate they end up being? Be interesting to look back at the predicted league table this time last year and see how accurate it was at the end.
I can’t see what the prediction was like and we looked at last season’s xG table compared to the real table but it doesn’t deal well with the split in Scotland (it had us 7th, by the way - one place above our actual finish).


Good explanation of how they predict here:

https://footballxg.com/what_are_expected_goals/