Shots at goal

[Donegal Hibby]

After hertz lost to Kilmarnock I noticed on their forum one of them put up shot stats that had us third in the league for having shots .

I don’t know if this is correct or not though looking at the last four games we have played we have had seventy one shots at goal with twenty eight on target which has resulted in us scoring nine goals in the four games which probably should have been more as well …

Comparing our shots to hertz 58/18 , Aberdeen 38/15 , Motherwell 52/ 19 and Dundee Utd 57/23 . Is the change in formation to do with this or is our play just been more direct lately?

[worcesterhibby]

After hertz lost to Kilmarnock I noticed on their forum one of them put up shot stats that had us third in the league for having shots .

I don’t know if this is correct or not though looking at the last four games we have played we have had seventy one shots at goal with twenty eight on target which has resulted in us scoring nine goals in the four games which probably should have been more as well …

Comparing our shots to hertz 58/18 , Aberdeen 38/15 , Motherwell 52/ 19 and Dundee Utd 57/23 . Is the change in formation to do with this or is our play just been more direct lately?

if you like stats, there are quite a few that are positive. Obviously 6 points out of the last 9 is the key one. But if you look at our goal difference, compared to the other teams in the bottom 6, it’s obvious that we are actually better than most of the teams around us, we’ve conceded fewer goals (29) than everyone else in the bottom 6 other than Hearts (26) and Dundee who we are the same as. Goals for (21) we are better than everyone except Dundee. All that would suggest that bottom of the league was a false position for us and that 8th best in the league is about our level currently ( yes I know we’re 9th but I actually think we are better than killi.) certainly it would suggest we are better than Ross County and St Johnstone ( who I think will end up bottom and second bottom).

The real test is to see if we can maintain the upward trajectory and keep improving. I honestly believe the squad we have is capable of top 6 and if we make a couple of sensible signings in January maybe even nick 5th, although 6th is much more likely.

[ancient hibee]

All true but there has been a distinct change which in the space of 4 games has taken us from lowest goal scorers in the league to the present level.

[Donegal Hibby]

if you like stats, there are quite a few that are positive. Obviously 6 points out of the last 9 is the key one. But if you look at our goal difference, compared to the other teams in the bottom 6, it’s obvious that we are actually better than most of the teams around us, we’ve conceded fewer goals (29) than everyone else in the bottom 6 other than Hearts (26) and Dundee who we are the same as. Goals for (21) we are better than everyone except Dundee. All that would suggest that bottom of the league was a false position for us and that 8th best in the league is about our level currently ( yes I know we’re 9th but I actually think we are better than killi.) certainly it would suggest we are better than Ross County and St Johnstone ( who I think will end up bottom and second bottom).

The real test is to see if we can maintain the upward trajectory and keep improving. I honestly believe the squad we have is capable of top 6 and if we make a couple of sensible signings in January maybe even nick 5th, although 6th is much more likely.

Like the positivity WH and agree with everything in your post 👍

[Donegal Hibby]

if you like stats, there are quite a few that are positive. Obviously 6 points out of the last 9 is the key one. But if you look at our goal difference, compared to the other teams in the bottom 6, it’s obvious that we are actually better than most of the teams around us, we’ve conceded fewer goals (29) than everyone else in the bottom 6 other than Hearts (26) and Dundee who we are the same as. Goals for (21) we are better than everyone except Dundee. All that would suggest that bottom of the league was a false position for us and that 8th best in the league is about our level currently ( yes I know we’re 9th but I actually think we are better than killi.) certainly it would suggest we are better than Ross County and St Johnstone ( who I think will end up bottom and second bottom).

The real test is to see if we can maintain the upward trajectory and keep improving. I honestly believe the squad we have is capable of top 6 and if we make a couple of sensible signings in January maybe even nick 5th, although 6th is much more likely.

Another positive stat is we have played the top three teams and had fifty three shots against them which hopefully is something we can keep doing against other teams.

[Viva_Palmeiras]

Dare I ask our xG? And whether that is helpful or not as an indicator as to how we’re performing?

[matty_f]

Dare I ask our xG? And whether that is helpful or not as an indicator as to how we’re performing?

We're third:
https://footystats.org/scotland/premiership/xg

We're also third for expected goal difference (xG for minus xG against) and the table would suggest that neither us or Hearts are where we should be in the table.

Caveat - we had two games where the xG for was boosted significantly by the award of two penalties, which accounts for c0.2xG, removing those takes us to mid-table alongside Motherwell, however that's without adjusting any other teams' figure for penalties so the "fair" measure is where we are, in third.

We underperform our xG by 0.25 goals/game, and our xG against is better than our actual goals conceded, so that tells us we don't score as many as we should, and we concede more than we should, based on chances created and conceded.

Aberdeen have significantly outperformed their xG this season and that reflects a lot of the observations about them carrying a fair degree of good fortune earlier in the season, their recent results perhaps more reflective of their performances than their early season ones were.

Edit- I've overstated the impact of the penalties slightly, as I gave them an xG of 1 each, but they'll score around 0.75-0.8xG each but it's not a million miles off.

[bingo70]

Interesting thread.

I’m trying to be more positive about Gray. Monday to Friday, stats like this and looking at the league table certainly suggests we are not far away and I’m in the wrong for agitating for change.

When I watch us play I just don’t have the same positivity as I do from looking at the stats, I think we are an incredibly poor team. Dare say that’s the point in these stats though, to dig a bit deeper than the eye test.

In the fullness of time, we will end up where we deserve to end up, regardless of shots on target or XG stats, does feel like things could go either way just now though.

[BILLYHIBS]

Interesting thread.

I’m trying to be more positive about Gray. Monday to Friday, stats like this and looking at the league table certainly suggests we are not far away and I’m in the wrong for agitating for change.

When I watch us play I just don’t have the same positivity as I do from looking at the stats, I think we are an incredibly poor team. Dare say that’s the point in these stats though, to dig a bit deeper than the eye test.

In the fullness of time, we will end up where we deserve to end up, regardless of shots on target or XG stats, does feel like things could go either way just now though.
14 shots at Darkheid 9 on target nana goals must be something of a record in recent times

Was sitting at Easter Road on Saturday first half thinking to myself’ Dearie me this is not my club this is not Hibs this is complete and utter gash ‘

Things did improve second half but only the result

[bingo70]

14 shots at Darkheid 9 on target nana goals must be something of a record in recent times

Was sitting at Easter Road on Saturday first half thinking to myself’ Dearie me this is not my club this is not Hibs this is complete and utter gash ‘

Things did improve second half but only the result

Yeah, even earlier in the season when people were saying we were playing well but just unfortunate due to refereeing errors or individual mistakes I thought they were wrong as imo we have been absolutely dreadful all season, with a couple of exceptions.

Those stats would suggest I’m wrong but I’m no sure about that, that doesn’t sit right with me 😃 😜

[matty_f]

Yeah, even earlier in the season when people were saying we were playing well but just unfortunate due to refereeing errors or individual mistakes I thought they were wrong as imo we have been absolutely dreadful all season, with a couple of exceptions.

Those stats would suggest I’m wrong but I’m no sure about that, that doesn’t sit right with me 😃 😜
I think it's a bit of both - I would argue that we've done enough in the majority of games to get three points but without being brilliant in them.
The stats back that up and the eye test tells us we've not been brilliant - the fact that we've neither scored as many as we should have or kept our as many as we should have speaks to a lack of quality which had also impacted results which adds to the evidence that we're not very good.

I do think it strengthens Gray's case, though - I think these days, boards are more inclined to look behind the results at the underlying performances and we are a better team than our position has shown on that basis.

[worcesterhibby]

Yeah, even earlier in the season when people were saying we were playing well but just unfortunate due to refereeing errors or individual mistakes I thought they were wrong as imo we have been absolutely dreadful all season, with a couple of exceptions.

Those stats would suggest I’m wrong but I’m no sure about that, that doesn’t sit right with me 😃 😜

one of the issues all clubs in Scotland have is that everyone watches the EPL, which is jam packed with all the best players and coaches in the world. It raises expectations of “what quality football is” and tends to make the watcher expect to see a higher standard of football than is really possible from a Hibs team. Secondly, the influence of Social media in all its forms ( including Hibs.net) tends to put a negative spin on everything. It’s a platform for misery, so you go to the game ( at least partly) believing what you read.. that the players are “not fit to wear the shirt” “ not trying a leg” “utter pish”, so when mistakes happen ( which they inevitably will at our level) it confirms the negativity. All this builds up as abuse and pressure on the players and makes them play worse, which compounds the problem.

can you imagine what it must be like to have a job where 10,000 plus people see your every mistake.. shout abuse.. boo you as you take a break and then abuse you on social media for a week after ?

This is a new group of players, under a new manager, yet because of historical pressure they are expected to be fantastic from day one and when they fail they get abused by a vocal minority/majority.

We have about 14-15 decent players and a few than we are struggling to shift that aren’t good enough. Those 14-15 are capable, decent footballers. Not world beaters, but then we aren’t Real Madrid. We need DG to play to their strengths and know their capabilities and they need us to support them, not abuse them and we will then get the best out of them. That’s much easier to say than to do, admittedly.

GGTTH

[bingo70]

one of the issues all clubs in Scotland have is that everyone watches the EPL, which is jam packed with all the best players and coaches in the world. It raises expectations of “what quality football is” and tends to make the watcher expect to see a higher standard of football than is really possible from a Hibs team. Secondly, the influence of Social media in all its forms ( including Hibs.net) tends to put a negative spin on everything. It’s a platform for misery, so you go to the game ( at least partly) believing what you read.. that the players are “not fit to wear the shirt” “ not trying a leg” “utter pish”, so when mistakes happen ( which they inevitably will at our level) it confirms the negativity. All this builds up as abuse and pressure on the players and makes them play worse, which compounds the problem.

can you imagine what it must be like to have a job where 10,000 plus people see your every mistake.. shout abuse.. boo you as you take a break and then abuse you on social media for a week after ?

This is a new group of players, under a new manager, yet because of historical pressure they are expected to be fantastic from day one and when they fail they get abused by a vocal minority/majority.

We have about 14-15 decent players and a few than we are struggling to shift that aren’t good enough. Those 14-15 are capable, decent footballers. Not world beaters, but then we aren’t Real Madrid. We need DG to play to their strengths and know their capabilities and they need us to support them, not abuse them and we will then get the best out of them. That’s much easier to say than to do, admittedly.

GGTTH

I hardly watch any top level football these days, I’d rather watch a good boys club game, so I’m not sure the first part of your post is relevant to me, it might be to others though.

There’s definitely something in the rest of your post though. Maybe one if the reasons I’m convinced we are so bad is because I go into games expecting us to be, even with the best intentions, it’s hard not to think like that, when there’s so much negativity around from the league table to social media, even from speaking to people about us.

I’ll try and be more open minded this week. I promise 😃

[WhileTheChief..]

We do not have 14 or 15 decent players. If we did, we’d be further up the league.

Chat about us having done enough to win more games? How does that work? If we’d done enough we’d have got the 3 points!

I don’t need to see any stats. I was at ER for the St Mirren game, the Dundee game, and all the others where we were absolutely woeful.

Some of our performances this season have been as bad as anything we’ve ever seen in the last 20 years.

We need far better players if we ever want to play in Europe again.

[Bushwoof]

one of the issues all clubs in Scotland have is that everyone watches the EPL, which is jam packed with all the best players and coaches in the world. It raises expectations of “what quality football is” and tends to make the watcher expect to see a higher standard of football than is really possible from a Hibs team. Secondly, the influence of Social media in all its forms ( including Hibs.net) tends to put a negative spin on everything. It’s a platform for misery, so you go to the game ( at least partly) believing what you read.. that the players are “not fit to wear the shirt” “ not trying a leg” “utter pish”, so when mistakes happen ( which they inevitably will at our level) it confirms the negativity. All this builds up as abuse and pressure on the players and makes them play worse, which compounds the problem.

can you imagine what it must be like to have a job where 10,000 plus people see your every mistake.. shout abuse.. boo you as you take a break and then abuse you on social media for a week after ?

This is a new group of players, under a new manager, yet because of historical pressure they are expected to be fantastic from day one and when they fail they get abused by a vocal minority/majority.

We have about 14-15 decent players and a few than we are struggling to shift that aren’t good enough. Those 14-15 are capable, decent footballers. Not world beaters, but then we aren’t Real Madrid. We need DG to play to their strengths and know their capabilities and they need us to support them, not abuse them and we will then get the best out of them. That’s much easier to say than to do, admittedly.

GGTTH

Totally agree with all of that. Bloke next to me on Sat was banging on about how sh**e Triantis is all game, and I was just about convinced, then saw what a brilliant contribution he made to our equaliser when I watched Sportscene. And let's not even talk about Josh Campbell. We create our own misery.

[WhileTheChief..]

I hardly watch any top level football these days, I’d rather watch a good boys club game, so I’m not sure the first part of your post is relevant to me, it might be to others though.

There’s definitely something in the rest of your post though. Maybe one if the reasons I’m convinced we are so bad is because I go into games expecting us to be, even with the best intentions, it’s hard not to think like that, when there’s so much negativity around from the league table to social media, even from speaking to people about us.

I’ll try and be more open minded this week. I promise 😃

I’d be surprised if you formed your opinion on Hibs based on what you read online.

I think k you’re probably more like myself in that you call it as you see it.

The only Hibs social media I ever see is on here.

I read plenty of positive takes every day and it’s never influenced my thinking. I just don’t see what others apparently do.

[Onceinawhile]

We do not have 14 or 15 decent players. If we did, we’d be further up the league.

Chat about us having done enough to win more games? How does that work? If we’d done enough we’d have got the 3 points!

I don’t need to see any stats. I was at ER for the St Mirren game, the Dundee game, and all the others where we were absolutely woeful.

Some of our performances this season have been as bad as anything we’ve ever seen in the last 20 years.

We need far better players if we ever want to play in Europe again.

I'd argue we did enough to beat Dundee United at home, until an incorrect VAR intervention.

[bingo70]

I’d be surprised if you formed your opinion on Hibs based on what you read online.

I think k you’re probably more like myself in that you call it as you see it.

The only Hibs social media I ever see is on here.

I read plenty of positive takes every day and it’s never influenced my thinking. I just don’t see what others apparently do.

I like to think you are right but I also think subconsciously it must have an impact.

If you read and hear all week that Hibs are garbage, are you really going into the game with an open mind? I think my starting point before a ball is kicked recently is probably that ‘this is going to be ***** until proven otherwise’, unless it’s very very good, which it definitely hasn’t been, even when winning, I won’t have my mind changed.

[Paulie Walnuts]

We do not have 14 or 15 decent players. If we did, we’d be further up the league.

Chat about us having done enough to win more games? How does that work? If we’d done enough we’d have got the 3 points!

I don’t need to see any stats. I was at ER for the St Mirren game, the Dundee game, and all the others where we were absolutely woeful.

Some of our performances this season have been as bad as anything we’ve ever seen in the last 20 years.

We need far better players if we ever want to play in Europe again.

Have said the same about stats.

I can’t remember the numbers now, but after the game at Tannadice someone put up the xG. It was a game that finished 3-2 and the xG suggested both teams should have scored less than one goal. Anyone that watched that game and seen the 5 goals that were scored would have expected miles more goals than less than one each, and that’s before you even considered other opportunities that weren’t scored throughout the game.

XG is a load of absolute nonsense and our xG goal difference or even just the fact we shoot a lot of times during a game doesn’t tell us anything imo.

[HarpOnHibee]

Number of shots is an irrelevant statistic. The quality and positioning of the shots is far more important. That's why some teams can have a significant goal return ratio with few shots on target, while other teams can have numerous shots on target with a poor goal return. It's nothing to do with one team being lucky and the other being unlucky, it's ultimately down to efficiency.

A team that puts more emphasis on the quality of their chances rather than the quantity of their chances, generally win more games on a consistent basis. That's what we should be focusing on.

To be fair to our team though, they've done pretty well in this regard over the past several games. Even although the sheer number of chances are fewer, the overall quality of them is higher and this is allowing us to score more goals. 3 against Aberdeen, 3 against Motherwell and 3 against Ross County. With a bit better composure, we could have easily knocked a few in against Celtic as well. Quality over quantity shines every time.

[WhileTheChief..]

I'd argue we did enough to beat Dundee United at home, until an incorrect VAR intervention.

Well that’s one way to look at it!!

You could probably make a case in all our game along the lines of “if it wasn’t for……….we’d have won”.

There’s plenty of posts on here saying similar after each defeat.

None of it helps though. Every team that gets relegated will be able to tell you tales of woe and how unlucky they’ve been.

[flash]

Well that’s one way to look at it!!

You could probably make a case in all our game along the lines of “if it wasn’t for……….we’d have won”.

There’s plenty of posts on here saying similar after each defeat.

None of it helps though. Every team that gets relegated will be able to tell you tales of woe and how unlucky they’ve been.

We ain't getting relegated.

[WhileTheChief..]

Probably not, but we ain’t qualifying for Europe either which was the plan at the start of the season.

[erin go bragh]

Probably not, but we ain’t qualifying for Europe either which was the plan at the start of the season.

9pts off Motherwell in 4th. No way is Europe out of our reach.

[bingo70]

Have said the same about stats.

I can’t remember the numbers now, but after the game at Tannadice someone put up the xG. It was a game that finished 3-2 and the xG suggested both teams should have scored less than one goal. Anyone that watched that game and seen the 5 goals that were scored would have expected miles more goals than less than one each, and that’s before you even considered other opportunities that weren’t scored throughout the game.

XG is a load of absolute nonsense and our xG goal difference or even just the fact we shoot a lot of times during a game doesn’t tell us anything imo.

I didn’t see the game but apparently Spurs XG tonight was 0.67 but scored 4 goals.

[Donegal Hibby]

We had more shots away to Celtic than hertz had at home to petropub .. just saying :greengrin

[matty_f]

I didn’t see the game but apparently Spurs XG tonight was 0.67 but scored 4 goals.

They scored one straight from a corner, that would have a ridiculously low value - I think something like three in every hundred corners results in a goal - and that’s with someone other than the corner taker scoring, so a corner kick would likely be around 0.01xG.

I only saw Solanke’s goal for Spurs’ third (I think) but that would have been a chance that’s scored maybe three times out of ten, so for two goals that’s still only a 0.31xG.

Joe Newell’s shot that he fired over on Saturday would have had a decent xG on it but would still likely have been less than 0.5xG I reckon, it’s a shot that’s definitely missed more than one in two times despite looking really easy.

We had two penalties and scored one of them, and have done that in two matches, if we’d scored them both we’d have had two goals with under 2xG, if we’d scored both in both games then it would be about a full goal over the xG for those penalties.

If you only looked at Hibs in those games, our next penalty would only have a 0.5xG and everyone would be saying that’s nonsense for a penalty!

It’s the fact that players miss easy chances and that there are virtually no guaranteed goals that mean virtually all goals are scored from positions that have under one xG

[blackpoolhibs]

I'm baffled with these XG ratings, i just watch the games and see us score some goals and let some goals in.

I'd imagine most teams say they scored good goals, but also say they could/should have defended better for the goals they lost?

I will continue to trust my eyes when judging games and performances, good or bad.

[3pm]

I'm baffled with these XG ratings, i just watch the games and see us score some goals and let some goals in.

I'd imagine most teams say they scored good goals, but also say they could/should have defended better for the goals they lost?

I will continue to trust my eyes when judging games and performances, good or bad.

Funnily enough, I just read a post of yours from 2016 where you about trusting what you see. Was reading the thread from the PBS when Hanlon scored to make it 2-2. 😁

[blackpoolhibs]

Funnily enough, I just read a post of yours from 2016 where you about trusting what you see. Was reading the thread from the PBS when Hanlon scored to make it 2-2. 😁

Great day, we were behind the goal and even 2-0 down, myself and Bolton were convinced we would get back into the game. :thumbsup:

[matty_f]

I'm baffled with these XG ratings, i just watch the games and see us score some goals and let some goals in.

I'd imagine most teams say they scored good goals, but also say they could/should have defended better for the goals they lost?

I will continue to trust my eyes when judging games and performances, good or bad.

I tend to do the same, the xG and other stats can just be useful to back up or challenge that perception though.

[worcesterhibby]

I tend to do the same, the xG and other stats can just be useful to back up or challenge that perception though.

in tend to think that after 17 league games, you can place the stats in order of importance as follows:

1. position in the league table
2. Current direction of travel in the league table
3. goals scored ( relative to the teams around you)
4. goals conceded ( relative to the teams around you)

I never really bother looking at XG unless it’s posted on here.

right now we have a fair bit to be cautiously optimistic about, as all four of the above are relatively positive. No one wants us to be in the bottom 6, but at least the currently trajectory is upwards.
wouldnt it be wonderful if we could keep that going against Aberdeen, Hearts and Kilmarnock. Seven points from those three would change the whole feel of the season.

[Donegal Hibby]

Interesting article in the EEN ….

https://id.nationalworld.com/id/gm-sso?client_id=xxaDyidfpu&gm_sso_piano_id_domain=https%3A%2F%2Fid.nationalwo rld.com&site=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.edinburghnews.scotsman.com% 2Fsport%2Ffootball%2Fhibs%2Fhibs-beating-aberdeen-key-attacking-metrics-stats-add-up-crucial-win-granite-city-4917184&display_mode=redirect&gm_sso_redirect_container_width=500&page_view_id=m4wq1u0evtkxhjs8&page_title=Hibs%20are%20BEATING%20Aberdeen%20in%20 key%20attacking%20metrics%20-%20but%20will%20that%20add%20up%20to%20victory%3F&browser_id=m1jz5l0pr5r3mpvv&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.edinburghnews.scots man.com%2Fsport%2Ffootball%2Fhibs%2Fhibs-beating-aberdeen-key-attacking-metrics-stats-add-up-crucial-win-granite-city-4917184&gm_sso_confirm=after&user_state=anon

[easty]

Interesting article in the EEN ….

https://id.nationalworld.com/id/gm-sso?client_id=xxaDyidfpu&gm_sso_piano_id_domain=https%3A%2F%2Fid.nationalwo rld.com&site=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.edinburghnews.scotsman.com% 2Fsport%2Ffootball%2Fhibs%2Fhibs-beating-aberdeen-key-attacking-metrics-stats-add-up-crucial-win-granite-city-4917184&display_mode=redirect&gm_sso_redirect_container_width=500&page_view_id=m4wq1u0evtkxhjs8&page_title=Hibs%20are%20BEATING%20Aberdeen%20in%20 key%20attacking%20metrics%20-%20but%20will%20that%20add%20up%20to%20victory%3F&browser_id=m1jz5l0pr5r3mpvv&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.edinburghnews.scots man.com%2Fsport%2Ffootball%2Fhibs%2Fhibs-beating-aberdeen-key-attacking-metrics-stats-add-up-crucial-win-granite-city-4917184&gm_sso_confirm=after&user_state=anon

Tried to read it but that website is beyond intolerable.

Saw the first few lines, Hibs doing better than Aberdeen against some metrics.

Basically, shows you that stats mean/count for nothing.

[Donegal Hibby]

Tried to read it but that website is beyond intolerable.

Saw the first few lines, Hibs doing better than Aberdeen against some metrics.

Basically, shows you that stats mean/count for nothing.

I’d still rather have them than not TBH , remember Gray saying he’d be more concerned if we weren’t creating chances which is a fair comment . I like the fact we are creating and having more shots than other teams , if we can just be a bit more clinical now hopefully we’ll see more goals.

[allezsauzee]

I was aware that our xG difference was significantly better than our league position so I looked back at previous seasons on Footystats to see whether this actually has any bearing on our finishing position. The only year where our finishing position wasn't worse than our xG difference was the season we finished 3rd. Perhaps not coincidentally the only season I can remember where I felt we got a fair shake from officials. However we were usually only a position or two below where the stats suggested, and it seems to be a reasonable indicator of the finishing position of clubs. While obviously not a guarantee , it would suggest if we keep going as we are, we should eventually make the chances count and be able to get ourselves well away from the bottom of the table.