xG as a stat is overrated.

[Viva_Palmeiras]

Can we bin this stat as providing any useful insights? Did I read we are third in the league?

Happy to be educated but from what I understand it’s about being in a position on the pitch and the probability that a team will score.

For anyone that’s watched Hibs over the years (I started going to ER 1987) will testify the amount of times we get into positions yet we hear “X screws the ball over from
6 yards” probably explains a lot.

Should expected goals not be within a Hibs context and within a season? You get into a position with Sparky is a different prospect to Vente for example.

So stattos - educate / convince me I should believe in the the stat…

is there too much focus on it as a comfort blanket when you’ve pummeled a team only to see them steam up the park and sucker punch you?

What does this say? Defences and their systems are more effective and or attacking systems are blunted?

Genuine questions.

[Trinity Hibee]

It’s yet another stat used to keep people in jobs. Chocolate teapot comes to mind.

[HUTCHYHIBBY]

Seems to be one for the young team, never been involved in a pub conversation re football when it's ever been mentioned, I don't feel that I'm missing out on much.

[MWHIBBIES]

I mean, it is a useful stat. It is pretty clearly spot on in our case. We've only scored 1 less than the team in 3rd. We clearly do get into good positions and create good things. We are poor at finishing and cant defend and control a match, so we don't win them.

In a 1 off game, it isn't so good. Over 38 games, it does paint a picture.

[Not In The Know]

Its a loady pish.

Half chances in a certain area of the pitch.

Stats can be dressed up to say almost anything you want. High xG for us = *****, wide open defence and concede goals the first time the opposition attacks. Plus, in the the last minute of the game cause you have 5 attackers on, all up front spread across the pitch with nae cover at the back...

BS!!

[we are hibs]

.

[HendoDelivered]

Agreed wholeheartedly.




Sent from my SM-A405FN using Tapatalk

Yep, means plums.

[Tyler Durden]

It is useful.

For example - Florian Kamberi in his loan spell. He was massively outperforming his XG. At the time I thought he was just an amazing player but I saw some analyst who predicted that this was an anomaly and the following season the form would dip. Which was correct.

Someone like Theo Bair this season is similar. He won’t continue this rate of scoring.

In terms of what Monty said, I really don’t know what his point was (haven’t seen a detailed quote). From the stats I’ve seen if you look at the XG and the XG against, we are 7th. So pretty much the stats reflect what we’re seeing on the park. We’ve conceded more than we should have but then Monty tells us that Marshall is brilliant aswell

[Bostonhibby]

It’s yet another stat used to keep people in jobs. Chocolate teapot comes to mind.This is as near as I can get to applying this phenomenon to my club's current problem. Sure there's a place in life for properly used and rated statistics.

However at Hibs it feels like the various figures making the big decisions have mastered the principles around XG and other internal speak at the expense of the sort of nous that is required to identify a manager and players to enable us to beat St Johnstone at home and not get beat by Ross County too often?

We then prioritise this stuff above all else and end up employing broadly similar folk who talk the same crap.

Sent from my SM-A750FN using Tapatalk

[CapitalGreen]

It’s yet another stat used to keep people in jobs. Chocolate teapot comes to mind.

Who has been kept in a job because of xG?

[matty_f]

It is useful.

For example - Florian Kamberi in his loan spell. He was massively outperforming his XG. At the time I thought he was just an amazing player but I saw some analyst who predicted that this was an anomaly and the following season the form would dip. Which was correct.

Someone like Theo Bair this season is similar. He won’t continue this rate of scoring.

In terms of what Monty said, I really don’t know what his point was (haven’t seen a detailed quote). From the stats I’ve seen if you look at the XG and the XG against, we are 7th. So pretty much the stats reflect what we’re seeing on the park. We’ve conceded more than we should have but then Monty tells us that Marshall is brilliant aswell

It is useful but like practically every stat and bit of information, it's only as useful as the person interpreting it's understanding, and in isolation (again, like virtually any stat) it's almost useless. xG along with other metrics (your example is good, which includes the xG against) can be a good indicator of how good your team is performing even if the results don't back it up.

xG, over time (and with context) , can be a really good indicator of how a team will do.

[Trinity Hibee]

Who has been kept in a job because of xG?

I don’t mean at Hibs, I’m talking about analysts providing these pointless stats.

[MWHIBBIES]

I don’t mean at Hibs, I’m talking about analysts providing these pointless stats.

Which analysts though? The ones that all top clubs have and find essential? Or the twitter ones who aren't actually in any job?

[Paulie Walnuts]

It is useful.

For example - Florian Kamberi in his loan spell. He was massively outperforming his XG. At the time I thought he was just an amazing player but I saw some analyst who predicted that this was an anomaly and the following season the form would dip. Which was correct.

Someone like Theo Bair this season is similar. He won’t continue this rate of scoring.

In terms of what Monty said, I really don’t know what his point was (haven’t seen a detailed quote). From the stats I’ve seen if you look at the XG and the XG against, we are 7th. So pretty much the stats reflect what we’re seeing on the park. We’ve conceded more than we should have but then Monty tells us that Marshall is brilliant aswell

I’d been wondering about that.

When I heard he’d been going on about our xG and being third, I presumed he was considering xG and xG against. If he hasn’t been then I’ve no idea what point he thinks he’s making, as goals against are equally as important as goals for.

[Trinity Hibee]

Which analysts though? The ones that all top clubs have and find essential? Or the twitter ones who aren't actually in any job?

Both

[MWHIBBIES]

Both

Ah, right.

Every sport in the world has people who look at stats to improve performance. Don't think thats an accident.

[I'm Spartacus]

When this became a thing I got ripped on here for saying it was *****! We were hiding behind this "But the XG though?".

How many times have we seen games where the possession was 70/30, shots wildly imbalanced, and the team nicks a 1-0.

XG means **** all. Points win prizes kids.

[MWHIBBIES]

When this became a thing I got ripped on here for saying it was *****! We were hiding behind this "But the XG though?".

How many times have we seen games where the possession was 70/30, shots wildly imbalanced, and the team nicks a 1-0.

XG means **** all. Points win prizes kids.

A lot less than a dominant team winning comfortably.

[Viva_Palmeiras]

When this became a thing I got ripped on here for saying it was *****! We were hiding behind this "But the XG though?".

How many times have we seen games where the possession was 70/30, shots wildly imbalanced, and the team nicks a 1-0.

XG means **** all. Points win prizes kids.

there was some weird results in the WC I seem to remember that turned the stats on their heads.

The sense I got was defensive systems winning the battles heaping on pressure to service starved strikers also fluffy high-pressure spot kicks. Making some teams and players look ordinary.

[matty_f]

I think where things go wrong with data like xG is when coaches are clumsy with how they use it. For example, I heard of one coach who wouldn't let their team shoot if the chance was in an area where the xG would typically be below a certain value.

Their viewpoint was that it wasn't likely to get a goal so don't waste the possession, just recycle the ball until you create a better chance.

What they ended up with was a team that got into decent positions but never shot and the team played for stats rather than goals, and they lost the creativity and spontaneity that comes with players weighing up the chance for themselves.

So xG tells you if you're good enough to create good chances in a game, but you stop scoring half chances or speculative chances that you need to win games.

It's not the data that is the problem, it's how is used or interpreted.

[Stevie Reid]

I’m not a fan of its prevalence in conversations these days, but as others have said, when set in the right context it does seem meaningful.

I might be wrong, but I think I’d read last season, when we were really struggling under LJ, that our XG difference implied that we should be much further up the table - and obviously we did climb the league a fair bit towards the end of the season.

I’d certainly give it a lot more weight than possession stats which get trotted out by managers all the time, and in isolation, mean nothing.

[Scouse Hibee]

I thought we had signed a Chinese player!

[Dmas]

I like it I think there is definitely a place in the game for analytical data, however it’s use is to measure performance, you can’t be at 36 games in a season and only use Xg for as some sort of praise of team performance or to back up your methods are working, as has been pointed out Xg against is poor, if we are to ever sort out our defensive issues it will probably come at a cost of creativity going forward initially anyway, really unsure what point NM was trying to make with that you’d have to blind not to realise we are a nightmare defensively and a lot of that is because we have at least 4 players in the team every week who offer no defensive quality to the team

[Aldo]

Pumped 0-4 at home and dropped to 9th. Aye but our Xg.

There is absolutely nothing positive from that in my books.

[Clarence]

I remember when I was a lad and would see older people just refuse to even engage with a new thing. Be it programming the video machine to record at some point in the future or predictive texting, they just just decided it wasn’t for them and wouldn’t even try. Whatever this xG is, it’s my first one of those situations I think. Not interested.

[Winston Ingram]

Can we bin this stat as providing any useful insights? Did I read we are third in the league?

Happy to be educated but from what I understand it’s about being in a position on the pitch and the probability that a team will score.

For anyone that’s watched Hibs over the years (I started going to ER 1987) will testify the amount of times we get into positions yet we hear “X screws the ball over from
6 yards” probably explains a lot.

Should expected goals not be within a Hibs context and within a season? You get into a position with Sparky is a different prospect to Vente for example.

So stattos - educate / convince me I should believe in the the stat…

is there too much focus on it as a comfort blanket when you’ve pummeled a team only to see them steam up the park and sucker punch you?

What does this say? Defences and their systems are more effective and or attacking systems are blunted?

Genuine questions.

It's purpose is to calculate the the quality of your goalscoring opportunities and like all stats, it's just to be used as a guide and only tells part of the story. I like it and I thought it was a pretty valuable stat when detailing the failings of Monty's possession based 442. I think were averaging an xG of less than .5 a game and I felt at the time it was fairly accurate as we created very little playing that way.

Anyway, here's how it works -


Shot Data: Every shot taken during a match is analyzed based on its characteristics, such as the position of the shooter, the type of shot, and the number of defenders between the shooter and the goal.

Historical Data: Statistical models are developed using historical data from thousands of shots to determine the likelihood of a shot resulting in a goal based on its specific characteristics.

xG Value: Each shot is assigned an xG value between 0 and 1, representing the probability of that shot being scored. For example, a shot with an xG of 0.2 means it has a 20% chance of resulting in a goal.

Cumulative xG: Throughout a match, the xG values of all shots taken by a team are added up to provide a cumulative xG value. This metric helps assess how well a team is creating goal-scoring opportunities.