Next UK GE (by January 2025)

[JeMeSouviens]

This week in "FFS, British public, WTF do you think you're up to?" :confused::rolleyes:




Deltapoll @DeltapollUK

🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead is ten points in latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 35% (+8)
Lab 45% (-5)
Lib Dem 7% (-2)
Other 13% (-2)

Fieldwork: 17th - 20th March 2023
Sample: 1,054 GB adults
(Changes from 10th - 13th March 2023)

[Ozyhibby]

This week in "FFS, British public, WTF do you think you're up to?" :confused::rolleyes:

Labour thinking things are in the bag are being a bit presumptuous in my mind. Sunak as incumbent has a lot of power to shape things over next 18 months.


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[Mibbes Aye]

Labour thinking things are in the bag are being a bit presumptuous in my mind. Sunak as incumbent has a lot of power to shape things over next 18 months.


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No presumptions I think you will find. As the research shows, incumbents narrow the gap when things become more focused. Nothing will be getting taken for granted and there will be short shrift for self-indulgence or losing discipline.

[Stairway 2 7]

Thought we weren't doing single polls, other 3 polls this week had Labour growing the gap

electpoliticsuk
·
8h
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 45% (+3)
CON: 20% (-3)
GRN: 13% (+3)
LDM: 9% (+1)
REF: 6% (-1)
SNP: 5% (+1)

Via
@PeoplePolling
, On 17 March,
Changes w/ 8 March.

[Kato]

Labour thinking things are in the bag are being a bit presumptuous in my mind. Sunak as incumbent has a lot of power to shape things over next 18 months.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkThere's a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and the GE.

Who knows what tack will be taken by then and what events will happen or be manufactured.

Remember the Tory chairman has already said they will fight the election on "the culture wars", ie meaningless crap that distracts the electorate, and they have fine tuned that to the nth degree. They are expert in these and have the heavy hitting mass media tools at their disposal to make traction. They even made people believe we'd be better off outside the EU, that Teresa May was "strong and stable" and have people think Liz Truss was a viable prime minister rather than an imbecilic rube. Already the "competant", "grown up" "safe pair of hands" message on Sunak has started.

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[grunt]

SNP: 5% (+1):greengrin

[Kato]

No presumptions I think you will find. As the research shows, incumbents narrow the gap when things become more focused. Nothing will be getting taken for granted and there will be short shrift for self-indulgence or losing discipline.

Said Neil Kinnock way back when.

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[Mibbes Aye]

Indeed. The press won’t have the same destructive force nowadays though. The Telegraph gave over a column space to Analiese Dods yesterday that was pretty much a party political, describing how middle-aged women would be better supported by Labour in terms of careers, caring and health.

They are not completely sold on the Tories at the moment and even ambivalence from them will help.

[archie]

Labour thinking things are in the bag are being a bit presumptuous in my mind. Sunak as incumbent has a lot of power to shape things over next 18 months.


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Thet aren't thinking that. Which explains every time someone on here says why won't Labour do blah blah blah.

[neil7908]

I can honestly see the Tories scrapping a win here, or if Labour are the biggest party it will be a narrow margin, making Starmers job even harder.

The country is down the toilet but I suspect by the next election things will have improved. Not anywhere near enough to undo the damage they have done in power but inflation will be down, the economy will be growing again and that will be enough for all the usual suspects in the press to get behind them again. Throw in lots of nonsense culture wars about trans rights, refugees etc and I think Labour will have their work cut out.

It will be a real test of Starmers ability.

[Ozyhibby]

I can honestly see the Tories scrapping a win here, or if Labour are the biggest party it will be a narrow margin, making Starmers job even harder.

The country is down the toilet but I suspect by the next election things will have improved. Not anywhere near enough to undo the damage they have done in power but inflation will be down, the economy will be growing again and that will be enough for all the usual suspects in the press to get behind them again. Throw in lots of nonsense culture wars about trans rights, refugees etc and I think Labour will have their work cut out.

It will be a real test of Starmers ability.

Don’t let Labour ruin our recovery. Enough people will buy that to make it closer than it looks right now.


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[Glory Lurker]

No chance Labour blow it from here.

[Ozyhibby]

No chance Labour blow it from here.

I don’t think they need to blow it as such. I just think it will get closer as we get close to the GE. It’s about how much the Tories can get their voters to show up on the day. Another 18 months of Sunak being boring and doing Tory things without scandal and their grassroots could be in a different place.


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[Stairway 2 7]

It would take an unprecedented swing in the polls for them to win. The odds are on a labour majority but I think it might just be Labour most seats, them winning seats in Scotland could sway things

[Ozyhibby]

It would take an unprecedented swing in the polls for them to win. The odds are on a labour majority but I think it might just be Labour most seats, them winning seats in Scotland could sway things

How many seats are Labour second in?


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[SHODAN]

This'll be people going "oh, it's just David Cameron again, fair enough won't vote."

[Stairway 2 7]

How many seats are Labour second in?


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I'm no rainman mate, no sure ha. Seen polling that shows Labour wins all the red wall and lib dems and Labour take a number of blue wall. Still early days though

[Smartie]

No chance Labour blow it from here.

2 words - shy Tories.

When push comes to shove and it's a time to place the tick in the box, it's amazing how much dishonesty, corruption, immigration policy bordering on fascism and vile double standards people will stomach if they're given a robust argument that by placing a tick in a different box that they might end up a little bit poorer.

[Stairway 2 7]

What tories won't like is Farage doing alot of press today for the reform Party. He's a bam but so are many of their voters. Thing whilst Cameron wouldn't touch him he wouldn't look out of place in this government beside Suella and 50p Lee

[JeMeSouviens]

Thought we weren't doing single polls, other 3 polls this week had Labour growing the gap

electpoliticsuk
·
8h
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 45% (+3)
CON: 20% (-3)
GRN: 13% (+3)
LDM: 9% (+1)
REF: 6% (-1)
SNP: 5% (+1)

Via
@PeoplePolling
, On 17 March,
Changes w/ 8 March.


Yeah, but that will be pre-budget fieldwork, the one above is post. Yes, it's just one poll and you're right, we need to wait and see if a trend develops, but it was just so horrific I had a knee jerk reaction. My bad.

[JeMeSouviens]

I'm no rainman mate, no sure ha. Seen polling that shows Labour wins all the red wall and lib dems and Labour take a number of blue wall. Still early days though

I think Ozy's point was you mentioned Scottish seats. If Lab wins here they will take seats from the SNP. The SNP are the only ones with a chance of removing the rump of Tories.

[Stairway 2 7]

I think Ozy's point was you mentioned Scottish seats. If Lab wins here they will take seats from the SNP. The SNP are the only ones with a chance of removing the rump of Tories.

Think Labour will be targeting both snp and tories in Scotland. Very early days though alot will happen in 18 months, hopefully SNP have sorted their act out

[JeMeSouviens]

Think Labour will be targeting both snp and tories in Scotland. Very early days though alot will happen in 18 months, hopefully SNP have sorted their act out

In the 6 Tory held seats, Lab is absolutely nowhere. Lost deposits more likely than gains.

[Santa Cruz]

I'm no rainman mate, no sure ha. Seen polling that shows Labour wins all the red wall and lib dems and Labour take a number of blue wall. Still early days though

Missed this until I noticed it in a quoted post. Very witty, made me lol. :top marks

[Stairway 2 7]

In the 6 Tory held seats, Lab is absolutely nowhere. Lost deposits more likely than gains.

Haven't really looked in detail. Hopefully SNP can knock up the farming vote maybe highlight brexit

[archie]

In the 6 Tory held seats, Lab is absolutely nowhere. Lost deposits more likely than gains.

I agree. Labour has to target SNP seats here, many of which have very tight majorities.

[JeMeSouviens]

Haven't really looked in detail. Hopefully SNP can knock up the farming vote maybe highlight brexit

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_scot.html

Prediction based on current polling. Lab take 11 seats from SNP. SNP take 2 Tories and 1 Lib.

[Stairway 2 7]

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_scot.html

Prediction based on current polling. Lab take 11 seats from SNP. SNP take 2 Tories and 1 Lib.

Think that will swing back to snp a bit

[archie]

Think that will swing back to snp a bit

Why?

[Stairway 2 7]

Why?

Pretty much always the polls tighten back to the incumbent

[archie]

Pretty much always the polls tighten back to the incumbent

I just think a lot will have changed. New leaders for the main parties, bogey man Johnson gone, potential Labour win, etc.

[Stairway 2 7]

I just think a lot will have changed. New leaders for the main parties, bogey man Johnson gone, potential Labour win, etc.

It's definitely a very unusual election

[Ozyhibby]

I just think a lot will have changed. New leaders for the main parties, bogey man Johnson gone, potential Labour win, etc.

Johnson only arrived in 2019?


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[archie]

Johnson only arrived in 2019?


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Yes. And won the general election.

[Pagan Hibernia]

Did Labour peak too early?

[archie]

Did Labour peak too early?

I don't think Labour peaked as such. The Johnson/Truss debacle hit hard. Sunak is a harder target to hit. There hasn't really been a concerted Labour campaign. Indeed you wouldn't expect one until much nearer the time.

[Mibbes Aye]

I don't think Labour peaked as such. The Johnson/Truss debacle hit hard. Sunak is a harder target to hit. There hasn't really been a concerted Labour campaign. Indeed you wouldn't expect one until much nearer the time.

Was about to post similar. Frustrating for some people as it has been, at this stage of the electoral cycle it has made far more sense strategically and tactically to let the news be dominated by never-ending incompetence, mendacity and misanthropy from the Tories. Where Labour has pushed for policy changes the Tories have often as not caved in anyway.

Far better to do the hard yards now and avoid putting up lots of policy to be misrepresented and torn to shreds for the next eighteen months.

Interestingly, on QT last week they had a former head of the CBI and non-exec chair of a few big companies. He was scathing about the Tories and positive about Labour. Winning those battles now creates the narrative of inevitable victory and that paves the way to proper electoral success. Then the party has the licence to kick off with the real business around tackling child poverty, social injustice, fractured communities etc

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230321/ed31f72d71d232ef868d933c95e11b4e.jpg


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[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1638226510950572053?s=46&t=3pb_w_qndxJXScFNwz8V4A


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[neil7908]

https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1638226510950572053?s=46&t=3pb_w_qndxJXScFNwz8V4A


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It's actually going to happen isn't it? They are going to stay in power again

[Mibbes Aye]

It's actually going to happen isn't it? They are going to stay in power again

Jesus wept. It’s a one-off question asked in a group of Tory-held seats. The next question gives Sunak an approval rating of minus 21 compared to Starmer on plus 5.

It’s the first poll by this company since the Budget I think, which is a set-piece for whoever is in power to inject some bounce into their polling. Yet Rachel Reeves came out as a better Chancellor than Jeremy Hunt!

Rest easy Neil. As of today Sunak is going to be fielding so much •••• from the ERG that they will be putting him on a green lane with his green card back to Malibu 😀

[Ozyhibby]

It's actually going to happen isn't it? They are going to stay in power again

I don’t think that will happen but I think Sunak will drag it back closer. Maybe hung parliament.
I think that the way a lot of seats work, Labour need a big win in percentage terms just to get more seats than the Tories never mind a majority.


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[archie]

I don’t think that will happen but I think Sunak will drag it back closer. Maybe hung parliament.
I think that the way a lot of seats work, Labour need a big win in percentage terms just to get more seats than the Tories never mind a majority.


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I think that's maybe what you want to happen. Perhaps this is because a credible Labour campaign will pull votes from the SNP?

[Ozyhibby]

I think that's maybe what you want to happen. Perhaps this is because a credible Labour campaign will pull votes from the SNP?

We’re a long way from a credible Labour campaign. [emoji23]
In the mean time, I’m only parroting what a lot of analysts who have looked at the numbers have said. The boundary changes the Tories brought in heavily favour them. Add in a bit of voter ID nonsense.
Don’t take my word for it though, look it up.


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[neil7908]

We’re a long way from a credible Labour campaign. [emoji23]
In the mean time, I’m only parroting what a lot of analysts who have looked at the numbers have said. The boundary changes the Tories brought in heavily favour them. Add in a bit of voter ID nonsense.
Don’t take my word for it though, look it up.


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Indeed. Is the credible Labour campaign the one that shows Starmers rating as +5 after 3 years in power?

[Mibbes Aye]

We’re a long way from a credible Labour campaign. [emoji23]
In the mean time, I’m only parroting what a lot of analysts who have looked at the numbers have said. The boundary changes the Tories brought in heavily favour them. Add in a bit of voter ID nonsense.
Don’t take my word for it though, look it up.


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Voter ID has the potential for mishap though to an extent every party should have enough time to be doing everything it can in that regard. Plus I’m sure the Tories accused Labour of being at it with postal votes before, so we will find a way :greengrin

The changes were put forward by the Boundary Commission. It is, at least in theory, an impartial public body. To be honest their changes do sit easily with the social trends that you would expect to be relevant. I’m certainly not crying over them.

I think the sum of the analyses I have seen points to a mean and net gain for the Tories of around ten. That includes some marginals though. The analyses don’t really cover the potential for surge Lib Dem voting in seats in the South (combination of maxing their core support, pulling in disaffected soft Tories, pulling in some Labour voters prepared to go tactical).

The other factor is whether Reform has any traction. If the EU/Windsor/ECHR/ECJ debacle continues and there is every reason to expect it will, then they will be good to shave off one, two, maybe even three thousand votes from the Tories in a number of seats.

That pushes the Tories right and isolationist to counter. Which then costs them votes in the middle.

Anyway, at the end of the day, if Labour are patient, keep building the narrative of ‘sensible government-in-waiting’ and make sure the electorate know that it’s not a party fronted by an incoherent incompetent like Corbyn, propped up by swivel-head loons who think ‘keeping it real’ means suffering the worst defeat in nearly 100 years - if Labour can do all that, then going up against this bunch of despicable liars and criminals should be fine.

An extra ten Tory MPs wouldn’t have made a difference, not one iota, the last three times Labour won a GE.

[Mibbes Aye]

Indeed. Is the credible Labour campaign the one that shows Starmers rating as +5 after 3 years in power?

Plus anything is great, coming after the damage caused by the charlatan Corbyn and his band of fakes and entryists.

[JeMeSouviens]

There have been 4 more polls since that shocker of a delta poll. Movements of each vs the previous poll by the same firm:

Techne - Lab lead down 2 to 15
PeoplePolling - Lab lead down 4 to 21
YouGov - Lab lead up 7 to 26
Survation - Lab lead down 1 to 15

So mixed but nothing else backing up my OP panic - apols for that. :rolleyes: