Covid and lockdown - an interesting perspective

[archie]

Not sure what to make of this, but it got me thinking https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/12/price-britain-paid-lockdown-colossal-alternative-recession-austerity-stagnation

[Stairway 2 7]

Not sure what to make of this, but it got me thinking https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/12/price-britain-paid-lockdown-colossal-alternative-recession-austerity-stagnation

Obviously lockdowns and furlough was going to effect us for a decade, more than brexit has. But there simply was no other option pre vaccination. The estimate now is 500,000 would have died without a strong lockdown. That simply isn't acceptable and all financial burden was worth it.

On the other hand It seems England were correct to stay open when we closed in the final lockdown. Hindsight is a good thing and it was never an easy choice

[grunt]

Not sure what to make of this, but it got me thinking https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/12/price-britain-paid-lockdown-colossal-alternative-recession-austerity-stagnation

1. It's Larry Elliott, who doesn't seem to have got a single thing right in years.

2. Article on why the UK economy is flatlining, and not a single mention of Brexit. Not. A. Single. Mention.

The man is an idiot. Pay no attention to him.

[grunt]

On the other hand It seems England were correct to stay open when we closed in the final lockdown. Hindsight is a good thing and it was never an easy choice
Yeah we should have gambled with people's lives like the Tories did in England. No thanks.

[archie]

Yeah we should have gambled with people's lives like the Tories did in England. No thanks.

But weren't the responses broadly aligned?

[archie]

1. It's Larry Elliott, who doesn't seem to have got a single thing right in years.

2. Article on why the UK economy is flatlining, and not a single mention of Brexit. Not. A. Single. Mention.

The man is an idiot. Pay no attention to him.

So you don't think lockdown had an impact on the economy and wider society?

[Stairway 2 7]

Yeah we should have gambled with people's lives like the Tories did in England. No thanks.

It was roughly the same but Scotland had more excess deaths. Its not a gamble its believing in vaccines, it wasn't an easy decision but England was obviously proved right.

I personally think the first three lockdowns were too late and too light in Scotland. Post vaccination that changed and the Scottish public stepped up and ignored the noise.

[archie]

It was roughly the same but Scotland had more excess deaths. Its not a gamble its believing in vaccines, it wasn't an easy decision but England was obviously proved right.

I personally think the first three lockdowns were too late and too light in Scotland. Post vaccination that changed and the Scottish public stepped up and ignored the noise.

TBH I have huge sympathy for all politicians having to make these really tough decisions based on limited information and at breakneck speed.

[Stairway 2 7]

TBH I have huge sympathy for all politicians having to make these really tough decisions based on limited information and at breakneck speed.

Definitely it was awful and there was no playback, hindsight is great as I said

[Smartie]

TBH I have huge sympathy for all politicians having to make these really tough decisions based on limited information and at breakneck speed.

I don’t envy them although that’s the life they chose.

You don’t (or you certainly shouldn’t) go into that line of work if you’re not prepared to make tough decisions with terrible consequences for other people if you get them wrong.

There’s a whole world of mundane with less by way of rewards out there if it’s not for you.

[Kato]

TBH I have huge sympathy for all politicians having to make these really tough decisions based on limited information and at breakneck speed.When Johnson said, just before the first lock down, "maybe people shouldn't go to the pub" the signs were there that he had the relevant information but wasn't a leader.

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[grunt]

So you don't think lockdown had an impact on the economy and wider society?I never said it didn't. But to start your article with ...
The UK economy is flatlining and has been for the best part of a year. Recovery after the deep slump of 2020 has petered out. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and higher taxes are all exacting a toll. ... and not to mention Brexit anywhere in the article is disingenuous at best, more likely deliberately avoiding the topic.

I wonder why he's discussing the economic decline of the UK and not mentioning Brexit? Could it be that he was a fervent Brexiter and cannot own up to the fruits of his own labour?

https://www.spiked-online.com/2018/10/19/the-establishment-is-trying-to-keep-us-in-the-eu/

Here's an example (from that Spiked article) about his laser focused clear thinking about the benefits of Brexit:


The big opportunity is just to do things differently. Big economic shocks give you the space and the ability to say, hang on, the status quo is no longer a valid option, we want to do something different.

He's a fraud, like all the other Brexiters. I've no time for him and if I were King, he'd be in jail.

[archie]

I don’t envy them although that’s the life they chose.

You don’t (or you certainly shouldn’t) go into that line of work if you’re not prepared to make tough decisions with terrible consequences for other people if you get them wrong.

There’s a whole world of mundane with less by way of rewards out there if it’s not for you.
I agree to a point, but they didn't have many of the basic tools needed to make these critical decisions.

[Kato]

I agree to a point, but they didn't have many of the basic tools needed to make these critical decisions.What do you mean by "basic tools"?

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[grunt]

What do you mean by "basic tools"?

Respect for scientific advice and empathy for the population are two things lacking from Johnson's Covid response.

[Smartie]

I agree to a point, but they didn't have many of the basic tools needed to make these critical decisions.

That’s the nature of the beast though.

Nobody has a crystal ball but a decent set of morals and a willingness to listen, think, decide, and learn on your feet is the best you can hope for.

A certain amount of pain, death and suffering was unavoidable but I’m still pretty sure that had Boris had a bit more to him then we’d have fared better than we did.

[archie]

What do you mean by "basic tools"?

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Key decision should be underpinned with access to detailed information, option appraisal, analysis of the impact of these options, and a shared understanding of outcomes. All of these need time, which wasn't available.

[archie]

That’s the nature of the beast though.

Nobody has a crystal ball but a decent set of morals and a willingness to listen, think, decide, and learn on your feet is the best you can hope for.

A certain amount of pain, death and suffering was unavoidable but I’m still pretty sure that had Boris had a bit more to him then we’d have fared better than we did. Interested in your view as to what he should have done?

[archie]

I never said it didn't. But to start your article with ... ... and not to mention Brexit anywhere in the article is disingenuous at best, more likely deliberately avoiding the topic.

I wonder why he's discussing the economic decline of the UK and not mentioning Brexit? Could it be that he was a fervent Brexiter and cannot own up to the fruits of his own labour?

https://www.spiked-online.com/2018/10/19/the-establishment-is-trying-to-keep-us-in-the-eu/

Here's an example (from that Spiked article) about his laser focused clear thinking about the benefits of Brexit:



He's a fraud, like all the other Brexiters. I've no time for him and if I were King, he'd be in jail.
OK, but the focus was on COVID. I think it's legitimate to look at the impact COVID strategies had. Don't you? I've traveled fairly extensively in the last year, and a common feature has been inflation and staff shortages. This is also affecting EU countries. You don't shut down countries without there being long term consequences. I think it was the right decision, but if we face something like COVID again we need to assess what happened and whether it was right. It's worth noting that not all EU countries took the same approach, with Sweden being a notable outlier.

On a broader point, it will be interesting to see what the various COVID inquiries come up with.

On your point about jailing people with differing views - I'm assuming that's a joke?

[Kato]

Key decision should be underpinned with access to detailed information, option appraisal, analysis of the impact of these options, and a shared understanding of outcomes. All of these need time, which wasn't available.Why didn't they invoke their own modelling, Operation Signet, earlier?

We knew by late January early February that it was airborne yet at the same time Matt Hancock was standing up in the HoC saying " it would not affect these islands"?

Why did Johnson say "maybe don't go to the pub"?

IMHO - What we had, and still have, was a Govt who birthed Brexit on the back of lies and gaslighting. That is their "basic tools" - so when met with anything, never mind a global pandemic, they apply what they have in their limited toolbox. Add to that their drip-drip rhetoric of "people have had enough of experts" and you can only assume they are confidence tricksters.

"We just let it sweep through the population", was our Prime Minister's first opinion in invoking a gross distortion of herd immunity. IE - do nothing, which I suppose is one of his basic tools when met with difficult circumstances.

As a country we lacked the basic tools as simple matters of national security have been set aside for decades in order to maximise profit, in every area of life.

Not saying it was easy but it is made far more difficult when you have a Govt which lacks any and all aspects of leadership and whose main motive is to maximise the monetisation of everything in favour of themselves and their supporters.

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[grunt]

Key decision should be underpinned with access to detailed information, option appraisal, analysis of the impact of these options, and a shared understanding of outcomes. All of these need time, which wasn't available.
Are you suggesting they should therefore not have acted?

[archie]

Are you suggesting they should therefore not have acted?

Of course not.

[archie]

Why didn't they invoke their own modelling, Operation Signet, earlier?

We knew by late January early February that it was airborne yet at the same time Matt Hancock was standing up in the HoC saying " it would not affect these islands"?

Why did Johnson say "maybe don't go to the pub"?

IMHO - What we had, and still have, was a Govt who birthed Brexit on the back of lies and gaslighting. That is their "basic tools" - so when met with anything, never mind a global pandemic, they apply what they have in their limited toolbox. Add to that their drip-drip rhetoric of "people have had enough of experts" and you can only assume they are confidence tricksters.

"We just let it sweep through the population", was our Prime Minister's first opinion in invoking a gross distortion of herd immunity. IE - do nothing, which I suppose is one of his basic tools when met with difficult circumstances.

As a country we lacked the basic tools as simple matters of national security have been set aside for decades in order to maximise profit, in every area of life.

Not saying it was easy but it is made far more difficult when you have a Govt which lacks any and all aspects of leadership and whose main motive is to maximise the monetisation of everything in favour of themselves and their supporters.

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OK. I think you are determined to push a UKG bad narrative here. But to try and move it on, what countries do you think got it right?

[grunt]

Of course not.
In that case I'm sorry but I don't understand what you're getting at.

[archie]

In that case I'm sorry but I don't understand what you're getting at.

The point is that all politicians had to make quick decisions based on imperfect information. In an ideal world, if you were considering lockdown you would want to understand the positive impact - reducing infections and managing stress on the health services vs the negative impacts on the economy, other health issues, mental health etc etc. They didn't have that info so had to go with what they had. UK was pretty aligned. Places like Sweden took a different tack. But I think politicians and policy makers did their best.

[James310]

When Johnson said, just before the first lock down, "maybe people shouldn't go to the pub" the signs were there that he had the relevant information but wasn't a leader.

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We were told to hug our granny from Jason Leitch, possibly the worst thing you could do.

[grunt]

The point is that all politicians had to make quick decisions based on imperfect information. In an ideal world, if you were considering lockdown you would want to understand the positive impact - reducing infections and managing stress on the health services vs the negative impacts on the economy, other health issues, mental health etc etc. They didn't have that info so had to go with what they had. UK was pretty aligned. Places like Sweden took a different tack. But I think politicians and policy makers did their best.
Thank you. The problem we had was that the politicians making the decisions in the UK were both dismissive of the scientific and medical advice and they had their own libertarian views on both how individuals should cope with disease, and about the (minimal) level of support that should be provided by the state. Add to that some appalling decision making (cf Matt Hancock) and you have the recipe for a disaster. Tens of thousands of the UK population lost their lives because of the poor quality of this Conservative administration.

[grunt]

We were told to hug our granny from Jason Leitch, possibly the worst thing you could do.
Hindsight playing a huge part in your response here. He said this on 10 March 2020, when very little was known about the disease. But sure, flail him alive with your 20:20 hindsight.

[archie]

Thank you. The problem we had was that the politicians making the decisions in the UK were both dismissive of the scientific and medical advice and they had their own libertarian views on both how individuals should cope with disease, and about the (minimal) level of support that should be provided by the state. Add to that some appalling decision making (cf Matt Hancock) and you have the recipe for a disaster. Tens of thousands of the UK population lost their lives because of the poor quality of this Conservative administration.
So what would you have done differently?

[grunt]

So what would you have done differently?I would have listened to the advice I was given, and I would have had a better team around me. The reason there are so many incompetents in this Tory administration is because of Johnson sacking all those who wouldn't go along with his Brexit lies. Those incompetents mean we were 5-0 down and with no subs on the bench when the virus hit. We have the worst Government in place than I have seen in my entire life.

[Kato]

OK. I think you are determined to push a UKG bad narrative here. But to try and move it on, what countries do you think got it right?Push a UKG=bad narrative?

Moi!

Archie. Shifting the question to other countries when it is your assertion that our country lacked the basic tools and factual examples of basic tools are presented to you isn't me having an agenda ( confession dear reader, I have and you darn tooting I have) its you avoiding those facts and questions. You are an informed and eloquent poster and that particular attempt at pivoting the discussion is beneath you.

If you want to start another discussion about other countries feel free.

Here is another couple of examples of "basic tools".

We had and have a very good working method of track and trace which has been part of the NHS for decades. Why start another, private concern billions of pounds to build another, which took valuable months to start up, when we could have expanded the NHS tool at a fraction of the cost?

Why, when we had many companies who were expert and reliable in obtaining PPE, did we ignore those companies in favour of start-ups who just happened to be chums of the Govt?

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[Kato]

We were told to hug our granny from Jason Leitch, possibly the worst thing you could do.Agreed

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[Kato]

The point is that all politicians had to make quick decisions based on imperfect information. In an ideal world, if you were considering lockdown you would want to understand the positive impact - reducing infections and managing stress on the health services vs the negative impacts on the economy, other health issues, mental health etc etc. They didn't have that info so had to go with what they had. UK was pretty aligned. Places like Sweden took a different tack. But I think politicians and policy makers did their best.In all honesty that is laughable.

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[archie]

In all honesty that is laughable.

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Care to say which bit and why?

[Stairway 2 7]

Hindsight playing a huge part in your response here. He said this on 10 March 2020, when very little was known about the disease. But sure, flail him alive with your 20:20 hindsight.

Your doing the same to the Westminster government, he didn't know they didn't know. They probably did roughly the best they could with the balancing act. I certainly think Scotland and England locked down to late though. Excess deaths were similar in Scotland and England and similar to many in Europe.

https://mobile.twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1502227961084264450?lang=en

@drraghibali
V. important paper published in the Lancet - the first peer-reviewed global estimates of excess deaths (the most reliable way to compare Covid deaths) over first 2 years of pandemic with findings that will surprise many & correct five widespread misconceptions / assumptions

Far from the UK having the worst death rate in Europe (or even Western Europe) as many still think, it is actually 29th in Europe & 9th in Western Europe - below the Western European average & at the same level as France & Germany (no statistically significant difference

W. Europe: 140.0 (133.5-146.3)
Italy: 227.4 (212.0-242.5)
Portugal: 202.2 (190.7-212.2)
Spain: 186.7 (181.3-191.5)
Belgium: 146.6 (135.8-156.3)
Netherlands: 140.0 (131.3-147.6)
UK: 126.8(122.3-130.9) Eng. 125.8(122.1-128.7)
France: 124.2 (120.5-127.7)
Germany: 120.5 (115.1-125.1)

. Even the misleading claim that many still make that the UK had the highest death toll based on absolute numbers (which is obviously mainly determined by the population size) is now wrong:

Italy: 259000
Germany : 203000
UK: 169000 (England: 142000)
Spain: 162000
France: 155000

England hasn't had a higher death rate than other home nations: all are basically the same level with no statistically significant difference:

England: 125.8 (122.1 - 128.7)
Northern Ireland: 131.8 (101.6 - 165.0)
Scotland: 130.6 (115.7 - 145.1)
Wales: 135.5 (121.9 - 147.5

[grunt]

Your doing the same to the Westminster government, he didn't know they didn't know. They probably did roughly the best they could with the balancing act. I certainly think Scotland and England locked down too late though. Excess deaths were similar in Scotland and England and similar to many in Europe.
Not so. On 10 March I was still travelling around the country, at work and meeting with clients and staff as usual. We were all looking at Italy and wondering what was going on, but on that day - 10 March - Jason Leitch was giving the same advice as all scientific advisers, as far as I know.

My description of the failings of the UK Govt stems from their actions over the next weeks and months.

It's not the same at all.

[archie]

Push a UKG=bad narrative?

Moi!

Archie. Shifting the question to other countries when it is your assertion that our country lacked the basic tools and factual examples of basic tools are presented to you isn't me having an agenda ( confession dear reader, I have and you darn tooting I have) its you avoiding those facts and questions. You are an informed and eloquent poster and that particular attempt at pivoting the discussion is beneath you.

If you want to start another discussion about other countries feel free.

Here is another couple of examples of "basic tools".

We had and have a very good working method of track and trace which has been part of the NHS for decades. Why start another, private concern billions of pounds to build another, which took valuable months to start up, when we could have expanded the NHS tool at a fraction of the cost?

Why, when we had many companies who were expert and reliable in obtaining PPE, did we ignore those companies in favour of start-ups who just happened to be chums of the Govt?

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OK - a lot to unpack here. I didn't say UK lacked basic tools. I said all politicians. The reason I asked for examples from other countries was to understand who you think did it right? You suggest that the existing NHS system track and trace system was fine. I think that's highly questionable. Also, on PPE - you do recall the worldwide shortage? None of that is to excuse corruption or bad decision making, but that will come out in the various COVID inquiries and, if appropriate, the courts. I know you want to push UK bad, but that's why I asked who you thought got it right.

[Stairway 2 7]

Not so. On 10 March I was still travelling around the country, at work and meeting with clients and staff as usual. We were all looking at Italy and wondering what was going on, but on that day - 10 March - Jason Leitch was giving the same advice as all scientific advisers, as far as I know.

My description of the failings of the UK Govt stems from their actions over the next weeks and months.

It's not the same at all.

Outcome was the same, excess deaths the same and better than most of Europe

[grunt]

You suggest that the existing NHS system track and trace system was fine. I think that's highly questionable.
Why do you say this? The NHS had an existing, experienced track and trace team. Obviously, that team would have needed to be expanded given the scale of the pandemic. Instead the UK Govt outsourced it to their mates, ignored the knowledge and experience of the NHS, and their mates staffed the programme with people off the street. UK track and trace was an absolute disaster, and we will never discover where that money went.

[Kato]

OK - a lot to unpack here. I didn't say UK lacked basic tools. I said all politicians. The reason I asked for examples from other countries was to understand who you think did it right? You suggest that the existing NHS system track and trace system was fine. I think that's highly questionable. Also, on PPE - you do recall the worldwide shortage? None of that is to excuse corruption or bad decision making, but that will come out in the various COVID inquiries and, if appropriate, the courts. I know you want to push UK bad, but that's why I asked who you thought got it right.

Basic tools in this country existed - Information and statistics from experts, a track and trace mechanism (can you provide evidence that the competence of the track and trace programmes for STD's within the were "highly questionable) and well contected PPE companies all existed.

You claim they did not.

The claim I find laughable is that this Govt did the best they could.

Why did Johnson say "maybe it's better if you don't go to the pub" ?


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[grunt]

Outcome was the same, excess deaths the same and better than most of EuropeIrrelevant. I lost friends during Covid, and every death caused by the inadequacy of the UK Government was one more than should have died. I've no knowledge of how other countries managed the pandemic and I'm not commenting on them.

[Stairway 2 7]

Irrelevant. I lost friends during Covid, and every death caused by the inadequacy of the UK Government was one more than should have died. I've no knowledge of how other countries managed the pandemic and I'm not commenting on them.

I know quite a few people that died up here but I'm not going to blame scot gov for them. I've put the figures a few posts up most were similar apart from the antivax nations like Eastern Europe.

[grunt]

I know quite a few people that died up here but I'm not going to blame scot gov for them. I've put the figures a few posts up most were similar apart from the antivax nations like Eastern Europe.
You seem to think that a few statistics can tell the story of how a country dealt with the pandemic. I suggest there are many, many factors that affected the Covid outcomes, and it is highly simplistic to use these basic statistics to make any sensible comment about Government management of Covid. Perhaps our outcomes should have been better ...?

[archie]

Basic tools in this country existed - Information and statistics from experts, a track and trace mechanism (can you provide evidence that the competence of the track and trace programmes for STD's within the were "highly questionable) and well contected PPE companies all existed.

You claim they did not.

The claim I find laughable is that this Govt did the best they could.

Why did Johnson say "maybe it's better if you don't go to the pub" ?


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Firstly, I don't know why you keep asking me about Johnson's statements. How can I know that? You are really keen to say that all politicians in the UK failed and that this was somehow all done out of some mendacity. My take is that COVID was so unprecedented that all governments were caught out. The nearest comparable was Spanish flu post WW1. Do I think all the decisions taken were correct? No. Should politicians be accountable for those decisions yes. But I think it's fair to acknowledge the difficulties they were operating under.

There is a huge discussion about how we plan and provide for catastrophic events. Just in time strategies didn't work, but just in case strategies are not without cost. Could we have learned from SARS and MERS? Yes, but the impact in China was possibly even worse, despite their direct experience of SARS.

The reason I ask for examples of what other countries did well is to understand what you think UK administration should have done, but didn't. It appears to be that you would have locked down harder and longer. Is that it?

[archie]

You seem to think that a few statistics can tell the story of how a country dealt with the pandemic. I suggest there are many, many factors that affected the Covid outcomes, and it is highly simplistic to use these basic statistics to make any sensible comment about Government management of Covid. Perhaps our outcomes should have been better ...?

I didn't post the stats, but I can't believe that you are discounting actual evidence! On what basis would you assess outcomes?

[Stairway 2 7]

You seem to think that a few statistics can tell the story of how a country dealt with the pandemic. I suggest there are many, many factors that affected the Covid outcomes, and it is highly simplistic to use these basic statistics to make any sensible comment about Government management of Covid. Perhaps our outcomes should have been better ...?

It's not a simple statistic it's how many excess deaths through the pandemic nations had over and above what was expected. There is no better way to say how a nation done. We of course all could have done better but basically most around us done the same. There's was obviously wholesale corruption and robbery but that is separate

We got some things wrong particularly locking down late and putting people from hospital straight to their old folks home. We got others right, I remember uk gov getting slatted on here for spacing the first and second dose to 12 weeks from 4 even when the EU was calling it crazy. 90% of the protection against death came from the first dose so I read recently it could have saved 10k lives in the uk. That was a guess as all decisions were though

[Kato]

Firstly, I don't know why you keep asking me about Johnson's statements. How can I know that? You are really keen to say that all politicians in the UK failed and that this was somehow all done out of some mendacity. My take is that COVID was so unprecedented that all governments were caught out. The nearest comparable was Spanish flu post WW1. Do I think all the decisions taken were correct? No. Should politicians be accountable for those decisions yes. But I think it's fair to acknowledge the difficulties they were operating under.

There is a huge discussion about how we plan and provide for catastrophic events. Just in time strategies didn't work, but just in case strategies are not without cost. Could we have learned from SARS and MERS? Yes, but the impact in China was possibly even worse, despite their direct experience of SARS.

The reason I ask for examples of what other countries did well is to understand what you think UK administration should have done, but didn't. It appears to be that you would have locked down harder and longer. Is that it?Locked down sooner rather than harder.

The reason I repeatedly ask about Johnson's statement is that he, by then, knew it was airborne, had the model of Operation Signet, a basic tool, at hand and was either unaware of it or ignored it as it contained a model for swift a lock down. Its not how hard you lock down but how quickly and he ignored a basic tool. Examples from earlier SARS outbreaks and Spanish Flu showed that but he ignored as it would harm business.

I'll put it back you, Archie, which basic tools, stats or models did we in the UK lack?

Other countries?

We aren't discussing them.

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[archie]

Locked down sooner rather than harder.

The reason I repeatedly ask about Johnson's statement is that he, by then, knew it was airborne, had the model of Operation Signet, a basic tool, at hand and was either unaware of it or ignored it as it contained a model for swift a lock down. Its not how hard you lock down but how quickly and he ignored a basic tool. Examples from earlier SARS outbreaks and Spanish Flu showed that but he ignored as it would harm business.

I'll put it back you, Archie, which basic tools, stats or models did we in the UK lack?

Other countries?

We aren't discussing them.

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I've already said that the basic policy making decision tools weren't there. I've set out what they were - nobody had them. This was because of the speed and intensity of the outbreak. The reason I ask about other countries is to try and understand what we could have done better. You keep pushing back saying we aren't discussing them. Why? It would help understand what we could have done. Finally, you keep referring to Operation Signet. I don't know what that is. There was a pandemic exercise called Cygnet. Is that it?

[grunt]

I didn't post the stats, but I can't believe that you are discounting actual evidence! On what basis would you assess outcomes?
Evidence of what? What do these statistics tell us? They are too high level to give any meaningful indication of which strategies worked and which didn't. On one level they are useful. But you kicked off this discussion based on an article talking about the success of lockdowns, and these statistics provide no insight into the success of lockdowns. You need far more detailed data to form such an opinion.

I'm not against statistics. I'm against invalid conclusions based on inappropriate or incomplete statistics.

[grunt]

It's not a simple statistic it's how many excess deaths through the pandemic nations had over and above what was expected.
That's the very definition of a simple statistic. It tells you nothing of why those numbers arose.

[Kato]

I've already said that the basic policy making decision tools weren't there. I've set out what they were - nobody had them. This was because of the speed and intensity of the outbreak. The reason I ask about other countries is to try and understand what we could have done better. You keep pushing back saying we aren't discussing them. Why? It would help understand what we could have done. Finally, you keep referring to Operation Signet. I don't know what that is. There was a pandemic exercise called Cygnet. Is that it?Deep, deep apologies for a typo.

We did have some basic tools which were ignored to begin with. We had the stats from previous SARS and MERS and even Spanish Flu.

We had the Govts own modelling.

But you say we lacked the basic tools even that is what we turned to once Boris's "let it sweep through the population" was shown to be untenable.

I think you have a pro-Govt agenda and are simply ignoring all the points put to you.

In 2010 scientists were nearing the completion the research for MNRA vaccines and it was put on hold for the sake of £10-£30M. A less short sighted Govt might have seen the need to complete this research given we live in a global economy.

As grunt said, we had the worst possible Govt at the worst possible time. Not because they lacked the basic tools but because they simply ignored them.

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[Stairway 2 7]

That's the very definition of a simple statistic. It tells you nothing of why those numbers arose.

It's the definitive stat, how countries did at the end. Its a bit like saying league tables are useless as they don't say how the numbers arose. I guess all European nations got some things right and some things wrong. We ended up doing about the same as most and a lot better than others

[James310]

Hindsight playing a huge part in your response here. He said this on 10 March 2020, when very little was known about the disease. But sure, flail him alive with your 20:20 hindsight.

We went into full lockdown 13 days later. He also said lockdown doesn't work, days before we went into lockdown.

Pretty much all politicians and experts got this wrong.

[grunt]

It's the definitive stat, how countries did at the end. It's a bit like saying league tables are useless as they don't say how the numbers arose. I guess all European nations got some things right and some things wrong. We ended up doing about the same as most and a lot better than others
But this thread is not about how we did overall. This thread is based on Elliott's pathetic and diversionary attempt to blame the UK's economic woes on lockdown. The article is a hair's breadth away from lockdown denialism, almost suggesting that "the country was wrong to lockdown, we'd have been better off letting all the old people die. Look what it's done to our economy!" And of course (as I may have mentioned already) no consideration at all as to whether Brexit (remember that?) might have some significant input to our lack of economic wellbeing.

Using your football analogy, it's like using the club's league position to make an assessment of the club's defensive performance. Yes the league position tells us something, but there are multiple other factors involved too - our attackers, our manager's tactics, the performance of other teams. It doesn't address the issue of the thread.

[Stairway 2 7]

But this thread is not about how we did overall. This thread is based on Elliott's pathetic and diversionary attempt to blame the UK's economic woes on lockdown. The article is a hair's breadth away from lockdown denialism, almost suggesting that "the country was wrong to lockdown, we'd have been better off letting all the old people die. Look what it's done to our economy!" And of course (as I may have mentioned already) no consideration at all as to whether Brexit (remember that?) might have some significant input to our lack of economic wellbeing.

Using your football analogy, it's like using the club's league position to make an assessment of the club's defensive performance. Yes the league position tells us something, but there are multiple other factors involved too - our attackers, our manager's tactics, the performance of other teams. It doesn't address the issue of the thread.

There is simply no doubt lockdown created most of our financial problems just now, I think brexit acounts for about a 10% cut of gbp growth I'd read (still absolutely massive and self inflicted). It ridiculous to deny lockdown had a massive financial cost.

But I agree Elliott is a tit for weighing them against each other lives v money, he's been wrong about everything including Ukraine and brexit.

As I said in my first post the other option was 500,000 dead estimated. Its ridiculous to say lockdown wasn't worth it, we would have paid 10 times the cost to save hundreds of thousands of lives.

[archie]

Deep, deep apologies for a typo.

We did have some basic tools which were ignored to begin with. We had the stats from previous SARS and MERS and even Spanish Flu.

We had the Govts own modelling.

But you say we lacked the basic tools even that is what we turned to once Boris's "let it sweep through the population" was shown to be untenable.

I think you have a pro-Govt agenda and are simply ignoring all the points put to you.

In 2010 scientists were nearing the completion the research for MNRA vaccines and it was put on hold for the sake of £10-£30M. A less short sighted Govt might have seen the need to complete this research given we live in a global economy.

As grunt said, we had the worst possible Govt at the worst possible time. Not because they lacked the basic tools but because they simply ignored them.

Sent from my SM-A528B using Tapatalk

I want to pick you up on one thing. I'm not saying the UK and devolved administrations got it all right. TBH it's still too soon to say. But I will repeat my sympathy for all policy makers and politicians making decisions at pace and with little validated information. This does not make me pro government, but maybe a bit more understanding of the situation they were working in.

[archie]

There is simply no doubt lockdown created most of our financial problems just now, I think brexit acounts for about a 10% cut of gbp growth I'd read (still absolutely massive and self inflicted). It ridiculous to deny lockdown had a massive financial cost.

But I agree Elliott is a tit for weighing them against each other lives v money, he's been wrong about everything including Ukraine and brexit.

As I said in my first post the other option was 500,000 dead estimated. Its ridiculous to say lockdown wasn't worth it, we would have paid 10 times the cost to save hundreds of thousands of lives.

To add to this, as someone who thinks Brexit was the equivalent of take gun, aim at foot and fire, it's not a competition between COVID and Brexit. Both were convulsive events. I fully support the approach to lockdown. When we can have an adult discussion about that we need to weigh up the impact of the lockdown on other outcomes: education, child development, impact on other health conditions, the economy and so on.

[grunt]

To add to this, as someone who thinks Brexit was the equivalent of take gun, aim at foot and fire, it's not a competition between COVID and Brexit. Both were convulsive events. I fully support the approach to lockdown. When we can have an adult discussion about that we need to weigh up the impact of the lockdown on other outcomes: education, child development, impact on other health conditions, the economy and so on.


There is simply no doubt lockdown created most of our financial problems just now, I think brexit acounts for about a 10% cut of gbp growth I'd read (still absolutely massive and self inflicted). It ridiculous to deny lockdown had a massive financial cost.
You may be surprised to hear I agree with both of you, except about relative importance. I don't know where you get your 10% figure from but it doesn't ring true to me. And similarly, when looking at lockdown - all the other advanced economies also had lockdown, so how is it they have bounced back?

The difference is Brexit. But then I would say that, wouldn't I?

[Stairway 2 7]

You may be surprised to hear I agree with both of you, except about relative importance. I don't know where you get your 10% figure from but it doesn't ring true to me. And similarly, when looking at lockdown - all the other advanced economies also had lockdown, so how is it they have bounced back?

The difference is Brexit. But then I would say that, wouldn't I?

I'm not downplaying brexit I think it's the biggest non war self mutilation a nation has done to itself in the past century.
Its actually a 4% cut which is obviously massive and actually covid will only account for 2% going forward each your so your right.
https://www.ft.com/content/6885073e-6625-4259-a139-5a7bc6122d72

its a 10-15 loss in trade I was thinking of, which is also obviously brutal.
https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/#assumptions

We were hammered by inflation this year that again was about 10% more than our peers and that is pretty much all due to brexit. Brexit and covid obviously aren't connected although one was self inflicted and the other we had no choice

[Smartie]

We can argue all day about the relative effects of all 3, but the state of the UK’s finances today have been heavily shaped by Covid, Brexit and the war in Ukraine.

I actually find it quite hard to take anyone seriously who is in denial about any of the 3 but Brexit deniers certainly seem to the most prominent.

[Stairway 2 7]

We can argue all day about the relative effects of all 3, but the state of the UK’s finances today have been heavily shaped by Covid, Brexit and the war in Ukraine.

I actually find it quite hard to take anyone seriously who is in denial about any of the 3 but Brexit deniers certainly seem to the most prominent.

One thing I'll say is the hibs.net covid thread was good in that it hardly had any posts from anti vax or lockdown. Other forms of social media were brutal. Curiosity got the better of me and I checked kickbacks covid thread and it was wild with covid hoax comments.

I'm not sure if we have any on here that are still pro brexit, quiet if so

[archie]

We can argue all day about the relative effects of all 3, but the state of the UK’s finances today have been heavily shaped by Covid, Brexit and the war in Ukraine.

I actually find it quite hard to take anyone seriously who is in denial about any of the 3 but Brexit deniers certainly seem to the most prominent.
I guess there was no choice with the other two.