xG Projected League Table

[Fergus52]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb0_YB5VQAAQGSF?format=jpg&name=small

Follow this account on twitter who take the xG data for all games in Scotland and make a projected league table based on the quality of chances each team are conceding and creating.

He's been doing it for a few seasons now and each year its been consistently accurate at identifying teams that have been over-performing and getting lucky results or vice versa, and predicting when a teams results are likely to drastically improve or get worse. Last season when Ange was under pressure after some poor results I remember this data showing they were performing much better than anyone else in the league in terms of creating good chances and were just suffering from poor luck, with it predicting that Celtic would win the league easily which they did in the end.

The sample size is quite small just now as only a few league games have been played, so the projected points column should be taken with a big pinch of salt for now.

The interesting thing for me though is how good our expected goal difference per 90 is - third best in the league, a little ahead of Aberdeen and Motherwell and a good bit ahead of everyone else. Considering we've already played Rangers and Hearts these numbers are really good - we've been the third best team in the league at creating high quality chances while restricting the other team to poor/low quality shots. Although on the other hand playing nearly a whole 90 against a 10 man Kilmarnock will definitely have padded our numbers up a good bit.

If the new signings can continue to gel and we have performances like first half v Livi or against St Mirren less frequently, then there's no reason we shouldn't be looking to challenge for third or fourth. Aberdeen and Hearts aren't really anything special from what I've seen of them this season and the data backs that up.

As long as our performances don't drastically drop then then there's absolutely no chance of relegation like some folk were getting all excited about last week. We'll also most likely end the season a good few points ahead of .net darlings Livingston as well.

[JamesHFC]

Dundee United & Ross County in two of our next three games. Got to be taking maximum points.

Aberdeen be tough but I fancy us against anyone at home.

[MWHIBBIES]

The difference from last season is pretty significant already

[007]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb0_YB5VQAAQGSF?format=jpg&name=small

Follow this account on twitter who take the xG data for all games in Scotland and make a projected league table based on the quality of chances each team are conceding and creating.

He's been doing it for a few seasons now and each year its been consistently accurate at identifying teams that have been over-performing and getting lucky results or vice versa, and predicting when a teams results are likely to drastically improve or get worse. Last season when Ange was under pressure after some poor results I remember this data showing they were performing much better than anyone else in the league in terms of creating good chances and were just suffering from poor luck, with it predicting that Celtic would win the league easily which they did in the end.

The sample size is quite small just now as only a few league games have been played, so the projected points column should be taken with a big pinch of salt for now.

The interesting thing for me though is how good our expected goal difference per 90 is - third best in the league, a little ahead of Aberdeen and Motherwell and a good bit ahead of everyone else. Considering we've already played Rangers and Hearts these numbers are really good - we've been the third best team in the league at creating high quality chances while restricting the other team to poor/low quality shots. Although on the other hand playing nearly a whole 90 against a 10 man Kilmarnock will definitely have padded our numbers up a good bit.

If the new signings can continue to gel and we have performances like first half v Livi or against St Mirren less frequently, then there's no reason we shouldn't be looking to challenge for third or fourth. Aberdeen and Hearts aren't really anything special from what I've seen of them this season and the data backs that up.

As long as our performances don't drastically drop then then there's absolutely no chance of relegation like some folk were getting all excited about last week. We'll also most likely end the season a good few points ahead of .net darlings Livingston as well.

Interesting stuff, thanks for posting it. It also confirms what we've seen with our own eyes in that we're not scoring enough of our chances created. Probably just need 1 or 2 more players to get off the mark and get their confidence going.

[King Cosell]

If we beat Dundee Utd, I think we'll be up to 3rd place on Saturday. Dons and Livi play the Old Firm, Motherwell away at Ross County, Hearts v St Mirren on Sunday. Could be a very pleasant journey home.

[CapitalGreen]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb0_YB5VQAAQGSF?format=jpg&name=small

The interesting thing for me though is how good our expected goal difference per 90 is - third best in the league, a little ahead of Aberdeen and Motherwell and a good bit ahead of everyone else. Considering we've already played Rangers and Hearts these numbers are really good - we've been the third best team in the league at creating high quality chances while restricting the other team to poor/low quality shots. Although on the other hand playing nearly a whole 90 against a 10 man Kilmarnock will definitely have padded our numbers up a good bit.

I don’t think the data confirms this as it is not adjusted for volume of chances created. The data as it is presented above tells us nothing about the average quality of the chances we create, just our cumulative xG.

For example:
Team A creates 20 chances with an xG of 0.1 each to give an overall xG of 2
Team B creates 2 chances with an xG of 0.9 each to give an overall xG of 1.8

Team A has the higher overall xG but they created 0 high quality chances while Team B created 2 high quality chances.

We’ve taken 100 shots this season (3rd highest) but only 23 have hit the target (2nd lowest) with 6 goals scored. I imagine our average xG per shot will be one of lowest in the league.

[Fergus52]

I don’t think the data confirms this as it is not adjusted for volume of chances created. The data as it is presented above tells us nothing about the average quality of the chances we create, just our cumulative xG.

For example:
Team A creates 20 chances with an xG of 0.1 each to give an overall xG of 2
Team B creates 2 chances with an xG of 0.9 each to give an overall xG of 1.8

Team A has the higher overall xG but they created 0 high quality chances while Team B created 2 high quality chances.

We’ve taken 100 shots this season (3rd highest) but only 23 have hit the target (2nd lowest) with 6 goals scored. I imagine our average xG per shot will be one of lowest in the league.

Everything you've said is true, but the general point I was making still stands.

In your example either team is just as likely to have scored two goals.

So whether we're having a high volume of low quality chances or a low volume of high quality chances doesn't really matter - we're still the third most likely team in the league to outscore our opposition in any given game, based on the limited data so far.

[Hibernian Verse]

Does anyone know at this point what the European places will get you? I heard on sportsound that 4th gets some kind of group stage?

[B.H.F.C]

Everything you've said is true, but the general point I was making still stands.

In your example either team is just as likely to have scored two goals.

So whether we're having a high volume of low quality chances or a low volume of high quality chances doesn't really matter - we're still the third most likely team in the league to outscore our opposition in any given game, based on the limited data so far.

The last bit is why I’m never convinced by the XG stuff.

Because watching the six games so far, I’ve never really felt for most of them that we were going to our score the opposition. Whether the chances are high quality, low quality or whatever we just really struggle to put the ball in the net because we’re lacking in quality when the chances do come.

Even yesterday, we were making chances but I just never really felt we were going to put the ball in the net.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Out of interest, is there a xG final table for last season for comparison to the actual final table?

Would give a better idea how much these stats actually tell us if we can see them over a full season.

[Sir David Gray]

Out of interest, is there a xG final table for last season for comparison to the actual final table?

Would give a better idea how much these stats actually tell us if we can see them over a full season.

Think it's here - https://footystats.org/scotland/premiership/xg#

1 - Celtic
2 - Rangers
3 - Hearts
4 - Aberdeen
5 - Hibs
6 - Motherwell
7 - St Mirren
8 - Dundee Utd
9 - Ross County
10 - Dundee
11 - Livingston
12 - St Johnstone

[Fergus52]

Think it's here - https://footystats.org/scotland/premiership/xg#

1 - Celtic
2 - Rangers
3 - Hearts
4 - Aberdeen
5 - Hibs
6 - Motherwell
7 - St Mirren
8 - Dundee Utd
9 - Ross County
10 - Dundee
11 - Livingston
12 - St Johnstone

Might be wrong but looks like that's just expected goals for, not net expected goal difference (expected goals minus expected goals against), which tends to give a better picture of a team's performance levels

[Sir David Gray]

Might be wrong but looks like that's just expected goals for, not net expected goal difference (expected goals minus expected goals against), which tends to give a better picture of a team's performance levels

Ahh right ok possibly, I don't know to be completely honest as I find the whole expected goals etc thing quite confusing so just saw this table and thought it was the same thing but maybe not.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Think it's here - https://footystats.org/scotland/premiership/xg#

1 - Celtic
2 - Rangers
3 - Hearts
4 - Aberdeen
5 - Hibs
6 - Motherwell
7 - St Mirren
8 - Dundee Utd
9 - Ross County
10 - Dundee
11 - Livingston
12 - St Johnstone

Even if that is just xG goals scored I think we can all say we didn’t look like the 5th most likely team to score in the league last season and we certainly weren’t the 5th highest scorers!

[Viva_Palmeiras]

i dunno the answer to this but I’m wondering whether people are clinging on to this stat and making observations based on the belief that it’s a given.

What does “expected” mean in real terms? If you take the weather (as an asidedunno if xG uses MonteCarlo simulation?) is there’s a 20% chance of showers you’d probably assume the likelihood is that you won’t need a raincoat/brolly however there is a probability that it will rain.

before I’d go jumping to this and that I’d consider whether the xG is a decent guide in the first place - theories are there to be disproven.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb0_YB5VQAAQGSF?format=jpg&name=small

Follow this account on twitter who take the xG data for all games in Scotland and make a projected league table based on the quality of chances each team are conceding and creating.

He's been doing it for a few seasons now and each year its been consistently accurate at identifying teams that have been over-performing and getting lucky results or vice versa, and predicting when a teams results are likely to drastically improve or get worse. Last season when Ange was under pressure after some poor results I remember this data showing they were performing much better than anyone else in the league in terms of creating good chances and were just suffering from poor luck, with it predicting that Celtic would win the league easily which they did in the end.

The sample size is quite small just now as only a few league games have been played, so the projected points column should be taken with a big pinch of salt for now.

The interesting thing for me though is how good our expected goal difference per 90 is - third best in the league, a little ahead of Aberdeen and Motherwell and a good bit ahead of everyone else. Considering we've already played Rangers and Hearts these numbers are really good - we've been the third best team in the league at creating high quality chances while restricting the other team to poor/low quality shots. Although on the other hand playing nearly a whole 90 against a 10 man Kilmarnock will definitely have padded our numbers up a good bit.

If the new signings can continue to gel and we have performances like first half v Livi or against St Mirren less frequently, then there's no reason we shouldn't be looking to challenge for third or fourth. Aberdeen and Hearts aren't really anything special from what I've seen of them this season and the data backs that up.

As long as our performances don't drastically drop then then there's absolutely no chance of relegation like some folk were getting all excited about last week. We'll also most likely end the season a good few points ahead of .net darlings Livingston as well.

[Fergus52]

i dunno the answer to this but I’m wondering whether people are clinging on to this stat and making observations based on the belief that it’s a given.

What does “expected” mean in real terms? If you take the weather (as an asidedunno if xG uses MonteCarlo simulation?) is there’s a 20% chance of showers you’d probably assume the likelihood is that you won’t need a raincoat/brolly however there is a probability that it will rain.

before I’d go jumping to this and that I’d consider whether the xG is a decent guide in the first place - theories are there to be disproven.

Every shot a team takes in a game gets a decimal percentage score of how likely it is to be a goal based on the exact location on the pitch, and the type of shot (volley, header etc.). The models for determining the score for each chance are pretty good as they have almost infinite input data from every match where the position of every shot is tracked. The better models now also take into account the positions of opposing players around the shooter, not accounting for this properly used to be a big flaw in the metric imo.

It doesn't take into account a players natural finishing ability though - players like Haaland and Aubameyang consistently score much more goals than their personal xG suggests they should. So if a team has poor or out of form strikers they then are likely to score a bit less than their xG would suggest.

For the second bit I've put in bold - xG difference (expected goals for minus expected goals against) has been proven several times to the be the best indicator of a teams likely future performance in a season, with a much stronger correlation to future points won than any other metric (points per game, shots, shots on target, goal difference, possession etc.)

In previous seasons the guy who collates and posts the data from the table I posted, used it to call that Gerrards Rangers would comfortably win the 20/21 league back in October when they were neck in neck with Celtic, had had similar results so far and Celtic were still the strong favorites. Similarly last season when Rangers were six points ahead in the league after a few early unlucky results for Ange, it predicted that Celtic would in the league relatively comfortably which he got completely derided for at the time from other Rangers fans.

[I'm Spartacus]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb0_YB5VQAAQGSF?format=jpg&name=small

Follow this account on twitter who take the xG data for all games in Scotland and make a projected league table based on the quality of chances each team are conceding and creating.

He's been doing it for a few seasons now and each year its been consistently accurate at identifying teams that have been over-performing and getting lucky results or vice versa, and predicting when a teams results are likely to drastically improve or get worse. Last season when Ange was under pressure after some poor results I remember this data showing they were performing much better than anyone else in the league in terms of creating good chances and were just suffering from poor luck, with it predicting that Celtic would win the league easily which they did in the end.

The sample size is quite small just now as only a few league games have been played, so the projected points column should be taken with a big pinch of salt for now.

The interesting thing for me though is how good our expected goal difference per 90 is - third best in the league, a little ahead of Aberdeen and Motherwell and a good bit ahead of everyone else. Considering we've already played Rangers and Hearts these numbers are really good - we've been the third best team in the league at creating high quality chances while restricting the other team to poor/low quality shots. Although on the other hand playing nearly a whole 90 against a 10 man Kilmarnock will definitely have padded our numbers up a good bit.

If the new signings can continue to gel and we have performances like first half v Livi or against St Mirren less frequently, then there's no reason we shouldn't be looking to challenge for third or fourth. Aberdeen and Hearts aren't really anything special from what I've seen of them this season and the data backs that up.

As long as our performances don't drastically drop then then there's absolutely no chance of relegation like some folk were getting all excited about last week. We'll also most likely end the season a good few points ahead of .net darlings Livingston as well.

I'd take that, given Aberdeen have spent more than Man City!

[Alan62]

What is palpably obvious to anyone who has watched Hibs this season is that we should be scoring more goals. Two of our strikers were in XG territory (as in 'I'd eXpect my Granny to score that) and failed miserably. BUT, being a happy clapper myself, I think we may just turn things around. It's abundantly clear that Youan needs a goal or two to give him some confidence. Same with Bojang who has had very little time on the park but has still managed to be in great positions where a goal would have been expected. On another day, McKirdy would have been a bit more composed with that header and should have guided it in under the bar instead of over.

Lee Johnson's job is to turn the XGs into Gs. Let's see how that works out.

[worcesterhibby]

really interesting post and replies. I'd love to see the table for goal difference xg as it was at the split last year. Obviously the final table if it was available would be skewed, by the fact that the bottom six all play each other rather than tougher teams.

However even the Xg only table posted is a pretty good indication of how the league panned out last year..Celtic best, rangers 2nd hearts 3rd and the rest all pretty much as bad as each other !

1 - Celtic
2 - Rangers
3 - Hearts
4 - Aberdeen
5 - Hibs
6 - Motherwell
7 - St Mirren
8 - Dundee Utd
9 - Ross County
10 - Dundee
11 - Livingston
12 - St Johnstone

[Kato]

Seems like a decent statistical guide to how many sitters teams are missing.

Sent from my SM-A528B using Tapatalk

[007]

What is palpably obvious to anyone who has watched Hibs this season is that we should be scoring more goals. Two of our strikers were in XG territory (as in 'I'd eXpect my Granny to score that) and failed miserably. BUT, being a happy clapper myself, I think we may just turn things around. It's abundantly clear that Youan needs a goal or two to give him some confidence. Same with Bojang who has had very little time on the park but has still managed to be in great positions where a goal would have been expected. On another day, McKirdy would have been a bit more composed with that header and should have guided it in under the bar instead of over.

Lee Johnson's job is to turn the XGs into Gs. Let's see how that works out.

Agree with that (and prefer your interpretation of XG 😂).

Though I would say there's only so much LJ & JM can do to turn the XG into goals if the players are missing great chances. Extra shooting pratice (presumably they're doing that), bring in a striking coach (probably be more beneficial than a sniper)....sign your Granny. 🤔

[bigwheel]

What is palpably obvious to anyone who has watched Hibs this season is that we should be scoring more goals. Two of our strikers were in XG territory (as in 'I'd eXpect my Granny to score that) and failed miserably. BUT, being a happy clapper myself, I think we may just turn things around. It's abundantly clear that Youan needs a goal or two to give him some confidence. Same with Bojang who has had very little time on the park but has still managed to be in great positions where a goal would have been expected. On another day, McKirdy would have been a bit more composed with that header and should have guided it in under the bar instead of over.

Lee Johnson's job is to turn the XGs into Gs. Let's see how that works out.

[emoji106][emoji106]

[allezsauzee]

i dunno the answer to this but I’m wondering whether people are clinging on to this stat and making observations based on the belief that it’s a given.

What does “expected” mean in real terms? If you take the weather (as an asidedunno if xG uses MonteCarlo simulation?) is there’s a 20% chance of showers you’d probably assume the likelihood is that you won’t need a raincoat/brolly however there is a probability that it will rain.

before I’d go jumping to this and that I’d consider whether the xG is a decent guide in the first place - theories are there to be disproven.

".net darlings" Livingston are doing better with their xG this season than last season and they finished 7th last season, so maybe they'll be top 4.

[Fergus52]

Updated version has us clear in third with Hearts well in the bottom 6, would definitely take that come the end of the season :greengrin

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fet9MHGVsAArrYK?format=jpg&name=4096x4096