China

[Ozyhibby]

Economic collapse is getting very close in China. The fall out from it will have massive consequences around the world with unknowable outcomes.

https://twitter.com/wallstreetsilv/status/1549790086656581640?s=21&t=Ms6TlDCp0hx6Eoyvk2O4Gg

Thought deserved it’s own thread.


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[Jones28]

Why is this happening? Knock on effect from the economic downturn in the west/consumer goods etc?

[makaveli1875]

Why is this happening? Knock on effect from the economic downturn in the west/consumer goods etc?

It’s more complex than that , the zero Covid policy has a bit to do with it . Mainly it’s the government crackdowns on business is scaring off investors . Investing in China has been a way to make massive cash for rich investors the last 3 decades , not so much now

[Pretty Boy]

So is that tweet saying the bank in question has essentially confiscated peoples savings for their own use? I know your savings don't just sit in a big personal vault waiting for you but the option to with draw them as and when exists.

[Ozyhibby]

It’s more complex than that , the zero Covid policy has a bit to do with it . Mainly it’s the government crackdowns on business is scaring off investors . Investing in China has been a way to make massive cash for rich investors the last 3 decades , not so much now

They also have a massive debt bubble about ready to burst. They have borrowed massively for real estate and inflated prices to levels last seen in Japan in the 90’s. There are over 90 million empty homes now in China. Even with their large population, that is a staggering number.
Recent crackdowns on tech companies have scared all those investors away and they are either leaving the Chinese market or investing in other sectors.


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[Ozyhibby]

So is that tweet saying the bank in question has essentially confiscated peoples savings for their own use? I know your savings don't just sit in a big personal vault waiting for you but the option to with draw them as and when exists.

Seems to be. There appear to be a lot of banks and real estate companies on the brink of collapse and when one goes, it’s likely that the rest will follow.


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[WhileTheChief..]

I’ve been following this for around a year.

China faces a huge problem in the next 5 - 10 years, primarily down to its demographics and government policy.

Their entire economy is built on debt. It’s all about keeping people in employment. Business owners are encouraged to employ at whatever cost and fund it through borrowing.

Add this to the real estate issue and it’s a ticking time bomb. It’s not just empty homes by the way, they have built entire cities that have no one living in them!

Check out YouTube, there’s some great videos about it.

They also don’t really have a way out. A lot of commentators are predicting China’s collapse, not just their economy, but the country as a whole.

Everything that is happening their now has been predicated for months. t’s really interesting watching it all unfold.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/27/china-property-sales-could-plunge-by-one-third-analysts-say-as-crisis-deepens?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1658873510


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[Paul1642]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-62377353

The China / Taiwan issue is well an truly coming to the fore. If it was to escalate to military conflict it would dwarf the Ukraine crisis ten fold.

Hopefully the Wests relatively firm response to Russia will serve as a deterrent and I hope that behind the scenes USA are making it clear that Taiwan will be backed. Sanctions against China would need to be ruthless, regardless of the effect is has on out own economy’s.

[Hibrandenburg]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-62377353

The China / Taiwan issue is well an truly coming to the fore. If it was to escalate to military conflict it would dwarf the Ukraine crisis ten fold.

Hopefully the Wests relatively firm response to Russia will serve as a deterrent and I hope that behind the scenes USA are making it clear that Taiwan will be backed. Sanctions against China would need to be ruthless, regardless of the effect is has on out own economy’s.

If there is a conflict in Taiwan whilst the Ukraine crisis is on going it would probably see China and Russia forming some kind of alliance, if that hasn't already happened.

[Ozyhibby]

If there is a conflict in Taiwan whilst the Ukraine crisis is on going it would probably see China and Russia forming some kind of alliance, if that hasn't already happened.

I just don’t see it happening. I don’t think China has the capability to do it without levelling it. Doing that would harm China more than any other country. The loss of all that semi conductor production would devastate the global economy and China would feel that more than anyone else at a time when they are about to experience a massive financial shock anyway.
Problem with all that is that I’m applying logic and I guess that’s the mistake we all made with Putin. I don’t think Xi has the power in China that Putin has in Russia though.


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[Paul1642]

I just don’t see it happening. I don’t think China has the capability to do it without levelling it. Doing that would harm China more than any other country. The loss of all that semi conductor production would devastate the global economy and China would feel that more than anyone else at a time when they are about to experience a massive financial shock anyway.
Problem with all that is that I’m applying logic and I guess that’s the mistake we all made with Putin. I don’t think Xi has the power in China that Putin has in Russia though.


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I hope your right. My fear is that with the predicted difficulties the Chinese economy might be about to experience along with public unhappiness about the authoritarian handling of the COVID situation (hard to gauge public opinion due to censoring), a conflict might appear to be a good distraction to the Chinese government and an excuse to blame USA and others for their issues. There is no doubt that China has upped the Taiwan rhetoric since Russia invaded Ukraine.

I also don’t see It happening but I thought that about the Russia / Ukraine war, even when the signs were becoming more and more clear.

[Ozyhibby]

https://samf.substack.com/p/russia-and-china-perils-of-autocracy?r=15i4j0&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Really worth a read on China, Russia, Taiwan and Ukraine.


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[WhileTheChief..]

China imports around 80% of it's energy needs. As soon as war breaks out, they lose all their imports and the country grinds to a halt within a few months.

They're all talk. They're on the verge of their own collapse and need a common cause to keep the population on side. That's all this is.

Taiwan has a huge damn moat all around it and they've had 70 years to build up their defences.

China on the other hand is surrounded by countries that would become hostile to them and they've got practically no navy to speak of.

They couldn't take it if they wanted. Best they could do is level it but then the Taiwanese can do the same to a huge chunk of China's coastline and major cities.

Another basket case country run by an ********. It's all going to come crashing down.

I doubt a single shot will be fired.

[WhileTheChief..]

https://samf.substack.com/p/russia-and-china-perils-of-autocracy?r=15i4j0&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Really worth a read on China, Russia, Taiwan and Ukraine.


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Thanks for posting this, a really good summary of the situation.

[Paul1642]

China imports around 80% of it's energy needs. As soon as war breaks out, they lose all their imports and the country grinds to a halt within a few months.

They're all talk. They're on the verge of their own collapse and need a common cause to keep the population on side. That's all this is.

Taiwan has a huge damn moat all around it and they've had 70 years to build up their defences.

China on the other hand is surrounded by countries that would become hostile to them and they've got practically no navy to speak of.

They couldn't take it if they wanted. Best they could do is level it but then the Taiwanese can do the same to a huge chunk of China's coastline and major cities.

Another basket case country run by an ********. It's all going to come crashing down.

I doubt a single shot will be fired.

I think they could take it but at a cost too high for it to be remotely worth their while.

As you say, Taiwan is a well supported, well defended densely populated country with a top tier military who have prepared for this for generations.

I don’t think that there is any modern precedent for such a well armed, densely populated county being attacked. The last examples are probably WW2 and military technology is frighteningly advanced compared to then. It would be a slaughter and unlike days gone by you can’t win a war by overwhelming number alone any more.

That’s before you even consider the economic implications.
My only fear is that like Russia, common sense doesn’t always win over nationalistic stupidly.

[WhileTheChief..]

Think of the losses on d-day.

The Chinese need to cross 200km of ocean, not 20 odd miles.

How do they do that without monumental losses when they’d have missiles raining down on them? I just don’t se it happening.

[Ozyhibby]

They are going all North Korea now. Every time they have a bit of a hissy fit they launch a few missiles into the see and then look around to see if anyone is paying attention to them.


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[Hibrandenburg]

Think of the losses on d-day.

The Chinese need to cross 200km of ocean, not 20 odd miles.

How do they do that without monumental losses when they’d have missiles raining down on them? I just don’t se it happening.

Boris is going to build them a bridge? :dunno:

[Smartie]

Was there any good reason for Pelosi to be going there?

I'm all for standing up to bullies and not appeasing in the face of aggression but without knowing more details it seems like a slightly unnecessary provocation to me after China had expressed how unhappy they were about it.

Metaphorical willy waving has never done anything for me.

[Stairway 2 7]

Was there any good reason for Pelosi to be going there?

I'm all for standing up to bullies and not appeasing in the face of aggression but without knowing more details it seems like a slightly unnecessary provocation to me after China had expressed how unhappy they were about it.

Metaphorical willy waving has never done anything for me.

It's a bit like saying last year don't anger Russia incase they invade Ukraine. It's a show of support for an independent nation. Taiwan wants to be free but China is constantly pushing and intimidating.

[Ozyhibby]

Was there any good reason for Pelosi to be going there?

I'm all for standing up to bullies and not appeasing in the face of aggression but without knowing more details it seems like a slightly unnecessary provocation to me after China had expressed how unhappy they were about it.

Metaphorical willy waving has never done anything for me.

That’s a wee bit like saying those wee Catholic school kids in Northern Ireland were deliberately provoking those Orange men that were hurling abuse at them (I know it was years ago). We can’t keep tippy tapping around bullies.
If we don’t want them starting a war then we need to be very firm with them now rather than do what we done with Putin. That has shown to be a disaster.


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[Smartie]

That’s a wee bit like saying those wee Catholic school kids in Northern Ireland were deliberately provoking those Orange men that were hurling abuse at them (I know it was years ago). We can’t keep tippy tapping around bullies.
If we don’t want them starting a war then we need to be very firm with them now rather than do what we done with Putin. That has shown to be a disaster.


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I'm not suggesting tippy tapping around them.

If there's a good reason for her to go then she goes. If there are good reasons for people to be doing things and folk are trying to force them off course using intimidation then it's important to stand firm and not to give in to that.

That's different to pointless and aimless provocation. If all you have is abrasiveness then it loses it's effect at times when it might be useful to employ abrasiveness.

It just struck me as a pointless provocation, at a time when we could all do without it.

A bit like people who feel they need to depict the prophet Mohammed. It clearly causes offence. Is it not straightforward enough just to refrain from causing unnecessary offence and just not do it? There are enough situations that arise where offence will arise and have to be sorted through without going creating it from nothing.

[Stairway 2 7]

What gives China the right to say who visits a sovereign nation. Pelosi is visiting South Korea too is that OK with China.

[Paul1642]

I'm not suggesting tippy tapping around them.

If there's a good reason for her to go then she goes. If there are good reasons for people to be doing things and folk are trying to force them off course using intimidation then it's important to stand firm and not to give in to that.

That's different to pointless and aimless provocation. If all you have is abrasiveness then it loses it's effect at times when it might be useful to employ abrasiveness.

It just struck me as a pointless provocation, at a time when we could all do without it.

A bit like people who feel they need to depict the prophet Mohammed. It clearly causes offence. Is it not straightforward enough just to refrain from causing unnecessary offence and just not do it? There are enough situations that arise where offence will arise and have to be sorted through without going creating it from nothing.

Unless the good reason is to send the message that “We hear China upping the rhetoric regarding Taiwan, so here’s a friendly reminder that we publicly support them and aren’t afraid to show it”.

Seems a good enough reason to me.

Perhaps if Russia had foreseen how strongly Ukraine would he backed they wouldn’t have invaded. Let’s learn from that lesson and make sure that China knows in no uncertain terms that the west won’t back down on Taiwan it might just avoid conflict rather than instigate it.

I don’t really see the correlation to the Mohammed drawings. Completely different situation in every way.

[Nakedmanoncrack]

What gives China the right to say who visits a sovereign nation. Pelosi is visiting South Korea too is that OK with China.

Except "Taiwan" isn't a sovereign nation, The Republic of China is the remnants of the previous (fascist) regime, who retreated & took over Formosa at the end of the civil war. And who constitutionally still claim to be the legitimate government of all of China. Not that any such facts are likely to get a mention in mainstream discourse, despite being indisputable.

[Stairway 2 7]

Except "Taiwan" isn't a sovereign nation, The Republic of China is the remnants of the previous (fascist) regime, who retreated & took over Formosa at the end of the civil war. And who constitutionally still claim to be the legitimate government of all of China. Not that any such facts are likely to get a mention in mainstream discourse, despite being indisputable.

The fact is they want to be independent from the mainland government and it would be disgusting for them to be forced into a union.

[Nakedmanoncrack]

The fact is they want to be independent from the mainland government and it would be disgusting for them to be forced into a union.

By their Constitution they want the precise opposite. The future status is one that should be worked out in line with the agreements both sides of the straits have signed up to. Not by external provocations such as the sort seen this week, which are nothing to do with laughable ideas of love of democracy, standing up to bullies etc. Again they are quite the opposite, and entirely motivated by protecting US economic concerns. That people are willing to believe such blatant nonsense is utterly baffling.

[Stairway 2 7]

By their Constitution they want the precise opposite. The future status is one that should be worked out in line with the agreements both sides of the straits have signed up to. Not by external provocations such as the sort seen this week, which are nothing to do with laughable ideas of love of democracy, standing up to bullies etc. Again they are quite the opposite, and entirely motivated by protecting US economic concerns. That people are willing to believe such blatant nonsense is utterly baffling.

Your information is from another century. There is only one side of the two that has Democratic multi party elections and its not on the mainland. Only the extremes from the blues want reintegration with China. The greens want Independence and are happier with the name Taiwan and to be a sovereign nation. I the early 90s they were pretty evenly split but now 70% of the nation see themselves as only Taiwanese compared to 10% Chinese the rest see it as a mix. The youth today only know an independent Democratic Taiwan. If Scotland hopefully Independence from a vote that should be respected as should Taiwan who vote for independence parties in the majority.

China should stop being imperialistic and leave them alone, the days of sprawling empress are falling

[cabbageandribs1875]

They also have a massive debt bubble about ready to burst. They have borrowed massively for real estate and inflated prices to levels last seen in Japan in the 90’s. There are over 90 million empty homes now in China. Even with their large population, that is a staggering number.
Recent crackdowns on tech companies have scared all those investors away and they are either leaving the Chinese market or investing in other sectors.


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hopefully investors start investing in countries that don't have state sponsored theft of IP rights, might even stop the Chinese government trying to buy Africa as well :)



the one thing, and i do mean just the ONE thing Trump got right, was to start playing hardball with the Chinese Government

China Stealing Technology and Intellectual Property from U.S. | National Review (https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/06/china-is-stealing-our-technology-and-intellectual-property-congress-must-stop-it/)


the U.S. Trade Representative estimated (https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Section%20301%20FINAL.PDF) in 2018 that Chinese theft of American IP costs U.S. firms between $225 billion and $600 billion every year. General Keith Alexander, a former National Security Agency director (https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/07/09/nsa-chief-cybercrime-constitutes-the-greatest-transfer-of-wealth-in-history/), has called China’s technology theft “the greatest transfer of wealth in human history.”

China also owns well over $1Trillion of US debt


i noticed yesterday Westminster parliament has binned it's TikTok account over China Surveillance fears


but UK universities have no problem taking Chinese money

How China bought Britain's universities - UnHerd (https://unherd.com/2021/02/the-communist-party-on-campus/)

Only yesterday it was revealed that Oxford University has agreed to re-name its Wykeham Chair of Physics as the Tencent-Wykeham Professorship — after Tencent, a Chinese software firm with links to the Communist regime’s intelligence services, offered a £700,000 donation in return. Meanwhile, on Monday it emerged that almost 200 British academics are being investigated by HMRC on suspicion of helping the Chinese Government build weapons of mass destruction. They have not been accused of spying per se, but unwittingly passing intellectual property to the Chinese authorities and thus violating strict laws on exports.

[Nakedmanoncrack]

Your information is from another century. There is only one side of the two that has Democratic multi party elections and its not on the mainland. Only the extremes from the blues want reintegration with China. The greens want Independence and are happier with the name Taiwan and to be a sovereign nation. I the early 90s they were pretty evenly split but now 70% of the nation see themselves as only Taiwanese compared to 10% Chinese the rest see it as a mix. The youth today only know an independent Democratic Taiwan. If Scotland hopefully Independence from a vote that should be respected as should Taiwan who vote for independence parties in the majority.

China should stop being imperialistic and leave them alone, the days of sprawling empress are falling

Imperialism condemned without a hint of irony.

[hibsbollah]

Your information is from another century. There is only one side of the two that has Democratic multi party elections and its not on the mainland. Only the extremes from the blues want reintegration with China. The greens want Independence and are happier with the name Taiwan and to be a sovereign nation. I the early 90s they were pretty evenly split but now 70% of the nation see themselves as only Taiwanese compared to 10% Chinese the rest see it as a mix. The youth today only know an independent Democratic Taiwan. If Scotland hopefully Independence from a vote that should be respected as should Taiwan who vote for independence parties in the majority.

China should stop being imperialistic and leave them alone, the days of sprawling empress are falling

I’m echoing the last poster here, but talking about China and ‘imperialism’ is ridiculous. Make a list of countries China have invaded militarily and compare and contrast to (for example) the US, who have been throwing their aircraft carriers around the South China Sea for months now without apparent media interest. Remember this is right on Chinas borders. Can you imagine Chinese military exercises off the coast of Texas and it be treated with any other intent than preparation for war? China is a corrupt oligarchy with a terrible human rights record against its own people but it is the exact opposite of an imperialist expansionist power. Let’s have some historical accuracy.

[Stairway 2 7]

I’m echoing the last poster here, but talking about China and ‘imperialism’ is ridiculous. Make a list of countries China have invaded militarily and compare and contrast to (for example) the US, who have been throwing their aircraft carriers around the South China Sea for months now without apparent media interest. Remember this is right on Chinas borders. Can you imagine Chinese military exercises off the coast of Texas and it be treated with any other intent than preparation for war? China is a corrupt oligarchy with a terrible human rights record against its own people but it is the exact opposite of an imperialist expansionist power. Let’s have some historical accuracy.

Whataboutary. The US foreign policy is vile as is ours, Russia and Chinas. China have literally been making islands appear from the sea and building military bases on them. Vietnam has been

China do it in a soft way they have been pushing having bases on the Solomon islands and have a navy base on PNG on Australia's borders.

It isn't about boots on the ground anymore it's soft power. China is trying to buy Africa through creating debt. We're not immune China owns 150 billion of uk assets. Edinburgh University would collapse as it is without Chinese money even though its had warnings about spies and stolen information.

China and the US are two powers wanting a peace of every nation and its disgusting really, places like Africa don't need replundered

[hibsbollah]

Whataboutary. The US foreign policy is vile as is ours, Russia and Chinas. China have literally been making islands appear from the sea and building military bases on them. Vietnam has been

China do it in a soft way they have been pushing having bases on the Solomon islands and have a navy base on PNG on Australia's borders.

It isn't about boots on the ground anymore it's soft power. China is trying to buy Africa through creating debt. We're not immune China owns 150 billion of uk assets. Edinburgh University would collapse as it is without Chinese money even though its had warnings about spies and stolen information.

China and the US are two powers wanting a peace of every nation and its disgusting really, places like Africa don't need replundered

No, 'whataboutery' would be if i was saying that the USA were just as bad imperialists as China. Im not saying that. Im saying that China is not an imperialist power AT ALL, and never has been since its inception.

Since Deng opened the doors to capitalism in the late 70s early 80s China has been developing a global market economy, the same as all powers have. They have invested across the world in the same way as the East India Company did hundreds of years ago, and as the US has perfected since the 1950s. If you are critiquing global capitalism as an inadequate system, fine, give China both barrels, as you would do say France or Canada or Sweden, and as a socialist I have sympathy with that critique, obviously:greengrin But what the Chinese is doing in Africa is no more or less 'imperialist' than any western capital chucking money at the Third World.

[Stairway 2 7]

No, 'whataboutery' would be if i was saying that the USA were just as bad imperialists as China. Im not saying that. Im saying that China is not an imperialist power AT ALL, and never has been since its inception.

Since Deng opened the doors to capitalism in the late 70s early 80s China has been developing a global market economy, the same as all powers have. They have invested across the world in the same way as the East India Company did hundreds of years ago, and as the US has perfected since the 1950s. If you are critiquing global capitalism as an inadequate system, fine, give China both barrels, as you would do say France or Canada or Sweden, and as a socialist I have sympathy with that critique, obviously:greengrin But what the Chinese is doing in Africa is no more or less 'imperialist' than any western capital chucking money at the Third World.

Being like East India isn't a compliment. I give all nations it. But the scale China is doing it is unprecedented. I think it is imperialism. Its getting power over institutions world wide and then stealing the technology and natural resources.

Militarily the are going further Vietnam, Thailand and others are furious about the island bases they are creating. Australia too where they are creating them on its borders. But back to the point Taiwan has had Democratic elections for decades and separatist parties win. China needs to back of and respect that, not shoot missles miles from its coast

[WhileTheChief..]

The US are involved because all of China's neighbours asked them to be for their protection.

It's the US who ensures the world can trade safely by sea. Take that away and what do think will happen?

It's not US aggression that's the problem, it's entirely China that is the issue. To say that they aren't imperialistic may be technically true but if you look at the history of the 'country' it's always been autonomous regions until the Communists took over and started imposing their will on hundreds of millions of people.

Thank Christ for the US or zillions more people would be living under the likes of Putin or Li.

[hibsbollah]

but if you look at the history of the 'country' it's always been autonomous regions until the Communists took over

China has the longest history as a state with the same stable defined borders EVER. It has always had centralised control through thousands of years of dynastic rule (that’s why even today bureaucrats are called ‘mandarins’.) So your post actually couldn’t be more inaccurate description of China if you tried, unless you meant to type Italy or something.

You say you’ve been ‘looking at this for more than a year’, can I ask what you’ve been looking at/reading? Because if you’ve learnt that China is basically a description of a load of autonomous regions under an umbrella, I think you’re being misinformed.

[Ozyhibby]

You could argue all day over historic acts but I know for sure which side I’m on now.


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[Stairway 2 7]

You could argue all day over historic acts but I know for sure which side I’m on now.


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Indeed going back centuries doesn't change the fact that one side has elections and has a majority of votes from parties that want Independence, the other if firing missles of its borders

[neil7908]

Was there any good reason for Pelosi to be going there?

I'm all for standing up to bullies and not appeasing in the face of aggression but without knowing more details it seems like a slightly unnecessary provocation to me after China had expressed how unhappy they were about it.

Metaphorical willy waving has never done anything for me.

I agree. There was an uneasy peace in place, in a very delicate situation. What has her visit achieved?

The US Government's position in its support for Taiwan was already clear.

It's the kind of move I would have expected from Trump. It serves no purpose except to look tough and get some headlines. Pushing closer to war is not the same as standing up for our allies.

And now China are going back on previous cooperation on military matters and climate change, two issues that have massive, massive implications for the whole world.

We are in an economic catastrophe right now. I can only imagine how bad it'll be if we end up starting a war without China.

[neil7908]

Unless the good reason is to send the message that “We hear China upping the rhetoric regarding Taiwan, so here’s a friendly reminder that we publicly support them and aren’t afraid to show it”.

Seems a good enough reason to me.

Perhaps if Russia had foreseen how strongly Ukraine would he backed they wouldn’t have invaded. Let’s learn from that lesson and make sure that China knows in no uncertain terms that the west won’t back down on Taiwan it might just avoid conflict rather than instigate it.

I don’t really see the correlation to the Mohammed drawings. Completely different situation in every way.

But surely the west's actions in arming Ukraine ARE the message to China that we will back allies? What does this visit achieve that our actions and words around Ukraine won't?

[neil7908]

China imports around 80% of it's energy needs. As soon as war breaks out, they lose all their imports and the country grinds to a halt within a few months.

They're all talk. They're on the verge of their own collapse and need a common cause to keep the population on side. That's all this is.

Taiwan has a huge damn moat all around it and they've had 70 years to build up their defences.

China on the other hand is surrounded by countries that would become hostile to them and they've got practically no navy to speak of.

They couldn't take it if they wanted. Best they could do is level it but then the Taiwanese can do the same to a huge chunk of China's coastline and major cities.

Another basket case country run by an ********. It's all going to come crashing down.

I doubt a single shot will be fired.

I'm sorry but that's what we heard about Russia at the start of the year - their economy will collapse, Putin will be deposed, the Russians will riot etc.

And none of that has come to pass.

When we're looking at a long recession and 13% inflation in this country I'm not sure we're in a great place to talk abouts the economic impact of war on other countries.

[Stairway 2 7]

I think it's China that has been ramping up the rhetoric for the last 12 months. Some have been seeing it as a forgone conclusion that Taiwan will be attacked before the next Chinese leadership elections. They need to know clearly the rest of the world won't sit back. To be honest I can't see them striking their economy is facing disaster, but you never know with masculinity

[Stairway 2 7]

I'm sorry but that's what we heard about Russia at the start of the year - their economy will collapse, Putin will be deposed, the Russians will riot etc.

And none of that has come to pass.

When we're looking at a long recession and 13% inflation in this country I'm not sure we're in a great place to talk abouts the economic impact of war on other countries.

Russia is having its biggest financial collapse since the fall of the Soviet Union. For the last two months people can't buy a new car or thousands of Western goods. They have lost between a third and a half of their army and vehicles in 5 months. They will be political outsiders for decades. The ruble is worthless outside Russia. EU has stopped buying its coal will stop oil at Christmas and gas in a few years

This is one of the biggest self inflicted self destruction of a nation in the last few centuries

[Smartie]

You could argue all day over historic acts but I know for sure which side I’m on now.


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I know which side I'm on, but one of the reasons I'm on the side I'm on is that we can criticise our own side when we are of the opinion that they may be in the wrong in a particular instance.

[Ozyhibby]

I know which side I'm on, but one of the reasons I'm on the side I'm on is that we can criticise our own side when we are of the opinion that they may be in the wrong in a particular instance.

Bloody right. I think without invading Iraq we would not be in such a terrible state right now.


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[neil7908]

Russia is having its biggest financial collapse since the fall of the Soviet Union. For the last two months people can't buy a new car or thousands of Western goods. They have lost between a third and a half of their army and vehicles in 5 months. They will be political outsiders for decades. The ruble is worthless outside Russia. EU has stopped buying its coal will stop oil at Christmas and gas in a few years

This is one of the biggest self inflicted self destruction of a nation in the last few centuries

They are suffering but the country has not collapsed, Putin is still strongly in power and the war grinds on.

All that economic loss has done nothing to stop the bombs falling and I think its the same with China. Even going back to the Iraq war, economic concerns have rarely been enough to stop a conflict escalating.

[Stairway 2 7]

They are suffering but the country has not collapsed, Putin is still strongly in power and the war grinds on.

All that economic loss has done nothing to stop the bombs falling and I think its the same with China. Even going back to the Iraq war, economic concerns have rarely been enough to stop a conflict escalating.
Russia won't collapse as a nation, Ukraine aren't looking for that they just want the genocide to end. Russia has millions of bombs stored but they can only replace at a certain rate. The level of bombing is tiny compared to what it was in May. That's due to Russia not being able to replace the bombs and HIMARS taking out ammo dumps. Russias military is getting weaker all the time and they can't replace it due to sanctions.

China will not want to be shut off from the global economy, they like profit like the rest of us

[hibsbollah]

You could argue all day over historic acts but I know for sure which side I’m on now.


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It’s not really about whose ‘side’ you’re on, though is it? There are sensitive historical reasons why there’s always going to be issues to do with Taiwan, which isn’t helped by the bizarre decision (Biden?) to send her in there. Foolhardy. Look at South Korea, hardly a friend of China, and having just elected a right wing pro US president, has cancelled a planned meet with Pelosi in a clear signal to the Americans to step the **** away from the situation.

The breakdown of contacts is the last thing the world needs at the moment, even just on the climate change situation.

[Glory Lurker]

Bloody right. I think without invading Iraq we would not be in such a terrible state right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Aye. "Well if it was okay for you, how come it's not okay for us".

[Stairway 2 7]

Stop the war love backing an autocracy. Taiwanese people regularly vote for independence. Would Corbyn back us if we voted for independence or do the uk just get to claim us

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonlis1/status/1555607750218027009

jonlis1
This, by Stop the War, is deeply misleading. Taiwan has never been part of the PRC and the world does not consider it to be. The world (bar 13 countries) simply recognises PRC, not Taiwan, as the ‘legitimate’ post-1949 China. Why is imperialism only bad if it comes from the West?

Andreas Fulda
@AMFChina

A hypocrite is someone who opposes American imperialism but sees no problem in Russian and Chinese imperialism

[hibsbollah]

Stop the war love backing an autocracy. Taiwanese people regularly vote for independence. Would Corbyn back us if we voted for independence or do the uk just get to claim us

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonlis1/status/1555607750218027009

jonlis1
This, by Stop the War, is deeply misleading. Taiwan has never been part of the PRC and the world does not consider it to be. The world (bar 13 countries) simply recognises PRC, not Taiwan, as the ‘legitimate’ post-1949 China. Why is imperialism only bad if it comes from the West?

Andreas Fulda
@AMFChina

A hypocrite is someone who opposes American imperialism but sees no problem in Russian and Chinese imperialism

The Stop the War Coalition is correct, Taiwan is historically part of China and is almost universally acknowledged as such by the international community. The tweeter is also correct, Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. This inconsistency in selective quotations is not new on twitter of course, but is just a sly way of proving inconsistencies where none actually exist. Which is a crap way of conducting an argument and also fairly obvious if you look closely.

IF China ever invades/annexes Taiwan then that's the time to judge if a group of pacifists are demonstrating double standards or not. The last time I checked, they were conducting exercises off their coastline and no-one has died yet thankfully.

[Stairway 2 7]

The Stop the War Coalition is correct, Taiwan is historically part of China and is almost universally acknowledged as such by the international community. The tweeter is also correct, Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. This inconsistency in selective quotations is not new on twitter of course, but is just a sly way of proving inconsistencies where none actually exist. Which is a crap way of conducting an argument and also fairly obvious if you look closely.

IF China ever invades/annexes Taiwan then that's the time to judge if a group of pacifists are demonstrating double standards or not. The last time I checked, they were conducting exercises off their coastline and no-one has died yet thankfully.

They go further than that they say Taiwan is a part of China. Vast majority of Taiwanese see themselves as Taiwanese and not Chinese and vote according. Its about time more people to f off and leave them alone, accept that they want to be a free nation.

[Glory Lurker]

Stop the War is really just Stop the Yanks.

[hibsbollah]

They go further than that they say Taiwan is a part of China. Vast majority of Taiwanese see themselves as Taiwanese and not Chinese and vote according. Its about time more people to f off and leave them alone, accept that they want to be a free nation.

Taiwan IS historically part of China :dunno: It’s fairly straightforward.

[Stairway 2 7]

Taiwan IS historically part of China :dunno: It’s fairly straightforward.

So it should be forever even if the vast majority don't want that. Taiwan wants to be apart of UN and WHO ect but the other nations don't want to anger China. Imagine Scotland gets independence and uk says it will bomb us if we're allowed in the UN. It's pathetic. Why does China want a nation that doesn't want to be apart of them

[hibsbollah]

So it should be forever even if the vast majority don't want that. Taiwan wants to be apart of UN and WHO ect but the other nations don't want to anger China. Imagine Scotland gets independence and uk says it will bomb us if we're allowed in the UN. It's pathetic. Why does China want a nation that doesn't want to be apart of them

…your complaint was with the Stop the War Coalition referring to Taiwan as historically part of China. I imagine this was said within the context of ‘so there’s a local dispute, of which the UN has long been aware, between two nation states next to each other and the US sending massive aircraft carriers around the place and sending Pelosi in like she’s in the ATeam is a bad idea’. In this context, I totally agree with the SWC.

I would NOT agree with them if they said that ‘Taiwan is part of China so China is OK to invade it’. And I’m sure they didn’t say that. Despite Fannies on Twitter suggesting otherwise.

[Ozyhibby]

The whole thing is a bit embarrassing from China. A wannabe superpower lobbing missiles into the sea in a hissy fit like a two bit dictatorship trying to get attention.


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[Stairway 2 7]

…your complaint was with the Stop the War Coalition referring to Taiwan as historically part of China. I imagine this was said within the context of ‘so there’s a local dispute, of which the UN has long been aware, between two nation states next to each other and the US sending massive aircraft carriers around the place and sending Pelosi in like she’s in the ATeam is a bad idea’. In this context, I totally agree with the SWC.

I would NOT agree with them if they said that ‘Taiwan is part of China so China is OK to invade it’. And I’m sure they didn’t say that. Despite Fannies on Twitter suggesting otherwise.

https://www.stopwar.org.uk/article/pelosis-taiwan-visit-is-an-aggressive-step-towards-a-us-war-on-china/

It's a joke of an article. US bad but all China wants is "the peaceful reunification" if they don't want reunification then its conquest and its not going to be peaceful. Its like its been written by Chinese state media. But then again its from the same clowns that said the west was wrong to arm Ukraine. Small nations that want to be independent should just allow been conquered by the dictatorships

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.stopwar.org.uk/article/pelosis-taiwan-visit-is-an-aggressive-step-towards-a-us-war-on-china/

It's a joke of an article. US bad but all China wants is "the peaceful reunification" if they don't want reunification then its conquest and its not going to be peaceful. Its like its been written by Chinese state media. But then again its from the same clowns that said the west was wrong to arm Ukraine. Small nations that want to be independent should just allow been conquered by the dictatorships

Peaceful re-unification is impossible.


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[Stairway 2 7]

Peaceful re-unification is impossible.


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Saw this graph it's people who see themselves just Taiwanese green, mixed stripes, Chinese red.
26091

Huge shift in 30 years, more and more people are being born only knowing independence .

[hibsbollah]

https://www.stopwar.org.uk/article/pelosis-taiwan-visit-is-an-aggressive-step-towards-a-us-war-on-china/

It's a joke of an article. US bad but all China wants is "the peaceful reunification" if they don't want reunification then its conquest and its not going to be peaceful. Its like its been written by Chinese state media. But then again its from the same clowns that said the west was wrong to arm Ukraine. Small nations that want to be independent should just allow been conquered by the dictatorships

:faf: You’re great at the not-very-snappy punchline that bears no resemblance to what is actually being said.

[stoneyburn hibs]

I think it's China that has been ramping up the rhetoric for the last 12 months. Some have been seeing it as a forgone conclusion that Taiwan will be attacked before the next Chinese leadership elections. They need to know clearly the rest of the world won't sit back. To be honest I can't see them striking their economy is facing disaster, but you never know with masculinity

This post is pish , you have no insight as to how the Chinese are thinking.
There economy is facing disaster aye?
Get a new source, you're posting pony.

[Stairway 2 7]

This post is pish , you have no insight as to how the Chinese are thinking.
There economy is facing disaster aye?
Get a new source, you're posting pony.
Another ccp cheerleader. They have constantly provoking Taiwan. Taiwan doesn't want to be united with China. Anyone who is in favour of democracy and self determination would side with them.

What's your sources saying there isn't bad times coming up for China, because everyone i see foresees bad times. World economic forum estimates there population will half from 1.5 billion to 750 million in the next 80 years. We're ****** too but that's another story
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/19/mortgage-strikes-threaten-chinas-economic-and-political-stability
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.voanews.com/amp/china-faces-grim-economic-prospects-experts-say-/6569740.html

[stoneyburn hibs]

Another ccp cheerleader. They have constantly provoking Taiwan. Taiwan doesn't want to be united with China. Anyone who is in favour of democracy and self determination would side with them.

What's your sources saying there isn't bad times coming up for China, because everyone i see foresees bad times. World economic forum estimates there population will half from 1.5 billion to 750 million in the next 80 years. We're ****** too but that's another story
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/19/mortgage-strikes-threaten-chinas-economic-and-political-stability
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.voanews.com/amp/china-faces-grim-economic-prospects-experts-say-/6569740.html

A CCP chearleader? That's lame.With respect
I've got quite a big interest in what is going on in China and get everything first hand.
Your posting of Western links doesn't tell the whole story .

[hibsbollah]

A CCP chearleader? That's lame.With respect
I've got quite a big interest in what is going on in China and get everything first hand.
Your posting of Western links doesn't tell the whole story .

Do the CCP have actual cheerleaders? I’m picturing young pert blonde buxom Chinese with proletarian pompoms.

[Hibrandenburg]

Do the CCP have actual cheerleaders? I’m picturing young pert blonde buxom Chinese with proletarian pompoms.

Having seen their national circus, I'd imagine their gymnastic display will be awesome.

[Bristolhibby]

The fact is they want to be independent from the mainland government and it would be disgusting for them to be forced into a union.

Or as pointed out, prevented from leaving a Union. Especially one that the Taiwan people don’t see as existing.

Let’s be honest, they ain’t the continuity government of mainland China. But they are the Government of Taiwan.

J

[Bristolhibby]

I’m echoing the last poster here, but talking about China and ‘imperialism’ is ridiculous. Make a list of countries China have invaded militarily and compare and contrast to (for example) the US, who have been throwing their aircraft carriers around the South China Sea for months now without apparent media interest. Remember this is right on Chinas borders. Can you imagine Chinese military exercises off the coast of Texas and it be treated with any other intent than preparation for war? China is a corrupt oligarchy with a terrible human rights record against its own people but it is the exact opposite of an imperialist expansionist power. Let’s have some historical accuracy.

Tibet.

Specks of dirt in the South China Sea that they turn into military bases so they can access mineral rights, Vietnam none too happy.

There’s also soft imperialism. Like the massive “investment” in Africa. Could also be called bribes to set their stall out again on mineral rights in African countries.

See also the Belt and Road Initiative. Investing in and controlling trade through countless countries in Central Asia.

Imperialism doesn’t need to be behind the barrel of the gun. But Tibet is most definitely the obvious answer.

J

[hibsbollah]

Tibet.

Specks of dirt in the South China Sea that they turn into military bases so they can access mineral rights, Vietnam none too happy.

There’s also soft imperialism. Like the massive “investment” in Africa. Could also be called bribes to set their stall out again on mineral rights in African countries.

See also the Belt and Road Initiative. Investing in and controlling trade through countless countries in Central Asia.

Imperialism doesn’t need to be behind the barrel of the gun. But Tibet is most definitely the obvious answer.

J

Wouldn’t you describe Tibet as internal repression? Geographically it’s inside China, historically it’s inside China, you don’t need to have a positive view of what the Chinese have done there to think it’s in no way about growing an empire.

Re your last point, I agree, but that’s a critique of capitalism rather than China specifically.

[stoneyburn hibs]

Do the CCP have actual cheerleaders? I’m picturing young pert blonde buxom Chinese with proletarian pompoms.

Can't get this image out of my head, not complaining though.

[Paul1642]

A CCP chearleader? That's lame.With respect
I've got quite a big interest in what is going on in China and get everything first hand.
Your posting of Western links doesn't tell the whole story .

“Western media doesn’t tell the whole story”

What on earth does Chinese media tell then. The Chinese government’s propaganda whist censoring all criticism. I’ll stick with western media thanks.

[WhileTheChief..]

I'm sorry but that's what we heard about Russia at the start of the year - their economy will collapse, Putin will be deposed, the Russians will riot etc.

And none of that has come to pass.

When we're looking at a long recession and 13% inflation in this country I'm not sure we're in a great place to talk abouts the economic impact of war on other countries.

It's been 5 months.

Russia has been changed for ever. Let's see how they're doing this time next year.

[WhileTheChief..]

The whole thing is a bit embarrassing from China. A wannabe superpower lobbing missiles into the sea in a hissy fit like a two bit dictatorship trying to get attention.


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:top marksYup, that's all it is.

China aren't going to gain anything from this, it's simply made its neighbours sit up and realise they need to increase military spending.

The US is pulling out of the area. It's only because they have been there that China has been able to trade so much and so freely. When the US leaves, everything changes.

India, who are no friends of the Chinese, will become the power broker in the region. Everything going East from Europe or the Persian Gulf needs to go straight by India. It will be up to them who gets to do so and at what 'price'.

[Stairway 2 7]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1555934842117832706

@RobinBrooksIIF
China is in trouble. Away from Taiwan headlines, capital outflows are now as big as in the RMB devaluation scare of 2015/6. That's due to the strong Dollar, which drove outflows in 2015/6, and foreign investors looking at China in a new light after Russia's invasion of Ukraine

[Stairway 2 7]

Military exercise over

nexta_tv

#China completed its military exercises near #Taiwan. Chinese state media said the military would now conduct "regular" exercises on the Taiwan side of the line and that the "historic task of reunifying China" could be realized

[neil7908]

Interesting article imo:

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/07/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-china-visit-military

[Stairway 2 7]

Thread on the Chinese economy and its dependence on the housing market

https://mobile.twitter.com/GrahamStephan/status/1559878464114724865

@GrahamStephan
The Chinese economy is experiencing a near-complete collapse.

Nearly half a million customers have lost their deposits as the banks lent indiscriminately to housing developers who are now facing cascading defaults.

Here’s the story the Chinese Govt. doesn't want you to know

[Ozyhibby]

Thread on the Chinese economy and its dependence on the housing market

https://mobile.twitter.com/GrahamStephan/status/1559878464114724865

@GrahamStephan
The Chinese economy is experiencing a near-complete collapse.

Nearly half a million customers have lost their deposits as the banks lent indiscriminately to housing developers who are now facing cascading defaults.

Here’s the story the Chinese Govt. doesn't want you to know

I would say there is almost zero chance our banks have no exposure and it’s likely it will affect things here as well.
I amazes me how little reporting it’s getting.


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[Stairway 2 7]

I would say there is almost zero chance our banks have no exposure and it’s likely it will affect things here as well.
I amazes me how little reporting it’s getting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yep China having major difficulties would hammer the world, including Scotland. They own so many different aspects of our economy, too many companies don't care as long as the money is right

[Mon Dieu4]

I would say there is almost zero chance our banks have no exposure and it’s likely it will affect things here as well.
I amazes me how little reporting it’s getting.


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The one good thing about the last crash means banks had to ringfence their money between retail and investment and international banking so at least the core everyday banking won't be effected in the event of another crash

[Ozyhibby]

The one good thing about the last crash means banks had to ringfence their money between retail and investment and international banking so at least the core everyday banking won't be effected in the event of another crash

That’s if the banks have been doing the right thing.


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[Mon Dieu4]

That’s if the banks have been doing the right thing.


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They get stress tested on an annual basis, so as long as they have been towing the line, wouldn't surprise me if that wasn't the case though

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/bokeriris/status/1560536999588667394?s=21&t=DAQ78pscPPo3BPDmGvuN-g

China knocking down unfinished housing due to collapse of the market.


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[Nazz]

https://twitter.com/bokeriris/status/1560536999588667394?s=21&t=DAQ78pscPPo3BPDmGvuN-g

China knocking down unfinished housing due to collapse of the market.

It's not true. The twitter poster has just assembled a collection of buildings getting demolished from around China or elsewhere with no time frame at all. The video sequence of many buildings coming down simultaneously isn't recent. It happened about a year ago in Kunming. I know about it because I saw it on Chinese TV last year.

[makaveli1875]

https://twitter.com/bokeriris/status/1560536999588667394?s=21&t=DAQ78pscPPo3BPDmGvuN-g

China knocking down unfinished housing due to collapse of the market.


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Funnily enough I watch a documentary about Chinese housing and they build these large housing blocks , leave them empty for a few years , knock them down and rebuild them again . They build 20 times the number of houses they actually need every year. It drives their economic growth just constantly building , demolishing and building some more

[Stairway 2 7]

With the population expected to go from 1.4 billion to 700 and odd million in the next 80 years, they are going to need to knock down an unbelievable amount

[Stairway 2 7]

https://mobile.twitter.com/adrianzenz/status/1565096331525472258

Un report into chinas treatment of Uyghur . Report concludes that Beijing's actions in Xinjiang (especially detentions) "may constitute international crimes, in particular crimes against humanity"

What will be done, nothing

[hibsbollah]

https://mobile.twitter.com/adrianzenz/status/1565096331525472258

Un report into chinas treatment of Uyghur . Report concludes that Beijing's actions in Xinjiang (especially detentions) "may constitute international crimes, in particular crimes against humanity"

What will be done, nothing

The Guardian has a link to the 48 page report and shorter summary if you want the source material.

What they found was that the political climate that was whipped up, and the use of two words in a nebulous way in the courts, 'Terrorism' and especially 'Exrremism' , allowed for the abuses to take place. They locked up street demonstrators, found that by calling them extremists you could put them in for re-education, and then all bets are off. Once you give a green light to torture, mass detention and subhuman treatment it becomes universal.

[Stairway 2 7]

The Guardian has a link to the 48 page report and shorter summary if you want the source material.

What they found was that the political climate that was whipped up, and the use of two words in a nebulous way in the courts, 'Terrorism' and especially 'Exrremism' , allowed for the abuses to take place. They locked up street demonstrators, found that by calling them extremists you could put them in for re-education, and then all bets are off. Once you give a green light to torture, mass detention and subhuman treatment it becomes universal.

Not sure if you've seen Adam Curtis's power of nightmares documentaries. Talks of the US and UK getting away with horrible crimes by building up the terrorist fear. Its on iplayer again, very similar pater
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p088s5rv

[hibsbollah]

Not sure if you've seen Adam Curtis's power of nightmares documentaries. Talks of the US and UK getting away with horrible crimes by building up the terrorist fear. Its on iplayer again, very similar pater
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p088s5rv

I saw a couple ages ago, he's very good.

There is a direct causal link between post 9/11 War and Terror, Guantanamo Bay Abu Ghraib, and the suspension of normal legal due process when The West was fighting Islamism, and China's feeling of carte blanche post 2013 to deal with THEIR Islamism problem in Central Asia. As well as trade dependency, thats why 'nothing will be done' as you say. You just have to look at China Govts tweets and comments by ambassadors about 'USAs human rights abuses' which amounts to pure trolling.

UNHRC calling for Guantanamo to be closed this January, unbelievable to think it's STILL operational despite promises by Obama and others.

[He's here!]

https://mobile.twitter.com/adrianzenz/status/1565096331525472258

Un report into chinas treatment of Uyghur . Report concludes that Beijing's actions in Xinjiang (especially detentions) "may constitute international crimes, in particular crimes against humanity"

What will be done, nothing

Horrendous.

[hibsbollah]

It's also apparent that what China is attempting is the erasure of an ancient culture, literally millions of ethnic Han Chinese coerced to move to Xinjiang to dilute the ethic mix, re-education and language and religious freedoms completely removed.

[Stairway 2 7]

China is going to see depopulation like we've never seen before. Could go from 1.4 billion to under 500 million in 80 years. Half empty towns and cities imminent.

https://mobile.twitter.com/shortl2021/status/1566670780943011840
@shortl2021
I have always found Japanese end-of-century population forecasts pretty amazing, but they are nothing compared with the new estimates coming out for China. The decline is just jaw-dropping.

https://wsj.com/articles/chinas-economic-slump-bodes-ill-for-birth-numbers-11662289200

[Scorrie]

It's also apparent that what China is attempting is the erasure of an ancient culture, literally millions of ethnic Han Chinese coerced to move to Xinjiang to dilute the ethic mix, re-education and language and religious freedoms completely removed.

Follows on with what they did or are doing to Tibet. UN resolution condemned it but nobody enforcing it

[Smartie]

Did they not have restrictions on the numbers of children that people in China could have fairly recently?

[hibsbollah]

Follows on with what they did or are doing to Tibet. UN resolution condemned it but nobody enforcing it

The General Assembly's job when they pass a resolution is to pass it on to the Security Council for action. The 5 permanent members? France, UK, USA, Russia, China. End of discussion. Thats also why the UN resolution for Israel to get out of the occupied territories has been ignored for over 50 years. The US has a veto as a WW2 winner.

[Ozyhibby]

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast/id1462649946?i=1000577915684

David McWilliams podcast on china’s property bust.


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[Ozyhibby]

China is going to see depopulation like we've never seen before. Could go from 1.4 billion to under 500 million in 80 years. Half empty towns and cities imminent.

https://mobile.twitter.com/shortl2021/status/1566670780943011840
@shortl2021
I have always found Japanese end-of-century population forecasts pretty amazing, but they are nothing compared with the new estimates coming out for China. The decline is just jaw-dropping.

https://wsj.com/articles/chinas-economic-slump-bodes-ill-for-birth-numbers-11662289200

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1566806384838152193?s=21&t=39H9SG7bsqM9ILBDWQaFiw


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[Stairway 2 7]

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1566806384838152193?s=21&t=39H9SG7bsqM9ILBDWQaFiw


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Great thread, really strange times

[Lendo]

Rumours on twitter that Xi Jin Ping has been overthrown by the PLA and is under house arrest.

[Pretty Boy]

Rumours on twitter that Xi Jin Ping has been overthrown by the PLA and is under house arrest.

Wouldn't be a massive shock.

There's a big shake up of the party due and he's been indulging in a purge in the lead up to it. Influential security advisor who was a big noise in one of the factions being chucked in jail for life won't have gone down well with a not insignificant number of important people.

[Lendo]

Number of planes on Flight Radar over Beijing in single figures too. Definitely something afoot. What fresh hell can the world expect now…..

[Smartie]

https://www.dw.com/en/former-adviser-sees-influence-by-chinese-president-xi-jinping-in-putins-recent-decisions/a-63217909

Very interesting to read this rumour, as I'd only read this article earlier today.

[Stairway 2 7]

France , Japan and now Germany have now had official visits since Pelosi. Not much fanfare for them. Hopefully things can normalise

https://m.dw.com/en/taiwan-does-germany-parliamentary-visit-risk-antagonizing-china/a-63329462

[Stairway 2 7]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShanghaiMacro/status/1577303888696426496

ShanghaiMacro
This is exactly what we informed our clients in the latest report. Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent trip to the US was very unusual. With Russia’s fall from grace inevitable, Beijing has made the strategic decision to repair its relations with the West
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3194737/xi-jinping-may-recalibrate-after-miscalculation-siding-russia-henry

[WhileTheChief..]

Really good update on the situation facing the Chinese gov…


https://youtu.be/eaRjk0U80Q0

[He's here!]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63358627

Sinister?

[Stairway 2 7]

https://bylines.scot/news/scotland/defence-and-security/china-accused-of-operating-secret-police-facility-in-glasgow-to-target-dissidents/

China accused of operating ‘secret police’ facility in Glasgow to target dissidents

[cabbageandribs1875]

meanwhile, Scholz visiting Beijing Europe struggles to hold ranks against China and Xi Jinping as Germany defies EU with business trip to Beijing (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/europe-struggles-to-hold-ranks-against-china-and-xi-jinping-as-germany-defies-eu-with-business-trip-to-beijing/ar-AA13xwTo?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b576d4d1f91a4ec9b5ce81a3e9f18d49)


“Considering what’s going on in China, it’s in their interests to divide us. It should be in our interests to stay united,” said Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.
“It is also important that we don’t have separate deals with China, because that would mean we are weak as a union.”


Mr Scholz has even drawn criticism within Germany earlier this month for giving the green light to the disputed sale of a stake in a Hamburg container terminal to China’s state-owned Cosco.
The Chancellor, a former mayor of Hamburg, overrode opposition to the sale by six ministries, including those of defence, economy and foreign affairs, who all raised concerns about critical infrastructure falling into foreign hands.
He has even run up against his own Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, from the Green Party, who has attacked businesses for building up their dependency on China.
“Complete economic dependence based on the principle of hope makes us politically blackmailable,” she said.

[cabbageandribs1875]

i mean, where do most fathers take their 13 year old daughters for a fun day out

North Korea warns of 'all-out' nuclear weapons response to 'threats' from U.S., allies (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/north-korea-warns-of-all-out-nuclear-weapons-response-to-threats-from-u-s-allies/ar-AA14j8XH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=846f7156dcb349809ca44a9cf5b07c4b#image=1)

https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA14iQe4.img?w=534&h=354&m=6

[Stairway 2 7]

Crazy anti lockdown protest in China. Stemming from a fire that killed 12 people in an apartment block that was locked down quite literally, only one entrance not bolted and public told to stay in building whilst fire burned

https://mobile.twitter.com/Byron_Wan/status/1596585000866320386
You won’t believe this: the people on Urumqi Middle Road in Shanghai are yelling “共产党、下台! 共产党、下台!” (Communist Party, step down! Communist Party, step down!)

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZhangTaisu/status/1596598506260959234
ZhangTaisu
If you’ve been following Chinese politics for long enough, you have to wonder whether the anti-lockdown protests are getting near the point where a serious top-down nationwide crackdown becomes pretty much inevitable…

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1596592293372432384

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/nathanlawkc/status/1596613307489607680?s=46&t=DRovj-UF7oCB2uQMwOQJCQ


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[Stairway 2 7]

Almost every city. Unrest not seen since tiananmen.
https://mobile.twitter.com/dtiffroberts/status/1596445116671361026

Every country has to let it rip eventually. The smart countries did it soon after everyone was vaccinated. Most of China was vaccinated over a year ago, so protection will have waned. Can see health services being overwhelmed and no easy answers

[hibsbollah]

Almost every city. Unrest not seen since tiananmen.
https://mobile.twitter.com/dtiffroberts/status/1596445116671361026

Every country has to let it rip eventually. The smart countries did it soon after everyone was vaccinated. Most of China was vaccinated over a year ago, so protection will have waned. Can see health services being overwhelmed and no easy answers

Have you watched that footage? It consists of less than five people dragging some corrugated metal around and the rest of the onlookers using their phones to film out of curiosity (all still wearing masks, incidentally).

There may well be significant unrest in China in the future. ‘Unrest not seen since Tiananmen? There’s no evidence there.

[Stairway 2 7]

Have you watched that footage? It consists of less than five people dragging some corrugated metal around and the rest of the onlookers using their phones to film out of curiosity (all still wearing masks, incidentally).

There may well be significant unrest in China in the future. ‘Unrest not seen since Tiananmen? There’s no evidence there.

Are you seriously just talking about that one video and not the hundreds online. What about the ones further up the thread with crowds smashing up pcr testing stations. This is a huge deal for China's regime who have had a tight control of the public. You don't realise how big a deal mass protests are



https://mobile.twitter.com/lolc936163/status/1595421244236566536
Peter Frankopan
@Oxfordu
·
Most serious moment since Tiananmen in 89. Hard to see the genie get put back in the bottle. A soft touch needed; a hammer much more likely to come next. And then who knows

[Stairway 2 7]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63735923.amp

Zero-Covid China asks: Is World Cup on another planet?

[Ozyhibby]

https://twitter.com/bbcnewspr/status/1597000489513537536?s=46&t=fzBKBUzXGFNoOlAVm1-h6A


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[Stairway 2 7]

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/chinese-communist-party-faces-threat-not-seen-since-protests-that-led-to-tiananmen-square-massacre-12756809

Chinese Communist Party faces threat not seen since protests that led to Tiananmen Square massacre

[Smartie]

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/chinese-communist-party-faces-threat-not-seen-since-protests-that-led-to-tiananmen-square-massacre-12756809

Chinese Communist Party faces threat not seen since protests that led to Tiananmen Square massacre

I've just been watching some of these clips.

Not the sort of thing you often see in China, pretty mad.

[goosano]

A good analysis of the situation in China with respect to Covid.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1596834202569175040?t=U6NYYM2sxcw_tqOPQmqvsA&s=19

[Glory Lurker]

A second balloon, this time over Latin America. I'm sure both sides do stuff that winds each other up that we don't hear about, but China's acknowledgement that the first one suggests this is more than just one of those things.

[NORTHERNHIBBY]

A second balloon, this time over Latin America. I'm sure both sides do stuff that winds each other up that we don't hear about, but China's acknowledgement that the first one suggests this is more than just one of those things.

If it's just a weather monitoring balloon, then China should have no objection if the US look towards bringing it down safely before it does any harm.

[Glory Lurker]

Russia is small fry against this lot.

[cabbageandribs1875]

Honduras has ended diplomatic relations with Taiwan and has instead formed relations with China


only 13 countries remaining recognise Taiwan