Can Hibernian really challenge Old Firm this season?

[Allez Hibs]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/58713216

Would love to think so.

It has been 46 years since Hibernian finished higher than third in the Scottish top flight.

Seven games into the current campaign and they are unbeaten in second place, one point behind Rangers, with the chance to go top of the league with victory at Ibrox on Sunday.

With Celtic's rebuild under Ange Postecoglou off to a rocky start, and champions Rangers yet to replicate their form of last year, is there an opportunity for Hibs to finish ahead of one, or even both of the Glasgow giants?

Consistency

Hibs finished third in head coach Jack Ross' first full season in charge of the club last term, which was comfortably ahead of Aberdeen but still 14 points behind Celtic, who were themselves 25 points off Rangers.

Since the former St Mirren and Sunderland boss replaced Paul Heckingbottom in November 2019 with the club toiling, results have steadily improved.

Thanks to good coaching and a steady squad build, Hibs upped their points-per-game figure from 1.38 in Ross' first 18 league games (before the 2019/20 was curtailed) to 1.66 last season, rising to 2.14 this campaign so far, albeit after only seven games.

In Martin Boyle and Kevin Nisbet, they have two of the league's best attackers, with Celtic the only side to score more goals in the league this season, with Postecoglou's men and Rangers the sole teams to have had more shots.

Defensively, they have managed to keep four clean sheets in their seven league games so far, with Dundee United the only side to beat that with five from eight having played one game more.

Keeping hold of Boyle - the league's current top scorer - Nisbet, Josh Doig, and Ryan Porteous amid interest in recent transfer windows has kept Hibs strong at both ends of the pitch, while goalkeeper Matt Macey has become a solid presence in goals.

Jake Doyle-Hayes has been a tidy addition, while good coaching has brought the best from fellow midfielders Kyle Magennis and Scott Allan in recent weeks.

Consistency in the dugout and in the squad has helped the Leith club form a solid base.

More resilience

The question is whether Hibs can now kick on and compete at the league summit beyond Christmas, and not just fade back into the pack.

Key to that is greater resilience, which has often held them back. Ross has fixed an inherited weakness at set pieces, but last term his side were accused of faltering at key moments, mainly in the cups.

They were undone in both knockout competitions by a wily St Johnstone side they were expected to beat, and in the league they sometimes struggled to grind out results when not playing well, only managing to win three games in a row on two occasions.

So far this season, the indications are they are more resilient. Nowhere was that more evident last Sunday when playing St Johnstone, their bogey team who had beaten them four times out of six last term.

There was fortune about their winning goal from the penalty spot, but they found a way to win with a number of players either missing or not at full fitness.

"We've not been as good as we were earlier in the season, but we've been resilient," Ross told BBC Scotland after Sunday's win.

"We've been tough and dug out points and reached another [League Cup] semi-final. I think that's a sign of how much that this team is continuing to grow."

[https://ichef]*does not include the 2019/20 season, which was curtailed due to Covid-19

The challenges

So are a newly-steeled Hibs ready to overhaul one, or both of the Old Firm? It is an incredibly difficult task.

The average number of points required to finish second in the Premiership since it was rebranded in 2013/14 is 74, which is 11 more than Hibs got last year when they finished third.

That average is across a spell when Rangers were either in the second tier or not functioning at full capacity, and while Celtic were poor by their own standards last term, they still got 77 points.

Aberdeen were the last team to split the Old Firm, doing so in 2016/17 and 17/18 when they got 76 and 73 points respectively. Hibs' club record is 67, when they finished fourth in 2018.

It would take a huge effort from Ross and his players then, to get enough points to finish in the top two, especially given the top flight is widely regarded as the strongest it has been in years.

Even if Celtic - currently in sixth - or Rangers were both to have below par seasons, there is still unbeaten Hearts to contend with across the city, plus other well-drilled teams throughout the division who can take points from any side.

Then there is the looming question of injuries. Ross revealed Boyle, Magennis, and Nisbet have not been training fully recently in order to get through games, and there are longer-term absentees like Christian Doidge, while Doig picked up a hamstring injury last weekend.

Ross has made Hibs a tactically flexible side, who can switch between a back three and four at will, but for any team to have a run at the top two, they need to keep players off the treatment table.

Hibs will not be expected to do so, but a win at Ibrox - where Rangers have won 21 of their last 22 league games - would be an impressive statement.

"We've got a brilliant game to look forward to and massive motivation to go to Ibrox and win to try to go top of the league," Ross said.

[jgl07]

No.

Stupid question!

[Onceinawhile]

No

[Ronniekirk]

Not with our injury list and the couple of players we missed out on in last window
Rangers to play Their best game of the season tomorrow no doubt
Let’s see where we are come next transfer window and business done then could be crucial to where we eventually finish up


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Carheenlea]

Doesn’t look like this will be a spirit lifting thread.

[SMAXXA]

No neither will Hearts

[Sir David Gray]

No chance sadly.

[SHODAN]

I'll answer later tomorrow.

[Franck Stanton]

No, don't have a big enough squad

[SJNB Hibby]

I know it's easy to say no, but in 50 years do we seriously think, looking back, that the OF will have been 1st and 2nd for that entire time?
Rangers aren't unbeaten..Celtic are in dire straights. I sincerely hope that our clubs best hope for this year isn't 3rd

[davy67 +]

It's a nice thought, but I doubt it . Injuries, suspensions and a lack of consistency will come into play , plus we have to worry about losing players when the window opens again , also I'd imagine Celtic are bound to improve at some point . My Dad another lifelong Hibs supporter has always maintained that we always struggled with the heavy pitches during the winter months as our players are too lightweight , being the best of the rest and making cup finals is our best hope I'd say

[jgl07]

The fact that this match is not televised sums up the terminal state that Scottish football is in.

There is supposed to be a TV deal yet the vast majority of matches shown are Sevco or Celtic away. When was the last time that one of their matches in Glasgow was televised when not playing the other cheek of the arse?

It is nearing the time when this has to be challenged if Scottish football is to survive. It is getting far to late I fear?

[BegbieHSC]

I’ll answer tomorrow at 16:45…

[BegbieHSC]

The fact that this match is not televised sums up the terminal state that Scottish football is in.

There is supposed to be a TV deal yet the vast majority of matches shown are Sevco or Celtic away. When was the last time that one of their matches in Glasgow was televised when not playing the other cheek of the arse?

It is nearing the time when this has to be challenged if Scottish football is to survive. It is getting far to late I fear?

Televising the Old Firm’s home games would impact on stadium attendance from travelling glory hunters.

The SPFL and television companies are hand in glove in maintaining the Old Firm’s stranglehold on the league.

Only country in the world where the “big two” don’t have home games televised, outwith playing each other.

[Hibbyradge]

Lol

[Libby Hibby]

Yes, why not? We have a good team. Tomorrow will not define our season.

[B.H.F.C]

Celtic are there to be challenged.

Not saying we will, but if ever there was a chance it’s this year IMO.

[LunasBoots]

No and neither will Hearts, as a season goes on and injuries and fatigue set in those with the bigger squads will take advantage.

[The Harp Awakes]

Would love to say yes, but sadly the answer is no. With Doidge our starting 11 is decent. However, we won't have Doidge until November at best and Nisbet is out of form.

We have no threat from the bench either. Poor recruitment and/or youngster development has not helped.

[B.H.F.C]

Would love to say yes, but sadly the answer is no. With Doidge our starting 11 is decent. However, we won't have Doidge until November at best and Nisbet is out of form.

We have no threat from the bench either. Poor recruitment and/or youngster development has not helped.

On the point about Doidge they’re hoping to have him back early November so hopefully only another half a dozen games, tops, without him.

On the recruitment point, I do hope we’re not sitting in a few months time saying ‘if only’ we’d got another couple in we could have challenged.

[SMAXXA]

On the point about Doidge they’re hoping to have him back early November so hopefully only another half a dozen games, tops, without him.

On the recruitment point, I do hope we’re not sitting in a few months time saying ‘if only’ we’d got another couple in we could have challenged.

I don’t even think it will be as many as half a dozen games we have a couple of week break coming up I’m sure

[B.H.F.C]

I don’t even think it will be as many as half a dozen games we have a couple of week break coming up I’m sure

Six games between now and the 6th of November which is the last game before an international break. Busy end to October as we play Celtic midweek.

[CMurdoch]

Afraid we are well off the pace this season.
Draws to Dundee and St Mirren puts us 4 points behind even a modest points target.
The loss of Doidge has and will continue to hurt us.

Celtic will pick up when Jullian returns and is up to speed.
They are playing like lemmings at the back at the moment but still have a lot of quality attacking players.

[Peevemor]

Afraid we are well off the pace this season.
Draws to Dundee and St Mirren puts us 4 points behind even a modest points target.
The loss of Doidge has and will continue to hurt us.

Celtic will pick up when Jullian returns and is up to speed.
They are playing like lemmings at the back at the moment but still have a lot of quality attacking players.

So 19 points from a possible 21 would be a "modest points target" ? I've seen it all now!

[King Cosell]

Winning points total 2001/02 - 2020/21:

103, 97, 98, 93, 91, 94, 89, 86, 87, 93, 93, 79, 99, 92, 83, 106, 82, 87, 80*, 102

I don't see Rangers or Celtic getting a huge points total this season, but I can't really see Hibs getting, at the very most, 80 points.

Possible, but highly unlikely.

[Dalianwanda]

It’s a bit ironic when so many say players need to have belief that so many supporters dont. Going on stats it’s unlikely but on a game by game basis every chance.

[Iain G]

Afraid we are well off the pace this season.
Draws to Dundee and St Mirren puts us 4 points behind even a modest points target.
The loss of Doidge has and will continue to hurt us.

Celtic will pick up when Jullian returns and is up to speed.
They are playing like lemmings at the back at the moment but still have a lot of quality attacking players.

Well of the pace? If we win at Ibrox today we go top of the league again!

[hibbydog]

It’s a bit ironic when so many say players need to have belief that so many supporters dont. Going on stats it’s unlikely but on a game by game basis every chance.

See that’s the thing. We have an outside chance in a one off game, but over a season the difference is they have 4 x the playing budget so have better players and much bigger squads so can deal with injuries, suspensions, loss of form, more options off the bench etc. This is why we can be top of the league until October latest.

We might win the occasional battle, but they’ll always win the war.

[Dalianwanda]

See that’s the thing. We have an outside chance in a one off game, but over a season the difference is they have 4 x the playing budget so have better players and much bigger squads so can deal with injuries, suspensions, loss of form, more options off the bench etc. This is why we can be top of the league until October latest.

We might win the occasional battle, but they’ll always win the war.

Loss of form by players to deal with and injuries are things we have dealt with up until now this season. I do agree that with a smaller squad it’s more difficult but it’s not a given that we cant. Again is it ok for so many fans to not have faith when some can be quick enough to judge, if we suspect the same of the players.

[lord bunberry]

The question is will anyone be able to challenge us.

[twiceinathens]

Regretfully no

[Greenio]

'Challenge'?

What does that mean?

Win the league? Nah

Come second? Why not.

If Celtic implode and sack their manager, quite plausible that they will lose as many games as we will

Comes down to the heads to heads

[hibbydog]

Loss of form by players to deal with and injuries are things we have dealt with up until now this season. I do agree that with a smaller squad it’s more difficult but it’s not a given. Again is it ok for so many fans to not have faith when some can be quick enough to judge if we suspect the same of the players.

I have faith. That’s why I turn up every other week. But I don’t hope for anything higher than third. And even that’s occasional. We’ve finished third like 3 times in the last 20 years. Other than that Hibs have been in the doldrums.

It’s a case of realistic expectations, borne by years and years worth of proof. The biggest factor that dictates whether someone can challenge the Glasgow two is budget. And that’s old firm proper: the Aberdeen mini golden period when Sevco were in the lower leagues doesn’t count.

Hearts changed their budget 2005-2006 and deservedly split the ugly sisters. But see where that got them.

So unless something huge changes, I just don’t see it happening for anyone anytime soon.

[Keith_M]

No.

[Brightside]

The answer remains no. Spending power over the season will win.

[GreenCastle]

Rangers will win the league. Though even their fans think they aren’t as strong as last season - not playing as well.

Celtic well going through massive transition. Hearts played them at the perfect time in the league (the cup game they lost) - they have improved since but still not great. The more points they drop though the more confidence it will give others.

Hibs well are lack of recruit has already made us drop points and we haven’t exactly been playing that well but we are still up there. Dropping some points to bottom 6 level teams means we will have to start picking up points from the Old Firm / Aberdeen / Hearts. Something Jack Ross is slowly improving.

Hearts - have recruited very well. A really good spine of a team - Beni / Woodburn / Boyce / Devlin and Gordon all playing well plus others form has picked up. Beni / Boyce and and Gordon massive for them though so Hearts need them to stay injury free.

This week and next will be interesting to see how Hibs do at Ibrox then how Hearts do at Ibrox.

If Aberdeen and Celtic draw today the gap starts to open up slightly.

I think it was be Rangers / Celtic / Hibs / Hearts as top 4 but not sure about the order 2nd to 4th.

[Dalianwanda]

I have faith. That’s why I turn up every other week. But I don’t hope for anything higher than third. And even that’s occasional. We’ve finished third like 3 times in the last 20 years. Other than that Hibs have been in the doldrums.

It’s a case of realistic expectations, borne by years and years worth of proof. The biggest factor that dictates whether someone can challenge the Glasgow two is budget. And that’s old firm proper: the Aberdeen mini golden period when Sevco were in the lower leagues doesn’t count.

Hearts changed their budget 2005-2006 and deservedly split the ugly sisters. But see where that got them.

So unless something huge changes, I just don’t see it happening for anyone anytime soon.

Im sure you do..By no means was I having a dig :greengrin I suppose it comes down to definition whats the difference between faith hope & expectation? I would think having faith in something means you trust them to do the business. Hoping might mean you would really love it if they did. Expectation would mean going on stats etc we probably wont which if we believe then we cant have faith. My heads starting to spin..

Years and years of proof meant nothing to Leicester or Brentford. They just had decent spells where everything fell for them. I really cant see how that cant be the same for us & I would expect the players to feel exactly the same.

[Nicho87]

No.

We didn’t even sign a striker when everyone knew we were short

Hearts, Aberdeen, Motherwell and us simply don’t have the depth

Happens every season

Simply no chance

[Squealing pig]

If Leicester can win the premier anything can happen , let’s keep the dream until it’s not possible 🏆 settle for a cup win though tbh

[wookie70]

This year may be our best chance for a long time but I think the The Thes are too strong. They will win nearly all their home games, they don't even need to give away fans tickets. Our home form may be our undoing. I do think Celtc are very weak and we and Hearts have a chance of finishing above them

[superfurryhibby]

History and common sense says no.

Faith and optimism says that we may just have the players and a manager capable enough to split the OF. I travel more in hope than expectation.

[darwenhibby]

I think winning a cup
Qualify again for Europe and progress further is the next stage for the Hibs
Bigger budgets is the key by creating more revenue
Getting 16000 home fans at Easter Road and more in the south stand is the key for Category B games
One step at a time at the pace since 2016 and we’ll get there
GGTTH

[Key West]

My opinion would be no, although the progress of the team on the pitch has been obvious we simply don’t have the quality to make that kind of difference, it can only be addressed by a significant investment and even then it is not guaranteed, sometimes Celtic and The Rangers even with their huge advantages struggle to get the better of inferior opponents.

[B.H.F.C]

No.

We didn’t even sign a striker when everyone knew we were short

Hearts, Aberdeen, Motherwell and us simply don’t have the depth

Happens every season

Simply no chance

I’m not sure Celtic being as bad as they look presently happens every season though. To ever challenge either of them they have to have an absolute shocker and I think there is potential for them to have an absolute shocker. Rangers, I think, will find a level of consistency at some point.

[Nicho87]

I’m not sure Celtic being as bad as they look presently happens every season though. To ever challenge either of them they have to have an absolute shocker and I think there is potential for them to have an absolute shocker. Rangers, I think, will find a level of consistency at some point.

Totally get that Celtic have been rotten compared by seasons gone by

Just think over 38 games hibs and others lack of depth will say no to second by at least 9 points

Even for Celtic being as poor as they have been they have still struck off two games at home 6-0

They do have a bad injury list to be fair to them and imo will only improve

Let’s just aim for third and a cup win - sensible expectations

[bigwheel]

Let’s see where we are after the first round of games are complete …that will be a guide to how consistent and strong we are

[WhileTheChief..]

If we had strengthened properly in the summer we could maybe have challenged for 2nd place.

I think we'll do well to hit 3rd again.

We've really got to make a couple of decent signings in January that come straight into the team to help.

[weecounty hibby]

Of course we can you miserable *******s. Got to keep dreaming! May not be this year, or next but who knows? I bet Leicester fans probably wouldn't have thought they could win the league either

[Eyrie]

This season? No.

Going forward, of course we can. All we need is an extra £20m per year in the playing budget.

So in the real world, never.

[chrisski33]

Strong chance of finishing ahead of Celtic this season going by their current form and doubt we will beat sevco today.
We dont have the funds to spend at Christmas like the ugly two do if things arent rosy for them.

[Juice-Terry]

Defeatist p**h! YES! GGTTH!

[FilipinoHibs]

KTF and dare to dream.

[Wilson]

No.

[MWHIBBIES]

I think just consistency is the most important thing in building the club up. You stay top 4 for 4 or 5 years, maybe win a cup, get into the euro group stages once or twice, that will truly transform the club. That is the kind of success we need before we can challenge for the title.

[hibbydog]

Im sure you do..By no means was I having a dig :greengrin I suppose it comes down to definition whats the difference between faith hope & expectation? I would think having faith in something means you trust them to do the business. Hoping might mean you would really love it if they did. Expectation would mean going on stats etc we probably wont which if we believe then we cant have faith. My heads starting to spin..

Years and years of proof meant nothing to Leicester or Brentford. They just had decent spells where everything fell for them. I really cant see how that cant be the same for us & I would expect the players to feel exactly the same.

No worries, and apologies if I sounded defensive.

Loving your optimism. Hopefully we can revisit this thread at 5 o clock having given the bigoted cheats a right old skelping 😎

GGTTH

[Since452]

No. There has been countless times when the OF have been split in October. Will be the same old story in May.

[GreenCastle]

I think just consistency is the most important thing in building the club up. You stay top 4 for 4 or 5 years, maybe win a cup, get into the euro group stages once or twice, that will truly transform the club. That is the kind of success we need before we can challenge for the title.

Then like Aberdeen you change manager and end up mid table.

[Since452]

Then like Aberdeen you change manager and end up mid table.

That should be a warning to Hibs. There will be a time when Jack Ross leaves but a punt isn't the way to go when he does.

[where'stheslope]

If Leicester can win the premier anything can happen , let’s keep the dream until it’s not possible 🏆 settle for a cup win though tbh
If we get the £100 million they got the season before they won it, then we will win the league!
Until then cup and 2nd place is probably the best we can do!!!

[Since452]

If Leicester can win the premier anything can happen , let’s keep the dream until it’s not possible 🏆 settle for a cup win though tbh

They were paying Vardy 100k a week before they won the league. Not the fairytale people make out. Completely different ball game.

[MWHIBBIES]

Then like Aberdeen you change manager and end up mid table. I think the problem was he left too late, and they managed the transition very badly. If he went at the begining of last season and they used the covid season to sort things out, they'd be better off for it.

[JimboHibs]

Yes, why not? We have a good team. Tomorrow will not define our season.

The last 46 years have defined our season's , so no.

[Hibby Kay-Yay]

They were paying Vardy 100k a week before they won the league. Not the fairytale people make out. Completely different ball game.

In relation to the big clubs they had a quarter of the wages available during that season. It’s a fair reflection in my view for people to use Leicester as an example for smaller clubs to achieve what most think is impossible.

[B.H.F.C]

They were paying Vardy 100k a week before they won the league. Not the fairytale people make out. Completely different ball game.

They won the league with a bunch of rejects.

Doubt very much Vardy was earning remotely close to that at that point, he wasn’t anywhere near a proven player at that level at that point.

They were 5000/1.

[Keith_M]

In relation to the big clubs they had a quarter of the wages available during that season. It’s a fair reflection in my view for people to use Leicester as an example for smaller clubs to achieve what most think is impossible.


That's a good point, but we've now gone thirty six seasons in a row of only two clubs winning the league and their budget's must be at least ten times what we have.

[Hibby Kay-Yay]

That's a good point, but we've now gone thirty six seasons in a row of only two clubs winning the league and their budget's must be at least ten times what we have.

Yeah, it makes it extremely unlikely for any team outside the OF, but not impossible.

[Squealing pig]

They were paying Vardy 100k a week before they won the league. Not the fairytale people make out. Completely different ball game.

Is on the grand scheme of budgets in the prem but I get your point , I’ll be happy with 2nd

[Wakeyhibee]

I cant see it, any team outside the OF struggles past October to keep any challenge going. Injuries, suspensions and squad depth/resources sees to that. Even if you get to December the Jan window for strengthening sees them buy their way out usually.

[Northernhibee]

Celtic look really, really average and there are a number of their players who wouldn’t make our starting eleven - Hart, Starfelt, Welsh etc.

It might be a close battle for second.

[Pagan Hibernia]

Celtic look really, really average and there are a number of their players who wouldn’t make our starting eleven - Hart, Starfelt, Welsh etc.

It might be a close battle for second.

if they don’t spend in January they’re not finishing second.

[Dalianwanda]

Ok i take it back…Ive faith in the manager & team to do the business ive no faith in those running the game to do the right thing.

[Allez Hibs]

If VAR was in place this season, Hibs would be challenging as refereeing like today wouldn't happen.

[Spike Mandela]

Nope. Money and the football authorities won’t let anyone challenge again in our lifetimes.

[Sir David Gray]

Today proves why we won't challenge.

[A Hi-Bee]

Finances and corruption dictates that the answer to the question would unfortunately no.
Our wee fitba league is about as corrupt as the little known Albanian league, perhaps that is an injustice to the Albanian league but you will get my drift.

[Hibernian Verse]

If VAR was in place this season, Hibs would be challenging as refereeing like today wouldn't happen.

We also wouldn’t have had pens last week at ER and Tannadice

[weecounty hibby]

Today shows that just as VAR will never be brought in as it won't benefit the bigots, neither will any club ever challenge them. No other clubs in world football get decisions like they do and also get away with so much. Scottish football is corrupt to the core and it honestly now has me questioning why I bother with a ST. Hibs need to be strong on this with some strong words from JR and anyone else who is interviewed. We should also be making official complaints about it. Also ban those dirty bigoted *******s from ER while we Don get anyone into their midden. Everything in Scottish football is geared towards the bigots

[Carheenlea]

I’m feeling pretty confident we will see them off at Hampden in November. More worried about inept officials than Rangers themselves. They’re nothing special.

[LunasBoots]

Today shows that just as VAR will never be brought in as it won't benefit the bigots, neither will any club ever challenge them. No other clubs in world football get decisions like they do and also get away with so much. Scottish football is corrupt to the core and it honestly now has me questioning why I bother with a ST. Hibs need to be strong on this with some strong words from JR and anyone else who is interviewed. We should also be making official complaints about it. Also ban those dirty bigoted *******s from ER while we Don get anyone into their midden. Everything in Scottish football is geared towards the bigots

Doubt he'll say anything, we rarely do after decades of cheating officials.

[Wilson]

I’m feeling pretty confident we will see them off at Hampden in November. More worried about inept officials than Rangers themselves. They’re nothing special.

We can certainly compete in a one off game. I'm entirely satisfied with the performances we put in in games against the OF. We need a bit more quality (depth) to get us over the line in these encounters.

Competing for the title over a season is a more expensive proposition.