One for the stattos

[Cat Stanton]

Got the usual mocking messages from non-Hibs fans yesterday when Hibs threw away a 2-0 lead. One was from a St. Mirren fan who could only dream of ever being 2-0 in the first place. But anyway, made me wonder: given all the stats and stattos (stattoes?) out there, does anyone know which clubs are more likely to draw/lose from a winning position (especially when two or more goals out in front)? I presume it must be able to be calculated from all the stats that are gathered regularly these days. Just curious. Ta.

[Gordy M]

I heard an interview after the game with Jack Ross who said that we are a good front running team when we go a goal up, so i assume our record is pretty good.

[Is It On....]

Got the usual mocking messages from non-Hibs fans yesterday when Hibs threw away a 2-0 lead. One was from a St. Mirren fan who could only dream of ever being 2-0 in the first place. But anyway, made me wonder: given all the stats and stattos (stattoes?) out there, does anyone know which clubs are more likely to draw/lose from a winning position (especially when two or more goals out in front)? I presume it must be able to be calculated from all the stats that are gathered regularly these days. Just curious. Ta.

Hearts famously lost a 2 goal lead in the Scottish Cup a few years ago. Luckily it ended in a draw so they got a money spinning replay 😂

[007]

Hearts famously lost a 2 goal lead in the Scottish Cup a few years ago. Luckily it ended in a draw so they got a money spinning replay 😂

It's no fair, extra time and penalties yesterday robbed us of a money spinning replay. 😃

[Frazerbob]

I’ve seen loads of comments like ‘typical Hibs’ and ‘we need to stop throwing away 2 goal leads’ on the various Facebook pages. I can only think of one other time we’ve drawn after being 2 up, 2-2 versus Celtc.

[Danderhall Hibs]

I’ve seen loads of comments like ‘typical Hibs’ and ‘we need to stop throwing away 2 goal leads’ on the various Facebook pages. I can only think of one other time we’ve drawn after being 2 up, 2-2 versus Celtc.

Yeah - we’re as guilty of creating this perception as anyone else. Lost a lead to Utd and Celtic this season from memory. That’s all yet some are acting as if it’s a common occurrence.

[Sir David Gray]

We haven't lost after scoring the first goal all season.

[Hibbyradge]

We haven't lost after losing the first goal all season.

I'm not sure what you meant to say, but I'll take it at face value.

We lost 3 times to The Rangers after losing the first goal.

And Motherwell, St Johnstone, Livingston, Celtic etc etc

:greengrin

[Danderhall Hibs]

I'm not sure what you meant to say, but I'll take it at face value.

We lost 3 times to The Rangers after losing the first goal.

And Motherwell, St Johnstone, Livingston, Celtic etc etc

:greengrin

Could be “scoring” instead of “losing”?

[Sir David Gray]

I'm not sure what you meant to say, but I'll take it at face value.

We lost 3 times to The Rangers after losing the first goal.

And Motherwell, St Johnstone, Livingston, Celtic etc etc

:greengrin

Scoring. :greengrin

[LongJohnBanger]

Got the usual mocking messages from non-Hibs fans yesterday when Hibs threw away a 2-0 lead. One was from a St. Mirren fan who could only dream of ever being 2-0 in the first place. But anyway, made me wonder: given all the stats and stattos (stattoes?) out there, does anyone know which clubs are more likely to draw/lose from a winning position (especially when two or more goals out in front)? I presume it must be able to be calculated from all the stats that are gathered regularly these days. Just curious. Ta.

I need to update the figures but at the split, in 192 fixtures 176 of them had goals.

I forget the exact number (and I don't have it in front of me) but it was something like 75% of the time the team who scored first went on to win the game.

In Hibs 16 league victories, they had gone ahead in 15 out of 16 occasions, the other being Ross County.

In each of Hibs defeats, we did not score but that was a pattern that emerged throughout the league - score to nil victories.

What that suggested to me was, teams who go in front are really good at keeping the lead and stopping others from scoring.

Because of the suggestion that Hibs couldn't "come from behind" (we named a Longbangers episode after it), I wanted to prove or disprove the narrative Hibs fans seem to label ourselves with so I got the pen and paper out and started jotting things down.

There was no 'typical Hibs' that I could see.

[Hibbyradge]

I need to update the figures but at the split, in 192 fixtures 176 of them had goals.

I forget the exact number (and I don't have it in front of me) but it was something like 75% of the time the team who scored first went on to win the game.

In Hibs 16 league victories, they had gone ahead in 15 out of 16 occasions, the other being Ross County.

In each of Hibs defeats, we did not score but that was a pattern that emerged throughout the league - score to nil victories.

What that suggested to me was, teams who go in front are really good at keeping the lead and stopping others from scoring.

Because of the suggestion that Hibs couldn't "come from behind" (we named a Longbangers episode after it), I wanted to prove or disprove the narrative Hibs fans seem to label ourselves with so I got the pen and paper out and started jotting things down.

There was no 'typical Hibs' that I could see.

How come you get 2 accounts? :grr:

[Cat Stanton]

I need to update the figures but at the split, in 192 fixtures 176 of them had goals.

I forget the exact number (and I don't have it in front of me) but it was something like 75% of the time the team who scored first went on to win the game.

In Hibs 16 league victories, they had gone ahead in 15 out of 16 occasions, the other being Ross County.

In each of Hibs defeats, we did not score but that was a pattern that emerged throughout the league - score to nil victories.

What that suggested to me was, teams who go in front are really good at keeping the lead and stopping others from scoring.

Because of the suggestion that Hibs couldn't "come from behind" (we named a Longbangers episode after it), I wanted to prove or disprove the narrative Hibs fans seem to label ourselves with so I got the pen and paper out and started jotting things down.

There was no 'typical Hibs' that I could see.

Cheers. What about in recent years (when the expression I won't mention started getting banded about)?

[scoopyboy]

All teams have lost two goal leads or maybe even three.

Hearts v Hibs 2016 :greengrin:greengrin:greengrin

Off the top of my head,

Rangers 3-1 up against Benfica before drawing 3-3 this season.

Tottenham 3-0 up against West Ham before drawing 3-3, again this season, West Brom 3-0 up on Chelsea and drawing 3-3.

Tottenham 3-0 up against Man Utd before losing 5-3.

AC Milan 3-0 up on Liverpool in Champions League Final.

Hibs 3-0 up against Celtic in the 1972 Dryburgh Cup Final, pulled back to 3-3 at full time before winning 5-3 after extra time.

Hibs 2-0 up against AEK Athens before getting a winner after being pulled back to 2-2.

I would wager every team has lost two goal leads.

[LongJohnBanger]

Cheers. What about in recent years (when the expression I won't mention started getting banded about)?

How far back you looking to go?

Unless I find an easy place to filter this stuff down, I'll need a wee bit time to jot it all down. Not an impossible task, just a timely one.

Apologies: just saw the other comment. I'll look back to 2015.

[hibbysam]

I’ve seen loads of comments like ‘typical Hibs’ and ‘we need to stop throwing away 2 goal leads’ on the various Facebook pages. I can only think of one other time we’ve drawn after being 2 up, 2-2 versus Celtc.

We tend to see games out very well nowadays, but on the odd occasion we concede one, we tend to go to pieces and end up holding on for dear life, or conceding a second. We rarely shrug it off and go again when conceding.

[Cat Stanton]

How far back you looking to go?

Unless I find an easy place to filter this stuff down, I'll need a wee bit time to jot it all down. Not an impossible task, just a timely one.

Apologies: just saw the other comment. I'll look back to 2015.

Many thanks.

[LongJohnBanger]

Many thanks.

Interesting...

I started off tallying everything and got as far as jotting down all results from Hibs 2015/2016 Championship Seaaon.

In 2015/2016, the Championship results were similar to what I'd found in the pre-split Premiership results from this season.

There were 180 games (I counted 182 but it was half three in the morning and I couldn't sleep) in that Championship seaaon:

In 126 games, the team who scored first won (73%)
In 30 games, the team who conceded first came back to get a draw (17%)
In 16 games, the team who condeded first came back to win (10%)

In the 2015/2016 Championship season up to this season's Premiership split:

In 186 games, Hibs have been 2 goals or more ahead and been pegged back to draw, lose or gone on to win on 11 occasions (6%) of the time.

Notable games in that period were when the defence was down to the bare bones and Liam Fontaine got injured against Dunfermline. We were 2 nil up and drew 2-2. Marvin Bartley cameod in defense for a spell before some half time changes.

Hibs 5-5 Rangers. Chasing a possible second, caught out on the break. Found ourselves 5-3 down before getting back to 5-5.

[matty_f]

How come you get 2 accounts? :grr:

He doesn’t!

[LongJohnBanger]

How come you get 2 accounts? :grr:

I do?

[MWHIBBIES]

All teams have lost two goal leads or maybe even three.

Hearts v Hibs 2016 :greengrin:greengrin:greengrin

Off the top of my head,

Rangers 3-1 up against Benfica before drawing 3-3 this season.

Tottenham 3-0 up against West Ham before drawing 3-3, again this season, West Brom 3-0 up on Chelsea and drawing 3-3.

Tottenham 3-0 up against Man Utd before losing 5-3.

AC Milan 3-0 up on Liverpool in Champions League Final.

Hibs 3-0 up against Celtic in the 1972 Dryburgh Cup Final, pulled back to 3-3 at full time before winning 5-3 after extra time.

Hibs 2-0 up against AEK Athens before getting a winner after being pulled back to 2-2.

I would wager every team has lost two goal leads.

If only AC Milan had a leader like Nesta, Maldini, Stam, Gattuso, Shevchenko, Cafu or Kaka to get them through and defend leads.

[Cat Stanton]

Interesting...

I started off tallying everything and got as far as jotting down all results from Hibs 2015/2016 Championship Seaaon.

In 2015/2016, the Championship results were similar to what I'd found in the pre-split Premiership results from this season.

There were 180 games (I counted 182 but it was half three in the morning and I couldn't sleep) in that Championship seaaon:

In 126 games, the team who scored first won (73%)
In 30 games, the team who conceded first came back to get a draw (17%)
In 16 games, the team who condeded first came back to win (10%)

In the 2015/2016 Championship season up to this season's Premiership split:

In 186 games, Hibs have been 2 goals or more ahead and been pegged back to draw, lose or gone on to win on 11 occasions (6%) of the time.

Notable games in that period were when the defence was down to the bare bones and Liam Fontaine got injured against Dunfermline. We were 2 nil up and drew 2-2. Marvin Bartley cameod in defense for a spell before some half time changes.

Hibs 5-5 Rangers. Chasing a possible second, caught out on the break. Found ourselves 5-3 down before getting back to 5-5.


Thanks very much. Sorry you were up at half three in the morning doing this...

So the answer is 11 games out of 186 = 6%. But to know whether that makes Hibs more, less or just as likely to do this compared to other teams (i.e. whether there is anything in the accusation), we'd need to have the same figures for other teams.

Doing anything much tonight...?

[Caversham Green]

All teams have lost two goal leads or maybe even three.

Hearts v Hibs 2016 :greengrin:greengrin:greengrin

Off the top of my head,

Rangers 3-1 up against Benfica before drawing 3-3 this season.

Tottenham 3-0 up against West Ham before drawing 3-3, again this season, West Brom 3-0 up on Chelsea and drawing 3-3.

Tottenham 3-0 up against Man Utd before losing 5-3.

AC Milan 3-0 up on Liverpool in Champions League Final.

Hibs 3-0 up against Celtic in the 1972 Dryburgh Cup Final, pulled back to 3-3 at full time before winning 5-3 after extra time.

Hibs 2-0 up against AEK Athens before getting a winner after being pulled back to 2-2.

I would wager every team has lost two goal leads.

The one that stands out for me was Reading being 4-0 up against Arsenal after about half an hour. 4-1 at half time and they went on to lose 5-7 after extra time IIRC.

[LongJohnBanger]

Thanks very much. Sorry you were up at half three in the morning doing this...

So the answer is 11 games out of 186 = 6%. But to know whether that makes Hibs more, less or just as likely to do this compared to other teams (i.e. whether there is anything in the accusation), we'd need to have the same figures for other teams.

Doing anything much tonight...?

No apology needed, couldn't sleep so I spent my time productively.

I've got all the data saved, just need to bend it to my will and report back.

[hibby6270]

All teams have lost two goal leads or maybe even three.

Hearts v Hibs 2016 :greengrin:greengrin:greengrin

Off the top of my head,

Rangers 3-1 up against Benfica before drawing 3-3 this season.

Tottenham 3-0 up against West Ham before drawing 3-3, again this season, West Brom 3-0 up on Chelsea and drawing 3-3.

Tottenham 3-0 up against Man Utd before losing 5-3.

AC Milan 3-0 up on Liverpool in Champions League Final.

Hibs 3-0 up against Celtic in the 1972 Dryburgh Cup Final, pulled back to 3-3 at full time before winning 5-3 after extra time.

Hibs 2-0 up against AEK Athens before getting a winner after being pulled back to 2-2.

I would wager every team has lost two goal leads.

Falkirk semi in the cup 2013. 0-3 down at half time. We won 4-3.

And best of the lot, albeit over 2 legs, Napoli 1967 1-4 down after first leg in Italy, 5-0 at ER, 6-4 aggregate win.

[jgl07]

The best one I can recall was in 2004 when Manchester City were 3-0 down at half time to Tottenham at White Hart Lane. City were also on 10 men as Joey Barton was sent off before the interval..

City won 4-3 with the last goal coming on 90 minutes.

[JeMeSouviens]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/9384154.stm

[green with envy]

All teams have lost two goal leads or maybe even three.

Hearts v Hibs 2016 :greengrin:greengrin:greengrin

Off the top of my head,

Rangers 3-1 up against Benfica before drawing 3-3 this season.

Tottenham 3-0 up against West Ham before drawing 3-3, again this season, West Brom 3-0 up on Chelsea and drawing 3-3.

Tottenham 3-0 up against Man Utd before losing 5-3.

AC Milan 3-0 up on Liverpool in Champions League Final.

Hibs 3-0 up against Celtic in the 1972 Dryburgh Cup Final, pulled back to 3-3 at full time before winning 5-3 after extra time.

Hibs 2-0 up against AEK Athens before getting a winner after being pulled back to 2-2.

I would wager every team has lost two goal leads.

I remember my first SC tie at ER, circa 1974, when Kilmarnock went to 2-0 up and we came back to win 5-2. I also remember attending my first away game on the excursion from St Andrew's bus station, away to Dumbarton when again we were 2-0 down and Arthur Duncan scored a last minute winner to make it it 3-2.

[Killiehibbie]

Bet365 pay out when a team goes 2 goals ahead. That would suggest to me it doesn't happen that often.

[Bristolhibby]

We tend to see games out very well nowadays, but on the odd occasion we concede one, we tend to go to pieces and end up holding on for dear life, or conceding a second. We rarely shrug it off and go again when conceding.

Yes this. If Hibs go behind bookies should be paying out. I think that’s where we middle the perception.

Also scarring events like being ahead v them 4-2 in the 89th minute and ending up drawing 4-4. That said, that was I reckon almost 20 years ago!

Oh and the 6-6 v Motherwell.

J

[Cat Stanton]

No apology needed, couldn't sleep so I spent my time productively.

I've got all the data saved, just need to bend it to my will and report back.

Good man. I shall wait patiently...

Seriously - thanks.

[LongJohnBanger]

Good man. I shall wait patiently...

Seriously - thanks.

Would you believe I had a hefty post written and I was logged out of .net while I had my tea?

Mega caveat before I get into it - I've sourced the data and sifted through it but I've got no formal background in this kind of thing so please allow a bit of generosity in any critique. If the information below looks or smells funny, let me know and I'll see if I can resolve it or clarify it.

The information came from www.football-data.co.uk.

I referred to it previously but I've not included Hibs time in the Championship in the 2015/2016 or 2016/2017 seasons, simply because it made it easier for me to have a fuller, like-for-like comparison in the Premiership and meant I didn't have to track teams who were perhaps relegated from the Championship.

I started by sorting the data in alphabetical order by the home team and then filtered on home teams who scored 2 goals or more and away teams who scored 2 goals or more in the same game. We're not interested in 1-0 or 3-1 for the purposes of this exercise.

The teams I'd found who'd had a two goal lead and conceded it for a loss, draw or gone on to win are as follows:

Celtic - 1 (<1%)
Hibernian - 7 times (4.6%)
Kilmarnock - 3 (1.97%)
Motherwell - 1 (<1%)
Rangers - 2 (1.31%)
Ross County - 1 (<1%)
Hamilton - 3 (1.97%)
Livingston - 2 (1.31%)
St. Mirren - 1 (<1%)

The figure for Hibs wasn't what I wanted to see so I wanted to dive a bit deeper to try and provide a bit of context.

In 2017/2018, there were two occasions when Hibs had a two goal lead and surrendered it, both ending in a draw. Once versus Motherwell and the other, notably, the 5-5 Rangers game. For the purposes of accuracy, I counted Hibs and Rangers as both surrendered a two goal lead or greater in this game (Hibs being 3-0 up, going 5-3 down and finishing 5-5).

In 2018/2019, there were two occasions when Hibs had a two goal lead and surrendered it, one ending in a draw and the other with Hibs seeing out the win (Dundee 2-2 and Kilmarnock 3-2 respectively).

In 2019/2020, there were two occasions when Hibs had a two goal lead and surrendered it, both ending in a draw (Kilmarnock and Ross County).

In 2020/2021, there's been one occasion where we've had a two goal lead and surrendered it for a draw, Celtic equalising in the final minute.

By this point I'm giving mother****ing Jacques Cousteau a wave as I'm on my way to the Laurentian Abyss....

How many times over that period have we scored 2 or more without conceding the lead?

In 2017/2018, it happened 10 times.

In 2018/2019, it happened 10 times.

In 2019/2020, it happened 8 times.

In 2020/2021, it happened 8 times.

If the data is right, if I've captured it correctly and my workings are correct, over the last four seasons:

In 1 in every 20 games we've scored 2 or more but been pegged back with a worst case scenario of a draw.

In 1 in every 4 games, we've scored 2 or more goals and gone on to win.

I don't think it would be fair to say that there's a trend given the small sample size but there's certainly a hint that as we've tightened up at the back by not giving up a 2 goal lead, there have been fewer occasions where we've scored two goals or more.

How does that compare with other teams? No idea. I've reached the bottom.

[Cat Stanton]

Would you believe I had a hefty post written and I was logged out of .net while I had my tea?

Mega caveat before I get into it - I've sourced the data and sifted through it but I've got no formal background in this kind of thing so please allow a bit of generosity in any critique. If the information below looks or smells funny, let me know and I'll see if I can resolve it or clarify it.

The information came from www.football-data.co.uk (http://www.football-data.co.uk).

I referred to it previously but I've not included Hibs time in the Championship in the 2015/2016 or 2016/2017 seasons, simply because it made it easier for me to have a fuller, like-for-like comparison in the Premiership and meant I didn't have to track teams who were perhaps relegated from the Championship.

I started by sorting the data in alphabetical order by the home team and then filtered on home teams who scored 2 goals or more and away teams who scored 2 goals or more in the same game. We're not interested in 1-0 or 3-1 for the purposes of this exercise.

The teams I'd found who'd had a two goal lead and conceded it for a loss, draw or gone on to win are as follows:

Celtic - 1 (<1%)
Hibernian - 7 times (4.6%)
Kilmarnock - 3 (1.97%)
Motherwell - 1 (<1%)
Rangers - 2 (1.31%)
Ross County - 1 (<1%)
Hamilton - 3 (1.97%)
Livingston - 2 (1.31%)
St. Mirren - 1 (<1%)

The figure for Hibs wasn't what I wanted to see so I wanted to dive a bit deeper to try and provide a bit of context.

In 2017/2018, there were two occasions when Hibs had a two goal lead and surrendered it, both ending in a draw. Once versus Motherwell and the other, notably, the 5-5 Rangers game. For the purposes of accuracy, I counted Hibs and Rangers as both surrendered a two goal lead or greater in this game (Hibs being 3-0 up, going 5-3 down and finishing 5-5).

In 2018/2019, there were two occasions when Hibs had a two goal lead and surrendered it, one ending in a draw and the other with Hibs seeing out the win (Dundee 2-2 and Kilmarnock 3-2 respectively).

In 2019/2020, there were two occasions when Hibs had a two goal lead and surrendered it, both ending in a draw (Kilmarnock and Ross County).

In 2020/2021, there's been one occasion where we've had a two goal lead and surrendered it for a draw, Celtic equalising in the final minute.

By this point I'm giving mother****ing Jacques Cousteau a wave as I'm on my way to the Laurentian Abyss....

How many times over that period have we scored 2 or more without conceding the lead?

In 2017/2018, it happened 10 times.

In 2018/2019, it happened 10 times.

In 2019/2020, it happened 8 times.

In 2020/2021, it happened 8 times.

If the data is right, if I've captured it correctly and my workings are correct, over the last four seasons:

In 1 in every 20 games we've scored 2 or more but been pegged back with a worst case scenario of a draw.

In 1 in every 4 games, we've scored 2 or more goals and gone on to win.

I don't think it would be fair to say that there's a trend given the small sample size but there's certainly a hint that as we've tightened up at the back by not giving up a 2 goal lead, there have been fewer occasions where we've scored two goals or more.

How does that compare with other teams? No idea. I've reached the bottom.

Thank you very much indeed for doing that. It answers the question and is much appreciated.

As always, you can use statistics in different ways to support/refute an argument. So although you've showed that in 4 seasons,we threw away two-goals leads more than other teams, it also happened in very few games indeed: 7 out of roughly 150 games over 4 years. So it's nonsense to say that it happens a lot. It just doesn't.

The other relevant context is that some teams (i.e. those at the bottom in particular seasons) just don't get themselves in a position of being two goals up anyway. As I said before, my St. Mirren supporting pal (who started this whole line of enquiry) would have given his right arm (in some seasons) to have thrown away a two-goal lead if that meant actually being two up in the first place.

Anyway, brilliant - well done and thanks again.

[Magpie]

The best one I can recall was in 2004 when Manchester City were 3-0 down at half time to Tottenham at White Hart Lane. City were also on 10 men as Joey Barton was sent off before the interval..

City won 4-3 with the last goal coming on 90 minutes.

Spurs have been involved in a few over the years, also came back from 2-0 down against Ajax in the Champions League Semi Final.

The highest deficit comeback I can recall is Newcastle 4-4 Arsenal. Arsenal were 4-0 up I believe.

[erin go bragh]

Bet365 pay out when a team goes 2 goals ahead. That would suggest to me it doesn't happen that often.
You would be surprised at how many times it does happen .

[Killiehibbie]

You would be surprised at how many times it does happen .

Looking at those stats above it would suggest less than a 2% chance.