Nations League

[SHODAN]

If last night wasn't enough, we only have to win one of our games away at Slovakia or Israel to earn promotion to the top tier of the Nations League next season, and with it an almost guaranteed playoff place for the World Cup. We can theoretically lose both games and still get promoted, given we're four points ahead as it stands.

Is it just me or has this tournament ended up being fantastic for Scotland?

[SChibs]

If last night wasn't enough, we only have to win one of our games away at Slovakia or Israel to earn promotion to the top tier of the Nations League next season, and with it an almost guaranteed playoff place for the World Cup. We can theoretically lose both games and still get promoted, given we're four points ahead as it stands.

Is it just me or has this tournament ended up being fantastic for Scotland?

I think it's been good for Scotland because we are playing teams at a similar level to us often. We dont really learn much from being hammered by the top seeds of hammering the bottom seeds. By playing teams around us it gives us a measure of improvement

[Sir David Gray]

Both Scotland and Slovakia had big away wins last night, it will be interesting to see how both teams respond. Some of the Scotland players looked emotionally drained at full time.

[Billy Whizz]

Both Scotland and Slovakia had big away wins last night, it will be interesting to see how both teams respond. Some of the Scotland players looked emotionally drained at full time.

Wonder if they flew back to Scotland last night, or stayed local to have a short trip to Slovakia
Same for Israel next week too

[SJNB Hibby]

If last night wasn't enough, we only have to win one of our games away at Slovakia or Israel to earn promotion to the top tier of the Nations League next season, and with it an almost guaranteed playoff place for the World Cup. We can theoretically lose both games and still get promoted, given we're four points ahead as it stands.

Is it just me or has this tournament ended up being fantastic for Scotland?

It's actually easier than that. 2 Draws sees us through.
We could lose 2 and qualify if Slovakia beat us and the Czechs, and the Czechs beat Israel

Only thing about playing a lower level opponent all the time is the wins haven't boosted us too far up the FIFA rankings, couple of good results next week and we might break the top 40

[SHODAN]

It's actually easier than that. 2 Draws sees us through.
We could lose 2 and qualify if Slovakia beat us and the Czechs, and the Czechs beat Israel

Only thing about playing a lower level opponent all the time is the wins haven't boosted us too far up the FIFA rankings, couple of good results next week and we might break the top 40

I imagine we have no chance of getting into Pot 2 for the WC qualifying draw?

[Green Man]

I imagine we have no chance of getting into Pot 2 for the WC qualifying draw?

I think we’re too far down. Before last night we were about the middle of pot 3, so while we might go up a wee bit it won’t be enough.

[Brightside]

I'm assuming we will see a lot of call offs for these games?

[Green Man]

It’s also worth nothing that the route to the World Cup playoffs is different to the Euro playoffs. There are 10 playoff spots for teams finishing second in the WC qualifying groups and only 2 available through the Nations League, both of which go to Nations League group winners.

[SJNB Hibby]

I think we’re too far down. Before last night we were about the middle of pot 3, so while we might go up a wee bit it won’t be enough.
In the last FIFA rankings, we were the 25th European team, so highly unlikely.

[SJNB Hibby]

I'm assuming we will see a lot of call offs for these games?
I dont think there will be many call-offs, not now we've qualified for the Euros:rolleyes:. But he'll likely rotate through the squad, especially for the Sunday game. As somebody else said, will be an interesting match between 2 emotionally drained teams

[SHODAN]

I'm assuming we will see a lot of call offs for these games?

Nah. Players will want to make their case for the squad now.

[G B Young]

If last night wasn't enough, we only have to win one of our games away at Slovakia or Israel to earn promotion to the top tier of the Nations League next season, and with it an almost guaranteed playoff place for the World Cup. We can theoretically lose both games and still get promoted, given we're four points ahead as it stands.

Is it just me or has this tournament ended up being fantastic for Scotland?

I wouldn't call dumbing down our routes to qualifcation fantastic for the standard of our game.

[B.H.F.C]

I wouldn't call dumbing down our routes to qualifcation fantastic for the standard of our game.

Don’t know if you actually watched the game last night? If you did you would see us dominate a team who have a number of top players, playing in top leagues around Europe. We played some good football with our own top players, who are playing at really good levels.

If you want to continue with the talk about how it is all ‘dumbed down’ rather than recognise the huge improvement we’ve made since the start of the ‘dumbed down’ process then crack on but is that no just being negative for the sake of it?

[JimBHibees]

Wonder if they flew back to Scotland last night, or stayed local to have a short trip to Slovakia
Same for Israel next week too

Given they seemed to still be in Belgrade this lunchtime assuming they will fly to a Slovakia from Serbia. Probably also then fly to Israel from there for Wednesday.

[CropleyWasGod]

I wouldn't call dumbing down our routes to qualifcation fantastic for the standard of our game.

Winning away to Serbia, ranked 30th in the world (15 places above us) is "dumbing down"? Not only winning, but playing them off the park.

Our longest unbeaten run in 44 years :cb

[B.H.F.C]

Winning away to Serbia, ranked 30th in the world (15 places above us) is "dumbing down"? Not only winning, but playing them off the park.

Our longest unbeaten run in 44 years :cb

Can’t understand why folk want to look for a negative in something so positive. As if life hasn’t been depressing enough for the last 8 months!

The team are going in the right direction and have loads of improvement in them. A whole generation are going to get to witness something they’ve never seen before, Scotland playing at a major tournament.

[HibsGW]

Don’t know if you actually watched the game last night? If you did you would see us dominate a team who have a number of top players, playing in top leagues around Europe. We played some good football with our own top players, who are playing at really good levels.

If you want to continue with the talk about how it is all ‘dumbed down’ rather than recognise the huge improvement we’ve made since the start of the ‘dumbed down’ process then crack on but is that no just being negative for the sake of it?

Exactly, if you can’t be positive after what the players achieved last night then why bother

[CMurdoch]

I dont think there will be many call-offs, not now we've qualified for the Euros:rolleyes:. But he'll likely rotate through the squad, especially for the Sunday game. As somebody else said, will be an interesting match between 2 emotionally drained teams

Fortunate to be playing another country that played for 2 hours last night although it must be said they were only playing Northern Ireland who gifted them their goals.
Think our guys will be physically and mentally destroyed and we will badly miss Dykes......but still not lose.

[JimBHibees]

I wouldn't call dumbing down our routes to qualifcation fantastic for the standard of our game.

Nothing to do with dumbing down our performances obviously improving both as individuals and team.

[JimBHibees]

Can’t understand why folk want to look for a negative in something so positive. As if life hasn’t been depressing enough for the last 8 months!

The team are going in the right direction and have loads of improvement in them. A whole generation are going to get to witness something they’ve never seen before, Scotland playing at a major tournament.

Agree totally obviously doesn't like Scotland much and wants to criticise.

[Iggy Pope]

I wouldn't call dumbing down our routes to qualifcation fantastic for the standard of our game.

Scotland were accomplished all over the park last night. Talented players in every position. A good deal of them playing their game in Scotland. Circular route to qualification certainly but a lot trickier than other teams who have qualified, have had to face. Pretty cheerless stuff from you.

[hibbysam]

It’s also worth nothing that the route to the World Cup playoffs is different to the Euro playoffs. There are 10 playoff spots for teams finishing second in the WC qualifying groups and only 2 available through the Nations League, both of which go to Nations League group winners.

However if we get promoted into tier 1, then majority of the rest of the teams will qualify directly into playoffs or automatically, so there is a big chance of being one of the two remaining.

[Sir David Gray]

Both Scotland and Slovakia had big away wins last night, it will be interesting to see how both teams respond. Some of the Scotland players looked emotionally drained at full time.

Based on the scenes from last night, I'd be lumping it on Slovakia on Sunday if I was a betting man!

[Iggy Pope]

Based on the scenes from last night, I'd be lumping it on Slovakia on Sunday if I was a betting man!


Certainly looked like a team on the batter! In other news I’d be lumping on Aberdeen notching up a lockdown tier based on other scenes last night.

[Keyser Sauzee]

Does the national teams ranking have any bearing on the club sides coefficient in European rankings?

[Juniper Greens]

I imagine we have no chance of getting into Pot 2 for the WC qualifying draw?

We needed to win in normal time on Thursday to still have a chance.... terrible result haha

[G B Young]

Scotland were accomplished all over the park last night. Talented players in every position. A good deal of them playing their game in Scotland. Circular route to qualification certainly but a lot trickier than other teams who have qualified, have had to face. Pretty cheerless stuff from you.

Yes I accept it sounds cheerless in the wake of the euphoria around qualification, but the fact remains that the only teams we beat to get to the play-off were Israel and Albania. There also seemed to be much over-egging of what a dynamite side Serbia are when in fact they're only ranked 30th in the world - hardly a monumental scalp when you consider Scotland are 45th.

As others have pointed out on another thread, this just doesn't stack up as the success it's being billed as. We failed dismally (as usual) in the qualication group proper and were thrown a lifeline by the Nations League which seems to me to be set up in order to allow teams who weren't otherwise good enough the chance to play at a major tournament. I don't really understand its rationale.

Granted Scotland appear to be developing into a different beast under Clarke, but Covid has given him a lot of unexpected additional time to develop the team and I'll be a lot more impressed when we qualify for a tournament via the group route.

I may just be getting old and cynical, but as somebody who can recall Scotland at the 1974 World Cup and numerous tournaments when our frustration centred around our inability to reach the latter stages rather than 22 years of failure to even qualify I just feel a bit underwhelmed by the way we've reached this one.

[Bristolhibby]

It’s also worth nothing that the route to the World Cup playoffs is different to the Euro playoffs. There are 10 playoff spots for teams finishing second in the WC qualifying groups and only 2 available through the Nations League, both of which go to Nations League group winners.

Yes, it’s not as straight running for the WC, there is a snag though and IMHO we need to be winning both games. Two best Nations League teams that have not qualified or reached the playoffs through WC qualifiers get into the playoffs via Nations League. Securing as many points on Sunday and next week is critical.

“The Nations League will be partially linked with European qualification for the FIFA World Cup, although to a lesser degree than is done for the UEFA European Championship qualifying play-offs. The first round of the World Cup qualification consists of ten groups. The winner of each group will directly qualify for the World Cup. Then, the second round (which follows a play-off format) will be contested by the ten group runners-up, plus the best two Nations League group winners, based on the Nations League overall ranking, that finished outside the top two of their qualifying group. The play-offs will be split into three play-off paths, played in two single-match knockout rounds (semi-finals and finals, with the home teams to be drawn), from which an additional three teams will also qualify.”

J

[Green Man]

However if we get promoted into tier 1, then majority of the rest of the teams will qualify directly into playoffs or automatically, so there is a big chance of being one of the two remaining.

Going by the UEFA website though, it’s the two best ranked Nations League group winners, who haven’t already qualified or reached the playoffs, who get the remaining playoff slots. So unless we won our Nations League group, we wouldn’t get one.

[Bristolhibby]

Yes I accept it sounds cheerless in the wake of the euphoria around qualification, but the fact remains that the only teams we beat to get to the play-off were Israel and Albania. There also seemed to be much over-egging of what a dynamite side Serbia are when in fact they're only ranked 30th in the world - hardly a monumental scalp when you consider Scotland are 45th.

As others have pointed out on another thread, this just doesn't stack up as the success it's being billed as. We failed dismally (as usual) in the qualication group proper and were thrown a lifeline by the Nations League which seems to me to be set up in order to allow teams who weren't otherwise good enough the chance to play at a major tournament. I don't really understand its rationale.

Granted Scotland appear to be developing into a different beast under Clarke, but Covid has given him a lot of unexpected additional time to develop the team and I'll be a lot more impressed when we qualify for a tournament via the group route.

I may just be getting old and cynical, but as somebody who can recall Scotland at the 1974 World Cup and numerous tournaments when our frustration centred around our inability to reach the latter stages rather than 22 years of failure to even qualify I just feel a bit underwhelmed by the way we've reached this one.

After 22 years I don’t care. Everyone (eventually) figured out and knew how important the Nations League was (and we nearly messed that up (Israel away and the nervy win at home).

TBH after getting humped 3-0 by Kazakstan back in 2019 I’d have taken another civil war to qualify (see Denmark in 1992).

J

[hibbysam]

Going by the UEFA website though, it’s the two best ranked Nations League group winners, who haven’t already qualified or reached the playoffs, who get the remaining playoff slots. So unless we won our Nations League group, we wouldn’t get one.

I think that’s a typo, it’s been reported everywhere that it’s the two highest ranked sides not already qualified.

[Gordy M]

Yes I accept it sounds cheerless in the wake of the euphoria around qualification, but the fact remains that the only teams we beat to get to the play-off were Israel and Albania. There also seemed to be much over-egging of what a dynamite side Serbia are when in fact they're only ranked 30th in the world - hardly a monumental scalp when you consider Scotland are 45th.

As others have pointed out on another thread, this just doesn't stack up as the success it's being billed as. We failed dismally (as usual) in the qualication group proper and were thrown a lifeline by the Nations League which seems to me to be set up in order to allow teams who weren't otherwise good enough the chance to play at a major tournament. I don't really understand its rationale.

Granted Scotland appear to be developing into a different beast under Clarke, but Covid has given him a lot of unexpected additional time to develop the team and I'll be a lot more impressed when we qualify for a tournament via the group route.

I may just be getting old and cynical, but as somebody who can recall Scotland at the 1974 World Cup and numerous tournaments when our frustration centred around our inability to reach the latter stages rather than 22 years of failure to even qualify I just feel a bit underwhelmed by the way we've reached this one.
See since you referenced 1974, how many games did Scotland play and win to qualify for that World Cup?

[Bristolhibby]

Given they seemed to still be in Belgrade this lunchtime assuming they will fly to a Slovakia from Serbia. Probably also then fly to Israel from there for Wednesday.

Good tournament practice.

J

[Bristolhibby]

I think that’s a typo, it’s been reported everywhere that it’s the two highest ranked sides not already qualified.

So winning the group is irrelevant. In that case, is it not better to stay in the “weaker” pot for the next Euros so as to keep our parachute?

J

[hibbysam]

Yes I accept it sounds cheerless in the wake of the euphoria around qualification, but the fact remains that the only teams we beat to get to the play-off were Israel and Albania. There also seemed to be much over-egging of what a dynamite side Serbia are when in fact they're only ranked 30th in the world - hardly a monumental scalp when you consider Scotland are 45th.

As others have pointed out on another thread, this just doesn't stack up as the success it's being billed as. We failed dismally (as usual) in the qualication group proper and were thrown a lifeline by the Nations League which seems to me to be set up in order to allow teams who weren't otherwise good enough the chance to play at a major tournament. I don't really understand its rationale.

Granted Scotland appear to be developing into a different beast under Clarke, but Covid has given him a lot of unexpected additional time to develop the team and I'll be a lot more impressed when we qualify for a tournament via the group route.

I may just be getting old and cynical, but as somebody who can recall Scotland at the 1974 World Cup and numerous tournaments when our frustration centred around our inability to reach the latter stages rather than 22 years of failure to even qualify I just feel a bit underwhelmed by the way we've reached this one.

You keep saying this, but again, we would have got into the playoffs based on our finishing position in qualification. The playoffs have always been there, and the teams that were in the playoffs were essentially those that would’ve been anyway based on the qualifiers, plus a few additions, and none of those additions qualified, so the cream rose to the top anyway.

Like I said previously, do you think Portugal felt underwhelmed at winning the tournament after qualifying in third place from a group of 4, just because previously the top two qualified? Change happens, thats life. I’ll not care one bit if we qualify for the World Cup through the same (but harder) route.

[Sir David Gray]

Yes I accept it sounds cheerless in the wake of the euphoria around qualification, but the fact remains that the only teams we beat to get to the play-off were Israel and Albania. There also seemed to be much over-egging of what a dynamite side Serbia are when in fact they're only ranked 30th in the world - hardly a monumental scalp when you consider Scotland are 45th.

As others have pointed out on another thread, this just doesn't stack up as the success it's being billed as. We failed dismally (as usual) in the qualication group proper and were thrown a lifeline by the Nations League which seems to me to be set up in order to allow teams who weren't otherwise good enough the chance to play at a major tournament. I don't really understand its rationale.

Granted Scotland appear to be developing into a different beast under Clarke, but Covid has given him a lot of unexpected additional time to develop the team and I'll be a lot more impressed when we qualify for a tournament via the group route.

I may just be getting old and cynical, but as somebody who can recall Scotland at the 1974 World Cup and numerous tournaments when our frustration centred around our inability to reach the latter stages rather than 22 years of failure to even qualify I just feel a bit underwhelmed by the way we've reached this one.

You make some valid points and I agree that qualifying through the normal group route will be the real achievement for me but I do think qualifying by any means is huge for the country and will hopefully see us go from strength to strength. Hopefully we go there next year and give a good account of ourselves and qualifying becomes the norm like it was 40-50 years ago.

After 22 years (23 by the team we kick off the tournament) it was just important to actually get there.

[B.H.F.C]

Yes I accept it sounds cheerless in the wake of the euphoria around qualification, but the fact remains that the only teams we beat to get to the play-off were Israel and Albania. There also seemed to be much over-egging of what a dynamite side Serbia are when in fact they're only ranked 30th in the world - hardly a monumental scalp when you consider Scotland are 45th.

As others have pointed out on another thread, this just doesn't stack up as the success it's being billed as. We failed dismally (as usual) in the qualication group proper and were thrown a lifeline by the Nations League which seems to me to be set up in order to allow teams who weren't otherwise good enough the chance to play at a major tournament. I don't really understand its rationale.

Granted Scotland appear to be developing into a different beast under Clarke, but Covid has given him a lot of unexpected additional time to develop the team and I'll be a lot more impressed when we qualify for a tournament via the group route.

I may just be getting old and cynical, but as somebody who can recall Scotland at the 1974 World Cup and numerous tournaments when our frustration centred around our inability to reach the latter stages rather than 22 years of failure to even qualify I just feel a bit underwhelmed by the way we've reached this one.

What additional time did COVID give him? He played the same number of games and had the players for the same amount of time? Did COVID help him when he had Tierney, Christie and Armstrong were ruled out of the last three games?

You seem desperate to be miserable about something positive.

[hibbysam]

So winning the group is irrelevant. In that case, is it not better to stay in the “weaker” pot for the next Euros so as to keep our parachute?

J

No, it’s not irrelevant. If we stay in pot 2/B(whatever it is called), the best we could finish would be 17th, if we get into pot 1/A then the worst we can finish is 16th. This would ultimately give us the best chance of getting into the World Cup playoffs.

Even if we then got relegated, we’d still be in the second pot for the euros campaign, but be ranked/seeded higher for the actual qualifying campaign.

[Bristolhibby]

No, it’s not irrelevant. If we stay in pot 2/B(whatever it is called), the best we could finish would be 17th, if we get into pot 1/A then the worst we can finish is 16th. This would ultimately give us the best chance of getting into the World Cup playoffs.

Even if we then got relegated, we’d still be in the second pot for the euros campaign, but be ranked/seeded higher for the actual qualifying campaign.

Oh, in that case, full steam ahead, 6 points please.

J

[Green Man]

Away from Scotland, Luxembourg are sitting top of their group in League C, level on points with Montenegro. That’s very impressive for a nation which for so long was right down at the bottom of the rankings.

[hibbysam]

Away from Scotland, Luxembourg are sitting top of their group in League C, level on points with Montenegro. That’s very impressive for a nation which for so long was right down at the bottom of the rankings.

Faroes too, although in league D, well ahead of Latvia and Malta.

[SHODAN]

I think that’s a typo, it’s been reported everywhere that it’s the two highest ranked sides not already qualified.

No, it's definitely group winners only. If you finish second in one of the league A groups you get **** all.

https://i.imgur.com/4mICWEf.png

[hibbysam]

No, it's definitely group winners only. If you finish second in one of the league A groups you get **** all.

https://i.imgur.com/4mICWEf.png

So going by that being drawn in A1 gives you a better ranking than A4, even though that’s luck of the draw? Doubt that. That’s been taken from the UEFA website, that may well be right, however I’ll await better judgement on that. I highly doubt league D is getting a route into the World Cup playoffs. It’s also far more beneficial when it comes to the next Euro’s that we get into League A.

[The 90+2]

So going by that being drawn in A1 gives you a better ranking than A4, even though that’s luck of the draw? Doubt that. That’s been taken from the UEFA website, that may well be right, however I’ll await better judgement on that. I highly doubt league D is getting a route into the World Cup playoffs. It’s also far more beneficial when it comes to the next Euro’s that we get into League A.


Sounds like paper talk to me.

[SHODAN]

So going by that being drawn in A1 gives you a better ranking than A4, even though that’s luck of the draw? Doubt that. That’s been taken from the UEFA website, that may well be right, however I’ll await better judgement on that. I highly doubt league D is getting a route into the World Cup playoffs. It’s also far more beneficial when it comes to the next Euro’s that we get into League A.

It won't work like that - it'll be whoever has the most points from each of the group winners i.e. if A2 have 10 points and A1 have 9, A2 will be given priority.

Chances are A1-4 will all qualify directly, as will some of the B winners. It's likely that whoever doesn't directly qualify out of B and maybe 1 from C will get the extra playoff places.

[SJNB Hibby]

So who do we want relegated from the Pool A groups.
I feel Scotland are a "I'll have your 2nd cheapest wine" We'' slip up agaisnt the lowest seesd, but we certainly dont want relish Germany Spain France etc.
As I write, Ukraine are beating Germany -- that pretty much condemns Switzerland to relegation, but Ukraine not a bad option. Let's face it, we'll be hoping to finish a strong 3rd in our group.
Group 3 relegated team likely to be Sweden, unless they beat Croatia today
Group 1---complete toss-up, but would certainly not fear Bosnia or Poland, so happy to see Holland relegated
Group 2---Iceland are done

The other teams coming up with us:devil:?? Likely Austria/Norway, Russia/Hungary, and Wales/Finland---nothing to be quaking about there. Lets get those 2 points

[SJNB Hibby]

So who do we want relegated from the Pool A groups.
I feel Scotland are a "I'll have your 2nd cheapest wine" We'' slip up agaisnt the lowest seesd, but we certainly dont want relish Germany Spain France etc.
As I write, Ukraine are beating Germany -- that pretty much condemns Switzerland to relegation, but Ukraine not a bad option. Let's face it, we'll be hoping to finish a strong 3rd in our group.
Group 3 relegated team likely to be Sweden, unless they beat Croatia today
Group 1---complete toss-up, but would certainly not fear Bosnia or Poland, so happy to see Holland relegated
Group 2---Iceland are done

The other teams coming up with us:devil:?? Likely Austria/Norway, Russia/Hungary, and Wales/Finland---nothing to be quaking about there. Lets get those 2 points

Germany turned that around in a hurry

[hibbysam]

It won't work like that - it'll be whoever has the most points from each of the group winners i.e. if A2 have 10 points and A1 have 9, A2 will be given priority.

Chances are A1-4 will all qualify directly, as will some of the B winners. It's likely that whoever doesn't directly qualify out of B and maybe 1 from C will get the extra playoff places.

Want to apologise, it is the league winners, however this is the nations league that it is taken from, the next one isn’t until 2022. Therefore we would be one of the group B winners, and providing majority of those above us reach World Cup automatically or the playoffs through the traditional method, then we would be in the playoffs as well.

Forgot next year is World Cup qualifying year so no nations league until 2022.

[Green Man]

Want to apologise, it is the league winners, however this is the nations league that it is taken from, the next one isn’t until 2022. Therefore we would be one of the group B winners, and providing majority of those above us reach World Cup automatically or the playoffs through the traditional method, then we would be in the playoffs as well.

Forgot next year is World Cup qualifying year so no nations league until 2022.

That’s a point that I’d completely missed - for some reason I was thinking there was another Nations League campaign between now and the World Cup. This means that winning our current group would give us a pretty decent safety net for the playoffs. Although, given the squad we have now, I’m optimistic about our chances of finishing second in whichever group we end up in.

[hibbysam]

That’s a point that I’d completely missed - for some reason I was thinking there was another Nations League campaign between now and the World Cup. This means that winning our current group would give us a pretty decent safety net for the playoffs. Although, given the squad we have now, I’m optimistic about our chances of finishing second in whichever group we end up in.

So had I, no idea why I hadn’t thought of it before. There’s a few decent pot 2 sides, but likewise some that we should definitely be targeting.

[JimboHibs]

Gordon
Tierney
Cooper
McKenna
Considine
Palmer
McLean
Armstrong
Christie
McGinn
McBurnie

[davhibby]

So winning the group is irrelevant. In that case, is it not better to stay in the “weaker” pot for the next Euros so as to keep our parachute?

J

No as the next Nations League is for the euro 2024 playoffs and being in League A we’d be pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot even if we lost every game in our group

[HibeeBigFly]

No as the next Nations League is for the euro 2024 playoffs and being in League A we’d be pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot even if we lost every game in our group

That’s what Iceland did, they lost the playoff though. Every team bar them from Group A qualified for the euro’s.