The Dreaded Coeficient Thread

[Since90+2]

Would folk have previously said Leicester were more or less likely to win the English Premier League than Hibs the Scottish before they won it?

You could argue that was more unlikely given there are 4 or 5 enormous football clubs in England.

[Gloucester Hibs]

Would folk have previously said Leicester were more or less likely to win the English Premier League than Hibs the Scottish before they won it?

You could argue that was more unlikely given there are 4 or 5 enormous football clubs in England.

True but I think the TV money in England is a bit of a leveller. Would reckon the wage differential between Leicester and the 'Big 6' teams the season they won it would not be as big as Hibs compared to the Old Firm this season. Could be wrong. Then you have guys like Vardy knocking back moves to Arsenal.

[Since90+2]

True but I think the TV money in England is a bit of a leveller. Would reckon the wage differential between Leicester and the 'Big 6' teams the season they won it would not be as big as Hibs compared to the Old Firm this season. Could be wrong. Then you have guys like Vardy knocking back moves to Arsenal.

I think the percentage of wage budget will be closer in England but it's all relative as teams like Manchester City and Chelsea are operating on a completely different level to Leicester and signing literally some of the best players in the world.

You then have to take into consideration that in Scotland you only need 2 teams to have a weak season to be in with a shout whereas in England it's 4 or 5.

If someone had asked me prior to Leicester winning I'd have probably said Hibs would be more likely to win the Scottish League than Leicester winning the Premier League.

[danhibees1875]

True but I think the TV money in England is a bit of a leveller. Would reckon the wage differential between Leicester and the 'Big 6' teams the season they won it would not be as big as Hibs compared to the Old Firm this season. Could be wrong. Then you have guys like Vardy knocking back moves to Arsenal.

I've found a table which suggests the 2 Manchester clubs, Chelsea and Arsenal all paid over 4 times as much in wages as Leicester the season they won the league (c.£200M v £48M). Leicester also had to compete with several other teams who paid a fair chunk more than them - Liverpool, spurs, Everton, West ham...Stoke and Sunderland (£71M!).

A similar article for Scottish clubs suggest that Celtic currently pay about 7.5 times more than Hibs. Rangers are 5.4. However we are then much close to Aberdeen and Hearts.

I think it's very hard to judge which is harder but I'd be tempted to say Hibs - the gap between the top 2 is more significant and the league set up requires playing them 4 times rather than 2. That being said the odds don't reflect that - I don't imagine we are 5000/1 to win the league like Leicester were.

[Speedy]

I've found a table which suggests the 2 Manchester clubs, Chelsea and Arsenal all paid over 4 times as much in wages as Leicester the season they won the league (c.£200M v £48M). Leicester also had to compete with several other teams who paid a fair chunk more than them - Liverpool, spurs, Everton, West ham...Stoke and Sunderland (£71M!).

A similar article for Scottish clubs suggest that Celtic currently pay about 7.5 times more than Hibs. Rangers are 5.4. However we are then much close to Aberdeen and Hearts.

I think it's very hard to judge which is harder but I'd be tempted to say Hibs - the gap between the top 2 is more significant and the league set up requires playing them 4 times rather than 2. That being said the odds don't reflect that - I don't imagine we are 5000/1 to win the league like Leicester were.

Agreed - in BAU terms, I'd say it would be harder for Hibs. Even though Leicester were paying much less than the top clubs in England, they still had a budget to source elite players from all over the world. We're competing against hundreds of clubs for the level of player we're after.


That said, the odds perhaps were right because we only have 2 clubs to beat so only need 2 of them to go bust for us to have a chance, or a more extreme way to look at it is if we suddenly had a mad hibby billionaire investor then they could easily blow the other 2 out the water if they chucked enough money at it.

Since Leicester won it though, I'd say the TV money is even more of a leveler down there.

[SJNB Hibby]

Our league being rated the 8th best in Europe by UEFA and our national team playing in the Euro's has got to be good for attracting good players to play in Scotland and as 3rd best team in that country some might come to Hibs. Less than three years ago our league was ranked 26th which was an embarrassment.

If Rangers win next week, and Ajax lose, Scotland would move, temporarily, ahead of Holland, with both countries having 1 team in the Q-F's

[CMurdoch]

If Rangers win next week, and Ajax lose, Scotland would move, temporarily, ahead of Holland, with both countries having 1 team in the Q-F's

Where have you been? :wink:
Possible as you say but temporary with Ajax all but through to the quarters with an opportunity of getting more points in the next round.
Rangers have to be at their best next week to progress and then need to draw one of the two Spanish teams to have any real chance after that.
My interest is in Scottish football these days but I watched the AS Roma game last night and they would blow Rangers away. Shakhter played well but eventually wilted when Roma turned up the heat.

It will be tough next week for Rangers but they could just about do it after a weeks rest with no games or further injuries.
I thought their players celebrating at the weekend was a mistake psychologically, risking breaking their single minded intensity and concentration and they almost paid for it last night with only McGregors unbelievable save the difference after they started playing for a draw in the last 15 minutes which let the opposition back into the game. Helander had a great game last night as did Aribo who they substituted when they decided to try to shut the game down.

Re the UEFA coefficient, Scotland's natural position is behind Holland and hopefully we can remain in 8th for at least 3 years after coming up from an embarrassing 26th in the same time frame.
Other Scotland factoid, our top league has the 7th highest average attendances in Europe, which was again just behind Holland. Given our population that is wildly impressive.

[MWHIBBIES]

I've found a table which suggests the 2 Manchester clubs, Chelsea and Arsenal all paid over 4 times as much in wages as Leicester the season they won the league (c.£200M v £48M). Leicester also had to compete with several other teams who paid a fair chunk more than them - Liverpool, spurs, Everton, West ham...Stoke and Sunderland (£71M!).

A similar article for Scottish clubs suggest that Celtic currently pay about 7.5 times more than Hibs. Rangers are 5.4. However we are then much close to Aberdeen and Hearts.

I think it's very hard to judge which is harder but I'd be tempted to say Hibs - the gap between the top 2 is more significant and the league set up requires playing them 4 times rather than 2. That being said the odds don't reflect that - I don't imagine we are 5000/1 to win the league like Leicester were.
Leicester was a real once in a lifetime thing. Whole squad fit all season alone was a miracle. Some might even say a bit fishy...

[Dr What If?]

A similar article for Scottish clubs suggest that Celtic currently pay about 7.5 times more than Hibs. Rangers are 5.4. However we are then much close to Aberdeen and Hearts.


Interesting numbers those, thanks for sharing. It poses the question of what that is going to look like in the next few years should Ron achieve his goal of doubling our revenue in the next few years (even accounting for the extra expense of getting that revenue in). Are those numbers based on average player salary or total player salaries? If it is total then we might be closer still....Old Firm have massive squads with lads that are no where near the first team on better wages than those playing every week for other clubs.
Making the huge assumption that in most cases salary equates to quality then the gap between starting 11s might not be as huge as a cold look at the numbers are telling us.

[DH1875]

Look how crap Celtic are this year and yet we are still nowhere near them. We are never winning the league yet alone coming 2nd.

[Pagan Hibernia]

Look how crap Celtic are this year and yet we are still nowhere near them. We are never winning the league yet alone coming 2nd.

Thats the spirit

[blackpoolhibs]

Thats the spirit

He's not wrong though is he?

I have given up thinking we can ever win the league, the odd cup is probably out the question too with the new huns spending big now and celtic matching them.

I'm looking forward these days to a European run, these will be our cup finals now for the foreseeable in my opinion.

[Keith_M]

He's not wrong though is he?

I have given up thinking we can ever win the league, the odd cup is probably out the question too with the new huns spending big now and celtic matching them.

I'm looking forward these days to a European run, these will be our cup finals now for the foreseeable in my opinion.


Sadly he's not.

It's 36 years since a club other than Rangers or Celtc won the league and it's 69 years since Hibs last won it.

The early 80s (with 4 titles outside Glasgow) was basically just a blip in the complete domination that the uglies have over the league.

[Pagan Hibernia]

He's not wrong though is he?

I have given up thinking we can ever win the league, the odd cup is probably out the question too with the new huns spending big now and celtic matching them.

I'm looking forward these days to a European run, these will be our cup finals now for the foreseeable in my opinion.

I know, it’s incredibly doubtful that Hibs (or anyone else outside Glasgow for that matter) will challenge for the title in the next few decades or beyond. But you never know. Never is a very long time, and change can happen and occasionally does.

I think it should always be an aspiration for our club to work towards, however unlikely.

[oneone73]

Sadly he's not.

It's 36 years since a club other than Rangers or Celtc won the league and it's 69 years since Hibs last won it.

The early 80s (with 4 titles outside Glasgow) was basically just a blip in the complete domination that the uglies have over the league.

Another blip in the 60s - Hertz, Dundee, Kilmarnock.

[Hibbyradge]

Look how crap Celtic are this year and yet we are still nowhere near them. We are never winning the league yet alone coming 2nd.

I think there's a chance of second one year if the planets were all unusually, but perfectly, aligned. First is just not going to happen. Not even for hearts. :wink:

[Hibbyradge]

Another blip in the 60s - Hertz, Dundee, Kilmarnock.

When the clubs agreed to stop sharing gate money, the writing was on the wall.

No-one will ever be able to match the uglies financially and the chances of both of them having a terrible season at the same time is miniscule.

Even if that miracle was to happen, there's no guarantee of Hibs being the team to take advantage do the chance of us ever winning the league in it's current format, ever again must be infinitesimal.

[SJNB Hibby]

[QUOTE=CMurdoch;6493094]Where have you been? :wink:
As a "Happy Clapper" this place is depressing after 1 loss, never mind 2!!----but I have actually been working, which included a few days off-shore, with very limited WiFi.
Between you and me, (and the millions watching) I dont get those that put down the whole Coefficient matter----do we criticise Old Firm players helping Scotland reach the finals of competitions? Our chance of getting top 2, never mind the title was lost during our wilderness years, even Aberdeen couldnt do it, and I think one year it was their results against Celtic that doomed them. Our chances of catching Rangers or Celtic arent diminished if one of them wins the Europa League
Euro group stages are our Cup Finals--- I watched the Asteras 2nd leg on a small island off the coast of New Brunswick, and the neighbors must have had to google "Super John McGinn!!!"

Anyway, temporary or not, I'm hoping for a brief period after next Thursday, we are actually ahead of Holland in Club coefficients.

[DH1875]

Is it not teams from the Ukraine that can stop us from getting the champions league place :confused:

[SJNB Hibby]

Is it not teams from the Ukraine that can stop us from getting the champions league place :confused:

I think that's for next season. An extra automatic place in the group stages is awarded if the ecl and or Europe league winners have already qualified via their league position
Liverpool winning might be the biggest issue

[Keith_M]

Another blip in the 60s - Hertz, Dundee, Kilmarnock.


The golden era was obviously the near two decades after the second world war (up to Kilmarnock's win in 1965), when a number of other teams won the league title.

Even during that halcyon era (46-47 to 64-65), Rangers won the league 10 times in 19 seasons.

In fact, between Third Lanark's league win in 1904 and Hibs winning the league in 1948, all but one title went to one or other of the old firm (35 out of 36).


Makes you wonder why we bother...

[Paul1642]

With the way that money works in today’s game long term dominance is pretty near impossible to over turn. The only big league that is remotely competitive is The English prem and that’s only because there are more teams that are loaded.

[Smartie]

I think it’s impossible to challenge consistently but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect that maybe once or twice every 20 years a team could come together capable of punching above it’s weight and getting in about the top 2.

We should also be trying to qualify for Europe more regularly ourselves and progressing more there. That should generate a bit more cash and help us keep up with the big 2. There are clubs who do much better in that arena with less resource than the OF and similar to us. There’s an opportunity to do better there over the next few years imo.

[WhileTheChief..]

I’ve not paid any attention to the new Euro conference thing.

Article here explains why finishing 3rd could be so important if you’re like me and missed it before.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/56166942

[CMurdoch]

It's that time again with Scotland starting the evening little more than a draw ahead of the Ukraine.

Shakhtar kicked off at 6pm tonight and at half time it's 0-0. All Shakhtar but no goals.
3-0 down to Roma from the 1st leg so the tie looks over.
However, they can still win coefficient points tonight for the Ukraine if they win or draw and that would impact on Scotland.
I would settle for a draw which would see Scotland still the thickness of a piece of paper ahead of the Ukraine.

Rangers and Kiev will kick of their matches at 8pm

Update - 1-0 Roma after 48 mins

[SJNB Hibby]

Not much scoring in the early games today, Molde putting up a fight, but no sign of S Donetsk going through, although a win would help Ukraines coefficient---A Roma win would be welcome.

[SJNB Hibby]

It's that time again with Scotland starting the evening little more than a draw ahead of the Ukraine.

Shakhtar kicked off at 6pm tonight and at half time it's 0-0. All Shakhtar but no goals.
3-0 down to Roma from the 1st leg so the tie looks over.
However, they can still win coefficient points tonight for the Ukraine if they win or draw and that would impact on Scotland.
I would settle for a draw which would see Scotland still the thickness of a piece of paper ahead of the Ukraine.

Rangers and Kiev will kick of their matches at 8pm

Update - 1-0 Roma after 48 mins

Villareal goal early on would be nice CM--kill that tie off---that way a Rangers loss keeps us ahead of those pesky Ukrainians

[CMurdoch]

Not much scoring in the early games today, Molde putting up a fight, but no sign of S Donetsk going through, although a win would help Ukraines coefficient---A Roma win would be welcome.

1-1 after an hour

Pedro missed a sitter for Roma between the 2 goals

[CMurdoch]

Villareal goal early on would be nice CM--kill that tie off---that way a Rangers loss keeps us ahead of those pesky Ukrainians

I watched Kiev against Brugge in the last round and they were rotten so can't see them coming back in Spain.

Shakhtar are a much better team than Kiev.
Typically they have come back to life since they scored and Roma have started passing to the opposition.

[SJNB Hibby]

1-1 after an hour

Pedro missed a sitter for Roma between the 2 goals

Does a draw move Ukraine above us?

[CMurdoch]

Does a draw move Ukraine above us?

No, but would be less than a draw ahead.

2-1 Roma :thumbsup:

80 mins and Shakhter should have had a penalty. Idiot defender grabbed the attackers shoulder.

[JohnMcM]

I don’t understand all this stuff. Probably why I hated algebra all those years ago.:greengrin

[SJNB Hibby]

I don’t understand all this stuff. Probably why I hated algebra all those years ago.:greengrin

Its easy--"Yay Scotland...Boo Ukraine"

[SJNB Hibby]

Oooh---Spurs/Jose in trouble

[CMurdoch]

Game over 2-1 Roma

Zero coefficient points for Shakhtar.

If Rangers get a draw tonight Ukraine can't head Scotland unless Dynamo Kiev get through tonight which I can't see happening

[SJNB Hibby]

Game over 2-1 Roma

Zero coefficient points for Shakhtar.

If Rangers get a draw tonight Ukraine can't head Scotland unless Dynamo Kiev get through tonight which I can't see happening

And what the heck---lets go for a 4-0 Young Boys win:na na:

[SJNB Hibby]

Commentator blaming McGregor for that goal---thats a bit harsh

[SJNB Hibby]

Aaach well, Kiev losing

[CMurdoch]

Commentator blaming McGregor for that goal---thats a bit harsh

I have Dutch commentators so don't know what they said.
I thought he should have saved it as well.
He was in the right position but slow in getting down.
Lots of pace on the header but should have stopped it from his starting position.
Past it!

[CMurdoch]

Aaach well, Kiev losing

Looking like no points for Scotland and no points for Ukraine tonight.
That ensures Scotland finish in 11th this season.

One more goal from Slavia and Rangers need 3 which ain't happening.
Slavia holding all the aces at this point.

Morelos more interested in being an idiot tonight rather than getting on with it.

[jgl07]

Side issue/ what’s happening with the 2020 Scottish Cup winners? Are they going to get a Euro place or will there be no reward?

Err No!

The Scottish Cup winners slot would have gone to a team based on League positions.

Since Celtic won the League for 2019-20 and the 2020 Cup it makes no difference.

[Magpie]

Get the huns out.

[CMurdoch]

Over and out

[SJNB Hibby]

Holy crap...even for a Hun that was brutal----whats he complaining about?

[CMurdoch]

Holy crap...even for a Hun that was brutal----whats he complaining about?

Have struggled to make chances 11 v 11.
No chance 10 v 11

Roofe sold the jerseys

[Col2]

Looks like Scotland will still get that automatic CL group place. Shakers have lost and Dynamo K are losing by 2 goals with only 10 mins left.

As I understand it that guarantees it if Dynamo don’t come back.

[jgl07]

With the way that money works in today’s game long term dominance is pretty near impossible to over turn. The only big league that is remotely competitive is The English prem and that’s only because there are more teams that are loaded.
That certainly has been the case for Scotland since Rangers brought in Souness and started throwing money about. It was not the case before that. Otherwise how would Aberdeen, Dundee United, Dundee, Hearts, Kilmarnock, Hibs, etc have been able to win titles from the late 1940s to the mid-1980s?

In England, money only really started to count when the Premier League came in in the early 1990s. The likes of Portsmouth, Wolves, Burnley, Ipswich, Everton, Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa, Leeds United, and Derby County all won post-war titles, as well as the usual suspects (Arsenal, Manchester United, Spurs, Chelsea, Liverpool).

OK money has certainly mattered since then. Leicester did win the title despite that a few years back.

[CMurdoch]

I don’t understand all this stuff. Probably why I hated algebra all those years ago.:greengrin

It's not that complicated.
After the qualifying rounds you get 2 points for a win and 1 point for a draw. Scotland had 4 teams in Europe this season so if a Scottish team win a match the 2 points is divided by 4, so in essence a win is worth half a point and a draw is worth a quarter of a point.

Next season Scotland will have 5 teams in Europe so any points our teams get will be divided by 5 so a win will be worth 0.4 of a point and a draw 0.2 of a point.

Other stuff - Points gained in qualifying matches are only worth half the normal amount and extra points are given for qualifying for the next group stage etc.

[CMurdoch]

All Scottish teams are now out of Europe and Scotland will finish this season in 11th place capping 3 seasons of progress from a lowly 26th.

Scotland will start next season in 9th position a fraction of a point behind Russia after Rangers were unable to get even a draw tonight but we should overhaul them before next season is out. Hopefully Hibs can make a good fist of things and contribute points to the Scottish total

Once Scotland hit 8th position they should hold on to it for a few seasons directly behind Holland and all the big leagues. Suspect that is as good as it can get.

[hibbysam]

All Scottish teams are now out of Europe and Scotland will finish this season in 11th place capping 3 seasons of progress from a lowly 26th.

Scotland will start next season in 9th position a fraction of a point behind Russia after Rangers were unable to get even a draw tonight but we should overhaul them before next season is out. Hopefully Hibs can make a good fist of things and contribute points to the Scottish total

Once Scotland hit 8th position they should hold on to it for a few seasons directly behind Holland and all the big leagues. Suspect that is as good as it can get.

It’s an outstanding achievement. On a side note, is it 90 minutes the coefficient works off? For example Rangers last night, if they had equalised then there was a winner in extra time, does coefficient work from the 90 or 120 minute mark? Guessing 90 but just curious.

We really need all teams to at least win a couple of games and the big two to go fairly deep regularly.

[lucky]

The problem with co efficient is that clubs outside the Old Firm contribute very little to help it. Next season each point won will be divided by 5. So unless Hibs, Aberdeen and Livingston actually win a few games then the likelihood of staying at this level or improving will be reduced.

[Fergus52]

The problem with co efficient is that clubs outside the Old Firm contribute very little to help it. Next season each point won will be divided by 5. So unless Hibs, Aberdeen and Livingston actually win a few games then the likelihood of staying at this level or improving will be reduced.

The Europa Conference league should help with that, more opportunities to pick up points if one or both of us and Aberdeen make the groups.

However that may also help the weaker Austrian, Belgian, Dutch, Ukrainian teams as well.

[Keith_M]

Sorry if it upsets our coefficient lovers, but I'm delighted The Rangers got beat last night.



:na na:

[Fergus52]

Sorry if it upsets our coefficient lovers, but I'm delighted The Rangers got beat last night.



:na na:

Scotland secured 11th place last night anyway so win win on both sides :greengrin

[SJNB Hibby]

The problem with co efficient is that clubs outside the Old Firm contribute very little to help it. Next season each point won will be divided by 5. So unless Hibs, Aberdeen and Livingston actually win a few games then the likelihood of staying at this level or improving will be reduced.

For the next two seasons we have limited targets, 1) Beat the 4.375 we got in 2016-17, and 2)the 4 we got in 2017-18. If we got just 6 points in each season, we'd be potentially 9th place in 2023-24, when things get tougher, although not impossible, trying to replace a 6.75

If Rangers get into the CL Group stages thats 4/5 = 0.8 right there. We have 5 teams in Europe pretty much guaranteed for the next 3 seasons, Us the Dons, and likely the Yams in one of those seasons need to take advantage, and beat middling Greek teams, and not lose out to the likes of the Welsh and Luxemburgers

Anyway thread will likely disappear now---see you all in July

[CMurdoch]

It’s an outstanding achievement. On a side note, is it 90 minutes the coefficient works off? For example Rangers last night, if they had equalised then there was a winner in extra time, does coefficient work from the 90 or 120 minute mark? Guessing 90 but just curious.

We really need all teams to at least win a couple of games and the big two to go fairly deep regularly.

I don't know but would guess that it is the result after 90 mins.

If Hibs are in European competition most seasons from now on and Scotland can hold onto 8th best rated league in Europe it might help us attract better players so long as we can afford to pay them.

Not forgetting we have the 7th best supported top league in Europe which is another positive.
Unfortunately, the pandemic has hurt our clubs more than those of any country because they get most of their income through season tickets and gate receipts but hopefully our clubs can recover from the hit.

[JeMeSouviens]

I don't know but would guess that it is the result after 90 mins

I think result after extra time counts but penalty shoot out has no effect.

[CMurdoch]

I think result after extra time counts but penalty shoot out has no effect.

Thanks, I was discussing it with my son up until Rangers imploded.
Neither of us knew the answer and after Kung Fu Roofe sold the jerseys it didn't seem to matter anymore.

[Keith_M]

Scotland secured 11th place last night anyway so win win on both sides :greengrin


Woohoo!