Finishing 3rd 'points per game'

[H18 SFR]

I had a little look at the points per game needed to finish 3rd in the Premiership since 2010:

2010/11 - 1.65
2011/12 - 1.63
2012-13 - 1.47
2013-14 - 1.78
2014-15 - 1.71
2015-16 - 1.71
2016-17 - 1.76
2017-18 - 1.84
2018-19 - 1.76
2019-20 - 1.53*

So the 10 year average is 1.68 points per match, I'm pretty sure that will be enough to secure 3rd, the equivalent of 21/22 wins.

[Juniper Greens]

I'd be plesently surprised if we get 38 games in this season. Making an early season run of form even more important than ever

[H18 SFR]

I'd be plesently surprised if we get 38 games in this season. Making an early season run of form even more important than ever

Yeah, very good point!

[Diclonius]

Long, long way to go yet.

[danhibees1875]

I can't see when we'll drop below 3 points per game, if anything we'll just keep getting better.

[Just_Jimmy]

3rd? We're currently top. Have some ambition. Longer we stay top the more we'll have to go round the pups to catch other teams players in the pubs. [emoji23]

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

[MWHIBBIES]

Long, long way to go yet.

Aberdeen are in shambles, Motherwell are poor. Lets go and take 3rd place. Enough paranoid jinxing it rubbish. Time to be confident and go and take it.

[04Sauzee]

It's amazing how 3 wins on the Bounce in the opening games makes everyone feel. There will be other teams outside hibs and the Glasgow uglies that will win 3 games in a row. I'm loving being a Hibee right now and if we win on Saturday my excitement levels may be visable 👀

[Steven79]

Aberdeen are in shambles, Motherwell are poor. Lets go and take 3rd place. Enough paranoid jinxing it rubbish. Time to be confident and go and take it.

Yep!

Aim for 3rd and anything more is a bonus...

[jacomo]

I'd be plesently surprised if we get 38 games in this season. Making an early season run of form even more important than ever


Probably time to call it now and award the title to whichever team is currently top.

Sadly, as the Championship hasn’t started yet, there can be no relegation or promotion, but I’m sure we can all agree this would be FAIR.

[The_Exile]

We should be striving to win the league every year, every team should be, otherwise, what's the ****ing point? Leicester showed it can be done, nothing is impossible and if you've got a system that works with the players you've got then we should fear no team in Scotland. I would like to think nobody at the club has ever thought coming 3rd was mission accomplished.

[MWHIBBIES]

We should be striving to win the league every year, every team should be, otherwise, what's the ****ing point? Leicester showed it can be done, nothing is impossible and if you've got a system that works with the players you've got then we should fear no team in Scotland. I would like to think nobody at the club has ever thought coming 3rd was mission accomplished.


The stars aligning for Leicester is not proof Hibs can win the league. 3rd would be very much mission accomplished.

Of course its not impossible for us to win it, same as its not impossible for Hamilton to win it. But realistically, we should be aiming to punch our weight and push the OF as hard as we can.

[The_Exile]

The stars aligning for Leicester is not proof Hibs can win the league. 3rd would be very much mission accomplished.

It's proof that any team can win any league. Weren't they 5000/1 and had beat the drop on the last day of the previous season or something?

[MWHIBBIES]

It's proof that any team can win any league. Weren't they 5000/1 and had beat the drop on the last day of the previous season or something?

Yes, its proof that if the starts align, you get a top manager, everyone underestimates you, you have world class players like Kan/te, Vardy and Mahrez and everyone else massively underperforms, you can win it.

Not a realistic thing to ever expect, though. I'd be very happy with 3rd. That is most definitely our realistic target.

[Gloucester Hibs]

Yes, its proof that if the starts align, you get a top manager, everyone underestimates you, you have world class players like Kan/te, Vardy and Mahrez and everyone else massively underperforms, you can win it.

Not a realistic thing to ever expect, though. I'd be very happy with 3rd. That is most definitely our realistic target.

Also the TV money in the EPL means all clubs are less vulnerable to having their top stars poached by the big boys. It’s a bit of leveller IMO.

Not that it’ll happen but if we are somehow top approaching the end of January I doubt we’d be able to fend off bigot bros bids for our top players.

[RyeSloan]

I had a little look at the points per game needed to finish 3rd in the Premiership since 2010:

2010/11 - 1.65
2011/12 - 1.63
2012-13 - 1.47
2013-14 - 1.78
2014-15 - 1.71
2015-16 - 1.71
2016-17 - 1.76
2017-18 - 1.84
2018-19 - 1.76
2019-20 - 1.53*

So the 10 year average is 1.68 points per match, I'm pretty sure that will be enough to secure 3rd, the equivalent of 21/22 wins.

Roughly 18 points for every 11 games which means we have 8 games to get another 9 points to keep on track [emoji2957]

[SChibs]

Yes, its proof that if the starts align, you get a top manager, everyone underestimates you, you have world class players like Kan/te, Vardy and Mahrez and everyone else massively underperforms, you can win it.

Not a realistic thing to ever expect, though. I'd be very happy with 3rd. That is most definitely our realistic target.

You dont need world class players to win the Scottish Premiership you just need to have a few players in your team at old firm level, a good effective game plan, consistency and load of luck. Not impossible but very very unlikely

[Bristolhibby]

Aberdeen are in shambles, Motherwell are poor. Lets go and take 3rd place. Enough paranoid jinxing it rubbish. Time to be confident and go and take it.

3rd, I’m targeting 1st!

J

[MWHIBBIES]

You dont need world class players to win the Scottish Premiership you just need to have a few players in your team at old firm level, a good effective game plan, consistency and load of luck. Not impossible but very very unlikely

You need more than that. We had that in 2018 and were a good bit off it.

[houstonhibbee]

I had a little look at the points per game needed to finish 3rd in the Premiership since 2010:

2010/11 - 1.65
2011/12 - 1.63
2012-13 - 1.47
2013-14 - 1.78
2014-15 - 1.71
2015-16 - 1.71
2016-17 - 1.76
2017-18 - 1.84
2018-19 - 1.76
2019-20 - 1.53*

So the 10 year average is 1.68 points per match, I'm pretty sure that will be enough to secure 3rd, the equivalent of 21/22 wins.


Statistically how how many points to be top?

[G15 Hibs]

I love wee facts like this - it took Hibs until 30 October last season, 11 games, to get 9 points. So we're ahead of schedule that way.

[H18 SFR]

In the region of 2.3 points per game give or take.

[Kaff]

Target 64pts going on average of 1.68 per game.
That's 18 wins, 10 draws and 10 losses.
Or basically 2 wins, a draw and a loss every 4 games would do.
Very achievable if we avoid losing runs, 3 defeats in a row makes it very difficult. 3 wins on the bounce has made it look much more feasible, we're needing W15 D10 L10 from now!

[Sir David Gray]

Statistically how how many points to be top?

Since we went to 12 teams in 2000/01 the champions have got;

00/01 - 2.55 ppg
01/02 - 2.71 ppg
02/03 - 2.55 ppg
03/04 - 2.57 ppg
04/05 - 2.44 ppg
05/06 - 2.39 ppg
06/07 - 2.21 ppg
07/08 - 2.34 ppg
08/09 - 2.26 ppg
09/10 - 2.28 ppg
10/11 - 2.44 ppg
11/12 - 2.44 ppg
12/13 - 2.07 ppg
13/14 - 2.60 ppg
14/15 - 2.42 ppg
15/16 - 2.26 ppg
16/17 - 2.78 ppg
17/18 - 2.15 ppg
18/19 - 2.28 ppg
19/20 - 2.66 ppg

The average is 2.42 points per game which is around 92 points. So only another 27 wins to go! :greengrin

[hibbyfraelibby]

Personall I'd devalue no score draws further and reward score draws more.

If it's Nil-Nil then penalty shoot out and winner takes the sole point.

If it is a score draw each team gets a point but also penalty shoot out with winner getting a second point.

[MWHIBBIES]

Since we went to 12 teams in 2000/01 the champions have got;

00/01 - 2.55 ppg
01/02 - 2.71 ppg
02/03 - 2.55 ppg
03/04 - 2.57 ppg
04/05 - 2.44 ppg
05/06 - 2.39 ppg
06/07 - 2.21 ppg
07/08 - 2.34 ppg
08/09 - 2.26 ppg
09/10 - 2.28 ppg
10/11 - 2.44 ppg
11/12 - 2.44 ppg
12/13 - 2.07 ppg
13/14 - 2.60 ppg
14/15 - 2.42 ppg
15/16 - 2.26 ppg
16/17 - 2.78 ppg
17/18 - 2.15 ppg
18/19 - 2.28 ppg
19/20 - 2.66 ppg

The average is 2.42 points per game which is around 92 points. So only another 27 wins to go! :greengrin

Isn't that different from the amount actually needed though? You'd only need 1 point more than second place.

[Greenbeard]

I had a little look at the points per game needed to finish 3rd in the Premiership since 2010:

2010/11 - 1.65
2011/12 - 1.63
2012-13 - 1.47
2013-14 - 1.78
2014-15 - 1.71
2015-16 - 1.71
2016-17 - 1.76
2017-18 - 1.84
2018-19 - 1.76
2019-20 - 1.53*

So the 10 year average is 1.68 points per match, I'm pretty sure that will be enough to secure 3rd, the equivalent of 21/22 wins.
7 points from every 4 games (eg W-D-W-L) would average 1.75pts per game. Something like P38 W19 D10 L9. Reasonable target?

[Sir David Gray]

Isn't that different from the amount actually needed though? You'd only need 1 point more than second place.

True.

00/01 - 2.15
01/02 - 2.23
02/03 - 2.55
03/04 - 2.13
04/05 - 2.42
05/06 - 1.94
06/07 - 1.89
07/08 - 2.26
08/09 - 2.15
09/10 - 2.13
10/11 - 2.42
11/12 - 1.63 (Motherwell finished 3rd but were put into 2nd due to Rangers being liquidated)
12/13 - 1.65
13/14 - 1.84
14/15 - 1.97
15/16 - 1.86
16/17 - 2
17/18 - 1.92
18/19 - 2.05
19/20 - 2.31

That means the average points per game for the team finishing second has been 2.075 which is 78.85 points. So we're looking at around 80 points to be sure! So just another 24 wins required!

[RyeSloan]

Isn't that different from the amount actually needed though? You'd only need 1 point more than second place.

It is but surely you have to beat the top team to be the top team otherwise you are second?

So just beating the second placed team does not make you top as you are actually only making the second place team third and yourself second!

In other words just beating Rangers to second does not make you Celtic [emoji23]

[Sir David Gray]

It is but surely you have to beat the top team to be the top team otherwise you are second?

So just beating the second placed team does not make you top as you are actually only making the second place team third and yourself second!

In other words just beating Rangers to second does not make you Celtic [emoji23]

So I was half right then. :greengrin

Let's compromise and say we'll need between 80-90 points to finish top!

[RyeSloan]

So I was half right then. :greengrin

Let's compromise and say we'll need between 80-90 points to finish top!

I’ll happily compromise on that outcome for sure [emoji23] [emoji106]

[SChibs]

You need more than that. We had that in 2018 and were a good bit off it.

We didnt have consistency over the season. We picked up more points than anyone else over the last 15 games did we not?

[MWHIBBIES]

It is but surely you have to beat the top team to be the top team otherwise you are second?

So just beating the second placed team does not make you top as you are actually only making the second place team third and yourself second!

In other words just beating Rangers to second does not make you Celtic [emoji23]

Yeah that is true. It's a funny one. I'll be quite happy if we finish above second though :greengrin

[Sir David Gray]

We didnt have consistency over the season. We picked up more points than anyone else over the last 15 games did we not?

I'd say we were fairly consistent. We were 4th at the halfway point in December. We then only lost 2 games for the rest of the season and we finished the season remaining in 4th.

We only lost 7 games all season which was less than both Aberdeen and Rangers who finished above us.

[Wull]

This is actually an interesting thread

[Greenbeard]

This is actually an interesting thread
Agree but it has gone nearly 4 hours without further comment!
Maybe everything that needs saying has already been said.
In golfing parlance I'd say we are 1 under par after 1 hole and have smacked a long drive straight down the middle on the 2nd, opening up the green for another birdie opportunity.