Next Crisis about to hit Scottish Football

[Global Hibby]

Goldman Sachs have forecasted a -25% GDP in USA for quarter 2 2020. This economic meltdown will be far reaching and will certainly impact us all personally, including our beloved Hibs as well as all others clubs. American owners of clubs will have a bigger problem than non American.

[H18 SFR]

It really doesn’t bother me, I’m actually not surprised at all that the over inflated wages of players is finally bursting.

[Winston Ingram]

It really doesn’t bother me, I’m actually not surprised at all that the over inflated wages of players is finally bursting.

Over inflated wages in the SPFL?

[cabbageandribs1875]

It really doesn’t bother me, I’m actually not surprised at all that the over inflated wages of players is finally bursting.



oh it won't remain burst for too long, it's the non mega stars on non mega money i'l feel sad for

[Michael]

It really doesn’t bother me, I’m actually not surprised at all that the over inflated wages of players is finally bursting.

The wages in Scotland are pretty much proportional to gate receipts. In England that's another story.

[Keith_M]

How will the share prices in the US greatly affect a Scottish team owned by an American?

Sorry for being a bit thick, but I don't quite get the link.


:confused:

[danhibees1875]

I don't think it's worth/possible drawing conclusions at this point to how the economic impacts are going to affect the game.

There's going to be consequences, and it'll hit everything to varying degrees. I think Scottish football isn't in the worst condition really, but who knows how that will play out.

Our wages are mostly in check in that they're in line with club revenues (there's a couple of outliers there), and there isn't reliance on millions being pumped in by external investors.

Teams rely on fans showing up and supporting for the vast majority of their income. There's an argument that our commercial activities aren't good enough (Hibs and Scottish football collectively) and we've undersold TV rights for this to be the case, but in a way I think the fans being the main source of income and theoretically - although it doesn't feel it at times - the most important stakeholder is a good thing. The idea that clubs in England could play with zero fans and still be profitable premiership teams must be a fundamental problem in their game.

We're also a well supported league. Unless it's changed recently the Scottish premiership is the best supported league per capita in Europe.

[Broken Gnome]

I don't think it's worth/possible drawing conclusions at this point to how the economic impacts are going to affect the game.

There's going to be consequences, and it'll hit everything to varying degrees. I think Scottish football isn't in the worst condition really, but who knows how that will play out.

Our wages are mostly in check in that they're in line with club revenues (there's a couple of outliers there), and there isn't reliance on millions being pumped in by external investors.

Teams rely on fans showing up and supporting for the vast majority of their income. There's an argument that our commercial activities aren't good enough (Hibs and Scottish football collectively) and we've undersold TV rights for this to be the case, but in a way I think the fans being the main source of income and theoretically - although it doesn't feel it at times - the most important stakeholder is a good thing. The idea that clubs in England could play with zero fans and still be profitable premiership teams must be a fundamental problem in their game.

We're also a well supported league. Unless it's changed recently the Scottish premiership is the best supported league per capita in Europe.

If there's a global impact on demand across every industry and the econony slumps as seems inevitable, football will suffer. Ours and other teams could see attendances down for years to come - as much as football will remain an outlet for people, money is going to become so tight for some that they won't have a choice as to whether they can buy tickets or not.

[jacomo]

How will the share prices in the US greatly affect a Scottish team owned by an American?

Sorry for being a bit thick, but I don't quite get the link.


:confused:


Goldman Sachs are talking about economic activity, not share prices.

However, thinking about our american owner, where do you think his wealth is kept? If he’s got a significant stock portfolio then that will likely have taken an absolute battering over the few weeks.

[allezsauzee]

The sharp drop in GDP won't just be in the US and the US is better positioned to weather this kind of storm than Europe so I don't agree that it makes American club owners more vulnerable than Non-US. I'd say the clubs that should be more concerned are ones with owners who's wealth is in oil and mining. Especially if they have borrowed heavily. Especially as Saudi Arabia have chosen this moment to engage in an oil price war.

[FilipinoHibs]

Will be deepest recession since second world war. Predictions of 30 million jobs lost worldwide. People hoarding for next crisis. There will be a lot less money to spend on season tickets and Sky. Big drop in players wages coming. Several clubs will go the wall or admin globally.

[FilipinoHibs]

Goldman Sachs are talking about economic activity, not share prices.

However, thinking about our american owner, where do you think his wealth is kept? If he’s got a significant stock portfolio then that will likely have taken an absolute battering over the few weeks.

At his age will have a low holding in stocks and should be in cash and government bonds, the latter have done well. Also, US dollar has done well as safe haven, appreciating over 10% versus pound.

[Yorkshire HFC]

Goldman Sachs have forecasted a -25% GDP in USA for quarter 2 2020. This economic meltdown will be far reaching and will certainly impact us all personally, including our beloved Hibs as well as all others clubs. American owners of clubs will have a bigger problem than non American.

I'm finding all this hard to deal with.

On the one hand, a football club is way down my list of priorities - my main worries are finances and essentials for myself, my family, friends and community. I've got a lot more to worry about than some football players.

On the other hand, I'm already beginning to realise how much benefit sport and entertainment is to all our lives - we need the escape from the hum drum that it provides, together with the social element of meeting people at the game, at the cinema, for a drink or a meal.

And with a football club, like all businesses, yes, the ones at the top will probably survive it very nicely - but there are a team of support staff and ordinary people who will currently be feeling like they have no control of their futures.

[Keith_M]

However, thinking about our american owner, where do you think his wealth is kept? If he’s got a significant stock portfolio then that will likely have taken an absolute battering over the few weeks.


I understand that, but, as a club, we've survived very well without artifical investment over the years and will continue to do so.

The fact that our owner can't inject any extra money into our club is not an issue.

All in my opinion, of course.


Goldman Sachs are talking about economic activity, not share prices.


That makes sense, cheers.


My comment wasn't intended as sarcasm or whatever, I genuinely couldn't see the link.

[jacomo]

At his age will have a low holding in stocks and should be in cash and government bonds, the latter have done well. Also, US dollar has done well as safe haven, appreciating over 10% versus pound.


Maybes aye maybes no, but you are right that he may well be fine.

[jacomo]

I understand that, but, as a club, we've survived very well without external investment over the years and will continue to do so.

The fact that our owner can't inject any extra money into our club is not an issue.

All in my opinion, of course.


Yeah but we’d all rather have an owner with deep pockets.

[FilipinoHibs]

Yeah but we’d all rather have an owner with deep pockets.

We will have funding gaps because of no games and delays in season ticket sales. He will through his company set up to take control of Hibs, be able to provide short term financing secured on ER

[Ozyhibby]

Football is all relative. So long as we are better placed to weather the storm than our rivals then it’s all good. I’m not worried about players salaries.
So long as we can afford better players than Hearts, Aberdeen etc then I don’t care if they are only on minimum wage.
Fixed costs like HTC are a problem if our income drops heavily though but that’s the same for all clubs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Keith_M]

Yeah but we’d all rather have an owner with deep pockets.


I'd like to be married to Kaley Cuoco ...and have access to a unending supply of Viagra (the two facts are not necessarily related ;-) )


We don't all get what we want in life.

:wink:

[Lago]

Of course the longer this goes on there is the possibility that many football fans will not return to the game, they will no longer be employed or earning less than previously or have just got out of the habit of going to football and found other activities to occupy them.

[Onion]

If there's a global impact on demand across every industry and the econony slumps as seems inevitable, football will suffer. Ours and other teams could see attendances down for years to come - as much as football will remain an outlet for people, money is going to become so tight for some that they won't have a choice as to whether they can buy tickets or not.

Football started as a working man's game - a release from the drudgery and hardship of every day life. If unemployment and poverty grow and the economy suffers, football might have to rethink its model and place in society. IMO it will have an even more important role in ordinary people's lives.

[MWHIBBIES]

It really doesn’t bother me, I’m actually not surprised at all that the over inflated wages of players is finally bursting.

This doesn't surprise you? A pandemic shutting down the world isn't surprising?

Footballers aren't on inflated wages, they are on wages that are reletive to the income of their employers. Same as film stars. Big business, big wages.

[Onion]

Of course the longer this goes on there is the possibility that many football fans will not return to the game, they will no longer be employed or earning less than previously or have just got out of the habit of going to football and found other activities to occupy them.

And if that's the case, football will have to rethink its proposition. If Hibs, Hearts, Aberdeen truly see themselves as supporting (and part of) the Community, they'd need to find ways of making the game accessible to all. It could be argued that those who have less, need football the most.

[greenginger]

Goldman Sachs are talking about economic activity, not share prices.

However, thinking about our american owner, where do you think his wealth is kept? If he’s got a significant stock portfolio then that will likely have taken an absolute battering over the few weeks.


Maybe he bought gold or sold oil futures a few months back.

There are always ways of increasing your wealth. :cb Pity I never thought of them :confused:

[Since90+2]

This doesn't surprise you? A pandemic shutting down the world isn't surprising?

Footballers aren't on inflated wages, they are on wages that are reletive to the income of their employers. Same as film stars. Big business, big wages.

Don't agree with your second paragraph at all. Hibs are turning over somewhere in the region of £9 million pound which is not all that large for a company. For a good proportion of those employees to be earning somwhere in the region of £2000 a week that is not relative to most other businesses with that level of revenue.

[jacomo]

Maybe he bought gold or sold oil futures a few months back.

There are always ways of increasing your wealth. :cb Pity I never thought of them :confused:


I wish I had shares in zoom right now...

[jacomo]

Don't agree with your second paragraph at all. Hibs are turning over somewhere in the region of £9 million pound which is not all that large for a company. For a good proportion of those employees to be earning somwhere in the region of £2000 a week that is not relative to most other businesses with that level of revenue.


Overall this is true, but any business that is reliant on its ‘talent’ to make money will spend a high proportion of its revenues on the talent.

[ScottB]

I think the entire planet’s economy will have to a ground to a halt in this quarter, whether an owner is American, Scottish or Chinese isn’t really going to make much difference.

[Lago]

And if that's the case, football will have to rethink its proposition. If Hibs, Hearts, Aberdeen truly see themselves as supporting (and part of) the Community, they'd need to find ways of making the game accessible to all. It could be argued that those who have less, need football the most.
Good point. 👍

[NAE NOOKIE]

After this is over the whole world will be reevaluating what's important and what isn't, especially WHO is important and who isn't. But the funny thing is that after every crisis, two world wars and the great depression for example, the one thing that has bounced back strongly is the entertainment industry and not least of all football.

People see these things as a return to normality and historically have lapped them up when things get better. It's a different world these days with so many more outlets for folks cash when they have it, but I see no reason why the clubs that do survive can't come back stronger as part of a feel good factor.

Call me an optimist, but I would like to think that as long as folk are sure its safe to return when Hibs and every other club take to the field, whenever that is, the crowds at least in the first few weeks will be very healthy indeed. I hope.

[SingaporeHibs]

Goldman Sachs have forecasted a -25% GDP in USA for quarter 2 2020. This economic meltdown will be far reaching and will certainly impact us all personally, including our beloved Hibs as well as all others clubs. American owners of clubs will have a bigger problem than non American.

Come on Global Hibby, why use a GS forecast to put worry in people that Hibs having an American owner is a bigger problem than an owner from anywhere else?
This is a global crisis that will clearly see a global slowdown. Countries globally are closing down in an effort to get on top of the virus. I don’t see why the slowdown will be worse in the US than anywhere else. Provided the US doesn’t stuff up their efforts in comparison to anywhere else but even then in a global environment the difference will be marginal.
A bit like after GFC, free money will only help the rich get richer while everyone else struggles through. It’s not going to be a great time for people generally but my last concern right now is Hibs having a US based owner.

[blackpoolhibs]

Who'd have thought people would struggle with less money coming in?

[chrisski33]

I'm finding all this hard to deal with.

On the one hand, a football club is way down my list of priorities - my main worries are finances and essentials for myself, my family, friends and community. I've got a lot more to worry about than some football players.

On the other hand, I'm already beginning to realise how much benefit sport and entertainment is to all our lives - we need the escape from the hum drum that it provides, together with the social element of meeting people at the game, at the cinema, for a drink or a meal.

And with a football club, like all businesses, yes, the ones at the top will probably survive it very nicely - but there are a team of support staff and ordinary people who will currently be feeling like they have no control of their futures.
I feel that when this virus is over some folk will worry about other stuff other than football clubs tbh. There will be another virus like this again. Folk will be holding back in their finances.

[CentreLine]

I feel that when this virus is over some folk will worry about other stuff other than football clubs tbh. There will be another virus like this again. Folk will be holding back in their finances.

Think you are absolutely right in the second part but I actually think people will be very glad if the distraction offered by football. I think people will return in good numbers. They will find other area to make economies.

[Arch Stanton]

The wages in Scotland are pretty much proportional to gate receipts. In England that's another story.

Presumably SKY and BT will continue funding EPL since they haven't been refunding customers.

[blackpoolhibs]

I feel that when this virus is over some folk will worry about other stuff other than football clubs tbh. There will be another virus like this again. Folk will be holding back in their finances.

:agree: I'd imagine certain schemes that have been implemented over the years like our HSL and the gimps one will see a huge downturn in funds soon.

Football is not the most important thing in our lives anymore, it never really was.

[Global Hibby]

I agree family, friends and loved ones more important than Hibs. However we all do have a passion for Hibs and care deeply. We might have different lenses we look through and we will have different opinions. Decisions are neither right or wrong based on ones analysis...it’s just an opinion. I have an opinion on HSL at the end of this post, which I will try to share how I arrived at that opinion.

Someone asked me why the concern over American Owners more so than others. I have spoken with Ron and I think he is really good guy with a plan that could work for him to make money and for Hibs to prosper as a result. Ron is a very successful business man who has gone through at least two serious financial crashes and came through them. Hibs could have done a lost worse than Ron for sure !

This Tsunami financially on its way to us, is going to be much greater and more impactful than those two before. The crash was on its way before Covid 19.

it’s very difficult to get an handle on businesses and people with structures out of Delaware and I am personally one of those. One doesn’t go to Delaware to hide those things by the way either so don’t be mislead by that statement.

Many American owners of football clubs have a corporate structure behind them for that investment and in many instances it’s joined in with other investments. It’s difficult to find out those structures and why worry some might say. When security of assets is in place it’s not just as simple as looking at say Hibs and saying there is charge from another company but don’t worry we have not borrowed anything. Hibs is an asset owned by that company or individual and could be used as security depending on a number of areas. To be specific the shares that anyone has in any company including Hibs has a value and can be borrowed against. I am not saying Ron is doing this either to be clear and this is not in any way a criticism of Ron and his team and he is vastly experienced.

This Tsunami will have a knock on effect to us all and will affect Hibs and Scottish Football. My last opinion is that HSL should stop giving funds to Hibs in the manner it does today. It should switch to lending Hibs the money as a secured creditor against the assets just in case there is a financial issue in the future. The loan can be dealt with in a number of different ways in the future. For the record I am a member of HSL and supported the funds given to our beloved football club. By lending the money it provides a safety factor for our football club and I am old enough to recall when STF saved us.

This is just my opinion and neither right or wrong. Hope it adds to a good debate whilst we await the return of football.