Irish General Election

[JeMeSouviens]

Shock poll out tonight with Sinn Fein in the lead.

SF 25
Fianna Fail 23
Fine Gael 20

[Smartie]

Who are the political parties in Ireland and what do they stand for?

[Ozyhibby]

Who are the political parties in Ireland and what do they stand for?

FG and FF are both centre right parties and dominated Irish politics for years. FF especially. SF is more left.


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[JeMeSouviens]

Who are the political parties in Ireland and what do they stand for?

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have been the big 2 in Ireland since the formation of the Free State in 1921. They are both splits from the original Sinn Fein (and hence the original IRA).

Fine Gael was the part of Sinn Fein led by Michael Collins (actually Cumann na nGaedheal at the time, the name changed later after a merger with a smaller party) that accepted the treaty with Britain that saw the Irish Free State come into being but also partitioned Ireland and kept it under "dominion" status to the UK, so they still had to swear allegiance to the British king and so on. The rest of Sinn Fein rejected the treaty and refused to sit in the new Dail and the 2 sides fought a bitter civil war for a couple of years.

Sinn Fein then split again and Fianna Fail (the Soldiers of Destiny) led by Eamonn de Valera entered the Dail and controversially took the oath. They subsequently came to power, removed the oath and other things imposed by Britain and rewrote the constitution, effectively paving the way for Ireland to become the RoI we know today.

So, FG and FF have both had long spells in power, are both broad based centre parties which, certainly in their early decades, were defined more by which side they took in 1921 rather than anything else. FG tends to be a bit more fiscally conservative and socially liberal, FF a bit more spendthrift and small c conservative but they're both firmly in the centre ground.

The rump Sinn Fein all but disappeared until the northern troubles and another split that created the Provisional IRA in 1970. The other side, the "Official" IRA/Sinn Fein became the Workers party. The Provisionals gave up abstentionism in Ireland in 1986 (yet another split, that created the "Continuity" IRA) and have had some success in Irish elections since. Now that McGuinness is dead and Adams has retired, they are led by Mary Lou Macdonald who has no IRA history whatever, which is probably a significant reason for the surge we're seeing.

SF is obviously much stronger on Irish unity (although FF & FG are nominally in favour also) and a good bit to the left on everything else.

[Hibby Bairn]

Is this Brexit related? A move towards United Ireland and away from United Kingdom? People p’d off with England/Westminster?

[lapsedhibee]

Is this Brexit related? A move towards United Ireland and away from United Kingdom? People p’d off with England/Westminster?

Unlike in Britain, the press in Ireland covers what actually goes on in the EU - so presumably many Irish can see even more clearly than many Brits that Johnson is full of BS.

[JeMeSouviens]

Is this Brexit related? A move towards United Ireland and away from United Kingdom? People p’d off with England/Westminster?

Indirectly I guess. This election is just in the RoI but the p'd off with Eng/West feeling has grown in the north which has made a United Ireland much more of a live issue in the RoI.

[Smartie]

Indirectly I guess. This election is just in the RoI but the p'd off with Eng/West feeling has grown in the north which has made a United Ireland much more of a live issue in the RoI.

Has it grown to the extent that Unionists would become in favour of a united Ireland?

Surely not.

[JeMeSouviens]

Has it grown to the extent that Unionists would become in favour of a united Ireland?

Surely not.

A minority are at least considering it and aiu the current demographics, nationalist plus non-aligned is now bigger than unionists on their own. I don’t think anyone other than SF either thinks it will or wants it to happen in the next few years.

[Ozyhibby]

Has it grown to the extent that Unionists would become in favour of a united Ireland?

Surely not.

If it’s in their economic interest then there are many soft unionists in Northern Ireland. There are also many soft nationalists who would stick with the status quo if that was in their interest. Not everywhere in Northern Ireland has flags hanging everywhere and painted kerbs.
The demographics have changed now though with nationalist now outnumbering unionists.


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[StevieC]

The demographics have changed now though with nationalist now outnumbering unionists.

I read that and for some reason the Monty Python Meaning of Life clip came into my head .. does that make me a bad person :(


https://youtu.be/ifgHHhw_6g8

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200209/9eb9ea9ff4e2898137554abb34c60629.png

SF win. Very interesting coalition negotiations coming up.


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[RyeSloan]

Is this Brexit related? A move towards United Ireland and away from United Kingdom? People p’d off with England/Westminster?

Don’t think Brexit has been a big factor...from the limited amount I’ve read the election was more based around more domestic matters like the cost of housing, their health service troubles and the high level of homelessness.

[lapsedhibee]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200209/9eb9ea9ff4e2898137554abb34c60629.png

SF win. Very interesting coalition negotiations coming up.


Since they haven't got a proper Queen to do it, who invites the leader of one of the three parties to try to form a government? Or do they just sort it all out among themselves?

[Vault Boy]

Since they haven't got a proper Queen to do it, who invites the leader of one of the three parties to try to form a government? Or do they just sort it all out among themselves?

That'll be their elected head of state.

[Pretty Boy]

That's a pretty stunning result although probably not totally unexpected when you consider the changes withing Sinn Fein in recent years and the general political climate.

Some rise for SF though considering they were still following a policy of abstention in the Republic only 30(ish) years ago and only won their first seat in 1997.

[JeMeSouviens]

SF will still come 3rd because they haven’t stood enough candidates. They were worried they would spread their vote too thin and didn’t predict their own surge.

[JeMeSouviens]

Seems rank hypocrisy for FF and FG to rule out a SF coalition because of the IRA links while having been behind delivering a deal in the north that gave SF a permanent share of power.

[Ozyhibby]

Seems rank hypocrisy for FF and FG to rule out a SF coalition because of the IRA links while having been behind delivering a deal in the north that gave SF a permanent share of power.

If FF and FG go into coalition to keep them out then it could finish those parties long term.
If SF are in coalition then brexit negotiations will become difficult I think.


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[superbam]

Is this Brexit related? A move towards United Ireland and away from United Kingdom? People p’d off with England/Westminster?

Brexit and even the question of Irish unity haven't been major talking points in the campaign - main issues have been housing, health, childcare etc and the poor record of the two dominant centre right parties, who have been effectively in coalition together.

It's unlikely it will happen this time round but hopefully we are only an election or two away from a clear choice between a centre right bloc (FF/FG) and a broad left coalition led by Sinn Fein, and the possibility of a government that does not include either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail for the first time.

[JeMeSouviens]

Background piece from the FT:


Sinn Féin stakes a claim to the New Ireland
Talk of IRA links wearies voters who want to leave the past behind
DAVID MCWILLIAMS
The writer is an economist, author and broadcaster

It’s a political expression every Irish person knows: Tiocfaidh ár lá. In this Twitter age, it has that essential three-word snappiness, up there with “Take back control”, “Drain the swamp” and “Get Brexit done”. But it comes from a darker era. The slogan was coined by IRA hunger-striker Bobby Sands, used by his clenched-fisted colleagues and spray-painted on gable walls in west Belfast. Last year, it was publicly invoked by Mary Lou McDonald, the new, urbane leader of Sinn Féin. This heavily loaded expression is the mantra of Irish Republicanism. It means: “Our day will come”.

It looks like that day might be here.

Sinn Féin, the political wing of the IRA during its terrorist campaign, leads in the polls ahead of Saturday’s Irish election. The country talks about little else. For traditionalists this has been unimaginable, but we live in a New Ireland now. The past is another country.

Sinn Féin is picking up votes in areas it wouldn’t have dared tiptoe a few years ago. The party was at 25 per cent in one survey last week, followed by 23 per cent for Fianna Fáil with Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael party on 20 per cent. Polls overestimate the left: politically engaged younger people respond while the older, Mass-going voters keep their counsel. Even so, Sinn Féin’s breakthrough means it will be at the table in tortuous coalition talks. Horse-trading begins on Monday with no clear path to government. Proportional representation means that in Ireland there’s as much politics after the election as before it.

To outsiders, it seems strange that the fastest growing, best-educated country in the EU, a liberal democracy run by a competent, gay, mixed-race Taoiseach should lurch so suddenly to the ethno-nationalist left. It would be lazy to lump Ireland in with nativist trends elsewhere, so before we explain what is going on, let’s explain what is not.

Despite wanting a united Ireland and calling for a referendum in Northern Ireland on reunification, a vote for Sinn Féin in the Republic is not, as in Catalonia, an endorsement of narrow-gauge nationalism. Sinn Féin supports the Good Friday Agreement. Despite being a nationalist party, this surge in support is not, like the Brexit vote, a vote against the EU. Sinn Féin is committed to the EU as are more than 85 per cent of Irish people. Despite sounding tribal, this vote is not, like Matteo Salvini’s constituency in Italy, a vote against immigration. One in six Irish residents are foreign-born. Sinn Féin embraces multiculturalism.

In the US, nativism is fuelled in part by economic nostalgia. Ireland doesn’t do economic nostalgia. We’ve never had it so good. National income has never been higher, unemployment never lower. Economically, our past was a catastrophe. “Make America Great Again” might fly in the States; “Make Ireland Great Again” doesn’t cut it here.

The Sinn Féin surge is not an old-fashioned Catholic vote against liberalism, as in Poland. It supported both gay marriage and abortion rights. In contrast to the UK, where Brexit was an elderly phenomenon, Sinn Féin is the biggest party for under-30s. The older you are, the less likely you are to vote Sinn Féin.

Sinn Féin offers something else: change, and a protest vote against the establishment for voters who feel they don’t have a stake. The party are outsiders; the established duopoly are the insiders, with one propping up a government led by the other.

Will these voters stay with Sinn Féin? My sense is they will not. Sinn Féin was a working-class party; today, it is picking up support in the critical 30-45 age group, the commuter classes of Leinster and Munster. The big issues there are housing, transport and childcare.

Sinn Féin promises rent freezes and an expansion of public housing. It will tax corporations, particularly multinational companies. It offers a typical, left-of-centre shopping list, financed by borrowing and higher taxes on the rich.

And what about the IRA? In the past days, the connection between the IRA and Sinn Féin in the North has dominated headlines, but most voters in the Republic are weary of the past. One in four are prepared to give Sinn Féin a chance. It would be completely wrong to equate Sinn Féin’s votes with support for the IRA. There was never more than fractional support for the armed struggle in the Republic. Relations with the UK were, until Brexit, as close as they’ve ever been. But Brexit altered the mood. Irish people disliked the way Brexiters disregarded Irish concerns. English nationalism has consequences far beyond Irish support for Scotland in this weekend’s Six Nations rugby match. At the margin, this may help Sinn Féin, but it’s not behind the surge.

Longer term, demography is destiny. The main parties are dying, literally. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, who have dominated politics for 100 years, can claim only around 25 per cent support among the under-40s. Politically, New Ireland is up for grabs and Sinn Féin’s hat is in the ring.

[JeMeSouviens]

So the first pref votes were:

SF 24.5%
FF 22.2%
FG 20.9%

SF have all their candidates either elected or eliminated and have 37 seats. Estimates are that with more candidates they might have won another 7-10. The trad big 2 have seen their seat projections slip back through the day (I guess because they're not getting as many transfers from the smaller parties as expected). It looks like FG will finish on 33 or 34 and FF on 37-39. If it's only 37 FF, then SF will be joint largest party and having topped the poll could even be looking at Mary Lou MacDonald as Taoiseach! Pretty historic stuff.

[Alex Trager]

A minority are at least considering it and aiu the current demographics, nationalist plus non-aligned is now bigger than unionists on their own. I don’t think anyone other than SF either thinks it will or wants it to happen in the next few years.

Be hugely interesting to see what would happen up here should it happen over there.

[Smartie]

I've been having a cracking battle with the gammoniest gammons in gammonland this afternoon who are arguing that this result is Ireland sticking two fingers up at the EU.

One of them posted a link to the Sinn Fein manifesto, which I have just read.

I like it, I'd vote for them.

https://www.sinnfein.ie/files/2020/SF_GE2020_Manifesto.pdf

[MagicSwirlingShip]

One step closer to a united Ireland ?

[lapsedhibee]

One step closer to a united Ireland ?

Johnson can always rip up the GFA to prevent that.

[Dalianwanda]

As Sam mentioned earlier Brexit or even united Ireland hasn’t been high priority when it comes to this GE. Housing/Homelessness/Health & Environment all at the top. Every demographic apart from +65 has voted left. It’s crazy that it’s been so long with two parties batting power back and forward with hardly any difference between what their offering. This is huge & it’s really interesting to see the spin msm are trying to put on the results, they have never been in this position. The establishment is creaking.

SF were my 3rd choice put only because we have a strong Independent & People Before Profit candidate in my constituency (just looking & PBP is out on 12th count)

[Cataplana]

Anybody see the report on the Beeb, about SF members singing "pro IRA" songs? Ironic then that it was one that they allowed on prime time TV themselves. Obviously the newsroom don't watch Alan Partridge.