US drone strike kills one of the most powerful men in Iran

[AugustaHibs]

This doesn’t sound like it’ll end well...

[Bostonhibby]

Agree but sadly it'll do the orange blinps election chances no harm amongst his supporters who probably won't know where Iran is.

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[Cataplana]

There was a report of a demonstration in Iraq recently. The word Iran was repeated at least seven times. I'm just a crazy conspiracy theorist, of course, but I get the impression we are getting wound up for the war to end everything.

[CloudSquall]

Only a few months ago Trump's base were celebrating leaving the Kurds behind because they want the troops home, now they are celebrating a strike that brings them as close to war with Iran as could be outwith anactual declaration of war.

[Ozyhibby]

Only a few months ago Trump's base were celebrating leaving the Kurds behind because they want the troops home, now they are celebrating a strike that brings them as close to war with Iran as could be outwith anactual declaration of war.

Will we be smart enough to stay out of it this time?


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[Vault Boy]

Supreme leader of Iran has promised 'severe revenge.'

[Cataplana]

Supreme leader of Iran has promised 'severe revenge.'

I like the cut of his jib. This isn't any revenge, this is 2000 year old Shi'ite severe revenge .

[CloudSquall]

Will we be smart enough to stay out of it this time?


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I can't imagine it's too far fetched to say a trade deal might be the carrot on the stick needed to get BoJo onboard.

[Smartie]

https://youtu.be/FVRAghyNoVA

[Ozyhibby]

If it kicks off then oil should swiftly go above $100 a barrel. Will make the GERS figures interesting.


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[neil7908]

We really need to stay well away from this one. Sadly, Boris desperately needs a trade deal with the US and won't be willing to stand up to Trump.

If you thought the Iraq war was a mess, this is going to be another level entirely.

[Fuzzywuzzy]

We really need to stay well away from this one. Sadly, Boris desperately needs a trade deal with the US and won't be willing to stand up to Trump.

If you thought the Iraq war was a mess, this is going to be another level entirely.

According to reports trump never bothered his arse telling any allies (including UK) about this and just did it.

Tinfoil hat time but a lot of it comes down to this I think

https://www.mintpressnews.com/petrodollar-warfare-the-common-thread-linking-venezuela-and-iran/255123/

[Ozyhibby]

According to reports trump never bothered his arse telling any allies (including UK) about this and just did it.

Tinfoil hat time but a lot of it comes down to this I think

https://www.mintpressnews.com/petrodollar-warfare-the-common-thread-linking-venezuela-and-iran/255123/

There is a lot of truth in that article but Venezuela was collapsing long before any sanctions were imposed. And Iran is a long term enemy of the states.
Plus I doubt Trump is able to stick to such a long term plan.


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[Mibbes Aye]

There is a lot of truth in that article but Venezuela was collapsing long before any sanctions were imposed. And Iran is a long term enemy of the states.
Plus I doubt Trump is able to stick to such a long term plan.


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The Americans, with the help of the UK, overthrew a democratically-elected prime minister in Iran in 1953 to allow Western oil companies to control production of oil.

So it is perhaps more accurate to say the Americans are a long-term enemy of Iran.

[Ozyhibby]

The Americans, with the help of the UK, overthrew a democratically-elected prime minister in Iran in 1953 to allow Western oil companies to control production of oil.

So it is perhaps more accurate to say the Americans are a long-term enemy of Iran.

Absolutely.
Trying to take on Iran is not in any way comparable to Iraq. They have a much stronger military than Iraq had and are a much more unified country. This will be a massive mistake if it is allowed to escalate. Eventually the American will prevail but the cost will be massive.
Biggest winners will be Russia and China.


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[Hibrandenburg]

The assassination of a foreign General is nothing short of a declaration of war. Any form of retaliation will be seen by many as justified. This is not going to end well.

[weecounty hibby]

Trump "Hey Boris, going to support us in going to war?"
Johnson "No"
Trump "do you want a trade deal or not?"
Johnson "just you tell me where to send the troops"
As predictable as it is depressing

[lapsedhibee]

Trump "Hey Boris, going to support us in going to war?"
Johnson "No"
Trump "do you want a trade deal or not?"
Johnson "just you tell me where to send the troops"
As predictable as it is depressing

Tugendhat's already been on the radio saying how justified the killing was. Still, sunny uplands and that.

[Ozyhibby]

Trump "Hey Boris, going to support us in going to war?"
Johnson "No"
Trump "do you want a trade deal or not?"
Johnson "just you tell me where to send the troops"
As predictable as it is depressing

I’m not so sure. Johnson will be aware of the damage to Tony Blair’s reputation and the level of opposition there will be here. I also don’t think he would be naturally inclined towards a war.


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[weecounty hibby]

I’m not so sure. Johnson will be aware of the damage to Tony Blair’s reputation and the level of opposition there will be here. I also don’t think he would be naturally inclined towards a war.


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You might be right about not being inclined towards war. But he definitely needs to get some kind of trade deal and that will cost big time

[Colr]

Agree but sadly it'll do the orange blinps election chances no harm amongst his supporters who probably won't know where Iran is.

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Not if Americans arrive back in body bags

[Bostonhibby]

Not if Americans arrive back in body bagsAgreed, ironically it's not so long ago Trump abandoned their Kurdish allies as he didn't want any American soldiers in the region, now another 3500 have been sent there.

Will his support base remember or care.

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[CloudSquall]

Agreed, ironically it's not so long ago Trump abandoned their Kurdish allies as he didn't want any American soldiers in the region, now another 3500 have been sent there.

Will his support base remember or care.

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Don't know whether to laugh or cry, absolutely comical.


What worries me the most is there seems to be absolutely no strategy to any of this (apart from what appears to be attempts to force Iran to war), none of his allies were notified of the strike, it's like he woke up and thought "**** it" and went ahead with it.

[Bostonhibby]

Don't know whether to laugh or cry, absolutely comical.


What worries me the most is there seems to be absolutely no strategy to any of this (apart from what appears to be attempts to force Iran to war), none of his allies were notified of the strike, it's like he woke up and thought "**** it" and went ahead with it.That's very likely how it went,which has to be a concern for all but die hard stay at home Republicans.

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[Colr]

Don't know whether to laugh or cry, absolutely comical.


What worries me the most is there seems to be absolutely no strategy to any of this (apart from what appears to be attempts to force Iran to war), none of his allies were notified of the strike, it's like he woke up and thought "**** it" and went ahead with it.

It’s like foreign policy as the mafiosi would run it

[Hibrandenburg]

Don't know whether to laugh or cry, absolutely comical.


What worries me the most is there seems to be absolutely no strategy to any of this (apart from what appears to be attempts to force Iran to war), none of his allies were notified of the strike, it's like he woke up and thought "**** it" and went ahead with it.

It's being reported that the UK was informed prior to the attack.

[Hibrandenburg]

https://youtu.be/IZiqv0Pucn4

[CloudSquall]

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1212913366492016640

Quite a good read on Twitter regarding the power Soleimani had in Iran and the possible consequences of the strike.

[neil7908]

Not if Americans arrive back in body bags

Unfortunately I'm not so sure. Wars always become unpopular but usually it takes a few years. The timing of this is more than suspicious with the Democratic primaries and his impeachment coming up.

Trump has claimed in his statement that he was the world's number one terrorist and it should have been done a long time ago. Well he's been President for 3 years, so what's stopped him?

This is all to bolster his election campaign. Remember, Bush won a second term even after Iraq

[neil7908]

You might be right about not being inclined towards war. But he definitely needs to get some kind of trade deal and that will cost big time

This. Boris has built his whole platform on Brexit. He absolutely has to ensure its not viewed as a failure. They'll be another dodgy dossier to back him up but ultimately he'll fall in line as a US trade deal is a must.

[Smartie]

I could see this firming up support behind Trump from his own supporters but is unpredictable and erratic behaviour regarding the known tinder box that is the Middle East REALLY something that is going to curry favour amongst floating voters within the US?

Is deploying thousands of troops to a far off land to a vague war of the kind that Americans don't have a great history of emerging from without serious casualties REALLY what people in America are likely to vote for?

[stoneyburn hibs]

And the sovereignty of Iraq? This is mental.

[JimBHibees]

:
And the sovereignty of Iraq? This is mental.

Yep hugely volatile actions along with the US embassy in Jerusalem and the pulling out of troops to leave the Kurds to be slaughtered. Way too close to extreme Israeli policy.

[lapsedhibee]

:

Yep hugely volatile actions along with the US embassy in Jerusalem and the pulling out of troops to leave the Kurds to be slaughtered. Way too close to extreme Israeli policy.

This is all the Democrats' fault. If they'd let Trump skewer Biden without hindrance he could have been re-elected without the need for a war.

[JimBHibees]

This is all the Democrats' fault. If they'd let Trump skewer Biden without hindrance he could have been re-elected without the need for a war.

:greengrin

[G B Young]

It's being reported that the UK was informed prior to the attack.


Do you mean NOT informed?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/03/us-failing-to-give-uk-advance-warning-of-attacks-says-senior-mp

[NORTHERNHIBBY]

This is what you do to win an election.

[Hibrandenburg]

Do you mean NOT informed?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/03/us-failing-to-give-uk-advance-warning-of-attacks-says-senior-mp

No, it was being reported on sky news shortly after the attack that the UK foreign office was informed prior to the attack. The British government have still neither confirmed nor denied this. Still no statement from the British Prime Minister from his little Caribbean jaunt.

[Cataplana]

Why was the Israeli PM, one of the people interviewed? You'd think this was all about them.

[Sir David Gray]

Why was the Israeli PM, one of the people interviewed? You'd think this was all about them.

Probably because they're likely to be very close to the top of Iran's hit list, when it comes to avenging this guy's death.

[Smartie]

Why was the Israeli PM, one of the people interviewed? You'd think this was all about them.

This action may have ramifications for many different countries. Israel are certainly one who will be taking an interest. The "Israel angle" is relevant and interesting I would say.

[Fuzzywuzzy]

Timely distraction for netanyahu and his issues. He's been looking to get supporters during his indictment

[Cataplana]

Probably because they're likely to be very close to the top of Iran's hit list, when it comes to avenging this guy's death.

Innocent bystanders as usual. Why are people always picking on them?

The best way to say its nothing to do with you, is say nothing if it's nothing to do with you .

[Hibrandenburg]

Just watching Trump suck up to the Evangelists on the news and the Evangelists lauding Trump for being God's force for good. The lunatics have truly taken over the asylum. Having grown up in a post war society, this feels more and more like a pre war society. With Iran, China and Russia conducting joint military exercises, I can't help but feel the polarisation of potential allies and combatants is already taking place prior to the next big world conflict.

[Hibernia&Alba]

It's worrying stuff, what with Iran vowing revenge. The cynic in me says the timing is very suspicious, with Trump just having been impeached and it being an election year. I know nothing of the guy they killed, he may have been a terrible person, but assassinating the head of the army of an enemy nation, and one as strong as Iran, is a very dangerous game.

[Cataplana]

Just watching Trump suck up to the Evangelists on the news and the Evangelists lauding Trump for being God's force for good. The lunatics have truly taken over the asylum. Having grown up in a post war society, this feels more and more like a pre war society. With Iran, China and Russia conducting joint military exercises, I can't help but feel the polarisation of potential allies and combatants is already taking place prior to the next big world conflict.

The thing to do is tilt the globe to make Iran in the centre, you then see what a key piece of land it is, and why so many have tried (and failed) to control it.

Attack Iran and you are effectively attacking Russia and China.

[lapsedhibee]

No, it was being reported on sky news shortly after the attack that the UK foreign office was informed prior to the attack. The British government have still neither confirmed nor denied this. Still no statement from the British Prime Minister from his little Caribbean jaunt.
Cummings still working out what's the best lie to tell about it.

[Ozyhibby]

I think the silence from the UK government tells you that they both disapprove and were out of the loop on the attack.


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[Hibrandenburg]

I think the silence from the UK government tells you that they both disapprove and were out of the loop on the attack.


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Funny, I was thinking the exact opposite. Time will tell.

[Bostonhibby]

Funny, I was thinking the exact opposite. Time will tell.Raab waiting for someone to tell him what the official position is and Boris waiting on the orange blimp to tell him.

The UK are the nonentities on the world stage where the USA park their planes.

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[lapsedhibee]

Raab waiting for someone to tell him what the official position is and Boris waiting on the orange blimp to tell him.

The UK are the nonentities on the world stage where the USA park their planes.



The genius that is Cummings is flummoxed. If he says UK knew, we are warmongers. If he says we didn't know, we are poodles.

[Bostonhibby]

The genius that is Cummings is flummoxed. If he says UK knew, we are warmongers. If he says we didn't know, we are poodles.Indeed, and in reality we're irrelevant as far as any of the protagonists here are concerned.

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[lapsedhibee]

in reality we're irrelevant as far as any of the protagonists here are concerned.


I expect a three-word slogan will emerge from No 10 eventually to explain why you're completely wrong.

[Bostonhibby]

I expect a three-word slogan will emerge from No 10 eventually to explain why you're completely wrong.Probably get deported back to Scotland [emoji6]

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[Cataplana]

I expect a three-word slogan will emerge from No 10 eventually to explain why you're completely wrong.

Anglo-Persian Oil Company.

Three words?

[Colr]

Indeed, and in reality we're irrelevant as far as any of the protagonists here are concerned.

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The Iranians hate the British. It goes back quite some time.

[Cataplana]

The Iranians hate the British. It goes back quite some time.

It wasn't the case when the Shah and the Sunis were in power. Britain had a very strong influence in Iran. I know a few who have been here since he was deposed, and their animosity is not directed at Britain.

[Ozyhibby]

Funny, I was thinking the exact opposite. Time will tell.

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/mike-pompeo-european-response-to-suleimani-killing?CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true


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[Bostonhibby]

The Iranians hate the British. It goes back quite some time.Agreed, but they are a vastly greater military power generally and player in the middle east in particular than the UK ever will be, we can easily be ignored by any of the protagonists.

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[stoneyburn hibs]

Rocket fired at US embassy in Iraq, all the great work done by the US in Iraq down the Swanny.

[Ozyhibby]

Rocket fired at US embassy in Iraq, all the great work done by the US in Iraq down the Swanny.

The whole thing just seems like a massive strategic mistake. I can’t see any benefit from it.


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[lapsedhibee]

The whole thing just seems like a massive strategic mistake. I can’t see any benefit from it.


https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2020/jan/04/trump-iran-suleimani-president-approval-ratings

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2020/jan/04/trump-iran-suleimani-president-approval-ratings

I don’t think even the normally war hungry American population wants a war in the Middle East again though. This may not go the way he thinks.


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[Hibrandenburg]

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/mike-pompeo-european-response-to-suleimani-killing?CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true


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I'm reading into that that the Americans might have informed their European allies prior to the strike and got a luke warm response in contrast to their middle eastern allies who were informed after the act. :dunno:

[Smartie]

With the various attacks that have taken place on American targets or allies of America in recent months I can understand that the Americans wouldn't just want to sit idly by and do nothing.

This does seem like a pretty rash and severe action to take, although it would be very much in keeping with the temperament of the current president.

I know it's often said that a war is good for a president but I could see the wrong sort of war being massively damaging.

[stoneyburn hibs]

The whole thing just seems like a massive strategic mistake. I can’t see any benefit from it.


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The potential consequences of this are massive, not least the vacuum which will be even greater in that region because of the American actions.
Utter ****wits.

[Pretty Boy]

It seems a lifetime ago that Obama managed to balance the importance of the US alliance with Israel with a cooling of tensions with Iran and a relatively sensible treaty.

I've no idea what Trumps policy is on the middle east. It seems he does nothing for ages then just let's off a huge firework when no one expects it. Ripping up the Obama treaty with Iran wasn't unexpected but the Jerusalem embassy move and now this action are either deliberately provocative or downright idiocy. Possibly both.

[Ozyhibby]

It seems a lifetime ago that Obama managed to balance the importance of the US alliance with Israel with a cooling of tensions with Iran and a relatively sensible treaty.

I've no idea what Trumps policy is on the middle east. It seems he does nothing for ages then just let's off a huge firework when no one expects it. Ripping up the Obama treaty with Iran wasn't unexpected but the Jerusalem embassy move and now this action are either deliberately provocative or downright idiocy. Possibly both.

One thing he does manage to do consistently is always make moves which seem to benefit Russia.
https://forensicnews.net/2020/01/03/trump-deutsche-bank-loans-underwritten-by-russian-state-owned-bank-whistleblower-told-fbi/



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[Pretty Boy]

Just watching Trump suck up to the Evangelists on the news and the Evangelists lauding Trump for being God's force for good. The lunatics have truly taken over the asylum. Having grown up in a post war society, this feels more and more like a pre war society. With Iran, China and Russia conducting joint military exercises, I can't help but feel the polarisation of potential allies and combatants is already taking place prior to the next big world conflict.

It's worth pointing out that Christianity Today, an evangelical magazine founded by Billy Graham, have openly and repeatedly called for Trumps impeachment. They have called him a 'human who is morally lost and confused'.

Sadly there is a tendency to portray all Christians as being the same as those socially and politically Conservative types who use religion to try to legitimise their views and give them a deeper context.

I'm not accusing you of the above BTW.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/05/the-iraq-war-was-a-failurewar-with-iran-would-be-worse/589534/?utm_term=2020-01-03T16%3A29%3A31&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo

A good article given that it was written by David Frum who was part of the Bush White House in the run up to the Iraq war.


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[Betty Boop]

Why was the Israeli PM, one of the people interviewed? You'd think this was all about them.


Of course its all about them.

[Colr]

Of course its all about them.

Israel is one of Iran’s primary targets (possibly the main one).

[Hibrandenburg]

Trump has now completely lost the plot. Says he has a hit list of 52 Iranian targets he'll destroy if Iran retaliates. The number is symbolic in that it represents the amount of hostages taken by Iran years back. The targets apparently include cultural locations, he's talking like a terrorist.

[Bristolhibby]

Trump has now completely lost the plot. Says he has a hit list of 52 Iranian targets he'll destroy if Iran retaliates. The number is symbolic in that it represents the amount of hostages taken by Iran years back. The targets apparently include cultural locations, he's talking like a terrorist.

I did worry when I saw the number thing. Erm, how about attacking targets based on military value. Cultural! WTF?!? Going to bomb a mosque?

J

[Ozyhibby]

Trump has now completely lost the plot. Says he has a hit list of 52 Iranian targets he'll destroy if Iran retaliates. The number is symbolic in that it represents the amount of hostages taken by Iran years back. The targets apparently include cultural locations, he's talking like a terrorist.

Pretty sure that would be war crime?
We are in a cycle now. Iran can’t not hit back and of course when they do America can’t not hit back.


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[G B Young]

No, it was being reported on sky news shortly after the attack that the UK foreign office was informed prior to the attack. The British government have still neither confirmed nor denied this. Still no statement from the British Prime Minister from his little Caribbean jaunt.

That doesn't seem to be correct re Sky (unless they were initially misinformed):

https://news.sky.com/story/prime-minister-boris-johnson-not-warned-about-us-strike-that-killed-iranian-general-11900599

Seems likely enough to me that Trump would just plough ahead with something ike this regardless of whether he'd informed anyone else.

[Cataplana]

Pretty sure that would be war crime?
We are in a cycle now. Iran can’t not hit back and of course when they do America can’t not hit back.


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Could Iran not go to the United Nations?

[Hibrandenburg]

That doesn't seem to be correct re Sky (unless they were initially misinformed):

https://news.sky.com/story/prime-minister-boris-johnson-not-warned-about-us-strike-that-killed-iranian-general-11900599

Seems likely enough to me that Trump would just plough ahead with something ike this regardless of whether he'd informed anyone else.

I only posted what was being reported by Sky News at the time. Like I said earlier though, the truth will come out.

[lord bunberry]

The British army would struggle to muster the equipment required to go to war. The navy is completely depleted and the airforce isn’t much better.

[Colr]

The British army would struggle to muster the equipment required to go to war. The navy is completely depleted and the airforce isn’t much better.

If we are standing on our own two feet in the world and forming our own global relationships, it would be counterproductive to position ourselves as a lapdog for the USA.

[Cataplana]

If we are standing on our own two feet in the world and forming our own global relationships, it would be counterproductive to position ourselves as a lapdog for the USA.

Have we not just voted in a government to do just that? Nobody can say they are going against the will of the people.

[Radium]

Wow,

https://twitter.com/janearraf/status/1213823941321592834?s=21


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[RyeSloan]

Wow,

https://twitter.com/janearraf/status/1213823941321592834?s=21


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I think it’s pretty safe to say one thing Soleimani wasn’t doing was working hard to defuse tensions in the Middle East!

[Ozyhibby]

I think it’s pretty safe to say one thing Soleimani wasn’t doing was working hard to defuse tensions in the Middle East!

Of that I have no doubt but if you invite someone to talks and then kill them then it makes further attempts at talks a bit tricky.


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[Weegreenman]

America won’t get dragged into a boots on the ground war in my opinion.

Precision targeting is more likely.
We’ll all be the ones to suffer with a world wide terror campaign being the Iranians best way of revenge.

As we all know, they’ll eventually have to come to some compromise, how long that takes is anyone’s guess.

[Radium]

I think it’s pretty safe to say one thing Soleimani wasn’t doing was working hard to defuse tensions in the Middle East!

Not seen anything that suggests any real resolution between Sunni Saudi Arabia/ ISIS & Shia Iraq/ Iran so can see your point.






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[Cataplana]

"In the chaotic days leading to the death of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran’s most powerful commander, top American military officials put the option of killing him — which they viewed as the most extreme response to recent Iranian-led violence in Iraq — on the menu they presented to President Trump.They didn’t think he would take it. In the wars waged since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Pentagon officials have often offered improbable options to presidents to make other possibilities appear more palatable."

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/as-tensions-with-iran-escalated-trump-opted-for-most-extreme-measure/ar-BBYDeVC?ocid=spartanntp

Avoid motorcades, Donald.

[degenerated]

I think the silence from the UK government tells you that they both disapprove and were out of the loop on the attack.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkWhen the statement comes from the British government it will probably be a statement from the DWP to say they've found Soleimani fit for work. [emoji16]

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[Bristolhibby]

I’m not so sure. Johnson will be aware of the damage to Tony Blair’s reputation and the level of opposition there will be here. I also don’t think he would be naturally inclined towards a war.


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If there’s one thing Johnson is good at, it’s looking after Johnson. If that means lying low and not doing a Blair then he’ll do that.

J

[Betty Boop]

The Iraqi Parliament vote to end the presence of foreign troops in the country.

[Ozyhibby]

The Iraqi Parliament vote to end the presence of foreign troops in the country.

It’s not like the Americans were invited in the first place so I’m certain they will ignore this.


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[Future17]

The Iraqi Parliament vote to end the presence of foreign troops in the country.

Non-binding vote. Unlikely they would have voted that way if it was binding. Essentially done as a token gesture to their Iranian allies and a token warning to their US ones.

[NORTHERNHIBBY]

The TV pictures of the crowds who have turned out to see his coffin go past look like a nation has been mobilised.

[Ozyhibby]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200106/d1d96d903d3d6f32d0e4504239a19089.jpg


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[Cataplana]

The Iraqi Parliament vote to end the presence of foreign troops in the country.

Including Iranian ones?

[Betty Boop]

Including Iranian ones?

I doubt that as they are allies and Iran is Iraq's biggest trading partner.

[Cataplana]

I doubt that as they are allies and Iran is Iraq's biggest trading partner.

If they did it would be like a mum banging heads together, and screaming "I've had enough of the bloody lot of you."

[Ozyhibby]

Not sure there are many Iranian troops on Iraq? I thought it was the case that Iran just funds a lot of the Shia militia but it’s mostly Iraqi’s.


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[Ozyhibby]

Pentagon chief of staff has just resigned. Probably a wise choice.


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[Betty Boop]

If they did it would be like a mum banging heads together, and screaming "I've had enough of the bloody lot of you."

There are still British troops tho operating from US bases.

[Mibbes Aye]

Not sure there are many Iranian troops on Iraq? I thought it was the case that Iran just funds a lot of the Shia militia but it’s mostly Iraqi’s.


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My sense is that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards provide a huge amount of training and skilling -up to Syrian, Lebanese, Iraqi and Yemeni Shi’a forces but will very reluctantly get their hands dirty, which is quite understandable.

[Ozyhibby]

My sense is that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards provide a huge amount of training and skilling -up to Syrian, Lebanese, Iraqi and Yemeni Shi’a forces but will very reluctantly get their hands dirty, which is quite understandable.

Yip, that’s what I thought.

I see the Americans have already said they are withdrawing their troops from Iraq so it’s already a big win for Iran (and Russia).
Good chance Iraq splits up soon as the Kurds go their own way with the rest of Iraq falling under increasing Iranian control.


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[Fuzzywuzzy]

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/10/business/iran-new-oil-field-intl/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0abqHPODTmeSEj0_hECtFByga7BG 6In8k_pUw2lXTnfQI57jWVTR9-xXc

[Ozyhibby]

Yip, that’s what I thought.

I see the Americans have already said they are withdrawing their troops from Iraq so it’s already a big win for Iran (and Russia).
Good chance Iraq splits up soon as the Kurds go their own way with the rest of Iraq falling under increasing Iranian control.


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https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200106/6fe8473473094d25a7921cdedb6b8632.jpg
Cancel that, turns out their not leaving. Not sure glaring incompetence is a good look though.[emoji23]


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[Bristolhibby]

Yip, that’s what I thought.

I see the Americans have already said they are withdrawing their troops from Iraq so it’s already a big win for Iran (and Russia).
Good chance Iraq splits up soon as the Kurds go their own way with the rest of Iraq falling under increasing Iranian control.


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Jeremy Bowen (BBC Middle East Editor) is in Baghdad and there are a massive amount of helicopters buzzing around the US Base. Combined with a leaked memo regarding pulling out.

J

[Future17]

Jeremy Bowen (BBC Middle East Editor) is in Baghdad and there are a massive amount of helicopters buzzing around the US Base. Combined with a leaked memo regarding pulling out.

J

If you're considering pulling out, I'd imagine the last thing you'd want is any leaks.

[Cataplana]

Jeremy Bowen (BBC Middle East Editor) is in Baghdad and there are a massive amount of helicopters buzzing around the US Base. Combined with a leaked memo regarding pulling out.

J

A remake of the fall of Saigon?

[Wembley67]

I'm still amazed that some fanatic/level headed person hasn't popped a cap in Trump yet.

[CloudSquall]

Reports of rockets being fired at US base in Iraq are emerging, and pro-Iranian militia in Iraq has said "revenge has begun"


https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1214684495472779264


What an absolute cluster F....

Edit: Nine rockets supposedly hit a base that hosts US forces in Iraq,

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1214686186389696512

[CloudSquall]

CNN confirms 10 missilies hit Al Asad airbase in Western Iraq, rumours of other targets being hit but no confirmation yet.

[Sylar]

According to Iranian State TV, if the US respond to the latest attacks, Hezbollah will attack Israel.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1214713938165805056

There's also a threat that they'll attack "inside" America if there's any retaliation.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/us-iran-soleimani-tensions-intl-01-07-20/h_8e12409c0a75864b3d32bde875c534f7

[stokesmessiah]

According to Iranian State TV, if the US respond to the latest attacks, Hezbollah will attack Israel.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1214713938165805056

There's also a threat that they'll attack "inside" America if there's any retaliation.

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/us-iran-soleimani-tensions-intl-01-07-20/h_8e12409c0a75864b3d32bde875c534f7

I can’t see any world where Trump doesn’t reply.

[Future17]

Ukranian airliner crashes after take off in Tehran. 170 on board.

[Jones28]

22 missile strikes in total over night. It’s going to kick off.

[Bristolhibby]

BBC Correspondent outside the MOD this morning.

No service personnel deaths or injury. That’s a relief!

J

[RyeSloan]

22 missile strikes in total over night. It’s going to kick off.

Or maybe not. Seems Iran warned the US what was coming and having rattled their sabres Iran might feel they have made their point. For now. I’m sure they have a more cunning plan up their sleeve for some revenge...maybe another attack of Saudi oil for example.

While no doubting Trumps actions are dangerous and seemingly without a clear tactical plan I think a lot of people forget that Iran does not, and will not, want a full out war as they know the simple fact is they would lose.

[Jones28]

Or maybe not. Seems Iran warned the US what was coming and having rattled their sabres Iran might feel they have made their point. For now. I’m sure they have a more cunning plan up their sleeve for some revenge...maybe another attack of Saudi oil for example.

While no doubting Trumps actions are dangerous and seemingly without a clear tactical plan I think a lot of people forget that Iran does not, and will not, want a full out war as they know the simple fact is they would lose.

Yepp, having listened to the analysis all morning I don’t think it will.

[Cataplana]

Yepp, having listened to the analysis all morning I don’t think it will.

I wouldn't be so sure Iran and it's allies would lose. However, they would sustain severe damage to their infrastructure, and that is a good enough reason to avoid war.

[JeMeSouviens]

Or maybe not. Seems Iran warned the US what was coming and having rattled their sabres Iran might feel they have made their point. For now. I’m sure they have a more cunning plan up their sleeve for some revenge...maybe another attack of Saudi oil for example.

While no doubting Trumps actions are dangerous and seemingly without a clear tactical plan I think a lot of people forget that Iran does not, and will not, want a full out war as they know the simple fact is they would lose.

:agree:

The Iranians are quite happy to continue to use their proxies to give the big bear a poke with multiple sticks here and there.

Ironically, if this assassination ends up in less US involvement in Iraq, it's going to make it easier for Iran's proxies to control more of Iraq and Syria. Opening up Iran's coveted corridor to the med.

otoh, building the corridor was part of Suleimani's strategy, so the US will hope taking him out sets it back.

[Hibrandenburg]

Just having watched Trump's news conference, I can't help but think that this was an orchestrated tit for tat.

[wpj]

Boris is doing his eh,uh, blustering stop start pish ruffling his hair act while saying nothing at all. What an absolutely useless prick. Corbyn asked some good reasonable questions, I am not a fan of both but these questions should be allowed in the house. Corbyn lacks the killing blow though. The legality issue is a justified question in international law. We have been there before with Blair.

[Jim44]

I'm still amazed that some fanatic/level headed person hasn't popped a cap in Trump yet.

Not that I would wish it on this idiot, but I can’t understand why he hasn’t been taken out yet. And, in terms of political and wartime protocol, how legal was Trump’s murder of the Iranian guy?

[Cataplana]

Trump did not look too cocky on tonight's news, and his language was reminiscent of somebody who had just had the sht kicked out of them, but still wanted to save face.

When he said Iran has stood down, it sounded more like a plea than a victorious statement. I suspect he wants this all to go away very quickly.

[Jim44]

Not that I would wish it on this idiot, but I can’t understand why he hasn’t been taken out yet. And, in terms of political and wartime protocol, how legal was Trump’s murder of the Iranian guy?

My first statement still applies, but, ignorance confessed, I didn’t know that the Iranian guy was a designated terrorist. I thought he was a political leader.

[Smartie]

I wouldn't be so sure Iran and it's allies would lose. However, they would sustain severe damage to their infrastructure, and that is a good enough reason to avoid war.

I suppose it would all be about how exactly you define winning and losing - it would be hard to see how anyone could really "win", but it would be easy to see how either side could lose.

[Jones28]

Deliberate attempt by trump to distract from impeachment?

[lapsedhibee]

Deliberate attempt by trump to distract from impeachment?

And an attempt to bump up his approval ratings in an election year. And probably a bit of willie-waving as well.

Johnson is in a bit of bother though, as Trump has now publicly instructed him to withdraw from the nucular deal with Iran.

[Future17]

Ukranian airliner crashes after take off in Tehran. 170 on board.

US media now reporting the Iranians shot this down with a missile.

[Cataplana]

US media now reporting the Iranians shot this down with a missile.

Any reports on the lack of casualties they are claiming at their air bases. I would expect pictures to show that "all is well."

As for the plane, the only way they would know is if they were actually there. What proof are they offering?

[GlesgaeHibby]

Any reports on the lack of casualties they are claiming at their air bases. I would expect pictures to show that "all is well."

As for the plane, the only way they would know is if they were actually there. What proof are they offering?

Satellite blips detecting two missile launches and one detecting an explosion.

Would tie in with the fact that the flight data shows a normal take-off and ascent, and the fact that no distress calls were sent.

Iranians were quick to jump in suggesting engine failure, when it was clear to see from flight data that an engine failure was highly unlikely to be the cause.

[Cataplana]

Satellite blips detecting two missile launches and one detecting an explosion.

Would tie in with the fact that the flight data shows a normal take-off and ascent, and the fact that no distress calls were sent.

Iranians were quick to jump in suggesting engine failure, when it was clear to see from flight data that an engine failure was highly unlikely to be the cause.

Thanks, that makes sense, do they know where the missile was fired from.

[Mibbes Aye]

US media now reporting the Iranians shot this down with a missile.

I’m going to throw in a spicy twist!

We are in 2020 and so much talk nowadays is about state actors carrying out assymetric and cyber warfare. All the major powers are reputed to be investing loads in how to get into other nations’ energy systems, communication systems, military command and control systems etc.

Would it take that much to hack into the tech of these missiles and have a go at steering it into international flight paths?

The question then would be who benefits? The Americans would be a simplistic answer but Russia have their history with Ukraine and want to retain influence in Iran as a proxy (while Iran probably don’t want to be anyone’s proxy).

Even more convoluted conspiracy theories on a postcard please. £5 book token for the most complicated yet slightly plausible!

[Cataplana]

I’m going to throw in a spicy twist!

We are in 2020 and so much talk nowadays is about state actors carrying out assymetric and cyber warfare. All the major powers are reputed to be investing loads in how to get into other nations’ energy systems, communication systems, military command and control systems etc.

Would it take that much to hack into the tech of these missiles and have a go at steering it into international flight paths?

The question then would be who benefits? The Americans would be a simplistic answer but Russia have their history with Ukraine and want to retain influence in Iran as a proxy (while Iran probably don’t want to be anyone’s proxy).

Even more convoluted conspiracy theories on a postcard please. £5 book token for the most complicated yet slightly plausible!

KLM and the Dutch appear to have played a very long game.

[Hibrandenburg]

I'd imagine that the Iranian air defences were on high alert immediately after they'd bombed US targets in Iraq. Easy to imagine that someone might have mistakenly armed their GTA with wrong settings or there was a fault in the target recognition system. I don't think there's more to this appalling tragedy than that.

[Bristolhibby]

Satellite blips detecting two missile launches and one detecting an explosion.

Would tie in with the fact that the flight data shows a normal take-off and ascent, and the fact that no distress calls were sent.

Iranians were quick to jump in suggesting engine failure, when it was clear to see from flight data that an engine failure was highly unlikely to be the cause.

Also I’ve seen some tell tail shrapnel holes in the wreckage that lines up with a surface to air missile hit.

I’ll have a look for the pics.

J

[Bristolhibby]

I'd imagine that the Iranian air defences were on high alert immediately after they'd bombed US targets in Iraq. Easy to imagine that someone might have mistakenly armed their GTA with wrong settings or there was a fault in the target recognition system. I don't think there's more to this appalling tragedy than that.

This. My first thought when I heard about it. The Iranian Air Defence system would have been on high alert expecting an immediate US response.

J

[Billy Whizz]

British citizens onboard

[Ozyhibby]

British citizens onboard

3 I think. Mostly Canadians though who had been to a wedding.


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[Billy Whizz]

3 I think. Mostly Canadians though who had been to a wedding.


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Absolutely shocking if they’ve been shot down. Do we lay the blame at Trump now

[Ozyhibby]

Absolutely shocking if they’ve been shot down. Do we lay the blame at Trump now

Nah, this one is on the Iranians. I suppose flying airliners in and out of what is now a war zone is not such a great idea though. More than likely this is an accident.


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[Billy Whizz]

Nah, this one is on the Iranians. I suppose flying airliners in and out of what is now a war zone is not such a great idea though. More than likely this is an accident.


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Who started it though

[RyeSloan]

Who started it though

It’s not a playground fight!

How far back do you want to go with that question?

IF it was an Iranian missile then it’s pretty clear it’s on them. Or indeed we could blame the Russians for selling them the missiles.

Iranian flight 655 was shot down by the US in error after the cruiser had been attacked by Iranian speedboats...if we are to follow the Trump started it logic we would need to blame the Iranians for that one even although it was clearly a US missile fired from a US cruiser.

[Mr Grieves]

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2020/01/09/video-apparently-showing-flight-ps572-missile-strike-geolocated-to-iranian-suburb/

[Future17]

I’m going to throw in a spicy twist!

We are in 2020 and so much talk nowadays is about state actors carrying out assymetric and cyber warfare. All the major powers are reputed to be investing loads in how to get into other nations’ energy systems, communication systems, military command and control systems etc.

Would it take that much to hack into the tech of these missiles and have a go at steering it into international flight paths?

The question then would be who benefits? The Americans would be a simplistic answer but Russia have their history with Ukraine and want to retain influence in Iran as a proxy (while Iran probably don’t want to be anyone’s proxy).

Even more convoluted conspiracy theories on a postcard please. £5 book token for the most complicated yet slightly plausible!

The Iranians apparently use Russian-made missile systems. Read into that what you will.

[Bristolhibby]

The Iranians apparently use Russian-made missile systems. Read into that what you will.

Well they ain’t going to use an American or Israeli Air Defence System!

Russia is their only viable supplier. Especially as the Russians are being canny. They have sold the Turks some of their Air Defence Systems. Likewise the Syrians. I’d say they are building a formidable presence in the Middle East. They have a Mediterranean port in Syria now as well.

J

[Ozyhibby]

Well they ain’t going to use an American or Israeli Air Defence System!

Russia is their only viable supplier. Especially as the Russians are being canny. They have sold the Turks some of their Air Defence Systems. Likewise the Syrians. I’d say they are building a formidable presence in the Middle East. They have a Mediterranean port in Syria now as well.

J

Not bad for a country with a smaller economy than Holland’s.


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[Slavers]

Not bad for a country with a smaller economy than Holland’s.


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Russian Economy - GDP 1.578 trillion USD (2017) World Bank (http://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators)

Netherlands Economy - GDP 826.2 billion USD (2017) World Bank (http://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators)

[MagicSwirlingShip]

Not bad for a country with a smaller economy than Holland’s.


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Reports are they’ve just discovered a 53 billion barrel oil field. To add to their 150billion barrel reserves. They’re no skint.

[Ozyhibby]

Russian Economy - GDP 1.578 trillion USD (2017) World Bank (http://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators)

Netherlands Economy - GDP 826.2 billion USD (2017) World Bank (http://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators)

Italy then.[emoji23]


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[Ozyhibby]

Reports are they’ve just discovered a 53 billion barrel oil field. To add to their 150billion barrel reserves. They’re no skint.

Venezuela and Saudi Arabia both have a lot more than them with much smaller populations to share it among but both are dirt poor.


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[RyeSloan]

Interesting video on the BBC possibly showing the missile strike on the plane...accompanied by vehement denials from the Iranians that the plane was shot down.

[Mibbes Aye]

Not bad for a country with a smaller economy than Holland’s.


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Wrong thread and you meant to compare it to Ireland :-)

[Ozyhibby]

Wrong thread and you meant to compare it to Ireland :-)

Denmark is my new favourite. Miles ahead of Scotland for no good reason. [emoji6]


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[Billy Whizz]

Denmark is my new favourite. Miles ahead of Scotland for no good reason. [emoji6]


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Think they are the most content nation in Europe

[Mibbes Aye]

Denmark is my new favourite. Miles ahead of Scotland for no good reason. [emoji6]


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It’s obvious.

We had Kenny Dalglish but they superceded us with Michael Laudrup.

Watched it all on a 28-inch box TV.

[Pretty Boy]

Interesting video on the BBC possibly showing the missile strike on the plane...accompanied by vehement denials from the Iranians that the plane was shot down.

Iran now admitting they shot the plane down but claiming it was an accident......

[Ozyhibby]

Iran now admitting they shot the plane down but claiming it was an accident......

That makes total sense. Their air defence system would have been on high alert and you can see how mistakes could happen.


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[Jim44]

Iran now admitting they shot the plane down but claiming it was an accident......

.......... but claiming it was the USA’s fault for creating the context in which the ‘accident’ happened.

[RyeSloan]

All geopolitical and human cost aside you have to wonder as just how badly Iran has managed the fall out from this.

Their desperate denials re shooting down the plane when they would clearly have known right from the start that it had happened has not gone down well with their own.

What started as a clear act of US aggression has ended up showing the Iranian authorities as bare faced liars to their own people.

And yes I’m sure the western media are bigging up what are probably quite small protests but none the less it’s far from a good look. I’m fully expecting the Iranians to wheel out a few sacrificial lambs double quick to try and take the heat off the top brass.

[Pretty Boy]

https://roarmag.org/essays/soleimani-killing-anti-imperialism/