Northernhibee
17-12-2019, 12:01 PM
We've been pretty hard on the defence this season but we're not far off being an excellent team at all IMO.
The league table at this moment looks like this:
1.
Celtic
16
14
1
1
48:9
43
?WWWWW
2.
Rangers
16
13
2
1
47:10
41
?WDWWW
3.
Aberdeen
18
9
5
4
26:22
32
?WLDWD
4.
Motherwell
18
10
1
7
29:24
31
?LWWWL
5.
Kilmarnock
18
6
5
7
17:21
23
?LLDDW
6.
Hibernian
18
5
7
6
27:31
22
?LWLDW
7.
Ross County
17
5
5
7
20:35
20
?WWLLL
8.
Livingston
18
4
7
7
23:27
19
?DWDDL
9.
St. Mirren
18
4
3
11
15:27
15
?DWLLL
10.
St. Johnstone
16
3
6
7
14:33
15
?WDLDL
11.
Hearts
17
2
6
9
16:28
12
?LLDLL
12.
Hamilton
18
2
6
10
16:31
12
?LLLDL
27 goals scored, 31 conceded. Only Motherwell, Celtic and Rangers have scored more than us so with a better defence we should expect to be higher than sixth. Only Ross County and St. Johnstone have conceded more.
However, the last ten games paints a different story:
Form: Last 10 matches (HOME AND AWAY)
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Rangers
10
8
2
0
31
5
+26
26
2
Celtic
10
8
1
1
28
6
+22
25
3
Aberdeen
10
6
2
2
16
12
+4
20
4
Hibernian
10
4
5
1
21
13
+8
17
5
Motherwell
10
5
0
5
14
14
0
15
6
Kilmarnock
10
3
3
4
11
14
-3
12
7
St Johnstone
10
3
3
4
9
16
-7
12
8
St Mirren
10
3
1
6
12
19
-7
10
9
Ross County
10
2
3
5
12
26
-14
9
10
Livingston
10
1
5
4
11
16
-5
8
11
Hearts
10
1
3
6
7
16
-9
6
12
Hamilton
10
0
4
6
9
16
-7
4
Celtic have only scored seven more goals than us in our last ten games and we're third for goals scored in the last ten. A brilliant turnaround. Even more interestingly, we've conceded thirteen in our last ten. This still harks back to our era under Heckingbottom but the general picture is much better under May and Ross - we're currently fourth best in terms of goals conceded. Our goal difference is the third best in the league in the last ten games too.
Also interestingly, Celtic are averaging 2.8 goals scored per game and even with a rested team after they played a weakened squad in the Europa League, we kept them at two goals. We conceded less than we'd have expected to have done under them.
Eighteen goals conceded in the first eight games, then thirteen conceded in the ten after that. We've played Aberdeen twice in that run (if I'm not mistaken), Celtic away from home, Killie as well who are a tough team.
If we take the same ratio we've conceded in the last ten games and apply them to the first eight we'd have expected to have conceded 10.4 in the first eight of the season, taking us up to 23.4 conceded. Only the top three have conceded less than that, and even if we don't adjust the goals scored per game into account for the new manager coming in we're outscoring Aberdeen.
This team going by the admittedly very unscientific method would have been good enough to challenge for third if it wasn't for the bad start and truth be told, compared to other teams in the league isn't nearly as shaky at the back as some would suggest.
The league table at this moment looks like this:
1.
Celtic
16
14
1
1
48:9
43
?WWWWW
2.
Rangers
16
13
2
1
47:10
41
?WDWWW
3.
Aberdeen
18
9
5
4
26:22
32
?WLDWD
4.
Motherwell
18
10
1
7
29:24
31
?LWWWL
5.
Kilmarnock
18
6
5
7
17:21
23
?LLDDW
6.
Hibernian
18
5
7
6
27:31
22
?LWLDW
7.
Ross County
17
5
5
7
20:35
20
?WWLLL
8.
Livingston
18
4
7
7
23:27
19
?DWDDL
9.
St. Mirren
18
4
3
11
15:27
15
?DWLLL
10.
St. Johnstone
16
3
6
7
14:33
15
?WDLDL
11.
Hearts
17
2
6
9
16:28
12
?LLDLL
12.
Hamilton
18
2
6
10
16:31
12
?LLLDL
27 goals scored, 31 conceded. Only Motherwell, Celtic and Rangers have scored more than us so with a better defence we should expect to be higher than sixth. Only Ross County and St. Johnstone have conceded more.
However, the last ten games paints a different story:
Form: Last 10 matches (HOME AND AWAY)
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Rangers
10
8
2
0
31
5
+26
26
2
Celtic
10
8
1
1
28
6
+22
25
3
Aberdeen
10
6
2
2
16
12
+4
20
4
Hibernian
10
4
5
1
21
13
+8
17
5
Motherwell
10
5
0
5
14
14
0
15
6
Kilmarnock
10
3
3
4
11
14
-3
12
7
St Johnstone
10
3
3
4
9
16
-7
12
8
St Mirren
10
3
1
6
12
19
-7
10
9
Ross County
10
2
3
5
12
26
-14
9
10
Livingston
10
1
5
4
11
16
-5
8
11
Hearts
10
1
3
6
7
16
-9
6
12
Hamilton
10
0
4
6
9
16
-7
4
Celtic have only scored seven more goals than us in our last ten games and we're third for goals scored in the last ten. A brilliant turnaround. Even more interestingly, we've conceded thirteen in our last ten. This still harks back to our era under Heckingbottom but the general picture is much better under May and Ross - we're currently fourth best in terms of goals conceded. Our goal difference is the third best in the league in the last ten games too.
Also interestingly, Celtic are averaging 2.8 goals scored per game and even with a rested team after they played a weakened squad in the Europa League, we kept them at two goals. We conceded less than we'd have expected to have done under them.
Eighteen goals conceded in the first eight games, then thirteen conceded in the ten after that. We've played Aberdeen twice in that run (if I'm not mistaken), Celtic away from home, Killie as well who are a tough team.
If we take the same ratio we've conceded in the last ten games and apply them to the first eight we'd have expected to have conceded 10.4 in the first eight of the season, taking us up to 23.4 conceded. Only the top three have conceded less than that, and even if we don't adjust the goals scored per game into account for the new manager coming in we're outscoring Aberdeen.
This team going by the admittedly very unscientific method would have been good enough to challenge for third if it wasn't for the bad start and truth be told, compared to other teams in the league isn't nearly as shaky at the back as some would suggest.