Lennon v Heckingbottom stats

[Ozyhibby]

Interesting article.

https://www.modernfitba.com/blogs/2019/4/11/utcsfdm8k3med4tble8z18rhh6iq1v



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[matty_f]

It's an interesting perspective. Personally, I think we look better under Heckingbottom than we did at the end of Lennon's time.

[Power]

It's an interesting perspective. Personally, I think we look better under Heckingbottom than we did at the end of Lennon's time.

Found it intriguing too. The stats are raw but doesn’t take into account our ability to flex, adapt and change.

[Hibee Mac]

Definitely an interesting read.

Stats are stats. Interesting to delve into but there's no question that Hibs are markedly improved under Hecky and Celtic's performances have declined under Lennon. The points say so, the fans who watch 90 mins every week think so.

[worcesterhibby]

It's interesting that Lennon's teams (both hibs and celtic) create more chances, but score less..is that because players under his managership are scared to fail ? His combatative style of management maybe means that if you miss good chances you are in the dog house...this leads to pressure..which makes the chances harder to score and actually has a negative effect. Heckingbottom and Rogers both seem to have a much calmer, friendlier style of management, where people aren't afraid of missing and therefore have less pressure. Maybe...would perhaps explain the anomalies in the stats.

[BILLYHIBS]

Interesting read

For a statistician there is a lot of whataboutery in his analysis i.e.” HIBS great results under Heckingbottom have been helped by opponents failure to take their chances.” :confused:

At the end of the day he fails to mention NLs three wins in 15 games or take into account his performance,irrational behaviour,tactics, poor team selections,avoidance of basic duties expected from a top flight Manager poor man management skills and an inability to sustain a working relationship with staff and his immediate superior

The improvement in performances under Heckingbottom are there for all to see and it does not need a master statistician to work that one out

Under Heckingbottom we have played eight games in the Premier League Won 6 Drawn 2 = 20 pts

I have no doubt that under NL we were headed for bottom six and a parting of the ways was inevitable as it was obvious he had run out of ideas about how to turn things around

His time so far at Celtic has been a continuation of his time at HIBS uninspiring and no idea how to change things when things start to go wrong

Night and day!

[Viva_Palmeiras]

Interesting article.

https://www.modernfitba.com/blogs/2019/4/11/utcsfdm8k3med4tble8z18rhh6iq1v



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So 2 different managers taking on teams with different form, different players, different opposition, different styles.

I know now there’s a tendency / demand to cover from ALL angles but really? (I’ve had a few and reserve the right to change my mind in the morning as I’m in a narky mood :)

[The_Horde]

So 2 different managers taking on teams with different form, different players, different opposition, different styles.

I know now there’s a tendency / demand to cover from ALL angles but really? (I’ve had a few and reserve the right to change my mind in the morning as I’m in a narky mood :)

Pretty much backs up my assessment of Hecky's time. I've felt in some games we have got lucky.

That said, I do feel Hecky is getting more out of the players that we have and under Lennon with the same players we were in relegation form.

Lennon also had a good chunk of the season with better attacking options and even had SJM for one game.

All in all very interesting. I'm sure around this time last season the same guy predicted Kamberi's goal slump.

[green day]

So 2 different managers taking on teams with different form, different players, different opposition, different styles.

I know now there’s a tendency / demand to cover from ALL angles but really? (I’ve had a few and reserve the right to change my mind in the morning as I’m in a narky mood :)

No, I agree with you - all this xG pish is just that - this guy expecting me to believe that Lennons underlying performance was better than PH start?

Loady*****............

[Ozyhibby]

Pretty much backs up my assessment of Hecky's time. I've felt in some games we have got lucky.

That said, I do feel Hecky is getting more out of the players that we have and under Lennon with the same players we were in relegation form.

Lennon also had a good chunk of the season with better attacking options and even had SJM for one game.

All in all very interesting. I'm sure around this time last season the same guy predicted Kamberi's goal slump.

He did indeed and also McLarens.



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[The_Horde]

He did indeed and also McLarens.



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Difference this time is I think Hecky is managing this squad til the end of the season as best he can and next season we'll see a true reflection of a Heckingbottom side.

Last season Flo and Maclaren had excellent sources behind them and it's been obvious how much of an effect that loss had.

[SlickShoes]

We have had a threadbare squad for ages now and heckingbottom has not really had many options to drastically change the personnel so i don't think its surprising that the performances look the same on paper. The difference seems to be more psycholgical, the players aren't scared to fail so they are playing with a bit more confidence. The addition of McNulty can't be overstated though, we were creating chances before he arrived but they weren't nearly as good and he wasn't there putting them away. That one player has made a huge difference along with the new manager bounce.

[Radium]

Not all answers are on a spreadsheet

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[Glory Lurker]

Lennon really wasn't that good. Heck's got us being at least the sum of our parts. Much happier now about Hibs than I was a few months ago.

[Since452]

Lennon joined Hibs at the absolute optimum time after we won the Scottish Cup. Didn't have to do much other than ride the crest of a Tsunami for a couple of seasons. We'd have won the Championship under me that season and probably more emphatically then obviously had the promotion bounce while we were all still buzzing. Would have been interesting to see how Lennon got on taking over a struggling Hibs team, he certainly left one.

[Not In The Know]

Take John mcginn out lennons team and we would be bang average. Just look at the difference in the two away games in Europe.

[green day]

I reread the stats article this morning - I am sure he is absolutely right in his statistical analysis.

As I said yesterday, I personally find all this xG nonsense to be quite boring, but if it floats your boat, cool.

That we created less chances v Hearts and still won is seen in his stats as a potential negative in future matches - whereas I see it as evidence of a team playign for their manager and willing to dig in.

Where his article turns to pish for me is his assessment that stats suggest we are due a downturn in fortunes between now and the end of the season due to the xG anomoly so far.

You dont need some analyst to tell us this - we are now in the top 6 and all remaining matches will be hard fought against decent sides - its almost inevitable that we wont continue the form of the first 8 matches under PH.

I judge a manager on how I feel - right now, its good, very good. Last 2 months under Lennon were all a bit "meh".

[ED Hibee]

I don’t think anyone could deny that Lennon got us some great results and performances particularly towards the end of last season and at the beginning of this season. However it was the alarmingly rapid drop in performances and results which caused concern.

A fairer and perhaps more interesting comparison of managerial roles would be between Lennon’s last 9 games and Heckingbottom’s first 9. Or the number of chances we have created and scored in the latter stages of games. While we may have rode our luck at times in recent games I don’t think there has been one point where the players heads have gone down and they don’t seem interested in contrast to the last performances under Lennon.

As with all things you can often use statistics to promote what you want and the main stats for Heckingbottom is played 8 won 6 drawn 2 lost 0 and more importantly Hearts 1 Hibs 2!

[wookie70]

How do they work the xGoal stat out. It's an interesting analysis but a good chance with a defender giving you a last minute nudge or not are very different and I doubt it has that level of nuance. A good chance with Djoum on the ball is different to one with Sparky. What do the stats say about Keepers - Rocky's save against Killie was an xxxgoal opportunity but a great save stops it being a goal. Only one stat that counts is the amount of points you get in a game. So far Heck has us in League winning form if his record could be continued for a season.

Heck has us looking far more organised, working harder and also looking like a team. He has also done this without Boyle(major contributor in creating those xGoal moments for) and Efe and Porteous(major contributors in preventing xGoals against) I doubt any Hibby expects us to go unbeaten to the end of the season but if he can get another Derby win and a couple of draws or another win he will have made an excellent start with a threadbare squad not of his choosing. That bodes well for the future regardless of what the stats say. Even if the season fizzles out Heck has done enough imo to show he could be an excellent appointment.

[1van Sprou7e]

xG is a dumb stat imo

Trying to quantity the unquantifiable

[brog]

I don’t think anyone could deny that Lennon got us some great results and performances particularly towards the end of last season and at the beginning of this season. However it was the alarmingly rapid drop in performances and results which caused concern.

A fairer and perhaps more interesting comparison of managerial roles would be between Lennon’s last 9 games and Heckingbottom’s first 9. Or the number of chances we have created and scored in the latter stages of games. While we may have rode our luck at times in recent games I don’t think there has been one point where the players heads have gone down and they don’t seem interested in contrast to the last performances under Lennon.

As with all things you can often use statistics to promote what you want and the main stats for Heckingbottom is played 8 won 6 drawn 2 lost 0 and more importantly Hearts 1 Hibs 2!

Pretty much my thoughts. NL effectively had 2 different seasons in his final 1/2 season in charge. We started where we left off the prior season, scoring goals for fun & entertaining. After 2.5 months of the season we had lost 1 league game out of 8, won 5 & scored 19 goals, conceded 6. The next 3 months were a disaster. Won 2 out of 13, (ironically 1 against Celtc) & lost 6. We scored 11 but conceded 17. This gives NL total figures of won 7, lost 7 & drew 7 with a positive goal difference of 7! We do like a 7! These are the stats being used in this analysis but of course they don't tell the whole truth & they don't reflect the situation at the time of his departure ( no wins in 5 ). Dropping 6 points at home against Dundee, Livi & St M helped drop us into the bottom 6 & the away performances at Motherwell & Killie were simply not acceptable. Managers always depart because of their current, not historic results & new managers always get a bounce effect. In Heck's case this was helped (just like OGS) by a favourable run of fixtures.
This isn't intended to knock NL. I admire his courage & enjoyed his time at ER but we were on a Butcheresque downward spiral when he left & that's not truly reflected in this analysis.

[Pretty Boy]

Lie, damn lies and statistics.

I was at a presentation at EM given by Hibs own in house analysis team and they were pretty critical of the methodology and findings of the site linked to and others like it. I'll trust the professionals.

I liked Neil Lennon (that should be like actually) and I like Heckingbotttom. I can see with my own eyes we are a better side now than we were for much of the last 3 months of NLs time in charge. We aren't 'lucky' to be winning games right now; the whole concept of luck is essentially a belief in a supernatural force determining the outcome of a football match. It doesn't exist.

[BILLYHIBS]

He concludes by saying Hibs are due a down turn and that NLs Celtic are about to take off by starting to convert the many chances created

I hope for NLs sake he is correct

Celtic face a tough match on Sunday and it has become a must win game for NL

Losing is not an option

As for HIBS we go into the final five games reinvigorated and batteries recharged and hopefully we might get some of our players back from injury

Opposition forwards missing goal scoring opportunities against us is not something that has ever bothered me

In Paul Heckingbottom we trust!

[Stevie Reid]

Haven't read the article but I know what I can see with my own eyes - whilst in every game we've had very ropey spells under PH, there's a feeling about the team that's very different from the latter stages under Lennon. More resilience at the back, and we seem to be far moire dangerous going forward. I definitely think there's been quite a few things that have gone our way under PH that possibly hadn't for a while - but that's football, and I'll sure as **** take them when they come along, as we've had plenty go against us before that.

It would have been interesting to see the impact that McNulty would have if Lennon had still been here, but it's very hard to imagine that we could have gone on anywhere near as good a run - though ultimately we'll never know, of course. Bottom line is that I loved Lennon as Hibs manager, but he is long gone now - the early signs under Hecky are really exciting and encouraging, and I'm really looking forward to the next few games, and next season.

[scooby]

It's interesting that Lennon's teams (both hibs and celtic) create more chances, but score less..is that because players under his managership are scared to fail ? His combatative style of management maybe means that if you miss good chances you are in the dog house...this leads to pressure..which makes the chances harder to score and actually has a negative effect. Heckingbottom and Rogers both seem to have a much calmer, friendlier style of management, where people aren't afraid of missing and therefore have less pressure. Maybe...would perhaps explain the anomalies in the stats.

Very good point 👍

[Fergus52]

xG is a dumb stat imo

Trying to quantity the unquantifiable

xG is dumb when it's put on a pedestal as the only important thing to look at. As an other poster said it can fail to take into account how good the opposition goalie is, the body position of the striker etc. And thus different xG models will produce very different results.

However with a good model, xG has been proven multiple times to be a much better indicator of a teams long term success than points won or goals scored.

[Jack Hackett]

xG is a dumb stat imo

Trying to quantity the unquantifiable

Absolutely. A fingertip save, a fumbled save. An inch past the post, an inch inside the post. An offside decision which is wrong either way. You can't measure football with a slide rule... or a calculator for you youngsters. Just ask Ian Cathro :greengrin

[hibee316]

Lie, damn lies and statistics.

I was at a presentation at EM given by Hibs own in house analysis team and they were pretty critical of the methodology and findings of the site linked to and others like it.

Could you tell us what they said about those sites?

I've only had one experience with that site and that is the one about Kamberi others have alluded to. He was going on about expected goals then and seems to be on the money with his assessment there.

I take it the Hibs team don't rate it as it isn't a complicated enough model to go on?

I'm glad Hibs are now using statistics to help with our preparation for games these days!

[jgl07]

I haven't read the article and probably will not bother.

On 23 January, just before Lennon was suspended, Hibs were in 8th place in the League. They were a point behind Livingston, 7 points behind Hearts and 8 behind St Johnstone. They were 15 adrift of Kilmarnock and Aberdeen. They also had a Motherwell side coming into a great run breathing down their necks.

Now Hibs are 5th, 2 points ahead of Hearts and within 6 points of Kilmarnock and Aberdeen. They are 10 points ahead of Livingston and 8 ahead of St Johnstone.

If that doesn't constitute a staggering improvement, I don't know what does.

[hibee316]

Absolutely. A fingertip save, a fumbled save. An inch past the post, an inch inside the post. An offside decision which is wrong either way. You can't measure football with a slide rule... or a calculator for you youngsters. Just ask Ian Cathro :greengrin

...but you can build up a better picture of what is going on with a team and areas where things can be improved.

Every successful football team and nation uses it extensively.

It has got to be used in conjunction with good coaching though obviously. Cathro was absolutely not a good manager so no statistics in the world are going to help him!

[pacoluna]

Omeonga and McNulty will effect these stats.

2 very influential players.

[shamo9]

Omeonga and McNulty will effect these stats.

2 very influential players.


True, but we've also lost Ambrose, Porteous and Boyle. They were all to some degree significant to the way we played.

[worcesterhibby]

We aren't 'lucky' to be winning games right now; the whole concept of luck is essentially a belief in a supernatural force determining the outcome of a football match. It doesn't exist.

I know that and you know that...but just try telling my lucky pants that !!

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/GIwAAOSwpDdVT-RZ/s-l640.jpg

[PatHead]

I know that and you know that...but just try telling my lucky pants that !!

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/GIwAAOSwpDdVT-RZ/s-l640.jpg

What you wash them!