Current Brexit Views

[GlesgaeHibby]

Voted remain, and still strongly remain after watching this shambles unfold. Interested to see how others view this, particularly if there has been a swing from leave to remain.

[IGRIGI]

I didn't vote first time around, I was inbetween remain and leave, saw advantages to both but slightly sided with remain at the time due to the lack of vision from Leave on what Brexit would actually mean.

Since then I went into the Leave camp, I actually see a number of advantages to a no deal scenario and the scare stories plus constant negativity on show from the Remain camp pushed me further into Leave, mirroring many who were initially No during the Scottish referendum and then voted yes due to the constant negativity.

I'm also very uneasily at the adulation and almost worshipping of the EU from many indy Yes voters given the EU's actions during the Scottish referendum.

Having said all that however I'd still be undecided in another referendum, I'd vote Leave if Scotland was independent prefering a situation like Norway in EFTA, however given independence for me is a priority I'd consider being sneaky and helping the Scottish remain vote to further fuel the case for another independence referendum.

[Glory Lurker]

Voted remain, still remain.

There’s a lot of room for improvement in the EU, but the benefits of it outweigh that. For me, the present alternatives of Chequers or no deal are as appetising as a bucket of cold sick.

[grunt]

I actually see a number of advantages to a no deal scenario ...Help me out here. What advantages are there in a no deal scenario?

[Moulin Yarns]

Help me out here. What advantages are there in a no deal scenario?


Take back control and a slogan on a bus :wink:

[Pretty Boy]

Voted remain, still remain.

The EU is imperfect but it's preferable to any alternative proposal I've seen put forward thus far.

[Just Alf]

and a slogan on a bus :wink:

The bus one was a beauty, especially when a couple of months ago the Government (May) crowed about delivering on the promise even although we weren't yet out the EU as she announced additional funding for the NHS.

They went all quiet when it was pointed out that NHS is normally given some additional funding every year to mitigate inflation and this time around it was less than expected so actually a cut!

[Mibbes Aye]

Voted remain, still remain.

The EU is imperfect but it's preferable to any alternative proposal I've seen put forward thus far.

It is imperfect but there is a bit of "...What have the Romans ever done for us" with the EU, in that the impact on our day-to-day lives is pound-for-pound hugely positive, which seems to have been forgotten about in all the tumult.

Like you say, there's no real positive as an alternative, which isn't a surprise but again seems to be being missed.

[Hibrandenburg]

Being unable to vote in UK national elections and referendums I'm basically democratically neutered. It was a price I was willing to pay to enjoy the benefits of free movement within the EU and one that allowed me to make my home and start a family anywhere I liked. Now that the UK has decided to leave the EU me and many like me have had their hand forced. I've now started the process to obtain German citizenship to ensure my families continued security and it's something I never thought I'd have to do. Fortunately I've prepared financially for my retirement and have enough years under my belt to draw a full UK pension as well as qualifying for a fairly decent German one provided I continue to work here or in another EU state for the next few years. Together with my army pension and 2 private ones I will be reasonably comfortable. However I can't help but feel sorry for the many who don't have enough years under their belt and who might now not be able to add UK and EU pension credits together. If I had a choice then I'd prefer the status quo and can't help but feel resentment at having to adjust life plans that were a given only 5 short years ago. Guess I'll have to buy that wee retirement house on the Portuguese or Spanish coast now instead of Fife.

[Peevemor]

Being unable to vote in UK national elections and referendums I'm basically democratically neutered. It was a price I was willing to pay to enjoy the benefits of free movement within the EU and one that allowed me to make my home and start a family anywhere I liked. Now that the UK has decided to leave the EU me and many like me have had their hand forced. I've now started the process to obtain German citizenship to ensure my families continued security and it's something I never thought I'd have to do. Fortunately I've prepared financially for my retirement and have enough years under my belt to draw a full UK pension as well as qualifying for a fairly decent German one provided I continue to work here or in another EU state for the next few years. Together with my army pension and 2 private ones I will be reasonably comfortable. However I can't help but feel sorry for the many who don't have enough years under their belt and who might now not be able to add UK and EU pension credits together. If I had a choice then I'd prefer the status quo and can't help but feel resentment at having to adjust life plans that were a given only 5 short years ago. Guess I'll have to buy that wee retirement house on the Portuguese or Spanish coast now instead of Fife.I'm in the same boat. I'm often asked why I haven't taken French citizenship (I've lived here 15 years), and I always reply that I'm not French, I don't feel French and I doubt I ever will. Now it looks like I'll have to get measured up for a stripy jumper and a beret.

Quelle bande de cons ces rosbif !

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Voted remain, still remain.

There’s a lot of room for improvement in the EU, but the benefits of it outweigh that. For me, the present alternatives of Chequers or no deal are as appetising as a bucket of cold sick.

Agree with this.

[Bristolhibby]

Remain and remain for me.

Such a monumentally stupid form of self harm.

My mate and I were discussing it and he has believed that it is so big that it will never happen. We might leave in name only and get our blue passports, but in effect we will just stay but have ZERO impact on the rules.

It’s the worst of all worlds, but is the least worse option.

That way when the madness has subsided we can rejoin again as we will in effect have never left.

J

[Chic Murray]

Let's get on with it, although those who work will see a further decrease in wages as they compete with cheap labour from China and Africa, as opposed to cheap labour from Europe. The ultimate irony is that a large amount of people who voted to leave don't work at all, and won't notice any difference.

They call them "the left behind." If I was left behind, I'd be on the next bus out of the place, but they are sitting in their own mess trying to drag everyone back.

Big money men will be the winners in the end.

[Fife-Hibee]

Voted remain. Still YES. :wink:

[Fife-Hibee]

The ultimate irony is that a large amount of people who voted to leave don't work at all, and won't notice any difference

Define a "large amount". The unemployment rate is rather small, which means that even if everybody who was unemployed voted to leave, it would still have only made up a small fraction of the overall vote.

If by unemployed you actually mean "retired". Then that's a whole other matter.

[Chic Murray]

Define a "large amount". The unemployment rate is rather small, which means that even if everybody who was unemployed voted to leave, it would still have only made up a small fraction of the overall vote.

If by unemployed you actually mean "retired". Then that's a whole other matter.

I didn't think you needed evidence in a Brexit debate, just a sense of prejudice.

In other words, I'm bang to rights, I have no idea, but it fitted my narrative. :greengrin

[norhfc]

Being unable to vote in UK national elections and referendums I'm basically democratically neutered. It was a price I was willing to pay to enjoy the benefits of free movement within the EU and one that allowed me to make my home and start a family anywhere I liked. Now that the UK has decided to leave the EU me and many like me have had their hand forced. I've now started the process to obtain German citizenship to ensure my families continued security and it's something I never thought I'd have to do. Fortunately I've prepared financially for my retirement and have enough years under my belt to draw a full UK pension as well as qualifying for a fairly decent German one provided I continue to work here or in another EU state for the next few years. Together with my army pension and 2 private ones I will be reasonably comfortable. However I can't help but feel sorry for the many who don't have enough years under their belt and who might now not be able to add UK and EU pension credits together. If I had a choice then I'd prefer the status quo and can't help but feel resentment at having to adjust life plans that were a given only 5 short years ago. Guess I'll have to buy that wee retirement house on the Portuguese or Spanish coast now instead of Fife.

Same boat, never thought I,d need a Norwegian Passport as Norway basically follows EU regulations. Thats all gone tits up so I am now considering a Norwegian Passport. My two kids have British at the moment but will change them when they expire shortly. I have been out of UK for so long I wont get a UK pension but thats fine, Norways is so much more, my problem is I have property in Edinburgh. Not sure what to do, will wait and see I suppose, having a foreign Passport could cause me problems as I am back and forth quite often. Really get my head round why this all happened and my families status will all change in march next year. Now I am hoping for a Scottish Passport with EU stamped on the front.

[Bristolhibby]

Same boat, never thought I,d need a Norwegian Passport as Norway basically follows EU regulations. Thats all gone tits up so I am now considering a Norwegian Passport. My two kids have British at the moment but will change them when they expire shortly. I have been out of UK for so long I wont get a UK pension but thats fine, Norways is so much more, my problem is I have property in Edinburgh. Not sure what to do, will wait and see I suppose, having a foreign Passport could cause me problems as I am back and forth quite often. Really get my head round why this all happened and my families status will all change in march next year. Now I am hoping for a Scottish Passport with EU stamped on the front.

Go for Dual Nationality. That way you have the Norwegian Passport for staying at home and your British / Scottish one when you come back to Edinburgh.

J

[norhfc]

Go for Dual Nationality. That way you have the Norwegian Passport for staying at home and your British / Scottish one when you come back to Edinburgh.

J

Norway currently doesnt allow dual nationalities, think it could be the only country in europe who doesnt. Although saying that I heard recently they are reviewing this, it will be a solution for me if they do :agree:

[matty_f]

I voted remain and am still of the opinion that we should remain.

My biggest concern is that we have a Government who are not only making it up as they go along, but seem wholly incompetent with regards to steering the country through Brexit.

When you hear Theresa May, I don't even think she has the language capacity to understand what it's all about - she is virtually incoherent and can't answer simple questions. She's like a rabbit in the headlights, when the rabbit's been out on the sauce all day and doesn't know if it's going home or heading for a stew.

No deal looks increasingly likely, IMHO - the closer the exit date gets, the stronger the EU's negotiation hand is. This 'no deal is better than a bad deal' is nothing but hyperbole, it's a slogan that means nothing. No deal is a terrible situation, and to pretend that it's better than having something arranged is lunacy.

Under normal circumstances, I'd be amazed that the people responsible for the country hadn't already put the brakes on the whole thing and at least offered the second referendum, if not canned the whole thing. Unfortunately, we're governed by a bunch of Etonian ****ers who care for their own interests and not a lot else, and so it's not amazing that we're getting dragged down with them, it's completely expected.

[Bristolhibby]

Correct. And they should be taken to task on this. We aren’t buying a car here, the fall back isn’t “take the bus”. A bad deal is better than no deal. And the bad deal is definately worse than what we have now.

Doing some importing of goods at the moment from Israel, we (by virtue of being in the EU) have a free trade agreement with Israel, so no import duty to be paid.

**** knows what happens from the 1st April 2019. Additional cost I’d assume, and who is going to pick that cost up?

J

[RyeSloan]

I didn't think you needed evidence in a Brexit debate, just a sense of prejudice.

In other words, I'm bang to rights, I have no idea, but it fitted my narrative. :greengrin

Ha ha good post [emoji736][emoji736][emoji23]

[Hibrandenburg]

No deal looks increasingly likely, IMHO - the closer the exit date gets, the stronger the EU's negotiation hand is. This 'no deal is better than a bad deal' is nothing but hyperbole, it's a slogan that means nothing. No deal is a terrible situation, and to pretend that it's better than having something arranged is lunacy.

This is something that frustrates me. The idea of article 50 is to negotiate how to get us from a position of EU membership to a no deal status or in other words the divorce. Then and only then can new deals be negotiated. Article 50 isn't intended to result in us renegotiating our relationship with the EU, it's there to pave the way of our exit.

[lucky]

Wanted to vote leave for a left wing U.K. but voted remain as there was no case being put forward for Leftexit. I also think that we should respect the referendum result and get on with making Brexit work.

I was a fervent no voter but when and if there’s another Scottish referendum I’ll make my mind up based on the economic arguments being made at that time. But I doubt we will see any referendum on the EU or Scotland in the next 5 years.

But if Scotland voted for independence would we get another one whether we wanted to give up our so called “freedom” back to the EU?

[PeeJay]

Being unable to vote in UK national elections and referendums I'm basically democratically neutered. It was a price I was willing to pay to enjoy the benefits of free movement within the EU and one that allowed me to make my home and start a family anywhere I liked. Now that the UK has decided to leave the EU me and many like me have had their hand forced. I've now started the process to obtain German citizenship to ensure my families continued security and it's something I never thought I'd have to do. Fortunately I've prepared financially for my retirement and have enough years under my belt to draw a full UK pension as well as qualifying for a fairly decent German one provided I continue to work here or in another EU state for the next few years. Together with my army pension and 2 private ones I will be reasonably comfortable. However I can't help but feel sorry for the many who don't have enough years under their belt and who might now not be able to add UK and EU pension credits together. If I had a choice then I'd prefer the status quo and can't help but feel resentment at having to adjust life plans that were a given only 5 short years ago. Guess I'll have to buy that wee retirement house on the Portuguese or Spanish coast now instead of Fife.

Would have voted remain too (naturally), but as an ex-pat, of course, I wasn't allowed to!! The referendum remit was badly flawed in my opinion: a qualified majority of 65%+ should have been the minimum requirement either way, after all this is an existential decision, not a vote for a bypass!

Good luck with the citizenship procedure by the way, it's easy enough if you meet all the requirements and the only advice I could give you is to keep at them "Beamten" if you feel it is taking too long - they always have two piles on their desk: one with the "to do" applications and one with the applications from people who keep phoning up asking how things are progressing - guess which one is smaller:rolleyes:. If you need any help with the "Einbürgerungstest" let me know :greengrin - I wanted to be first out the door for mine, but some little lady beat me to it by 30 seconds!!

Then again, maybe you should reconsider: is a future in a Soviet-Union prison camp really what you want for your family? :crazy: Hunt

[heretoday]

The bus one was a beauty, especially when a couple of months ago the Government (May) crowed about delivering on the promise even although we weren't yet out the EU as she announced additional funding for the NHS.

They went all quiet when it was pointed out that NHS is normally given some additional funding every year to mitigate inflation and this time around it was less than expected so actually a cut!
They had better give a lot more funding to the NHS and the care sector because they're going to be toiling for staff after Brexit.
Personally, I don't think it was just "the slogan on the bus wot won it". It was good old British xenophobia and racism.

[Hibrandenburg]

Would have voted remain too (naturally), but as an ex-pat, of course, I wasn't allowed to!! The referendum remit was badly flawed in my opinion: a qualified majority of 65%+ should have been the minimum requirement either way, after all this is an existential decision, not a vote for a bypass!

Good luck with the citizenship procedure by the way, it's easy enough if you meet all the requirements and the only advice I could give you is to keep at them "Beamten" if you feel it is taking too long - they always have two piles on their desk: one with the "to do" applications and one with the applications from people who keep phoning up asking how things are progressing - guess which one is smaller:rolleyes:. If you need any help with the "Einbürgerungstest" let me know :greengrin - I wanted to be first out the door for mine, but some little lady beat me to it by 30 seconds!!

Then again, maybe you should reconsider: is a future in a Soviet-Union prison camp really what you want for your family? :crazy: Hunt





Thanks Peejay. Obviously the Beamten in the city are a different breed to those out here in dunkel Deutschland. I made 2 phone calls of enquiry last week and now have them battering down my door to get this done. The application has pretty much been completed by them over the phone and I'm now at the stage where I've just got to do the Einbürgerungstest. The test needs to be applied for 4 weeks in advance which I did via telephone on Thursday. Once that's complete the friendly Beamtin Frau Bernard has assured me I can just pop by her office with the necessary documentation and test results and we'll get the whole thing rubber stamped within minutes. No hassle, no stress and I've yet to set foot in a government building.

The test is a piece of cake and I've run through a few online simulations recommended to me by the VHS school where I registered for the test. Passmark is 17 correct answers from 33 and I'm averaging 31 correct answers with a couple of guesses. It's not exactly Raketen Forschung and I expect to be a fully fledged member of the spiky hat sausage eating club early December.

I've actually gone from feelings of complete indifference to being a little excited about the move.

🎶🎵"4 World cups and no world wars, doo dah doo dah!". 🎵🎶

[Hibrandenburg]

Personally, I don't think it was just "the slogan on the bus wot won it". It was good old British xenophobia and racism.

The British are renowned around the world for being emotionally reserved until their blood alcohol levels have reached a certain level. Same applies for the nasty underlying sense of national superiority.

[Killiehibbie]

Define a "large amount". The unemployment rate is rather small, which means that even if everybody who was unemployed voted to leave, it would still have only made up a small fraction of the overall vote.

If by unemployed you actually mean "retired". Then that's a whole other matter.How many unemployed would there be when all those of working age and claiming other benefits are counted? Last time I saw it was reported at about double the unemployment rate. Method of counting unemployment rate has changed many times to make it look lower.

[RyeSloan]

How many unemployed would there be when all those of working age and claiming other benefits are counted? Last time I saw it was reported at about double the unemployment rate. Method of counting unemployment rate has changed many times to make it look lower.

For working age (16 - 64) the percentages are roughly as follows:

Employed 75%
Unemployed 4%
Economically inactive 21%

[danhibees1875]

For working age (16 - 64) the percentages are roughly as follows:

Employed 75%
Unemployed 4%
Economically inactive 21%

What does economically inactive mean? Does that include students (although most tend to have part time jobs from my experience) and those not fit enough to work?

[Killiehibbie]

What does economically inactive mean? Does that include students (although most tend to have part time jobs from my experience) and those not fit enough to work?

Those that don't meet the latest unemployment criteria, housewives, disabled, etc.

[danhibees1875]

Those that don't meet the latest unemployment criteria, housewives, disabled, etc.

Thanks. :aok:

Basically those that are, or should be, actively seeking employment but don't have any.

[RyeSloan]

Thanks. :aok:

Basically those that are, or should be, actively seeking employment but don't have any.

It’s a pretty wide church I think but no it’s doesn’t include those seeking work that don’t have a job...that’s the unemployed figure.

There is a thousand reasons (and some may indeed be classed as ‘should be looking to work’) but it is someone of working age that doesn’t work and is not currently actively seeking work be that because they look after the kids, are too sick to work, studying, don’t need to work because they have a trust fund etc.

[danhibees1875]

It’s a pretty wide church I think but no it’s doesn’t include those seeking work that don’t have a job...that’s the unemployed figure.

There is a thousand reasons (and some may indeed be classed as ‘should be looking to work’) but it is someone of working age that doesn’t work and is not currently actively seeking work be that because they look after the kids, are too sick to work, studying, don’t need to work because they have a trust fund etc.

Sorry, I've confused things. My second line that you've quoted was me stating what the unemployment figure (4%) meant!

Thanks for the detail though. :aok:

[bingo70]

I voted remain and am still of the opinion that we should remain.

My biggest concern is that we have a Government who are not only making it up as they go along, but seem wholly incompetent with regards to steering the country through Brexit.

When you hear Theresa May, I don't even think she has the language capacity to understand what it's all about - she is virtually incoherent and can't answer simple questions. She's like a rabbit in the headlights, when the rabbit's been out on the sauce all day and doesn't know if it's going home or heading for a stew.

No deal looks increasingly likely, IMHO - the closer the exit date gets, the stronger the EU's negotiation hand is. This 'no deal is better than a bad deal' is nothing but hyperbole, it's a slogan that means nothing. No deal is a terrible situation, and to pretend that it's better than having something arranged is lunacy.

Under normal circumstances, I'd be amazed that the people responsible for the country hadn't already put the brakes on the whole thing and at least offered the second referendum, if not canned the whole thing. Unfortunately, we're governed by a bunch of Etonian ****ers who care for their own interests and not a lot else, and so it's not amazing that we're getting dragged down with them, it's completely expected.

Is there any indication yet of what the short term impact of no deal Brexit will be?

I've heard stories about stockpiling medicine, supermarkets running out of food, the army being drafted on to the streets to help with transportation of certain goods and other fairly worrying possibilities. I'm guessing that these are scare stories that have been greatly exaggerated?

[matty_f]

Is there any indication yet of what the short term impact of no deal Brexit will be?

I've heard stories about stockpiling medicine, supermarkets running out of food, the army being drafted on to the streets to help with transportation of certain goods and other fairly worrying possibilities. I'm guessing that these are scare stories that have been greatly exaggerated?

I'm not sure - this is the problem when politicians refuse to give a straight answer to questions. I've not seen anything to say what will happen in the event of no deal being reached. I would presume that we would be treated the same as other non-EU countries looking to trade with the EU, but I don't know how trade terms have been reached with these countries (i.e. do they have an agreement each or a blanket agreement that covers trade across the non-EU countries?).

I would guess that without proper import/export agreements and rules then there is potential for a lot of things that rely on that to come to a bit of a standstill, or they might have something in place to track what's leaving and coming in and to try and deal with it retrospectively.

I think airports and ferry terminals, where passport control exists just now, will have to be changed - currently we can go relatively quickly through the EU line, whereas now we'll need to wait in a non-EU line. Might make things quicker coming back into the country mind, if we've got a UK queue to ourselves.

There are loads of things to be considered, I don't know if it's a cliff-edge exit where one day we're in and all rules apply, and the next we're out and on our own. I don't think the latter would suit anyone but we've had a couple of years to sort it out and the Government still don't seem to have a clue on how to effectively get us moving post-Brexit.

[grunt]

Is there any indication yet of what the short term impact of no deal Brexit will be?

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal.

“After March 2019 if there’s no deal

If the UK leaves the EU in March 2019 with no agreement in place, UK and EU licensed airlines would lose the automatic right to operate air services between the UK and the EU without seeking advance permission. This would mean that airlines operating between the UK and the EU would need to seek individual permissions to operate. EU-licensed airlines would lose the ability to operate wholly within the UK (for example from Heathrow to Edinburgh) and UK-licensed airlines would lose the ability to operate intra-EU air services (for example from Milan to Paris).”


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[Jack Hackett]

Is there any indication yet of what the short term impact of no deal Brexit will be?

I've heard stories about stockpiling medicine, supermarkets running out of food, the army being drafted on to the streets to help with transportation of certain goods and other fairly worrying possibilities. I'm guessing that these are scare stories that have been greatly exaggerated?

I have absolutely no doubt that there will be chaos. No-one is prepared for what could happen, as the tories have been too busy arguing amongst themselves about what they want to happen. We are where we are because of ignorance... there's no arguing that a very large percentage of the leavers are totally ignorant of, not to mention incapable of understanding, the consequences of their 'victory'. Their 'Will of the people' mantra is becoming more desperate every time the question of another ref is raised.

I didn't actually vote as I was away on holiday. Like many others, I felt safe that the vote was won, and didn't bother giving my proxy to someone to vote on my behalf. I feel strongly that another referendum would have a much higher turnout... and a much different result.

[Fife-Hibee]

I have absolutely no doubt that there will be chaos. No-one is prepared for what could happen, as the tories have been too busy arguing amongst themselves about what they want to happen. We are where we are because of ignorance... there's no arguing that a very large percentage of the leavers are totally ignorant of, not to mention incapable of understanding, the consequences of their 'victory'. Their 'Will of the people' mantra is becoming more desperate every time the question of another ref is raised.

I didn't actually vote as I was away on holiday. Like many others, I felt safe that the vote was won, and didn't bother giving my proxy to someone to vote on my behalf. I feel strongly that another referendum would have a much higher turnout... and a much different result.

Same could be said about that other referendum. But just like that other referendum, they will down right refuse to allow people to change their minds. Because lets face it, this is the exact outcome the Conservative Party wanted. They don't care if the majority don't want it.

[beensaidbefore]

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal.

“After March 2019 if there’s no deal

If the UK leaves the EU in March 2019 with no agreement in place, UK and EU licensed airlines would lose the automatic right to operate air services between the UK and the EU without seeking advance permission. This would mean that airlines operating between the UK and the EU would need to seek individual permissions to operate. EU-licensed airlines would lose the ability to operate wholly within the UK (for example from Heathrow to Edinburgh) and UK-licensed airlines would lose the ability to operate intra-EU air services (for example from Milan to Paris).”


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Time to get that sorted then I hope.

[Colr]

Anyone going to the Poeple Vote rally on 20th Oct?

[SuperAllyMcleod]

Same could be said about that other referendum. But just like that other referendum, they will down right refuse to allow people to change their minds. Because lets face it, this is the exact outcome the Conservative Party wanted. They don't care if the majority don't want it.

The difference between the Indy Ref and Brexit is that the winners knew exactly what they were voting for and have got just that.

The Leave voters had so many different visions of what they wanted. The chances of at least some of them saying " you know what, if that's what we are actually going to get, then I'd rather stay in" are very high.

Therefore, a second vote is the only way to sort it.

[JeMeSouviens]

I was and am still strongly Remain/Yes. However, I see the overriding priority as reversing Brexit or at least making it as soft as possible for the whole UK. For several reasons:

1. I believe it's fundamentally the best thing for England/Wales/NI as well as us to be in the single market/CU.
2. Economically, there is some long term opportunity for an EU member iScotland to compete favourably against a Brexit UK for investment/jobs. However, especially in the short term, it makes the transition to independence much scarier to be economically divorced from England as well as politically. Get the whole UK back to sanity and then reappraise the case for independence from there.
3. Politically I'm not altogether convinced by the poll boost Yes gets from Brexit. If you delve into the numbers, it looks like what actually happens is that a chunk of voters move from No to DK. Thus the excluding DKs figures look like Yes had a boost but actually it's just that No has taken a hit. I'm not sure that when push came to shove, those DKs won't slide back towards No again.
4. The UK is unravelling anyway. Tam Dalyell's "motorway with no exits" was bang on the money and the Brexit shenanigans have given things another little kick in the right direction even if they ultimately come to nothing. I'd rather wait a few years and take a smoother path.

Having said all that, if a hard Brexit does go ahead, I think it's absolutely imperative for the long term that Scotland gets TFO of the UK and back into the EU. Being the neglected backwater region of a Brexit Britain run by Tory idiots (and let's face it, that's what we'll get for the majority of the foreseeable) gives me the heeby jeebies. Not a smart strategy at all. It would be painful but necessary if we want Scotland to be anything for the future.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

I was and am still strongly Remain/Yes. However, I see the overriding priority as reversing Brexit or at least making it as soft as possible for the whole UK. For several reasons:

1. I believe it's fundamentally the best thing for England/Wales/NI as well as us to be in the single market/CU.
2. Economically, there is some long term opportunity for an EU member iScotland to compete favourably against a Brexit UK for investment/jobs. However, especially in the short term, it makes the transition to independence much scarier to be economically divorced from England as well as politically. Get the whole UK back to sanity and then reappraise the case for independence from there.
3. Politically I'm not altogether convinced by the poll boost Yes gets from Brexit. If you delve into the numbers, it looks like what actually happens is that a chunk of voters move from No to DK. Thus the excluding DKs figures look like Yes had a boost but actually it's just that No has taken a hit. I'm not sure that when push came to shove, those DKs won't slide back towards No again.
4. The UK is unravelling anyway. Tam Dalyell's "motorway with no exits" was bang on the money and the Brexit shenanigans have given things another little kick in the right direction even if they ultimately come to nothing. I'd rather wait a few years and take a smoother path.

Having said all that, if a hard Brexit does go ahead, I think it's absolutely imperative for the long term that Scotland gets TFO of the UK and back into the EU. Being the neglected backwater region of a Brexit Britain run by Tory idiots (and let's face it, that's what we'll get for the majority of the foreseeable) gives me the heeby jeebies. Not a smart strategy at all. It would be painful but necessary if we want Scotland to be anything for the future.

I like your posts JMS, and i find this one hard to disagree with.

[JeMeSouviens]

I like your posts JMS, and i find this one hard to disagree with.

Why, thank you.

[Bangkok Hibby]

I was and am still strongly Remain/Yes. However, I see the overriding priority as reversing Brexit or at least making it as soft as possible for the whole UK. For several reasons:

1. I believe it's fundamentally the best thing for England/Wales/NI as well as us to be in the single market/CU.
2. Economically, there is some long term opportunity for an EU member iScotland to compete favourably against a Brexit UK for investment/jobs. However, especially in the short term, it makes the transition to independence much scarier to be economically divorced from England as well as politically. Get the whole UK back to sanity and then reappraise the case for independence from there.
3. Politically I'm not altogether convinced by the poll boost Yes gets from Brexit. If you delve into the numbers, it looks like what actually happens is that a chunk of voters move from No to DK. Thus the excluding DKs figures look like Yes had a boost but actually it's just that No has taken a hit. I'm not sure that when push came to shove, those DKs won't slide back towards No again.
4. The UK is unravelling anyway. Tam Dalyell's "motorway with no exits" was bang on the money and the Brexit shenanigans have given things another little kick in the right direction even if they ultimately come to nothing. I'd rather wait a few years and take a smoother path.

Having said all that, if a hard Brexit does go ahead, I think it's absolutely imperative for the long term that Scotland gets TFO of the UK and back into the EU. Being the neglected backwater region of a Brexit Britain run by Tory idiots (and let's face it, that's what we'll get for the majority of the foreseeable) gives me the heeby jeebies. Not a smart strategy at all. It would be painful but necessary if we want Scotland to be anything for the future.

This. :top marksImpossible for anyone with an ounce of common sense to argue with. Although now I'm sure they'll try!

[heretoday]

[/B]This. :top marksImpossible for anyone with an ounce of common sense to argue with. Although now I'm sure they'll try!

Well. For one thing, a Brexit Britain might deliver a Labour government pretty quick.

Also an independent Scotland will not find it easy to re-enter the EU.

[Moulin Yarns]

Well. For one thing, a Brexit Britain might deliver a Labour government pretty quick.

Also an independent Scotland will not find it easy to re-enter the EU.

Have you any evidence to back up either of these suppositions?

For example Corbyn is pro Brexit so why would anyone vote Labour for more Brexit problems?

An independent Scotland may not want to join the EU but prefer to be part of the customs union.

[IGRIGI]

I always thought EFTA would make the most sense for Scotland.

[JeMeSouviens]

Well. For one thing, a Brexit Britain might deliver a Labour government pretty quick.

Also an independent Scotland will not find it easy to re-enter the EU.

It might. But how are they not ahead when up against this current shambles?

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2018-10-16/Voting%20intention%2014-15%20Oct-01.png

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2018-10-16/Best%20Prime%20Minister%2014-15%20Oct-01.png

[heretoday]

Have you any evidence to back up either of these suppositions?

For example Corbyn is pro Brexit so why would anyone vote Labour for more Brexit problems?

An independent Scotland may not want to join the EU but prefer to be part of the customs union.

The whole thing is supposition. None of us know what's going to happen.

[JeMeSouviens]

Here's Elmar Brok, the chair of the Euro parliament's Foreign Affairs committee:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQzm0FXXerM


But, but ... Spain would veto surely?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu

[cabbageandribs1875]

i'm kinda hoping the Dancing Queen delivers a hard brexit.....i have my reasons :agree: although a 2nd vote would also be acceptable...2nd votes are the way to go, it gives voters that fell for the misinformation/scaremongering the first time around to reconsider the actions of their stupidity the first time :greengrin




but i'm quite sure she really wants a softer brexit, and has done all along

[Bangkok Hibby]

Well. For one thing, a Brexit Britain might deliver a Labour government pretty quick.

Also an independent Scotland will not find it easy to re-enter the EU.

Highly unlikely an increasingly right wing thinking populace is going to vote in a Labour government any time soon. Also you have nothing to base your second point on. As many European politicians have come out in favour of Scotland remaining/re-joining as have those against.

[TheReg!]

Highly unlikely an increasingly right wing thinking populace is going to vote in a Labour government any time soon. Also you have nothing to base your second point on. As many European politicians have come out in favour of Scotland remaining/re-joining as have those against.

The reason Labour will not win any election is because they are no longer the party of the working class.

[heretoday]

Highly unlikely an increasingly right wing thinking populace is going to vote in a Labour government any time soon. Also you have nothing to base your second point on. As many European politicians have come out in favour of Scotland remaining/re-joining as have those against.

Spain? I'm just saying. I want a positive outcome just like everyone else.

[CropleyWasGod]

Highly unlikely an increasingly right wing thinking populace is going to vote in a Labour government any time soon. Also you have nothing to base your second point on. As many European politicians have come out in favour of Scotland remaining/re-joining as have those against.Spain were always the most vocal opponent. No more, though.

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[IGRIGI]

Spain? I'm just saying. I want a positive outcome just like everyone else.

Their argument against Catalunya's independence is that it is against their constitution.

They've said they had no problem with the Scottish referendum as it wasn't against any UK constitution.

If they then voted down Scottish membership to the EU they would destroy their own argument against Catalunya's right to a referendum.

[heretoday]

Their argument against Catalunya's independence is that it is against their constitution.

They've said they had no problem with the Scottish referendum as it wasn't against any UK constitution.

If they then voted down Scottish membership to the EU they would destroy their own argument against Catalunya's right to a referendum.

Yeah. That's maybe the case now.

But...............

[Bristolhibby]

Spain? I'm just saying. I want a positive outcome just like everyone else.

If Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia can join. There is no reason why an Indy Scotland wouldn’t be fast tracked back in.

It’s nonsense to suggest otherwise. Indy Scotland could also give the same commitment that Sweden has given towards the euro (ie a vague commitment that never happens), obviously this would be Scotland’s choice to make.

J

[grunt]

Also an independent Scotland will not find it easy to re-enter the EU.

You could envisage a scenario where the EU27 might fast track Scotland’s entry in order to upset the English Brexiters.


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[Hibbyradge]

You could envisage a scenario where the EU27 might fast track Scotland’s entry in order to upset the English Brexiters.


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I doubt that serious politicians and economists would behave that childishly or do things like that out of spite.

If Scotland ever applies for EU membership, it will be considered on its own merits.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

I think Scotland would get in fairly easily, but it would take some time, and probably a formal accession process of a year or two.

The question would be if we wanted to?

The big problem woyld be potentially putting up a hard border with by far our biggest trading partner, England.

If that were to happen though, presumably there would be a demand for a big container port on Scotland's east coast.. could be really good for rosyth and replace the royal navy work?

We would presumably also require a larger hub airport... bad news for residents of west edinburgh!

[Bristolhibby]

I doubt that serious politicians and economists would behave that childishly or do things like that out of spite.

If Scotland ever applies for EU membership, it will be considered on its own merits.

You have seen wars start in the past. Spite and vengeance is quite often at the top of the list. That and money. Think how much trans national investment an Indy Scotland could get. English speaking, open for business.

J

[Bristolhibby]

I think Scotland would get in fairly easily, but it would take some time, and probably a formal accession process of a year or two.

The question would be if we wanted to?

The big problem woyld be potentially putting up a hard border with by far our biggest trading partner, England.

If that were to happen though, presumably there would be a demand for a big container port on Scotland's east coast.. could be really good for rosyth and replace the royal navy work?

We would presumably also require a larger hub airport... bad news for residents of west edinburgh!

Let’s see what happens on the Island of Ireland post March next year. Then we will have our blueprint for trading with England and Wales.

J

[HappyAsHellas]

Switzerland seems to manage ok being surrounded by eu members and being a non member themselves. But the eu can't make it work for Ireland?

[Bristolhibby]

Switzerland seems to manage ok being surrounded by eu members and being a non member themselves. But the eu can't make it work for Ireland?

Correction, the U.K. don’t want that model to work for Ireland.

IMHO the Good Friday Agreement MUST trump all this nonsense. There has been literally 100s of years of strife and death on the Island of Ireland. Peace must not ever be put in jeopardy.

It’s us that’s leaving, not the EU.

J

[HappyAsHellas]

Whilst I agree with your opinion on the peace side of things, I don't think Britain is insisting on a hard border - instead of logical thinking and solutions we have politicians being politicians which I think is where the real problem lies.

[JeMeSouviens]

Switzerland seems to manage ok being surrounded by eu members and being a non member themselves. But the eu can't make it work for Ireland?

The Swiss are in Schengen but they have a customs border. In practice that means there are border posts but cars are rarely stopped.

Ireland is a very different situation. The nationalist side of the north made peace on the basis that they could self-identify as Irish, have Irish passports, the right to live and work on either side of the border and move across it at will and have guaranteed rights as EU citizens. The last is a non-academic point given the 1921-1972 regime in NI.

[Bristolhibby]

The Swiss are in Schengen but they have a customs border. In practice that means there are border posts but cars are rarely stopped.

Ireland is a very different situation. The nationalist side of the north made peace on the basis that they could self-identify as Irish, have Irish passports, the right to live and work on either side of the border and move across it at will and have guaranteed rights as EU citizens. The last is a non-academic point given the 1921-1972 regime in NI.

This. Something which was never mentioned by remain prior to the referendum.

J

[heretoday]

I doubt that serious politicians and economists would behave that childishly or do things like that out of spite.

If Scotland ever applies for EU membership, it will be considered on its own merits.

I doubt that too although Spain might send a signal to Catalonia by objecting to our entry.

[CropleyWasGod]

I doubt that too although Spain might send a signal to Catalonia by objecting to our entry.This is their latest view on that, albeit 18 months ago.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/spain-foreign-minister-alfonso-dastis-no-veto-independent-scotland-eu-membership-application-a7662531.html%3famp

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[Hibrandenburg]

Switzerland seems to manage ok being surrounded by eu members and being a non member themselves. But the eu can't make it work for Ireland?

Switzerland abides by the EU's free movement of people principle, that makes a big difference.

[Saturday Boy]

Switzerland abides by the EU's free movement of people principle, that makes a big difference.

Sadly, that’s the whole reason for Brexit: no more free movement of people.

As a recently retired civil servant, I’m hoping that I’m not recalled to man the borders of the “taking back control” UK 😉

[goosano]

The thing that will take time is getting spending in line with convergence criteria for joining the EU..currently a deficit of 3% of GDP. It is currently 8.9% and would require austerity that makes the last 10 years seem a picnic. And that is before you add in the costs of separating from the rest of the UK, the costs of setting up our own institutions and taking into account the freezing of investment that inevitably comes with times like that as is occurring with Brexit now. I'm in favour of independence as long as it can be realistically achieved but I don’t see it now.
I think Scotland would the get in fairly easily, but it would take some time, and probably a formal accession process of a year or two.

The question would be if we wanted to?

The big problem woyld be potentially putting up a hard border with by far our biggest trading partner, England.

If that were to happen though, presumably there would be a demand for a big container port on Scotland's east coast.. could be really good for rosyth and replace the royal navy work?

We would presumably also require a larger hub airport... bad news for residents of west edinburgh!

[Colr]

Ordered something from New Zealand recently. Duty, tax and charges at customs added 40% to the cost!

[steakbake]

Switzerland abides by the EU's free movement of people principle, that makes a big difference.

It also has a proper customs border with the EU, meaning goods (and if required) people can be checked.

This does not solve the situation with Ireland as, if the UK is to hold to it's side on the Good Friday Agreement - an international treaty, after all - then such apparatus cannot be set up on the island of Ireland.

The alternative - a border in the Irish Sea between Great Britain and the North of Ireland is unpalatable to the DUP to whom the UK government tossed £1bn as well as other Unionists like Davidson and Mundell.

So there we go. We can either renege on an international peace treaty or we can upset a bunch of evolution denying, sash wearing, backwards goons and their allies. At the moment, the Government are expecting to find a way to welch on an international peace treaty because the other crew have them over a barrel following Theresa's 'second vote' in 2017.

[Bristolhibby]

It also has a proper customs border with the EU, meaning goods (and if required) people can be checked.

This does not solve the situation with Ireland as, if the UK is to hold to it's side on the Good Friday Agreement - an international treaty, after all - then such apparatus cannot be set up on the island of Ireland.

The alternative - a border in the Irish Sea between Great Britain and the North of Ireland is unpalatable to the DUP to whom the UK government tossed £1bn as well as other Unionists like Davidson and Mundell.

So there we go. We can either renege on an international peace treaty or we can upset a bunch of evolution denying, sash wearing, backwards goons and their allies. At the moment, the Government are expecting to find a way to welch on an international peace treaty because the other crew have them over a barrel following Theresa's 'second vote' in 2017.

Or the Tories get enough votes from Labour to shaft the DUP (rightly so) and chuck the border up in the Irish Sea.

J

[JeMeSouviens]

The thing that will take time is getting spending in line with convergence criteria for joining the EU..currently a deficit of 3% of GDP. It is currently 8.9% and would require austerity that makes the last 10 years seem a picnic. And that is before you add in the costs of separating from the rest of the UK, the costs of setting up our own institutions and taking into account the freezing of investment that inevitably comes with times like that as is occurring with Brexit now. I'm in favour of independence as long as it can be realistically achieved but I don’t see it now.

The 3% figure is for joining the eurozone rather than the EU.