PDA

View Full Version : Hibs' traditional 2nd half of season slump



Diclonius
03-03-2018, 01:43 PM
As we recall from a few years ago, in our "top six" seasons (i.e. seasons where we performed well) we've always started exceptionally well and then spectacularly ran out of steam near the end. I decided to test this theory out by comparing the first and last nineteen fixtures of all our last 10 Premiership seasons:

2013-14: 1.26 / 0.58 (11th)
2012-13: 1.47 / 1.21 (7th)
2011-12: 0.74 / 1.00 (11th)
2010-11: 0.84 / 1.11 (10th)
2009-10: 1.74 / 1.11 (4th)
2008-09: 1.37 / 1.11 (6th)
2007-08: 1.47 / 1.26 (6th)
2006-07: 1.37 / 1.21 (6th)
2005-06: 1.95 / 1.00 (4th)
2004-05: 1.74 / 1.47 (3rd)

As you'll see, in almost every season we had a lower average number of points in the last 19 fixtures, bar some bottom 3 seasons when we were fighting relegation. Every single top six finish has resulted in a lower points tally in the second half of the season - most barring 04-05 are comparable to bottom six tallies.

I feel a real test of Lennon's capability as manager is if he was to buck this trend. We're almost certain to finish top six this season, so if he improves on our tally and takes us into/maintains a European spot (Scottish Cup winner permitting) I think he'll have done exceptionally well. This is another mentality problem we've had for years. So far, our averages are:

2017-18: 1.58 / 2.00

That's an exceptional tally - our first half points tally is the highest since 09-10 and after nine games in the second half we have averaged 2 points per game - and this is after playing every other team in the top six. We still have to play all of them again (and Hearts probably twice) but barring a massive slump we're looking on course to do very well.

Pedantic_Hibee
03-03-2018, 01:45 PM
Great stats. Lennon undoubtedly the catalyst.

Leith Green
03-03-2018, 02:00 PM
Worth remembering that in the seasons we finished top 6 our final 5 matches are against other teams in the top six. That on paper means that 27 per cent more of the last 19 games are played against top six sides as opposed to finishing bottom 6 and playing more games against poorer opposition.Quite a significant difference to take into account when comparing half seasons

Is It On....
04-03-2018, 07:57 AM
Worth remembering that in the seasons we finished top 6 our final 5 matches are against other teams in the top six. That on paper means that 27 per cent more of the last 19 games are played against top six sides as opposed to finishing bottom 6 and playing more games against poorer opposition.Quite a significant difference to take into account when comparing half seasons

Makes you realise even more just how awful The Butcher stats are as his last 5 games are bottom 6 😪

jacomo
04-03-2018, 10:59 AM
The run we’ve just been on has been exceptional, Scottish Cup tie excepted (and that was a tight game).

Given the number of points we dropped early in the season, I hoped this would be a traditional Hibs campaign in reverse. So far, so good.

gillythehibby
04-03-2018, 05:04 PM
It's been cancelled this season 👍🇳🇬

IGRIGI
04-03-2018, 05:13 PM
I remember the season under Mowbray when we finished 3rd we went into the split with a 5 point cushion over the sheepcand got 3rd by a goal.

Under Lennon given our performances against the other big teams I'm confident we'll finish above them come the end of the season.

Joe6-2
04-03-2018, 05:14 PM
We haven’t had Neil Lennon before!

hhibs
04-03-2018, 05:41 PM
We haven’t had Neil Lennon before!




Indeed,lets see if he can continue and break the mold.

The second half season slump is an old ,very bad habit which will be great to see ripped up .

heretoday
05-03-2018, 05:34 AM
Keep going and finish with a flourish.
It applies to football too.

highland hibbee
05-03-2018, 08:54 AM
Indeed,lets see if he can continue and break the mold.

The second half season slump is an old ,very bad habit which will be great to see ripped up .


From my memory of supporting Hibs, which is over 50 years, this has always been our way. Probably part of the reason our Scottish Cup history is so appalling.

hibbyfraelibby
05-03-2018, 10:50 AM
From my memory of supporting Hibs, which is over 50 years, this has always been our way. Probably part of the reason our Scottish Cup history is so appalling.

...WAS so appaling

1van Sprou7e
22-04-2018, 12:38 PM
As we recall from a few years ago, in our "top six" seasons (i.e. seasons where we performed well) we've always started exceptionally well and then spectacularly ran out of steam near the end. I decided to test this theory out by comparing the first and last nineteen fixtures of all our last 10 Premiership seasons:

2013-14: 1.26 / 0.58 (11th)
2012-13: 1.47 / 1.21 (7th)
2011-12: 0.74 / 1.00 (11th)
2010-11: 0.84 / 1.11 (10th)
2009-10: 1.74 / 1.11 (4th)
2008-09: 1.37 / 1.11 (6th)
2007-08: 1.47 / 1.26 (6th)
2006-07: 1.37 / 1.21 (6th)
2005-06: 1.95 / 1.00 (4th)
2004-05: 1.74 / 1.47 (3rd)

As you'll see, in almost every season we had a lower average number of points in the last 19 fixtures, bar some bottom 3 seasons when we were fighting relegation. Every single top six finish has resulted in a lower points tally in the second half of the season - most barring 04-05 are comparable to bottom six tallies.

I feel a real test of Lennon's capability as manager is if he was to buck this trend. We're almost certain to finish top six this season, so if he improves on our tally and takes us into/maintains a European spot (Scottish Cup winner permitting) I think he'll have done exceptionally well. This is another mentality problem we've had for years. So far, our averages are:

2017-18: 1.58 / 2.00

That's an exceptional tally - our first half points tally is the highest since 09-10 and after nine games in the second half we have averaged 2 points per game - and this is after playing every other team in the top six. We still have to play all of them again (and Hearts probably twice) but barring a massive slump we're looking on course to do very well.

4 tough games coming up but our average since the turn of the year is now 2.25

Truly incredible firm we have been in this year

jacomo
22-04-2018, 01:11 PM
...WAS so appaling


Our overall record in the Scottish Cup is still poor.

Three wins in our entire history.

Wakeyhibee
22-04-2018, 01:28 PM
As we recall from a few years ago, in our "top six" seasons (i.e. seasons where we performed well) we've always started exceptionally well and then spectacularly ran out of steam near the end. I decided to test this theory out by comparing the first and last nineteen fixtures of all our last 10 Premiership seasons:

2013-14: 1.26 / 0.58 (11th)
2012-13: 1.47 / 1.21 (7th)
2011-12: 0.74 / 1.00 (11th)
2010-11: 0.84 / 1.11 (10th)
2009-10: 1.74 / 1.11 (4th)
2008-09: 1.37 / 1.11 (6th)
2007-08: 1.47 / 1.26 (6th)
2006-07: 1.37 / 1.21 (6th)
2005-06: 1.95 / 1.00 (4th)
2004-05: 1.74 / 1.47 (3rd)

As you'll see, in almost every season we had a lower average number of points in the last 19 fixtures, bar some bottom 3 seasons when we were fighting relegation. Every single top six finish has resulted in a lower points tally in the second half of the season - most barring 04-05 are comparable to bottom six tallies.

I feel a real test of Lennon's capability as manager is if he was to buck this trend. We're almost certain to finish top six this season, so if he improves on our tally and takes us into/maintains a European spot (Scottish Cup winner permitting) I think he'll have done exceptionally well. This is another mentality problem we've had for years. So far, our averages are:

2017-18: 1.58 / 2.00

That's an exceptional tally - our first half points tally is the highest since 09-10 and after nine games in the second half we have averaged 2 points per game - and this is after playing every other team in the top six. We still have to play all of them again (and Hearts probably twice) but barring a massive slump we're looking on course to do very well.
I always used to put it down to strength in depth. Even with a decent 1st 11. Once suspensions and injuries take their toll it reflected in the results. Not only have we had a decent first 11 this time out we have players on the bench how can step up to the mark as well. We've also replaced our strike force completely without any bedding in issues, so NL and his recruitment team take a lot of credit.
It's been a very good season

007
22-04-2018, 09:25 PM
Our overall record in the Scottish Cup is still poor.

Three wins in our entire history.

We will improve it by winning it again next season. We were the last team other than Celtic to win a trophy and we will also be the team to end their run of trophy wins.

Pagan Hibernia
22-04-2018, 09:33 PM
We will improve it by winning it again next season. We were the last team other than Celtic to win a trophy and we will also be the team to end their run of trophy wins.

I have a feeling Motherwell could do it this season. Just to spite us :rolleyes:

Borderhibbie76
23-04-2018, 02:46 PM
I have a feeling Motherwell could do it this season. Just to spite us :rolleyes:Honestly cannot See it

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

Smartie
23-04-2018, 03:05 PM
I remember speaking to a taxi driver years ago, who was of the opinion that once we got the Scottish Cup monkey off our back then as a club we'd shift up a level, but until then we'd continue to struggle.

To be fair to him, thats how it feels. We've had all these hang-ups before - Hibsing it, the second half of the season collapse, the poor derby record etc etc.

It does feel like we've got a new lease of life and that we've banished a few demons along the way.

Famous Fiver
23-04-2018, 03:38 PM
Crops driving the taxi, by any chance?

And we are watching the other lot Heartsing it.

Pleasing.

jgl07
23-04-2018, 04:25 PM
Our overall record in the Scottish Cup is still poor.

Three wins in our entire history.
It's been bloody good for the last few years. Three finals and five semi-finals in seven (?) seasons. Especially as three of those season were when in the Championship.