PDA

View Full Version : Scottish football confidence



Ozyhibby
01-01-2018, 07:03 PM
http://www.unmodernman.net/confidence-crisis/
Worth a read


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

CMurdoch
01-01-2018, 07:36 PM
A good read but badly flawed

davemcbain
01-01-2018, 07:39 PM
Good read, bit about Vlad possibly highlighted the authors loyalties, and was out of kilter with the rest of the article, but hard to disagree with most of the rest of it.

Dr What If?
02-01-2018, 01:27 AM
Can't disagree that the mentality of Scottish Football is flawed just as the article states - the OF are ultimately unbeatable, but there is so much more to it. The crushing blow of ITV digital, 10k stadia directive, a new SPL that gave over 60% of revenues to the top 2 placed teams....in some respects we are lucky to still have a professional league up here.
The article is also right in pointing to the amount of media coverage the OF get, effective free advertising and results in places with decent populations like Paisley being full of OF fans - St Mirren's average attendance is less than 4k, they only got 6.2k for their top of the table game against Dundee United!!!
Saying confidence in sport is big is nothing new but lets not pretend that that can close the financial gulf that our clubs face today.

NAE NOOKIE
02-01-2018, 03:30 AM
The flaw here is that he concentrates mainly on the mentality required to beat the Old firm in their own back yard .... yes you can mentally prepare a team to do that, I'm sure Neil Lennon could persuade our players that they are every bit as good as certainly The Rangers are and could convince them that we are capable of winning at Parkhead.

What mentality doesn't prepare you for is a threadbare squad getting through a 38 game season or being forced to sell your best players well before you have any chance of moulding them into a team capable of challenging for the league. Without looking it up I'm willing to bet Ferguson was able to keep the nucleus of that Aberdeen team together for more than two seasons and the Dundee Utd team that did so well held on to players who these days would have been long gone after less than two seasons ..... I mean Dave Narey, Paul Sturrock, these days both would have been snapped up by bloody Wigan or QPR etc before they had a chance to make a dent.

Look at Hibs .... Jason Cummings barely kicked a ball for us outside of the second tier of Scottish football and he was gone and now John McGinn is on borrowed time after half a season in the top league.

Look at every league around Europe .... yes its true they aren't dominated decade after decade by two teams like Scotland, or one as it is here nowadays. But lets not pretend that attitude is anything but a peripheral factor, money counts for everything and the proof is there in the stats. Look at the last 10 seasons in Europe's big leagues:

The English league ....... 4 different winners in the last 10 seasons, but only Leicester have bucked the money theory in that time.

The Italian league ..... 3 different winners and not one of them a plucky trier, with Juventus winning the last 6.

The Spanish league ..... 3 different winners, with only Atletico Madrid who can hardly be considered a minnow busting the Real / Barca duopoly and even then nearly bringing the club to financial ruin doing it.

The German league ..... 3 different winners with only Wolfsburg backed by multi national behemoth Volkswagen splitting Dortmund and Bayern who have won the last 5 in a row.

The Dutch league .... 5 different winners, which isn't too bad, but even then in the last 10 seasons only two clubs have bust the Ajax, Feyenoord, PSV same old same old of Netherlands football.

The French league ..... 7 different winners in 10 seasons which on the face of it is very good, until you realise that 4 of the last 5 seasons it was won by PSG with Monaco backed by a billionaire winning it last year and guess who is top by 9 points at the moment, yes PSG with Monaco 2nd after having their title winning team pillaged by Europe's big boys.

If you add that up it comes to a total of 60 seasons of football and in all that time only a few times could it be said that money wasn't the number one factor when it came to who won a season. Even in the only league where unfancied teams came out on top quite a lot, IE France, that trend was stopped dead in its tracks as soon as big money was poured into Monaco and especially PSG.

When it comes to this subject it could be argued that nowhere in Europe is the financial gulf more of a factor than it is in Scotland ...... If a club can afford to spend an average of 5 to 10 million pounds on its players it will still be able to put a team on the park that will be competitive with a club spending an average of 30 million. But when a club can spend between one and five million on players compared to clubs where a spend of £200,000 would raise eyebrows that's a whole different ball game.
In Scotland its not even the disparity in the transfer kitty between Celtic and to a lesser extent Sevco that's the problem, its what they can afford in wages ... when you look at the average that Celtic and the next biggest Sevco are paying compared to the rest the gulf is absolutely enormous and no amount of psychology or pep talks can go far enough to stop that being the main factor in who wins what over the course of a 38 game marathon.

I like the article's authors sentiment and I agree with a lot of what he has to say regarding the media and the utter failure of the SFA / SPFL to talk up our game. But I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that the likes of Ferguson or McLean would have just as much of a struggle in the modern era as Lennon, McInnes, Levin or Wright have trying to make a dent in Celtic's dominance.

-Jonesy-
02-01-2018, 10:07 AM
I know it would be hugely unpopular, especially with the ugly sisters as well as creating a different playing field than the rest of Europe but the American sporting system is bang on for a national level. Equal proceeds of any officially licensed merchandise split between all teams, salary caps and the collegic draft system of poorest performance leading to first picks keeps everything competitive. Also means when a team can dominate for even a few years in a row it's a genuine sporting achievement. That's the benefit of not having the entire sporting system rooted in the old association setup and "tradition".

calumhibee1
02-01-2018, 10:28 AM
I know it would be hugely unpopular, especially with the ugly sisters as well as creating a different playing field than the rest of Europe but the American sporting system is bang on for a national level. Equal proceeds of any officially licensed merchandise split between all teams, salary caps and the collegic draft system of poorest performance leading to first picks keeps everything competitive. Also means when a team can dominate for even a few years in a row it's a genuine sporting achievement. That's the benefit of not having the entire sporting system rooted in the old association setup and "tradition".

As much as I agree that it would make things competitive I wouldn’t fancy a set up like theirs. Potentially all youth team players becoming free agents at under 20 stage and a draft in the same mould as America would be interesting but financially I wouldn’t want to see everything split evenly. More evenly, definitely, totally evenly, not for me.

Eyrie
02-01-2018, 10:39 AM
I know it would be hugely unpopular, especially with the ugly sisters as well as creating a different playing field than the rest of Europe but the American sporting system is bang on for a national level. Equal proceeds of any officially licensed merchandise split between all teams, salary caps and the collegic draft system of poorest performance leading to first picks keeps everything competitive. Also means when a team can dominate for even a few years in a row it's a genuine sporting achievement. That's the benefit of not having the entire sporting system rooted in the old association setup and "tradition".

The main reason that wouldn't work is that American sport is largely confined to America. The top prospects in the NFL draft have to go to Cleveland when selected because there isn't another league to play in, but a bright prospect in Scottish football could simply sign for an English club or even go abroad if they didn't like the team that drafted them. There can still be dominant teams (60s Packers, 70s Steelers, 80s 49ers or the current Patriots) but such dominance doesn't last for decades like that of the Ugly Sisters in our country.

Nakedmanoncrack
02-01-2018, 12:31 PM
A good read but badly flawed

Very badly flawed and not even accurate, " unprecedented era of democratization - of the 24 domestic trophies contested during Ferguson’s tenure, half were won by “provincial” clubs." Well the last 9 Scottish Cups have been won by 7 different teams, same is true of the League Cup, 6 different winners in 9 years. Yes only 2 teams have won the league in that time but the cups have been spread out much wider than in the 8 years referred to when only 2 "provincial" teams won anything. By comparison on the last 9 years 9 "provincial" teams have tasted success, with 11 different winners of the major honours.

IGRIGI
02-01-2018, 12:32 PM
I'd give up watching if there was a draft system.

jacomo
02-01-2018, 01:42 PM
People were right to see Romanov as a fantasist - he was.

Even legendary basket case Dundee FC turned down his investment (as did Dunfermline) before he bought Hearts.

Catching the OF is a huge challenge but not insurmountable - Aberdeen exploited the absence of Rangers well, although arguably they lack the self-belief required in the big games.

CMurdoch
02-01-2018, 03:15 PM
What mentality doesn't prepare you for is a threadbare squad getting through a 38 game season or being forced to sell your best players well before you have any chance of moulding them into a team capable of challenging for the league. Without looking it up I'm willing to bet Ferguson was able to keep the nucleus of that Aberdeen team together for more than two seasons and the Dundee Utd team that did so well held on to players who these days would have been long gone after less than two seasons ..... I mean Dave Narey, Paul Sturrock, these days both would have been snapped up by bloody Wigan or QPR etc before they had a chance to make a dent.

Look at Hibs .... Jason Cummings barely kicked a ball for us outside of the second tier of Scottish football and he was gone and now John McGinn is on borrowed time after half a season in the top league.

I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that the likes of Ferguson or McLean would have just as much of a struggle in the modern era as Lennon, McInnes, Levin or Wright have trying to make a dent in Celtic's dominance.

The above part of your post explains the real issues.

When Ferguson and McLean did their thing with Aberdeen & Dundee Utd they could tie players to their club on ridiculously long contracts. This allowed them to build formidable teams. God himself couldn't win the league from Celtic now.

The issue for teams like Hibs is that as soon as a player or players show any ability they are purchased by tin pot, cash rich English Championship teams.
Importantly this is aggravated by the same tin pot teams stealing the good players from smaller Scottish teams so we can't even sign quality replacements.
Years ago if we had sold Cummings we would have signed Moult or Liam Boyce but now we are blown out the water by the likes of Burton Albion.
Nothing will improve unless we have a decent TV deal. Only then will we be able to financially out muscle these little English teams who perform to less than 15,000 spectators.

Teams like St Mirren have suffered even more than us. In the last 3 years they have had McGinn, Mallen, Kyle McAllister, Jason Naismith, Kenny McLean and soon to be Morgan stolen off them for buttons. What a midfield they could have had. instead they continue to struggle away in the 2nd tier.

In conclusion no amount of positive thinking is going to take the title from Celtic as things stand.

hibbyfraelibby
02-01-2018, 04:55 PM
I know it would be hugely unpopular, especially with the ugly sisters as well as creating a different playing field than the rest of Europe but the American sporting system is bang on for a national level. Equal proceeds of any officially licensed merchandise split between all teams, salary caps and the collegic draft system of poorest performance leading to first picks keeps everything competitive. Also means when a team can dominate for even a few years in a row it's a genuine sporting achievement. That's the benefit of not having the entire sporting system rooted in the old association setup and "tradition".

Most of what they do in US would not work under European or indeed UK law, however some things could be adapted.

I the NFL you are only allowed to register a maximum number of players, 45 I think with a max of 5 players on Injured reserve. Maybe we could adopt a 23 player squad max for the SPFL. This negates financial advantage allowing you to build huge depth and buying up all the decent opposition. You can still have your development squad but not so age restricted and say a 3 man injured reserve.

Personally I feel our league began to suffer not from the financial imbalances the Sky money brought but from the introduction of the 3pt win rule as it exacerbates the difference between the rich and the poor.

I would replace this with 5pts for a win but have all games that finish level go to a shoot out.
A no score draw gets you a point win the shoot out get a bonus point. A score draw gets you two point and the winner also gets a bonus point.

This would change the relative value of a draw from a third to 40% and 60% value of an outright win .

Its rediculous that a team can go 3 games unbeaten and get only 3 points whereas a team that wins one and loses two gets the same for arguably poorer form.

This would help reduce the perception of our league as being one sided and imbalanced and improve competetiveness. No score draws are nor rewarded and teams would seek to score to ensure 2pts.

mjhibby
02-01-2018, 07:30 PM
The above part of your post explains the real issues.

When Ferguson and McLean did their thing with Aberdeen & Dundee Utd they could tie players to their club on ridiculously long contracts. This allowed them to build formidable teams. God himself couldn't win the league from Celtic now.

The issue for teams like Hibs is that as soon as a player or players show any ability they are purchased by tin pot, cash rich English Championship teams.
Importantly this is aggravated by the same tin pot teams stealing the good players from smaller Scottish teams so we can't even sign quality replacements.
Years ago if we had sold Cummings we would have signed Moult or Liam Boyce but now we are blown out the water by the likes of Burton Albion.
Nothing will improve unless we have a decent TV deal. Only then will we be able to financially out muscle these little English teams who perform to less than 15,000 spectators.

Teams like St Mirren have suffered even more than us. In the last 3 years they have had McGinn, Mallen, Kyle McAllister, Jason Naismith, Kenny McLean and soon to be Morgan stolen off them for buttons. What a midfield they could have had. instead they continue to struggle away in the 2nd tier.

In conclusion no amount of positive thinking is going to take the title from Celtic as things stand.

All about money. The same thing is happening in other sports. Rugby Union, rugby league and even worse in horse racing where a few big owners win all the big prizes. In fergies time the financial gap wasn't so big plus the dons players were on big win bonuses. Unless either hibs, hertz or the dons have an injection of tens of millions of pounds then the status quo will continue. A Leicester fairytale could happen once in a while but celtic will have to really underperform and the challenging team will have to just peak at the right time and be very lucky with injuries. It's just the way it is as Bruce hornsby said.