Scottish Cup Draw - Hearts v Hibs

[Bostonhibby]

Did you watch the draw live? If so, how did they fix it?Can't see it being a fix, when there's an ordinary draw they always manage some sort of cock up or blootered celebrity going off script so can you imagine the balloons that run the sfa trying to actually fiddle something properly?

FFS they sent all the cops to ibrox for a non existent party and couldn't keep a few exuberant hibbies off the pitch at Hampden.

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[hibbysam]

All 3 years have been in the 4th round. Its just the last 2 years we've started a round earlier.

No, they haven’t. We have started in round 4 every year, the last two years we have played them in round 5. The only difference is that they used to have round 4 in December, we now have it in January due to the extended preliminaries.

[easty]

I don’t think it’s fixed either but these types of questions are so *****. I don’t know how the ESA managed to land a probe on a moving comet but it doesn’t mean it didn’t happen

If it was a fix they’d hardly make it obvious for any average joe watching the telly to notice would they?

It was Doddie Weir, Colin Cameron and the SFA...not rocket scientists! :greengrin

[Mikey]

It was Doddie Weir, Colin Cameron and the SFA...not rocket scientists! :greengrin

Aye, Colin Cameron the Jambo was told that he had to fix it so that Hearts would play Hibs.

He'd be up for that right enough!

[renato]

FFS they sent all the cops to ibrox for a non existent party and couldn't keep a few exuberant hibbies AND HEROIC WEST OF SCOTLAND SUPPORTERS off the pitch at Hampden.

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Fixed that for you :greengrin

[HFCdeb]

Can't wait! Two derbies at their dump in the space of a month - buzzing.

[ajf]

When do the half away season tickets go on sale :cb

[Seveno]

There were 32 teams in the draw so it was 1 in 31 that we would get Hearts. What happened in the past does not affect those odds.

[Hibbyradge]

It was Doddie Weir, Colin Cameron and the SFA...not rocket scientists! :greengrin

Magicians, the pair of them. :agree:

And we now know that they're both dishonest too. :agree:

The reason that the SFA, an organisation of which Petrie and Budge are an important part, wanted that fixture in the first round still eludes me, but it's as obvious as the nose on your face that it was fixed.

https://s18.postimg.org/5hhgyutex/kroqr.jpg

[CropleyWasGod]

There were 32 teams in the draw so it was 1 in 31 that we would get Hearts. What happened in the past does not affect those odds.

That's correct.

I think the poster was asking the odds of us being paired together 3 years in a row. I wasn't great at statistics, but think that would be (if it was the round of 32 every time, which I'm not sure it was) 31 x 31 x 31. 1 in 29,791. :greengrin

Edit, I've just noticed he asked about the home/away thing being the same. I'll pass on that. :rolleyes:

[Bostonhibby]

Fixed that for you :greengrin[emoji23]

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[scoopyboy]

All 3 years have been in the 4th round. Its just the last 2 years we've started a round earlier.

No it's no.

In 2016 we played Raith before playing Hearts.

In 2017 we played Bonnyrigg before playing Hearts.

This is the first year out of three we have them in our first game.

[Nicho87]

Had a quick look over the road as well. you would think it was them unbeaten in 8. amazing what a ****ty unfinished stand does for your confidence. don't even want to win at Tynie, take the draw to make them suffer sunshine on Leith again :)

[CallumLaidlaw]

No it's no.

In 2016 we played Raith before playing Hearts.

In 2017 we played Bonnyrigg before playing Hearts.

This is the first year out of three we have them in our first game.

Aye, I had it in my head that we entered in the 3rd round he last 2 years due to being in championship but I was wrong


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[scoopyboy]

That's correct.

I think the poster was asking the odds of us being paired together 3 years in a row. I wasn't great at statistics, but think that would be (if it was the round of 32 every time, which I'm not sure it was) 31 x 31 x 31. 1 in 29,791. :greengrin

Edit, I've just noticed he asked about the home/away thing being the same. I'll pass on that. :rolleyes:

The last two seasons it was in the round of the last 16.

[easty]

That's correct.

I think the poster was asking the odds of us being paired together 3 years in a row. I wasn't great at statistics, but think that would be (if it was the round of 32 every time, which I'm not sure it was) 31 x 31 x 31. 1 in 29,791. :greengrin

Edit, I've just noticed he asked about the home/away thing being the same. I'll pass on that. :rolleyes:

Slimmer than that CWG, last season the odds were only 1 in 15 we'd get Hearts, same the year before.

31 x 15 x 15. 1 in 6975

[CropleyWasGod]

Slimmer than that CWG, last season the odds were only 1 in 15 we'd get Hearts, same the year before.

31 x 15 x 15. 1 in 6975

OK, ta. And then factor in the probability of us being drawn away every time. My gut says you double it, but my head says "nah, it's more complicated than that..... " :rolleyes:

[Hibbyradge]

OK, ta. And then factor in the probability of us being drawn away every time. My gut says you double it, but my head says "nah, it's more complicated than that..... " :rolleyes:

There were 63 possible team and venue possibilities this time.

In last 2, there were 31.

Therefore, the chance calculation is 63 x31x31 = 60543.

I think.

[Hibrandenburg]

If it's fixed then it's been fixed in Hibs favour. Our cup wins against them are partly responsible for the good feeling at the club right now, long may that continue.

P.S. it's not a fix, simply coincidental good fortune.

[whiskyhibby]

There were 63 possible team and venue possibilities this time.

In last 2, there were 31.

Therefore, the chance calculation is 63 x31x31 = 60543.

I think.

I would agree with that, so the likelihood of us drawing away against hearts 3 times on the trot is once in 60543 draws.........

[easty]

I would agree with that, so the likelihood of us drawing away against hearts 3 times on the trot is once in 60543 draws.........

odds of winning the lottery are higher...but still people win it...who's fixing that? and why?

[Hibbyradge]

I would agree with that, so the likelihood of us drawing away against hearts 3 times on the trot is once in 60543 draws.........

Indeed.

So, if luck was even handed, it won't happen again for another 60542 years.

[whiskyhibby]

Correct

[Jack Hackett]

It's going to be a long 2 months

[Keith_M]

I couldn't believe it when I saw the draw last night.


How come it always seem to be drawn at Tynecastle?

:confused:

[WhileTheChief..]

I would tend to look at the statistics, if the odds are say 3 billion to one then the most obvious answer is its fixed

31x31x31

[CropleyWasGod]

There were 63 possible team and venue possibilities this time.

In last 2, there were 31.

Therefore, the chance calculation is 63 x31x31 = 60543.

I think.

I think it's 62x30x30. 55,800.

A lot less than 3 billion :greengrin

[danhibees1875]

I think it's 62x30x30. 55,800.

A lot less than 3 billion :greengrin

and also what I said in post #243 :rules:


:greengrin

[Geo_1875]

I'll go for 2x63x2x31x2x31

484,344/1

What's the prize for closest?

[CropleyWasGod]

and also what I said in post #243 :rules:


:greengrin

****.. serves me right for not reading the whole thread. Could've saved myself a lot of brain cells.... :rolleyes:

[Hibbyradge]

I think it's 62x30x30. 55,800.

A lot less than 3 billion :greengrin

Yes, it is.

I realised that after I posted, but forgot to edit.

[Hibbyradge]

I'll go for 2x63x2x31x2x31

484,344/1

What's the prize for closest?

What are the 2s in your calculation? :confused:

I'm pretty sure it's 62 30 30.

[Geo_1875]

What are the 2s in your calculation? :confused:

I'm pretty sure it's 62 30 30.

Hertz have to be drawn at home each year which is a 50/50.

Then Hibs have to be drawn which is 61/1 or 31/1.

[Peevemor]

What are the 2s in your calculation? :confused:

I'm pretty sure it's 62 30 30.

Home or away I'd imagine.

Dontcha just love a probability debate? :greengrin

[MWHIBBIES]

50/50

Either happens or it doesn't

[WeeRussell]

Fixed that for you :greengrin

FIX!!!!!!!!:rolleyes:

[Geo_1875]

50/50

Either happens or it doesn't

Still doubles your stake if your gambling.

[SRHibs]

Should each draw not just be looked at independently? Either way, it’s just a coincidence. The chance of a coin-flip being heads is always (just under) 50/50, regardless of how many heads have come prior.

[SanFranHibs]

Great tie. It's just a shame it couldn't be played at a bigger venue.

I call their stadium the 'Minimum Wage' stadium. Doesn't get 20k.

[Peevemor]

Should each draw not just be looked at independently? Either way, it’s just a coincidence. The chance of a coin-flip being heads is always (just under) 50/50, regardless of how many heads have come prior.

In isolation yes, but the probability of 3 heads in a row is much less than 50/50.

[danhibees1875]

Hertz have to be drawn at home each year which is a 50/50.

Then Hibs have to be drawn which is 61/1 or 31/1.

These weren't draws with 62 and 32 teams though, it was 32 and 16 - those numbers have already had the 2 multiplier.

2*31*2*15*2*15 = 55800

Either way, it's unlikely but it happened and it wasn't a fix (probably).

[CropleyWasGod]

Hertz have to be drawn at home each year which is a 50/50.

Then Hibs have to be drawn which is 61/1 or 31/1.

Nahhh.....:greengrin

In a 64 team round, we can have either ( one of 31) teams at home, or (one of 31) teams away. So, drawing Hearts away is a 1 in 62 chance.

In a 32 team round, it's 1 in 30.

[CropleyWasGod]

In isolation yes, but the probability of 3 heads in a row is much less than 50/50.

2x2x2 :agree:

[SRHibs]

In isolation yes, but the probability of 3 heads in a row is much less than 50/50.

But is it not correct to look at them in isolation - after the fact anyway? I’ve seen black spin in 13+ times in a row on a roulette table. Happens.

[Hibbyradge]

Nahhh.....:greengrin

In a 64 team round, we can have either ( one of 31) teams at home, or (one of 31) teams away. So, drawing Hearts away is a 1 in 62 chance.

In a 32 team round, it's 1 in 30.

You're correct except your 64 should read 32.

[660]

The practice draw last year also drew Hibs vs Hearts but at Easter Road (I think).

[Hibbyradge]

But is it not correct to look at them in isolation - after the fact anyway? I’ve seen black spin in 13+ times in a row on a roulette table. Happens.

How often do you see the same number in a row? Now and again, but not often.

And in the SC draw, there were 62, 31, and 31 possibilities.

[Peevemor]

But is it not correct to look at them in isolation - after the fact anyway? I’ve seen black spin in 13+ times in a row on a roulette table. Happens.

What purpose does probability serve after the fact?

You're right in saying that, for any given coin toss, what's gone before is irrelevant (or almost, because 10 heads in a row would suggest a quirky coin), but speculation on the probability of future events has to study the events as a whole and not individually.

[Cardinal Hibernian]

I think it's 62x30x30. 55,800.

A lot less than 3 billion :greengrinThis indeed is the correct answer - one in 55 800.

Working out is:-

(1/2) x (1/15) x (1/2) x (1/15) x (1/31) = 1 / 55 800

The half is required to set the home team each year and the '1 in 15' etc is the probability of the away team being picked.

The general formula is:-

(1/2)^k × (1/(n1 - 1)) x (1/(n2 -1)) x (1/n3 -1)) x ..... x (1/(nk-1))

where k is the number of years and n1, n2, n3 ..., nk is the number of teams left in at each round in a given year.

Who said mathematics / statistics was boring.






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[hibbycraig]

I need a lie down after this one.

[CropleyWasGod]

You're correct except your 64 should read 32.

**** aye :greengrin

[Hibbyradge]

But is it not correct to look at them in isolation - after the fact anyway? I’ve seen black spin in 13+ times in a row on a roulette table. Happens.

Your roulette analogy helps prove the argument, actually.

Am I right in saying that betting on a particular number gets you 35/1 return? (Ignore the inbuilt advantage for the house because the real odds are 37/1.)

Ok, so you bet £1 on number 7 and it comes in, you get paid £35.

If you let your bet run, you'd get £35 x 35 and it comes in for a second time. That return £1225.

You let it run and if it comes in, bingo, £42875.

That's not even accurate cos of the stakes etc but it does show how the odds of it happening are calculated.

[Liberal Hibby]

Your roulette analogy helps prove the argument, actually.

Am I right in saying that betting on a particular number gets you 35/1 return? (Ignore the inbuilt advantage for the house because the real odds are 37/1.)

Ok, so you bet £1 on number 7 and it comes in, you get paid £35.

If you let your bet run, you'd get £35 x 35 and it comes in for a second time. That return £1225.

You let it run and if it comes in, bingo, £42875.

That's not even accurate cos of the stakes etc but it does show how the odds of it happening are calculated.

And to add to that analogy if you play roulette every year for 140 odd years getting three sevens in an row isn't that odd.

[SRHibs]

Your roulette analogy helps prove the argument, actually.

Am I right in saying that betting on a particular number gets you 35/1 return? (Ignore the inbuilt advantage for the house because the real odds are 37/1.)

Ok, so you bet £1 on number 7 and it comes in, you get paid £35.

If you let your bet run, you'd get £35 x 35 and it comes in for a second time. That return £1225.

You let it run and if it comes in, bingo, £42875.

That's not even accurate cos of the stakes etc but it does show how the odds of it happening are calculated.

I understand how the multiplicative nature works. Any combination of 3 draws would’ve had the same chance of happening in terms of the probability though, which just makes it pretty futile after the fact.

I think I agree and am just a confused person. Strange, but happy, coincidence anyway.

[Geo_1875]

This indeed is the correct answer - one in 55 800.

Working out is:-

(1/2) x (1/15) x (1/2) x (1/15) x (1/31) = 1 / 55 800

The half is required to set the home team each year and the '1 in 15' etc is the probability of the away team being picked.

The general formula is:-

(1/2)^k × (1/(n1 - 1)) x (1/(n2 -1)) x (1/n3 -1)) x ..... x (1/(nk-1))

where k is the number of years and n1, n2, n3 ..., nk is the number of teams left in at each round in a given year.

Who said mathematics / statistics was boring.






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Very well explained and exactly as I understood it to be, only getting the number of teams in each draw wrong.

Except your calculation is wrong by a factor of 2.

:na na::na na::na na:

[Geo_1875]

I understand how the multiplicative nature works. Any combination of 3 draws would’ve had the same chance of happening in terms of the probability though, which just makes it pretty futile after the fact.

I think I agree and am just a confused person. Strange, but happy, coincidence anyway.

But what are the odds that a bookie would lay your bet after the fact?

[SRHibs]

But what are the odds that a bookie would lay your bet after the fact?

Yes, exactly.

[Cardinal Hibernian]

Very well explained and exactly as I understood it to be, only getting the number of teams in each draw wrong.

Except your calculation is wrong by a factor of 2.

:na na::na na::na na:Thank you - missed out the (1/2) in front of the (1/31) - apologies.

Not easy trying type into tapatalk / Hibs.net.

Possibly a case for an equation editor to be included in this discussion thread?


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[Cardinal Hibernian]

This indeed is the correct answer - one in 55 800.

Working out is:-

(1/2) x (1/15) x (1/2) x (1/15) x (1/2) x (1/31) = 1 / 55 800

The half is required to set the home team each year and the '1 in 15' etc is the probability of the away team being picked.

The general formula is:-

(1/2)^k × (1/(n1 - 1)) x (1/(n2 -1)) x (1/n3 -1)) x ..... x (1/(nk-1))

where k is the number of years and n1, n2, n3 ..., nk is the number of teams left in at each round in a given year.

Who said mathematics / statistics was boring.






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[Geo_1875]

Thank you - missed out the (1/2) in front of the (1/31) - apologies.

Not easy trying type into tapatalk / Hibs.net.

Possibly a case for an equation editor to be included in this discussion thread?


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Should just put a link to an odds checker in every "What are the chances...." post

[Sioux]

Back on track....

We really shouldn't worry about the cup tie. The goons will have 3, 4 or 5 quality players in their side before then. We will lose. They will also be up to third or fourth behind Celtic and Aberdeen, qualifying for Europe. Money is not an issue. They are better off then they've been for years. Oh, and they're back at the dung heap.

I think that's about it.

Weapons grade knob ends!

[SON OF PADDY]

I call their stadium the 'Minimum Wage' stadium. Doesn't get 20k.


Brilliant 😂
Hope you don't mind,but I'm having that.

[DickieDastardly]

If we could get to ten in a row against them that would be a fabulous achievement; any statos know when we last managed that?

[1van Sprou7e]

If we could get to ten in a row against them that would be a fabulous achievement; any statos know when we last managed that?

1974-1978, 12 games undefeated

Before the loss in 1973 we went 10 undefeated, starting in 1968 .

1 defeat in 10 years, lets hope we can match that again :greengrin