State of play in Scotland

[JeMeSouviens]

Prof Curtice on recent polling:

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-snps-electoral-dilemma-has-been-misdiagnosed

The TL;DR - drop in SNP support has been mainly due to defecting anti-EU Leave voters, but SNP support has firmed a bit since June to around 40%, still way ahead in Holyrood VI, Lab and Tory neck and neck in the mid 20s. And support for Indy pretty static at around the level of Indyref1.

[Sylar]

I don't doubt a large portion of those leaving the party was due to the anti-EU stance, but anecdotally, I know plenty of people who abandoned their support for them in the last election because they didn't want to face a second Independence referendum (even though it isn't, of course, a Westminster issue).

I would wager that right now, were a second referendum to be held tomorrow, it would fail by an even bigger margin than 2014. However, depending how the shambles that is Brexit turns out, support may jump over the next few years. I think Sturgeon has been shrewd putting it off until later, as most people are watching the Conservatives flounder horribly, to the point where we're staring down a 'no deal' scenario, with no scope for voters to get a follow-up 2nd EU referendum on that basis. As that reality unfolds, I think more people may sway toward a Yes, but I still think it'll take something cataclysmic to get over the finish line.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

I don't doubt a large portion of those leaving the party was due to the anti-EU stance, but anecdotally, I know plenty of people who abandoned their support for them in the last election because they didn't want to face a second Independence referendum (even though it isn't, of course, a Westminster issue).

I would wager that right now, were a second referendum to be held tomorrow, it would fail by an even bigger margin than 2014. However, depending how the shambles that is Brexit turns out, support may jump over the next few years. I think Sturgeon has been shrewd putting it off until later, as most people are watching the Conservatives flounder horribly, to the point where we're staring down a 'no deal' scenario, with no scope for voters to get a follow-up 2nd EU referendum on that basis. As that reality unfolds, I think more people may sway toward a Yes, but I still think it'll take something cataclysmic to get over the finish line.

Thats pretty much how i see it.

If Brexit is as big a disaster as it could be, then we have indy as a fall back option.

I disagree that sturgeon was shrewd, anything but because she was dead-set on plowing on with a new ref.

I agree its worked out well though. Its one reason i never understood the rush for a second ref so soon after the first.

[lucky]

I disagree, if Brexit is a disaster I think people will be even more cautious of splitting further apart.

In the event of a successful yes vote we'd still have to negotiate out of the UK, apply to join the EU, see the terms of that and have another referendum. This would take years. I can't see any of this happening anytime soon.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

I disagree, if Brexit is a disaster I think people will be even more cautious of splitting further apart.

In the event of a successful yes vote we'd still have to negotiate out of the UK, apply to join the EU, see the terms of that and have another referendum. This would take years. I can't see any of this happening anytime soon.

I suppose in that case its all about degree of badness.

If brexit is a disaster, the uncertainty and upheaval of indy, with the sunlit uplands of re-entry to the eu as an end point might just seem more appealing and less risky.

However is brexit is bad but not disastrous, a likely scenario imo, then the appeal of indy might still be a bridge too far.

Im glad we have the option, but my gut instinct is that brexit wont be a disaster.

[JeMeSouviens]

I suppose in that case its all about degree of badness.

If brexit is a disaster, the uncertainty and upheaval of indy, with the sunlit uplands of re-entry to the eu as an end point might just seem more appealing and less risky.

However is brexit is bad but not disastrous, a likely scenario imo, then the appeal of indy might still be a bridge too far.

Im glad we have the option, but my gut instinct is that brexit wont be a disaster.

I think Brexit will be a bit of a slow motion car crash unless we can somehow park ourselves in a long term "transition" similar to waiting for Gordon Brown's famous 5 tests for Euro convergence. I hope that happens because whatever the short term boost or not for independence, a real Brexit disaster could lump us (and the rest of the UK regardless of how we are politically attached to them) right in the ***** for decades.

[Smartie]

I suppose in that case its all about degree of badness.

If brexit is a disaster, the uncertainty and upheaval of indy, with the sunlit uplands of re-entry to the eu as an end point might just seem more appealing and less risky.

However is brexit is bad but not disastrous, a likely scenario imo, then the appeal of indy might still be a bridge too far.

Im glad we have the option, but my gut instinct is that brexit wont be a disaster.

My gut instinct is that overall it will be pretty bad, but ultimately it will be far worse for some than others.

I strongly suspect it will be worst for those who voted for it.

The globalist, capitalist liberal elites will adapt, evolve and find the opportunity.

The poor in their hick towns will struggle to live off the ever more limited scraps that are chucked their way and will have to find someone else to blame.

[Hibbyradge]

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/15658844.No_to_second_independence_referendum_peti tion_gets_four_and_a_half_times_more_support_in_Sc otland_than_Yes_campaign/

[snooky]

Thats pretty much how i see it.

If Brexit is as big a disaster as it could be, then we have indy as a fall back option.

I disagree that sturgeon was shrewd, anything but because she was dead-set on plowing on with a new ref.

I agree its worked out well though. Its one reason i never understood the rush for a second ref so soon after the first.

100%. :agree:
Choose the battles you know you will win. At this time, I'm sure there are many folk from both sides of the argument who are sick to death of referendums and the upset they cause. Whether the next independence vote is a yes or no, I sincerely home the winner gets at least 70% of the poll so there's no split in the nation. The last one has torn the country apart to some degree. Not a good thing for any side.
The same is happening with Brexit. Whether we stay in or come out, half the country is going to feel aggrieved.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

100%. :agree:
Choose the battles you know you will win. At this time, I'm sure there are many folk from both sides of the argument who are sick to death of referendums and the upset they cause. Whether the next independence vote is a yes or no, I sincerely home the winner gets at least 70% of the poll so there's no split in the nation. The last one has torn the country apart to some degree. Not a good thing for any side.
The same is happening with Brexit. Whether we stay in or come out, half the country is going to feel aggrieved.

Agree. The best outcome would be either a brexit that is fine, with a clear message from the people that we dont want another indyref or

A situation where the majority of us come towards indy - rather than it being 'won' via campaigning and all that entails (previous indy, brexit divisions, spurious or just wrong campaign claims etc), it would be great that if it happened, its because a strong consensus emerged, amd not a 50+1 scenario (either way).

Maybe im being too optimistic on that though.

[Colr]

If there was an election tomorrow, the most likely outcome would be a Labour/SNP government.

Has there been any discussion on what the SNP would do in government?

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

If there was an election tomorrow, the most likely outcome would be a Labour/SNP government.

Has there been any discussion on what the SNP would do in government?

Blame everything on Lond...oh, wait.

Blame everything on Brusse...oh, wait.

**** knows.

[RamYer1902]

I think a lot of people will realise indy is inevitable when May and the Tories bring this country to its knees after Brexit.


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[marinello59]

I think a lot of people will realise indy is inevitable when May and the Tories bring this country to its knees after Brexit.


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Saying Brexit will bring the country to its knees is as ridiculous as saying Scotland would not have survived independence.

[Colr]

I think a lot of people will realise indy is inevitable when May and the Tories bring this country to its knees after Brexit.


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Given the scenario I suggested about, Labour’s evolving position is to scrap the House of Lords and replace it with a UK parliament with 4 federal country parliaments beneath it. That could give the SNP independence lite.

If it was to work, I think we would need to move beyond 2 party politics and first past the post TBH. If Brexit splits the Tories that might happen.

[-Jonesy-]

Saying Brexit will bring the country to its knees is as ridiculous as saying Scotland would not have survived independence.

Think it's still safe to say the tories will regardless

[Smartie]

I think a lot of people will realise indy is inevitable when May and the Tories bring this country to its knees after Brexit.


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Saying Brexit will bring the country to its knees is as ridiculous as saying Scotland would not have survived independence.

That's not exactly what he said - Brexit starting it, then being finished off by May and the Tories was what was suggested would bring the country to its knees.

I think it's probably a bit over-dramatic but I don't totally disagree.

Brexit is only going to make things harder for any PM - May herself knows this, and fought against it at the time. She is a weak leader and will struggle to deal with the economic problems Brexit will create (as would any leader, of any party btw) but as she is leading (badly imo) a deeply divided party, she will continue to struggle. As a Tory, the response will be austerity and further misery, taking the country to a far worse place (if not bringing it to its knees).

Brexit will be partly to blame, May and her ill-judged election which gave her no mandate to do anything will be partly to blame, the usual Tory reponse to trouble will be partly to blame.

Not all Brexit.


And as mentioned, that would be the clever time for the SNP to bring Independence back to the table. They have played a pretty clever game for a few years but have lost the plot over the past 12 months and undone a lot of their previous good work. They have been too impatient re Indyref2, they misjudged the public mood and depth of feeling in Scotland re Brexit, and have only damaged themselves by pushing too soon. I think that this mistake is mainly driven by the egos of Salmond and Sturgeon - there is a selfish personal desire to be the person who delivered Scottish Independence and to be revered as some sort of William Wallace figure, whereas if they showed a bit of patience I am convinced they would see it happen in their lifetime, having played a major part in the early stages of making it happen.

[Just Alf]

Given the scenario I suggested about, Labour’s evolving position is to scrap the House of Lords and replace it with a UK parliament with 4 federal country parliaments beneath it. That could give the SNP independence lite.

If it was to work, I think we would need to move beyond 2 party politics and first past the post TBH. If Brexit splits the Tories that might happen.As someone who voted Yes, and would again if asked to vote tomorrow.... What you've said above is still my ideal position. I'd also leave Westminster to be the English Parliament and would like to see a UK Parliament based somewhere like Birmingham or similar.



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[lord bunberry]

I disagree, if Brexit is a disaster I think people will be even more cautious of splitting further apart.

In the event of a successful yes vote we'd still have to negotiate out of the UK, apply to join the EU, see the terms of that and have another referendum. This would take years. I can't see any of this happening anytime soon.
I don’t agree. People wouldn’t have to see much of a reduction in living standards to want to look for a way out.

[johnbc70]

I don’t agree. People wouldn’t have to see much of a reduction in living standards to want to look for a way out.

The last referendum was at the height of austerity, yet was not enough to persuade people to vote yes.

[-Jonesy-]

The last referendum was at the height of austerity, yet was not enough to persuade people to vote yes.

In part, a huge part, due to a massive amount of disinformation from the government, media and business world.

[snooky]

In part, a huge part, due to a massive amount of disinformation from the government, media and business world.

:agree: It wasn't a fair fight. The dice were definitely loaded.

[Colr]

In part, a huge part, due to a massive amount of disinformation from the government, media and business world.

And before people employing arguments against independence then used a contrary position to support brexit.

These people are mostly the English establishment and their lickspittle acolytes who don’t want to be told what to do by the EU but have no problem telling Scots what they should and shouldn’t accept.

[JeMeSouviens]

The last referendum was at the height of austerity, yet was not enough to persuade people to vote yes.

tbh, I think we'd have more luck getting a Yes vote in better economic times. People who perceive themselves with "nothing to lose" might vote Yes in bad times but it's the big middle ground with jobs, mortgages, families to support etc that need to be reassured they won't take a big personal hit and that any smaller short term hit they take will be worth it in the long run.

[JeMeSouviens]

Given the scenario I suggested about, Labour’s evolving position is to scrap the House of Lords and replace it with a UK parliament with 4 federal country parliaments beneath it. That could give the SNP independence lite.

If it was to work, I think we would need to move beyond 2 party politics and first past the post TBH. If Brexit splits the Tories that might happen.

"evolving" being a very appropriate verb in that it will doubtless take them billions of years to agree to anything like a realistic proposition.

[RyeSloan]

And before people employing arguments against independence then used a contrary position to support brexit.

These people are mostly the English establishment and their lickspittle acolytes who don’t want to be told what to do by the EU but have no problem telling Scots what they should and shouldn’t accept.


There was also plenty of inversion of arguments the other way in terms of supporting Independence and supporting the continued membership of the EU.

I do find it odd that people have to put such extreme views on both votes. Personally I find it quite easy to understand why people would want to stay part of the UK but were happy to see the UK leave the EU the two positions are not mutually exclusive.

[JeMeSouviens]

There was also plenty of inversion of arguments the other way in terms of supporting Independence and supporting the continued membership of the EU.

I do find it odd that people have to put such extreme views on both votes. Personally I find it quite easy to understand why people would want to stay part of the UK but were happy to see the UK leave the EU the two positions are not mutually exclusive.

:agree:

Part of my argument for Scottish independence is that direct membership of the EU means Scotland doesn't need the "international clout" aspect of being subsumed within the UK. I accept that trading some part of national sovereignty for international cooperation is desirable in the modern world, just not all 100% of it. :wink:

[lord bunberry]

The last referendum was at the height of austerity, yet was not enough to persuade people to vote yes.
I would say that is mainly due to the argument that things would get worse post independence. If things get worse post brexit, lots of people may feel betrayed.

[RyeSloan]

I would say that is mainly due to the argument that things would get worse post independence. If things get worse post brexit, lots of people may feel betrayed.

Well we are already seeing the impact of increased devolution. Higher taxes are already here with more to come. The concept that Indy would lead to even higher taxation as Scotland tried to balance its books doesn't look like it was all Project Fear fiction after all.

Again it's all down to interpretation ...things getting worse may be palatable if there is evidence that they will subsequently get better. The Indy campaign failed to convince the majority that would be what would happen. People saw the risk / reward trade off and simply didn't fancy it...and who can blame them for that?

Oh and I know a lot of people still blame a biased media etc etc but really I think (anecdotal, personal opinion!) it was more down to the ruinous unpreparedness of Salmond and co. on just what Indy actually meant that resulted in the majority voting No.

[Moulin Yarns]

Well we are already seeing the impact of increased devolution. Higher taxes are already here with more to come. The concept that Indy would lead to even higher taxation as Scotland tried to balance its books doesn't look like it was all Project Fear fiction after all.

Again it's all down to interpretation ...things getting worse may be palatable if there is evidence that they will subsequently get better. The Indy campaign failed to convince the majority that would be what would happen. People saw the risk / reward trade off and simply didn't fancy it...and who can blame them for that?

Oh and I know a lot of people still blame a biased media etc etc but really I think (anecdotal, personal opinion!) it was more down to the ruinous unpreparedness of Salmond and co. on just what Indy actually meant that resulted in the majority voting No.

Another fallacy

Base rate in Scotland is 20% same as England.
Higher rate in Scotland is 40% same as England
Additional Rate in Scotland is 45% same as England

Taxes are no different to other parts of the UK

[Smartie]

I'd welcome higher taxes, especially council tax, and I'm happy to pay my way.

Just as long as the money is spent wisely. It is heartbreaking to see the state of so many public facilities in this city. We can either continue to accept the decline, delude ourselves that someone else is going to pay, or we can dig deep.

I don't freak out about higher taxes the way the Tory press do.

[JeMeSouviens]

Well we are already seeing the impact of increased devolution. Higher taxes are already here with more to come. The concept that Indy would lead to even higher taxation as Scotland tried to balance its books doesn't look like it was all Project Fear fiction after all.

Again it's all down to interpretation ...things getting worse may be palatable if there is evidence that they will subsequently get better. The Indy campaign failed to convince the majority that would be what would happen. People saw the risk / reward trade off and simply didn't fancy it...and who can blame them for that?

Oh and I know a lot of people still blame a biased media etc etc but really I think (anecdotal, personal opinion!) it was more down to the ruinous unpreparedness of Salmond and co. on just what Indy actually meant that resulted in the majority voting No.

You're conflating 2 very different things there: higher taxes being considered now would give Scotland (even) higher public spending than in England as a political choice. It's nothing to do with the notional "deficit".

[JeMeSouviens]

Another fallacy

Base rate in Scotland is 20% same as England.
Higher rate in Scotland is 40% same as England
Additional Rate in Scotland is 45% same as England

Taxes are no different to other parts of the UK

The income level at which the 40% rate kicks in is different though. So higher rate taxpayers pay about £400 more.

But council tax is (on average) cheaper, so individual taxpayers don't necessarily pay a higher total figure than in England.

[Moulin Yarns]

The income level at which the 40% rate kicks in is different though. So higher rate taxpayers pay about £400 more.

But council tax is (on average) cheaper, so individual taxpayers don't necessarily pay a higher total figure than in England.

I know all that, JMS :wink:, I was just pointing out that the Higher Tax Rates are not, which is the impression that was given in the post I replied to.

[JeMeSouviens]

I know all that, JMS :wink:, I was just pointing out that the Higher Tax Rates are not, which is the impression that was given in the post I replied to.

Ah, ok. I'll shut up then.

[Moulin Yarns]

Ah, ok. I'll shut up then.

Please don't, we value your opinions.

well, some of us do

[RyeSloan]

Another fallacy

Base rate in Scotland is 20% same as England.
Higher rate in Scotland is 40% same as England
Additional Rate in Scotland is 45% same as England

Taxes are no different to other parts of the UK

Sorry but it's not a fallacy and trying to pretend otherwise is disingenuous.

Just quoting tax rates makes no sense of you don't also quote the bands they are levied against.

It's very very simple. If you are a 40% tax payer in Scotland your income tax is higher than in England.

Also there is a Scottish Government proposal on various other plans to raise income tax....so income tax is already higher and heading higher again.

[lord bunberry]

Well we are already seeing the impact of increased devolution. Higher taxes are already here with more to come. The concept that Indy would lead to even higher taxation as Scotland tried to balance its books doesn't look like it was all Project Fear fiction after all.

Again it's all down to interpretation ...things getting worse may be palatable if there is evidence that they will subsequently get better. The Indy campaign failed to convince the majority that would be what would happen. People saw the risk / reward trade off and simply didn't fancy it...and who can blame them for that?

Oh and I know a lot of people still blame a biased media etc etc but really I think (anecdotal, personal opinion!) it was more down to the ruinous unpreparedness of Salmond and co. on just what Indy actually meant that resulted in the majority voting No.

I wasn’t trying to make an argument for independence. My point was that if things were to worsen after Brexit and an independence referendum was called, would the voters trust the no campaign again?

[Moulin Yarns]

Sorry but it's not a fallacy and trying to pretend otherwise is disingenuous.

Just quoting tax rates makes no sense of you don't also quote the bands they are levied against.

It's very very simple. If you are a 40% tax payer in Scotland your income tax is higher than in England.

Also there is a Scottish Government proposal on various other plans to raise income tax....so income tax is already higher and heading higher again.

I seem to recall that our taxes remained the same, it was just in England that they were reduced.

[RyeSloan]

I seem to recall that our taxes remained the same, it was just in England that they were reduced.

Nope that's not correct either. The tax bands are moved to account for inflation...not moving them effectively lowers the threshold and increases the tax.

Fiscal drag, a governments favourite tool for increasing taxation. Just look at how many people paid 40% tax in 1990 about 1 in 15, now it's something like 1 in 6. Are you seriously trying to say that not raising thresholds does not increase taxes?

[RyeSloan]

I wasn’t trying to make an argument for independence. My point was that if things were to worsen after Brexit and an independence referendum was called, would the voters trust the no campaign again?

It's a fair point and it's definitely an angle but but I suppose my (poorly made) one was that in my opinion it wasn't about people trusting the No campaign it was more the fact the Yes campaign failed to 'sell the dream'.

In other words even a U.K. Going through post Brexit pains will not make the case for Indy that needs to be able to be a stand alone argument (in all senses!)...

Anyway it's a hard one to predict and who knows where the political mood will be in Scotland and rUK post Brexit and post Scottish tax rises [emoji12]

[johnbc70]

I wasn’t trying to make an argument for independence. My point was that if things were to worsen after Brexit and an independence referendum was called, would the voters trust the no campaign again?

What do you define as 'worsening' type conditions for people? What has to happen to make people feel like we need another Scottish Independence Referendum after Brexit, assuming it does go bad?

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

What do you define as 'worsening' type conditions for people? What has to happen to make people feel like we need another Scottish Independence Referendum after Brexit, assuming it does go bad?

Id say that reality has to be worse than the risk of indy. Obviously that means different things to different people.

Although the mess of Brexit might also convince people that an even tougher unravelling between Scotland and the UK isnt worth it?

Its an interesting discussion.

[johnbc70]

Id say that reality has to be worse than the risk of indy. Obviously that means different things to different people.

Although the mess of Brexit might also convince people that an even tougher unravelling between Scotland and the UK isnt worth it?

Its an interesting discussion.

It's really hard to define what worsening conditions are, there may be stats that show us certain things but it's a very personal thing. I don't think a 'bad' Brexit is going to suddenly make people shout for another independence referendum.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

It's really hard to define what worsening conditions are, there may be stats that show us certain things but it's a very personal thing. I don't think a 'bad' Brexit is going to suddenly make people shout for another independence referendum.

True its very subjective. I agree it wont cause a sudden clamour, but if you accept the premise that people dont want indy because of the risks associated with it, amything that makes those risks less, or makes the alternative more risky, will alter that balance.

However while i do agree to an extent with that premise, i dont think it tells the full story.

[johnbc70]

True its very subjective. I agree it wont cause a sudden clamour, but if you accept the premise that people dont want indy because of the risks associated with it, amything that makes those risks less, or makes the alternative more risky, will alter that balance.

However while i do agree to an extent with that premise, i dont think it tells the full story.

Or the risk will make it even worse.

[lord bunberry]

What do you define as 'worsening' type conditions for people? What has to happen to make people feel like we need another Scottish Independence Referendum after Brexit, assuming it does go bad?

Job losses would be an obvious one.

[danhibees1875]

It's a fair point and it's definitely an angle but but I suppose my (poorly made) one was that in my opinion it wasn't about people trusting the No campaign it was more the fact the Yes campaign failed to 'sell the dream'.

In other words even a U.K. Going through post Brexit pains will not make the case for Indy that needs to be able to be a stand alone argument (in all senses!)...

Anyway it's a hard one to predict and who knows where the political mood will be in Scotland and rUK post Brexit and post Scottish tax rises [emoji12]

You paint tax raises out as being a terrible thing. Measured raises and a bit more transparency about what the money is going towards wouldn't be a bad thing in my opinion.

[lord bunberry]

It's a fair point and it's definitely an angle but but I suppose my (poorly made) one was that in my opinion it wasn't about people trusting the No campaign it was more the fact the Yes campaign failed to 'sell the dream'.

In other words even a U.K. Going through post Brexit pains will not make the case for Indy that needs to be able to be a stand alone argument (in all senses!)...

Anyway it's a hard one to predict and who knows where the political mood will be in Scotland and rUK post Brexit and post Scottish tax rises [emoji12]

I don’t think it’s inconceivable that we could have businesses on the side of independence in a future independence referendum as they may see it as a route back into the EU. Also EU nationals could also be thinking along the same lines.
As you say though it’s impossible to predict, for all we know Brexit could be a success and other European countries might follow us out of the EU.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

You paint tax raises out as being a terrible thing. Measured raises and a bit more transparency about what the money is going towards wouldn't be a bad thing in my opinion.

Some people think that, others hate them.

The difficulty is if the people who alreadycsupport Yes that, generally, would support tax rises.

A lot.of the people yes need to win around to win, traditionally dont.

Obviously thats a generalisation, but.it shows why politics is difficult and why the centre ground, normally, rules.

Also, the tax profil in scotland is v different to england, and so the tax burden falls mostly on middle classes, who are not 'rich' in the classic 'tax the rich' sense.

I believe scotland only has 20,000 upper rate tax payers - very easy for them to their domicile to england.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

I don’t think it’s inconceivable that we could have businesses on the side of independence in a future independence referendum as they may see it as a route back into the EU. Also EU nationals could also be thinking along the same lines.
As you say though it’s impossible to predict, for all we know Brexit could be a success and other European countries might follow us out of the EU.

Agree - we really are, more than ever, sailig in uncharted waters.

I tjink it could conceivably go in any direction.