C'mon the Merkel

[Hibrandenburg]

Lots of folk equate the German CDU to the UK's Tory party. Whilst they are right of centre they're nowhere near as despicable as May and co. Whilst I could never support the CDU I really do hope she gets re-elected, simply because I think her humanitarian decisiveness at the height of the refugee crisis has probably saved thousands of lives and the message it will send to the far right is "go **** yourselves" and that humanitarianism and scruples still have a place in our society.

[PeeJay]

Lots of folk equate the German CDU to the UK's Tory party. Whilst they are right of centre they're nowhere near as despicable as May and co. Whilst I could never support the CDU I really do hope she gets re-elected, simply because I think her humanitarian decisiveness at the height of the refugee crisis has probably saved thousands of lives and the message it will send to the far right is "go **** yourselves" and that humanitarianism and scruples still have a place in our society.

Not a Merkel fan either, but you're spot on about her "humanitarian decisiveness" - she (CDU) will no doubt win the election, the problem will be who the CDU coalition wil be with. Personally, I hope Schulz ultimately says no to another GroKo as I feel the SPD has to get into the opposition seat for a few years - Germany needs a strong opposition party to get us rid of the AfD ****.

[Mibbes Aye]

Lots of folk equate the German CDU to the UK's Tory party. Whilst they are right of centre they're nowhere near as despicable as May and co. Whilst I could never support the CDU I really do hope she gets re-elected, simply because I think her humanitarian decisiveness at the height of the refugee crisis has probably saved thousands of lives and the message it will send to the far right is "go **** yourselves" and that humanitarianism and scruples still have a place in our society.

:agree:

There was a good article in the Guardian the other day about her, quite long and in-depth and it focused on this as being one of the aspects of her time in government where she put principle right in front of popularity or what the polls were telling her.

[JeMeSouviens]

:agree:

There was a good article in the Guardian the other day about her, quite long and in-depth and it focused on this as being one of the aspects of her time in government where she put principle right in front of popularity or what the polls were telling her.

Leadership that leads. Pretty novel thing these days!

[Mibbes Aye]

Leadership that leads. Pretty novel thing these days!

Yup :agree:

[IGRIGI]

At least 13% for the AFD, a part of Germany has sent a "go **** yourself" message and it ain't Merkel's crew...

[Hibrandenburg]

Not a Merkel fan either, but you're spot on about her "humanitarian decisiveness" - she (CDU) will no doubt win the election, the problem will be who the CDU coalition wil be with. Personally, I hope Schulz ultimately says no to another GroKo as I feel the SPD has to get into the opposition seat for a few years - Germany needs a strong opposition party to get us rid of the AfD ****.

:agree: But Schulz is not the man to do the job. The SPD need a new/old left wing figure a la Osker Lafontaine or Gregor Gysi.

[Hibrandenburg]

:agree:

There was a good article in the Guardian the other day about her, quite long and in-depth and it focused on this as being one of the aspects of her time in government where she put principle right in front of popularity or what the polls were telling her.

It could have destroyed her and her party and probably would have done so if she was leader in any other country. I love your principles in front of popularity quote, hits the nail on the head.

[Hibrandenburg]

At least 13% for the AFD, a part of Germany has sent a "go **** yourself" message and it ain't Merkel's crew...

A mere whisper considering 87% didn't vote for them. Their biggest gains were in the former East where there's little or no migration except outwards to other German states. They're still cutting their teeth democratically there and swing from left to right every other election. The AFD will disappear up their own ********s before the next election once they show in parliament that there's nothing behind their populist policies, pretty much like UKIP did in the UK.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

At least 13% for the AFD, a part of Germany has sent a "go **** yourself" message and it ain't Merkel's crew...

Old habits die hard eh....😉

On course for 88 seats! Would UKIP have ever polled 88 seats (or a proportional equivalent) in a PR system at Westminster?

[PeeJay]

:agree: But Schulz is not the man to do the job. The SPD need a new/old left wing figure a la Osker Lafontaine or Gregor Gysi.

Well, I'm optimisitc that the SPD will regroup, sort it self out and return in the future. Think Schulz could indeed be the man, he has a great record in Europe - not sure who else could do it, don't see any outright leftist swing on the horizon? Seems to me that the middle is always the way to win elections in this country. A nationalist party like the AfD in the Bundestag is quite a shock to the system: this is anything but good for Germany, in particular, and Europe in general ....

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Well, I'm optimisitc that the SPD will regroup, sort it self out and return in the future. Think Schulz could indeed be the man, he has a great record in Europe - not sure who else could do it, don't see any outright leftist swing on the horizon? Seems to me that the middle is always the way to win elections in this country. A nationalist party like the AfD in the Bundestag is quite a shock to the system: this is anything but good for Germany, in particular, and Europe in general ....

Thats France, Austria, the UK (although our electoral system stopped them gaining seats) and i believe, a few countries eadtern Europe that have all now had sizeable swings to the populist right.

Obviously there are different connotations in Germany, but maybe the surprise is that it took so long. There will always be an 'element' of populist, protectionist, fear of the other in most countries.

88 seats does seem a lot, but i dont think it will be all that damaging ultimately. Unless itnis ignored and allowed to build pressure, which debateably happened in the UK?

Edit - apparently its between 65 and 85 seats, not 88

Good article here on challenges facing Merkel -

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/25/challenges-merkel-faces-as-she-starts-fourth-term-as-german-chancellor

[Hibrandenburg]

Well, I'm optimisitc that the SPD will regroup, sort it self out and return in the future. Think Schulz could indeed be the man, he has a great record in Europe - not sure who else could do it, don't see any outright leftist swing on the horizon? Seems to me that the middle is always the way to win elections in this country. A nationalist party like the AfD in the Bundestag is quite a shock to the system: this is anything but good for Germany, in particular, and Europe in general ....

The AFD will implode over the next 4 years. Their policies on homosexuality, religion, single mums, health, education, conscription, family, climate change and nationalism will ensure their downfall. Once people see what's really on the agenda they'll realise that next to nobody is excluded from their policies except for church going married middle class xenophobics and they'll alienate themselves from the vast majority of their electorate. They also can't agree amongst themselves. Like in the UK, politics will drift right of centre and the centre right will re-establish themselves, not really worrying as the centre in Germany is relatively left orientated anyway. I think it will take at least another 2 elections before the SPD can regroup. Reassuring is that the 87% are pretty unanimous in their condemnation of the AFD.

[PeeJay]

The AFD will implode over the next 4 years. Their policies on homosexuality, religion, single mums, health, education, conscription, family, climate change and nationalism will ensure their downfall. Once people see what's really on the agenda they'll realise that next to nobody is excluded from their policies except for church going married middle class xenophobics and they'll alienate themselves from the vast majority of their electorate. They also can't agree amongst themselves. Like in the UK, politics will drift right of centre and the centre right will re-establish themselves, not really worrying as the centre in Germany is relatively left orientated anyway. I think it will take at least another 2 elections before the SPD can regroup. Reassuring is that the 87% are pretty unanimous in their condemnation of the AFD.

Good points - 4 years - hope you're spot on about that :greengrin ... when asked, Gauland brazenly stated yesterday evening on the Anne Will talk show that his party has nothing constructive to offer for Germany nor does it even have a concept to sort out the pensions, education and so on "... we don't need to, that's not why peope are voting for us" - although he was roundly laughed at by the majority of the audience, I found that quite a chilling statement ... anyway, seems we are alll off to Jamaica for a while - bad night all round, "they" even want to keep Tegel open ...

[One Day Soon]

Merkel may be the only serious politician the West has at any level. Unfortunately with Germany's history I don't see any German leader being influential - or wanting to be influential - on foreign/international policy any time soon.

A bit early to say on Macron but I haven't seen anything yet that marks him out as specially good.

Trump is clearly a buffoon, May is the definition of transitory - who else is there?

[PeeJay]

The AFD will implode over the next 4 years. Their policies on homosexuality, religion, single mums, health, education, conscription, family, climate change and nationalism will ensure their downfall. Once people see what's really on the agenda they'll realise that next to nobody is excluded from their policies except for church going married middle class xenophobics and they'll alienate themselves from the vast majority of their electorate. They also can't agree amongst themselves. Like in the UK, politics will drift right of centre and the centre right will re-establish themselves, not really worrying as the centre in Germany is relatively left orientated anyway. I think it will take at least another 2 elections before the SPD can regroup. Reassuring is that the 87% are pretty unanimous in their condemnation of the AFD.


Has it started already? AfD leader - Frauke Petry - has decided not to be involved in the Parliamentary party, walking out on her colleagues at their first press conference here in Berlin this morning - the "moderateish" Petry now leaves the arena to the more concerted fascist wing of her party ... maybe they won't last the course after all?

[One Day Soon]

Has it started already? AfD leader - Frauke Petry - has decided not to be involved in the Parliamentary party, walking out on her colleagues at their first press conference here in Berlin this morning - the "moderateish" Petry now leaves the arena to the more concerted fascist wing of her party ... maybe they won't last the course after all?

They're not going away in a hurry. In fact I think they will grow because they now have quite a lot of power with next to no responsibility. Every terrorist attack, every asylum seeker related story, every EU financial cost increase and every complicated social policy issue that makes sense in practice but doesn't lend itself to easy popular opinion management is going to be turned into a "we told you so issue". And now the "we told you so" will be delivered in the Bundestag making it look formal, legitimate and clothed in credibility. In turn this will give greater legitimacy for their language, ideas and labels to be adopted more openly into public discourse where previously it was perceived as being taboo.

Movements like this are dependent upon 'othering' another group, so that they can portray them as parasites on Germany's wealth and people. I think they'll turbo-charge their attack claims about Muslims and other EU nations living off German wealth.

12% of the vote isn't a trivial amount and being the third largest party on the polotical ground they've chosen effectively makes them the substantive political - if not the functional - opposition given that the actual second placed party (the SPD) has performed poorly and itself acknowledged that it is in a mess.

The AfD now has a seriously prominent platform, Germany is gradually becoming more open to language and ideas which play into the sense of nation and patriotism and everything we have seen elsewhere (Trump, Brexit, Syriza, the French National Front etc) tells us that outsider politicians and political movements are a significant part of what electorates are embracing.

I think Merkel is going to find it tough not to tack towards the AfD to some extent or else risk degrading popular support for her party or a possible leadership challenge from within.

[JeMeSouviens]

Old habits die hard eh....😉

On course for 88 seats! Would UKIP have ever polled 88 seats (or a proportional equivalent) in a PR system at Westminster?

They got 12.6% in the 2015 GE. Arguably they might have expected more in a PR system, given tactical voting tends to squeeze smaller parties.

[One Day Soon]

And it so it begins, the more plausible face of AfD leadership declines to sit with their parliamentary group as the other co-Leader says "We say I don't want to lose Germany to an invasion of foreigners from a different culture."

[Colr]

And it so it begins, the more plausible face of AfD leadership declines to sit with their parliamentary group as the other co-Leader says "We say I don't want to lose Germany to an invasion of foreigners from a different culture."

AfD splitting already. Rather typical of the right wing (thankfully).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/25/afd-leader-frauke-petry-quits-party-german-election-breakthrough

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

They got 12.6% in the 2015 GE. Arguably they might have expected more in a PR system, given tactical voting tends to squeeze smaller parties.

Cheers JMS, so broadly similar.

A plus point of FPTP

[G B Young]

A mere whisper considering 87% didn't vote for them. Their biggest gains were in the former East where there's little or no migration except outwards to other German states. They're still cutting their teeth democratically there and swing from left to right every other election. The AFD will disappear up their own ********s before the next election once they show in parliament that there's nothing behind their populist policies, pretty much like UKIP did in the UK.

I don't doubt you know a great deal more about the lie of the German political landscape than I do seeing you live there, but from what I've read it's more than a mere whisper. The AfD seem to have come from pretty much nowhere to become Germany's third largest party which, coupled with Merkel presiding over her party's worst performance since the 1940s must, at least, be indicative of a message being sent to the establishment (ie resentment at the number of refugees allowed into Germany).

As you say, one would hope they will hit their peak and fade from the headlines like UKIP, but I'd suggest that their significantly better than expected performance is the latest in a series of developments across the political landscape that give cause for concern.