538 SPFL predictions

[NYHibby]

FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver's site) launched their expanded football predictions yesterday. Scottish football is included this year.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premiership

Before the Rangers game, we were predicted to finish 8th with 43 points. After the win, we are up to 7th with 49 points.

Before everyone jumps to critise the rankings, I think it will be more accurate once a couple more games are played, particularly for us. It's not clear to me how the initial rating is done for newly promoted teams.

[nonshinyfinish]

I saw this the other day, and had that initial reaction of how are we in the bottom half?

As you say, it's not clear how they would rank a new team in the league, but overall the approach is very datacentric (so they're not going to be like "f*** me, Hibs have signed Stokesy and former Juventus midfielder Vykintas Slivka! They're going to walk it!"), so it will be based on actual results. No idea if they've included League Cup/last year's Championship results, and if so how they've been weighted.

I agree that as the season develops and they have a decent number of SPL result to judge us on, the ranking will change.

I enjoy their football (soccer…) coverage, precisely because it's from a different perspective to what you normally read.

[NYHibby]

Their global club ranking is now out. We are 420th out of the 426 teams they ranked.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/global-club-soccer-rankings/

[Sean1875]

Their global club ranking is now out. We are 420th out of the 426 teams they ranked.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/global-club-soccer-rankings/

They've got The Rangers at 279 in that list :faf:

[Steve20]

Realistically, none of us know how we'll get on this season. Still reckon we could finish up anywhere between 3rd-8th. That table they have won't be right because, despite their performance on Saturday, Hamilton will be in the bottom four.

We will be around about the likes of Rangers, St Johnstone, Hearts and Partick come the end of the season, imo.

[Keith_M]

I think we'll have a much better idea of how well we're going to do after the first full round of games (24th October)