General election - It's going to get dirty soon

[Hibbyradge]

Despite Dianne Abbots excruciating interviews, and JCs unconvincing oratory, Labour seems to be campaigning quite strongly.

Although some of the early policy announcements were a bit gimmicky, the headliners should be popular with target voters and the attacks on May's tendency to hide from voters is hitting home.

I'm not sure why Corbyn refused to confirm that Britain would leave the EU even if the deal we got was less than satisfactory, but I'm glad he did. Of course, it may simply have been an attempt to give folk like me hope so they don't vote Liberal, but it was still positive imo.

As a result of all this, the polls are indicating that the Tory lead is lessening, and although a Labour win still looks highly unlikely, there's real hope that they won't be wiped out as was predicted.

So, what should we expect next?

Watch out for all the stuff about Corbyn's friends in Hamas and Hezbollah, his meeting with convicted IRA terrorists in the houses of parliament, 2 weeks after the Brighton bombings, refusal to sing the national anthem etc etc being highlighted by the Tory campaign and the right wing press.

We're about to enter the dirty and personal phase.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Despite Dianne Abbots excruciating interviews, and JCs unconvincing oratory, Labour seems to be campaigning quite strongly.

Although some of the early policy announcements were a bit gimmicky, the headliners should be popular with target voters and the attacks on May's tendency to hide from voters is hitting home.

I'm not sure why Corbyn refused to confirm that Britain would leave the EU even if the deal we got was less than satisfactory, but I'm glad he did. Of course, it may simply have been an attempt to give folk like me hope so they don't vote Liberal, but it was still positive imo.

As a result of all this, the polls are indicating that the Tory lead is lessening, and although a Labour win still looks highly unlikely, there's real hope that they won't be wiped out as was predicted.

So, what should we expect next?

Watch out for all the stuff about Corbyn's friends in Hamas and Hezbollah, his meeting with convicted IRA terrorists in the houses of parliament, 2 weeks after the Brighton bombings, refusal to sing the national anthem etc etc being highlighted by the Tory campaign and the right wing press.

We're about to enter the dirty and personal phase.

Agree that labour's campaign has been ok. Plus the tories strategy seems less about winning votes, and more about not losing them.

My only observation about labour is it seems to be very much pitched at shoring up its support rather than appealing beyond its core vote.

But given the circumstances that is maybe the right approach.

I heard a senior Labour MP say before the campaign really got going that they didnt think it would be as bad as all that, and he is one who is standing down due to corbyn, so hardly a friend.

I think labour shpuld hope for no more interventions from our European chums - they play right into May's hands imo.

[snooky]

The energy bill capping is a brilliant/obscene (pick either) campaign vote catcher.
It's worth noting however that their intention is subtly qualified by the word "some".

The Energy suppliers have responded stating that it will make the average bill higher. :brickwall :crazy: :sairhead: :wtf: :cb

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

The energy bill capping is a brilliant/obscene (pick either) campaign vote catcher.
It's worth noting however that their intention is subtly qualified by the word "some".

The Energy suppliers have responded stating that it will make the average bill higher. :brickwall :crazy: :sairhead: :wtf: :cb

Agree and its another example of how May is quite hard to secodn guess.

Fwiw, id say this is an area ripe for stronger regulation, as it seems to be an area in which the market doesnt function too well.

[Moulin Yarns]

The energy bill capping is a brilliant/obscene (pick either) campaign vote catcher.
It's worth noting however that their intention is subtly qualified by the word "some".

The Energy suppliers have responded stating that it will make the average bill higher. :brickwall :crazy: :sairhead: :wtf: :cb

There was an interesting discussion on the radio yesterday. Suggested it should work like insurance in that the energy company should send a reminder to the customer that their deal (contract) is coming to an end and offer the best similar deal and the customer can then accept it or shop around, as with house or car insurance.

Made a lot of sense. If you are happy with what is offered you don't need to do anything, but you can change if you want to.

[OsloHibs]

What do you mean "going"- it is already.
They are all as bad as each other with nasty, petty comments & name calling. No wonder so many British people are turning off in very large numbers.

[marinello59]

I've been impressed with Corbyn so far. At least he is speaking from the heart rather than spouting slogans at his party faithful.

[Hibrandenburg]

I've been impressed with Corbyn so far. At least he is speaking from the heart rather than spouting slogans at his party faithful.

:agree: It still won't be enough for most.

[ronaldo7]

Despite Dianne Abbots excruciating interviews, and JCs unconvincing oratory, Labour seems to be campaigning quite strongly.

Although some of the early policy announcements were a bit gimmicky, the headliners should be popular with target voters and the attacks on May's tendency to hide from voters is hitting home.

I'm not sure why Corbyn refused to confirm that Britain would leave the EU even if the deal we got was less than satisfactory, but I'm glad he did. Of course, it may simply have been an attempt to give folk like me hope so they don't vote Liberal, but it was still positive imo.

As a result of all this, the polls are indicating that the Tory lead is lessening, and although a Labour win still looks highly unlikely, there's real hope that they won't be wiped out as was predicted.

So, what should we expect next?

Watch out for all the stuff about Corbyn's friends in Hamas and Hezbollah, his meeting with convicted IRA terrorists in the houses of parliament, 2 weeks after the Brighton bombings, refusal to sing the national anthem etc etc being highlighted by the Tory campaign and the right wing press.

We're about to enter the dirty and personal phase.


Both bits in bold go together. Hopefully Corbyn can keep it up in England, and with May only taking to her own people, you never know.:wink:

[ronaldo7]

Theresa May is just ill informed.:rolleyes: or a downright Liar.

https://t.co/YXQoU5q7qu

[Hibs Class]

Theresa May is just ill informed.:rolleyes: or a downright Liar.

https://t.co/YXQoU5q7qu

I take it this relates to Sturgeon's use of a helicopter in the last election? Is the point here that the tories used a bus and snp used a helicopter, and the tories were fined whilst snp weren't, in relation to expense declarations?

[ronaldo7]

I take it this relates to Sturgeon's use of a helicopter in the last election? Is the point here that the tories used a bus and snp used a helicopter, and the tories were fined whilst snp weren't, in relation to expense declarations?

Nope, it's about Theresa lying about other parties being fined by the Electoral commission, when, in fact, the SNP have never been fined by them.

Sturgeon's use of the helicopter was used within the rules, as I remember. Maybe you think otherwise, and can provide evidence?

[Colr]

Despite Dianne Abbots excruciating interviews, and JCs unconvincing oratory, Labour seems to be campaigning quite strongly.

Although some of the early policy announcements were a bit gimmicky, the headliners should be popular with target voters and the attacks on May's tendency to hide from voters is hitting home.

I'm not sure why Corbyn refused to confirm that Britain would leave the EU even if the deal we got was less than satisfactory, but I'm glad he did. Of course, it may simply have been an attempt to give folk like me hope so they don't vote Liberal, but it was still positive imo.

As a result of all this, the polls are indicating that the Tory lead is lessening, and although a Labour win still looks highly unlikely, there's real hope that they won't be wiped out as was predicted.

So, what should we expect next?

Watch out for all the stuff about Corbyn's friends in Hamas and Hezbollah, his meeting with convicted IRA terrorists in the houses of parliament, 2 weeks after the Brighton bombings, refusal to sing the national anthem etc etc being highlighted by the Tory campaign and the right wing press.

We're about to enter the dirty and personal phase.

Sure will. The media have got the knives out more so that they did for Milliband but Labour have utteerly failed to see the value of winning the media war. Mandellson/Campbell were great at that. In this era of social media and informal news through the internet political parties are still in the dark ages but the current Labour party are back pre-neolithic!!

Can't help feeling that the old Labour party has had its day.

[Hibs Class]

Nope, it's about Theresa lying about other parties being fined by the Electoral commission, when, in fact, the SNP have never been fined by them.

Sturgeon's use of the helicopter was used within the rules, as I remember. Maybe you think otherwise, and can provide evidence?

No idea. I heard TM's comments yesterday about other electoral commission findings (I think she described it as "other major parties and the SNP") and had just been trying to find what the comparable complaint was in relation to the SNP.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

What were peoples thoughts on the leaked manifesto?

I think there is some good stuff in there, and somr definite vote winners imo.

But there seems to be a lot about spending and not a lot about where all the money is going to come from. Which does rather concern me.

Rather that nationliase railways, is there no way we can run them on the edinburgh busses model?

Because that is a model of a civic-owned, but not civic run service that seems to work very well indeed.

[pacoluna]

What were peoples thoughts on the leaked manifesto?

I think there is some good stuff in there, and somr definite vote winners imo.

But there seems to be a lot about spending and not a lot about where all the money is going to come from. Which does rather concern me.

Rather that nationliase railways, is there no way we can run them on the edinburgh busses model?

Because that is a model of a civic-owned, but not civic run service that seems to work very well indeed.

Imitation is the best form of flattery.

[danhibees1875]

What were peoples thoughts on the leaked manifesto?

I think there is some good stuff in there, and somr definite vote winners imo.

But there seems to be a lot about spending and not a lot about where all the money is going to come from. Which does rather concern me.

Rather that nationliase railways, is there no way we can run them on the edinburgh busses model?

Because that is a model of a civic-owned, but not civic run service that seems to work very well indeed.


I like it from the skim read I had. I don't like all of it (but I'd say I liked a good majority) and there are things I would have liked to have seen that aren't in there. But generally, I think it's good. It's generally, what a proper Labour manifesto should look like IMO - how it does at the polls will probably be very telling as to the future of the Labour party as a result. I think they need to really drive home these policies at every opportunity (as they are, IMO, good) and - to paraphrase another poster on here from somewhere - drive home the fact this isn't America and we're not voting for a president; we're voting for a party.

I could be totally wrong but are Edinburgh buses not effectively nationalised? (owned and ran by Edinburgh council at an arms length)
What differences would there be/advantages do you see in that model over nationalisation?
For me, it ticks the box for nationalisation in that it's a "necessity" (okay, not 100%) which has such high barriers to entry that there is an effective oligopoly. In these situations I'm pro nationalising industries to ensure that money raised goes towards providing cheaper access and/or better products/services rather than lining private business pockets. (see also, energy provision)

As for your funding question; I could be wrong but I think that is also covered (maybe not in the manifesto itself to be fair) through increasing taxation on those over £80k p.a. (not sure how exactly, but party through a 50p taxation bracket. I'm not sure on the policy here exactly, are they suggesting increasing the 45p to 50p and decreasing the threshold from 150k to 80k? That's a lot more radical than I'd expect though).
There were various other taxation areas they were focusing on to increase their income - CT, IHT,CGT - the exact policies again escape me. A tax on private health insurance and an end to VAT exemption for private schools were also raised. Those and clamping down on tax avoidance from High Wealth individuals and big business is meant to cover all the extra costs, and then some, but I've not done the actual sums; nor would I know how to get the data to begin to do the sums. :greengrin

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

I like it from the skim read I had. I don't like all of it (but I'd say I liked a good majority) and there are things I would have liked to have seen that aren't in there. But generally, I think it's good. It's generally, what a proper Labour manifesto should look like IMO - how it does at the polls will probably be very telling as to the future of the Labour party as a result. I think they need to really drive home these policies at every opportunity (as they are, IMO, good) and - to paraphrase another poster on here from somewhere - drive home the fact this isn't America and we're not voting for a president; we're voting for a party.

I could be totally wrong but are Edinburgh buses not effectively nationalised? (owned and ran by Edinburgh council at an arms length)
What differences would there be/advantages do you see in that model over nationalisation?
For me, it ticks the box for nationalisation in that it's a "necessity" (okay, not 100%) which has such high barriers to entry that there is an effective oligopoly. In these situations I'm pro nationalising industries to ensure that money raised goes towards providing cheaper access and/or better products/services rather than lining private business pockets. (see also, energy provision)

As for your funding question; I could be wrong but I think that is also covered (maybe not in the manifesto itself to be fair) through increasing taxation on those over £80k p.a. (not sure how exactly, but party through a 50p taxation bracket. I'm not sure on the policy here exactly, are they suggesting increasing the 45p to 50p and decreasing the threshold from 150k to 80k? That's a lot more radical than I'd expect though).
There were various other taxation areas they were focusing on to increase their income - CT, IHT,CGT - the exact policies again escape me. A tax on private health insurance and an end to VAT exemption for private schools were also raised. Those and clamping down on tax avoidance from High Wealth individuals and big business is meant to cover all the extra costs, and then some, but I've not done the actual sums; nor would I know how to get the data to begin to do the sums. :greengrin

Yeah, edinburgh busses are (afaik) majority owned by the council but run as an arms length company as you say - i see that as slightly different as when i hear nationalisatiob, inthink of a minister directing a quango - the lothian busses model seems to work brilliantly and i dont understand why it hasnt been rolled out further across scotland to be honest.

Yeah i saw some of that on the funding, but it just seems a bit too good to be true amd too easy. Im sceptical about that, bit not closed minded.

I agree, that places where competitiobn isnt or hasnt worked, nationalising etc should be considered. Railways should be looled at. But its a huge outlay so i wohld want some cold hard analysis and not it being done for ideological reasosns or to appease unions. I dont aee why we need a royal mail to be state owned, we would be better putting that money into broadband imo.

[McD]

Both bits in bold go together. Hopefully Corbyn can keep it up in England, and with May only taking to her own people, you never know.:wink:


Out of personal curiosity (no hidden agenda honestly), you are possibly the most active political poster on here R7, who would you prefer to win the general election (given the SNP can't have enough seats to be the majority party in Westminster)? I know you would prefer independence, but in the short term (at least until the timeframe for indyref2), who would be your preference?


as I said, no hidden agenda or axe to grind, I'm genuinely interested in your thoughts.

[ronaldo7]

Out of personal curiosity (no hidden agenda honestly), you are possibly the most active political poster on here R7, who would you prefer to win the general election (given the SNP can't have enough seats to be the majority party in Westminster)? I know you would prefer independence, but in the short term (at least until the timeframe for indyref2), who would be your preference?


as I said, no hidden agenda or axe to grind, I'm genuinely interested in your thoughts.

Labour, and also in the hope that they'd need some help from the SNP to enact a progressive manifesto.

Not sure they'd do that though. The bain principle is strong in some around Corbyn.

[McD]

Labour, and also in the hope that they'd need some help from the SNP to enact a progressive manifesto.

Not sure they'd do that though. The bain principle is strong in some around Corbyn.


Cheers :aok:

[steakbake]

I love the Labour manifesto, what I've read about it. Great stuff. Then I take a look at what has come out of Scottish Labour today and it's all about the SNP/indyref and nothing positive about what they'd actually do.

Then I read coverage of what some of their MPs or spokespeople are saying - likes of Brown, Darling, others - who can bring themselves to get behind it and back JC for PM.

[danhibees1875]

Yeah, edinburgh busses are (afaik) majority owned by the council but run as an arms length company as you say - i see that as slightly different as when i hear nationalisatiob, inthink of a minister directing a quango - the lothian busses model seems to work brilliantly and i dont understand why it hasnt been rolled out further across scotland to be honest.

Yeah i saw some of that on the funding, but it just seems a bit too good to be true amd too easy. Im sceptical about that, bit not closed minded.

I agree, that places where competitiobn isnt or hasnt worked, nationalising etc should be considered. Railways should be looled at. But its a huge outlay so i wohld want some cold hard analysis and not it being done for ideological reasosns or to appease unions. I dont aee why we need a royal mail to be state owned, we would be better putting that money into broadband imo.

I agree, the bus service in Edinburgh is fantastic. I'm not familiar with how it's ran though - does it make/retain profit? Or is it all reinvested in the service/costed to break even?

I don't know enough about the exact funding either - you'd like to think the maths is all there and someone with the earnings data has worked out that doing X generates Y...but who knows...

A lot of the railway infrastructure is there at least - although I agree it would be a large project. I think a major barrier would be having to hire people with good industry knowledge and how you afford that when trying to run a nationalised service.

One of the key things about royal mail is that they deliver to everyone. If private business took over the delivery sector (?) then what if they suddenly decided that delivering to the Highlands and islands isn't profitable and stop - just delivering to big cities where the efficiencies are there to make higher profits.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

I agree, the bus service in Edinburgh is fantastic. I'm not familiar with how it's ran though - does it make/retain profit? Or is it all reinvested in the service/costed to break even?

I don't know enough about the exact funding either - you'd like to think the maths is all there and someone with the earnings data has worked out that doing X generates Y...but who knows...

A lot of the railway infrastructure is there at least - although I agree it would be a large project. I think a major barrier would be having to hire people with good industry knowledge and how you afford that when trying to run a nationalised service.

One of the key things about royal mail is that they deliver to everyone. If private business took over the delivery sector (?) then what if they suddenly decided that delivering to the Highlands and islands isn't profitable and stop - just delivering to big cities where the efficiencies are there to make higher profits.

I dont know the ins and outs, but im a regular user and they seem to be constantly investing in new bussea, and they pay quite well - it seems to work really well.

I think it is run as normal company, so it makes profit but tjat the council is the majority shareholder, bit i might be wrong.

I spoke to a labour person at holyrood and asked them wjy they dont have it as a policy, and they said they were looling into it, bit with both stagecoach amd first being scottish companies (i think?) there were some big vested interests to overcome.

I get that about royal mail, it just seems like a dying service. But i take your point.

[danhibees1875]

I dont know the ins and outs, but im a regular user and they seem to be constantly investing in new bussea, and they pay quite well - it seems to work really well.

I think it is run as normal company, so it makes profit but tjat the council is the majority shareholder, bit i might be wrong.

I spoke to a labour person at holyrood and asked them wjy they dont have it as a policy, and they said they were looling into it, bit with both stagecoach amd first being scottish companies (i think?) there were some big vested interests to overcome.

I get that about royal mail, it just seems like a dying service. But i take your point.
I use the buses often too and totally agree - the vested interest thing makes a lot of sense actually, I assume that must be the major hold up on progressing it.

Hard to say, letters are obviously decreasing but deliveries for online sales and shopping for groceries /food is on the up - although that's something that will/could be delivered by drones in the not too distant future.

Sent from my EVA-L09 using Tapatalk

[Hibbyradge]

I love the Labour manifesto, what I've read about it. Great stuff. Then I take a look at what has come out of Scottish Labour today and it's all about the SNP/indyref and nothing positive about what they'd actually do.

Then I read coverage of what some of their MPs or spokespeople are saying - likes of Brown, Darling, others - who can bring themselves to get behind it and back JC for PM.

Not everyone is impressed and Philip Collins, in his piece for 'The Times' today, pulls no punches.

"Manchester was the ideal place to launch the Labour Party election campaign, as it turned out. Half a mile from the site of the rally, and 170 years earlier, two young men called Karl and Friedrich were working away in the library of what is now Chetham’s school of music. They were finishing a manuscript that would convulse the world and which would provide the headline for the Labour Party’s plans for Britain in 2017: The Communist Manifesto.

The leaked Labour manifesto does matter, although not for the 2017 election, which is already lost. It matters because it reveals a party which is yet to work out that there can be no election victory for an avowedly left-wing platform. This has the force of an axiom: if the left is running the Labour Party, it will lose. I have always maintained that Jeremy Corbyn’s incompetence would kill him off before anyone even got to his politics. However, in the event that he is succeeded by a more capable leader of similar views, the evidence is now in. If incompetence doesn’t get you, the manifesto will.

Corbyn will need a Ministry of Magic to find the money for this.
The really damning critique is not that the Labour Party is red in tooth and claw. It is that it is toothless and clueless. Mr Corbyn’s political ideas were stale when he first had them 40 years ago. This is a document that, at 45 pages, is long because they didn’t have the wit to write a short one. Reheated, rehashed, resigned, a sermon to the converted. The foreign policy section is too vague to be the precise terms of surrender that the leader desired but “extremely cautious” about nuclear deterrence means he doesn’t understand it. Military action when other options have “been exhausted” means “never”.

The Labour manifesto exhibits the same lack of engagement with domestic questions that the leader has shown all his political career. It contains nothing on how to improve schools and the NHS beyond demands for more spending. It has nothing on welfare except guarantees to restore housing benefit entitlements and retain the triple lock on pensions. Immigration, the biggest issue in the European referendum campaign and the fault line of Labour support, is ignored apart from an airy promise to talk about the benefits. Read this manifesto and you would think Britain was a crime-free utopia. It is hard to see why we need Diane Abbott’s extra 10,000 police officers. Or was it a quarter of a million? On Europe, the Labour muddle is written up faithfully rather than solved. On all the big public questions Labour has next to nothing to say.

Throughout the manifesto you can see the traditional Labour trinity of values: banned, compulsory or free. Fracking, zero-hours contracts, driver-only trains and unpaid internships would all be banned. A pay ratio would be compulsory in the public sector and the cap on pay rises for workers lifted. Despite explicitly saying they will make “no false promises”, Labour has made a battery of expensive pledges in social care, tuition fees, council housing and replacing all lost EU subsidy. Then there is the cost of buying back the railways, the buses, energy and the mail so they can be restored to their former glory of four decades ago. Presumably Diane Abbott’s maths teacher is in charge of working out where the money comes from. Taxing the rich and corporations, say Labour personnel, believing this to be an actual answer.

Welfare represents a failure of policies, not a prize to be claimed
A serious manifesto for the Labour Party after the European referendum would have been all about work. It would have had sections headed “Earning” and “Contribution” and it would read as if the authors felt welfare was what happened when policy failed rather than a prize to be claimed. It would have had a lot, rather than nothing, on the automated future of the workplace. It would have made a lot of the coming question of how Britain trains the next generation in a labour market less reliant on immigrant labour. It would have made the case that, though the political right led the nation out of the EU only the left knows how to make it work. The section on work in the manifesto we have reads like the opening bargaining position of Unite, which it probably is. There will be sectoral pay bargaining to give unionised labour more power. There will even be a Ministry of Labour. Might as well have a Ministry of Magic to provide all the money once the various levies on business end up destroying the very employment that the ministry is set up to protect.

In a brilliant essay written in 1982, Eric Hobsbawm analysed The Forward March of Labour Halted? Hobsbawn was himself a member of the Communist Party but he understood the Labour predicament better than many who were living it. Labour could only succeed, he wrote, when the party was able to transcend its own narrow culture and rally support from all parts of Britain. The left insurgency, said Hobsbawm, was repellent to the unaligned voter. When Labour called its 2005 manifesto Forward Not Back I mocked the banality. I now realise that the alternative is what we have this year: Back Not Forward.

There is only one success story in Labour history. Attlee, Wilson and Blair all ran on a theme of modernisation, summed up in the title of the 1945 manifesto Let Us Face The Future. Nothing else works. In the 26 general elections since universal suffrage, Labour has had a majority of more than ten seats in just five of them. The only leader to win three such majorities was Tony Blair. If you are a Labour supporter and you don’t like Blair, then the onus is on you to find another way. Blair found his third way. You haven’t discovered your first.

It is obvious from Mr Corbyn’s campaign visits to safe seats in Manchester and Salford that he isn’t even trying.

This manifesto is Labour marching backwards into battle. It is not a suicide note. It is a request to be allowed to go to Dignitas. There is a lot of fevered speculation about a new party because Emmanuel Macron upset the old order in France. It’s all half-baked and half-witted. A new party will either work in Britain or it won’t; France is another country and they do things differently there. We have an electoral system that does not allow terminally ill parties to die. If Mr Corbyn hangs on after defeat, Labour will probably have to split. But it will do so without enthusiasm, as a last resort. A successful new venture needs excitement and verve; this is a catatonic, beaten organisation. The manifesto is a marker of decline but the real fight will start soon, the minute this inconvenient election is out of the way. A spectre is haunting the Labour Party. The spectre of irrelevance."

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

As someone on the modernist wing of labour HR, what do you think will happen - a split?

Would you advocate it?

I know paddy ashdown always championed an alignment of lib dems and the 'right' of labour?

[High-On-Hibs]

Elections in the UK are becoming far more like the US. Labours manifesto is irrelevant. The vast majority of voters won't even bother to read any of the party manifestos. Instead, they're sucked in by the leader who can repeat the same soundbite over and over again, which Theresa May is particularly "skilled" at.

The tories are going to win this election by an extreme landslide, without really making many manifesto commitments at all. This should make people very worried.

[Hibbyradge]

Elections in the UK are becoming far more like the US. Labours manifesto is irrelevant. The vast majority of voters won't even bother to read any of the party manifestos.

That's been the case for decades.

[Mr Grieves]

Oh, it's dirty alright. Theresa May blatantly lying about the Scottish Nationalists being fined over election expenses

[Stranraer]

I was expecting much more coverage of the Tories election expenses scandal from the BBC. I tend to watch Channel 4 News which is less bias.

[ronaldo7]

I was expecting much more coverage of the Tories election expenses scandal from the BBC. I tend to watch Channel 4 News which is less bias.

Channel 4 have done the best coverage of the Tories election scandal imo, with Michael Crick leading the way. :aok:

[Stranraer]

Channel 4 have done the best coverage of the Tories election scandal imo, with Michael Crick leading the way. :aok:

Would I be right in saying that Channel 4 were involved in the initial investigation into it?

[JimBHibees]

I was expecting much more coverage of the Tories election expenses scandal from the BBC. I tend to watch Channel 4 News which is less bias.

Only news coverage worth watching IMO.

[ronaldo7]

Would I be right in saying that Channel 4 were involved in the initial investigation into it?

:agree:

[lucky]

I love the Labour manifesto, what I've read about it. Great stuff. Then I take a look at what has come out of Scottish Labour today and it's all about the SNP/indyref and nothing positive about what they'd actually do.

Then I read coverage of what some of their MPs or spokespeople are saying - likes of Brown, Darling, others - who can bring themselves to get behind it and back JC for PM.

Scottish Labours manifesto has not been agreed yet. Meeting taking place in Tuesday evening. Details will be released next week

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Interesting article here- hopefully it has some truth to it

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/14/theresa-may-victory-must-not-get-in-way-clear-ideology

[mjhibby]

I just wish that we could fast forward a few weeks and cut out this incredibly tedious electioneering. May will get her majority of about 80 and will be able to control the backbenchers which is what the election is all about. Labour vote will be up a couple of per cent in % of the vote so our Jeremy will cling on and claim he is moving the labour party forwards the tories will gain and handful of seats and the snp will lose a few in scotland and we will have the status quo with may refusing indyref2. Unless labour gets an electable leader ( David milliband) then it will be like groundhog day where the Tory party machine scares voters off the labour party.vits the way it works now with no real debates on anything. Democracy my Erse.

[Moulin Yarns]

There are now so many threads it is difficult to know what has already been posted. Apologies if this is already elsewhere.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39928846


Is she saying all of these were wrong?


G Washington a patriot
P Pearse a patriot
M Gandhi a patriot
Simon Bolivar a patriot
William Wallace a patriot
All wanted independence!

[Hibbyradge]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39992892

[Hibrandenburg]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39992892

"Prominent pacifist refuses to lay blame at the door of one party in the conflict in the hope of maintaining peace"! Although I think Labour have completely lost the plot I have to feel sorry for him on this.

[snooky]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-40056693

I think I'll be voting for Ava in an election 20 years from now.

[heretoday]

I just wish that we could fast forward a few weeks and cut out this incredibly tedious electioneering. May will get her majority of about 80 and will be able to control the backbenchers which is what the election is all about. Labour vote will be up a couple of per cent in % of the vote so our Jeremy will cling on and claim he is moving the labour party forwards the tories will gain and handful of seats and the snp will lose a few in scotland and we will have the status quo with may refusing indyref2. Unless labour gets an electable leader ( David milliband) then it will be like groundhog day where the Tory party machine scares voters off the labour party.vits the way it works now with no real debates on anything. Democracy my Erse.

I think Labour will do better than that but May will still have a majority. You're right about Scotland.

[ronaldo7]

Residents in North Lanarkshire get two postal vote envelopes for the GE.

https://t.co/VKjfIzM416

[JeMeSouviens]

Tories must be crapping themselves now ... :wink:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e5/Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png/850px-Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png

[High-On-Hibs]

Tories must be crapping themselves now ... :wink:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e5/Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png/850px-Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png

If people would stop clowning around with the lib dems, it would be a sure thing.

[Colr]

Tories must be crapping themselves now ... :wink:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e5/Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png/850px-Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png

Times says the gap is 5% and could result in a Tory majority of 2 seats which would place her judgement on calling an election on a par with Cameron's Brexit call. They would be utterly donald ducked.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Times says the gap is 5% and could result in a Tory majority of 2 seats which would place her judgement on calling an election on a par with Cameron's Brexit call. They would be utterly donald ducked.

It really has been a disastrous campaign for them, and yet again shows just how unpredictable politics is at the moment.

Even of she wins now, she is going to appear very, very weak.

Bet she wishes she had done a gordon brown now and not bothered.

[JeMeSouviens]

Times says the gap is 5% and could result in a Tory majority of 2 seats which would place her judgement on calling an election on a par with Cameron's Brexit call. They would be utterly donald ducked.

There are still good polls for the Tories as well. Britain Elects rolling average has them 10.5% ahead. Mind you, that's down from almost 20% when the campaign started.

If they lose their majority I might die laughing. :greengrin

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Times says the gap is 5% and could result in a Tory majority of 2 seats which would place her judgement on calling an election on a par with Cameron's Brexit call. They would be utterly donald ducked.

I think calling the election is less the problem than just doing a really bad job at fighting the election. A good campaign, fronted by a good campaigner amd they would still be winning comfortably.

[Colr]

I think calling the election is less the problem than just doing a really bad job at fighting the election. A good campaign, fronted by a good campaigner amd they would still be winning comfortably.

Boris is making a total tit out of himself, Davis comes across as a sleezeball, Damian Green was embarrassing, May is robotic. I can't think of anyone whose doing well for them at all.

Labour have Dianne Abbott but otherwise seem to be getting a message across and are looking more credible as they go on.

I predict a mega project fear type panic ahead.

[pacoluna]

Boris is making a total tit out of himself, Davis comes across as a sleezeball, Damian Green was embarrassing, May is robotic. I can't think of anyone whose doing well for them at all.

Labour have Dianne Abbott but otherwise seem to be getting a message across and are looking more credible as they go on.

I predict a mega project fear type panic ahead.

You forgot Fallon.

[Colr]

You forgot Fallon.

I'm trying to!

[High-On-Hibs]

It really has been a disastrous campaign for them, and yet again shows just how unpredictable politics is at the moment.

Even of she wins now, she is going to appear very, very weak.

Bet she wishes she had done a gordon brown now and not bothered.

Can't help thinking that this awful campaign is entirely deliberate. I don't think any party could perform this badly by accident. Perhaps they've had a major fall out with brussels? Or realize that the economy is ****ed? So are trying to pass on the burden?

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Can't help thinking that this awful campaign is entirely deliberate. I don't think any party could perform this badly by accident. Perhaps they've had a major fall out with brussels? Or realize that the economy is ****ed? So are trying to pass on the burden?

Really?? You love a conspiracy theory eh!

Nah, i do think it has just been THAT bad. Interesting to see if they try and pivot their campaign.

Come on, a manifesto with no noteworthy give away, just a brutally realistic plan to deal with a looming crisis. I do admire her for trying to grasp the nettle on that, its a convo we seriously need to have as a society, but for that to be your main headline item, come on. Actually their manifesto is really interesting in the sense it sets out a wholr new focus for toryism, bit a dull manifesto peddled by a dull campaigner is a bad recipe.

I think they will now be hoping to stem losses, sneak back with a majority far smaller than they would like and hope to buggery that she proves a lot more effective in office than she has been campaigning for it.

[High-On-Hibs]

SNP on course to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament according to latest yougov poll. :cbWonder if they'll be forced to rig it in favour of the Conservatives again?

https://image.ibb.co/fU7jqv/yougov_poll.png

[snooky]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tx3hrpDCct8&feature=share&app=desktop

No matter who you're voting for, you should listen to this.
Pray tell me if there are any discrepancies in what this man is saying.
TBH, I really hope he is telling porkies because if he isn't well, it's the crime of the century.

[ronaldo7]

This young lassie moved to Scotland only a month ago, and has get the election to a tee, so much so she's voting SNP.:greengrin

https://squintyayeanglo.wordpress.com/2017/05/30/why-the-snp-are-not-obsessed-with-independence/

[Hibbyradge]

If people would stop clowning around with the lib dems, it would be a sure thing.

I'm voting Libdem to stop the Tory.

[Hibbyradge]

From the Guardian today;

What to make of the Times/YouGov seat projection that puts May short of an overall majority? The modelling pushes the Tories down to 310 seats from the 330 they held before dissolution; gives Labour 257, up from 229; and awards the Lib Dems an extra seat, taking them to 10.

The prediction would leave the SNP with 50 of the 54 seats they are defending; Plaid Cymru and the Greens would stay as they were, on three and one. (There is no breakdown for Northern Ireland seats.) The takeaway? The Tories would be 16 seats away from a Commons majority.

Amazing. I've ordered the humble pie.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

From the Guardian today;

What to make of the Times/YouGov seat projection that puts May short of an overall majority? The modelling pushes the Tories down to 310 seats from the 330 they held before dissolution; gives Labour 257, up from 229; and awards the Lib Dems an extra seat, taking them to 10.

The prediction would leave the SNP with 50 of the 54 seats they are defending; Plaid Cymru and the Greens would stay as they were, on three and one. (There is no breakdown for Northern Ireland seats.) The takeaway? The Tories would be 16 seats away from a Commons majority.

Amazing. I've ordered the humble pie.


I just read that too, but it continues to say the methodology is new, and not loved by everyone so maybe its a bit dubious.

[Moulin Yarns]

From the Guardian today;

What to make of the Times/YouGov seat projection that puts May short of an overall majority? The modelling pushes the Tories down to 310 seats from the 330 they held before dissolution; gives Labour 257, up from 229; and awards the Lib Dems an extra seat, taking them to 10.

The prediction would leave the SNP with 50 of the 54 seats they are defending; Plaid Cymru and the Greens would stay as they were, on three and one. (There is no breakdown for Northern Ireland seats.) The takeaway? The Tories would be 16 seats away from a Commons majority.

Amazing. I've ordered the humble pie.

Remember, this is 1 week from the election, a very similar situation to the independence referendum where the 1 poll a week before the referendum showed a win for the yes side. I am taking it with a huge pinch of salt.

[JeMeSouviens]

Remember, this is 1 week from the election, a very similar situation to the independence referendum where the 1 poll a week before the referendum showed a win for the yes side. I am taking it with a huge pinch of salt.

:agree: I just said the same thing on the other thread. It's got the establishment scare poll klaxon going off. :wink:

[Hibernia&Alba]

:agree: I just said the same thing on the other thread. It's got the establishment scare poll klaxon going off. :wink:

:agree:

Make sure the Tory vote isn't complacent but turns out. I don't believe it for a second; the Tories will have a comfortable majority.

[JeMeSouviens]

New Ipsos-MORI Scotland only poll:

SNP 43%
Lab 25%
Con 25%
Lib 5%
Green 1%
UKIP 1%

Suggests the Corbyn surge is taking some votes back from the Tories. Good news for the SNP here, the more even the Unionist split is the better.

Edit: they also asked the Indy q and got Y 47 N 53

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

:agree:

Make sure the Tory vote isn't complacent but turns out. I don't believe it for a second; the Tories will have a comfortable majority.

Spoke to someone involved with the scottish tories, amd funnily enough that was their take (not based on insider knowledge, just an impression)

[High-On-Hibs]

I'm voting Libdem to stop the Tory.

How well has that one worked for you in the past?

[High-On-Hibs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tx3hrpDCct8&feature=share&app=desktop

No matter who you're voting for, you should listen to this.
Pray tell me if there are any discrepancies in what this man is saying.
TBH, I really hope he is telling porkies because if he isn't well, it's the crime of the century.

It's deeply worrying. But as is always the case, not enough people will be aware of it until it is already too late.

[Colr]

Corbyn to take part in theleaders debate!!

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Corbyn to take part in theleaders debate!!

Good decision - he did so well the other night, he has nothing to fear from them.

[snooky]

It's deeply worrying. But as is always the case, not enough people will be aware of it until it is already too late.

Actually, it's bloody terrifying and really deserves a thread of its own to let people know what's happening.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tx3hrpDCct8&feature=share

[Colr]

Actually, it's bloody terrifying and really deserves a thread of its own to let people know what's happening.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tx3hrpDCct8&feature=share

Not sure what's terrifying about it. What's really scarey is the amount of un-used or not-fit-for-purpose property that exists in the NHS costing a fortune and delivering little and that they are not managing their estate to generate funds for re-investment. Much of that is because the government will take back any receipts they generate (Scottish Parliament will do this too) rather than allow them to re-invest locally.

There's a great National Audit Ofiice report from a few years back which reported on how appaulling estate management in the public sector is carried out generally. The UK government reportedly made quite substantial savings from rationalising its London estate a few years back.

[snooky]

Not sure what's terrifying about it. What's really scarey is the amount of un-used or not-fit-for-purpose property that exists in the NHS costing a fortune and delivering little and that they are not managing their estate to generate funds for re-investment. Much of that is because the government will take back any receipts they generate (Scottish Parliament will do this too) rather than allow them to re-invest locally.

There's a great National Audit Ofiice report from a few years back which reported on how appaulling estate management in the public sector is carried out generally. The UK government reportedly made quite substantial savings from rationalising its London estate a few years back.

Good points you highlight there, Colr, nevertheless, I still don't trust those bees. If I thought for a moment that acting on this Report was really for the benefit of the NHS and all who sail in her then I would be 100% for it. As it is, I see it as the noose awaiting our Health Service's neck.

[Colr]

Good points you highlight there, Colr, nevertheless, I still don't trust those bees. If I thought for a moment that acting on this Report was really for the benefit of the NHS and all who sail in her then I would be 100% for it. As it is, I see it as the noose awaiting our Health Service's neck.

Well, you're right not to trust them. The public sector temds to be very bad at this kind of stuff. Middle ranking officers tend to not have the skills required and are rather afraid to do the wrong thing so they make a 5 course meal out of the whole thing which means to bidders tend to be restricted to ones with deep pockets and contacts who will stitch up a favourable deal for themselves due to a lack of genuine competition. Politicians are especially clueless about real estate.

I can't work out whether their accelerated approach smells more of exasperation or panic!

[Hibbyradge]

How well has that one worked for you in the past?

It's always worked apart from when I lived in Edinburgh Central when I voted Labour.

[The Harp Awakes]

This young lassie moved to Scotland only a month ago, and has get the election to a tee, so much so she's voting SNP.:greengrin

https://squintyayeanglo.wordpress.com/2017/05/30/why-the-snp-are-not-obsessed-with-independence/

The reality is folk aren't daft. Every time Willie Rennie and Ruth Davidson pop up on TV referring to the SNP banging on about indyref2, I think it does their GE election campaign damage. Everyone must be saying to themselves, hang on a minute it's only you 2 referring to indyref2 not the SNP. They're taking the electorate as asses.

[BroxburnHibee]

I can't believe anyone pays attention to the polls after the last few years.

[Bristolhibby]

I'm voting Libdem to stop the Tory.

Snap

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

The reality is folk aren't daft. Every time Willie Rennie and Ruth Davidson pop up on TV referring to the SNP banging on about indyref2, I think it does their GE election campaign damage. Everyone must be saying to themselves, hang on a minute it's only you 2 referring to indyref2 not the SNP. They're taking the electorate as asses.

Its on p3 of the SNP manifesto, a vote for the snp is a vote for another ref on independence.

Also political parties test their lines extensively, they wouldnt be saying it if it wasnt working, esp the tories who will be doing their own extensive polling and focus groups, adjusting their messages accordingly.

[lucky]

I think calling the election is less the problem than just doing a really bad job at fighting the election. A good campaign, fronted by a good campaigner amd they would still be winning comfortably.

Which Labour has, lots thought JC was wrong to support the calling of the election in fact the SNP abstained (some opposition that). Corbyn has had a good campaign and the manifesto has been well received. If Labour can keep it going you just never know. I suspect there maybe one or two shocks in Scotland come the 9th June.

[marinello59]

The reality is folk aren't daft. Every time Willie Rennie and Ruth Davidson pop up on TV referring to the SNP banging on about indyref2, I think it does their GE election campaign damage. Everyone must be saying to themselves, hang on a minute it's only you 2 referring to indyref2 not the SNP. They're taking the electorate as asses.

Unlike the SNP who have said that a vote for them is a vote for Indyref2 but nobody else should mention it. I say the more that it's discussed the better, the arguments for Indendence are strong. It's thoroughly depressing that the SNP are the ones shouting down debate on this.

[easty]

Its on p3 of the SNP manifesto, a vote for the snp is a vote for another ref on independence.

Also political parties test their lines extensively, they wouldnt be saying it if it wasnt working, esp the tories who will be doing their own extensive polling and focus groups, adjusting their messages accordingly.

Aye, but a ref doesn't mean independence. It's a vote on independence. I don't understand why so many are against Indy ref 2, yet will happily bang on about how Yes was so comprehensively beaten last time out. Accept there's going to be a vote, and use your vote.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Aye, but a ref doesn't mean independence. It's a vote on independence. I don't understand why so many are against Indy ref 2, yet will happily bang on about how Yes was so comprehensively beaten last time out. Accept there's going to be a vote, and use your vote.

This has been done to death. Im not putting forward a view, i was just trying to explain to the poster why they are hammering that line.

[steakbake]

Which Labour has, lots thought JC was wrong to support the calling of the election in fact the SNP abstained (some opposition that). Corbyn has had a good campaign and the manifesto has been well received. If Labour can keep it going you just never know. I suspect there maybe one or two shocks in Scotland come the 9th June.

Personally, yes - I thought it was wrong to back the call for the election initially and better to let the call fail, damage May and see how she could limp on with the electoral commission breathing down the necks of 30 of her MPs. They were cleared by the police, but they were still fined by the Electoral Commission. Anyway, I've changed my view, but only because it is looking potentially far closer than anyone could have imagined likely just a few weeks ago.

I'm pretty sure that some seats will change hands. In the early hours of next Friday morning, we'll have Ruth, Kezia and Willie crowing about tides turning, unpopular SNP etc etc. But past the inevitable spin, it'll be a bit like hearing a Hearts fan being delighted they were only pumped 6-2 because the last time out it was 7-0.

I just don't know what will happen and there's quite a few different factors this time out. Many seats are a 4 horse race, with Greens, SSP pulling out of all but a few. Harvie has a decent shout in Glasgow North if the young vote comes out in big enough numbers. However, it could easily split the vote and hand it Labour. Orkney/Shetland is apparently looking shaky for the LibDems for the first time in 40 years. Will Mundell hold on in D&G? Will Berwickshire go Tory (I think it will), possibly Perth. At one time, a couple of seats in the NE looked shaky including Robertson and Salmond but I think they may have enough to see it out.

I don't know what will happen in East Renfrewshire and there may be a couple here and there which flip. I just don't know about Ian Murray - possibly increase his majority on the back of anti-Tory votes or could the Greens and SSP not standing hand those votes to the SNP which would take them over the line if he doesn't increase his share?

Best case scenario for the SNP is to hold all and add 2 but I really doubt even in a fair wind, they'd manage that. A bad night - maybe down to the low 40s. Any neutral observer looking in would still recognise that as a pretty solid mandate.

I stuck a tenner on a hung parliament at 15-1 a few weeks ago. It would take a huge number of the young vote and irregular voters to come out and make that happen. I really hope they do because this election probably feels like the most important one I've ever lived through. It would have been helpful had Labour backed Corbyn more solidly for the past two years, but in a strange kind of way, having had the kitchen sink thrown at him his opponents really have no ammunition left. Classic rope-a-dope politics! I would love it if May gambled and ended up floored.

Interestingly in my seat, I got a direct mailing from Labour yesterday from Patsy King - not a single mention of independence, indyref or anything like that and all very much about social democratic policies.

I like the Labour manifesto - I have actually leafed through it and like many of the policies. I have actually considered voting for them, but it's the tone of the party here in Scotland which actually puts me off.

[Hibbyradge]

It's always worked apart from when I lived in Edinburgh Central when I voted Labour.

To clarify: I started voting Liberal in Edinburgh West in 1987 after they very nearly unseated Lord James Douglas Hamilton in 83 when Foot's Labour party were slaughtered.

It was 10 years before the tactic worked, but the Tories have never held the seat since.

I voted for Michelle Thompson in 20!5.

York Central should be held by Labour who have a good MP and the backing of the Greens who withdrew their candidate.

York Outer is more complicated. There is a sitting Tory MP, and while Labour were 2nd last time, I was told by a very active Labour activist in York Central, that the best way to beat him on the 8th is to vote Libdem.

I'll be checking that again before I cast my vote.

[Moulin Yarns]

To clarify: I started voting Liberal in Edinburgh West in 1987 after they very nearly unseated Lord James Douglas Hamilton in 83 when Foot's Labour party were slaughtered.

It was 10 years before the tactic worked, but the Tories have never held the seat since.

I voted for Michelle Thompson in 20!5.

York Central should be held by Labour who have a good MP and the backing of the Greens who withdrew their candidate.

York Outer is more complicated. There is a sitting Tory MP, and while Labour were 2nd last time, I was told by a very active Labour activist in York Central, that the best way to beat him on the 8th is to vote Libdem.

I'll be checking that again before I cast my vote.

Looking very much like Tory in York Outer.

https://dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com/Storyboard/RHViewStoryBoard.aspx?RId=%c2%b2&RLId=%c2%b2&PId=%c2%b1%c2%b4%c2%ba%c2%b5%c2%b4&UId=%c2%b4%c2%b9%c2%b9%c2%b9%c2%bc&RpId=2


Anyone can put in their constituency to see a projection.

[JeMeSouviens]

Personally, yes - I thought it was wrong to back the call for the election initially and better to let the call fail, damage May and see how she could limp on with the electoral commission breathing down the necks of 30 of her MPs. They were cleared by the police, but they were still fined by the Electoral Commission. Anyway, I've changed my view, but only because it is looking potentially far closer than anyone could have imagined likely just a few weeks ago.

I'm pretty sure that some seats will change hands. In the early hours of next Friday morning, we'll have Ruth, Kezia and Willie crowing about tides turning, unpopular SNP etc etc. But past the inevitable spin, it'll be a bit like hearing a Hearts fan being delighted they were only pumped 6-2 because the last time out it was 7-0.

I just don't know what will happen and there's quite a few different factors this time out. Many seats are a 4 horse race, with Greens, SSP pulling out of all but a few. Harvie has a decent shout in Glasgow North if the young vote comes out in big enough numbers. However, it could easily split the vote and hand it Labour. Orkney/Shetland is apparently looking shaky for the LibDems for the first time in 40 years. Will Mundell hold on in D&G? Will Berwickshire go Tory (I think it will), possibly Perth. At one time, a couple of seats in the NE looked shaky including Robertson and Salmond but I think they may have enough to see it out.

I don't know what will happen in East Renfrewshire and there may be a couple here and there which flip. I just don't know about Ian Murray - possibly increase his majority on the back of anti-Tory votes or could the Greens and SSP not standing hand those votes to the SNP which would take them over the line if he doesn't increase his share?

Best case scenario for the SNP is to hold all and add 2 but I really doubt even in a fair wind, they'd manage that. A bad night - maybe down to the low 40s. Any neutral observer looking in would still recognise that as a pretty solid mandate.

I stuck a tenner on a hung parliament at 15-1 a few weeks ago. It would take a huge number of the young vote and irregular voters to come out and make that happen. I really hope they do because this election probably feels like the most important one I've ever lived through. It would have been helpful had Labour backed Corbyn more solidly for the past two years, but in a strange kind of way, having had the kitchen sink thrown at him his opponents really have no ammunition left. Classic rope-a-dope politics! I would love it if May gambled and ended up floored.

Interestingly in my seat, I got a direct mailing from Labour yesterday from Patsy King - not a single mention of independence, indyref or anything like that and all very much about social democratic policies.

I like the Labour manifesto - I have actually leafed through it and like many of the policies. I have actually considered voting for them, but it's the tone of the party here in Scotland which actually puts me off.

If I lived outside Scotland I'd vote Labour for the policies, even though I have grave doubts about the ability of Corbyn & co to deliver.

[Hibbyradge]

Looking very much like Tory in York Outer.

https://dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com/Storyboard/RHViewStoryBoard.aspx?RId=%c2%b2&RLId=%c2%b2&PId=%c2%b1%c2%b4%c2%ba%c2%b5%c2%b4&UId=%c2%b4%c2%b9%c2%b9%c2%b9%c2%bc&RpId=2


Anyone can put in their constituency to see a projection.

I've seen that, but my preferred option is to attempt to vote tactically. If that's for Labour, all the better.

Or, given that it's probably a safe Tory seat, I might just try to help those nice Greens save their deposit. :wink:

[steakbake]

If I lived outside Scotland I'd vote Labour for the policies, even though I have grave doubts about the ability of Corbyn & co to deliver.

Except in Cornwall, where I'd definitely vote Mebyon Kernow. haha

[JeMeSouviens]

Except in Cornwall, where I'd definitely vote Mebyon Kernow. haha

<scooby>

Who?

</scooby>

[Moulin Yarns]

<scooby>

Who?

</scooby>

Cornish National Party. :wink:

[JeMeSouviens]

Opinion polling is quite interesting in that there's a much bigger divergence than usual between polling firms, eg.

ICM last 4 polls show con leads of 20,14,12,12
Yougov polls with similar fieldwork dates 13,9,7,3

All the pollsters show the Tory lead shrinking. The difference is mainly down to adjustments they're making for turnout. Yougov is much more optimistic about how many younger voters will actually turn out. Also ICM are attempting to allocate people who refuse to answer based on research they did on people in 2015 who refused to answer but subsequently told them how they voted.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

The Economist has today backed the lib dems.

I thought it was a bit odd, bit after reading excepts in the guardian election section, they make a lot of sense.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Opinion polling is quite interesting in that there's a much bigger divergence than usual between polling firms, eg.

ICM last 4 polls show con leads of 20,14,12,12
Yougov polls with similar fieldwork dates 13,9,7,3

All the pollsters show the Tory lead shrinking. The difference is mainly down to adjustments they're making for turnout. Yougov is much more optimistic about how many younger voters will actually turn out. Also ICM are attempting to allocate people who refuse to answer based on research they did on people in 2015 who refused to answer but subsequently told them how they voted.

Im trying not to take too much notice - like you say, there is surely no doubt that the gap has closed, as gaps usually do in campaigns, bit when they start predicting seats etc, its finger in the wind stuff.

Are there scheduled to be exit polls this time? The BBC's last time was very accurate, i still remember alastair campbell's face!

[JeMeSouviens]

Im trying not to take too much notice - like you say, there is surely no doubt that the gap has closed, as gaps usually do in campaigns, bit when they start predicting seats etc, its finger in the wind stuff.

Are there scheduled to be exit polls this time? The BBC's last time was very accurate, i still remember alastair campbell's face!

Without polls there would be no sense of a Corbyn surge, May wouldn't be anywhere near as rattled and it all might be playing out very differently.

It would be fascinating to have an election where opinion polling was banned altogether.

[JeMeSouviens]

Cornish National Party. :wink:

I thought it might be, but you never know, there might've been a Mrs Kernow standing in St Ives?

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Without polls there would be no sense of a Corbyn surge, May wouldn't be anywhere near as rattled and it all might be playing out very differently.

It would be fascinating to have an election where opinion polling was banned altogether.

Youre right, i meant too much notice of their specifics - trends, absolutely.

Indeed, probably very low turnout for this one given the impression of an inevitable landlside at the outset

[snooky]

Cornish National Party. :wink:

:cool2: For a moment I thought that read "Cornish National Pasty"

[Moulin Yarns]

:cool2: For a moment I thought that read "Cornish National Pasty"

All their members are upper crust :wink:

[ronaldo7]

Money must be tight. Unionist parties diverting their cash to target seats.

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390070-unionist-parties-working-against-snp-in-key-seats/

[marinello59]

Money must be tight. Unionist parties diverting their cash to target seats.

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390070-unionist-parties-working-against-snp-in-key-seats/

What's new there then? All political parties including the SNP do exactly the same, they target their resources carefully. The Greens are doing the same thing but on a different scale.

[ronaldo7]

What's new there then? All political parties including the SNP do exactly the same, they target their resources carefully. The Greens are doing the same thing but on a different scale.

Greens stepping aside for the SNP, and Labour stepping aside for the Tories. Nothing new there.:wink:

[marinello59]

Greens stepping aside for the SNP, and Labour stepping aside for the Tories. Nothing new there.:wink:

Except Labour isn't stepping aside for the Tories and the Greens aren't stepping aside for the SNP, both parties have vehemently denied that. I quite liked Dugdale's response to be fair. Targeting resources really is nothing new.

[lucky]

Greens stepping aside for the SNP, and Labour stepping aside for the Tories. Nothing new there.:wink:

50% correct. There is no in hell Labour would move aside for the Tories. Most Labour see the Tories as the political enemy of the working class. The Nats are a pain but no way would many Labour members/voters choose to bit Tory to beat the SNP. The Nats can't will the election but Labour can

[snooky]

50% correct. There is no in hell Labour would move aside for the Tories. Most Labour see the Tories as the political enemy of the working class. The Nats are a pain but no way would many Labour members/voters choose to bit Tory to beat the SNP. The Nats can't will the election but Labour can
Shouldn't that be "all" or "almost all"? "Most" could mean 51%. Just saying like. :cool2:

[Moulin Yarns]

http://www.cps.gov.uk/news/latest_news/cps-statement-election-expenses/

[JeMeSouviens]

New poll out from Ipsos-MORI, Tory lead down to 5.

Con 45 (-4)
Lab 40 (+6)

And that's after turnout weighting, on the raw numbers, Lab were actually +3 ahead!

[Glory Lurker]

Labour and Lib Dems going easy in Tory target seats increases chances of Tories winning overall election, instead of splitting anti-SNP vote and keeping them out. Looks pretty clear to me who Lab and Lib Dems prefer

[marinello59]

Labour and Lib Dems going easy in Tory target seats increases chances of Tories winning overall election, instead of splitting anti-SNP vote and keeping them out. Looks pretty clear to me who Lab and Lib Dems prefer

That's not what is happening, it's a lie. . It will be a convenient excuse if the SNP do lose seats to the Tories though, they can blame the other parties instead of themselves.

[JeMeSouviens]

That's not what is happening, it's a lie. . It will be a convenient excuse if the SNP do lose seats to the Tories though, they can blame the other parties instead of themselves.

It's being reported that way by STV, quoting Labour sources, hardly a hotbed of nat propaganda?

[marinello59]

It's being reported that way by STV, quoting Labour sources, hardly a hotbed of nat propaganda?

That's not true either. They quoted an anonymous Conservative source which was convenient. Kezia Dugdale denied it straightaway. I believe her just as I believe Patrick Harvie when he denied that the Greens were giving the SNP a clear run in most seats. As in every other election I can remember it's a question of resources where funds have to be targetted, if there is no chance of winning then the funds will be less than there is available elsewhere. I guess it's easier for some to believe it's true rather than confront the real reasons they may lose some seats but it's nowt to do with any other party but the SNP themselves.

[Colr]

Worth a read

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21722855-leaders-both-main-parties-have-turned-away-decades-old-vision-open-liberal?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/thebritishelectionthemiddlehasfallenoutofbritishpo litics

[Glory Lurker]

That's not what is happening, it's a lie. . It will be a convenient excuse if the SNP do lose seats to the Tories though, they can blame the other parties instead of themselves.

Hmmmm. So labour and the lib dems can only afford to target one or two seats? We're in a unique situation where the largest party has almost all the seats. Losses to labour and Lib Dems don't affect the Tories, but losses to the Tories directly increase their chance of staying in power. If that was a big issue for the lib dems and labour, I'd have thought they would try to stymie Tory gains as well as beat the SNP in a couple or so other seats each.

[marinello59]

Hmmmm. So labour and the lib dems can only afford to target one or two seats? We're in a unique situation where the largest party has almost all the seats. Losses to labour and Lib Dems don't affect the Tories, but losses to the Tories directly increase their chance of staying in power. If that was a big issue for the lib dems and labour, I'd have thought they would try to stymie Tory gains as well as beat the SNP in a couple or so other seats each.

That's quite a spin to put on what I said. :greengrin
Whether the SNP hold on to seats or not is entirely in their own hands. The unholy rush to get excuses in early in pretty amusing though.
I can't see many seats changing hands in Scotland and when the dust has settled the SNP will still have by far the largest number. The share of the vote may be interesting though.

[GlesgaeHibby]

New poll out from Ipsos-MORI, Tory lead down to 5.

Con 45 (-4)
Lab 40 (+6)

And that's after turnout weighting, on the raw numbers, Lab were actually +3 ahead!

You gov also reckon labour are taking Amber Rudd's seat

[marinello59]

You gov also reckon labour are taking Amber Rudd's seat

That would be a Portillo moment. :greengrin

[Glory Lurker]

That's quite a spin to put on what I said. :greengrin
Whether the SNP hold on to seats or not is entirely in their own hands. The unholy rush to get excuses in early in pretty amusing though.
I can't see many seats changing hands in Scotland and when the dust has settled the SNP will still have by far the largest number. The share of the vote may be interesting though.

You started it with replying to me with comments that didn't relate to what I'd actually said :na na:

Where am I making excuses? I am questioning why they don't seem too fussed about trying to stop the Tories increasing their number of seats. The situation we are looking at has never existed before. Every seat bar one held by the opposition. Seat swaps between the opposition are irrelevant in the big picture. Seats gained by the government are huge, yet only the SNP seem bothered enough to do anything about that.

If the SNP lose seats, they lose seats. That's life. If an increase in Tory seats in Scotland contributes to them staying in power though, and the rest of the "opposition" effectively lets it happen, that's unforgivable.

[marinello59]

You started it with replying to me with comments that didn't relate to what I'd actually said :na na:

Where am I making excuses? I am questioning why they don't seem too fussed about trying to stop the Tories increasing their number of seats. The situation we are looking at has never existed before. Every seat bar one held by the opposition. Seat swaps between the opposition are irrelevant in the big picture. Seats gained by the government are huge, yet only the SNP seem bothered enough to do anything about that.

If the SNP lose seats, they lose seats. That's life. If an increase in Tory seats in Scotland contributes to them staying in power though, and the rest of the "opposition" effectively lets it happen, that's unforgivable.

I#m not saying you are making excuses. Some will refuse to accept that it's totally down to the SNP to retain their seats. Sturgeon has come out to night and siad voters have a clear choice between the SNP and the Tories. If they lose any seats to the Tories it because of their own failures, nobody elses.
You honestly don't think members of the Labour movement are motivated to beat the Tories especially when there is a slim chance of getting them out of Government? Suggesting that only the SNP are bothered is quite an astonishing claim to make. The reality is the SNP are so dominant making any gains in Scotland for Labour just now is practically impossible.

[Glory Lurker]

I#m not saying you are making excuses. Some will refuse to accept that it's totally down to the SNP to retain their seats. Sturgeon has come out to night and siad voters have a clear choice between the SNP and the Tories. If they lose any seats to the Tories it because of their own failures, nobody elses.
You honestly don't think members of the Labour movement are motivated to beat the Tories especially when there is a slim chance of getting them out of Government? Suggesting that only the SNP are bothered is quite an astonishing claim to make. The reality is the SNP are so dominant making any gains in Scotland for Labour just now is practically impossible.

My whole point is that in the seats the Tories are likely to gain, Labour and the Lib Dems seem content to let it happen when I would have thought it would be more in their interests to hold their noses, try a bit, maybe split the anti SNP vote and prevent a Tory +1.

Anyway, here we are, the opposition bickering among themselves. Theresa May, who I know is a Keichback lurker on here, will be loving it. :greengrin

[ronaldo7]

I see the PM was visiting Edinburgh today, she was in Granton, surrounded by around 100 invited activists, in a removals warehouse. :greengrin

The fear is strong with Theresa. https://t.co/bbEDGJDMbK