"Opinion polls are biased" and other myths

[Hibbyradge]

I've noticed more and more people on Twitter, mainly Corbynistas and Momentum members it has to be said, arguing thst the polls are "fake news" or biased against Labour.

This is a very informative piece which busts those, and other, polling myths.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9868

[Smartie]

I'm really not a fan of anything that Donald Trump says or does.

The one thing I do like that he has done (accidentally of course) is to raise the subject of "fake news". I don't think it is a bad thing at all to have us all questioning our sources - newspapers, tv stations, people - we need to question the accuracy of statements and challenge the authenticity of everything.

It is good to question opinion polls too, and that is an interesting piece.

[JeMeSouviens]

If anything, UK polls tend to show a bias *towards* Labour, 1992 and 2015 being famous examples.

[Hibbyradge]

If anything, UK polls tend to show a bias *towards* Labour, 1992 and 2015 being famous examples.

Yrs, the article makes that point too.

[Colr]

I've noticed more and more people on Twitter, mainly Corbynistas and Momentum members it has to be said, arguing thst the polls are "fake news" or biased against Labour.

This is a very informative piece which busts those, and other, polling myths.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9868

No doubt the current council elections are biased against them as well!!

[Hibbyradge]

No doubt the current council elections are biased against them as well!!

Indeed.

Pesky electorate. No brains to think for themselves, just mindlessly following the right wing media's hateful campaign against the righteous Jeremy Corbyn.

[Pretty Boy]

Indeed.

Pesky electorate. No brains to think for themselves, just mindlessly following the right wing media's hateful campaign against the righteous Jeremy Corbyn.

That would be funny if it wasn't so scarily close to the actual bleatings coming from the direction of Corbyns supporters.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Opinion polls arent biased, but a lot of them never see the light of day if they dont support the view of the publishing party/paper/website etc

[Hibbyradge]

Opinion polls arent biased, but a lot of them never see the light of day if they dont support the view of the publishing party/paper/website etc

True.

A lot of polls are commissioned by the parties themselves who will publicise them if it suits their agenda.

Needless to say, we've not seen any from Labour in about 2 years.

[judas]

There's still a generation that comes to work every day with a tabloid under its arm.

Of those I know, do I think they are heavily influenced by the headlines? Yes I do.

I think you give the working class too much credit for its ability to think independently. And that's not the swipe it appears to be, most working people I know don't have the time to find and critically appraise the available data. They rely on easily digestable pieces of prose.

There is a train of thought that newspapers (and the wider media) detect which way the wind is blowing and go with it and another that says the media is largely directed by the vested interests of its wealthy ownership.

[Colr]

True.

A lot of polls are commissioned by the parties themselves who will publicise them if it suits their agenda.

Needless to say, we've not seen any from Labour in about 2 years.

I think Jez just asks his mates down the community centre and they tell him he's doing great!

[Hibbyradge]

I think you give the working class too much credit for its ability to think independently. And that's not the swipe it appears to be, most working people I know don't have the time to find and critically appraise the available data. They rely on easily digestable pieces of prose.



I couldn't disagree more strongly.

Working class people are just as intelligent as any other class.

Working class people are just as busy, or not, as other classes.

The media does have influence, I grant you, but that's on all classes. The Daily Mail, for example, is read by people from all walks of life.

If the media was so all powerful, why didn't Cameron win an outright majority in 2010, and why did he secure such a slim one in 2015?

[Colr]

i couldn't disagree more strongly.

Working class people are just as intelligent as any other class.

Working class people are just as busy, or not, as other classes.

The media does have influence, i grant you, but that's on all classes. The daily mail, for example, is read by people from all walks if life.

If the media was so all powerful, why didn't cameron win an outright majority in 2010, and why did he secure such a slim one in 2015?

well said!

[lord bunberry]

There's still a generation that comes to work every day with a tabloid under its arm.

Of those I know, do I think they are heavily influenced by the headlines? Yes I do.

I think you give the working class too much credit for its ability to think independently. And that's not the swipe it appears to be, most working people I know don't have the time to find and critically appraise the available data. They rely on easily digestable pieces of prose.

There is a train of thought that newspapers (and the wider media) detect which way the wind is blowing and go with it and another that says the media is largely directed by the vested interests of its wealthy ownership.
I consider myself to be working class and I tend to move in the circles of working class people and I find your post to be completely wide of the mark, bordering on insulting. I've found myself at many family parties or nights out debating politicts. You seem to be suggesting that working class people don't have the intelligence to make an informed decision at the ballot box because we have such a hectic schedule. I really don't know where to start with that. I pick my daughter up from school and spend a few hours with her before her mother comes home. I then go to work and do a 12 hour shift. I repeat this 5 or 6 days a week and I still have time to get the lowdown on what's happening in the country and also the world. I don't buy a newspaper anymore, but just because someone does it doesn't make them any less qualified to make their own mind up about things.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

So, people dont vote how i vote = they are stupid.

Thats really not great analysis mate

[High-On-Hibs]

The problem with polls is that the general outcome of the poll can be controlled by the way in which the questions are presented. For example, a poll asking a straight question about Scottish Independence shows that around 55% still oppose independence. But if you frame the question as Scotland being in the European Union verses Scotland in the UK under another term of majority tory rule, then independence from the UK comes out as a clear favourite.

We rarely get all of the details on exactly how polls have been conducted. Media outlets that support a particular view use this lack of information to their advantage to claim that they know exactly what the general public wants. It's a powerful tool, because it can be used to influence public opinion as well. People tend to side on what they believe to be the majority view.

[High-On-Hibs]

I consider myself to be working class and I tend to move in the circles of working class people and I find your post to be completely wide of the mark, bordering on insulting. I've found myself at many family parties or nights out debating politicts. You seem to be suggesting that working class people don't have the intelligence to make an informed decision at the ballot box because we have such a hectic schedule. I really don't know where to start with that. I pick my daughter up from school and spend a few hours with her before her mother comes home. I then go to work and do a 12 hour shift. I repeat this 5 or 6 days a week and I still have time to get the lowdown on what's happening in the country and also the world. I don't buy a newspaper anymore, but just because someone does it doesn't make them any less qualified to make their own mind up about things.

I think the point being made is that sometimes you need more than just the lowdown. I've found myself being misled on numerous occasions until I really get my head into the nitty gritty details. Once you commit yourself to knowing absolutely as much as you possibly can about certain things, it can open your eyes to a whole different world.

[bigwheel]

Here is an article explaining the level Of sophisticated targeting of people and communities to influence elections here and around the globe ... very well written and a story that is largely being ignored across traditional media ..

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy?CMP=twt_gu

[Hibbyradge]

Here is an article explaining the level Of sophisticated targeting of people and communities to influence elections here and around the globe ... very well written and a story that is largely being ignored across traditional media ..

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy?CMP=twt_gu

That's a lengthy, but extremely well researched article whuch has left me with feelings of unease and anger.

[lord bunberry]

I think the point being made is that sometimes you need more than just the lowdown. I've found myself being misled on numerous occasions until I really get my head into the nitty gritty details. Once you commit yourself to knowing absolutely as much as you possibly can about certain things, it can open your eyes to a whole different world.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with that, but I don't see how being working class makes you unable to commit yourself. There's plenty uneducated middle class voters out there.

[Hibbyradge]

Try telling ex- miner, Brian Tatton, that he's making an uneducated choice.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/this-town-has-been-labour-since-1919-its-about-to-switch-to?utm_term=.ab1Wn3eg#.oozpqB46

[Colr]

Here is an article explaining the level Of sophisticated targeting of people and communities to influence elections here and around the globe ... very well written and a story that is largely being ignored across traditional media ..

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy?CMP=twt_gu

Its an interesting article but its suggests tareted marketing rather than wholesale election rigging. Not sure there much in it other than the fact that the right have been quicker that the wooly headed progressives in getting there message out.

Labour keep complaining that they aren't getting their voice heard but they are using approaches from the pre-New Labour era in one that is much, much more sophisticated.

[Hibrandenburg]

Try telling ex- miner, Brian Tatton, that he's making an uneducated choice.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/this-town-has-been-labour-since-1919-its-about-to-switch-to?utm_term=.ab1Wn3eg#.oozpqB46

I was nodding my head to you until I read further and was swayed back to the opinion that some vote according to what they're spoon fed. Amanda Geegan convinced me.

[Hibbyradge]

I was nodding my head to you until I read further and was swayed back to the opinion that some vote according to what they're spoon fed. Amanda Geegan convinced me.

Well, at least she's decided not to vote UKIP next month.

Of course there are people who vote without giving the issues a lot of thought - Labour has benefited from exactly that mentally in its heartlands for decades - but the suggestion that people only vote Tory because they're uneducated or illinformed is as eroneous as it is insulting.

You can start nodding again. :agree: :greengrin

[HiBremian]

Try telling ex- miner, Brian Tatton, that he's making an uneducated choice.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/this-town-has-been-labour-since-1919-its-about-to-switch-to?utm_term=.ab1Wn3eg#.oozpqB46

Interesting article. The return of the conservative working class, as it describes, is very much thanks to UKIP blaming all our troubles on the EU and foreigners. Once that line is swallowed, it's relatively easy for the Tories to wave the union flag, adopt the UKIP mantle, and harvest the votes. Much as I loathe the leader cult so loved by the media - not that May has any more "leadership qualities" than Corbyn - Labour and Momentum still need someone - or a team - that can relate to the average voter. Many of their policies address the core reasons for voter discontent. But they're failing to get the message across.

People compare Corbyn to Foot. I prefer comparing him to Attlee. Equally anonymous and lacking in personality, yet won a landslide, and brought us the NHS and welfare state. And this was against Churchill, not May. It seems that voters are less able in 2017 to see beyond vacuous stuff like "strong and stable leadership" than in 1945. Or did Attlee have a team of spin doctors to match that of Blair?


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[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Interesting article. The return of the conservative working class, as it describes, is very much thanks to UKIP blaming all our troubles on the EU and foreigners. Once that line is swallowed, it's relatively easy for the Tories to wave the union flag, adopt the UKIP mantle, and harvest the votes. Much as I loathe the leader cult so loved by the media - not that May has any more "leadership qualities" than Corbyn - Labour and Momentum still need someone - or a team - that can relate to the average voter. Many of their policies address the core reasons for voter discontent. But they're failing to get the message across.

People compare Corbyn to Foot. I prefer comparing him to Attlee. Equally anonymous and lacking in personality, yet won a landslide, and brought us the NHS and welfare state. And this was against Churchill, not May. It seems that voters are less able in 2017 to see beyond vacuous stuff like "strong and stable leadership" than in 1945. Or did Attlee have a team of spin doctors to match that of Blair?


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Really? Comparing Corbyn to one of the two most influential post war PMs? That seems like quite a leap.

[HiBremian]

Really? Comparing Corbyn to one of the two most influential post war PMs? That seems like quite a leap.

Churchill famously said "An empty taxi stopped outside the House of Commons and Clement Attlee stepped out". He was regarded as a weak nobody who was only keeping the seat warm for someone with "leadership qualities" like Mandelson's grandad. On top of that, his party's election platform was attacked by Churchill as leading to "some kind of Gestapo". But the electorate in 1945 wanted the policies of the Labour Party. Corbyn's policies are tame by comparison. Yet he is painted as a wild extremist. And a useless leader.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Churchill famously said "An empty taxi stopped outside the House of Commons and Clement Attlee stepped out". He was regarded as a weak nobody who was only keeping the seat warm for someone with "leadership qualities" like Mandelson's grandad. On top of that, his party's election platform was attacked by Churchill as leading to "some kind of Gestapo". But the electorate in 1945 wanted the policies of the Labour Party. Corbyn's policies are tame by comparison. Yet he is painted as a wild extremist. And a useless leader.

Fair enough, but was atlee not in the war cabinet and an established front bencher?

Anyway, time will tell, but he is not a good leader. The fact he is completely failing to lead his party is evidence of this.

[judas]

I couldn't disagree more strongly.

Working class people are just as intelligent as any other class.

Working class people are just as busy, or not, as other classes.

The media does have influence, I grant you, but that's on all classes. The Daily Mail, for example, is read by people from all walks of life.

If the media was so all powerful, why didn't Cameron win an outright majority in 2010, and why did he secure such a slim one in 2015?

Working class people, in general, aren't as intelligent as other classes. The average manual skilled worker is not as intelligent as the average GP.

I would also say that the working class (the working poor in particular) would be less likely to enjoy many of the holiday entitlements or free time enjoyed by other classes. I know quite a few working class people who are doing two jobs – they eat, work, sleep and spend what time they can with the kids - and that’s about it. But, I admit that link may be tenuous and worthy perhaps of further investigation.

Not sure about your reference to Camerons wins (he did win after all), but I admit that there are other better examples in which the main media sources have been biased but the result has stacked up surprisingly well for the neglected (i.e. anti Brexit BBC Bias and anti ‘Yes’ Bias by pretty much all printed media and the BBC). One could argue that online content, which is less regulated, is counterbalancing more established sources.

[Hibby Bairn]

Interesting article. The return of the conservative working class, as it describes, is very much thanks to UKIP blaming all our troubles on the EU and foreigners. Once that line is swallowed, it's relatively easy for the Tories to wave the union flag, adopt the UKIP mantle, and harvest the votes. Much as I loathe the leader cult so loved by the media - not that May has any more "leadership qualities" than Corbyn - Labour and Momentum still need someone - or a team - that can relate to the average voter. Many of their policies address the core reasons for voter discontent. But they're failing to get the message across.

People compare Corbyn to Foot. I prefer comparing him to Attlee. Equally anonymous and lacking in personality, yet won a landslide, and brought us the NHS and welfare state. And this was against Churchill, not May. It seems that voters are less able in 2017 to see beyond vacuous stuff like "strong and stable leadership" than in 1945. Or did Attlee have a team of spin doctors to match that of Blair?


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I agree with the Attlee comparison. And also the underbelly in the UK who want real change (and the need for it in society...which needs massive changes to many big issues...NHS, Social Care, Eldery Care etc.).

Sometimes great leaders recognise this and help facilitate it rather than having to be the deliverer or charismatic mouthpiece. Corbyn's problem is that he doesn't really have the talent alongside him that Attlee had.

[McD]

Working class people, in general, aren't as intelligent as other classes. The average manual skilled worker is not as intelligent as the average GP.

I would also say that the working class (the working poor in particular) would be less likely to enjoy many of the holiday entitlements or free time enjoyed by other classes. I know quite a few working class people who are doing two jobs – they eat, work, sleep and spend what time they can with the kids - and that’s about it. But, I admit that link may be tenuous and worthy perhaps of further investigation.

Not sure about your reference to Camerons wins (he did win after all), but I admit that there are other better examples in which the main media sources have been biased but the result has stacked up surprisingly well for the neglected (i.e. anti Brexit BBC Bias and anti ‘Yes’ Bias by pretty much all printed media and the BBC). One could argue that online content, which is less regulated, is counterbalancing more established sources.


the first sentence, do you have any proof of this?

Second sentence, that's most likely true, but what proof is there that the doctor didn't come from a working class upbringing?

[Colr]

the first sentence, do you have any proof of this?

Second sentence, that's most likely true, but what proof is there that the doctor didn't come from a working class upbringing?

Indeed. Many Working class people do not get the opportunities to develop the skills and intelligence they are born with and fall behind from an early age.

If the statement was true there wouldn't be any social mobility at all, systematic comstraints mean there is much less than there should be - to the detriment of the economy!

[judas]

the first sentence, do you have any proof of this?

Second sentence, that's most likely true, but what proof is there that the doctor didn't come from a working class upbringing?

There has been plenty of research carried out this field (see links below). But, I’m surprised you require proof. Is it really your contention that there is generally no intellectual difference between the average manual skilled worker and the average GP? Logical deduction should inform you otherwise.

http://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/occupations.aspx

http://anepigone.blogspot.co.uk/2011/01/average-iq-by-occupation-estimated-from.html

There’s a couple of interesting papers here too:

Earl Hunt (July 1995). "The Role of Intelligence in Modern Society (July-Aug, 1995)". American Scientist. pp. 4 (Nonlinearities in Intelligence). Archived from the original on May 21, 2006.

Coward, W. Mark; Sackett, Paul R. (1990). "Linearity of ability-performance relationships: A reconfirmation". Journal of Applied Psychology. 75 (3): 297–300. doi:10.1037/0021-9010.75.3.297.

Regarding your last point, I’m not arguing that a Working Class person can’t become a GP.

But as this person becomes a doctor, he becomes Middle Class. And this brings me back to the original simple point; that working class people, in general, aren't as intelligent as other classes.

Ofcourse, one could argue robustly (and again in general terms), that the child of a manual worker is inherently less intelligent than that of a GP. But I think that would be too much for some people and no doubt it would be misinterpreted.

I would add, that I am from a working class family and I regard myself as working class.

[Geo_1875]

There has been plenty of research carried out this field (see links below). But, I’m surprised you require proof. Is it really your contention that there is generally no intellectual difference between the average manual skilled worker and the average GP? Logical deduction should inform you otherwise.

http://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/occupations.aspx

http://anepigone.blogspot.co.uk/2011/01/average-iq-by-occupation-estimated-from.html

There’s a couple of interesting papers here too:

Earl Hunt (July 1995). "The Role of Intelligence in Modern Society (July-Aug, 1995)". American Scientist. pp. 4 (Nonlinearities in Intelligence). Archived from the original on May 21, 2006.

Coward, W. Mark; Sackett, Paul R. (1990). "Linearity of ability-performance relationships: A reconfirmation". Journal of Applied Psychology. 75 (3): 297–300. doi:10.1037/0021-9010.75.3.297.

Regarding your last point, I’m not arguing that a Working Class person can’t become a GP.

But as this person becomes a doctor, he becomes Middle Class. And this brings me back to the original simple point; that working class people, in general, aren't as intelligent as other classes.

Ofcourse, one could argue robustly (and again in general terms), that the child of a manual worker is inherently less intelligent than that of a GP. But I think that would be too much for some people and no doubt it would be misinterpreted.

I would add, that I am from a working class family and I regard myself as working class.

Depends what age your talking about but definitely not inherently in early years. It's only when nurture takes over from nature that any differences appear.

[judas]

Depends what age your talking about but definitely not inherently in early years. It's only when nurture takes over from nature that any differences appear.

I disagree.

On average, a child born to parent with a high IQ, will have a higher IQ than that of a child born to parents of low IQ, all other things being equal.

[Hibrandenburg]

I disagree.

On average, a child born to parent with a high IQ, will have a higher IQ than that of a child born to parents of low IQ, all other things being equal.

Supposedly intelligence in inherited from the mother. :hmmm:

[McD]

There has been plenty of research carried out this field (see links below). But, I’m surprised you require proof. Is it really your contention that there is generally no intellectual difference between the average manual skilled worker and the average GP? Logical deduction should inform you otherwise.

http://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/occupations.aspx

http://anepigone.blogspot.co.uk/2011/01/average-iq-by-occupation-estimated-from.html

There’s a couple of interesting papers here too:

Earl Hunt (July 1995). "The Role of Intelligence in Modern Society (July-Aug, 1995)". American Scientist. pp. 4 (Nonlinearities in Intelligence). Archived from the original on May 21, 2006.

Coward, W. Mark; Sackett, Paul R. (1990). "Linearity of ability-performance relationships: A reconfirmation". Journal of Applied Psychology. 75 (3): 297–300. doi:10.1037/0021-9010.75.3.297.

Regarding your last point, I’m not arguing that a Working Class person can’t become a GP.

But as this person becomes a doctor, he becomes Middle Class. And this brings me back to the original simple point; that working class people, in general, aren't as intelligent as other classes.

Ofcourse, one could argue robustly (and again in general terms), that the child of a manual worker is inherently less intelligent than that of a GP. But I think that would be too much for some people and no doubt it would be misinterpreted.

I would add, that I am from a working class family and I regard myself as working class.

that's not what you said. You said working class were generally not as intelligent as upper class. That was what I asked if you had proof for. I said it's most likely true that the average manual skilled worker was less intelligent than the average GP. So no, that's not my contention at all, I think there's been some confusion between the posts :greengrin


I'm also from a working class family, and very much regard myself as working class also (something I have picked up from my parents, particularly my father).

speaking from my own experience (which carries no weight whatsoever in comparison to the research :greengrin), I was brought up in a working class area, went to a working class state school populated mostly by kids of similar means. There were a strong proportion of my peers (several years in either direction) who were highly intelligent and went on to jobs that reflected that. Equally there was a similar proportion who would be classed as less intelligent. Coupled to that, there were some families of significantly higher means, some of whom sent their children to fee paying schools, who would, in my estimation, fall into similar proportions of those categories. I'd also say that for many of the poorer children, there seemed a greater motivation for bettering themselves, to some degree or another.

all that said, I don't actually think we're that far apart in views, I think my last post may have come across as sounding more harsh or argumentative than intended, so my apologies.


I disagree.

On average, a child born to parent with a high IQ, will have a higher IQ than that of a child born to parents of low IQ, all other things being equal.

this I absolutely agree with

[Pretty Boy]

https://digitalsynopsis.com/inspiration/privileged-kids-on-a-plate-pencilsword-toby-morris/

[Colr]

I disagree.

On average, a child born to parent with a high IQ, will have a higher IQ than that of a child born to parents of low IQ, all other things being equal.

Since when were all other things equal?

[SanFranHibs]

Since when were all other things equal?

And I am still trying to work out how 'On average' is logical here. I must be really working class.


:greengrin

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

I dont think there is anything inherently inferior about working class intellect at birth (bit i dont know so stand to be corrected), but apparently stimulation and attentiob at a infancy amd through early years are major factors.

I dont think its a class thing, ad much as just a bad parent thing/ ignorance thing.

Education is the key, and our universal education sysyem is very important, hence the alarm at falling standards.

I know the SG do try amd focus on early years intervention, but it seems to me an area that is uniquely difficult one for a government to intervene with a legislative solution. If parent x doesnt see a balue im reading amd has never read a book, why would they make the effort to read to their child?