The consequences of Scottish independence for the remainder of the UK

[Hibernia&Alba]

What effect do you think a Yes vote in any second referendum would have upon the constitutional position of the rest of the UK? I'm thinking specifically of Northern Ireland here. The demographics are changing in the six counties, and it looks only a matter of time before there is a nationalist majority. Sinn Fein could soon be the largest party. Would Scottish independence hasten a united Ireland? How would a union of only England and Wales be viable?

[NAE NOOKIE]

What effect do you think a Yes vote in any second referendum would have upon the constitutional position of the rest of the UK? I'm thinking specifically of Northern Ireland here. The demographics are changing in the six counties, and it looks only a matter of time before there is a nationalist majority. Sinn Fein could soon be the largest party. Would Scottish independence hasten a united Ireland? How would a union of only England and Wales be viable?

I don't know about Wales, they are so tied into England the only real difference between the two countries is the accent ... the Welsh have never shown any enthusiasm for independence, in fact they have never even made much of a fuss over the fact that they're not even represented in the union flag ... that pretty well tells you everything you need to know about Wales .... If a big percentage of Scots are 90 minute nationalists a hell of a bigger percentage of the Welsh population are 80 minute nationalists.

Things are different in Northern Ireland ... I read an article a few decades ago that the difference in birth rate between the Catholic and Protestant communities would inevitably lead to a republican majority in the future. When that day comes the population and politicians of the Irish Republic will wring their hands and howl at the prospect of a Northern Irish referendum ending in a positive vote for re uniting the 6 counties with the south ...... in that situation I can see no scenario in which the looney loyalists, of which there are many I've no doubt, wouldn't resort to the bomb and the bullet .... the UK took decades to bring the mess in N Ireland to some semblance of order with 100 times the resources of the Irish Republic.

I've no doubt 99.9% of southern Irish would like to see a united Ireland, but I'm also willing to bet that 90% of southern Irish wouldn't be prepared to accept the grief that would come with it in order to see it happen.

[snooky]

What effect do you think a Yes vote in any second referendum would have upon the constitutional position of the rest of the UK? I'm thinking specifically of Northern Ireland here. The demographics are changing in the six counties, and it looks only a matter of time before there is a nationalist majority. Sinn Fein could soon be the largest party. Would Scottish independence hasten a united Ireland? How would a union of only England and Wales be viable?

The schoolyard bully will look around and have almost nobody left to beat up.
Oh dear, poor Wales.

[JeMeSouviens]

What effect do you think a Yes vote in any second referendum would have upon the constitutional position of the rest of the UK? I'm thinking specifically of Northern Ireland here. The demographics are changing in the six counties, and it looks only a matter of time before there is a nationalist majority. Sinn Fein could soon be the largest party. Would Scottish independence hasten a united Ireland? How would a union of only England and Wales be viable?

It might be considered a pedantic point but there was no Act of Union between England & Wales. Scotland and England voluntarily signed up to a treaty of Union (albeit not exactly democratically). Wales is a conquered territory.


In 1283 the English, led by Edward I, with the biggest army brought together in England since the 11th century, conquered the remainder of Wales, then organised as the Principality of Wales, which was united with the English crown by the Statute of Rhuddlan of 1284. This aimed to replace Welsh criminal law with English law.

Welsh law continued to be used for civil cases until the annexation of Wales to England in the 16th century. The Laws in Wales Acts 1535–1542 then consolidated the administration of all the Welsh territories and incorporated them fully into the legal system of the Kingdom of England.

That's what it would revert to plus NI of course.which (as Ireland) was united with GB in 1801.

[beensaidbefore]

I read somewhere that the leader of plaid cymru is going to look into this very matter. Was either Scotsman online or metro this morning, can't quite remember.

Exploring where this would leave them. Que labour and tories with a list of reasons its not even worth considering!

[High-On-Hibs]

I reckon it would hurt England the most. Because if Scotland leaves, you can expect Northern Ireland to soon follow, then Wales in the not too distant future.

The term "little England" would be more apt than ever.

[Hibrandenburg]

It'll certainly have an adverse effect on the tories Brexit negotiations with the EU. May can't use whisky exports, natural gas and Scottish fishing rights as bargaining chips because she might not have those chips to use.

[steakbake]

I think that any country is viable, to be honest, it's just a matter of responsibility and ownership of the situation. Countries band together to pool sovereignty and trading areas, but ultimately they are accountable to their own. With the exception of Germany and in the future Ireland and possibly Korea at some point, the natural state of countries is to co-operate, build supra-national bodies etc but not necessarily to unite into new single states.

In my view, all of the nations of these islands would and could be viable, independent states in their own right.

That said, I don't see Wales going for independence, to be honest any time soon. They voted in good number for Brexit and like England generally, that is the direction of travel for people there.

NIreland - if there was a unification referendum, I suspect that unification would edge it but it would be close. I am not sure the fairest way to do it but I suspect that it would have to be a two stage process: a Northern vote first and if unification is passed, a Southern vote to endorse and agree the terms. I cannot see an all-Ireland vote producing anything but a huge constitutional problem.

If we go for it, I think they will. If they go for it first, I hope we'll follow.

Other thoughts: part of the Yes tactic should be to make clear that this is definitively, the last indyref for a defined period of time.

High stakes stuff, but there was a sense in 2014 from a lot of the No voters I spoke to (I campaigned for the Green Yes) is that it was a "no - not yet" or "no, not on these terms" or "I'd like to vote yes, but maybe next time". You did meet a few solid Nevers, but particularly folks my own age and younger who were against independence were a "No but...". I think that bears out in polls but it was definitely a regular situation on the ground.

The Yes side has been preparing for this for the past few years after the defeat in 2014. I want to see a much more serious and focused campaign than the last. Much less reliance on the SNP as the vehicle. Less flags and blue faces and eulogising of SNP politicians: no "Oor Nicola". It must be dispassionate, clear, direct and engaged. The 600 page document which was part election manifesto and part explanatory document should be drastically trimmed to key features: currency, national bank, constitution etc. Everything else is a matter of policy for whoever is the first government in an independent state. I'm looking for far less of the family fun day a la the 2013 Cup Final and far more of the feeling of determination a la the 2016 one.

Ultimately, I think the chances of winning this time are much, much higher.

[snooky]

I think that any country is viable, to be honest, it's just a matter of responsibility and ownership of the situation. Countries band together to pool sovereignty and trading areas, but ultimately they are accountable to their own. With the exception of Germany and in the future Ireland and possibly Korea at some point, the natural state of countries is to co-operate, build supra-national bodies etc but not necessarily to unite into new single states.

In my view, all of the nations of these islands would and could be viable, independent states in their own right.

That said, I don't see Wales going for independence, to be honest any time soon. They voted in good number for Brexit and like England generally, that is the direction of travel for people there.

NIreland - if there was a unification referendum, I suspect that unification would edge it but it would be close. I am not sure the fairest way to do it but I suspect that it would have to be a two stage process: a Northern vote first and if unification is passed, a Southern vote to endorse and agree the terms. I cannot see an all-Ireland vote producing anything but a huge constitutional problem.

If we go for it, I think they will. If they go for it first, I hope we'll follow.

Other thoughts: part of the Yes tactic should be to make clear that this is definitively, the last indyref for a defined period of time.

High stakes stuff, but there was a sense in 2014 from a lot of the No voters I spoke to (I campaigned for the Green Yes) is that it was a "no - not yet" or "no, not on these terms" or "I'd like to vote yes, but maybe next time". You did meet a few solid Nevers, but particularly folks my own age and younger who were against independence were a "No but...". I think that bears out in polls but it was definitely a regular situation on the ground.

The Yes side has been preparing for this for the past few years after the defeat in 2014. I want to see a much more serious and focused campaign than the last. Much less reliance on the SNP as the vehicle. Less flags and blue faces and eulogising of SNP politicians: no "Oor Nicola". It must be dispassionate, clear, direct and engaged. The 600 page document which was part election manifesto and part explanatory document should be drastically trimmed to key features: currency, national bank, constitution etc. Everything else is a matter of policy for whoever is the first government in an independent state. I'm looking for far less of the family fun day a la the 2013 Cup Final and far more of the feeling of determination a la the 2016 one.

Ultimately, I think the chances of winning this time are much, much higher.

Good point however, I'm not against the upspirited campaign. I think it promotes a general feelgood factor.
I agree with you about not having so much reliance on the SNP.
The idea that, as an independent country, things would be very different should be shown to be total nonsense. Things would carry on more or less as is. The only main difference would be Scotland would control it's own resources & finances instead of getting pocket money from England (aka the UK).

As someone said on another post/thread, if we are so much a burden to the UK, why are they not helping us to go?

[Mr White]

I reckon it would hurt England the most. Because if Scotland leaves, you can expect Northern Ireland to soon follow, then Wales in the not too distant future.

The term "little England" would be more apt than ever.

Unlikely. In the extreme.

[Hibernia&Alba]

A consequence of Scottish independence? :wink:


https://youtu.be/kaO4XeHhwo8

[Mr White]

A consequence of Scottish independence? :wink:


https://youtu.be/kaO4XeHhwo8

I'd love it if Paul McCartney's twee simplistic hopes for Irish unity were in any way realistic. But they're not and that won't change regardless of how indyref2 goes I'm afraid.

[Hibernia&Alba]

I'd love it if Paul McCartney's twee simplistic hopes for Irish unity were in any way realistic. But they're not and that won't change regardless of how indyref2 goes I'm afraid.

It will happen, Mr White, and probably sooner rather than later. Nobody can hold back the tide, and the long term trend is for Irish unity. It will inevitably happen at some stage, just as Scottish independence will; the clock can't be turned back. But two questions -

1, Will the Unionists/Loyalists wear it, particularly the extremist nutcases?
2, What type of united Ireland? The vision of Connolly and 1916 or the globalisation vision of the establishment. As Connolly said, it's a waste of time simply swapping British capitalists for Irish capitalists. The end of British involvement must also mean the end of the prevailing system.

[Mr White]

It will happen, Mr White, and probably sooner rather than later. Nobody can hold back the tide, and the long term trend is for Irish unity. It will inevitably happen at some stage, just as Scottish independence will; the clock can't be turned back. But two questions -

1, Will the Unionists/Loyalists wear it, particularly the extremist nutcases?
2, What type of united Ireland? The vision of Connolly and 1916 or the globalisation vision of the establishment. As Connolly said, it's a waste of time simply swapping British capitalists for Irish capitalists.

It won't happen, at least not in my lifetime, I'm certain of that. Of the 4 groups who would have to either agree to it or show majority support

1. The NI population
2. The Westminster government, even after Scottish independence
3. The ROI gov
4. The ROI population

Now 1 and 2 are the main stumbling blocks obviously. Pretty big stumbling blocks but even if they were to somehow magically disappear it's worth taking a closer look at the ROI aspect.

I don't think there's any appetite down there, either in government or amongst the population, to take on the economic weight of supporting rural areas like counties Fermanagh, Armagh or Tyrone nevermind the kind of nutcases you refer to, particularly those in the counties of Down, Antrim and Londonderry.

It's just not going to happen and Scottish independence, if it happens, won't make a blind bit of difference. I wish it could happen btw but I just don't see it.

[Lancs Harp]

I think the only long term stumbling block to United Ireland is the Ulster population or more specifically the Unioinst lobby/side of the divide. I think long ago the UK government would have been willing for a United Ireland if it wasnt for the threat of a unioist back lash for want of a better expression and it hid behind the majority opinion, but as has been stated on here that majority in the North, wil one day be Republican. What then?

[The Harp Awakes]

I don't know about Wales, they are so tied into England the only real difference between the two countries is the accent ... the Welsh have never shown any enthusiasm for independence, in fact they have never even made much of a fuss over the fact that they're not even represented in the union flag ... that pretty well tells you everything you need to know about Wales .... If a big percentage of Scots are 90 minute nationalists a hell of a bigger percentage of the Welsh population are 80 minute nationalists.

Things are different in Northern Ireland ... I read an article a few decades ago that the difference in birth rate between the Catholic and Protestant communities would inevitably lead to a republican majority in the future. When that day comes the population and politicians of the Irish Republic will wring their hands and howl at the prospect of a Northern Irish referendum ending in a positive vote for re uniting the 6 counties with the south ...... in that situation I can see no scenario in which the looney loyalists, of which there are many I've no doubt, wouldn't resort to the bomb and the bullet .... the UK took decades to bring the mess in N Ireland to some semblance of order with 100 times the resources of the Irish Republic.

I've no doubt 99.9% of southern Irish would like to see a united Ireland, but I'm also willing to bet that 90% of southern Irish wouldn't be prepared to accept the grief that would come with it in order to see it happen.

I think you're right about Ireland but not so sure about Wales. Wales is predominantly a Labour supporting country and through time I can't see them putting up with the prospect of decades of Tory Westminster rule as would seem to be on the cards with the Labour party disintegrating. The latter will be become more prominent if Scotland became independent.

In the 1970s and 1980s the SNP in Scotland were nothing more than a protest group which had little support outside the Highlands and Islands. Look at the SNP today. The political map of Scotland is unrecognisable compared to then. The same could happen in Wales through time and the nationalists there already have a decent foothold with Plaid Cymru.

[Hibernia&Alba]

It won't happen, at least not in my lifetime, I'm certain of that. Of the 4 groups who would have to either agree to it or show majority support

1. The NI population
2. The Westminster government, even after Scottish independence
3. The ROI gov
4. The ROI population

Now 1 and 2 are the main stumbling blocks obviously. Pretty big stumbling blocks but even if they were to somehow magically disappear it's worth taking a closer look at the ROI aspect.

I don't think there's any appetite down there, either in government or amongst the population, to take on the economic weight of supporting rural areas like counties Fermanagh, Armagh or Tyrone nevermind the kind of nutcases you refer to, particularly those in the counties of Down, Antrim and Londonderry.

It's just not going to happen and Scottish independence, if it happens, won't make a blind bit of difference. I wish it could happen btw but I just don't see it.

The population of Northern Ireland is the key, and the demographic is changing. If they showed majority support for Irish unity, the Good Friday Agreement dictates that's the trigger for British renouncement of sovereignty, and it's unthinkable any Irish government would reject the democratic mandate. The claim of the ROI over NI was only removed as part of the Good Friday negotiations of 1998. The problem, IMO, is the reaction of hardline Loyalism to said mandate. There must be the real possibility of a return to the troubles, but with the militant minority being the other side.

If the central tenet of the union, that between England and Scotland, breaks, everything else must be thrown into question.

[High-On-Hibs]

Unlikely. In the extreme.

About as unlikely as it was in Scotland 10 years ago.

[Lancs Harp]

Similarly I wouldnt underestimate English nationalism. I'd say if a vote on Scottish Independance went to the whole of the Uk, on the premise of the break up of the union, I think England would vote for the break up.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Similarly I wouldnt underestimate English nationalism. I'd say if a vote on Scottish Independance went to the whole of the Uk, on the premise of the break up of the union, I think England would vote for the break up.

Sadly, English nationalism just now is of the far right, deeply unpleasant kind; not the civic nationalism of the SNP.

[Mr White]

The population of Northern Ireland is the key, and the demographic is changing. If they showed majority support for Irish unity, the Good Friday Agreement dictates that's the trigger for British renouncement of sovereignty, and it's unthinkable any Irish government would reject the democratic mandate. The claim of the ROI over NI was only removed as part of the Good Friday negotiations of 1998. The problem, IMO, is the reaction of hardline Loyalism to said mandate. There must be the real possibility of a return to the troubles, but with the militant minority being the other side.

If the central tenet of the union, that between England and Scotland, breaks, everything else must be thrown into question.

Sorry but that's all too simplistic for me. I've spent a good bit of time in the Republic throughout my life, my mum's family are all down there and I now work for a company based in Co Wicklow. I've never found there to be much desire down there for reunification. Maybe that's because I only know people who are unrepresentative of the wider population, but I don't think so.

What really strikes me about this kind of discussion is the readiness of some to accept a return to violence. I don't care which side feels aggrieved enough to start setting off bombs or firing guns, we've had a mostly workable equalibrium for the last few years. There's never going to be a widely agreed solution to this situation without compromise from both sides. I don't actually think a second Scottish independence referendum will make a huge difference to the situation here, I'm far more concerned about the ramifications of brexit tbh.

[Lancs Harp]

Sadly, English nationalism just now is of the far right, deeply unpleasant kind; not the civic nationalism of the SNP.

I didnt mean it as a far right statement. There is a groundswell of "pro England" south of the border as much as there is a pro Scotland sentiment north of the border on a similar level.

IMO the days of the Union are numbered, the countries that made up the Union want to move in different directions. It served its purpose back in the day but that was then and now is now. Time to move on.

SNP England :wink:

[Mr White]

About as unlikely as it was in Scotland 10 years ago.

I'm going to take a big stab in the dark and say Irish history and recent politics isn't something you've done a lot of reading on. Apologies for the tone but... that's just a ridiculous comparison.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Sorry but that's all too simplistic for me. I've spent a good bit of time in the Republic throughout my life, my mum's family are all down there and I now work for a company based in Co Wicklow. I've never found there to be much desire down there for reunification. Maybe that's because I only know people who are unrepresentative of the wider population, but I don't think so.

What really strikes me about this kind of discussion is the readiness of some to accept a return to violence. I don't care which side feels aggrieved enough to start setting off bombs or firing guns, we've had a mostly workable equalibrium for the last few years. There's never going to be a widely agreed solution to this situation without compromise from both sides. I don't actually think a second Scottish independence referendum will make a huge difference to the situation here, I'm far more concerned about the ramifications of brexit tbh.

Aye, that must be the key stumbling block. The consequences of any end to Northern Ireland's place within the UK are potentially catastrophic: a million unionists who regard themselves as British, some of whom are susceptible to intolerance at the best of times, is a huge worry. Yet they are the same people who have always demanded respect for the wishes of the 'majority', so they would struggle to justify anything other than adherence to respect for the wishes of any new majority in NI. Threats could not be allowed to subvert the democratic will. It's certainly another potential mess.

[ronaldo7]

Saying it how it is. This lassie doesn't mince her words.:greengrin

https://twitter.com/sinnfeinireland/status/841653373069844480

[High-On-Hibs]

I'm going to take a big stab in the dark and say Irish history and recent politics isn't something you've done a lot of reading on. Apologies for the tone but... that's just a ridiculous comparison.

You don't need to study Irish history to get the jist of Irish history. If you went to university to get a degree on Irish history, then i'm afraid it's a wasted one.

You think it's ridiculous because of that history. But history is just that, history. A lot can change very quickly in the modern world.

[Mr White]

Aye, that must be the key stumbling block. The consequences of any end to Northern Ireland's place within the UK are potentially catastrophic: a million unionists who regard themselves as British, some of whom are susceptible to intolerance at the best of times, is a huge worry. Yet they are the same people who have always demanded respect for the wishes of the 'majority', so they would struggle to justify anything other than adherence to respect for the wishes of any new majority in NI. Threats could not be allowed to subvert the democratic will. It's certainly another potential mess.

That's a fair summary actually. I don't think it'll get to that stage any time soon though. The DUP just suffered a poor election by their standards but still hold the most seats despite the recent changes to the number of MLA's and the RHI scandal. This is a party than can hold their share of the vote and keep a leader in place who in most normal political environments would have been thrown to the wolves as the full extent of her involvement in a £450m **** up became public knowledge. They know they've got long term majority support. Which is unfortunate really as they're absolutely abhorrent.

[Mr White]

You don't need to study Irish history to get the jist of Irish history. If you went to university to get a degree on Irish history, then i'm afraid it's a wasted one.

You think it's ridiculous because of that history. But history is just that, history. A lot can change very quickly in the modern world.

We're not talking about the modern world though, we're talking about Northern Ireland.

And anyway I studied carpentry & joinery at college.

Nothing that's happened in Scottish politics in the last 10 years has any similarity to the situation over here and I think it's a ridiculous comparison because of how different the two situations are.

[greenlex]

It's like a flag debate without flags

[pontius pilate]

I'm sure I read that NI had a referendum in the 70's to be a United Ireland that was rejected. Also in the 80's the British government at the time tried to hand sth Armagh back to roi who refused to take it. NI politics and some of the people are basket cases I can't see a United Ireland coming together for at least 30 years or so

[Colr]

I reckon it would hurt England the most. Because if Scotland leaves, you can expect Northern Ireland to soon follow, then Wales in the not too distant future.

The term "little England" would be more apt than ever.

Which is why they should bow to the inevitable and break into 4 seperate states each with an individual parliament but with the House of Lords converted to a UK assembly where we can manage things that we need to manage between us. Each entity can then take or leave its EU status. That's why we need indy ref earlier rather than later. At that point Scotland can decide whether the deal that May's English government is neogtiating on our behalf is acceptable or not.

[snooky]

Which is why they should bow to the inevitable and break into 4 seperate states each with an individual parliament but with the House of Lords converted to a UK assembly where we can manage things that we need to manage between us. Each entity can then take or leave its EU status. That's why we need indy ref earlier rather than later. At that point Scotland can decide whether the deal that May's English government is neogtiating on our behalf is acceptable or not.

:agree: 100% (Except that it's far too sensible).

[ACLeith]

Which is why they should bow to the inevitable and break into 4 seperate states each with an individual parliament but with the House of Lords converted to a UK assembly where we can manage things that we need to manage between us. Each entity can then take or leave its EU status. That's why we need indy ref earlier rather than later. At that point Scotland can decide whether the deal that May's English government is neogtiating on our behalf is acceptable or not.

Which is the basis of a REAL federal system - and not the pretendy one that is suggested now as a non-independence straw to clutch onto. This was the old Liberal party stance before they threw away every principle they believed in and which led to Carmichael and Rennie.

[Geo_1875]

I think it's possible/probable that, in the event of Scottish Independence becoming a reality, a number of HM's more "loyal" subjects will choose to relocate with some choosing Northern Ireland. This would hinder the prospect of Irish reunification for some time, whether by ballot or bullet.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Which is why they should bow to the inevitable and break into 4 seperate states each with an individual parliament but with the House of Lords converted to a UK assembly where we can manage things that we need to manage between us. Each entity can then take or leave its EU status. That's why we need indy ref earlier rather than later. At that point Scotland can decide whether the deal that May's English government is neogtiating on our behalf is acceptable or not.

This is an imaginative idea, but the problem for nationalists in each nation is that such a settlement still falls short of full independence and Irish unification. Of course they could see a federal system as a further stepping stone to full independence, so playing a slightly longer game.