Why is popular support for Scottish independence in decline?

[hibs0666]

Given that we have a Tory government in power, an ineffective opposition and Brexit, why is it that popular support is falling away? What will it it take for it to recover any time soon? Will Sturgeon pay any heed and park any notion of a second referendum in the near-term?

[Moulin Yarns]

Is it?

Where have you seen a poll to support your post?

EDIT: Most recent poll from YouGov is in September.

[Smartie]

Is it in decline?

If it is, it might be that folk are just a bit weary of politics. We've had referendum after referendum, General Election after Scottish election after European election and I suspect that many people - a bit like me - are fed up.

Support for Scottish Independence will always fluctuate. Most opinions will be hardened and unlikely to change but there will be a few who may change opinion depending on circumstance.

I'd be very surprised if support for Scottish Independence is on the decline but I don't think there is a stampede of people wanting to get on board who were previously against it. There are some deeply entrenched barriers to come down before many traditional supporters of either side would join the other but there are many who are probably re-evaluating their circumstances, such as Simon Pia and Henry Macleish. The shift from Unionist Labour to SNP and Independence may seem huge in many people's minds but in reality it isn't - if you're any kind of a socialist, you just need to get your head around a change in opinion re our constitution in order to stand a chance of your beliefs actually coming to pass (if you are a Scottish Labour supporter).

My position - I'd love Scotland to be Independent and if there was a vote tomorrow I'd vote in favour of Independence again. I do respect the vote from 2014 though - and the will of the Scottish people - and I'm not convinced enough has materially changed since then to merit another referendum (I can hear the stamping feet beating down at this comment already) and I'm prepared to work under the current system for a while. There's too much pissing and moaning in the world at the moment about what other people are doing and not anything like enough quietly getting on with things.

[allmodcons]

Is it?

Where have you seen a poll to support your post?

EDIT: Most recent poll from YouGov is in September.

New poll today has it down 0.7% on vote in 2014 at 44%.
Hibs0666 has wet his pants so quickly he's forgotten there is a 3% margin of error.

[JeMeSouviens]

Given that we have a Tory government in power, an ineffective opposition and Brexit, why is it that popular support is falling away? What will it it take for it to recover any time soon? Will Sturgeon pay any heed and park any notion of a second referendum in the near-term?

1. financial risk
2. Scotland generating more money
3. yes she will pay heed, but she will definitely not be publicly conceding Indyref2. It's the only card she has to play in seeking to influence UK Brexit policy in Scotland's interest.

[#FromTheCapital]

New poll today has it down 0.7% on vote in 2014 at 44%.
Hibs0666 has wet his pants so quickly he's forgotten there is a 3% margin of error.

Ok so with the 3% margin of error, that equals somewhere between 43% and 47% support for independence. Not what the SNP would have hoped for given their ramblings over the last 5 months following the Brexit vote.

[Jack]

New poll today has it down 0.7% on vote in 2014 at 44%.
Hibs0666 has wet his pants so quickly he's forgotten there is a 3% margin of error.

And perhaps that polls have failed to predict voting outcomes recently.

Personally I think NS and her team will be looking very carefully at the results of the National Conversation (survey) thing they ran, which closes today, before they say or do much more.

With Brexit and 62% of the Scottish electorate voting to remain I suspect she has enough to irritate HM Government for the time being without having to reveal the results of the survey.

[Smartie]

Honest question - would anyone vote differently to the way they did in 2014? Does anyone know anyone who would vote differently?

My other half's father is a LibDem and he would vote in favour of Independence if we voted again. He was furious about the EU referendum.

Although so far the best thing about the 2014 referendum is the fact that on this occasion it afforded me a smug "well, if you don't like it you know what you should have done" to him.

I think he's the only person I know who would vote differently. The main change has been that people's same view has become more deeply entrenched.

[allmodcons]

1. financial risk
2. Scotland generating more money
3. yes she will pay heed, but she will definitely not be publicly conceding Indyref2. It's the only card she has to play in seeking to influence UK Brexit policy in Scotland's interest.

Indyref 2 will almost certainly happen within the next 2 - 3 years.

The SNP are in a third term, albeit in a minority administration, with a parliamentary majority in favour of Independence.

Can they win a fourth term? Possibly, but what would the pro Independence numbers be like in 2021? It is going to very hard for the party of Government to sustain the level of support they achieved in 2011 and 2016 and, for this reason, I think Indyref 2 will be called well in advance of the 2021 Scottish Election.

Can we win, who knows, I think it's still too close to call. Make no mistake though, for those of us who support the concept of an Independent Scotland, Indyref 2 will draw a line under the matter one way or the other.

[allmodcons]

Ok so with the 3% margin of error, that equals somewhere between 43% and 47% support for independence. Not what the SNP would have hoped for given their ramblings over the last 5 months following the Brexit vote.

Maybe not, but the poll hardly suggests support is "falling away" does it?

[hibs0666]

New poll today has it down 0.7% on vote in 2014 at 44%.
Hibs0666 has wet his pants so quickly he's forgotten there is a 3% margin of error.

What's with the wet my pants crap? I don't wear pants, only thongs, so get your facts straight matey. :wink:

[JeMeSouviens]

What's with the wet my pants crap? I don't wear pants, only thongs, so get your facts straight matey. :wink:

A thong for Europe or Brexit though?

[#FromTheCapital]

Maybe not, but the poll hardly suggests support is "falling away" does it?

I've thought all along that support has pretty much been the same and that the Brexit vote has had little effect on the mindset towards independence. This poll and others definitely suggest that's the case. So I'm just fed up about hearing of Indy 2 when there is absolutely no evidence that the outcome would be different to the 2014 vote.

[hibs0666]

A thong for Europe or Brexit though?

Thongs of love.

[beensaidbefore]

Honest question - would anyone vote differently to the way they did in 2014? Does anyone know anyone who would vote differently?

My other half's father is a LibDem and he would vote in favour of Independence if we voted again. He was furious about the EU referendum.

Although so far the best thing about the 2014 referendum is the fact that on this occasion it afforded me a smug "well, if you don't like it you know what you should have done" to him.

I think he's the only person I know who would vote differently. The main change has been that people's same view has become more deeply entrenched.


I am one of those. Felt very strongly about voting yes, and did so. If another vote was tomorrow I'd vote no. The reason for my change of heart is I am fearful that we would become Europe's lap dog in much the same way as we currently are to England. Let's see what brexit brings and if we ain't happy with the outcome let's ha very another vote then. As it stands we are still in Europe and we have no clue when/if we are actually leaving. The fact we are now being discussed in the same sentence as tory/lab/lib demo is of the back of the yes/no vote and the greater interest in Scottish politics both North and south of the border. Until we know what brexit actually means it's too early to be leaving UK. It could actually work to our advantage, so let's not be too hasty.

[beensaidbefore]

I've thought all along that support has pretty much been the same and that the Brexit vote has had little effect on the mindset towards independence. This poll and others definitely suggest that's the case. So I'm just fed up about hearing of Indy 2 when there is absolutely no evidence that the outcome would be different to the 2014 vote.

It is getting on my tits too. Let's have one conversation with an snp politician without bringing up indy 2. Folk say snp are obsessed, but they constantly ask.

[Pretty Boy]

Honest question - would anyone vote differently to the way they did in 2014? Does anyone know anyone who would vote differently?

My other half's father is a LibDem and he would vote in favour of Independence if we voted again. He was furious about the EU referendum.

Although so far the best thing about the 2014 referendum is the fact that on this occasion it afforded me a smug "well, if you don't like it you know what you should have done" to him.

I think he's the only person I know who would vote differently. The main change has been that people's same view has become more deeply entrenched.

The pretty much reflects my situation.

I know one person who now says he will vote Yes. Everyone else has just become more entrenched in their view (myself included I hasten to add).

I'd probably add that the attitude of a few yes voters/supporters I know probably isn't going to do a lot to win 'hearts and minds' in the event of a future vote.

[lord bunberry]

I wouldn't indulge the op, he's become way beyond tiresome :rolleyes:.

[steakbake]

Honest question - would anyone vote differently to the way they did in 2014? Does anyone know anyone who would vote differently?

My other half's father is a LibDem and he would vote in favour of Independence if we voted again. He was furious about the EU referendum.

Although so far the best thing about the 2014 referendum is the fact that on this occasion it afforded me a smug "well, if you don't like it you know what you should have done" to him.

I think he's the only person I know who would vote differently. The main change has been that people's same view has become more deeply entrenched.

My partner and my parents would vote differently and a couple of soft No voters at work would vote Yes now - but only if it guaranteed at least something like access to the single market or remaining in.

One other thought: had Yes started at 44.3% last time, they'd have been delighted.

[Jack]

I've thought all along that support has pretty much been the same and that the Brexit vote has had little effect on the mindset towards independence. This poll and others definitely suggest that's the case. So I'm just fed up about hearing of Indy 2 when there is absolutely no evidence that the outcome would be different to the 2014 vote.

Quite a clever ploy by the Unionists.

I watched Scottish Questions in Westminster last week. Every non SNP speaker mentioned indyref2 or independence in every statement no matter what the subject. I can't recall any SNP members mentioning it once.

It already seems to be working.

[CropleyWasGod]

If recent elections and referenda have taught us anything, it's that opinion polls are an unreliable method of gauging public opinion.

Sent from my SM-A510F using Tapatalk

[beensaidbefore]

Quite a clever ploy by the Unionists.

I watched Scottish Questions in Westminster last week. Every non SNP speaker mentioned indyref2 or independence in every statement no matter what the subject. I can't recall any SNP members mentioning it once.

It already seems to be working.

Glad you've noticed that too. What they can't seem to understand is that her job is to look after the interests of Scotland, even if that is at the expense of other UK countries. Not sure why it is difficult to get their head round.

[speedy_gonzales]

Glad you've noticed that too. What they can't seem to understand is that her job is to look after the interests of Scotland, even if that is at the expense of other UK countries. Not sure why it is difficult to get their head round.

"even if that is at the expense of other UK countries",,,I'm sure you don't mean that?
I raised this very point in a meeting with the late Bob Crow, 2 months before he passed away. I fully agreed that Scotland and its leaders should always do what is best for the
country,,, but not at the detriment of others within the Union. Pull together, not pull apart. I definitely got the feeling that the RMT's stance was that they would support anything as long as it weakened Westminster.

[#FromTheCapital]

Quite a clever ploy by the Unionists.

I watched Scottish Questions in Westminster last week. Every non SNP speaker mentioned indyref2 or independence in every statement no matter what the subject. I can't recall any SNP members mentioning it once.

It already seems to be working.

So the SNP aren't interested in Indy 2 and it's only the 'unionists' who ever mention it? Ok.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Honest question - would anyone vote differently to the way they did in 2014? Does anyone know anyone who would vote differently?

My other half's father is a LibDem and he would vote in favour of Independence if we voted again. He was furious about the EU referendum.

Although so far the best thing about the 2014 referendum is the fact that on this occasion it afforded me a smug "well, if you don't like it you know what you should have done" to him.

I think he's the only person I know who would vote differently. The main change has been that people's same view has become more deeply entrenched.

I would.

I voted yes in 2014 but woyld vote no now.

Partly because i disagree with the way they went straight from 'respecting' the result to campaigning for anorher ref. I accept yes campaign doing this, i dont accept our government doing it.

Also, im not sure what the point would be anymore. I dont think any scottish govt has done anything remotely readical, they habe all just come up with slightly different ways of spending money. Im no longer convinced it would lead to better governance - im not convinced that those areas of devolved control are performing any better.

Its a bit depressing to be writing that, but despite its early promise and enthusiasm, i think the SNP have not delivered anything like enough and im no longer convinced the huge upheaval would be worth it.

Im not sure about the OP though, im not aware of any significant shift up or down in the polls.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Glad you've noticed that too. What they can't seem to understand is that her job is to look after the interests of Scotland, even if that is at the expense of other UK countries. Not sure why it is difficult to get their head round.

Thats simplistic though.

Her job is to lead the scottish govt, which has power or certain areas, but has no power over others.

There are 56 (?) MPs in the uk parliament, a sec of state, a department of state amd a whole uk govt whose job is also to lool after our interests.

Technically she has no business getting involved in foriegn affairs, something reflected in the level of meetings that she tends to get.

Of course the real politik of the situation is that nobody will stop her, but its not what she is paid for.

[beensaidbefore]

Thats simplistic though.

Her job is to lead the scottish govt, which has power or certain areas, but has no power over others.

There are 56 (?) MPs in the uk parliament, a sec of state, a department of state amd a whole uk govt whose job is also to lool after our interests.

Technically she has no business getting involved in foriegn affairs, something reflected in the level of meetings that she tends to get.

Of course the real politik of the situation is that nobody will stop her, but its not what she is paid for.

I actually agree with you. She needs to start concentrating more on what's going on in Scotland right now, rather than, as you say, sticking her nose into stuff she can't control. I think the SNP have taken their eye off the ball slightly in thenwake of brexit.

[beensaidbefore]

"even if that is at the expense of other UK countries",,,I'm sure you don't mean that?
I raised this very point in a meeting with the late Bob Crow, 2 months before he passed away. I fully agreed that Scotland and its leaders should always do what is best for the
country,,, but not at the detriment of others within the Union. Pull together, not pull apart. I definitely got the feeling that the RMT's stance was that they would support anything as long as it weakened Westminster.

The pie can only be divided in to so many portions. Scotland has been hungry for a long while and I don't see any way of us getting a bigger slice without someone else's slice being smaller. For that reason I expect the SNP to implement whatever policy/tactics necessary to achieve its aim of Scotland getting a better deal.

Im not sure harping on about Indy 2 at this stage of the game is helpful. I figure it is as a reminder that if we don't get a better deal post brexit then we could be off. Until we find out what brexit means I can't see how anyone can seriously consider going independent. That for me would be out the pan into the fire, or possibly even worse. That's why mynyes is now a no.

[stoneyburn hibs]

"even if that is at the expense of other UK countries",,,I'm sure you don't mean that?
I raised this very point in a meeting with the late Bob Crow, 2 months before he passed away. I fully agreed that Scotland and its leaders should always do what is best for the
country,,, but not at the detriment of others within the Union. Pull together, not pull apart. I definitely got the feeling that the RMT's stance was that they would support anything as long as it weakened Westminster.

Pull together, like better together ? The Scottish Governments main objective is Independence. Can't say that I have any problem with them doing things at the expense of other Union countries.

[speedy_gonzales]

Pull together, like better together ? The Scottish Governments main objective is Independence. Can't say that I have any problem with them doing things at the expense of other Union countries.
No, like pull together, pull as in verb, not better as in adjective. Better Together is a motto, these islands are going to have to work together to ensure we get the best out of Brexit.
The Scottish Governments main objective shouldn't be independence, it should be running the country and running it well! I'm more than happy to let other organisations & people like Yes Scotland & Blair Jenkins.
Again though, Scotland pushing for gains at the expense of our neighbours does not sit well with me,,,,feels very much like a Tory ideal. Surely the "interests of Scotland" can be maintained and even bettered without taking from others?

[stoneyburn hibs]

No, like pull together, pull as in verb, not better as in adjective. Better Together is a motto, these islands are going to have to work together to ensure we get the best out of Brexit.
The Scottish Governments main objective shouldn't be independence, it should be running the country and running it well! I'm more than happy to let other organisations & people like Yes Scotland & Blair Jenkins.
Again though, Scotland pushing for gains at the expense of our neighbours does not sit well with me,,,,feels very much like a Tory ideal. Surely the "interests of Scotland" can be maintained and even bettered without taking from others?

The Government are running the country well IMO. The opposition at Holyrood know this, complaining and trying to make a big thing about a few late/broken down trains lately, and trying to get Humza emptied. Scotland at the expense of the rest of the union sits ok with me, who knows ? It may even lead to Independence (oops I said it :greengrin ) , then we shouldn't have to worry as much about upsetting our neighbours.

[hibs0666]

I wouldn't indulge the op, he's become way beyond tiresome :rolleyes:.

Don't read the thread then. Deary me.

[beensaidbefore]

No, like pull together, pull as in verb, not better as in adjective. Better Together is a motto, these islands are going to have to work together to ensure we get the best out of Brexit.
The Scottish Governments main objective shouldn't be independence, it should be running the country and running it well! I'm more than happy to let other organisations & people like Yes Scotland & Blair Jenkins.
Again though, Scotland pushing for gains at the expense of our neighbours does not sit well with me,,,,feels very much like a Tory ideal. Surely the "interests of Scotland" can be maintained and even bettered without taking from others?

Not whilst our hands are tied. That is the whole point. Whilst we are given pocket money we can never truly grow the way we want. That is the elephant in the room.

[beensaidbefore]

Don't read the thread then. Deary me.

Back you up on that. Made the same point on another thread the other night. Too much of this kind of thing on here at the moment. People should just move if they e not interested rather than trying to create an argument.

[Northernhibee]

Honest question - would anyone vote differently to the way they did in 2014? Does anyone know anyone who would vote differently?

My other half's father is a LibDem and he would vote in favour of Independence if we voted again. He was furious about the EU referendum.

Although so far the best thing about the 2014 referendum is the fact that on this occasion it afforded me a smug "well, if you don't like it you know what you should have done" to him.

I think he's the only person I know who would vote differently. The main change has been that people's same view has become more deeply entrenched.


We'd have been out of the EU if we'd voted for independence as well :confused:

To be honest if it is on the decline it's unsurprising. Vague statements of intent is one thing, the actual nitty gritty of how we'd do things is quite another. There's been a chronic lack of detail in the plans of both Sturgeon and Salmond and as people reflect upon it they can see it's all bluff and bluster.

[#FromTheCapital]

Pull together, like better together ? The Scottish Governments main objective is Independence. Can't say that I have any problem with them doing things at the expense of other Union countries.

But, but Nicola Sturgeon said that we're an outward looking and inclusive nation... Surely she wouldn't agree with this stance...

[allmodcons]

We'd have been out of the EU if we'd voted for independence as well :confused:

To be honest if it is on the decline it's unsurprising. Vague statements of intent is one thing, the actual nitty gritty of how we'd do things is quite another. There's been a chronic lack of detail in the plans of both Sturgeon and Salmond and as people reflect upon it they can see it's all bluff and bluster.

You might not have agreed with the White Paper during the Independence Referendum but to refer to a "chronic lack of detail" is just laughable.

Now if you want to talk about Brexit and lack of detail that's another matter!

[allmodcons]

But, but Nicola Sturgeon said that we're an outward looking and inclusive nation... Surely she wouldn't agree with this stance...

A nation can be outward looking and inclusive whilst competing against other countries in the global market.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Not whilst our hands are tied. That is the whole point. Whilst we are given pocket money we can never truly grow the way we want. That is the elephant in the room.

Is it though?

No government will ever be truly independent, there will always be constraints for one reason or another.

I haven't seen enough in those areas of devolved responsibility to suggest decision-making in Edinburgh leads to better decisions, although i do believe they are more accountable. The Scottish Government has lots of powers and could take lots of decisions, but the SNP government have sadly, proved very adept at avoiding big, difficult decisions.

[RyeSloan]

A nation can be outward looking and inclusive whilst competing against other countries in the global market.

But not if its the UK doing that, only an iScotland? Or if it opens its borders to the EU but not the rest of the world? There are many contradictions in the SNP perspective on these things but as others have alluded to I don't think the argument has moved on to any great degree and therefore I'm not surprised at the static polls.

I also think Sturgeon has over played her hand on Brexit but again I think whether you agree on that or not will be pretty much along your current Indy thoughts.

[snooky]

I think if everybody voted the same and there was no shenanigans then the YES would win. :devil: :stirrer: :greengrin :wink:

[BroxburnHibee]

After all that's happened in the past year I can't believe anyone pays attention to these stupid polls.

[#FromTheCapital]

After all that's happened in the past year I can't believe anyone pays attention to these stupid polls.

I think it's different in this case. We have the actual result of 2014 as a starting reference. Polls since then and even since the Brexit vote don't show any significant shift, which is pretty consistent with what many on here are saying anecdotally - there are very few people who have changed their views. It seems that for everyone who has changed from no to yes, there is also someone who has changed from yes to no. The only real change seems to be that people have become more entrenched in the view they held previously.

[allmodcons]

But not if its the UK doing that, only an iScotland? Or if it opens its borders to the EU but not the rest of the world? There are many contradictions in the SNP perspective on these things but as others have alluded to I don't think the argument has moved on to any great degree and therefore I'm not surprised at the static polls.

I also think Sturgeon has over played her hand on Brexit but again I think whether you agree on that or not will be pretty much along your current Indy thoughts.

The UK could be open and inclusive, no doubt about it, but that does not appear to be where we are headed to at this time!

[lyonhibs]

Depending on how Brexit pans out, I'd vote "Yes" in a future Independence referendum. I didn't feel especially bothered either way back in 2014.

Being part of an inclusive and open Europe is more important to me personally than being (or not) part of a Union with Brexit-voting England (London aside) and if independence becomes the only way to give Scotland the best chance of remaining part of Europe - with all the various pillars fully intact - that's what I'd vote for.

[Geo_1875]

Is it though?

No government will ever be truly independent, there will always be constraints for one reason or another.

I haven't seen enough in those areas of devolved responsibility to suggest decision-making in Edinburgh leads to better decisions, although i do believe they are more accountable. The Scottish Government has lots of powers and could take lots of decisions, but the SNP government have sadly, proved very adept at avoiding big, difficult decisions.

Surely you mean adept at avoiding the booby-traps set by Better Together and Smith?

[Moulin Yarns]

I know it's reported in a few papers but I still can't find a YouGov poll on Scottish Independence more recently than September.

[JeMeSouviens]

I know it's reported in a few papers but I still can't find a YouGov poll on Scottish Independence more recently than September.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ditypa75v5/TimesScotlandResults_161129_W.pdf

[ronaldo7]

The Government are running the country well IMO. The opposition at Holyrood know this, complaining and trying to make a big thing about a few late/broken down trains lately, and trying to get Humza emptied. Scotland at the expense of the rest of the union sits ok with me, who knows ? It may even lead to Independence (oops I said it :greengrin ) , then we shouldn't have to worry as much about upsetting our neighbours.

:agree: We're so mince, we're top of our mini league.:greengrin

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/health/scots-enjoy-best-quality-life-britain-say-researchers/

[Sir David Gray]

Hopefully it's a sign that the Scottish public are finally starting to see through Sturgeon and the SNP. I doubt it but you can only hope.

As I have said on here in the past, I think there is a case to be made in favour of Scottish independence but it's not the time for it at the moment and I'm certainly not in favour of the SNP's brand of independence.

Whether there will ever be a pro-independence party in Scotland that I will agree with remains to be seen but for the foreseeable future I'm more than happy with continuing with the Union.

As others have already said, these opinion polls are actually good news for those in favour of independence considering the recent opinion polls we had in the EU referendum and the US Presidential election.

[Glory Lurker]

One poll, particularly when the referendum is possibly years away if it happens at all, does not a unionist summer make. Or something like that.

[snooky]

Hopefully it's a sign that the Scottish public are finally starting to see through Sturgeon and the SNP. I doubt it but you can only hope.

As I have said on here in the past, I think there is a case to be made in favour of Scottish independence but it's not the time for it at the moment and I'm certainly not in favour of the SNP's brand of independence.

Whether there will ever be a pro-independence party in Scotland that I will agree with remains to be seen but for the foreseeable future I'm more than happy with continuing with the Union.

As others have already said, these opinion polls are actually good news for those in favour of independence considering the recent opinion polls we had in the EU referendum and the US Presidential election.

There's a lot more to see through than just the SNP, unless you keep one of your eyes shut, be it the left or the right one. :coffee:

[Holmesdale Hibs]

The best thing for politicians to do now is wait, if there really is less appetite for independence then maybe this is why. If Brexit works out then it would likely be another No vote and if things go tits up then Yes would have a better chance of winning. But people will want to know the outcome of how we leave the EU before another Indy referendum.

In my humble opinion, the EU isn't as popular in Scotland as the referendum results suggest and some peoples main reason for voting Remain was that they weren't for independence and didn't want another Indy referendum.

[Northernhibee]

You might not have agreed with the White Paper during the Independence Referendum but to refer to a "chronic lack of detail" is just laughable.

Now if you want to talk about Brexit and lack of detail that's another matter!

From the laughable economic forecasts to the currency question nobody knows what independence would have meant. Things are no clearer as we speak.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Surely you mean adept at avoiding the booby-traps set by Better Together and Smith?

No i dont mean that.

Everything cant be someone else's fault. A government with a budget on circa 30 bn cant be completely removed of responsibility can they?

And john swinney sat on the smith commission i believe?

[jockodile]

The harsh reality of what Brexit will actually mean will come as a surprise to those who voted for it. I would not be surprised if it ends up as No deal and come back and speak to us in the 2030s.

Scotland attaching to 50m heading for a recession or 500m in recovery. If you strip away the emotion and history and look purely in long term self interest etc.

staying in the UK with no indyref threat and zero/one Tory MP as far as can be seen means we would be an utter irrelevance to Downing street.

People say to me that the deficit, if you believe the figures, is a reason to stay. I think the exact opposite. We have been mismanaged. A big jump required from dependence to indy then ultimately to interdependence but big picture that is where Scotland is heading.

Imo the only question is when.

[Bishop Hibee]

I know a few people who voted No in the Indyref who would vote Yes if it meant staying in the EU. I don't know anyone who has moved from Yes to No. Surely any EU citizen living in Scotland who voted No would vote Yes if there was another referendum? The SNP will have to state their intention on Indyref2 when it becomes clear whether a soft or hard Brexit is the Tories' choice.

[pacoluna]

Giving the momentum the YES campaign gathered Leading into indyref1 I think 44% is a good starting point. As mentioned before I am positive a generational shift will guarantee independence.

[allmodcons]

From the laughable economic forecasts to the currency question nobody knows what independence would have meant. Things are no clearer as we speak.

As a staunch Unionist, you are, of course, entitled to your view.

As my original post stated, you might not have agreed with the White Paper but to refer to a "chronic lack of detail" is just laughable.

I accept we lost the vote but would argue that there was plenty of information put out there during the Independence Referendum for people to make an informed choice.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

As a staunch Unionist, you are, of course, entitled to your view.

As my original post stated, you might not have agreed with the White Paper but to refer to a "chronic lack of detail" is just laughable.

I accept we lost the vote but would argue that there was plenty of information put out there during the Independence Referendum for people to make an informed choice.

Agree there wad plenty, maybe too much, bit the main things were left hanging.

You simply cannot expect anyone who is not a lifelong nat (so 70-80% of voters?) To take a risk with their job, theor pension, the money in their pocket, thwir comfortable affluent lifestyle amd their childrens futures by taking a leap into the dark based on some assurances from people with zero experience is running am economy, and who have a poltical imperative to lie.

The nat strategy has to be about de-risking the leap, which is why i think that they need to do a lot more with the powers they have to both neutralisr opposition by doing a competent job, and bolster amd increase support by showimg that where power lies in Edinburgh, Scotland does better.

Also i can see why people think the young demographic will see thrm over the line in the future, but that demographic is shrinking and i would imagine there is a marked decrease in appetite as younger, more strident types have kids, get good jobs and have other priorities. So i dont think it necessarily follows.

[Moulin Yarns]

Agree there wad plenty, maybe too much, bit the main things were left hanging.

You simply cannot expect anyone who is not a lifelong nat (so 70-80% of voters?) To take a risk with their job, theor pension, the money in their pocket, thwir comfortable affluent lifestyle amd their childrens futures by taking a leap into the dark based on some assurances from people with zero experience is running am economy, and who have a poltical imperative to lie.

The nat strategy has to be about de-risking the leap, which is why i think that they need to do a lot more with the powers they have to both neutralisr opposition by doing a competent job, and bolster amd increase support by showimg that where power lies in Edinburgh, Scotland does better.

Also i can see why people think the young demographic will see thrm over the line in the future, but that demographic is shrinking and i would imagine there is a marked decrease in appetite as younger, more strident types have kids, get good jobs and have other priorities. So i dont think it necessarily follows.

Let's put the bit in bold to bed. THERE WAS NEVER A THREAT TO PENSIONS. However the Better Together camp fooled people with their assertion that people would lose their pension (or should that be lied!!?). I wonder how expats in Spain would feel about that!?

[Smartie]

There was plenty, adequate detail in the White paper.

The Better Together campaign disputed all the detail, sowed confusion and doubt and made it look like the detail was inaccurate.

They were entitled to do so and did so to great effect.

It is wrong to suggest that the proposal lacked detail, particularly when you put it next to the lack of detail/ totally inaccurate detail (£350m for the NHS) of the Brexit campaign.

[allmodcons]

Agree there wad plenty, maybe too much, bit the main things were left hanging.

You simply cannot expect anyone who is not a lifelong nat (so 70-80% of voters?) To take a risk with their job, theor pension, the money in their pocket, thwir comfortable affluent lifestyle amd their childrens futures by taking a leap into the dark based on some assurances from people with zero experience is running am economy, and who have a poltical imperative to lie.

The nat strategy has to be about de-risking the leap, which is why i think that they need to do a lot more with the powers they have to both neutralisr opposition by doing a competent job, and bolster amd increase support by showimg that where power lies in Edinburgh, Scotland does better.

Also i can see why people think the young demographic will see thrm over the line in the future, but that demographic is shrinking and i would imagine there is a marked decrease in appetite as younger, more strident types have kids, get good jobs and have other priorities. So i dont think it necessarily follows.

Is the bit I've highlighted your take on the Brexit vote and the UKIP/Right Wing Tory campaign for leave?

For what it's worth, 45% of the voting electorate were willing to take the 'risk' in the Indyref. Maybe, like me, they see the real risk is remaining in a failing UK where, amongst other things, those with 'experience' in running the economy have stacked up how much debt - oh, right enough, only £1.75 trillion.

[JimBHibees]

There was plenty, adequate detail in the White paper.

The Better Together campaign disputed all the detail, sowed confusion and doubt and made it look like the detail was inaccurate.

They were entitled to do so and did so to great effect.

It is wrong to suggest that the proposal lacked detail, particularly when you put it next to the lack of detail/ totally inaccurate detail (£350m for the NHS) of the Brexit campaign.

350m a week lets remember. I think when politicians knowingly lie to that extent there should be a re-run of the election. Blatant untruth by the now Foreign secretary yet he seems to have got away with it and of course the right wing press dont care because job done.

[speedy_gonzales]

Let's put the bit in bold to bed. THERE WAS NEVER A THREAT TO PENSIONS. However the Better Together camp fooled people with their assertion that people would lose their pension (or should that be lied!!?). I wonder how expats in Spain would feel about that!?
I felt my pension could have been at risk, currently got 24 years of contributions tied up in a fund protected by a parliamentary act at Westminster, invested primarily in British investments & calculated in £ sterling.
When I raised my concerns I was far from satisfied with the answers, if anything I was made to feel grubby because I had a concern that pertained to money, at the end of the day I feel money/finances (currency/TAX/debt) was a major question for some so they should have been dealt with sincerely.

[Moulin Yarns]

I felt my pension could have been at risk, currently got 24 years of contributions tied up in a fund protected by a parliamentary act at Westminster, invested primarily in British investments & calculated in £ sterling.
When I raised my concerns I was far from satisfied with the answers, if anything I was made to feel grubby because I had a concern that pertained to money, at the end of the day I feel money/finances (currency/TAX/debt) was a major question for some so they should have been dealt with sincerely.


The bit in bold, it would not have changed. New pension arrangements post independence MAY have been worse, or better, but the existing pensions were protected.

meanwhile, cast your mind back to 2014....


Gordon Brown warned that independence came with a pensions time-bomb. The UK Government backed that claim and now we see pension age increases for women meaning some will lose out up to £30,000. UK Government policy since the referendum means that middle to high earners will be better off through their pensions but that low earners will bear the cost of pension reforms. A Scot earning around £15,000 with a working life of 30 years, could see their pension drop £1,800 per annum.

[speedy_gonzales]

The bit in bold, it would not have changed. New pension arrangements post independence MAY have been worse, or better, but the existing pensions were protected.
I wish you'd been at our department meeting with company HR & Union reps. It wasn't as clear cut as you make it out to be. My concern was the value of existing pension pot depending what happened re an I-Scotland currency arrangement & subsequent interest rates. Company pensions north of the border could have differed over the term (better or worse) than our colleagues south of the border.
At that meeting, and since, NOBODY can assure me my pension would NOT be worth less than a colleagues down south,,,,to me that is a risk and has to be factored into any decision I make towards an Independent Scotland.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Let's put the bit in bold to bed. THERE WAS NEVER A THREAT TO PENSIONS. However the Better Together camp fooled people with their assertion that people would lose their pension (or should that be lied!!?). I wonder how expats in Spain would feel about that!?

I wasnt meaning about old age state pension, i was more meaning private pensions linked to london stock exchange and their jobs.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Is the bit I've highlighted your take on the Brexit vote and the UKIP/Right Wing Tory campaign for leave?

For what it's worth, 45% of the voting electorate were willing to take the 'risk' in the Indyref. Maybe, like me, they see the real risk is remaining in a failing UK where, amongst other things, those with 'experience' in running the economy have stacked up how much debt - oh, right enough, only £1.75 trillion.

We are not talking about brexit.

You did, but the majority didnt. Hence the yes side lost, despite a strong showing.

Surely there is enough introspection to want to examine why they lost?

Or you could just keep slating those who voted differemtly amd reading The National. That will help.

[Just Alf]

I wish you'd been at our department meeting with company HR & Union reps. It wasn't as clear cut as you make it out to be. My concern was the value of existing pension pot depending what happened re an I-Scotland currency arrangement & subsequent interest rates. Company pensions north of the border could have differed over the term (better or worse) than our colleagues south of the border.
At that meeting, and since, NOBODY can assure me my pension would NOT be worth less than a colleagues down south,,,,to me that is a risk and has to be factored into any decision I make towards an Independent Scotland.

At the time, I worked for BT and our financial guys were adamant that our existing pension benefit wouldn't be impacted at all... Unless
1) I removed the pension pot from it's existing fund and put it elsewhere
2) I took my pension in a possible new currency.
so if i left things as they were I'd be on the exact same benefit as an English or Welsh (or someone who'd emigrated) colleague.

what was more complicated would be any new benefits accrued.

[speedy_gonzales]

At the time, I worked for BT and our financial guys were adamant that our existing pension benefit wouldn't be impacted at all... Unless
1) I removed the pension pot from it's existing fund and put it elsewhere
2) I took my pension in a possible new currency.
so if i left things as they were I'd be on the exact same benefit as an English or Welsh (or someone who'd emigrated) colleague.

what was more complicated would be any new benefits accrued.
Yeah, similar information & scenarios given to us, the biggest question mark was a possible new currency and what it would be pegged to. Nobody could or would give a definitive answer and we were advised, like ALL financial products, values could go up as well as down.
I just felt then, as I do now, that it was a bit disingenuous to say pensions weren't at risk. Being a financial product, there was a lot of variables out there.

[allmodcons]

We are not talking about brexit.

You did, but the majority didnt. Hence the yes side lost, despite a strong showing.

Surely there is enough introspection to want to examine why they lost?

Or you could just keep slating those who voted differemtly amd reading The National. That will help.

Sorry but I thought your original post was about Brexit.

FWIW, I don't slate those who voted 'No' but in the past have strongly advocated and argued for Independence.

I never buy a newspaper.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Sorry but I thought your original post was about Brexit.

FWIW, I don't slate those who voted 'No' but in the past have strongly advocated and argued for Independence.

I never buy a newspaper.

Fair enough, me neither!

Apologies for the snippy reply, didnt meant it to sound like that.