Economy Watch

[High-On-Hibs]

There isn't a thread yet that focuses specifically on the economy. It may be a good idea to have one so we can keep track of the volatility of the financial market.

GBP to USD has currently slumped from $1.50 to the pound to $1.31. This is even lower than the initial slump of $1.34 to the pound almost instantly after the EU referendum result, showing that statements from Mark Carney and George Osborne are not instilling confidence in investors.

GBP to EUR has slumped from €1.31 to the pound to €1.19 to the pound.

It is being reported that further volatility is predicted.

[southfieldhibby]

Some 'experts' predicting 1:1 for £/€ by end of summer

[Arch Stanton]

Friday: Catastrophic falls to the pound and to the FTSE 100
Monday: Catastrophic falls to the pound and to the FTSE 100

The speculators have taken their profits/losses and left - it is now the turn of big business and pension funds to respond - there is no sign of any bottoming out, nor likely to be for a long time.

A mistake has been made and everyone knows a mistake has been made but everyone is wittering on about 'democracy'. If the people we democratically elected to run the country can't use their collective nonces to correct the mistake then no one else can.

Miscarriages of justice can be corrected so why not silly referendum results. The country is walking blindfold towards a precipice - god help us.

[Hibbyradge]

Friday: Catastrophic falls to the pound and to the FTSE 100
Monday: Catastrophic falls to the pound and to the FTSE 100

The speculators have taken their profits/losses and left - it is now the turn of big business and pension funds to respond - there is no sign of any bottoming out, nor likely to be for a long time.

A mistake has been made and everyone knows a mistake has been made but everyone is wittering on about 'democracy'. If the people we democratically elected to run the country can't use their collective nonces to correct the mistake then no one else can.

Miscarriages of justice can be corrected so why not silly referendum results. The country is walking blindfold towards a precipice - god help us.

Abso frigging lutely. 100% correct.

[Colr]

Abso frigging lutely. 100% correct.

When you're in a hole, stop digging.

[Holmesdale Hibs]

Friday: Catastrophic falls to the pound and to the FTSE 100
Monday: Catastrophic falls to the pound and to the FTSE 100

The speculators have taken their profits/losses and left - it is now the turn of big business and pension funds to respond - there is no sign of any bottoming out, nor likely to be for a long time.

A mistake has been made and everyone knows a mistake has been made but everyone is wittering on about 'democracy'. If the people we democratically elected to run the country can't use their collective nonces to correct the mistake then no one else can.

Miscarriages of justice can be corrected so why not silly referendum results. The country is walking blindfold towards a precipice - god help us.

I think you're grossly exaggerating with the phrase 'catastrophic falls'. The FTSE fell below 6000 a few months ago as well when there was fears about the Chinese economy and I can't recall that being catastrophic. That's not to say the FTSE won't fall further, it probably will, but given we're all quick to criticise politicians for exaggeration, let's not start to do it ourselves.

As for another referendum, can you think of a better way to destroy what little confidence the public has left in Westminster. Just because you don't like the result, doesn't mean everyone that disagrees with you is 'silly'.

[High-On-Hibs]

As for another referendum, can you think of a better way to destroy what little confidence the public has left in Westminster.

Not really. But don't you think that's the point? :confused:

[Arch Stanton]

I think you're grossly exaggerating with the phrase 'catastrophic falls'. The FTSE fell below 6000 a few months ago as well when there was fears about the Chinese economy and I can't recall that being catastrophic. That's not to say the FTSE won't fall further, it probably will, but given we're all quick to criticise politicians for exaggeration, let's not start to do it ourselves.

As for another referendum, can you think of a better way to destroy what little confidence the public has left in Westminster. Just because you don't like the result, doesn't mean everyone that disagrees with you is 'silly'.

Exaggerating? Not in the least! Speculation can cause big swings but that is not what we're seeing here is it?

And as for not liking the result - if the question had been honest and said 'Do you want UK to leave EU and risk bankrupting the UK' I would have been perfectly happy with the result. For pity sakes - adverts for credit products give decent risk warnings.

I assume from your post that you are expecting an upturn sometime soon, or are at least prepared to live through a depression in the UK if it doesn't, so, good luck to you on that.

[Hibbyradge]

When you're in a hole, stop digging.

Am I in a hole? :confused:

[grunt]

As for another referendum, can you think of a better way to destroy what little confidence the public has left in Westminster. Just because you don't like the result, doesn't mean everyone that disagrees with you is 'silly'.

You make a good point. The opportunity was missed when the referendum was set up - such a major constitutional change should never have been allowed on the back of a simple majority. Such major issues should require a 75% majority before being enacted. You wouldn't get a company making such a major change in this way; much less a sovereign state. It's ridiculous.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Colr]

Am I in a hole? :confused:

To paraphrase Jess Phillips, it's not about you!!

[Ronniekirk]

There isn't a thread yet that focuses specifically on the economy. It may be a good idea to have one so we can keep track of the volatility of the financial market.

GBP to USD has currently slumped from $1.50 to the pound to $1.31. This is even lower than the initial slump of $1.34 to the pound almost instantly after the EU referendum result, showing that statements from Mark Carney and George Osborne are not instilling confidence in investors.

GBP to EUR has slumped from €1.31 to the pound to €1.19 to the pound.

It is being reported that further volatility is predicted.

Econmy Watch Thought you were selling some bargain Rolex for a minute



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hibbyradge]

To paraphrase Jess Phillips, it's not about you!!

That's reassuring :greengrin: but to whom or what we're you referring?

[High-On-Hibs]

Econmy Watch Thought you were selling some bargain Rolex for a minute



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

With the damage that Brexit has done to the economy, you will have to settle for Casio for now. :greengrin

[Holmesdale Hibs]

Exaggerating? Not in the least! Speculation can cause big swings but that is not what we're seeing here is it?

And as for not liking the result - if the question had been honest and said 'Do you want UK to leave EU and risk bankrupting the UK' I would have been perfectly happy with the result. For pity sakes - adverts for credit products give decent risk warnings.

I assume from your post that you are expecting an upturn sometime soon, or are at least prepared to live through a depression in the UK if it doesn't, so, good luck to you on that.

To be fair I said the FTSE would probably fall further so your assumption that I expect an upturn doesn't make sense.

[Colr]

To be fair I said the FTSE would probably fall further so your assumption that I expect an upturn doesn't make sense.

Have a lok at the FTSE 250. It's dropped about 7%. Companis in the 250 are more dependent on UK earnings than those in the 100 so these movements are a better gauge of market sentiments about the prospects for the UK economy.

[pacoluna]

If oil is so volatile how come Brexit has had little effect on its price but is devastating on the pound?

[Arch Stanton]

To be fair I said the FTSE would probably fall further so your assumption that I expect an upturn doesn't make sense.

Just saying that it "would probably fall further" doesn't quite do it justice - in the circumstances it is a very optimistic way of putting it. (And yes, does imply an upturn is in the offing at some point).

[Arch Stanton]

If oil is so volatile how come Brexit has had little effect on its price but is devastating on the pound?

They have to buy the crude in dollars and refine it before it gets to the pump - give it a couple of days yet. :greengrin

[Holmesdale Hibs]

Have a lok at the FTSE 250. It's dropped about 7%. Companis in the 250 are more dependent on UK earnings than those in the 100 so these movements are a better gauge of market sentiments about the prospects for the UK economy.

Fair point. I wasn't arguing that any of this was good, just that 'catastrophic' is an exaggeration of what has happened. I actually expected the markets would fall by more, particularly on Friday. RBS has been particularly shafted though and I lost a wee bit on a van rental company that I'd considered too boring for for a big swing.

[Holmesdale Hibs]

Just saying that it "would probably fall further" doesn't quite do it justice - in the circumstances it is a very optimistic way of putting it. (And yes, does imply an upturn is in the offing at some point).

Well I suppose the economy will always be cyclic so by definition you have a point. Anyway, it's petty chat so let's drop it.

[SouthsideHarp_Bhoy]

Friday: Catastrophic falls to the pound and to the FTSE 100
Monday: Catastrophic falls to the pound and to the FTSE 100

The speculators have taken their profits/losses and left - it is now the turn of big business and pension funds to respond - there is no sign of any bottoming out, nor likely to be for a long time.

A mistake has been made and everyone knows a mistake has been made but everyone is wittering on about 'democracy'. If the people we democratically elected to run the country can't use their collective nonces to correct the mistake then no one else can.

Miscarriages of justice can be corrected so why not silly referendum results. The country is walking blindfold towards a precipice - god help us.


If the new tory leader called a an election, amd lab/libdems/snp stood on a 2nd ref or pro-eu platform and won a majority in parliament, woyld that be a possible way out?

But it does seem a bit grubby. Does the end justify the means?

[Colr]

If oil is so volatile how come Brexit has had little effect on its price but is devastating on the pound?

Oil is sold in dollars. UK is a net importer of oil so weak pound will affect the price we pay at the pumps.

[Colr]

Fair point. I wasn't arguing that any of this was good, just that 'catastrophic' is an exaggeration of what has happened. I actually expected the markets would fall by more, particularly on Friday. RBS has been particularly shafted though and I lost a wee bit on a van rental company that I'd considered too boring for for a big swing.

Housebuilding companies have tanked as have the banks.

[Arch Stanton]

If the new tory leader called a an election, amd lab/libdems/snp stood on a 2nd ref or pro-eu platform and won a majority in parliament, woyld that be a possible way out?

But it does seem a bit grubby. Does the end justify the means?

"But it does seem a bit grubby. " - not the English way of doing things you mean - stiff upper lip chaps!:greengrin

[High-On-Hibs]

GBP to USD has risen slightly to $1.33 to the pound.

[RyeSloan]

There isn't a thread yet that focuses specifically on the economy. It may be a good idea to have one so we can keep track of the volatility of the financial market. GBP to USD has currently slumped from $1.50 to the pound to $1.31. This is even lower than the initial slump of $1.34 to the pound almost instantly after the EU referendum result, showing that statements from Mark Carney and George Osborne are not instilling confidence in investors. GBP to EUR has slumped from €1.31 to the pound to €1.19 to the pound. It is being reported that further volatility is predicted.

What? Volatility predicted in financial markets? Jeez, never seen that before! We will be predicting uncertain future economic conditions next...

This thread should really have been called market watch rather than economy watch as it will take years for a Brexit to fully flow through the economy.

Trying to use a few days moves in the market to justify or deplore a decision is a fools errand. As it stands you could easily ask why the markets have risen for so long? Is it due to underlying strength of the economy and prudent fiscal policies or down to huge bouts of QE by the central banks? Or we could discuss the perverse impacts of low and negative interest rates being foisted on the world? These are having profound long term impacts, potentially much more so than Brexit.

As it is the markets are up strongly today and sterling has strengthened against the $ and the € so should we suppose that the 'catastrophic' reactions of the markets were in fact simply short term trading impacts and nothing what so ever to do with the long term valuation of the companies that make up the indices? Or that the prospect of a weaker pound will help our exporters and any company that has significant overseas earnings?

There was never any doubt that a Brexit would cause uncertainty and volatility but that doesn't mean that in the long term the economy may well actually gain due to the UKs ability to negotiate trade and other agreements world wide without having to wait (and wait and wait) for the EU to do so.

[Hibrandenburg]

Some 'experts' predicting 1:1 for £/€ by end of summer

Can't come soon enough :greengrin

[High-On-Hibs]

What? Volatility predicted in financial markets? Jeez, never seen that before! We will be predicting uncertain future economic conditions next...

This thread should really have been called market watch rather than economy watch as it will take years for a Brexit to fully flow through the economy.

Trying to use a few days moves in the market to justify or deplore a decision is a fools errand. As it stands you could easily ask why the markets have risen for so long? Is it due to underlying strength of the economy and prudent fiscal policies or down to huge bouts of QE by the central banks? Or we could discuss the perverse impacts of low and negative interest rates being foisted on the world? These are having profound long term impacts, potentially much more so than Brexit.

As it is the markets are up strongly today and sterling has strengthened against the $ and the € so should we suppose that the 'catastrophic' reactions of the markets were in fact simply short term trading impacts and nothing what so ever to do with the long term valuation of the companies that make up the indices? Or that the prospect of a weaker pound will help our exporters and any company that has significant overseas earnings?

There was never any doubt that a Brexit would cause uncertainty and volatility but that doesn't mean that in the long term the economy may well actually gain due to the UKs ability to negotiate trade and other agreements world wide without having to wait (and wait and wait) for the EU to do so.

You're not taking the outcome of Brexit very well are you? Regrets?

[Arch Stanton]

What? Volatility predicted in financial markets? Jeez, never seen that before! We will be predicting uncertain future economic conditions next...

This thread should really have been called market watch rather than economy watch as it will take years for a Brexit to fully flow through the economy.

Trying to use a few days moves in the market to justify or deplore a decision is a fools errand. As it stands you could easily ask why the markets have risen for so long? Is it due to underlying strength of the economy and prudent fiscal policies or down to huge bouts of QE by the central banks? Or we could discuss the perverse impacts of low and negative interest rates being foisted on the world? These are having profound long term impacts, potentially much more so than Brexit.

As it is the markets are up strongly today and sterling has strengthened against the $ and the € so should we suppose that the 'catastrophic' reactions of the markets were in fact simply short term trading impacts and nothing what so ever to do with the long term valuation of the companies that make up the indices? Or that the prospect of a weaker pound will help our exporters and any company that has significant overseas earnings?

There was never any doubt that a Brexit would cause uncertainty and volatility but that doesn't mean that in the long term the economy may well actually gain due to the UKs ability to negotiate trade and other agreements world wide without having to wait (and wait and wait) for the EU to do so.

While I'll grant that my characterisation of falling markets as 'catastrophic' was something of an overstatement - probably truer to say that these were just the first few kicks in the teeth.

Markets up strongly? GBP/Dollar is sitting at 1.33 and it spent most of yesterday sitting at 1.36. Up strongly? Up at all?

Your suggestions that things might actually improve are cringeworthy on so many counts and for your information I deplored the decision to leave before I saw any market results - not after.

[RyeSloan]

You're not taking the outcome of Brexit very well are you? Regrets?

What outcome? If you can provide the outcome of Brexit I will tell you what I think of it.

You on the other hand will continually avoid any counter argument to your profound statements, you have done so here and on other threads not least your statements on the strengthening and recovering Euro and the weak Pound.

Happy to have debate but I fear your understanding of currencies, markets and economies does not stand up to scrutiny. You can post what you believe all you want but without being able to back it up with any sound reasoning doesn't help in persuading anyone that your beliefs are based on conclusions brought about by any degree of analysis. There is plenty of others on here that I don't agree with but I'm happy to accept their conclusions (even if I don't share them) as they at least demonstrate some ability to reason their position.

[JeMeSouviens]

What? Volatility predicted in financial markets? Jeez, never seen that before! We will be predicting uncertain future economic conditions next...

This thread should really have been called market watch rather than economy watch as it will take years for a Brexit to fully flow through the economy.

Trying to use a few days moves in the market to justify or deplore a decision is a fools errand. As it stands you could easily ask why the markets have risen for so long? Is it due to underlying strength of the economy and prudent fiscal policies or down to huge bouts of QE by the central banks? Or we could discuss the perverse impacts of low and negative interest rates being foisted on the world? These are having profound long term impacts, potentially much more so than Brexit.

As it is the markets are up strongly today and sterling has strengthened against the $ and the € so should we suppose that the 'catastrophic' reactions of the markets were in fact simply short term trading impacts and nothing what so ever to do with the long term valuation of the companies that make up the indices? Or that the prospect of a weaker pound will help our exporters and any company that has significant overseas earnings?

There was never any doubt that a Brexit would cause uncertainty and volatility but that doesn't mean that in the long term the economy may well actually gain due to the UKs ability to negotiate trade and other agreements world wide without having to wait (and wait and wait) for the EU to do so.

Eh? The UK & US stock markets rose through the 90s but have bumped up and down since 2000.

Agree that we shouldn't read too much into short term volatility but it's pretty undeniable that general sentiment in the UK market is negative for now.

[danhibees1875]

GBP to USD has risen slightly to $1.33 to the pound.

If it wouldn't mind getting back to 1.4 before I run out of dollars over here that would be lovely!

[RyeSloan]

Eh? The UK & US stock markets rose through the 90s but have bumped up and down since 2000. Agree that we shouldn't read too much into short term volatility but it's pretty undeniable that general sentiment in the UK market is negative for now.

Aye fair point but I was talking about the market since 2008...just as well we are not Japan, that's still miles behind is 1989 high! Just goes to show the power of fiscal stimulus and money printing ;-)

[mmmmhibby]

What outcome? If you can provide the outcome of Brexit I will tell you what I think of it.

You on the other hand will continually avoid any counter argument to your profound statements, you have done so here and on other threads not least your statements on the strengthening and recovering Euro and the weak Pound.

Happy to have debate but I fear your understanding of currencies, markets and economies does not stand up to scrutiny. You can post what you believe all you want but without being able to back it up with any sound reasoning doesn't help in persuading anyone that your beliefs are based on conclusions brought about by any degree of analysis. There is plenty of others on here that I don't agree with but I'm happy to accept their conclusions (even if I don't share them) as they at least demonstrate some ability to reason their position.

Great post Si, contructive debate is great, lets try and keep it to that. And your opinions are always thorough, keep em coming lol.

[Arch Stanton]

What outcome? If you can provide the outcome of Brexit I will tell you what I think of it.

You on the other hand will continually avoid any counter argument to your profound statements, you have done so here and on other threads not least your statements on the strengthening and recovering Euro and the weak Pound.

Happy to have debate but I fear your understanding of currencies, markets and economies does not stand up to scrutiny. You can post what you believe all you want but without being able to back it up with any sound reasoning doesn't help in persuading anyone that your beliefs are based on conclusions brought about by any degree of analysis. There is plenty of others on here that I don't agree with but I'm happy to accept their conclusions (even if I don't share them) as they at least demonstrate some ability to reason their position.

So, lets get this straight, the title of the thread should more correctly be 'market watch' since the ignorant folks on here wouldn't know enough to understand the long-term workings of the economy, which can in any case only be understood in retrospect and we should all keep schtum until the experts say so and even then we shouldn't really just leave it to the experts if and when it's a good time for it to be talked about.

Also, take great care when reading the words of experts since if they are saying bad things about Brexit then they cannot be considered experts - loads and loads of them about.

In summary it is too early to pass judgement on how good or bad Brexit is since it could as easily be a good thing. Like, when GO says to expect tax rises and cuts in services, he is just being a drama queen.

And always remember that the falling pound means that our exports are cheaper!! A small proviso is that if those exports have to use imported raw material then any such gains will probably be more than wiped out - financial services anyone? (London's pre-eminence in that field can only shine brighter after this debacle - no publicity is bad publicity as they say.)

Of course, the last paragraph can safely be ignored if you consider the falling pound not to be falling at all.

[RyeSloan]

So, lets get this straight, the title of the thread should more correctly be 'market watch' since the ignorant folks on here wouldn't know enough to understand the long-term workings of the economy, which can in any case only be understood in retrospect and we should all keep schtum until the experts say so and even then we shouldn't really just leave it to the experts if and when it's a good time for it to be talked about. Also, take great care when reading the words of experts since if they are saying bad things about Brexit then they cannot be considered experts - loads and loads of them about. In summary it is too early to pass judgement on how good or bad Brexit is since it could as easily be a good thing. Like, when GO says to expect tax rises and cuts in services, he is just being a drama queen. And always remember that the falling pound means that our exports are cheaper!! A small proviso is that if those exports have to use imported raw material then any such gains will probably be more than wiped out - financial services anyone? (London's pre-eminence in that field can only shine brighter after this debacle - no publicity is bad publicity as they say.) Of course, the last paragraph can safely be ignored if you consider the falling pound not to be falling at all.

No I was referencing an individual poster who has said a hell of a lot but frequently failed to back much of it up or respond to alternative viewpoints or arguments.

But since you ask, yes it's impossible to judge the state of the economy from 2 or 3 day moves in the stock market, the two are not correlated that closely (sometimes not at all).

Also economic forecasts are probably best ignored...they are notoriously unreliable and pretty useless in predicting actual events and outcomes. You just need to look at how frequently and often the OBR revises theirs to see that.

Finally the UK export market is dominated by services not physical goods so yes a weak pound could be significantly beneficial to that sector. In fact the UK has a massive surplus when you look at services imports/exports so you could say a weak pound will support our most successful export. I didn't say it would outweigh the increased costs of goods imported but it's an important factor to consider when viewing currency moves and the impact of them, something some people were clearly not aware of when using the fact the pound was falling as a sign that the sky was falling down.

I do agree with one point though, Gideon is indeed a bit of a drama queen :-)

[stoneyburn hibs]

If it wouldn't mind getting back to 1.4 before I run out of dollars over here that would be lovely!

Two days left in the states for me and I'm clinging on to my last $200, loathe to use my bank card.

[Hibrandenburg]

Booked a holiday in the UK in August and have only put down a small deposit on the cottage I've rented. It's getting cheaper every day.

[Arch Stanton]

Booked a holiday in the UK in August and have only put down a small deposit on the cottage I've rented. It's getting cheaper every day.

It'll rain.

[Hibrandenburg]

It'll rain.

That's why I'm holidaying there, sick to death of 30c and sunshine. :greengrin

[RyeSloan]

We seem to be missing a few posts reporting the markets today?

Nothing to do with them going up again I'm sure...the Ftse all share is pretty much back to where it was and a mighty 60 points off it's year high...in fact it's not been materially higher since August 2015.

Pound strengthened again as well (albeit from a low base)

[Hibbyradge]

We seem to be missing a few posts reporting the markets today?

Nothing to do with them going up again I'm sure...the Ftse all share is pretty much back to where it was and a mighty 60 points off it's year high...in fact it's not been materially higher since August 2015.

Pound strengthened again as well (albeit from a low base)

This is a cool thread. (It's not.)

FTSE 250 is up too. It's still much lower than it was a week, a month or a year ago.

It means little, though, as you know.

Finance houses are selling in order to grab bargains so you'll see fluctuations up and down.

If we trigger A 50, the market will fluctuate wildly again, mostly downwards, but if we strike a deal, they'll soar.

If we don't, we're all buggered.

[RyeSloan]

This is a cool thread. (It's not.) FTSE 250 is up too. It's still much lower than it was a week, a month or a year ago. It means little, though, as you know. Finance houses are selling in order to grab bargains so you'll see fluctuations up and down. If we trigger A 50, the market will fluctuate wildly again, mostly downwards, but if we strike a deal, they'll soar. If we don't, we're all buggered.

I thought we were all buggered, sky falling down and economy tanking anyway ? ;-)

Aye yer right though...market moves mean nothing in the short term...that was exactly my point.

[High-On-Hibs]

We seem to be missing a few posts reporting the markets today?

Nothing to do with them going up again I'm sure...the Ftse all share is pretty much back to where it was and a mighty 60 points off it's year high...in fact it's not been materially higher since August 2015.

Pound strengthened again as well (albeit from a low base)

My sincerest apologies SiMar. Here is an update on the "recovery" that you seem to be wetting your pants about.

http://oi67.tinypic.com/5bze34.jpg

The market improving overall is pretty irrelevant to us if the pound isn't adequately recovering. But you already knew that.

[Hibbyradge]

I thought we were all buggered, sky falling down and economy tanking anyway ? ;-)

Aye yer right though...market moves mean nothing in the short term...that was exactly my point.

I'm sort of impressed with your relaxed attitude to what could face us, tbh. I'm kacking it, genuinely.

The logic in me says that there is no way that the country will walk away in 2 years without a trade deal, whoever the PM is, but I never thought the country would vote to leave.

Corbyn and the Trot supporters in momentum would love it, of course. The long awaited revolution would be almost palpable.

My current thinking is that there will be a second referendum which will reverse the 23 June result.

Kindly hope so.

[Arch Stanton]

My sincerest apologies SiMar. Here is an update on the "recovery" that you seem to be wetting your pants about.

http://oi67.tinypic.com/5bze34.jpg

The market improving overall is pretty irrelevant to us if the pound isn't adequately recovering. But you already knew that.

Looks more like it's stuck in sludge, doesn't it? Small numbers putting a toe in the water and buying 'low' most like.


I'm sort of impressed with your relaxed attitude to what could face us, tbh. I'm kacking it, genuinely.

The logic in me says that there is no way that the country will walk away in 2 years without a trade deal, whoever the PM is, but I never thought the country would vote to leave.

Corbyn and the Trot supporters in momentum would love it, of course. The long awaited revolution would be almost palpable.

My current thinking is that there will be a second referendum which will reverse the 23 June result.

Kindly hope so.

That two years may be optimistic according to the following, and I quote -

'The Lords EU Committee said determining the rights of two million UK nationals living in the EU would be a "complex and daunting" part of exit talks.

It also says trade deals between the EU and non-EU states take between four and nine years on average.'

Taken from -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/36634702/article-50-the-simplest-explanation-youll-find

[RyeSloan]

I'm sort of impressed with your relaxed attitude to what could face us, tbh. I'm kacking it, genuinely. The logic in me says that there is no way that the country will walk away in 2 years without a trade deal, whoever the PM is, but I never thought the country would vote to leave. Corbyn and the Trot supporters in momentum would love it, of course. The long awaited revolution would be almost palpable. My current thinking is that there will be a second referendum which will reverse the 23 June result. Kindly hope so.

Well I'm a kind of what will be will be kind of guy ;-)

Honestly I don't see the EU as the giver of great riches so once the transition is sorted I'm reasonably confident that the country might actually prosper more than it would have, or at the very least be no worse off. The U.K. Has a pretty flexible labour market and economy so I have faith that it will adjust.

Of course staying in would have given continuity but it had its negatives as well so over the long run I am pretty relaxed.

That's not to say I don't appreciate that the current mess may well effect people directly and in some cases severely, possibly even myself. But although I have empathy for that I don't have the level of fear and dreading your fine self seems to have.

[Hibbyradge]

Looks more like it's stuck in sludge, doesn't it? Small numbers putting a toe in the water and buying 'low' most like.



That two years may be optimistic according to the following, and I quote -

'The Lords EU Committee said determining the rights of two million UK nationals living in the EU would be a "complex and daunting" part of exit talks.

It also says trade deals between the EU and non-EU states take between four and nine years on average.'

Taken from -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/36634702/article-50-the-simplest-explanation-youll-find

No wonder BJ looked so sick.

If it wasn't so serious, it would be funny.

[RyeSloan]

My sincerest apologies SiMar. Here is an update on the "recovery" that you seem to be wetting your pants about. The market improving overall is pretty irrelevant to us if the pound isn't adequately recovering. But you already knew that.

No pant or bed wetting here...I'll leave that to yourself if you don't mind.

I've already tired to point out to you that a weak pound is not all bad but hey ho you can lead a horse to water and all that...

[High-On-Hibs]

No pant or bed wetting here...I'll leave that to yourself if you don't mind.

I've already tired to point out to you that a weak pound is not all bad but hey ho you can lead a horse to water and all that...

Nobody is saying that it's "all bad". But surely even you must agree that it's considerably more bad than good?

[Arch Stanton]

No pant or bed wetting here...I'll leave that to yourself if you don't mind.

I've already tired to point out to you that a weak pound is not all bad but hey ho you can lead a horse to water and all that...

We didn't actually need you to explain about the weak pound thanks very much.

You have it that 'Services' will save the day because they will be cheaper, but I'm sorry, people generally want good advice rather than cheap advice. What credibility will the City of London have after this debacle? The one attempt by the BoE to spell out the dangers got shouted down by Leave with zero reaction from the city.

Nice comment from the England/Iceland game which fits - 'the reputations of all those involved will be tarnished forever'.

You make out like you know what you are talking about but I'll you who knows what they are talking about and that is the credit rating agencies who have reduced our credit rating making government borrowing more expensive.

Moody's warns Britain's economic growth will be weaker, its economic policymaking may be diminished and the government's fiscal strength reduced.

Standard & Poor’s warned of the economic, fiscal and constitutional risks the country now faces

Now, if you want to carry on being cheerful that's fine by me but stop making out that you know better and that others are wrong.

[mmmmhibby]

We didn't actually need you to explain about the weak pound thanks very much.

You have it that 'Services' will save the day because they will be cheaper, but I'm sorry, people generally want good advice rather than cheap advice. What credibility will the City of London have after this debacle? The one attempt by the BoE to spell out the dangers got shouted down by Leave with zero reaction from the city.

Nice comment from the England/Iceland game which fits - 'the reputations of all those involved will be tarnished forever'.

You make out like you know what you are talking about but I'll you who knows what they are talking about and that is the credit rating agencies who have reduced our credit rating making government borrowing more expensive.

Moody's warns Britain's economic growth will be weaker, its economic policymaking may be diminished and the government's fiscal strength reduced.

Standard & Poor’s warned of the economic, fiscal and constitutional risks the country now faces

Now, if you want to carry on being cheerful that's fine by me but stop making out that you know better and that others are wrong.

I have a friend who works for the biggest hedge fund company on the planet, he said Moodys are regarded as irrelevant after previous mismanagement.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article24559855.html

[Arch Stanton]

I have a friend who works for the biggest hedge fund company on the planet, he said Moodys are regarded as irrelevant after previous mismanagement.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article24559855.html

Fair enough Moody's were crooks in that instance but they still know what they're talking about.

Anyway, I doubt that hedge funds ever used credit ratings. It is only us poor mortals that get affected by their pronouncements.

I'd be interested to know how the hedge funds see all this. There doesn't seem to be a lot of speculation on the pound rising anyway.

[RyeSloan]

We didn't actually need you to explain about the weak pound thanks very much. You have it that 'Services' will save the day because they will be cheaper, but I'm sorry, people generally want good advice rather than cheap advice. What credibility will the City of London have after this debacle? The one attempt by the BoE to spell out the dangers got shouted down by Leave with zero reaction from the city. Nice comment from the England/Iceland game which fits - 'the reputations of all those involved will be tarnished forever'. You make out like you know what you are talking about but I'll you who knows what they are talking about and that is the credit rating agencies who have reduced our credit rating making government borrowing more expensive. Moody's warns Britain's economic growth will be weaker, its economic policymaking may be diminished and the government's fiscal strength reduced. Standard & Poor’s warned of the economic, fiscal and constitutional risks the country now faces Now, if you want to carry on being cheerful that's fine by me but stop making out that you know better and that others are wrong.

Why do you keep responding to my posts like I an talking to everyone when I've clearly quoted an individual poster? My comment was directed as high on hibs so unless you are the same person I fail to see why you think I was responding to you or whoever you are classing as 'we'. And I've never said I'm right and everyone else is wrong, merely pointed out that nothing is black and white like pound down = all bad as that's simply not true.

As for Moody's...aye they were so accurate in 2008 I think we should all bow down to their knowledge. As it happens their ratings have some value I suppose but it's all rather reactionary rather than any sort of prediction and they are busy giving high ratings to repacked sub prime structured debt again so I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

And wow they are predicting that the country faces some risks, which may be elevated in times of uncertainty...I sure hope no one is paying them too much for that sage advice.

Finally government borrowing is not more expensive (the ratings change was so over due it made no difference) and in fact 10 year gilts are hitting record low rates so as I was merely trying to point out the MSM representation of these events is not always accurate and the impact on the economy never straight forward as the FTSE100 may have indicated today by going over its pre Brexit value, it's stuffed with companies that make big earnings overseas so the recent fall in sterling is manna from heaven for them.

[Billy Whizz]

I'm starting to see prices increases in my retail food industry. Looks like I'll have to pass them on unfortunately

[Arch Stanton]

Mainly for Simar (but possibly of interest to others) -

If you make a point to High-on-Hibs everyone else on here can read it. It's maybe a bit technical so you maybe need to trust me on that.

It might making a smashing post quoting FTSE 100 but the rest of us are quite capable of seeing what the FTSE 250 is doing as well as how the pound is faring.

The fact that the credit rating should have changed long ago (in your infinite wisdom anyway) doesn't pair very well with your implication that it doesn't effect borrowing anyway.

And quoting gilts? High because of the low pound? Give me a break.

I'm not sure if I've covered everything but given your extreme selectivity in how you respond to posts I dare say it wouldn't be such a great deal.

[High-On-Hibs]

SiMar. I'm truly honoured to have your undivided attention. But do allow other people into the debate, as i'm sure there are many view points that people wish to express and add to the discussion. :wink:

[RyeSloan]

SiMar. I'm truly honoured to have your undivided attention. But do allow other people into the debate, as i'm sure there are many view points that people wish to express and add to the discussion. :wink:

Yawn.

[RyeSloan]

Mainly for Simar (but possibly of interest to others) - If you make a point to High-on-Hibs everyone else on here can read it. It's maybe a bit technical so you maybe need to trust me on that. It might making a smashing post quoting FTSE 100 but the rest of us are quite capable of seeing what the FTSE 250 is doing as well as how the pound is faring. The fact that the credit rating should have changed long ago (in your infinite wisdom anyway) doesn't pair very well with your implication that it doesn't effect borrowing anyway. And quoting gilts? High because of the low pound? Give me a break. I'm not sure if I've covered everything but given your extreme selectivity in how you respond to posts I dare say it wouldn't be such a great deal.

Aye I'm well aware of that thanks but when a specific post is quoted and a point made on it then it's quite easy to understand the post being made is in relation to that and not a general statement to the masses! Which of course you know already but hey ho dinnae let that get in the way.

And you are clearly missing the point..it's nothing to do with how the pound is faring, it's the impact of that which is important. This all started as the falling pound was being used as a proxy for the sky falling down, I was merely pointing out that it can have beneficial impacts as well. Quite a simple straight forward point that you seem either unable to accept or have taken a rather inexplicable umbrage to.

As for gilts it was YOU that said the Moody downgrade would raise the cost of borrowing...I was simply pointing out that in fact the cost of government borrowing had actually FALLEN since Brexit. Feel free to quote me where I have said government borrowing costs have fallen because of the moves in sterling because I said no such thing.

Nothing selective here, merely pointing out that there is more than one side to a story and using short term market moves or the fact that sterling has fallen as evidence of how terrible a decision something has been is not always the best idea. And frequently when they are it can be based on incorrect assumptions or an incomplete appreciation of the possible impacts. Nowt wrong in that.

[Arch Stanton]

Simar, you make out that you are some kind of expert but I can only assume you are on the loony fringe of the fraternity of experts since nobody, but nobody, is coming out with the glib assurances you are making about Brexit.

Your tone is consistently snide and you home in on very selective facts in order to score debating points. This may do wonders for your ego but does nothing to further the discussion that people like myself expect from chat forums.

A good example is your statement about Gilts where you imply that they are the sum total of government borrowing. Please read the following link and tell me that Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies doesn't know what he's talking about.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36661918

One last thing (and it will be my last, promise), does your upbeat analysis hold regardless of whether we remain in the single market?

Reason being that the country has just rejected EU (freedom of movement, single market et al) and could as easily reject a single market proposal - especially if there is a big voice saying all is fine. UKIP and the right of the Tory Party are on a roll remember.

[RyeSloan]

Simar, you make out that you are some kind of expert but I can only assume you are on the loony fringe of the fraternity of experts since nobody, but nobody, is coming out with the glib assurances you are making about Brexit. Your tone is consistently snide and you home in on very selective facts in order to score debating points. This may do wonders for your ego but does nothing to further the discussion that people like myself expect from chat forums. A good example is your statement about Gilts where you imply that they are the sum total of government borrowing. Please read the following link and tell me that Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies doesn't know what he's talking about. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36661918 One last thing (and it will be my last, promise), does your upbeat analysis hold regardless of whether we remain in the single market? Reason being that the country has just rejected EU (freedom of movement, single market et al) and could as easily reject a single market proposal - especially if there is a big voice saying all is fine. UKIP and the right of the Tory Party are on a roll remember.

snide and selective? Really? Personally I see it as simply widening the debate and commenting on issues I have some interest in. I fail to see where I have been selective, feel free to point out the areas where I have failed to address points and I'll duly oblige ;-)

I'm only one person and have never claimed to be an expert on anything...there a probably billions of smarter people than me in the world but that doesn't stop me looking to understand and examine headline issues and more specifically making sure I don't just believe what is painted in the MSM and other places regarding the world of finance and economics. Sure my views don't correspond to the majority on here but so what, if anything the last couple of years has shown me is that .net is not overly representative when it comes to politics or economics so I'm not gonna stop pointing out alternative views just because others don't like them or agree with them.

As for glib assurances...again feel free to quote me where I have provided any of them. I've been quite open in stating that there will be a period of uncertainty and readjustment that could lead to all manner of impacts. The fact remains though that I believe the UK could in the long run benefit from not being in the EU, I'm making no apologies for believing that. Of course a lot of that depends on the outcome of all manner of negotiations but ultimately the UK has a flexible and well educated workforce and a large, reasonably diverse economy so I think it is well equipped to change where required to meet the demands of the future whatever they are. I also posted previously my support for immigration and free movement of labour as being some of the key pieces of the EU that I liked, there is plenty I didn't like as well so it doesn't always have to be all or nothing when looking at issues.

As for the IFS statement, he merely backs up my point. Falling gilt yields result in lower borrowing costs. Again it was you that stated the Moody's downgrade would result in higher borrowing costs, something that is clearly not always the case as there is substantially more factors to debt issuance costs than a Moody's rating. It's rather obvious that if ultimately you borrow more than you save on lower rates then the overall cost goes up, same would be true in reverse of course. Not exactly an earth shattering revelation that.

[mmmmhibby]

SiMar. I'm truly honoured to have your undivided attention. But do allow other people into the debate, as i'm sure there are many view points that people wish to express and add to the discussion. :wink:

What am seeing is Simar having a reasoned debate, the tone of some of your posts suggests otherwise at times.

[High-On-Hibs]

What am seeing is Simar having a reasoned debate, the tone of some of your posts suggests otherwise at times.

Actually, please re read my posts. I'm a relatively calm customer. I was just trying to help my friend SiMar understand that any posts he makes can be viewed by and replied to by other people. I think he gets it now. :wink: