The flaw of averages

[Viva_Palmeiras]

So a non-swimming statistician states that the average depth of a river is 3 feet. Walks into the middle and its 12 feet and drowns.

Savage explains it in more detail but iirc in one example Orange County went bust using averages for predicting future interest rates for budgeting. http://flawofaverages.com

Anyway enough about the law of averages.

We beat these guys fair and square. As Gordon Stachan alluded it was the guts and determination - he cited McGinn out on his feet as the catalyst with a couple of tackles - not stats. Gray was close to being subbed but found the energy and inspiration.

[HibbySpurs]

Doesn't have to be that complex mate....

Toss a coin and its 50/50 either way you could get 100 heads or 100 tails just as easy as a 50/50 tie because the coin has no memory of what happened the time before.

the actual outcome is likely to be around 50/50 though (although one side will probo edge it) simply because on every toss it's 50/50 which side will come up.

You're right though, nowt to do with the mythical law of averages, we won because we played better and wanted it more than our opponents....

If the law of averages was a fact we'd win our next 10 SC Finals.... Which would be nice mind....

[midfield_maestro]

Doesn't have to be that complex mate....

Toss a coin and its 50/50 either way you could get 100 heads or 100 tails just as easy as a 50/50 tie because the coin has no memory of what happened the time before.

the actual outcome is likely to be around 50/50 though (although one side will probo edge it) simply because on every toss it's 50/50 which side will come up.

You're right though, nowt to do with the mythical law of averages, we won because we played better and wanted it more than our opponents....

If the law of averages was a fact we'd win our next 10 SC Finals.... Which would be nice mind....

Although the outcome is 1:2 on each coin toss, the chance of getting, say, 10 heads in a row is not 1:2. It is 1/2 * 1/2 *1/2 *1/2 *1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1:1024